If you have seen any TV discussions on the New York Giants in the last few weeks, almost universally the same argument is made by every pundit:
"The Giants have done everything to surround Daniel Jones with talent. He is out of excuses. The fate of the team rests with him."
Then many of these same pundits use this as an opportunity to say they don't believe in Daniel Jones and that's why the Giants won't finish first in the NFC East.
While I do think there is a great deal of merit in what they say about how important QB play will be in determining the fate of the Giants, I'm surprised that none of these media discussions have addressed the elephant in the room:
For better or worse, the Giants did very little this offseason in addressing the offensive line, the well-known Achilles heel of the team for the past decade.
Kevin Zeitler was let go. Zach Fulton was added in free agency. Nate Solder returns as insurance depth. Jonotthan Harrison replaces Spencer Pulley as back-up center.
In other words, not much changed. As has been discussed nauseam on BBI, Gettleman and Judge are putting their faith in the new OL coaching (Rob Sale and Pat Flaherty) and the development of the young guys (Thomas, Lemieux, Gates, Peart, and even Hernandez).
But this argument that it is "all on Daniel Jones" doesn't address the fact that the franchise is taking a big gamble by standing pat on the OL. Now I'm optimistic about the OL, but if they don't make a big jump in their play, this offense is still going to have major issues. It won't be as bad as it was last year because the upgrade in the other skill positions has been so dramatic, but the OL still needs to keep Jones upright and open holes for Barkley and the other new running backs.
I just find it extremely odd that every pundit keeps saying, "it's all on Daniel Jones." I would argue, "much depends on Jones and the offensive line."
I want to see a time constrained game winning drive.
I want to see costly errors corrected by cool under fire on point play.
I want to see a battle where our qb holds it together despite sudden and bad ol plays.
I want to see creative successes from.broken plays.
I dont care about stats as much as seeing difference making leadership. I want to see football players following a guy they think can win.
The ratio is the key. I’d argue a fair floor is a 3:2 TD to turnover ratio.
But realistically, if you’re going to get close to 6K total yards and be a top half offense, the QB is going to need to put up yards in the air. Somewhere between 3,500 - 4K. That’s with a top 10 or better run game.
We actually agree far more on things than we don’t. You may not see it the same but I tend to.
And I also think we both know an opinion or prediction should be worth more than just being arbitrary or worthless. It’s an expression of how you think and what you know, and sometimes what you don’t. And just the way you describe it above leads me to believe you aren’t willing to take that step for some reason.
You can tell us why, or not.
I’m tired of arguing individual performances. Just win and contribute. Whether that looks like Jones throwing 40 TD’s or 25 TD’s makes no difference to me.
I know it was a different time...but football has not changed as much as you would like to believe.
The QB position is about leadership and when it really matters, turning nothing into something.
This isn't baseball, you can't measure leadership by reading the stat lines on Monday morning.
IMV, you cannot evaluate the value of a teammate by year end statistics.
The Giants have improved the team. Jones knows he has to perform and there are expectations. Let’s see how he handles that stress and responding well to it gives hope he can win the really big games one day. You either have it or don’t.
Why do I have to set an arbitrary stat line? It’s worthless.
Here are two 2020 QB’s:
QB1: 4300 yards 31 TD’s 10 INT’s 98 QBR
QB2: 3500 yards 26 TD’s 8 INT’s 96 QBR
Which one do you think had a more successful season?
It’s not even a trick question. Herbert was 7-9 and Mayfield was 11-5 and made the playoffs. Which season would you rather Jones have?
Just to clarify - those aren't QBRs. Those are traditional passer ratings. Mayfield's QBR was 72 and Herbert's was 70.
As you know, Herbert was a rookie. So I would say he had a pretty successful season.
The fantasy comment is really unnecessary. Yes, football is a team game where both sides of the ball have to do their part to generate a winning record. But the NFL has morphed into an offensive league as PPG continue to increase YoY. Last year was the highest average PPG per team in the history of the NFL at nearly 25.
So that's the most common recipe to win, and a lot of that burden falls on the QB.
If the Giants win and Jones is a game managing passenger — that’s awesome. I’ll hope the Giants done extend him.
One inconvenient big change, the Giants were 8th in scoring in 1986 at 23.2 PPG, which would have put them in 20s last year.
I’m tired of arguing individual performances. Just win and contribute. Whether that looks like Jones throwing 40 TD’s or 25 TD’s makes no difference to me.
Haha. We both know that isn’t true either. You never shy from a good argument...in fact you create threads underpinning them...
I know it was a different time...but football has not changed as much as you would like to believe.
The QB position is about leadership and when it really matters, turning nothing into something.
This isn't baseball, you can't measure leadership by reading the stat lines on Monday morning.
IMV, you cannot evaluate the value of a teammate by year end statistics.
Football has changed a great deal since then. Power and strength has been overtaken by speed, athleticism and efficiency. Not replaced fully but overtaken...
The ratio is the key. I’d argue a fair floor is a 3:2 TD to turnover ratio.
I don't know here. Even if you throw out a statistical outlier like that freak AaRod, most of the playoff QBs have a 3+:1 TD/INT ratio. Just some incredible performances by top QBs.
Hell, I was hoping that DJ could get to 2:1. Because 3:1 is a big jump. Although Allen had a big jump going 3.7:1.
That's why I try to use TDs needed by the QB to impact that overall PPG average.
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...threw for 3400 something and had more INTs than TDs in 1986.
I know it was a different time...but football has not changed as much as you would like to believe.
The QB position is about leadership and when it really matters, turning nothing into something.
This isn't baseball, you can't measure leadership by reading the stat lines on Monday morning.
IMV, you cannot evaluate the value of a teammate by year end statistics.
Football has changed a great deal since then. Power and strength has been overtaken by speed, athleticism and efficiency. Not replaced fully but overtaken...
This is a huge fall for him. I thought he showed a lot his rookie season, but took a step back last year. Year 3...this is when we're going to know if he's the guy going forward.
As for the Eli comps, one huge difference: the rookie contract scale. I believe Eli signed a 6 or 7 year deal as a rookie; Jones signed a 4 year deal with a option for a 5th year. Those are big differences. Also, I think the Giants-JJ in particular whether he admits it or not-are hedging their bets with DJ, especially after that Bears trade. We now got 2 1st next spring so if DJ flops in '21, I think we're in prime position to snag a new QB.
Everything else is along for the ride...
If we were asked “what do you expect out of Saquon Barkley” this year, and the answer was:
- a couple of leading changing late scores
- a game winning play in a game the line wasn’t play well
- teammates who believe he’s a winner
I suspect the prevailing opinion would be — sure, plus 1300 yards rushing and 10 TDs.
This is a huge fall for him. I thought he showed a lot his rookie season, but took a step back last year. Year 3...this is when we're going to know if he's the guy going forward.
As for the Eli comps, one huge difference: the rookie contract scale. I believe Eli signed a 6 or 7 year deal as a rookie; Jones signed a 4 year deal with a option for a 5th year. Those are big differences. Also, I think the Giants-JJ in particular whether he admits it or not-are hedging their bets with DJ, especially after that Bears trade. We now got 2 1st next spring so if DJ flops in '21, I think we're in prime position to snag a new QB.
This is a 100% accurate post.
Additionally, we’ve added weapons in the passing game, including a hybrid run/pass option in Toney, not to mention Jones can run it too. The
Offense no longer has to go solely through him. We don’t know what that looks like yet.
Does the algorithm take that into account?
Christian my example above is exactly why Bill2 is right.
Statistics are arbitrary...wins and losses are not.
Nothing in the world Wrong with the conversation discussing hopeful statistics, expected statistics.
And I'm quite sure I have overstepped my place when it comes to giving people, especially bw, a hard time about this.
That said statistics do not determine the value of a quarterback. He is the 1 person on the football team that the coach needs To stand above the rest as a leader.
He is counted on To be the guy that makes everyone else believe.
He's in charge of controlling the game.
And what matters more?
That's just not reality though. It's not about running, it's not about defense. It's about throwing the ball to score points. There are a couple exceptions that are player and scheme based: Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee stand out.
But the Giants aren't built that way. They don't have the OC or personnel to deliver that type of scheme.
They've got to throw the ball a lot, IMO, from outside the pocket and using RPOs. And I would try to get Golladay 150+ targets. I would want the offense to flow through him and Engram.
No, it does matter. Today it matters that he can make it happen with all of the above during the season. That is what is expected when you are taken at the top of a draft at QB.
First round QBs may bust,..but the expectations remain the same.
They've got to throw the ball a lot, IMO, from outside the pocket and using RPOs. And I would try to get Golladay 150+ targets. I would want the offense to flow through him and Engram.
Did you see what Meyer is doing with Etienne, btw? Looks like they are going to make him a hybrid WR-RB. I remember Elliott did this a few times a game with Etienne when he was at Clemson. And Etienne was pretty damn good at it...
And what matters more?
Again, if the offense is truly better, then Barkley should have no issues reaching these figures while still winning.
Reaching for them while losing is the wrong offense.
Are you following me?
You following?
The better stats DJ has the more red marbles he's putting into that jar.
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They've got to throw the ball a lot, IMO, from outside the pocket and using RPOs. And I would try to get Golladay 150+ targets. I would want the offense to flow through him and Engram.
Did you see what Meyer is doing with Etienne, btw? Looks like they are going to make him a hybrid WR-RB. I remember Elliott did this a few times a game with Etienne when he was at Clemson. And Etienne was pretty damn good at it...
I like it. Get the ball to your fast guys while they're running in space.
Basketball on grass.
And with that, Much of this argument is semantic.
Joe Judge has likely not placed numbers on what he wants DJ to accomplish.
That is how I try and view the game.
I look at the stats and I enjoy Trying to figure out what they mean. After a game I check them out to see what they look like. If they are less than or greater than pedestrian I'm interested as to why... Though, what I saw on the field and what the coaching staff will see Over and over and over again before Tuesday of the following week Is what I would use as a barometer.
I thought it was about setting measurements that delineated good from bad.
Something as simple as the percentage of TDs per attempt, and turnovers per touch get you a good sense of the primary starters who will have a few or below .500 records each year.
If we were asked “what do you expect out of Saquon Barkley” this year, and the answer was:
- a couple of leading changing late scores
- a game winning play in a game the line wasn’t play well
- teammates who believe he’s a winner
I suspect the prevailing opinion would be — sure, plus 1300 yards rushing and 10 TDs.
Because with all the hoopla around passing, the game still is about stopping the run. If a defensive coordinator is getting gashed for 6 or 7 yards a clip he’s going to do everything in his power (throw resources into it) to stop it. Couple reasons for that.
1 - if you are getting gashed in the air, it only takes one play (interception/sack fumble) or a few miscues by the offense in a row to get off the field. When you run the ball like that, you essentially take turnover risk off the table.
2 - it’s absolutely demoralizing and exhausting for a defense to stop the run. This pays big dividends in the 4th.
I really can give a shit about total yardage because it’s a garbage star dependent on what type of offense you run. The best three metrics in my mind are yards per play, total TD to TO ratio, and red zone scoring percentage. You finish type 5 in those and you are looking at a high seed in the playoffs. Paired with a competent D probably a bye.
How does that affect offensive team statistics, let alone individual?
Because with all the hoopla around passing, the game still is about stopping the run.
I don't buy this as much. To me, it's about redzone defense. Holding teams to FG attempts vs TDs. Per the rules, most teams can run up and down the field between the 20s. Once inside the 20s, the outcome of games really changes.
Balance.
1. Saints - 2.9
2. Green Bay - 2.9
3. Tenn - 2.9
4. Minn - 2.6
5. Tampa - 2.5
6. Buff - 2.5
7. Seattle - 2.5
8. Cleve - 2.4
9. Zona - 2.4
10. 9ers - 2.3
11. KC - 2.3
I do expect the RB/OL unit to contribute to the point of being a dependable and more flexible part of the offense ( able to contribute winning plays in a variety of circumstances).
There was once a pass that went about 18 yards to the center of the field and the data records it as a 18 yard pass.
Had a high arc, was a little slow and was possibly overthrown or maybe thrown to the only place our receiver could catch it with the least chance of an interception.
So statistically its a remarkably unremarkable for a pass from an NFL QB.
Is it a play you evaluate from your minds eye or a stat sheet?
Happened in 2007.
In 2021, I want to see our current QB show he can often enough elevate the team to some un-expected victories and some plays to unexpected successes.
I also want to see less bone headed plays and poor risk assessment plays (with all due respect to what Farve could do...his Kamikaze style was not what I hope for the NYG).
The annual stats are too often a by-product of an offense and injuries and unskilled skill players. Above and beyond individual contributors eventually can often be placed in better circumstances and it will pay off. A guy who cant elevate his play (s) when it makes a difference causes very expensive pulls on a cap constrained team and it rarely pays off.
imo
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Absolute nonsense.
Barkley was the 2 overall pick yet somehow your logic is to blame it on the 6th overall pick should be a terror vs excusing the injury prone 2nd overall pick.
Mind-boggling and ridiculous.
In 2021, I want to see our current QB show he can often enough elevate the team to some un-expected victories and some plays to unexpected successes.
Spot on - this should be everyone's expectation of Jones.
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In 2021, I want to see our current QB show he can often enough elevate the team to some un-expected victories and some plays to unexpected successes.
Spot on - this should be everyone's expectation of Jones.
This is also my expectation of Jones.
You following?
If others go up, his won’t have to come down much, if any...
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In comment 15272396 Bill2 said:
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In 2021, I want to see our current QB show he can often enough elevate the team to some un-expected victories and some plays to unexpected successes.
Spot on - this should be everyone's expectation of Jones.
This is also my expectation of Jones.
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other players’ go up in a winning effort, that’s good.
You following?
If others go up, his won’t have to come down much, if any...
Unless the defenses are devoting resources to stopping him, thus thining out other areas of their defense creating opportunities for other players on offense.
And with that, Much of this argument is semantic.
Joe Judge has likely not placed numbers on what he wants DJ to accomplish.
That is how I try and view the game.
I look at the stats and I enjoy Trying to figure out what they mean. After a game I check them out to see what they look like. If they are less than or greater than pedestrian I'm interested as to why... Though, what I saw on the field and what the coaching staff will see Over and over and over again before Tuesday of the following week Is what I would use as a barometer.
But that's the thing, making plays is going to naturally add to statistics.
Look, it wasn't that long ago that analytics was looked down upon by the majority of baseball and baseball fans. Nerds with spreadsheets. Now all 30 teams are invested in them, and with the advent of statcast the players are all in too.
The effect that's had on the quality if the game is a different discussion, but the NHL, NBA, and NFL have all been heading in the same analytical direction. Do I think JJ has given DJ hard numbers he needs to hit? No. But if DJ puts up good numbers then odds are high that the Giants are winning. Likewise DJ having bad statistics likely means the Giants are not doing so well
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Because with all the hoopla around passing, the game still is about stopping the run.
I don't buy this as much. To me, it's about redzone defense. Holding teams to FG attempts vs TDs. Per the rules, most teams can run up and down the field between the 20s. Once inside the 20s, the outcome of games really changes.
Teams that don’t stop the run suck in the red zone because they can’t stop the run.