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Reasonable expectations for Daniel Jones for 2021

Angel Eyes : 5/25/2021 12:56 pm
So banking off of The somewhat odd argument that it is all on Daniel Jones thread, what are reasonable (emphasis on that) expectations for Daniel Jones for 2021, for stats and winning percentage?

Say Jones has a pretty good game against the Cowboys: 300+ yards passing, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 interception, 1 fumble he manages to recover. Giants lose 35-38 on a field goal as time expires. Whose fault is it that the Giants lost?
The somewhat odd argument that it is all on Daniel Jones thread - ( New Window )
38 Points?  
HMunster : 5/25/2021 1:00 pm : link
The Defense.
The.  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/25/2021 1:00 pm : link
.reasonable expectations are that the Giants make the playoffs.
beat a team with a winning record.  
japanhead : 5/25/2021 1:02 pm : link
.
Just stay healthy  
Chris684 : 5/25/2021 1:03 pm : link
I believe if he can do that, the rest will fall into place.
Win the division  
US1 Giants : 5/25/2021 1:03 pm : link
and at least the first round of playoffs. Have some successful 2 minute drives. Cut turnovers.
RE: beat a team with a winning record.  
US1 Giants : 5/25/2021 1:05 pm : link
In comment 15271809 japanhead said:
Quote:
.


Yes! I forgot he had not done that yet.
RE: The.  
Zeke's Alibi : 5/25/2021 1:06 pm : link
In comment 15271806 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
.reasonable expectations are that the Giants make the playoffs.


Yeh this is where I’m at. Putting stats on it is silly with the way this team is constructed. Very good defense, line that is much better run blocking than pass blocking, and Saquon. There’s enough talent on this roster the expectation for this team as far as DJ goes is the playoffs.
at least 9 wins  
giants#1 : 5/25/2021 1:07 pm : link
which likely requires: 4000+ yards, 25+ TDs (combined passing/rushing), 63%, 2:1 TD:TO (INTs+FumblesLost), Y/A > 7.0
RE: RE: The.  
Brown_Hornet : 5/25/2021 1:26 pm : link
In comment 15271815 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 15271806 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


.reasonable expectations are that the Giants make the playoffs.



Yeh this is where I’m at. Putting stats on it is silly with the way this team is constructed. Very good defense, line that is much better run blocking than pass blocking, and Saquon. There’s enough talent on this roster the expectation for this team as far as DJ goes is the playoffs.
+1
..  
Dr. D : 5/25/2021 1:38 pm : link
10-11 wins, maybe a playoff win.

I could see DJ w/ 25+ TDs passing, maybe 1-2 TDs running, 3500+ yds, continues trend of cutting down on fumbles (went from 18 in '19 to 11 in '20).
There are still too many variables to have realistic expectations but  
Spider56 : 5/25/2021 1:38 pm : link
winning the division is a reasonable goal.

Here’s what is certain ... DJ is up against 3 major off the field pressures; replacing a future HOFer who was elevated to god like status by many, playing the highest profile position in the media microscope capital of the world, and battling numerous talking heads (and so called fans) who want to see him fail so they can say I told you so ... yet I think he’s got the moxie to beat lol this and succeed.
Playoffs  
Big Blue '56 : 5/25/2021 1:41 pm : link
or 11 wins in a 17 game season
RE: The.  
christian : 5/25/2021 1:43 pm : link
In comment 15271806 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
.reasonable expectations are that the Giants make the playoffs.


And if the Giants don't make the playoffs, what impact does that have on Jones's future?
We do this thread every freakin' two weeks  
Bill L : 5/25/2021 1:48 pm : link
but the invariable answer is 8 million TD's (no mention of points, wins, or losses).
10 wins and playoffs seems reasonable to me  
ZogZerg : 5/25/2021 2:06 pm : link
Both Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen were able to do that year 3. Baker coming off a 6-10 season.
Continue to look shredded as he leads the giants to victories  
Dukie Dimes : 5/25/2021 2:06 pm : link
Don’t know how to add a pic  
Dukie Dimes : 5/25/2021 2:07 pm : link
Here is the link
DJ - ( New Window )
Reasonable expectations for Giants is to win more games than  
Jimmy Googs : 5/25/2021 2:21 pm : link
they lose.

Reasonable expectations for Daniel Jones is to be one of the main reasons behind that happening. Getting the Offense to score on average around 25 points per game would be a decent target. Assume his stats will follow accordingly.
Sorry, subjective  
Thegratefulhead : 5/25/2021 2:27 pm : link
I want to put a stat line in the sand, but I cannot. There are too many variables. I am a fair human being. I want to watch the season, feel it. After I see all the games, I will have a good idea whether I want the team to give him another shot or move on.

I will not allow people to tie me down with nonsense. I am also not the excuse man. If he sucks in 2021, you can count on me to say that. I just want to watch winning football.

I could not care less if I am right about any of it. I care even less if any of you are right about DG, Jones, Judge or Mara. You are not getting a job as a GM, just sayin'.

I am excited to watch this season.

That is all that matters to me.
RE: Reasonable expectations for Giants is to win more games than  
Thegratefulhead : 5/25/2021 2:29 pm : link
In comment 15271928 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
they lose.

Reasonable expectations for Daniel Jones is to be one of the main reasons behind that happening. Getting the Offense to score on average around 25 points per game would be a decent target. Assume his stats will follow accordingly.
This is both fair and realistic, but I have seen enough things that can happen, that even this, I would not write in permanent marker.
I'll Play  
Trainmaster : 5/25/2021 2:31 pm : link
1) Be the clear team leader on offense
2) Be a recognized "dual threat" both passing & running the ball
3) Be more careful with the ball (2:1 TD to Int ratio, half or lower lost fumbles compared to 2020)
4) Be able to make pass protection adjustments at the LOS
5) Be able to read defenses, make play adjustments at the LOS; look off safeties etc
Expectation  
Thegratefulhead : 5/25/2021 2:47 pm : link
Is to win games. If we win 11 games or more, I DGAF about his stats. 8-9 and he is ascending at year's end, but he makes plays to win division games late in the year.... All kinds of scenarios I can think up that push me off a stat line in the sand.
RE: RE: Reasonable expectations for Giants is to win more games than  
Jimmy Googs : 5/25/2021 2:57 pm : link
In comment 15271939 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
In comment 15271928 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


they lose.

Reasonable expectations for Daniel Jones is to be one of the main reasons behind that happening. Getting the Offense to score on average around 25 points per game would be a decent target. Assume his stats will follow accordingly.

This is both fair and realistic, but I have seen enough things that can happen, that even this, I would not write in permanent marker.


No, this is fair. Don’t need to list every exception or contingency like your underwriting an insurance policy here.

Get out your permanent marker...
RE: Sorry, subjective  
Johnny5 : 5/25/2021 2:57 pm : link
In comment 15271937 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
I want to put a stat line in the sand, but I cannot. There are too many variables. I am a fair human being. I want to watch the season, feel it. After I see all the games, I will have a good idea whether I want the team to give him another shot or move on.

I will not allow people to tie me down with nonsense. I am also not the excuse man. If he sucks in 2021, you can count on me to say that. I just want to watch winning football.

I could not care less if I am right about any of it. I care even less if any of you are right about DG, Jones, Judge or Mara. You are not getting a job as a GM, just sayin'.

I am excited to watch this season.

That is all that matters to me.

I agree with this.
24 tds  
mpinmaine : 5/25/2021 3:17 pm : link
10 picks
3500 yrds
2 4th qrtr comebacks
NYG 11 - 6
which IMO means taking the division
Unless the D plays lights out...  
bw in dc : 5/25/2021 3:32 pm : link
and carries this team, which isn't out of the question because the division may still be very poor, I fully expect Jones to be the player most responsible for producing points.

It's just modern football - the QB should stir the drink.

So I expect:

30 TDs
QBR 65+
2:1 TD/INT ratio
65% completion %
YPA of 7.5 or >
300+ yards rushing, 4+ rushing TDs
Less than 8 total fumbles

Not going to predict season stats  
kdog77 : 5/25/2021 3:48 pm : link
but I think it is reasonable to expect that DJ will make quicker/better decisions in his second year in the same offense. He is not a rookie anymore and he needs to show he can diagnose the defense at the LOS more consistently rather than rely on his athleticism to get out of jams. Hopefully the Giants can take advantage of aggressive blitzing defenses with better skill position players.
RE: Sorry, subjective  
Brown_Hornet : 5/25/2021 4:35 pm : link
In comment 15271937 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
I want to put a stat line in the sand, but I cannot. There are too many variables. I am a fair human being. I want to watch the season, feel it. After I see all the games, I will have a good idea whether I want the team to give him another shot or move on.

I will not allow people to tie me down with nonsense. I am also not the excuse man. If he sucks in 2021, you can count on me to say that. I just want to watch winning football.

I could not care less if I am right about any of it. I care even less if any of you are right about DG, Jones, Judge or Mara. You are not getting a job as a GM, just sayin'.

I am excited to watch this season.

That is all that matters to me.
My thoughts since the season ended.
Made even more exciting by what appears to be a very nice offseason.
RE: Unless the D plays lights out...  
Milton : 5/25/2021 4:45 pm : link
In comment 15272008 bw in dc said:
Quote:

So I expect:

30 TDs
QBR 65+
2:1 TD/INT ratio
65% completion %
YPA of 7.5 or >
300+ yards rushing, 4+ rushing TDs
Less than 8 total fumbles
Glad to see you've abandoned the dark side and have relatively high expectations of Jones.
My reasonable expectations...  
Milton : 5/25/2021 4:46 pm : link
Super Bowl victory. League MVP.
Expectations lead to nothing but disappointment  
jsuds : 5/25/2021 4:49 pm : link
So I have none. But I will guess Jones

Gets his first win(s) over teams with winning records
Leads the NFC in TD's
Has most TD passes over 20 yards in NFC
Gets 10 or more wins.
Reduces his TO's to manageable level.
win a lot of games  
djm : 5/25/2021 5:05 pm : link
beat good teams. Make big plays when needed. Doesn't have to be constant, but we need to believe in this guy.

People get way too worked up about stats. Remember Eli. That's all.
Eli should have taught us a lot about NFL QB development  
djm : 5/25/2021 5:06 pm : link
..
RE: Eli should have taught us a lot about NFL QB development  
FatMan in Charlotte : 5/25/2021 5:10 pm : link
In comment 15272118 djm said:
Quote:
..


Eli didn't even teach certain Giants "fans" to appreciate him!
Make the playoffs  
gogiants : 5/25/2021 6:13 pm : link
but I'd give him to 2022 to do so. Sooner is better.
30 TDs, 14 interceptions  
TommyWiseau : 5/25/2021 7:42 pm : link
4k yards and a winning record IMO
Stats similar to his rookie season, but shave off 1/2 the TOs.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/25/2021 7:51 pm : link
& a postseason berth.

Listen, he was drafted 6th overall. Enough of the excuses...'The OL is meh', etc...when you're drafted that high, the expectation is that you elevate others & overcome the flaws around you.
Reasonable Expectations:  
OntheRoad : 5/25/2021 10:21 pm : link

Cut down turnovers to within the normal NFL range

Lead the Giants to a winning record
RE: Stats similar to his rookie season, but shave off 1/2 the TOs.  
Scooter185 : 5/25/2021 10:30 pm : link
In comment 15272267 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
& a postseason berth.

Listen, he was drafted 6th overall. Enough of the excuses...'The OL is meh', etc...when you're drafted that high, the expectation is that you elevate others & overcome the flaws around you.


Saw this the other day and it's relevant to your post:

"How does the rest of the NFL see this one? I figured I’d check for you.

“From work I’ve done so far, I would say there is still a lot to believe in. I think he can he a higher-level win-with starter,” said one NFC pro scouting director. “Has size, toughness, arm, good enough athleticism. The key is elimination of turnovers. Talent level around him will be much better.”


For those unfamiliar with the language, a “win-with” starter is as opposed to a “win-because-of” starter. In other words, the former can be good if things are around him (hence, winning with him), whereas the latter is a quarterback who can make up for flaws you might have and lift the operation around him. And the book on Jones seems to be what you’d think—that he can be the first kind of quarterback, but probably not the second kind.

“I think he’s a solid starting QB,” said another NFC pro scouting director. “Not going to elevate the play of those around him. But he’s good enough to manage the game. Will need a good supporting cast to be successful.”

The good news is how much better that supporting cast has gotten. Kenny Golladay, John Ross and Kadarius Toney, three contrasting talents who can play off one another, are joining a receiver group that’s already got Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton in the stable; Kyle Rudolph will jump into a tight end room that’s got Evan Engram; Saquon Barkley’s coming back; and the team has spilled a ton of draft capital to fix the line.

That should help the Giants get clearer answers on who Jones is, and who he can be, as an NFL quarterback heading into decision time in the spring of 2022."

www.si.com/nfl/2021/05/19/nfl-mailbag-daniel-jones-giants-andy-dalton-kellen-mond
Based on 2020 stats around the league,  
Go Terps : 5/25/2021 11:48 pm : link
a slightly above average season would be:

4000 yds.
30 TDs
7.5 AY/A

None of those figures (as team totals, so this is assuming Jones starts all 17 games) is unreasonable based on what happened around the league last year.
This team will oly go as far as the OL will take them  
Rudy5757 : 5/26/2021 9:20 am : link
DJ is a key factor but the OL play will determine his fate. If they are not improved over last year, the weapons we brought in will not matter. If DJ has no time it will be a failed season. I think the OTs will be OK, Ill take average. I worry about the OGs on this team. If Hernandez is a starter I will have very little faith in the season. He has not been good, his best play is average and thats not good enough.

Maybe they surprise with a new coach, I thought that last year with Columbo and that didnt work. The OL will determine the fate of this team. A lot of the bad plays from DJ can be attributed to poor OL play and a lack of talent at the skill positions. We fixed the skill position problem but I do not yet see that the OL situation is fixed. Time will tell.

Just look at the Superbowls as an example, the best QBs cant operate while under pressure. We proved that with Tom Brady and then Mahomes this past superbowl was not good with all of the weapons they had he was running for his life.

I would say the biggest question for me going into the offseason was the OL and it doesnt appear that anything has improved on paper.
Not sure how "reasonable" some of these expectations are.  
11 to 89 : 5/26/2021 11:16 am : link
Eli's career average season (excluding 2004 and 2019, full seasons only)

60.5% completion percentage
3,924 passing yards
25 TD passes
16 interceptions
6.6 average yards per attempt
56 QBR

Judging by some of the expectations I see in this thread, he sucks if he isn't significantly better than Eli.
Copying the PFF performance writeup on the NYG OL  
Jimmy Googs : 5/26/2021 11:31 am : link
They ranked them at #31 because of the consistent pressure they gave up over the season. They were also actually 31st on pressure % allowed (only MINN was worse) if you want to just assess using actual stats.

Also including how Chargers came in at #32 in their OL rankings. They also came in poorly with pressure % allowed at 30th in the league, just ahead of Giants. So kudos to Justin Herbert to perform nonetheless.


Quote:
31. NEW YORK GIANTS
With one year in the books, the Giants can’t be feeling good about their decision to take Andrew Thomas as the first tackle off the board in last year’s draft, given the season he had compared to the tackles selected after him. Thomas allowed 57 pressures at left tackle this season, 14 more than any other player at the position. He was the only player at the position to be charged with 10 sacks allowed, as well.

As you could guess for a team coming in at second to last on this list, Thomas wasn’t the only problem up front for the Giants. Shane Lemieux and Will Hernandez both allowed pressure rates of at least 8% at left guard, while Cameron Fleming — filling in for the opted-out Nate Solder — allowed the sixth most pressures in the league at the right tackle position.

32. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers’ offensive line has been among the worst in the NFL for several years now, but they were supposed to be better this season after adding veterans Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga to the right side of the line. At least, they were supposed to be better in theory — that’s not what played out on the field.

Turner and Bulaga both battled through injury-shortened seasons and weren’t effective when they were on the field, either. Bulaga’s 61.6 overall grade ranked 29th at the right tackle position, and Turner came in as the lowest-graded right guard in the entire league by a wide margin (34.8). Those were the veterans who were supposed to raise the floor of what was otherwise a bad unit coming into the year, which made the lack of production from those two players hurt all the more.

Storm Norton came out of the year as Los Angeles’ highest-graded offensive lineman at 65.1 overall. In other words, the offensive line is once again a need for the Chargers.




RE: RE: The.  
FStubbs : 5/26/2021 12:31 pm : link
In comment 15271870 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15271806 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


.reasonable expectations are that the Giants make the playoffs.



And if the Giants don't make the playoffs, what impact does that have on Jones's future?


Depends on the reasons we don't make the playoffs. If Jones plays well, and shows improvement, that may be enough for him on a personal level for the Giants to keep with him and improve other areas of the team.
RE: Not sure how  
Dr. D : 5/26/2021 12:51 pm : link
In comment 15272686 11 to 89 said:
Quote:
Eli's career average season (excluding 2004 and 2019, full seasons only)

60.5% completion percentage
3,924 passing yards
25 TD passes
16 interceptions
6.6 average yards per attempt
56 QBR

Judging by some of the expectations I see in this thread, he sucks if he isn't significantly better than Eli.

Can't speak for anyone else, but I think my expectations are reasonable based on what D. Jones has already done, while expecting some reasonable improvement.

25+ TDs passing - he threw for 24 as a rookie (in 12 GS) with significantly inferior weapons
1-2 TDs running - he's already done that
3500+ yds - he's averaged about 3000 yds with much crappier weapons and bad/inexperienced OL.
I didn't mention comp%, but don't think 65% is unreasonable. He would've been at 65% last year if EE had a respectable catch%.

Lastly, continues trend of cutting down on fumbles. He went from 18 in '19 to 11 in '20 and now will have more experienced OL and better weapons should help improve decision making and enable getting rid of ball more quickly.
^^  
Dr. D : 5/26/2021 12:55 pm : link
and the stats above, combined with a good D and ST can get us 10-11 wins and playoffs, imo.
I keep forgetting about the 17th game  
Dr. D : 5/26/2021 1:05 pm : link
(growing old, retired engr, confused..). I'd increase his numbers above for the additional game. So his yards could reasonably be near 4000, etc.
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