NFT: Mets Minors 6/16/2021-Ginn for the win-My player of the day

Hernandez is screwed by the fact the league overvalues what positional output should look like and also by undervaluing 1b defense. The guy changed the position.. oh and had a 131 OPS+ prior to his final season in NY and his season in Cleveland

In comment 15287775 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 15287759 DanMetroMan said: Quote: In comment 15287757 pjcas18 said: Quote: HOFer or at least a hall of very good-er I know you had only in quotes, but I'd love if Dom had a Mark Grace-like career. Would have been a HR of a draft pick. PJ, I was only talking about that kind of profile in today's game not Grace per see. 280+ 8-10 homers, 30 doubles, you don't see many 1b like that nowadays True, and not to go in an unintended direction - but to show how silly I think that perspective would be - how would Keith Hernandez be viewed today by scouts or others? I view Keith as a better Mark Grace. And he is kind of my prototype of what a 1B should be. Today, he'd be viewed negatively because of a lack of HR power? Hernandez is a guy who gets snubbed by HOF but has a better case than players like Eddie Murray, Jim Rice and Harold Baines and many more and not a sniff and today he'd likely be relegated to non-prospect status - fields the hell out of the position and hits for everything but HR power (career .821 OPS so it's not like he's Ozzie Smith).

Disagree with you on Murray out of those three.

he was actually the 3rd highest position player in fwar behind just Bonds and McGwire. other than perhaps his parents I don't think anyone felt that way at the time looking at mainly traditional stats (22 homers, 93 rbis). Had Steve Phillips realized how good he was perhaps he'd have extended him a year early instead of replacing him with Todd Zeile after '99.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=1998&season1=1998 - ( New Window )

In comment 15287780 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

and not worse. You can look them up on fangraphs and they had some impressive war years even without hitting homers. From '83-'86 Keith was worth 5 wins each season and his best year ('79) he was worth more than 7 wins. The most homers he had in any of those years was 15 and '79 was his only year with 100 rbis. Similarly Olerud's '99 season was worth 8.1 wins above replacement with a wrc of 167. Both better than any year piazza had as a Met. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keith-hernandez/1005706/stats?position=1B - ( New Window )

So to me Grace was a slightly worse Hernandez. So, if Dom wound up a Mark Grace 2.0 even without the HRs I still think it's a "nailed it" draft pick.

At this point I doubt Dom winds up close to Grace from a career standpoint even though Dom is still only 26, but still would be nice.

Baines does not belong in the HOF I'm sorry. He really doesn't. Nothing against him personally but one of the worst HOFers in recent memory.

because it implies consistency and longevity that could get interrupted by anything (injuries, etc).

I don't think I'd compare Dom to Grace or Olerud anymore because he hasn't shown that kind of bat control. Mark Grace walked twice as often as he struck out. Olerud walked more than he struck out too. Both were career .300 hitters. I don't think Dom will hit that well for his career.

So I'm not sure who I'd compare him to in previous generations but among players in today's game at 1b I think Hosmer still fits. Dom is a little better defensively but despite poor analytics I've always thought Hosmer is a good 1b. His career average is around .280, he K's a little less than Dom and maybe Dom has a little bit more power, but I guess we will see. Prorating out last year's statline Dom would have had a better year than any in Hosmer's career but I don't think that's quite fair. Prorating 2019 seems more likely what his typical good year will be, but who knows.

OAA doesn't love Dom's work at 1b. -5 OAA since opening day last season, Hosmer is at +2 this season and 0 over the last 2.

In comment 15287801 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

OAA doesn't love Dom's work at 1b. -5 OAA since opening day last season, Hosmer is at +2 this season and 0 over the last 2.

Dom hasn't played there much this year but when he has he has made some real gems. I know SSS but he has looked far better than previous years when he never looked like his GG reputation. This year he has made some legit GG plays.

looking to cook up the debate again, rather just reporting news. Boras just issued a statement that all 30 teams helped players learn "gripping techniques" including using substances and that the league was fully aware of this practice. Boras named Michael Hill by name...why? Because Hill (former GM of the Marlins) now works in the league office.

beginning rehab tonight, could be back as soon as next weekend.

Wow
Link - ( New Window )

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
20m
Carlos Carrasco (torn right hamstring) has restarted his throwing program. He's throwing off flat ground right now -- more intensive than a game of catch, but not a true bullpen session off the slope of a mound.

The Mets have remained hopeful that Carrasco can return in July.

In comment 15287796 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

because it implies consistency and longevity that could get interrupted by anything (injuries, etc). I don't think I'd compare Dom to Grace or Olerud anymore because he hasn't shown that kind of bat control. Mark Grace walked twice as often as he struck out. Olerud walked more than he struck out too. Both were career .300 hitters. I don't think Dom will hit that well for his career. So I'm not sure who I'd compare him to in previous generations but among players in today's game at 1b I think Hosmer still fits. Dom is a little better defensively but despite poor analytics I've always thought Hosmer is a good 1b. His career average is around .280, he K's a little less than Dom and maybe Dom has a little bit more power, but I guess we will see. Prorating out last year's statline Dom would have had a better year than any in Hosmer's career but I don't think that's quite fair. Prorating 2019 seems more likely what his typical good year will be, but who knows.

As a hitter, I like the comp for Dom as Rafael Palmeiro (without the 'roids/hgh). Admittedly, this for me is about who his swing reminds me of, I think Dom has a very similar power stroke from the left side to Raffy. I also think Dom can settle in to that 30-35 homer guy that Raffy was normally...Palmeiro had a smattering of 40 or more homer seasons, three separate 39 homer seasons, a 38 homer season...but I think we know what the deal was there.

Dom is probably going to strike out a good bit more than Palmeiro for his career, though. But that swing with the top hand letting go, everything about Dom's swing reminds me of Palmeiro.

Conforto **only scheduled to go 5 innings**

and honestly even in a career year I don't think he will ever get close. I'm not even sure I'd bet on him going over 30 more than once or twice. Would love to be wrong but even if you prorate out his amazing 50 games last year, you get 30 homers on the nose.

I think he's a 20-30 homer player, .280 BA, .350 OBP, .500 SLG. Solid mid .800's OPS'er with some defensive value.

In comment 15287829 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Wow Link - ( New Window )

Imagine having Trout and Ohtani, and being that mediocre. Just unreal

In comment 15287845 KDavies said:

Quote:

In comment 15287829 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Wow Link - ( New Window ) Imagine having Trout and Ohtani, and being that mediocre. Just unreal

They have some interesting trade chips and I'd be interested in talking to them lol

also not sure they'd be willing to trade him or if he got an NTC but Mike Minor is having a solid year starting and the Royals are 6 games under - in terms of role fit he'd be great. An extra lefty starter while waiting for Thor/Carrasco to potentially return and if they do he can shift into the BP. Under contract next year with a team option year after that.

I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?).

In comment 15287851 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

also not sure they'd be willing to trade him or if he got an NTC but Mike Minor is having a solid year starting and the Royals are 6 games under - in terms of role fit he'd be great. An extra lefty starter while waiting for Thor/Carrasco to potentially return and if they do he can shift into the BP. Under contract next year with a team option year after that. I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?).

Gray has been absolutely awful recently. Major, major red flags. I think he's hiding an injury. Pass on him.

17 innings 19 hits 8 walks 6 k's (yes 6) 7.94 era

would be two top targets for me (if I'm going with realistic names)

Cobb, Gibson, Turnbull if he comes back healthy, same with Quintana (pitching well before hitting the IL), Marquez/Berrios likely cost a ton.

In comment 15287854 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 15287851 Eric on Li said: Quote: also not sure they'd be willing to trade him or if he got an NTC but Mike Minor is having a solid year starting and the Royals are 6 games under - in terms of role fit he'd be great. An extra lefty starter while waiting for Thor/Carrasco to potentially return and if they do he can shift into the BP. Under contract next year with a team option year after that. I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?). Gray has been absolutely awful recently. Major, major red flags. I think he's hiding an injury. Pass on him.

the other way to look at that is lower price of acquisition and maybe with a few weeks off he looks better (he'd be solid before those 2 bad starts pre-DL). He's been out for a couple weeks but resumed throwing BP's. Would certainly want to see him come back and prove he's healthy first.

yeah, if he comes back and suddenly is pitching well again but he's been beyond bad and 8 walks vs. 6 k's over 17 innings suggests something is really wrong.

on what the injury was. Obviously on the medical side we know very little of reality.

Gibson 3.35 FIP, signed through next season

Heaney 3.64 FIP FA after the season

Quintana 4.44 FIP FA after the season

3 potential options

In comment 15287872 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

on what the injury was. Obviously on the medical side we know very little of reality.

Well we know the results, he's been truly awful. 17 innings 8 walks vs. 6 k's with an era near 8. Teams don't make moves for guys like that while they are pitching this poorly. If he comes back and pitches better then sure he'd be on the radar

and Cobb too. Honestly I have a pretty good amount of confidence in the new look FO, they have seemed to do a decent job adding players who fit well. Pillar, Villar, Walker, Loup all turned out to be good additions. SRF too. Even Luchessi has had his moments.

the 1 thing I'd really like to see is a P who can pitch out of the BP or the rotation. I think that would be a big added bonus to whoever they get.

was bad last season (when he pitched) due to his shoulder and now it's his elbow, he's no longer missing bats (last 102 innings 72 k's 6.4 K/9). Yeah, they only need back-end help but he needs to prove he can even provide that.

Anderson is another one but I'm not particularly high on him, fine at the right price.

In comment 15287841 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

and honestly even in a career year I don't think he will ever get close. I'm not even sure I'd bet on him going over 30 more than once or twice. Would love to be wrong but even if you prorate out his amazing 50 games last year, you get 30 homers on the nose. I think he's a 20-30 homer player, .280 BA, .350 OBP, .500 SLG. Solid mid .800's OPS'er with some defensive value.

'19 and '20 he hit homeruns at almost exactly the same rate. 21 homeruns in a total of 397 plate appearances. That's a nice sample over two seasons...prorated out to 650 plate appearances you get 35 homeruns. I don't think he's a 40 homerun guy either, though I think he has an outside chance. And 650 plate appearances shouldn't be too difficult for him if he is a regular in at least 150 games. At least he should get very close to that number.

What may hurt him is late inning substitutions, but at some point in his career he could be someone's everyday first baseman, where that's not a factor (would likely need to be somewhere else). This year he won't get close because of his prolonged cold streaks and lengthy homerun drought. But I think him hitting a homer around once every 18.5 ABs like he was doing for the last two seasons is more of who he is as a hitter than what we've seen this year.

Was Bregman more reliant on the cheating than other Astros? Correa/Gurriel/Altuve have been as good as ever this season.

is I don't care if he hits 40 HR's.

On this Mets team with Alonso, Lindor, JD, Conforto, etc. (when healthy) they don't need a 40 HR guy.

If Dom is a doubles hitter with "good enough" power and OPSs .840 and plays good D whether in LF or at 1B and doesn't strike out a lot - I don't care about his HR power.

Even if he's not a prototypical 1B (like Alonso) he doesn't play 1B exclusively - and he's also probably not a prototypical corner OF and I don't care about that either.

In comment 15287891 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

is I don't care if he hits 40 HR's. On this Mets team with Alonso, Lindor, JD, Conforto, etc. (when healthy) they don't need a 40 HR guy. If Dom is a doubles hitter with "good enough" power and OPSs .840 and plays good D whether in LF or at 1B and doesn't strike out a lot - I don't care about his HR power. Even if he's not a prototypical 1B (like Alonso) he doesn't play 1B exclusively - and he's also probably not a prototypical corner OF and I don't care about that either.

Not to get on a tangent but since Alonso's defense has been so good and with Dom taking to LF (and JDD/McNeil also versatile options) I'd have a hard time justifying a big amount of $ to Conforto unless he comes back and goes beast mode. I'd happily take him on the QO or a reasonable extension but seems like COF is not the best use of resource.

I believe they told McNeil to play OF during his rehab stint - which I assume is because they are happy with how Guillorme/Villar have been playing on the IF and may consider shifting him around at the end of games if they take Dom out. I can't remember but I believe McNeil said 1 of the positions he plays is easier on his legs but I don't remember if it was 2b or LF.

Rojas went out of his way that McNeil will see the majority of his time at his normal position (2b).

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
Jun 15
Jeff McNeil will continue his rehab tonight at Triple-A Syracuse, following one game at Class A Brooklyn.

Luis Rojas said today that McNeil (strained left hamstring) could play a game in left field while on assignment, though he will return to his primary position of 2B in NY.

to me like they want McNeil fresh enough in the OF that it can be done, not that they have any plans for him to see significant time out there.

In comment 15287899 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

to me like they want McNeil fresh enough in the OF that it can be done, not that they have any plans for him to see significant time out there.

the 2 most obvious ways I could see him making sense out there are:

1. more injuries (or setbacks)
2. if they want to get Guillorme in at 2b and Dom out late in games

I'm generally a fan of letting players stick to 1 position but McNeil wasn't playing a very good 2b this year and he has played very well in LF the last few years, so this seems like a good idea. This year of all years it seems like a good idea to be prepared for anything.

McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually.

I missed it, no update on Nimmo since his BP on the 14th, pain-free? Scheduled to do it again? Rehab coming soon? Also nothing on Davis?

In comment 15287908 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually.

McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.

In comment 15287922 JB_in_DC said:

Quote:

In comment 15287908 DanMetroMan said: Quote: McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually. McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.

I wasn’t looking to knock McKinney but I’m pretty confident he’s not a 1.005 OPS player. That would be good for 5th in the entire league.

wRC+ is 173, Ronald Acuna's is 164, Tatis 162. So yeah, he's not this good and he will come back down to earth but he's been a nice find and he's clearly better than Maybin or Almora and it would be silly to lose him for Almora (who has an option).

In comment 15287922 JB_in_DC said:

Quote:

In comment 15287908 DanMetroMan said: Quote: McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually. McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.

By the way his BABIP is .313 with the Mets and his ISO (.380) would be 40 points higher than Babe Ruth's career mark lol

with McNeil, Conforto, Almora, Lee, Mazeika, Calixte (31 big league games), Tovar (46) Blankenhorn (8) and Drew Jackson (3) behind him. Has to be the most MLB games played in one AAA lineup in quite a while.

In comment 15287948 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

with McNeil, Conforto, Almora, Lee, Mazeika, Calixte (31 big league games), Tovar (46) Blankenhorn (8) and Drew Jackson (3) behind him. Has to be the most MLB games played in one AAA lineup in quite a while.

AAA (minor league baseball in general) is awesome for that for fans especially.

I went to a Pawtucket Red Sox game when Jon Lester was making a start recovering from cancer, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie were still prospects there - just kind of cool to see it. I also saw Manny make a rehab appearance in Pawtucket.

In comment 15287941 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 15287922 JB_in_DC said: Quote: In comment 15287908 DanMetroMan said: Quote: McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually. McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors. By the way his BABIP is .313 with the Mets and his ISO (.380) would be 40 points higher than Babe Ruth's career mark lol

Was looking at his full season stats - with the 100 PAs as Brewer - 104 wRC+. Will be interesting to see how he goes. Obviously no real expectation that he can be 115+, but don't need him to be.

In comment 15287955 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 15287948 DanMetroMan said: Quote: with McNeil, Conforto, Almora, Lee, Mazeika, Calixte (31 big league games), Tovar (46) Blankenhorn (8) and Drew Jackson (3) behind him. Has to be the most MLB games played in one AAA lineup in quite a while. AAA (minor league baseball in general) is awesome for that for fans especially. I went to a Pawtucket Red Sox game when Jon Lester was making a start recovering from cancer, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie were still prospects there - just kind of cool to see it. I also saw Manny make a rehab appearance in Pawtucket.

Yeah, if you get lucky you can see some fun lineups. This one is especially fun given you have 2 "big name" regulars, 2 "top" prospects in the system (Szapucki/Lee), a known player (Almora) and guys like Tovar who all Mets fans know. I was actually surprised Tovar only appeared in 46 big league games. Felt like more...

- maybe 2001 - my wife said she wanted to check out Portland, ME.

So, I found a day when the Binghamton Mets were playing the Portland sea dogs (formerly a Marlins farm team) and suggested it and it worked.

I wound up dragging her to a double header - lol - it was awesome. $6 for the good seats, lol.

the first game Josh Beckett shutout the Mets and had like 15 k's. I thought he was going to the HOF. Such a good young pitcher. Later that summer he no-hit Binghamton - in Bing.

In comment 15287975 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

- maybe 2001 - my wife said she wanted to check out Portland, ME. So, I found a day when the Binghamton Mets were playing the Portland sea dogs (formerly a Marlins farm team) and suggested it and it worked. I wound up dragging her to a double header - lol - it was awesome. $6 for the good seats, lol. the first game Josh Beckett shutout the Mets and had like 15 k's. I thought he was going to the HOF. Such a good young pitcher. Later that summer he no-hit Binghamton - in Bing.

Those are always fun. I saw post-injury Brien Taylor which was sad but kinda cool to see him anyway, Javy Vazquez also pitched in that game and he had a nice career.