NFT: Get your tin foil ready: 60 Minutes airing UFO/UAP segment

are three questions:

(1) What is the likelihood that other life exists in the galaxy? Very high, as the linked video explains.

(2) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life exists in the galaxy? Much lower.

(3) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life has visited Earth? Lower still, although there is the "Fermi paradox."

Link - ( New Window )

In comment 15262313 AcidTest said:

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are three questions: (1) What is the likelihood that other life exists in the galaxy? Very high, as the linked video explains. (2) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life exists in the galaxy? Much lower. (3) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life has visited Earth? Lower still, although there is the "Fermi paradox." Link - ( New Window )

Re: 3 I think there is a higher chance of being visited by drones/probes. You're right, earth and our sun are relatively remote and unimpressive in galactic terms. But if a species could do what it takes to reach interstellar travel, an unending spray of unmanned probes to the far reaches would likely follow.

these are time travelers from our distant past or distant future. I think physics has shown that time can be manipulated, it's far less plausible for 'visitors' or probes to travel at speeds greater than light from distant worlds.

(1) What is the likelihood that other life exists in the galaxy?

I agree 100%. There may even be "independent origins of life" in our own solar system (Mars, Europa, Titan, Enceladus etc.). Single cell life is likely commonplace IMHO.


(2) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life exists in the galaxy?

This leaps over the next hurdle; multi-celled life. Given we have only one example, it's really hard to know how often / how long single celled life evolves into multi-celled life.

Intelligent life is another big leap over multi-cellar life. I think the evolution to intelligent life likely requires a a really long time (many hundreds of millions to billions of years) of a very stable environment. We had this on Earth. The Solar System is located in the "Galactic Suburbs"; less density of stars equals stability. We have a nice, stable G star. We have two large gas giants in Jupiter and critically Saturn too. The Earth is of sufficient mass to have a large, molten iron core for a strong magnetic field and also has a relatively large Moon which stabilizes Earth's tilt etc.

Another step is whether the intelligent life is "technological". Dolphins and whales may be very intelligent, but I don't see them building any radio telescopes or spacecraft any time soon.

(3) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life has visited Earth?

Given the age of the Milky Way and our one data point (Earth), there is sufficient time of a technological civilization to evolve. It is entirely possible that a Solar System very similar to our own is a billion or more years older than ours. We can't even fathom technology a 100 years more advanced than we are now. A million years? A billion years? Anything is possible.

The question that isn't asked often is "Are we interesting enough to visit?"

Life, even intelligent life, can be detected by analyzing the contents of our atmosphere and likely detected hundreds if not thousands of light years away. Does a "barely space faring species" warrant traveling many dozen, hundreds or thousands of light years to visit?

Also, do we believe an extraterrestrial species capable of traveling between the stars would be incapable of staying hidden from our view / detection?

I don't think they'd travel hundred of light years to "just mess with us".

:-)

In comment 15262349 BamaBlue said:

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these are time travelers from our distant past or distant future. I think physics has shown that time can be manipulated, it's far less plausible for 'visitors' or probes to travel at speeds greater than light from distant worlds.

I dunno, i think thats a possibility. However another intelligent species could have millions of years of evolution and technology beyond what we have, hundreds of millions even.

I expect our understanding of physics is likely pretty immature at this point, again compared to a civilization that could have been around for millions of years trying to solve these problems.

In comment 15262202 JayBinQueens said:

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In comment 15262198 UConn4523 said: Quote: In comment 15262176 Payasdaddy said: Quote: Asking for a friend Seriously, wish they throw Sasquatch in the mix too I love this stuff And if u told me tomorrow about definitive proof of intelligent alien life tomorrow, would not be even phased Zillions of planets and yet us human locusts are the only ones out there Basically how I feel. Don’t care one way or another if they exist and if I ever did find out definitively I’d be pretty unphased. I assume you mean if you found out they existed in general, not if they landed their ship nearby

Unless it crashed into my house I don’t think I’d care.

In comment 15262277 Trainmaster said:

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The jump from an Unidentified Flying Object to something piloted by little green men from a distant solar system is gigantic. A UFO can simply be something a person is unfamiliar with. The very bright planet Venus, when it appears as an "Evening Star" about every 1.5 years, is often reported as a UFO by folks unfamiliar with looking at the night sky. I just don't think the gov't is competent enough to pull off hiding evidence of extraterrestrials. I'm sure there are lots of experimental aircraft and spacecraft that move very differently than commercial and general aviation aircraft. Reports by civilian and military pilots of objects which appear very unusual to them are curious. But again, where is clear evidence to meet the "Sagan Standard"? I don't think there is any that I'm aware of.

Sure we have experimental craft, but we don't have things that can turn on a dime at supersonic speeds. We don't even have material that could withstand the g-forces of that.


Are we at the "Sagan Standard" yet? No, but doesn't mean there aren't clear unanswered questions here and also a demonstration of technology that is... impossible.

That we're insignificant nothings, and if they do exist they wouldn't even care about us. We're so below them that what's the point in bothering to communicate?

However, I also think it's possible if they exist they are not as advanced as our science fiction makes them out to be and they're in the same boat as us. Out there somewhere with no knowledge of us and no way to get to us anyway.

In comment 15262358 Trainmaster said:

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(1) What is the likelihood that other life exists in the galaxy? I agree 100%. There may even be "independent origins of life" in our own solar system (Mars, Europa, Titan, Enceladus etc.). Single cell life is likely commonplace IMHO. (2) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life exists in the galaxy? This leaps over the next hurdle; multi-celled life. Given we have only one example, it's really hard to know how often / how long single celled life evolves into multi-celled life. Intelligent life is another big leap over multi-cellar life. I think the evolution to intelligent life likely requires a a really long time (many hundreds of millions to billions of years) of a very stable environment. We had this on Earth. The Solar System is located in the "Galactic Suburbs"; less density of stars equals stability. We have a nice, stable G star. We have two large gas giants in Jupiter and critically Saturn too. The Earth is of sufficient mass to have a large, molten iron core for a strong magnetic field and also has a relatively large Moon which stabilizes Earth's tilt etc. Another step is whether the intelligent life is "technological". Dolphins and whales may be very intelligent, but I don't see them building any radio telescopes or spacecraft any time soon. (3) What is the likelihood that other intelligent life has visited Earth? Given the age of the Milky Way and our one data point (Earth), there is sufficient time of a technological civilization to evolve. It is entirely possible that a Solar System very similar to our own is a billion or more years older than ours. We can't even fathom technology a 100 years more advanced than we are now. A million years? A billion years? Anything is possible. The question that isn't asked often is "Are we interesting enough to visit?" Life, even intelligent life, can be detected by analyzing the contents of our atmosphere and likely detected hundreds if not thousands of light years away. Does a "barely space faring species" warrant traveling many dozen, hundreds or thousands of light years to visit? Also, do we believe an extraterrestrial species capable of traveling between the stars would be incapable of staying hidden from our view / detection? I don't think they'd travel hundred of light years to "just mess with us". :-)

You make a lot of great points.

Unicellular life doesn’t guarantee multicellular life. Unicellular life arose sometime between 4.1 and 3.5 billion years ago. Multicellular life arose just 600 million years ago.

G type stars make up about 7.6% of all the stars in the galaxy. F and K stars make up 3% and 12.1% of all stars. These are really the only types of starts that might have planets capable of supporting life.

Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus have likely shielded the Earth from at least some bombardments that might have prevented the development of intelligent life.

We might well not be interesting enough to visit, especially if an extraterrestrial species is thousands of light years away. But they may have found a way to shorten the trip, perhaps by using wormholes or somehow circumventing the light speed barrier. They might also be motivated to travel if intelligent life is extremely rare.

Extraterrestrials that can visit Earth certainly have the capability of hiding from us. But part of their desire to observe and study us may at least occasionally include deliberately revealing themselves in order to test our reaction and response.

In comment 15262371 moespree said:

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That we're insignificant nothings

I think we would be to a civilization so advanced that they could visit us. They would look at us like we look at bugs and push us out of the way.
I certainly don't think we've been visited since the visitors would take what they want and leave - or worse.

Is there life? Oh, most certainly and most certainly some more advanced then we are but they didn't come in these UFO/UAP's

Excellent point.

Maybe some Von Neumann machines / probes:

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A von Neumann probe is a spacecraft capable of replicating itself.[7] It is a concatenation of two concepts: a "Von Neumann universal constructor" (self-replicating machine) and a probe (an instrument to explore or examine something). The concept is named after Hungarian American mathematician and physicist John von Neumann, who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called "Universal Assemblers" and which are often referred to as "von Neumann machines".[8] Such constructs could be theorised to comprise five basic components (variations of this template could create other machines such as Bracewell probes): -Probe: which would contain the actual probing instruments & goal-directed AI to guide the construct. -Life-support systems: mechanisms to repair and maintain the construct. -Factory: mechanisms to harvest resources & replicate itself. -Memory banks: store programs for all its components & information gained by the probe. -Engine: motor to move the probe.

Wiki: Self-replicating spacecraft - ( New Window )

and reveal itself like in the movie Signs during the kids birthday party.

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What I am not sure I fully buy is the idea that they have mastered space travel, have located Earth and identified that they want to visit/study it, and also have tried (somewhat unsuccessfully) to hide their presence from us.

I think a species who is that advanced and scientifically curious is probably not being primarily detected by drunken wackos with shaky cameras.

And I also agree that if the government had credible evidence of their existence, it would have been leaked so many times it would have just been made public.

Without giving too much of the books away, I can't help but wonder if we were being visited/observed that it would only be for purposes of making sure we never reach certain technological milestones.

Not to worry. Unfortunately, this is where we're headed:

Aluminum foil doesn’t work. You need to hunt down foil that’s actually made of tin.

Advocating the EXISTENCE of Martians, or Big Foot, or the Loch Ness Monster, Yeti, UFOs, ETs, Godzilla, etc., is worth a fortune if done right.

Nobody will offer you a dime to DISPROVE any of it.

Looks like one of the best "disprovers" just passed away recently:

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James Randi (born Randall James Hamilton Zwinge; August 7, 1928 – October 20, 2020) was a Canadian-American stage magician[3][4][5] and scientific skeptic[6][7][8] who extensively challenged paranormal and pseudoscientific claims.[9] He was the co-founder of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI), and founder of the James Randi Educational Foundation (JREF). Randi began his career as a magician under the stage name The Amazing Randi and later chose to devote most of his time to investigating paranormal, occult, and supernatural claims, which he collectively called "woo-woo".[10] Randi retired from practicing magic at age 60, and from his foundation at 87.

James Randi - ( New Window )

In comment 15262398 Mike from Ohio said:

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I think a species who is that advanced and scientifically curious is probably not being primarily detected by drunken wackos with shaky cameras.

Have you seen the videos of UFOs taken by fighter jets, with radar evidence and multiple highly reliable witnesses, doing things that cannot be done?

“Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us.”

was referred to as having played for the University of Mars.

That's because Otis Sistrunk never played college football, so Cosell came up with "University Of Mars".

So that means extraterrestrials?

Sagan Standard, Occam's Razor etc..

In comment 15262501 Trainmaster said:

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So that means extraterrestrials? Sagan Standard, Occam's Razor etc..

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

love that Arthur C. Clarke quote and it's true.

I'm not sure "stuff going really fast and turning quickly" equals magic.

And have been waiting for this announcement. Was confirmed by Christopher Melon earlier today. Hopefully they do this topic justice because anyone who does their due diligence will know there's something going on beyond our current understanding. At the very least they should be exposing the obvious coverups that have gone on for decades.

just show me some real, irrefutable evidence and I'm all over it.

I'd LOVE to know that apparently benevolent extra terrestrials are visiting the Earth. Think of all the scientific questions we have that they could answer.

Think about an completely alien biology. Culture etc.

But without real evidence, this is in the same camp as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy.

Even though that kind of speculation will obviously follow.

Officially confirmed encounters, the physics-defying performance, and how seriously the US government is taking all of this now in a very public way. Our government says it's not ours. What is the benefit of lying or talking about it at all for that matter?

I have not seen the evidence yet but I am generally not in the school of it must be this because I can’t think of anything else it could be. When I was young, I read a book called Chariots of the Gods which used that sort of non scientist logic to prove their hypothesis. Many believed that book but izi I found it laughable on how they “proved” things.

I need to see hard evidence to believe.

I like Astronomy, and I spend a lot of time looking at the night sky. I have never seen anything remotely resembling a UFO. But that's just me.

The odds favor intelligent life in the universe beyond our own galaxy. Each point of light you see in the night sky is a sun with many planets orbiting around it. Some of those planets may have the correct balance of elements for creating life. And nurturing that life to the point where they develop Interstellar Travel.

But I can't imagine any sentient being speeding through Space and Time, covering thousands of Light Years in a single bound.....only to shadow a jet airliner ?!?!?

Or hovering around the Roswell desert ?!?!?!?

In comment 15262514 Trainmaster said:

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love that Arthur C. Clarke quote and it's true. I'm not sure "stuff going really fast and turning quickly" equals magic.

It equals something neither revealed nor explained.

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and over time I've come to the conclusion that Earth is in no way ready for "First Contact" with an alien civilization capable of long-range space travel. We shouldn't seek it, shouldn't hope for it, and should be terrified of the possibility.

The history of technologically superior civilizations interacting with technologically inferior ones is pretty much universally a record of mass death and/or disruption of the inferior one. Japan chose disruption over death and did rapid modernization. That looked great until WWII — and there are still traditionalists who think it was a mistake. Other civilizations that didn't embrace rapid disruption and change were always decimated.

If any extra-terrestrial civilization has made first contact with world leaders, the leaders are probably right to keep it secret. And if they've basically told the ETs to hide themselves and keep their distance, they're 100% right. But that only puts us in the same situation as Japan before Americans decided to sail in and open up the country.

It's weird to love the science fantasy stories and at the same time think it would be utterly disastrous for them to become real.

In comment 15262193 widmerseyebrow said:

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In comment 15262170 Trainmaster said: Quote: will be on full display: It depends on what you say the claim is. Right now it's UFOs/UAPs with extraordinary movement capabilities exist and there's plenty of evidence to support that claim.

"Plenty" of evidence doesn't necessarily even add up to good evidence, let alone extraordinary evidence.

Right now the only claim that is strongly supported is that UFOs/UAPs exist, and that's only using the literal definitions that we're not 100% sure what they are. But there are much better explanations for what the probably are than aliens or even craft with extraordinary movement capabilities.

For some explanations of some of that popular footage that's out there, I recommend taking a look at Mick West's stuff on youtube and on his site metabunk.org
https://www.metabunk.org/home/ - ( New Window )

Conceptually you don’t have to look much further than what humans are doing on Mars, to hypothesize how a distant civilization might approach Earth.

It’s pretty logical to assume the first contacts from distant civilizations will be observational, and then exploratory interactions with uninhabited technology.

So assuming some distant civilization has the technology to travel many hundreds of light years, and they are dipping their toes into our world, their tech is probably really fast, advanced, and hard for us to observe.

And just like what we’re doing on Mars, not hard to imagine a few of their tries end up crashing and burning.

"Fads and Fallacies". His chapter on UFO's gives the essential history. Silver Navy weather and spy balloons, launched after WW2, looked saucer-shaped from the ground and darted around haphazardly. Differences in air temperature at certain altitudes acted as mirrors and the images of these balloons would bounce from one side of a plane to another, enough to fool even experienced pilots. At times the Navy would lose track of a balloon and find it by following saucer sightings in local newspapers. Needless to say, Gardner doubted the existence of visitors from other planets.

60 minutes will selectively and deceptively edit the footage and content to meet their narrative.

In comment 15262309 widmerseyebrow said:

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In comment 15262277 Trainmaster said: Quote: The jump from an Unidentified Flying Object to something piloted by little green men from a distant solar system is gigantic. A UFO can simply be something a person is unfamiliar with. The very bright planet Venus, when it appears as an "Evening Star" about every 1.5 years, is often reported as a UFO by folks unfamiliar with looking at the night sky. I just don't think the gov't is competent enough to pull off hiding evidence of extraterrestrials. I'm sure there are lots of experimental aircraft and spacecraft that move very differently than commercial and general aviation aircraft. Reports by civilian and military pilots of objects which appear very unusual to them are curious. But again, where is clear evidence to meet the "Sagan Standard"? I don't think there is any that I'm aware of. I didn't mention little green men in my OP. The point is everyone can leave aliens completely out of it and come away with some pretty alarming realities. If you read about the Nimitz or other encounters that our own government have confirmed as authentic, you're talking about craft that defy physics as we know it. And that goes beyond what the pilots see with their eyes, we're talking about video of our most advanced aerial tracking technology. I suppose you could demand to fly in one before you believe anything, but by that standard most people could claim the F-22 isn't real. Personally I'd be hoping it is aliens before the Chinese or Russians.

If there's alien craft, doesn't there have to be aliens?

And like it or not, you can sit in an F-22 and see close up, detailed photos of them. Can you see comparable close-ups of these alien crafts?

In comment 15262540 widmerseyebrow said:

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Even though that kind of speculation will obviously follow. Officially confirmed encounters, the physics-defying performance, and how seriously the US government is taking all of this now in a very public way. Our government says it's not ours. What is the benefit of lying or talking about it at all for that matter?

Or the government just wants to distract the masses from their own incompetence.

Unless this is the one secret the President doesn't get to know about, there's no way the previous administration wouldn't have released any hard evidence.

In comment 15262594 Named Later said:

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I like Astronomy, and I spend a lot of time looking at the night sky. I have never seen anything remotely resembling a UFO. But that's just me. The odds favor intelligent life in the universe beyond our own galaxy. Each point of light you see in the night sky is a sun with many planets orbiting around it. Some of those planets may have the correct balance of elements for creating life. And nurturing that life to the point where they develop Interstellar Travel. But I can't imagine any sentient being speeding through Space and Time, covering thousands of Light Years in a single bound.....only to shadow a jet airliner ?!?!? Or hovering around the Roswell desert ?!?!?!?

Beings that intelligent might be wondering why we 'nuked' ourselves! :-D

In comment 15262761 christian said:

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Conceptually you don’t have to look much further than what humans are doing on Mars, to hypothesize how a distant civilization might approach Earth. It’s pretty logical to assume the first contacts from distant civilizations will be observational, and then exploratory interactions with uninhabited technology. So assuming some distant civilization has the technology to travel many hundreds of light years, and they are dipping their toes into our world, their tech is probably really fast, advanced, and hard for us to observe. And just like what we’re doing on Mars, not hard to imagine a few of their tries end up crashing and burning.

One big exception there is that Mars is literally the first planet we've ever explored. And we've gotten substantially better with each probe with the most recent being by far the most advanced landing (and a near perfect success). I imagine a civilization sending probes thousands (millions) of light years across the galaxy (Universe) would've landed hundreds (thousands) of probes on nearer planets prior.

we need something else to be afraid of.

In comment 15262138 Jints in Carolina said:

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I miss his UFO posts ...

What happened to GiantFilthy? He was also around here for a long time and a popular poster and then the crickets started. If they changed their handles or posted drunk and were band and decided to not come back for whatever reasons - that is fine.

I just hope they are okay physically/emotionally and nobody got hurt (or worse?).

In comment 15262501 Trainmaster said:

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So that means extraterrestrials? Sagan Standard, Occam's Razor etc..

Where did i say that?

on the subject, check out series like Fringe, and now, Debris, by the same folks. also, admittedly silly, but raising intriguing concepts, are the Stargate series. time, space, multi dimensions, genetics, afterlife, quantum physics are all concepts we know less about than we think.
there are also now three schools of thought on our origins; evolution, creationism, and intervention.

That hypothesized it's almost statistically impossible to locate us no matter how advanced your technology is.

The basic point was there as many as 300 million potentially habitable planets in our galaxy alone. That's not even counting all the other galaxies we know about, and those we don't.

So the main hypothesis of the book was even if a super advanced intelligent species out there exists with technology we can't even fathom, finding us would be like trying to find one very specific single grain of sand on earth. Therefore it would be nearly impossible to even locate earth even if they spent millenniums trying.

In comment 15263376 moespree said:

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That hypothesized it's almost statistically impossible to locate us no matter how advanced your technology is. The basic point was there as many as 300 million potentially habitable planets in our galaxy alone. That's not even counting all the other galaxies we know about, and those we don't. So the main hypothesis of the book was even if a super advanced intelligent species out there exists with technology we can't even fathom, finding us would be like trying to find one very specific single grain of sand on earth. Therefore it would be nearly impossible to even locate earth even if they spent millenniums trying.

I mean that's based on what we barely know about physics, time travel, etc etc.

I believe this poster had it correct with Carl Sagan's advice. I'm not too convinced it's aliens until we can completely disprove it isn't some natural phenomena even. We have some eye witness accounts (always sketch) and things that popped up on the radar. These phenomenons are certainly happening, but definitely not at the point where anything conclusive can even be hypothesized.

(60 Minutes, Today Show, Shepherd Smith) ahead of a report due to Congress next month.
Link - ( New Window )