Syracuse
McNeil 1-4 2 k's (just missed a granny)
Blankenhorn 1-4, 2 BB
Lee 0-4, BB, SB, 3 k's
Almora 1-3, BB
Nogosek....1.1 innings 6 hits 7 runs 1 walk 1 k (arguably the worst line from any Mets P this season, yikes)
Bing
Cortes 2-4, BB (OPS up to .911)
Mangum 0-4, 2 k's
Vientos 2-4, BB, K (He's struggled but over his last 5 games he's reached base 8 times)
BK
Mauricio 1-4
Baty 1-4, 3 k's
Alvarez 1-4, K
Lasko 6 innings 3 hits 1 run 0 walks 4 k's
St. Lucie
Ramirez 1-4, HR, BB, K (First professional HR)
Suozzi 2-5
Palmer 1-5, K
Ginn 4 innings 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 5 k's (To me, easily the player of the day in the system)
I know Lee is still young, but I am worried they missed on him, and would be better off having Winckowski and Valdez. Being in Marlins country, he strikes me as too similar to Harrison and Brinson. Toolsy players who never put it together because they can't make contact in MLB. In full disclosure, I thought Jazz Chisholm would be similar, but was dead wrong. Hope I am wrong on my concerns with Lee
Did they say what position McNeil was playing at SYR ?? He may have to think about 3B when he comes back.
Luis G has been lights out at 2B. Did you see him get in position for that relay throw late in the game last night ??
Stuff is run of the mill. 89/92, CB/CU neither considered plus. He’s pitching well but he’s not viewed as much of a prospect. Ya never know.
Did they say what position McNeil was playing at SYR ?? He may have to think about 3B when he comes back.
Luis G has been lights out at 2B. Did you see him get in position for that relay throw late in the game last night ??
2B, will see some time in the OF as well. No mention of 3B
@djshort
·
6m
Amed Rosario taking some legit steps forward
- Lowest swing rate of his career
- Career-low chase rate at 30.9% compared to 40.3% in '20
- More disciplined, swinging at better pitches, leading to a career-best 42.2% hard-hit rate
- .284 BA fully backed up by a .290 xBA
20 homers
80 rbis
30 doubles
his isolated slg% is right at .200, which is basically Conforto/Dom Smith territory (higher than a typical McNeil/Nimmo season, lower than Alonso).
his 8% walk rate is also decent, and again comparable to Dominic Smith (who has typically been between 7-9% as a big leaguer). With his performance being most comparable to Dom, if we go back to Dom's first season at AA (also at age 21) Vientos' numbers actually project to both more homers and more doubles, however Dom put his numbers up while also hitting .300.
So where is Vientos struggling? 2 places. He is K'ing a lot right now (34% of the time, more than double the rate Dom Smith K'd at that age in AA) and he only has 12 singles on the year. He actually has as many XBH as he does singles. Dom had 101 singles in his a21 season at AA, Vientos projects to about 50 (but with the aforementioned more XBH).
Now there's certainly a built in excuse for all minor leaguers after last year, and especially those that had to make bigger jumps up in competition level. But over the 2nd half of the season imo the key thing to hopefully see is enough bat control that his K% that comes down into the low to mid-20's and a BA rising over .250. Even if it's at the expense of some of those XBH. We know the raw power and exit velocities are there. Better bat control is what will take him from an interesting prospect to an exciting one.
@djshort
·
6m
Amed Rosario taking some legit steps forward
- Lowest swing rate of his career
- Career-low chase rate at 30.9% compared to 40.3% in '20
- More disciplined, swinging at better pitches, leading to a career-best 42.2% hard-hit rate
- .284 BA fully backed up by a .290 xBA
He proved he can hit a few years ago and not sure if you saw the article from SIS but it turned out their defensive grades for all players at citi field and a few other stadiums were wrong because of the camera setups, and when they went back and revised their numbers to fix the error Rosario had been negatively impacted more than any other player in the sport. So it turns out his defense was closer to league average all along (which is funny because I think we all often remarked how strange it was that his defense graded out so poorly when he seemed to not be that bad, and for some stretches like 2nd half 2019 pretty good).
Did they say what position McNeil was playing at SYR ?? He may have to think about 3B when he comes back.
Luis G has been lights out at 2B. Did you see him get in position for that relay throw late in the game last night ??
You can't move Villar off of 3rd. Guillorme will be the supersub at the 3 IF positions.
yup. his teammate Carlos Cortes is having a really strong run at AA and he's a year and a half older, and he played CBB, and he got time at A+.
power numbers are typically late arriving so the fact that Vientos is showing good power now gives me some confidence that he will be able to make some adjustments as he ages into more normal territory for the levels he's playing at. he's checking the more difficult box, literally all he needs to do is replace a few K's with singles each week.
The Team 980
@team980
Former MLB clubhouse manager alleges giving foreign substance to #Nats' Max Scherzer.
Dom was a higher profile prospect, no question - that's why he was a first round pick and Vientos wasn't. He was a more polished hitter with raw power that hadn't showed up in games yet - which is why he was mostly considered disappointing as a prospect by fans (recall a lot of discussion about him projecting to be a light hitting 1b).
Vientos is the reverse. But we've seen how Dom's power has developed, it's not nothing that at 21 years old Vientos' game power is ahead of where Dom's was. Not sure how their raw power compared at the same age (both were considered plus but not sure whose is better).
The Team 980
@team980
Former MLB clubhouse manager alleges giving foreign substance to #Nats' Max Scherzer.
Wainwright openly said he used stuff, as did Glasnow, basically as has most pitchers in baseball. This won't ding Scherzer at all.
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Love Ginn's line, Love Lasko's line.....hate Nogosek's
Did they say what position McNeil was playing at SYR ?? He may have to think about 3B when he comes back.
Luis G has been lights out at 2B. Did you see him get in position for that relay throw late in the game last night ??
You can't move Villar off of 3rd. Guillorme will be the supersub at the 3 IF positions.
Agreed, though subject to change should players struggle. No issues having too much depth when players are healthy.
One good thing about all the injuries is it has gotten a lot of depth guys some playing time, and they have upgraded the depth as a result. A fully healthy IF with Villar, Lindor, McNeil, and Alonso and Davis and Guillorme on the bench gives them some options. Davis can play vs some lefties. Guillorme can be a defensive replacement and get some starts to give players rest.
Same thing with the OF with Smith, Nimmo, and Conforto, as well as Pillar and McKinney backing up. Smith/Alonso come out for defensive purposes if need be.
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use Dom as a comparison, Dom was a dominant HS hitter (top 3 in the nation) and at 19 was already ranked #63 by BA and at 21 (Vientos age) was #71 on BA's list and 63 on MLB's list
Dom was a higher profile prospect, no question - that's why he was a first round pick and Vientos wasn't. He was a more polished hitter with raw power that hadn't showed up in games yet - which is why he was mostly considered disappointing as a prospect by fans (recall a lot of discussion about him projecting to be a light hitting 1b).
Vientos is the reverse. But we've seen how Dom's power has developed, it's not nothing that at 21 years old Vientos' game power is ahead of where Dom's was. Not sure how their raw power compared at the same age (both were considered plus but not sure whose is better).
I think you have this reversed. Optimism for guys who have yet to hit for power but have hit for average, walked at a decent rate, decent K rate but the power is "yet to come". It's less common for big power guys without the other stuff to "develop" a strong eye at the plate or cut down on k's significantly. It happens but the Dom Smith profile is far more common.
Fortunately, I don't think the Mets need to do anything major barring injury. I see them adding another reliever possibly and a backend SP. And the SP could always be a guy like a Hamels or a Porcello.
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unfortunate that the Mets don't have many guys outside of the "big 3" putting up numbers to this point. It will make it harder to pull off trades.
Fortunately, I don't think the Mets need to do anything major barring injury. I see them adding another reliever possibly and a backend SP. And the SP could always be a guy like a Hamels or a Porcello.
Sounds like Hamels isn't even ready to schedule workouts so he's not really an option. You're looking at likely 2 months before he's on the field for anybody.
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but not sure it should be (even if Mets get caught up in it).
The Team 980
@team980
Former MLB clubhouse manager alleges giving foreign substance to #Nats' Max Scherzer.
Wainwright openly said he used stuff, as did Glasnow, basically as has most pitchers in baseball. This won't ding Scherzer at all.
It should is my point.
and Glasnow sounded very whiny in his press conference
I don't get why players ever felt it was ok to put sunscreen on the baseball for a better grip because they didn't get busted for it. It was never ok to do.
and then it morphed - just like sign stealing into putting a new/different substance on the ball to help spin rate.
All these guys cheated. Hey I corked my bat to make it lighter. I took steroids so I could swing faster and recover quicker. I took greenies so I had more energy.
it's all the same bullshit.
it's all cheating or none of it is.
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Love Ginn's line, Love Lasko's line.....hate Nogosek's
Did they say what position McNeil was playing at SYR ?? He may have to think about 3B when he comes back.
Luis G has been lights out at 2B. Did you see him get in position for that relay throw late in the game last night ??
You can't move Villar off of 3rd. Guillorme will be the supersub at the 3 IF positions.
Yes indeed and a good 'problem' to have. The improved defense at almost every position has been a pleasure to watch.
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In comment 15287437 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
use Dom as a comparison, Dom was a dominant HS hitter (top 3 in the nation) and at 19 was already ranked #63 by BA and at 21 (Vientos age) was #71 on BA's list and 63 on MLB's list
Dom was a higher profile prospect, no question - that's why he was a first round pick and Vientos wasn't. He was a more polished hitter with raw power that hadn't showed up in games yet - which is why he was mostly considered disappointing as a prospect by fans (recall a lot of discussion about him projecting to be a light hitting 1b).
Vientos is the reverse. But we've seen how Dom's power has developed, it's not nothing that at 21 years old Vientos' game power is ahead of where Dom's was. Not sure how their raw power compared at the same age (both were considered plus but not sure whose is better).
I think you have this reversed. Optimism for guys who have yet to hit for power but have hit for average, walked at a decent rate, decent K rate but the power is "yet to come". It's less common for big power guys without the other stuff to "develop" a strong eye at the plate or cut down on k's significantly. It happens but the Dom Smith profile is far more common.
I don't disagree with your point but we have to start with the fact that it tends to be uncommon for younger players to show plus game power at a younger age. So he starts in a relatively uncommon subset.
Of guys who show power you are correct that it's rare that they can then develop bat control - but prior to this year Vientos has shown bat control over his career when he was playing at levels more appropriate to his age. In his first 3 years as a minor leaguer his K% was in the low to mid 20's. His BA was always over .255 and ranged up to .294. His walk rates bounced around but his current 8% walk rate is close to what is considered league average so that's down the list of concerns.
So there are reasons to believe the current 34% K-rate and .220 BA are outliers due to jumping up to an advanced level after a full year interrupted. We don't need to hope those abilities appear out of nowhere because we've seen it before.
then change the rule. otherwise it's black and white, pitchers put illegal foreign substances on the ball. I'm sure not all of them did - so it's the same PED argument.
Canseco says 75% (at least) of players took PED's - how is it different?
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it's mostly because "everybody" was on board with it. Hitters felt more comfortable in the box with pitchers having some improved command. Even Donaldson (something of a whistleblower) flat out said he was fine with rosin and sunscreen but not this new stuff. I have no clue if deGrom used it (his teammates swear he didn't) but I can flat out guarantee members of the Mets rotation did. Stroman's spin rate notably dropped for one.
then change the rule. otherwise it's black and white, pitchers put illegal foreign substances on the ball. I'm sure not all of them did - so it's the same PED argument.
Canseco says 75% (at least) of players took PED's - how is it different?
Agreed 100%. Drives me nuts. And the most annoying is all the hypocrites on the issue. Fans who have blasted the Astros for cheating are now defending this shit and criticizing MLB for cracking down on it. Be consistent. Either you want to allow cheating in the sport or you don't. This "this cheating is really bad, but this one is acceptable because my ace pitcher does it" bullshit is nauseating.
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it's mostly because "everybody" was on board with it. Hitters felt more comfortable in the box with pitchers having some improved command. Even Donaldson (something of a whistleblower) flat out said he was fine with rosin and sunscreen but not this new stuff. I have no clue if deGrom used it (his teammates swear he didn't) but I can flat out guarantee members of the Mets rotation did. Stroman's spin rate notably dropped for one.
then change the rule. otherwise it's black and white, pitchers put illegal foreign substances on the ball. I'm sure not all of them did - so it's the same PED argument.
Canseco says 75% (at least) of players took PED's - how is it different?
Well first and foremost, they gave them the rosin bag to do exactly what these guys are trying to do. Pitchers often said the rosin bags did not help unless it was warm and/or they had enough sweat to "activate" the rosin. Use of sunscreen for grip is nothing new and even the umpires were aware of it.
Bauer: “Allow it. I don’t see that there’s a way to enforce it, because you can’t go check a pitcher every single inning, every single pitch, and that’s currently how it is. You can get thrown out of a game and suspended for it if an umpire comes out and checks and finds out. But, it doesn’t happen. So, pick a substance that’s sticky, that gives you all the performance benefits, and just put it on the back of the mound. That way, if you want to use it you can and everybody knows it’s being used. And, if you want to use other substances and skirt the rule, whatever. Have a certain amount of outlawed substances — vaseline or whatever. But, if you want to use sticky stuff, it’s right there on the mound. Put your fingers on it and throw.
“A lot of hitters are fine with it, because like it’s been said, they don’t want projectiles flying at 100 mph at their head and the pitcher has no clue where it’s going. And over 69-percent of the league probably uses it anyway, so there’s not really a whole lot of difference. But, just make it legal, so that way it’s an even playing field. And that way, when I want to use surgical-grade stuff on my stitches on the backside of a pinky finger that’s never going to touch the ball and has no affect on the game at all, I can use it and not be thrown out of the game or whatever. Meanwhile, while I can’t use that stuff so I can pitch for my team in the postseason, you have guys using sticky stuff every single time they pitch, increasing their spin rate by 200–300 RPM and having a massive competitive advantage.”
Does Dom walk enough to justify playing 1b?
Recall his K-rate also spiked up significantly when he hit a level that challenged him (MLB), and has since improved it without his walk rate being impacted. In his first 300 at bats at the MLB level his K rate was near double what it was in his prior minor league career and walk rate was almost half of what it had been prior around 5% (and similar to Vientos' stat line right now his isolated slg% was actually higher). It took 3 years but he was able to make adjustments that brought him more in line with his prior norms.
No previous player is predictive of any other player's development but Dom's A21 AA season is likely our closest recent apples/apples comparison for Vientos. I don't know how it's anything but a good thing if he can continue to hover anywhere near that trajectory.
That is from 2014. 7 years ago. Since then the game has been trending way too much to the point of pitchers. 6 no-hitters or whatever this year so far. Batting average was down to like .237 a few weeks ago. Strikeouts have gone up every year for about 10-12 years.
MLB has every right to crackdown on it if they feel it is for the betterment of the game. MLB felt it was going too far. Just like they felt the Astros and Sox were going too far in how they were stealing signs. Just like they felt players were going too far in their use of steroids.
Logenhagen had Vientos at #130 in February and I believe he's even cracked a few top 100's (or been HM?) previously. I think Law even had him in his top 50 at one point but not sure which site he was writing on then and can't seem to find it. So being high on Vientos isn't some completely off the wall opinion - the scouting community has been high on his talent since he entered the draft.
And it goes without saying plenty of players not on top 100 lists have MLB careers and plenty of players on them don't. I think there are some very good writers in the baseball media scouting community but designating an arbitrary number of players supposedly much better than others is just that, arbitrary. There are a handful of truly elite prospects each year and then a lot of maybes. The maybes who have good statistical years move up lists the ones who dont move down the lists. The same way Francisco Lindor probably wouldn't rank as high on a top 100 players in MLB list this year as he would have last year.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
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"It is a fairly well-known fact, by this point, that teams do not care if pitchers apply a foreign substance to a ball so long as it’s for purposes of grip, which hitters reason keeps them safer. MLB doesn’t seem to mind, either, rarely meting out discipline even though Rule 8.02(a)(4) says pitchers cannot “apply a foreign substance of any kind to the ball.” Whether it was pine tar or a sunscreen-and-rosin combination that oozed on Pineda’s right palm, the Boston Red Sox thought so little of it that they shrugged it off. Which, considering their recent history with pitchers caught using foreign substances, was exactly how they should’ve handled it."
That is from 2014. 7 years ago. Since then the game has been trending way too much to the point of pitchers. 6 no-hitters or whatever this year so far. Batting average was down to like .237 a few weeks ago. Strikeouts have gone up every year for about 10-12 years.
MLB has every right to crackdown on it if they feel it is for the betterment of the game. MLB felt it was going too far. Just like they felt the Astros and Sox were going too far in how they were stealing signs. Just like they felt players were going too far in their use of steroids.
I'm not "defending" pitchers. (Though the game sure didn't look like it was trending towards pitchers previously, why else do you think they opted to change the balls?). But to do this in-season is farcical. Eno Sarris has been reporting on this since 2018, Bauer openly talked about this, he openly talked about working with labs on substances. What changed this week? Nothing. This should have been handled before the season and it's very possible Glasnow is speaking the truth.
It's like the old argument, "I can't rape her. She's my wife." Um, yes you can. Just because she may have consented 9,000 times in the past doesn't mean she doesn't have the right to not allow it if she doesn't.
It is a balance that MLB has gone through throughout its history. They are always trying to maintain a balance between hitting and pitching, and rules changes will take effect when it swings much to one side. And I will say that I would assume the average casual fan tunes in more for offense, which would make MLB more sensitive to the game being way too much in favor of the pitchers.
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I really think you're being selective here. He's striking out at at an absurdly high rate, yes his walk rate is acceptable for AA if he maintains that while also significantly cutting his K rate but that remains to be seen. Pretty clearly the scouting community isn't as optimistic about this than you given his standing on the major lists.
Logenhagen had Vientos at #130 in February and I believe he's even cracked a few top 100's (or been HM?) previously. I think Law even had him in his top 50 at one point but not sure which site he was writing on then and can't seem to find it. So being high on Vientos isn't some completely off the wall opinion - the scouting community has been high on his talent since he entered the draft.
And it goes without saying plenty of players not on top 100 lists have MLB careers and plenty of players on them don't. I think there are some very good writers in the baseball media scouting community but designating an arbitrary number of players supposedly much better than others is just that, arbitrary. There are a handful of truly elite prospects each year and then a lot of maybes. The maybes who have good statistical years move up lists the ones who dont move down the lists. The same way Francisco Lindor probably wouldn't rank as high on a top 100 players in MLB list this year as he would have last year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
Vientos did not make their recent update which goes to 138 so that would suggest (at worst) his stock is down, not up or neutral. Vientos made Keith Law's list before the 2019 (#60) season, he's left him off his last 2 top 100 lists which should tell you his opinion has been downgraded no?
Pineda was ejected from the game and suspended 10 days
Red Sox shrugged it offl LOL, better scrub the internet...the justification for cheating is so selective - you can make an argument for cheating any way you want.
and like sign stealing, Cole's texts clearly took this "accepted practice of cheating" to a whole different level.
spider tack wasn't just for grip, it's almost like the guy who takes PEDs or HgH because he's recovering from an injury.
All this shit makes a mockery out of the sport and if you don't see that or say "everyone was doing it" there is your cognitive dissonance
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In comment 15287536 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
"It is a fairly well-known fact, by this point, that teams do not care if pitchers apply a foreign substance to a ball so long as it’s for purposes of grip, which hitters reason keeps them safer. MLB doesn’t seem to mind, either, rarely meting out discipline even though Rule 8.02(a)(4) says pitchers cannot “apply a foreign substance of any kind to the ball.” Whether it was pine tar or a sunscreen-and-rosin combination that oozed on Pineda’s right palm, the Boston Red Sox thought so little of it that they shrugged it off. Which, considering their recent history with pitchers caught using foreign substances, was exactly how they should’ve handled it."
That is from 2014. 7 years ago. Since then the game has been trending way too much to the point of pitchers. 6 no-hitters or whatever this year so far. Batting average was down to like .237 a few weeks ago. Strikeouts have gone up every year for about 10-12 years.
MLB has every right to crackdown on it if they feel it is for the betterment of the game. MLB felt it was going too far. Just like they felt the Astros and Sox were going too far in how they were stealing signs. Just like they felt players were going too far in their use of steroids.
I'm not "defending" pitchers. (Though the game sure didn't look like it was trending towards pitchers previously, why else do you think they opted to change the balls?). But to do this in-season is farcical. Eno Sarris has been reporting on this since 2018, Bauer openly talked about this, he openly talked about working with labs on substances. What changed this week? Nothing. This should have been handled before the season and it's very possible Glasnow is speaking the truth.
It's not that something changed this week, per se. It's how the game has continued to change for the past 10-12 years. More strikeouts. Lower BA. Less action. This year, we are more than a 1/3 of the way in and it has reached a peak. 6 no-hitters. League BA below .240. More strikeouts than ever. Less balls in play than ever.
287/.389/.489 with 12 doubles, 11 home runs with a 37/43 BB/K
2019+2020 his BB/K has been 32 walks vs. 152 k's, and his OBP has been .298, so of course his stock is different now than it was as an 18 year old coming off a nice season.
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"It is a fairly well-known fact, by this point, that teams do not care if pitchers apply a foreign substance to a ball so long as it’s for purposes of grip, which hitters reason keeps them safer. MLB doesn’t seem to mind, either, rarely meting out discipline even though Rule 8.02(a)(4) says pitchers cannot “apply a foreign substance of any kind to the ball.” Whether it was pine tar or a sunscreen-and-rosin combination that oozed on Pineda’s right palm, the Boston Red Sox thought so little of it that they shrugged it off. Which, considering their recent history with pitchers caught using foreign substances, was exactly how they should’ve handled it."
Pineda was ejected from the game and suspended 10 days
Red Sox shrugged it offl LOL, better scrub the internet...the justification for cheating is so selective - you can make an argument for cheating any way you want.
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...Pineda had already been warned, by the same Red Sox after a similar incident in a game earlier this year, to at least be a bit more discreet about using the illegal substance, which is widely used by pitchers throughout the league. Pine tar doesn’t alter the flight of a baseball, the way spit would in the old days, so it’s been quietly tolerated. Within limits. If there’s one thing the Red Sox won’t tolerate, it’s cheaters who refuse to cheat by the rules. ...
and like sign stealing, Cole's texts clearly took this "accepted practice of cheating" to a whole different level.
spider tack wasn't just for grip, it's almost like the guy who takes PEDs or HgH because he's recovering from an injury.
All this shit makes a mockery out of the sport and if you don't see that or say "everyone was doing it" there is your cognitive dissonance
Who is defending spider tack? It's clearly gone too far but Josh Donaldson was maybe the first to cite actual "cheaters" and even he supported using sun screen and rosin etc. So what does that tell you?
Logenhagen has forgotten more than I will ever know about prospects (Vientos included) but not sure how easy it is for anyone to accurately evaluate off 29 games at a new level, after a lost year for everyone. If he's watching every prospect in baseball to that level accurately all the power to him.
Also here's the link to Law's 2019 list where he had Vientos ranked #60 so I was little bit off, but he did have him as the top prospect in the NYM system. It's insider but there's not much in his scouting report that has changed too much unless we think Viento's current k-rate is un-improvable (and I see no reason to think that).
60. Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets
Vientos has been a bit of a forgotten man in the Mets' system, with more highly touted prospects around him, some playing at higher levels, as well as undue attention given to a publicity stunt in their Double-A outfield last year. But trades and Vientos' own progress have him as the system's best prospect now, and he is set to spend all of 2019 in full-season ball at age 19 after a very strong summer with short-season Kingsport as a true 18-year-old. Vientos finished tied for fourth in the Appalachian League in homers, fifth in walks and tied for 11th in doubles, with a swing optimized for launch angle but that also gets the barrel into the zone for enough time to maximize his hard contact.
A poor defensive shortstop in high school, Vientos has become an adequate defender at third, still improving but also still growing into his 6-foot-4 frame, so there's some chance he has to move off the position just due to sheer size. His OBP/contact/power profile should play anywhere, with his best chance to be a star coming at third but a high probability that he will be a regular even in right field or at first base.
(vientos had a respectable year at Columbus in the year following this write-up, then obviously last year happened).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25852941/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-100-51 - ( New Window )
But how much of that can the league control? They can't tell players you can't swing for the HR. They can't increase "punishments" if you K. They could outlaw the shift, I guess, but that is controversial.
Pitchers using foreign substances is the one thing the league can control to try and get some more offense in the game
"Just think about how many pitches I've seen in my career, think about Nelson Cruz, a lot of these guys who have seen a lot of pitches," he said. "We know when stuff's up. It's hard to probably find the ingredient to what's causing that. But now that there's been some enlightenment to that, that's why you're seeing guys take a stance on it."
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who had been the high man on him, dropped him completely off the fangraphs board (from 105) so it's not just my "unfair" take. It's 29 games into the season but at some point "offense only" power prospects need to show signs, to this point he has not.
Logenhagen has forgotten more than I will ever know about prospects (Vientos included) but not sure how easy it is for anyone to accurately evaluate off 29 games at a new level, after a lost year for everyone. If he's watching every prospect in baseball to that level accurately all the power to him.
Also here's the link to Law's 2019 list where he had Vientos ranked #60 so I was little bit off, but he did have him as the top prospect in the NYM system. It's insider but there's not much in his scouting report that has changed too much unless we think Viento's current k-rate is un-improvable (and I see no reason to think that).
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60. Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets
Vientos has been a bit of a forgotten man in the Mets' system, with more highly touted prospects around him, some playing at higher levels, as well as undue attention given to a publicity stunt in their Double-A outfield last year. But trades and Vientos' own progress have him as the system's best prospect now, and he is set to spend all of 2019 in full-season ball at age 19 after a very strong summer with short-season Kingsport as a true 18-year-old. Vientos finished tied for fourth in the Appalachian League in homers, fifth in walks and tied for 11th in doubles, with a swing optimized for launch angle but that also gets the barrel into the zone for enough time to maximize his hard contact.
A poor defensive shortstop in high school, Vientos has become an adequate defender at third, still improving but also still growing into his 6-foot-4 frame, so there's some chance he has to move off the position just due to sheer size. His OBP/contact/power profile should play anywhere, with his best chance to be a star coming at third but a high probability that he will be a regular even in right field or at first base.
(vientos had a respectable year at Columbus in the year following this write-up, then obviously last year happened). https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25852941/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-100-51 - ( New Window )
He left Vientos off his 2020 list aka he clearly thought less of him than he did prior. That's a 40+ slot drop. You don't agree that implies he liked him less despite a "respectable season"? If Law has been anything it's been consistent on guys he liked. He never gave up on Dom Smith and went down swinging with awful Cecchini.
But how much of that can the league control? They can't tell players you can't swing for the HR. They can't increase "punishments" if you K. They could outlaw the shift, I guess, but that is controversial.
Pitchers using foreign substances is the one thing the league can control to try and get some more offense in the game
I can bet you anything that the league will suddenly allow some sort of approved substance next season (assuming there is a next season)
why? MLB didn't have a rule specifically banning an performance enhancing substance.
Now McGwire (just using him as an example) as we now know did worse than that, maybe just like players who openly discuss using a substance that helps them get a better grip on the ball - when in reality they are doing things to increase spin rate.
the right thing to do is change the rules, like with sign stealing, like with PEDs it's not to have unwritten rules or in this case - actual rules that are just not enforced.
Maybe if a pitcher is so wild without putting something on the ball he shouldn't be a major league pitcher - think about the guy in the minors struggling to make it to the majors who doesn't use foreign substances on the ball to help him - that guys jobs is potentially being stolen by a cheater - sounds a lot like the PED argument, right?
anyway, no need to further this - we can agree to disagree - to me there are rules, rules should be enforced (or changed) and breaking the rules should have consequences, once you decide to not enforce some rules you are creating a slippery slope - or a mockery of your sport.
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increased Ks, lower BA, and less action. Among them are the shift, the focus on launch angle, the culture change in strikeouts no longer being an embarrassment, analytics favoring HR ball vs station to station baseball.
But how much of that can the league control? They can't tell players you can't swing for the HR. They can't increase "punishments" if you K. They could outlaw the shift, I guess, but that is controversial.
Pitchers using foreign substances is the one thing the league can control to try and get some more offense in the game
I can bet you anything that the league will suddenly allow some sort of approved substance next season (assuming there is a next season)
Which I am fine with. It is their prerogative. It's the old tale of give em an inch, they'll take a mile. It has gotten so bad that baseball is banning them all. They may do some research and studies and say X is fine, but Y is not.
Swap Vientos to BKLN for Baty and how do you think the stats and narratives around each of them potentially change? The context of how old players are relative to the league they play in is kind of a big deal. As is if they've been forced to skip an entire level like Vientos was.
Not worried about him one bit. He's a baby. 18 years old.
Swap Vientos to BKLN for Baty and how do you think the stats and narratives around each of them potentially change? The context of how old players are relative to the league they play in is kind of a big deal. As is if they've been forced to skip an entire level like Vientos was.
First first and foremost, Baty is looking more and more like an MLB 3b so that alone is a huge difference between the 2, Baty also showed advanced plate discipline as a 19 year old, which again (as we discussed above) is a major building block offensively. 35 walks over 188 ab's at 19 gives you something to dream on. Jarrett Seidler, Kevin Goldstein and Jeff Paternosto have all given different levels of "sold" on Baty after in-person scouting this year. It's not all about reading the statlines.
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Ramirez who has been off to a rough start to his career just singled after hitting his first professional HR yesterday.
Not worried about him one bit. He's a baby. 18 years old.
I'm not worried about him either, he's struggled out of the gate. No biggy.
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even when they do top 100 lists at the pro levels they vary wildly year to year, guys who have career years move up and guys who have down years move down. Sometimes players have down years. If I recall correctly the full season in Columbia was an aggressive placement for Vientos and AA off a lost year is an aggressive placement as well.
Swap Vientos to BKLN for Baty and how do you think the stats and narratives around each of them potentially change? The context of how old players are relative to the league they play in is kind of a big deal. As is if they've been forced to skip an entire level like Vientos was.
First first and foremost, Baty is looking more and more like an MLB 3b so that alone is a huge difference between the 2, Baty also showed advanced plate discipline as a 19 year old, which again (as we discussed above) is a major building block offensively. 35 walks over 188 ab's at 19 gives you something to dream on. Jarrett Seidler, Kevin Goldstein and Jeff Paternosto have all given different levels of "sold" on Baty after in-person scouting this year. It's not all about reading the statlines.
the relationship between impressive statlines and writers being "sold" is quite high. just a guess but I think the writing community ebbs and flows with their assessments far more impatiently than the real scouts employed by mlb teams do. The media business model necessitates listicles, hot takes, clickbait, and driving readership/subscribers. Far more than boring caveats about being patient because some players need more time to adjust than others.
What role was he supposed to play? I never quite understood the appeal. Not special defensively or offensively from what I could tell.
from the argument or from vientos?
apart from that I think it's fair to acknowledge that nobody is clairvoyant and nobody knows how these guys will progress (especially true the younger the players are and even moreso after last year's unique interuption). In 2013 nobody would believe JDG would be pumping out 102 mph fastballs regularly. Multiple whose opinions we all respect said Alonso was unplayable in the field. Even this past offseason how many crapped on Taijuan Walker as a guy trading off his former reputation?
i've seen enough players defy odds to believe in the "dont quit on talent" axiom where talent is visible - and to put a bow on my entire diatribe re Vientos the in game power and XBH rate he's showing despite a big jump in comp level is most certainly a talent I would not quit on.
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you're really oversimplifying this. Jarrett Seidler of Baseball Prospectus is a Mets fan, he attended the Cyclones entire homestand 2 weeks ago and came away completely sold on Baty. Kevin Goldstein also came away very impressed with him (though he did think his glove was closer to a 40/80). Again, the buzz Baty is getting is of course related to his numbers but also how he's looked doing it. Vientos sub-300 OBP over a nearly full season of games (2019/2021) is a major red flag. We should probably move on here.
from the argument or from vientos?
Haha sorry from the argument/discussion not from Vientos.
apart from that I think it's fair to acknowledge that nobody is clairvoyant and nobody knows how these guys will progress (especially true the younger the players are and even moreso after last year's unique interuption). In 2013 nobody would believe JDG would be pumping out 102 mph fastballs regularly. Multiple whose opinions we all respect said Alonso was unplayable in the field. Even this past offseason how many crapped on Taijuan Walker as a guy trading off his former reputation?
i've seen enough players defy odds to believe in the "dont quit on talent" axiom where talent is visible - and to put a bow on my entire diatribe re Vientos the in game power and XBH rate he's showing despite a big jump in comp level is most certainly a talent I would not quit on.
Eric,
Of course this is somewhat true but in that situation we might as well say "any prospect with a modicum of talent could end up with a surprising outcome". Mike Trout had 24 people go before him he's a top 10 player ever. Junior Santos (random name pull) could come in next year touching 99 and shock everybody but quite frankly what's the point of these threads? To just look at statlines and say "all of these guys are professionals, they could defy the odds" and leave it there? Of course people can choose to do that, doesn't seem like much "fun" to me.
No different than "well the Giants (I'm using a random player) Elerson Smith round 4 and I'm shocking everybody and becoming Junior Seau. There will be guys like that (Jacob DeGrom) but you look for trends and high strike out, lowish walk, limited defensive players are a low probability to shock. His floor is a non-MLB player, a guy like PCA (unless his shoulder issue completely fucked him) will see the big leagues.
Betances in to pitch
Bauer: “Allow it. I don’t see that there’s a way to enforce it, because you can’t go check a pitcher every single inning, every single pitch, and that’s currently how it is. You can get thrown out of a game and suspended for it if an umpire comes out and checks and finds out. But, it doesn’t happen. So, pick a substance that’s sticky, that gives you all the performance benefits, and just put it on the back of the mound. That way, if you want to use it you can and everybody knows it’s being used. And, if you want to use other substances and skirt the rule, whatever. Have a certain amount of outlawed substances — vaseline or whatever. But, if you want to use sticky stuff, it’s right there on the mound. Put your fingers on it and throw.
“A lot of hitters are fine with it, because like it’s been said, they don’t want projectiles flying at 100 mph at their head and the pitcher has no clue where it’s going. And over 69-percent of the league probably uses it anyway, so there’s not really a whole lot of difference. But, just make it legal, so that way it’s an even playing field. And that way, when I want to use surgical-grade stuff on my stitches on the backside of a pinky finger that’s never going to touch the ball and has no affect on the game at all, I can use it and not be thrown out of the game or whatever. Meanwhile, while I can’t use that stuff so I can pitch for my team in the postseason, you have guys using sticky stuff every single time they pitch, increasing their spin rate by 200–300 RPM and having a massive competitive advantage.”
Q: What do you think the police should do about burglary?
Burglar: Allow it
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Q: What would you suggest MLB do about this?
Bauer: “Allow it. I don’t see that there’s a way to enforce it, because you can’t go check a pitcher every single inning, every single pitch, and that’s currently how it is. You can get thrown out of a game and suspended for it if an umpire comes out and checks and finds out. But, it doesn’t happen. So, pick a substance that’s sticky, that gives you all the performance benefits, and just put it on the back of the mound. That way, if you want to use it you can and everybody knows it’s being used. And, if you want to use other substances and skirt the rule, whatever. Have a certain amount of outlawed substances — vaseline or whatever. But, if you want to use sticky stuff, it’s right there on the mound. Put your fingers on it and throw.
“A lot of hitters are fine with it, because like it’s been said, they don’t want projectiles flying at 100 mph at their head and the pitcher has no clue where it’s going. And over 69-percent of the league probably uses it anyway, so there’s not really a whole lot of difference. But, just make it legal, so that way it’s an even playing field. And that way, when I want to use surgical-grade stuff on my stitches on the backside of a pinky finger that’s never going to touch the ball and has no affect on the game at all, I can use it and not be thrown out of the game or whatever. Meanwhile, while I can’t use that stuff so I can pitch for my team in the postseason, you have guys using sticky stuff every single time they pitch, increasing their spin rate by 200–300 RPM and having a massive competitive advantage.”
Q: What do you think the police should do about burglary?
Burglar: Allow it
Hey, that's happening too lol
I don't expect him to wear a NYM uniform again. No point.
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the job the writers in the scouting community do. I am not in any way trying to minimize far more informed opinions than my own.
apart from that I think it's fair to acknowledge that nobody is clairvoyant and nobody knows how these guys will progress (especially true the younger the players are and even moreso after last year's unique interuption). In 2013 nobody would believe JDG would be pumping out 102 mph fastballs regularly. Multiple whose opinions we all respect said Alonso was unplayable in the field. Even this past offseason how many crapped on Taijuan Walker as a guy trading off his former reputation?
i've seen enough players defy odds to believe in the "dont quit on talent" axiom where talent is visible - and to put a bow on my entire diatribe re Vientos the in game power and XBH rate he's showing despite a big jump in comp level is most certainly a talent I would not quit on.
Eric,
Of course this is somewhat true but in that situation we might as well say "any prospect with a modicum of talent could end up with a surprising outcome". Mike Trout had 24 people go before him he's a top 10 player ever. Junior Santos (random name pull) could come in next year touching 99 and shock everybody but quite frankly what's the point of these threads? To just look at statlines and say "all of these guys are professionals, they could defy the odds" and leave it there? Of course people can choose to do that, doesn't seem like much "fun" to me.
No different than "well the Giants (I'm using a random player) Elerson Smith round 4 and I'm shocking everybody and becoming Junior Seau. There will be guys like that (Jacob DeGrom) but you look for trends and high strike out, lowish walk, limited defensive players are a low probability to shock. His floor is a non-MLB player, a guy like PCA (unless his shoulder issue completely fucked him) will see the big leagues.
of course - but it all depends on what the modicum of talent is. For a hitter exit velocity and XBH rates are among the most important carrying tools (i'd personally put pure contact ability above that but I think that's probably against the grain of current conventional/analytical wisdom).
Vientos is almost quite literally the equivalent of a pitcher consistently hitting upper 90's in games on the gun with decent control and who has flashed plus secondary pitches but not yet developed them consistently.
Betances in to pitch
Geez, in all the Betances trainwreck updates, I missed this one. Double and a single for Ramirez, after a HR last night. Very promising, and finally something to look forward to with St. Lucie.
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Ramirez adds a double.
Betances in to pitch
Geez, in all the Betances trainwreck updates, I missed this one. Double and a single for Ramirez, after a HR last night. Very promising, and finally something to look forward to with St. Lucie.
Betances actually got tagged with a 5th run but I lost interest lol
These same criticisms were leveled at Dom Smith through most of his minor league career. 1B only and wasn't going to produce enough for 1b. Turns out he may be productive enough to make both criticisms incorrect.
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In comment 15287695 DanMetroMan said:
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Ramirez adds a double.
Betances in to pitch
Geez, in all the Betances trainwreck updates, I missed this one. Double and a single for Ramirez, after a HR last night. Very promising, and finally something to look forward to with St. Lucie.
Betances actually got tagged with a 5th run but I lost interest lol
lol. Always love your updates and contributions on everything Mets, but I admittedly lost interest after about 2-3 Betances updates.
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and position player are completely different beasts. A starter can fail into a specific role. A middle reliever, a ROOGY etc. A likely 1b who doesn't get on base has a far, far higher chance of being just that.. a guy who when he makes contact it goes far but little to nothing else. Yankees have the top 2 exit velocity bats in the entire sport in their minor league system Chris Gittens and Connor Cannon, neither is likely much of anything. One is now 27 years old and the other was just traded to them as a PTNL in the Mike Tauchman trade. It's a solid indicator, it's not the end all be all.
These same criticisms were leveled at Dom Smith through most of his minor league career. 1B only and wasn't going to produce enough for 1b. Turns out he may be productive enough to make both criticisms incorrect.
Again, Dom Smith was a .350ish OBP player at the same stage, there is more to build upon with a guy who may possibly grow into power. The concern was Dom would "only" be a Mark Grace/ or on the lower end a Doug Mientkiewicz
That said, my gut tells me Vientos will be traded. I just see guys like PCA, Alvarez, and Baty as guys they don't want to trade (and Allan from the pitching ranks). I see guys like Ginn and Mauricio on that next tier. Where they would for a real good player with some control. Vientos is kind of at that next level where I see him as the type of player teams might have interest at in headlining a deal for a backend SP, and that the Mets would be willing to give up.
Would have been a HR of a draft pick.
Would have been a HR of a draft pick.
PJ, I was only talking about that kind of profile in today's game not Grace per see. 280+ 8-10 homers, 30 doubles, you don't see many 1b like that nowadays
"Other players moving into the back of the list include Cade Cavalli, Roansy Contreras, Shea Langeliers, Jordan Walker, Dillon Dingler, and Brett Baty. Cavalli is putting to bed notions that his four-start stretch of dominance in college was just a fluke. First round college arms should be paving over A-ball hitters but Cavalli has been utterly dominant and is reinforcing confidence that his 2020 breakout at Oklahoma (coming off injury) can be sustained. He also showed up to camp with way more arm strength than expected and that, too, has held. Langeliers fits with Taylor Walls on the list: great defenders at premium positions who have one note offensive profiles suitable at their position. Walker moves in next to fellow elite power prospect Oneil Cruz. Dingler is an ultra-athletic catcher with power. Baty trades places with Mark Vientos as corner bats who need to perform, which Baty has."
I don't know how you do it with Twitter man, I saw a friend of mines page one day discussing the Giants and Victor Cruz's career ending injury and the messages that people put out there about Cruz are absolutely disgusting.
If you're (not you DMM) that kind of person then you have some serious issues and need to re-evaluate your life choices.
I've seen some of that on this site too which is sad, bunch of insecure cowards.
They updated their big board
I don't know how you do it with Twitter man, I saw a friend of mines page one day discussing the Giants and Victor Cruz's career ending injury and the messages that people put out there about Cruz are absolutely disgusting.
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started tweeted kinda cruel things to my tweets simply posting updates on the Betances performance so it was less interesting. Gifs and memes about how done he is aren't too funny to me, I'm sure he's disappointed. I don't want him on the big club but it's still sad (like Harvey).
I don't know how you do it with Twitter man, I saw a friend of mines page one day discussing the Giants and Victor Cruz's career ending injury and the messages that people put out there about Cruz are absolutely disgusting.
sorry for the double
Cardinals have Gorman as well. If they both pan out, will have to move one off 3rd. I'm sure they don't have any complaints about having to make such a decision.
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started tweeted kinda cruel things to my tweets simply posting updates on the Betances performance so it was less interesting. Gifs and memes about how done he is aren't too funny to me, I'm sure he's disappointed. I don't want him on the big club but it's still sad (like Harvey).
I don't know how you do it with Twitter man, I saw a friend of mines page one day discussing the Giants and Victor Cruz's career ending injury and the messages that people put out there about Cruz are absolutely disgusting.
If you're (not you DMM) that kind of person then you have some serious issues and need to re-evaluate your life choices.
I've seen some of that on this site too which is sad, bunch of insecure cowards.
It's one thing to say "terrible start by (insert name" or even "man, (insert name) is really struggling" but stuff like playing player XYZ trash, "stick a fork in him" (a lot of mean stuff about Harvey). I pretty clearly don't have an issue with being critical but when it goes beyond that, I check out.
I also don't remember him ever having the kind of excitement around him that Baty or Alvarez do right now (or that Rosario/Conforto had at their peaks of prospectdom). And honestly I don't know that that was wrong because it's not like he's an MVP candidate now or anything. I think he's likely a solid hitter with some positional versatility and a very good defensive 1b. Maybe there's some more upside but I think he's a level below Alonso as a hitter.
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HOFer or at least a hall of very good-er I know you had only in quotes, but I'd love if Dom had a Mark Grace-like career.
Would have been a HR of a draft pick.
PJ, I was only talking about that kind of profile in today's game not Grace per see. 280+ 8-10 homers, 30 doubles, you don't see many 1b like that nowadays
True, and not to go in an unintended direction - but to show how silly I think that perspective would be - how would Keith Hernandez be viewed today by scouts or others?
I view Keith as a better Mark Grace.
And he is kind of my prototype of what a 1B should be.
Today, he'd be viewed negatively because of a lack of HR power?
Hernandez is a guy who gets snubbed by HOF but has a better case than players like Eddie Murray, Jim Rice and Harold Baines and many more and not a sniff and today he'd likely be relegated to non-prospect status - fields the hell out of the position and hits for everything but HR power (career .821 OPS so it's not like he's Ozzie Smith).
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buzz around Jordan Walker is immense. Apparently hit one 450+ this week, he's 19.
Cardinals have Gorman as well. If they both pan out, will have to move one off 3rd. I'm sure they don't have any complaints about having to make such a decision.
Smart teams go BPA and let the chips fall where they may. Obviously, if the Mets took say for example Henry Davis at 10, despite him being a steal, enthusiasm is tempered by already having Alvarez. We need upper level SP, the 2021 NCAA crop looks weak at the top, don't force it (I like some of them, plenty of worthy candidates, but okay if you don't take one) I'd happy take a Bednar type round 2. Really like Beck as a value pick round 3 or later.
Similarly Olerud's '99 season was worth 8.1 wins above replacement with a wrc of 167. Both better than any year piazza had as a Met.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keith-hernandez/1005706/stats?position=1B - ( New Window )
@theaceofspaeder
Replying to
@theaceofspaeder
The Royals were the first team with a full analytics and video department close by their dugout, doing so in 2015, their World Series Championship year. How they used it, I do not know.
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
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3h
Replying to
@theaceofspaeder
The Yankees had cameras in left, center, and right, all pointing at the pitcher's glove, rather than the catcher, to pick up his grip.
Aaron Judge 2017-18 home - .312/.440/.725
Aaron Judge 2017-18 road - .256/.404/.531
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
·
3h
The Dodgers had an employee who was caught setting up cameras at Minute Maid Park wearing an MLB Polo Shirt, when he should have been wearing a Dodgers Polo, during the 2017 World Series.
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
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3h
This one hurts to say... my favorite player ever... "Chase Utley was the biggest cheater of all-time."
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
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3h
As insane as this sounds, I've heard this from multiple players, Adrian Beltre had a buddy with binoculars in dead center who would wave a beater (undershirt) if he was getting something off speed in 2017.
Beltre 2017 home - .362/.440/.586
Beltre 2017 away - .271/.333/.489
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
·
3h
The Astros "sign stealing" method all came from Beltran, New York and Texas.
Ryan M. Spaeder
@theaceofspaeder
·
3h
Everything Kratzie already said about the Rockies...
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In comment 15287757 pjcas18 said:
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HOFer or at least a hall of very good-er I know you had only in quotes, but I'd love if Dom had a Mark Grace-like career.
Would have been a HR of a draft pick.
PJ, I was only talking about that kind of profile in today's game not Grace per see. 280+ 8-10 homers, 30 doubles, you don't see many 1b like that nowadays
True, and not to go in an unintended direction - but to show how silly I think that perspective would be - how would Keith Hernandez be viewed today by scouts or others?
I view Keith as a better Mark Grace.
And he is kind of my prototype of what a 1B should be.
Today, he'd be viewed negatively because of a lack of HR power?
Hernandez is a guy who gets snubbed by HOF but has a better case than players like Eddie Murray, Jim Rice and Harold Baines and many more and not a sniff and today he'd likely be relegated to non-prospect status - fields the hell out of the position and hits for everything but HR power (career .821 OPS so it's not like he's Ozzie Smith).
Disagree with you on Murray out of those three.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=1998&season1=1998 - ( New Window )
Similarly Olerud's '99 season was worth 8.1 wins above replacement with a wrc of 167. Both better than any year piazza had as a Met. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/keith-hernandez/1005706/stats?position=1B - ( New Window )
So to me Grace was a slightly worse Hernandez. So, if Dom wound up a Mark Grace 2.0 even without the HRs I still think it's a "nailed it" draft pick.
At this point I doubt Dom winds up close to Grace from a career standpoint even though Dom is still only 26, but still would be nice.
I don't think I'd compare Dom to Grace or Olerud anymore because he hasn't shown that kind of bat control. Mark Grace walked twice as often as he struck out. Olerud walked more than he struck out too. Both were career .300 hitters. I don't think Dom will hit that well for his career.
So I'm not sure who I'd compare him to in previous generations but among players in today's game at 1b I think Hosmer still fits. Dom is a little better defensively but despite poor analytics I've always thought Hosmer is a good 1b. His career average is around .280, he K's a little less than Dom and maybe Dom has a little bit more power, but I guess we will see. Prorating out last year's statline Dom would have had a better year than any in Hosmer's career but I don't think that's quite fair. Prorating 2019 seems more likely what his typical good year will be, but who knows.
Dom hasn't played there much this year but when he has he has made some real gems. I know SSS but he has looked far better than previous years when he never looked like his GG reputation. This year he has made some legit GG plays.
Link - ( New Window )
@AnthonyDiComo
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20m
Carlos Carrasco (torn right hamstring) has restarted his throwing program. He's throwing off flat ground right now -- more intensive than a game of catch, but not a true bullpen session off the slope of a mound.
The Mets have remained hopeful that Carrasco can return in July.
I don't think I'd compare Dom to Grace or Olerud anymore because he hasn't shown that kind of bat control. Mark Grace walked twice as often as he struck out. Olerud walked more than he struck out too. Both were career .300 hitters. I don't think Dom will hit that well for his career.
So I'm not sure who I'd compare him to in previous generations but among players in today's game at 1b I think Hosmer still fits. Dom is a little better defensively but despite poor analytics I've always thought Hosmer is a good 1b. His career average is around .280, he K's a little less than Dom and maybe Dom has a little bit more power, but I guess we will see. Prorating out last year's statline Dom would have had a better year than any in Hosmer's career but I don't think that's quite fair. Prorating 2019 seems more likely what his typical good year will be, but who knows.
As a hitter, I like the comp for Dom as Rafael Palmeiro (without the 'roids/hgh). Admittedly, this for me is about who his swing reminds me of, I think Dom has a very similar power stroke from the left side to Raffy. I also think Dom can settle in to that 30-35 homer guy that Raffy was normally...Palmeiro had a smattering of 40 or more homer seasons, three separate 39 homer seasons, a 38 homer season...but I think we know what the deal was there.
Dom is probably going to strike out a good bit more than Palmeiro for his career, though. But that swing with the top hand letting go, everything about Dom's swing reminds me of Palmeiro.
I think he's a 20-30 homer player, .280 BA, .350 OBP, .500 SLG. Solid mid .800's OPS'er with some defensive value.
Imagine having Trout and Ohtani, and being that mediocre. Just unreal
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Wow Link - ( New Window )
Imagine having Trout and Ohtani, and being that mediocre. Just unreal
They have some interesting trade chips and I'd be interested in talking to them lol
I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?).
I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?).
Gray has been absolutely awful recently. Major, major red flags. I think he's hiding an injury. Pass on him.
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also not sure they'd be willing to trade him or if he got an NTC but Mike Minor is having a solid year starting and the Royals are 6 games under - in terms of role fit he'd be great. An extra lefty starter while waiting for Thor/Carrasco to potentially return and if they do he can shift into the BP. Under contract next year with a team option year after that.
I know they love his leadership but gotta think KC would be open to the idea of saving $4m, freeing up payroll next year, and getting back some kind of long shot prospect (Newton?).
Gray has been absolutely awful recently. Major, major red flags. I think he's hiding an injury. Pass on him.
the other way to look at that is lower price of acquisition and maybe with a few weeks off he looks better (he'd be solid before those 2 bad starts pre-DL). He's been out for a couple weeks but resumed throwing BP's. Would certainly want to see him come back and prove he's healthy first.
Heaney 3.64 FIP FA after the season
Quintana 4.44 FIP FA after the season
3 potential options
Well we know the results, he's been truly awful. 17 innings 8 walks vs. 6 k's with an era near 8. Teams don't make moves for guys like that while they are pitching this poorly. If he comes back and pitches better then sure he'd be on the radar
the 1 thing I'd really like to see is a P who can pitch out of the BP or the rotation. I think that would be a big added bonus to whoever they get.
I think he's a 20-30 homer player, .280 BA, .350 OBP, .500 SLG. Solid mid .800's OPS'er with some defensive value.
'19 and '20 he hit homeruns at almost exactly the same rate. 21 homeruns in a total of 397 plate appearances. That's a nice sample over two seasons...prorated out to 650 plate appearances you get 35 homeruns. I don't think he's a 40 homerun guy either, though I think he has an outside chance. And 650 plate appearances shouldn't be too difficult for him if he is a regular in at least 150 games. At least he should get very close to that number.
What may hurt him is late inning substitutions, but at some point in his career he could be someone's everyday first baseman, where that's not a factor (would likely need to be somewhere else). This year he won't get close because of his prolonged cold streaks and lengthy homerun drought. But I think him hitting a homer around once every 18.5 ABs like he was doing for the last two seasons is more of who he is as a hitter than what we've seen this year.
On this Mets team with Alonso, Lindor, JD, Conforto, etc. (when healthy) they don't need a 40 HR guy.
If Dom is a doubles hitter with "good enough" power and OPSs .840 and plays good D whether in LF or at 1B and doesn't strike out a lot - I don't care about his HR power.
Even if he's not a prototypical 1B (like Alonso) he doesn't play 1B exclusively - and he's also probably not a prototypical corner OF and I don't care about that either.
On this Mets team with Alonso, Lindor, JD, Conforto, etc. (when healthy) they don't need a 40 HR guy.
If Dom is a doubles hitter with "good enough" power and OPSs .840 and plays good D whether in LF or at 1B and doesn't strike out a lot - I don't care about his HR power.
Even if he's not a prototypical 1B (like Alonso) he doesn't play 1B exclusively - and he's also probably not a prototypical corner OF and I don't care about that either.
Not to get on a tangent but since Alonso's defense has been so good and with Dom taking to LF (and JDD/McNeil also versatile options) I'd have a hard time justifying a big amount of $ to Conforto unless he comes back and goes beast mode. I'd happily take him on the QO or a reasonable extension but seems like COF is not the best use of resource.
I believe they told McNeil to play OF during his rehab stint - which I assume is because they are happy with how Guillorme/Villar have been playing on the IF and may consider shifting him around at the end of games if they take Dom out. I can't remember but I believe McNeil said 1 of the positions he plays is easier on his legs but I don't remember if it was 2b or LF.
@AnthonyDiComo
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Jun 15
Jeff McNeil will continue his rehab tonight at Triple-A Syracuse, following one game at Class A Brooklyn.
Luis Rojas said today that McNeil (strained left hamstring) could play a game in left field while on assignment, though he will return to his primary position of 2B in NY.
the 2 most obvious ways I could see him making sense out there are:
1. more injuries (or setbacks)
2. if they want to get Guillorme in at 2b and Dom out late in games
I'm generally a fan of letting players stick to 1 position but McNeil wasn't playing a very good 2b this year and he has played very well in LF the last few years, so this seems like a good idea. This year of all years it seems like a good idea to be prepared for anything.
McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.
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McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually.
McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.
I wasn’t looking to knock McKinney but I’m pretty confident he’s not a 1.005 OPS player. That would be good for 5th in the entire league.
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McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually.
McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.
By the way his BABIP is .313 with the Mets and his ISO (.380) would be 40 points higher than Babe Ruth's career mark lol
AAA (minor league baseball in general) is awesome for that for fans especially.
I went to a Pawtucket Red Sox game when Jon Lester was making a start recovering from cancer, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie were still prospects there - just kind of cool to see it. I also saw Manny make a rehab appearance in Pawtucket.
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In comment 15287908 DanMetroMan said:
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McKinney isn't THIS good but he looks like a legit MLB player, really expect them to send Almora to AAA once his rehab is up. I'd even dislike DFAing Williams (he's looked decent) but it will get tricky eventually.
McKinney's BABIP is only .265 so he's been a bit unlucky so far, which bodes well for him being able to keep it up. Really nice find given the state of Mets OFs in the upper minors.
By the way his BABIP is .313 with the Mets and his ISO (.380) would be 40 points higher than Babe Ruth's career mark lol
Was looking at his full season stats - with the 100 PAs as Brewer - 104 wRC+. Will be interesting to see how he goes. Obviously no real expectation that he can be 115+, but don't need him to be.
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with McNeil, Conforto, Almora, Lee, Mazeika, Calixte (31 big league games), Tovar (46) Blankenhorn (8) and Drew Jackson (3) behind him. Has to be the most MLB games played in one AAA lineup in quite a while.
AAA (minor league baseball in general) is awesome for that for fans especially.
I went to a Pawtucket Red Sox game when Jon Lester was making a start recovering from cancer, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie were still prospects there - just kind of cool to see it. I also saw Manny make a rehab appearance in Pawtucket.
Yeah, if you get lucky you can see some fun lineups. This one is especially fun given you have 2 "big name" regulars, 2 "top" prospects in the system (Szapucki/Lee), a known player (Almora) and guys like Tovar who all Mets fans know. I was actually surprised Tovar only appeared in 46 big league games. Felt like more...
So, I found a day when the Binghamton Mets were playing the Portland sea dogs (formerly a Marlins farm team) and suggested it and it worked.
I wound up dragging her to a double header - lol - it was awesome. $6 for the good seats, lol.
the first game Josh Beckett shutout the Mets and had like 15 k's. I thought he was going to the HOF. Such a good young pitcher. Later that summer he no-hit Binghamton - in Bing.
So, I found a day when the Binghamton Mets were playing the Portland sea dogs (formerly a Marlins farm team) and suggested it and it worked.
I wound up dragging her to a double header - lol - it was awesome. $6 for the good seats, lol.
the first game Josh Beckett shutout the Mets and had like 15 k's. I thought he was going to the HOF. Such a good young pitcher. Later that summer he no-hit Binghamton - in Bing.
Those are always fun. I saw post-injury Brien Taylor which was sad but kinda cool to see him anyway, Javy Vazquez also pitched in that game and he had a nice career.