If you have seen any TV discussions on the New York Giants in the last few weeks, almost universally the same argument is made by every pundit:
"The Giants have done everything to surround Daniel Jones with talent. He is out of excuses. The fate of the team rests with him."
Then many of these same pundits use this as an opportunity to say they don't believe in Daniel Jones and that's why the Giants won't finish first in the NFC East.
While I do think there is a great deal of merit in what they say about how important QB play will be in determining the fate of the Giants, I'm surprised that none of these media discussions have addressed the elephant in the room:
For better or worse, the Giants did very little this offseason in addressing the offensive line, the well-known Achilles heel of the team for the past decade.
Kevin Zeitler was let go. Zach Fulton was added in free agency. Nate Solder returns as insurance depth. Jonotthan Harrison replaces Spencer Pulley as back-up center.
In other words, not much changed. As has been discussed nauseam on BBI, Gettleman and Judge are putting their faith in the new OL coaching (Rob Sale and Pat Flaherty) and the development of the young guys (Thomas, Lemieux, Gates, Peart, and even Hernandez).
But this argument that it is "all on Daniel Jones" doesn't address the fact that the franchise is taking a big gamble by standing pat on the OL. Now I'm optimistic about the OL, but if they don't make a big jump in their play, this offense is still going to have major issues. It won't be as bad as it was last year because the upgrade in the other skill positions has been so dramatic, but the OL still needs to keep Jones upright and open holes for Barkley and the other new running backs.
I just find it extremely odd that every pundit keeps saying, "it's all on Daniel Jones." I would argue, "much depends on Jones and the offensive line."
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considering fans care about winning more than statistics, who gives a fuck what they expect from a stat standpoint?
Do fans even know what stats or metrics are important anyway? We still have a poster who uses AY/A continually here to apply to a QB where football people use it to measure offensive efficiency.
I can say Jones needs to have 30 TD's this year, but what the fuck does it matter if he throws 26TD's and the team makes the playoffs. Or that he throws 40TD's and we miss the playoffs?
40 TDs and missing the playoffs would be quite fine for some..It’s the Stats, Fats.
I already addressed this back in February here. Winning and making the playoffs in the NFL is about throwing the ball to score points.
On a separate note, I find it interesting that FMIC, Britt, and others tell us not to care about Jones's stats as long as he wins...but on the other hand they tell us how awesome Barkley's 2000 yards in 2018 were in a season when the Giants went 5-11.
I have to come around to the idea that there are fans here that just want to talk about how awesome the Giants are. There's nothing wrong with that.
Patience is overrated for QBs in today's NFL. That's just the way it is. College prospects are coming into the league more ready than ever to hit the ground running. The league is just littered with examples.
So, indeed, I am guilty of wanting Jones to perform similarly...
You know how many team's QB's made the postseason last year without throwing 30TD's??
7 of them. Half the teams in the postseason.
30 TD's is such an arbitrary number, but it gets thrown around as a metric for successful.
You'll know when Jones is successful by watching the Giants play and whether they are winning games and whether he is a part of that.
Throwing out 30 TD's as making or breaking him is dumb.
As FMiC said, if he throws 26 TD's and the Giants win 11 games, is he a loser?
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In comment 15271681 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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considering fans care about winning more than statistics, who gives a fuck what they expect from a stat standpoint?
Do fans even know what stats or metrics are important anyway? We still have a poster who uses AY/A continually here to apply to a QB where football people use it to measure offensive efficiency.
I can say Jones needs to have 30 TD's this year, but what the fuck does it matter if he throws 26TD's and the team makes the playoffs. Or that he throws 40TD's and we miss the playoffs?
40 TDs and missing the playoffs would be quite fine for some..It’s the Stats, Fats.
I already addressed this back in February here. Winning and making the playoffs in the NFL is about throwing the ball to score points.
On a separate note, I find it interesting that FMIC, Britt, and others tell us not to care about Jones's stats as long as he wins...but on the other hand they tell us how awesome Barkley's 2000 yards in 2018 were in a season when the Giants went 5-11.
I have to come around to the idea that there are fans here that just want to talk about how awesome the Giants are. There's nothing wrong with that.
I don't tell you how awesome Barkley's stats were. I point to them to refute the ridiculous takes on him. You know the ones that say you can't win with stats that he put up, and other assorted bullshit.
When I start a thread talking about how great Barkley's stats are, let me know. I reserve comments on stats for the daily hot takes about how shitty he and Jones are
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In comment 15271681 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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considering fans care about winning more than statistics, who gives a fuck what they expect from a stat standpoint?
Do fans even know what stats or metrics are important anyway? We still have a poster who uses AY/A continually here to apply to a QB where football people use it to measure offensive efficiency.
I can say Jones needs to have 30 TD's this year, but what the fuck does it matter if he throws 26TD's and the team makes the playoffs. Or that he throws 40TD's and we miss the playoffs?
40 TDs and missing the playoffs would be quite fine for some..It’s the Stats, Fats.
I already addressed this back in February here. Winning and making the playoffs in the NFL is about throwing the ball to score points.
On a separate note, I find it interesting that FMIC, Britt, and others tell us not to care about Jones's stats as long as he wins...but on the other hand they tell us how awesome Barkley's 2000 yards in 2018 were in a season when the Giants went 5-11.
I have to come around to the idea that there are fans here that just want to talk about how awesome the Giants are. There's nothing wrong with that.
but on the other hand they tell us how awesome Barkley's 2000 yards in 2018 were in a season when the Giants went 5-11.
Oh please, it’s pointed out ONLY in the context that he was a smart, generational pick and he did something very, very few RBs have ever done.
Barkley had 2000 yards and 15 TD's but it was worthless because we were 6-10
Meanwhile, Herbert had 30 TD's and hit your magical number but the Chargers were only 7-9.
That's why your magical number of 30 is bullsh-t.
You know how many team's QB's made the postseason last year without throwing 30TD's??
7 of them. Half the teams in the postseason.
So half of them did.
And to add context, because you won't, one was LJax, who is an uncanny runnner, and Brees, who missed 4 games and would have easily blown by 30TDs.
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you did the math, Ace??
You know how many team's QB's made the postseason last year without throwing 30TD's??
7 of them. Half the teams in the postseason.
So half of them did.
And to add context, because you won't, one was LJax, who is an uncanny runnner, and Brees, who missed 4 games and would have easily blown by 30TDs.
Great Then explain 2019 when only 4 QB's total threw for 30 TD's??
The point has been and remains that the 30TD metric is just complete horseshit.
Funny you ask for context now when context usually doesn't have a place in your mind when talking about Jones.
30 TD's is such an arbitrary number, but it gets thrown around as a metric for successful.
Throwing out 30 TD's as making or breaking him is dumb.
It's not arbitrary at all. Further, it's based on 17 games, not 16. Plus, the addition of more toys for Jones. You do realize 11 QBs threw for 30TDs last year, right? And Brees would have been #12 if he didn't get hurt for four games.
And, again, it's based on trying to get to at least 24PPG to qualify for the playoffs.
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30 TD's is such an arbitrary number, but it gets thrown around as a metric for successful.
Throwing out 30 TD's as making or breaking him is dumb.
It's not arbitrary at all. Further, it's based on 17 games, not 16. Plus, the addition of more toys for Jones. You do realize 11 QBs threw for 30TDs last year, right? And Brees would have been #12 if he didn't get hurt for four games.
And, again, it's based on trying to get to at least 24PPG to qualify for the playoffs.
BS. You were throwing out that 30 TD number WAY before the league moved to 17 games.
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We've been through this before.
MOST, not many, MOST 1st round QB's end up busting.
If Jones becomes a starting QB in the NFL for a significant amount of time for this franchise (and yes, that means above average and significant contributer), then he has beaten the odds.
You keep banging this 6th overall pick drum, and expectations tied to being the 6th overall pick like it's the #1 overall pick or something.
You talk about tempering expectations and then turn around and heap unrealistic expectations onto Jones because he was drafted 6th.
You do realize the 6th pick in the draft is only five spots away from the #1 pick. Right?
How, exactly, have my expectations been unreasonable? I'm all ears on this one.
For '21, for example, I did basic math based on where we likely need to be if we want to qualify for the playoffs, based on PPG the last three years, and Jones, as the QB, should be expected to throw at least 30TDs passes. From there, I expect at least a 65% completion %, 2:1 TD/INT ratio and a YPA of at least 7.3 (using the rest of the league to find a benchmark).
These aren't Mahomes, Rodgers, or Wilson levels. They are in fact reasonable. And more reasonable than most on this board.
Unreasonable...just LOFL.
Must we list all the #1 overall QBs who were busts. I don't think we have time to name all the top 5 who didn't make it
Great Then explain 2019 when only 4 QB's total threw for 30 TD's??
The point has been and remains that the 30TD metric is just complete horseshit.
Funny you ask for context now when context usually doesn't have a place in your mind when talking about Jones.
Well, I looked at 2018 as well. And in 2018, I believe 7 QBs who made the playoffs threw for at least 30TDs. And Brady had 29.
Plus, as I said to Britt, there are now 17 games in '21. Which should make getting to 30 TDs even more resonable.
BS. You were throwing out that 30 TD number WAY before the league moved to 17 games.
For '21? Uh - no.
Must we list all the #1 overall QBs who were busts. I don't think we have time to name all the top 5 who didn't make it
I'm not sure I understand your point. So we should feel good if Jones fails because there is a 50%+ bust rate?
And therefore misery loves company...?!?
Hmmm. What an unreasonable ask for a guy who just got, per many, a new #1 WR, a new first round WR, a new, seasoned TE, and SB, a good receiving RB, coming back from injury.
JFC.
All it does is continue the merry-go-round on these threads which can't really be taken seriously. I've lost track of what anyone is even arguing anymore.
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Must we list all the #1 overall QBs who were busts. I don't think we have time to name all the top 5 who didn't make it
I'm not sure I understand your point. So we should feel good if Jones fails because there is a 50%+ bust rate?
And therefore misery loves company...?!?
no because you're so wedded to your Jones sucks narrative that you can see anything else, or you lack reading comprehension skills. YOU said this:
"You do realize the 6th pick in the draft is only five spots away from the #1 pick. Right?
How, exactly, have my expectations been unreasonable? I'm all ears on this one."
As if high picks ALWAYS have to work out. Many times they don't. And to Eric's point, much of the Jones comments here are just nonsensical bashing. Yes he has things to clean up, but has shown that he can play.
I'm wedded to the fact that he's been average, at best thus far, and he needs to get considerably better and live up to his expectations.
Fine. But both Cousins and Watson, especially, have pretty beefy resumes to fall back on.
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BS. You were throwing out that 30 TD number WAY before the league moved to 17 games.
For '21? Uh - no.
The league announced it was moving to a 17 games season on March 31st. About two months ago.
You're saying that you NEVER threw out that 30 TD number as a barometer prior to knowing it was moving to 17 games?
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BS. You were throwing out that 30 TD number WAY before the league moved to 17 games.
For '21? Uh - no.
LOL. Just a quick scan of the archives shows you saying in January that Jones needs to throw 30TD's.
Is it anything more than just obvious trolling at this point?
Because it's a new ballgame in '21, right?
At the time, I thought that one of the worst personnel moves in the last decade was the Bears trading up in 2017 for Mitchell Trubisky. But in his second year, Trubisky made the pro bowl and led the Bears to the NFC Central title with a 12-4 record. And through his four years with the Bears, he led them to a 29-21 (58%) record, was 64-37 TD/INT (1.7 ratio) and had a 64% completion percentage.
I would bet that most people here would be thrilled if DJ can lead the Giants in 2021 to the playoffs with ten wins while achieving this personal stat line. And yet, I would also bet that most on this site think the Bears made exactly the right decision in drafting Fields and moving on from Trubisky.
All that said, I think it is absolutely fair to have certain expectations for him based on being a #6 pick.
Geez.
Is there really a huge difference expecting Jones to deliver 30 TDs over 17 games as opposed to 16 games?
Jones produced total 26 TDs, 161 first total first downs, accounted for 23 turnovers
You look at a player like Jameis Winston who lost his job following 2019 -- he produced 31 TDs, 261 first downs, and accounted for 35 turnovers.
Players who turnover the ball a lot are generally viewed as not outweighing the risk. If Jones continues to turn the ball over more than he scores, he's going to lose his job.
Jones followed up his 2019 campaign but producing 12 total TDs, and accounting 16 turnovers.
He incontrovertibly needs to improve this to be a good a quarterback.
Is there really a huge difference expecting Jones to deliver 30 TDs over 17 games as opposed to 16 games?
Does it have to be pointed out that 4 QB's threw for over 30 TD's two years ago? I'm pretty sure there were more than 4 playoff teams, but I don't want to fuckup your in-depth math calculations there, Sheldon.
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a quarterback, it is what it is. They want immediate results because they saw Justin Herbert have some awesome games as a rookie and it makes them sad. We have to move along and hope DJ makes a big jump this year, which he absolutely can
Patience is overrated for QBs in today's NFL. That's just the way it is. College prospects are coming into the league more ready than ever to hit the ground running. The league is just littered with examples.
So, indeed, I am guilty of wanting Jones to perform similarly...
When it comes to the expectations for high draft picks to perform immediately, the NFL is behind only the NBA. With CFB being the defacto minor league, and the NFL and CFB games being closer than ever before, patience for development is only going to decrease across the league.
LOL. Just a quick scan of the archives shows you saying in January that Jones needs to throw 30TD's.
Is it anything more than just obvious trolling at this point?
Let me get this straight - it's "trolling" expecting Jones to throw 30 TD passes, either over 16 games or 17 games.
Each simple division exercise using either 16 or 17 games as the denominator results in LESS than 2 TDs per game.
Again, what a burdensome ask...
What a "troll"...
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I really don't remember when I started to factor in the 17th game. But it seemed a forgone conclusion that the owners were going to move forward once the players voted last year.
Is there really a huge difference expecting Jones to deliver 30 TDs over 17 games as opposed to 16 games?
Does it have to be pointed out that 4 QB's threw for over 30 TD's two years ago? I'm pretty sure there were more than 4 playoff teams, but I don't want to fuckup your in-depth math calculations there, Sheldon.
And for the second time, in 2018, half the QBs in the playoffs threw for 30TDs, and Brady threw for 29.
Isn't that what your math says, Euclid?
Frankly, I actually don't mind those who are super-optimistic about Jones going forward. If they see something - real or imagined - that gets them excited, so be it. I just haven't seen enough yet to hitch my wagon to. Or a strong enough case to change my mind. So I have a healthy amount of skepticism.
What bothers me the most, however, is how many suppress the expectations for Jones. I've said it so many times that I have to be on the verge of carpal tunnel syndrome, but there are a core of posters who make it seem like Jones was a 6th round pick, not the 6th overall pick. So they give him a lot of slack for performance. And I just can't subscribe to that because my expectations are that the 6th pick needs to be a legit difference maker and overcome obstacles. Not a player who needs all of this top talent around him to possibly get him to shine.
So that's why I constantly ask what are the expectation for Jones? Give me some idea where he should be statistically. And the most will punt on that and say it's just important that we win and not totally focus on Jones's output. Which is such a copout for the 6th pick in the draft...
I would feel the same if he were a 6th RD pick. As long as the coaching staff believes that he is the guy to do this, the draft position is meaningless.
It is worthy of discussion but completely inconsequential as to the expectations for a starting QB.
He's the QB, we should expect him to lead the team to victory.
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LOL. Just a quick scan of the archives shows you saying in January that Jones needs to throw 30TD's.
Is it anything more than just obvious trolling at this point?
Let me get this straight - it's "trolling" expecting Jones to throw 30 TD passes, either over 16 games or 17 games.
Each simple division exercise using either 16 or 17 games as the denominator results in LESS than 2 TDs per game.
Again, what a burdensome ask...
What a "troll"...
It's arbitrary. Why is 30 the barometer?
If Daniel Jones throws 30 TD's next year but the Giants are 7-9 (like Herbert this past year with the Chargers), then what will the new barometer be? Because the bullseye will certainly still be on Jones for the record.
It's because of Euler's math!!
Isn't that what your math says, Euclid?
No, it's a reasonable ask in a league set up to encourage passing to score points. Especially for a high draft pick.
Each simple division exercise using either 16 or 17 games as the denominator results in LESS than 2 TDs per game.
Again, what a burdensome ask...
What a "troll"...
I think the more interesting question (one I doubt you’ll get an answer to) — is what are the measures you think would keep Jones from keeping his job beyond 2021?
This of course requires taking a stance and generating an opinion.
Which is exactly the flipside of the argument I make about a reasonable expectation for Jones to KEEP his job next year, which would be:
Jones DOES show improvement, the team has a winning record and is competing for the playoffs, and Jones is contributing to that.
Oh... Did you want a number or some sort?
Based on years 1 and 2, and based on his play at Duke, there's no reason to think that will happen.
Ohh and we have 2 firsts next year which may not have happened if we didn’t make some of these FA signings and instead stuck to 11 to “reach”. Even better is we can potentially fill 2 holes next year on the first round and won’t need to be part of the FA frenzy.
It is the only reasonable answer.
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Strong stance there Britt! Way to really put yourself out there.
It is the only reasonable answer.
How do you measure if Jones is showing improvement?
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In comment 15271821 christian said:
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Strong stance there Britt! Way to really put yourself out there.
It is the only reasonable answer.
How do you measure if Jones is showing improvement?
He cuts down on the Fumbles. He has a decent TD/IN ratio. He's making plays with his legs, and passing efficiently. He makes a couple of clutch throws in big spots.
I would argue yes because it is clear that his ceiling is too low to legitimately compete for an NFL Super Bowl.