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Williams is No. 7 on a list of the NFL’s best defensive tackles assembled by ESPN. The list was compiled by asking more than 50 coaches, execs, and scouts from across the NFL. The participants gave their best 10 to 15 players at the positing and then ESPN collated the information to formulate their list. Defensive tackle has arguablybeen the Giants strongest position group on the roster, and the deepest. New York just retained Williams by signing him to a three-year, $63 million deal with $45 million guaranteed. Let’s take a look at the rest of the list: Aaron Donald, Rams Chris Jones, Chiefs DeForest Buckner, Colts Cam Heyward, Steelers Fletcher Cox, Eagles Jeffery Simmons, Titans Leonard Williams, Giants Stephon Tuitt, Steelers Vita Vea, Buccaneers Grady Jarrett, Falcons Also receiving votes were Washington’s Jonathan Allen, Jets’ Quinnen Williams, Cardinals’ J.J. Watt, Bears’ Akiem Hicks, Saints’ David Onyemata, Chiefs Jarran Reed, 49ers Arik Armstead, and Ravens’ Calais Cambell. The list is full of talented players, so it’s not a huge surprise that Williams is not ranked higher. He’s coming off a season with the highest amount of pressures and sacks which earned him the contract extension. He aligned all over Patrick Graham’s defense and did an excellent job with just about everything he was asked to do. |
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is the most ever both in amount and percentage. Not sure why that isn't being factored here.
If the cap wasn't moving much it has the potential to be burdensome but they took a shot on 3 players in a discounted year and structured the deals to hit when the cap skyrockets. That's a sound strategy (although not the original strategy with LW). And if we actually start hitting on these draft picks like we hope we will with Judge, that will give us even more flexibility (like letting Peppers walk if McKinney is the goods, Ojulari being a + ER and not having to sign a top tier FA, etc.).
Stated better than I would. Or could..👍🏿👍
It’s just weird to me that people so keen on cap flexibility don’t talk about this. Not shocked it wasn’t talked about before or after I posted about it. Like I said on the other thread when there are things to talk about where complaining is less accessible, it’s often times just gets glosses over.
Im not even pumping DG or saying he’s a mastermind or anything close to being over the top. But the cap rise is an absolute fact and it has to be factored into the LW signing, along with the other signings. Each deal has a shot at being a bargain along with better than usual risk mitigation. And this is coming from someone who didn’t even really want Golladay but after looking at the contract, it makes more sense.
If the cap wasn't moving much it has the potential to be burdensome but they took a shot on 3 players in a discounted year and structured the deals to hit when the cap skyrockets. That's a sound strategy (although not the original strategy with LW). And if we actually start hitting on these draft picks like we hope we will with Judge, that will give us even more flexibility (like letting Peppers walk if McKinney is the goods, Ojulari being a + ER and not having to sign a top tier FA, etc.).
There is no question that DG and KA astutely saw an opportunity to be aggressive in a marketplace where they correctly assumed that much of their competition would be conservative. They zigged while everyone else was zagging, and they really did a fantastic job this offseason.
And I was one of the posters who was vocally (maybe the MOST vocal) claiming that the Giants wouldn't be able to do anything meaningful in free agency this year. I could not have been more wrong. The way that DG and KA leveraged next year's cap jump to capitalize on this year's free agency class was nothing short of fantastic.
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is the most ever both in amount and percentage. Not sure why that isn't being factored here.
If the cap wasn't moving much it has the potential to be burdensome but they took a shot on 3 players in a discounted year and structured the deals to hit when the cap skyrockets. That's a sound strategy (although not the original strategy with LW). And if we actually start hitting on these draft picks like we hope we will with Judge, that will give us even more flexibility (like letting Peppers walk if McKinney is the goods, Ojulari being a + ER and not having to sign a top tier FA, etc.).
There is no question that DG and KA astutely saw an opportunity to be aggressive in a marketplace where they correctly assumed that much of their competition would be conservative. They zigged while everyone else was zagging, and they really did a fantastic job this offseason.
And I was one of the posters who was vocally (maybe the MOST vocal) claiming that the Giants wouldn't be able to do anything meaningful in free agency this year. I could not have been more wrong. The way that DG and KA leveraged next year's cap jump to capitalize on this year's free agency class was nothing short of fantastic.
👍🏿👍
That's frustrating as a fan. It's even more frustrating to feel like Jones could have a bad year and still keep the job because our management can be very stubborn about things.
Also I can be happy about this offseason and also say if we did miss on Jones, we didn't do very well with an important concept in the NFL which is making sure you have players lined up to win in the same window and manage the cap alongside that.
Giants are in great financial shape going forward. This is documented all over the web. If this team wins in 2021 it’s a team with staying power and one that can sustain things for a while.
First they need to win.
Cheers! Be proud.
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Much has been made about how much money the Giants spent this offseason, and how much has been deferred to future years.
Giants are in great financial shape going forward. This is documented all over the web. If this team wins in 2021 it’s a team with staying power and one that can sustain things for a while.
First they need to win.
At the risk of putting my foot in my mouth as badly as I did in March, the team is in decent shape going forward, but not extraordinarily great. If any of this year's signings bust, it's going to hurt pretty badly. And much of the next couple of years' worth of flexibility was leveraged this year with creatively backloaded contracts that landed low cap numbers into the 2021 roster.
They went into this offseason with what appeared to be limited room for 2021 but plenty of flexibility for the future. In order to sign as many high profile FAs as they did this year, they effectively flipped that. Future flexibility is what DG & KA used to afford this offseason's new additions.
We'll probably see a limited FA period next year, with the focus on re-signing and extending our own players. The draft will be our big coup in 2022 given the trove of picks DG assembled. And we may see a limited FA period in 2023 as well, depending on how rapidly the cap escalation is restored. Don't kid yourself - DG/KA did a great job this offseason, but they did leverage a bit of future cap space in the process. That's simply the way it works.
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In comment 15300659 Greg from LI said:
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In comment 15300455 UConn4523 said:
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but so did the Giants (unless of course he just stinks now). He bet on himself and because of that the “DG couldn’t get a deal done” narrative is highly flawed.
If he’s a bust now it will be joke on the Giants but if he puts up a few more seasons like 2020 then no one but dug in Giants fans will care about the negotiations.
What if he's neither a bust nor what he was in 2020? What if he goes back to the player he's been for most of his career - good, but far from great?
Then you could apply that same doom and gloom logic to any player and player acquisition known to man.
Again, the Giants got an all pro talent. How many of these guys spring free? Maybe one per offseason? These guys are worth a lot more than dime a dozen.
Yeah he could fall apart. But he's in his prime and has done nothing but play well here for nearly 2 seasons now. He's as safe a bet as any.
Ask the Jets if they'd take him back today and all those WFAN callers and hosts who were literally (laughably) thanking the Giants for taking Williams off their hands.
The Jets fucked this up. Giants took advantage. If Williams keeps playing like this for 3-4 more years it's going to be one of the most hilarious moves in Jets history. They have a few now.
He played great for ONE year. He played pretty well for a portion of another year.
I am absolutely HOPING that 2020 represents LW's future going forward, but here's the difference between you and me: I recognize that 2020 might well be an outlier for LW. You're locked in and ready to pretend that he's just going to replicate that every year going forward.
The pollyanna shit is just as tiresome as the bashing.
Locked in to what? He’s been a force ever since 2019. His sack numbers were low but sack numbers aren’t the whole story.
I’m locked in to Williams being a force, yet again. He’s in the right system and in his prime and did it here already. Why wouldn’t I believe in him going forward? Why wouldn’t anyone? 11 sacks again? Who knows. But he’s gonna generate pressure as well as any DT and smash the run. That’s being a consistent force. My eyes told me that in 2019 much like they told me strahan was a force even when he only had 5-6 sacks one year. Williams beats his man time and time again.
Giants got a player worth building around. This place CRUSHED DG days after the trade. Jets callers laughed at the giants. Wfan hosts laughed too. So did most of BBi. Many of you were wrong. Admit it and move on or bail out. No one cares if anyone was wrong but to sit here now and talk about all the giants failures (terps) from the last ten years of scream “pump the brakes” is just lame.
We’re arguing over a slam dunk success story here. Why?
We’re fine. We need to win. It’s time. If they win they won’t lose players they can’t afford to lose other than the guys they deem good but somewhat replaceable. It’s 2005 all over again. We just need to win. We’ll see.
We acquired and retained an impact defender, who appears to be on a steep ascent to stardom. It's a very promising addition to the foundation. At the same time, if you choose to overlook certain mgmt mistakes as a fan, it's your choice, but they do exist and loom large in the immediate future of NYG. You can find scenarios and examples where it does and does not impact. To try and use it against those with a different opinion as being negative, or strictly anti-DG etc, is disingenuous.
I encourage accepting a mutual grasp and letting it go. Re-reading the debate (one among many) is tiresome and unproductive.
We acquired and retained an impact defender, who appears to be on a steep ascent to stardom. It's a very promising addition to the foundation. At the same time, if you choose to overlook certain mgmt mistakes as a fan, it's your choice, but they do exist and loom large in the immediate future of NYG. You can find scenarios and examples where it does and does not impact. To try and use it against those with a different opinion as being negative, or strictly anti-DG etc, is disingenuous.
I encourage accepting a mutual grasp and letting it go. Re-reading the debate (one among many) is tiresome and unproductive.
This is a false argument at least as it relates specifically to LW. Which specific part of LW's acquisition "looms large"?
The lost picks that became Ashtyn Davis (who I actually think was a really good pick) and Michael Davis?
Or his tagged salary last year which proved to be under market relative to his play? And turned out to not be prohibitive in them having their best offseason in a decade+ (Bradberry, Martinez, Ryan)?
Or his current contract? Which also turned out to not be prohibitive in having another very active offseason?
We’re fine. We need to win. It’s time. If they win they won’t lose players they can’t afford to lose other than the guys they deem good but somewhat replaceable. It’s 2005 all over again. We just need to win. We’ll see.
"We need to win" is not the same as "we're in great shape going forward with the cap."
We leveraged a ton of cap flexibility in order to be as active as we were this offseason. It appears to have been a very savvy strategy, as the rest of the league seemed to be flatfooted while the Giants were making moves.
But your position of "we're in great cap shape going forward" is at least a little bit outdated right now.
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on the LW trade topic. I remain ok with the trade and the issue really is about the financial miscalculation by the front office. Being unwilling to include financial impact in the calculus while claiming it has no real impact, is typically false and/or illogical. It also has bearing because it's part of the pattern of mismanagement looming over the football operations.
We acquired and retained an impact defender, who appears to be on a steep ascent to stardom. It's a very promising addition to the foundation. At the same time, if you choose to overlook certain mgmt mistakes as a fan, it's your choice, but they do exist and loom large in the immediate future of NYG. You can find scenarios and examples where it does and does not impact. To try and use it against those with a different opinion as being negative, or strictly anti-DG etc, is disingenuous.
I encourage accepting a mutual grasp and letting it go. Re-reading the debate (one among many) is tiresome and unproductive.
This is a false argument at least as it relates specifically to LW. Which specific part of LW's acquisition "looms large"?
The lost picks that became Ashtyn Davis (who I actually think was a really good pick) and Michael Davis?
Or his tagged salary last year which proved to be under market relative to his play? And turned out to not be prohibitive in them having their best offseason in a decade+ (Bradberry, Martinez, Ryan)?
Or his current contract? Which also turned out to not be prohibitive in having another very active offseason?
The players that another team chose with those picks are irrelevant. That's a horseshit argument.
If you need the rest explained to you (and I suspect you don't, you're smarter than that), I'll leave it to Jon.
You don't know any of that is true. The guy refused to resign a longterm deal and best on himself twice and won. Beyond the two draft picks traded (Christ - I thought we were past those), your entire paragraph is speculation.
The players that another team chose with those picks are irrelevant. That's a horseshit argument.
If you need the rest explained to you (and I suspect you don't, you're smarter than that), I'll leave it to Jon.
It's more of a horseshit argument to throw open the "they could have selected anyone with those picks". The median value of those picks is what they traded, not the best case outcome or the worst (and Ashtyn Davis likely already closer to the best case than the worst).
If there's more to explain outside of the minuscule chance they would have used those picks on players who defied the odds of where they were drafted I'd be happy to hear it (from you or Jon).
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on the LW trade topic. I remain ok with the trade and the issue really is about the financial miscalculation by the front office. Being unwilling to include financial impact in the calculus while claiming it has no real impact, is typically false and/or illogical. It also has bearing because it's part of the pattern of mismanagement looming over the football operations.
We acquired and retained an impact defender, who appears to be on a steep ascent to stardom. It's a very promising addition to the foundation. At the same time, if you choose to overlook certain mgmt mistakes as a fan, it's your choice, but they do exist and loom large in the immediate future of NYG. You can find scenarios and examples where it does and does not impact. To try and use it against those with a different opinion as being negative, or strictly anti-DG etc, is disingenuous.
I encourage accepting a mutual grasp and letting it go. Re-reading the debate (one among many) is tiresome and unproductive.
This is a false argument at least as it relates specifically to LW. Which specific part of LW's acquisition "looms large"?
The lost picks that became Ashtyn Davis (who I actually think was a really good pick) and Michael Davis?
Or his tagged salary last year which proved to be under market relative to his play? And turned out to not be prohibitive in them having their best offseason in a decade+ (Bradberry, Martinez, Ryan)?
Or his current contract? Which also turned out to not be prohibitive in having another very active offseason?
All of yours are actually the false arguments.
The LW process to get to a signing was a flawed one and ultimately more expensive and time-consuming than a non-flawed one. A more efficient one would ultimately been cheaper and/or given them even more flexibility with other roster building decisions under a fixed cap.
Much credit to targeting/scouting an impact player, no credit on executing the deal.
Right. And there's also no way Landon Collins gets paid big off an injury riddled poor season in 2018. I'd imagine you don't negotiate your own salary cuts the way you do others?
imo the only thing we can say with some certainty is that Leonard Williams seemed quite content to sit on his 35m in career earnings and play last year on a prove it deal. And if he did so at 5m, 10m, or 15m and had the same season he just had on the field he'd have ended up in the exact same spot his is now, just possibly with another team.
- Do the Jets franchise or re-sign him? Seems unlikely given he underachieved there. And we know after the fact they were willing to trade him.
- Does Williams sign somewhere else? Possible, but we heard he wanted to stay in New York, and the Giants had the cap space and appetite to pay him - they ended up paying him more 2020 cap space under the franchise tag than Dante Fowler (who set the FA edge market at $15M AAV).
- Even after the trade, Paul Schwartz reported that Williams's open market value was $10M-$12M. Yeah Williams bet on himself and won...but only because the trade have him the leverage to make that bet in the first place. The Giants aren't paying him $12M AAV as a result; they're paying him $21M AAV. What could that $9M difference get you? Well Dalvin Tomlinson's average salary is $10.5M, so...
Asset allocation matters.
"No credit"?? Considering a deal was done and it hasn't prevented us from acquiring other players to build the roster, a statement like "no credit" is absurd.
But you don't shy away from absurdity, you embrace it.
- Do the Jets franchise or re-sign him? Seems unlikely given he underachieved there. And we know after the fact they were willing to trade him.
Your hypothetical ends here - the NYJ trade him to one of the other teams rumored to be in on him and who knows what that other team decides to do (and how he plays).
It's presumable that any other team trading for him would have been a team in playoff contention. It's a virtual guarantee they were 1 of the 30 other teams with a much better roster than the '19 NYG & NYJ. It's possible he went to a better team and gotten more recognition for his impact. Amari Cooper pretty quickly flipped the narrative around him when Dallas got him out of Oakland and because of that he never hit UFA.
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Much credit to targeting/scouting an impact player, no credit on executing the deal.
"No credit"?? Considering a deal was done and it hasn't prevented us from acquiring other players to build the roster, a statement like "no credit" is absurd.
But you don't shy away from absurdity, you embrace it.
"I'm glad this plane landed where I wanted to go but no credit for that because there was flying time and the ticket cost more money than I think it should have"
I didn't quite realize it until now but LW is kind of a karen test.
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Pretend the trade doesn't happen...
- Do the Jets franchise or re-sign him? Seems unlikely given he underachieved there. And we know after the fact they were willing to trade him.
Your hypothetical ends here - the NYJ trade him to one of the other teams rumored to be in on him and who knows what that other team decides to do (and how he plays).
It's presumable that any other team trading for him would have been a team in playoff contention. It's a virtual guarantee they were 1 of the 30 other teams with a much better roster than the '19 NYG & NYJ. It's possible he went to a better team and gotten more recognition for his impact. Amari Cooper pretty quickly flipped the narrative around him when Dallas got him out of Oakland and because of that he never hit UFA.
There were other teams interested in trading for him? I don't recall that being the case, but I could be wrong.
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The players that another team chose with those picks are irrelevant. That's a horseshit argument.
If you need the rest explained to you (and I suspect you don't, you're smarter than that), I'll leave it to Jon.
It's more of a horseshit argument to throw open the "they could have selected anyone with those picks". The median value of those picks is what they traded, not the best case outcome or the worst (and Ashtyn Davis likely already closer to the best case than the worst).
If there's more to explain outside of the minuscule chance they would have used those picks on players who defied the odds of where they were drafted I'd be happy to hear it (from you or Jon).
That's irrelevant.
Draft picks are currency, just like the money in your pocket.
A dollar is worth a dollar. A hundred dollars are worth a hundred dollars.
If you sell me a painting for $100 and then use that $100 to buy a single loaf of bread because you aren't especially good at determining value, that doesn't change a single thing about the painting I bought or the price I paid for it.
It's a horseshit argument to introduce the players chosen with draft picks after a trade has been made, for better or worse. Those draft picks are currency, and once they've left our hands, they don't matter any more. The value of the currency itself is worth discussing, not what it was spent on.
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Much credit to targeting/scouting an impact player, no credit on executing the deal.
"No credit"?? Considering a deal was done and it hasn't prevented us from acquiring other players to build the roster, a statement like "no credit" is absurd.
But you don't shy away from absurdity, you embrace it.
Last we saw you, you had your foot in your mouth on the Justin Herbert article I posted. Attempting to redeem yourself here or go 2 for 2?
Regarding this, the absurdity is not being able to think beyond your normal NYG defense mechanisms. Paying elite money to LW when his market value was less than that before the 2020 season absolutely limited the NYG somewhere and somehow.
Did you have their original shopping lists over the past two offseasons? While they have added some good assets, its not hard to presume they missed out (or backed out) on some others. A Tight End younger and better than Rudolph is a perfect example as we know they were targeting others. Was Fulton all they wanted to do on the OL this offseason...beats me but I am guessing no.
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In comment 15301550 Go Terps said:
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Pretend the trade doesn't happen...
- Do the Jets franchise or re-sign him? Seems unlikely given he underachieved there. And we know after the fact they were willing to trade him.
Your hypothetical ends here - the NYJ trade him to one of the other teams rumored to be in on him and who knows what that other team decides to do (and how he plays).
It's presumable that any other team trading for him would have been a team in playoff contention. It's a virtual guarantee they were 1 of the 30 other teams with a much better roster than the '19 NYG & NYJ. It's possible he went to a better team and gotten more recognition for his impact. Amari Cooper pretty quickly flipped the narrative around him when Dallas got him out of Oakland and because of that he never hit UFA.
There were other teams interested in trading for him? I don't recall that being the case, but I could be wrong.
See below from Shefter - I remember later it was specifically reported the Cowboys were 1 of the teams who called the Jets and they did end up trading for a DL (Michael Bennett) which sort of implies they were in market at the time.
Sources: Multiple teams interested in trade for Jets' Leonard Williams - ( New Window )
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Much credit to targeting/scouting an impact player, no credit on executing the deal.
"No credit"?? Considering a deal was done and it hasn't prevented us from acquiring other players to build the roster, a statement like "no credit" is absurd.
But you don't shy away from absurdity, you embrace it.
"I'm glad this plane landed where I wanted to go but no credit for that because there was flying time and the ticket cost more money than I think it should have"
I didn't quite realize it until now but LW is kind of a karen test.
I heard this line earlier and kind of liked it...
"Offering more money than anyone else to free agents isn't exactly a skill."
It's not often you're able to add a LT or #1 pass rusher via UFA, but you can certainly add stronger complimentary pieces already established in the NFL, and add more of them across the roster. They had to make choices, eg Adoree over Leonard Floyd, when they needed both.
That's irrelevant.
Draft picks are currency, just like the money in your pocket.
A dollar is worth a dollar. A hundred dollars are worth a hundred dollars.
If you sell me a painting for $100 and then use that $100 to buy a single loaf of bread because you aren't especially good at determining value, that doesn't change a single thing about the painting I bought or the price I paid for it.
It's a horseshit argument to introduce the players chosen with draft picks after a trade has been made, for better or worse. Those draft picks are currency, and once they've left our hands, they don't matter any more. The value of the currency itself is worth discussing, not what it was spent on.
Ok, we are in complete agreement re: the best way to value the trade via the currency of draft picks (pick 68 = 250 points, pick 154 = 30 points). From that POV using the trade value chart it cost the NYG the equivalent of about 300 value points in a draft where their total draft capital was north of 2500 value points (I used last year's aggregate to make this simpler even though 1 of the picks lost was this year's draft).
Trading 10% of a single year's draft pool seems pretty insignificant for what ended up being a pro bowl level season, no?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm - ( New Window )
- Do the Jets franchise or re-sign him? Seems unlikely given he underachieved there. And we know after the fact they were willing to trade him.
- Does Williams sign somewhere else? Possible, but we heard he wanted to stay in New York, and the Giants had the cap space and appetite to pay him - they ended up paying him more 2020 cap space under the franchise tag than Dante Fowler (who set the FA edge market at $15M AAV).
- Even after the trade, Paul Schwartz reported that Williams's open market value was $10M-$12M. Yeah Williams bet on himself and won...but only because the trade have him the leverage to make that bet in the first place. The Giants aren't paying him $12M AAV as a result; they're paying him $21M AAV. What could that $9M difference get you? Well Dalvin Tomlinson's average salary is $10.5M, so...
Asset allocation matters.
Forgive us if Paul Schwartz's assessment of DL market value isn't the compelling argument you think it is. These beat reporters are wrong about everything just about all of the time.
Dante Fowler? The guy has multiple off-the-field issues, including a suspension by none other than Tom Coughlin. Fowler's also an EDGE, an outside guy in a 3/4. Fowler's contract has no impact whatsoever on Williams.
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In comment 15301552 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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Much credit to targeting/scouting an impact player, no credit on executing the deal.
"No credit"?? Considering a deal was done and it hasn't prevented us from acquiring other players to build the roster, a statement like "no credit" is absurd.
But you don't shy away from absurdity, you embrace it.
"I'm glad this plane landed where I wanted to go but no credit for that because there was flying time and the ticket cost more money than I think it should have"
I didn't quite realize it until now but LW is kind of a karen test.
I heard this line earlier and kind of liked it...
"Offering more money than anyone else to free agents isn't exactly a skill."
the NYG only paid LW the CBA determined raise off what he'd made the prior year and due to his losing his grievance for positional classification as DE it ended up being less than the full 20% in the CBA and almost the same salary as the 5th year option (which if memory serves the NYJ picked up at the DE price). Either way the NYG paid him 16m the year after another team paid him 14m.
Williams handled the situation beautifully. His options before the trade were limited: sign with whichever team gave you the best deal. He was at the mercy of the market.
But once the Giants traded for him that dynamic changed. That gave him leverage over the Giants and he milked it as far as he could. He turned what should have been around a 4 year, $45M contract into essentially a 4 year $79M contract. $30M+ of cap space over a 4 year period for one player is not a small amount of money.
This is only one of several asset allocation errors that characterize the Gettleman era.
Williams handled the situation beautifully. His options before the trade were limited: sign with whichever team gave you the best deal. He was at the mercy of the market.
But once the Giants traded for him that dynamic changed. That gave him leverage over the Giants and he milked it as far as he could. He turned what should have been around a 4 year, $45M contract into essentially a 4 year $79M contract. $30M+ of cap space over a 4 year period for one player is not a small amount of money.
This is only one of several asset allocation errors that characterize the Gettleman era.
Once again, "what could have been" is nothing but speculation.
If the Giants signed him to a longterm deal at 10-12 million a per on the back of a 1.5 sack season, you'd have criticized Gettleman for such a large investment into a mediocre player. If they let him walk in FA, you'd have criticized him for trading away picks just to let a guy walk. They signed a premier DT/DE coming off a double-digit sack season and you criticize Gettleman.
You're making my point for me. EDGE players don't set the market for DT/DE in a 3/4. Dante Fowler, the wonderful EDGE making $12M per tallied 3 sacks last season.
So would you rather have Fowler right now or Williams?
"Probably" being the operative word. You, nor I, nor Paul Schwartz really have any clue what the going rate is for players. Otherwise, we would be working in a FO somewhere. So to base any argument around "asset allocation" is folly.
In my view it was a long shot a 6th year player was going to put it all together and prove his ceiling was a top tier player. Not just pretty good, but really good.
It was improbable, but it worked out. The contract is fair and clean. If he produces like last year, it’s the right resource allocation.
There’s plenty to knock Gettleman on — on this one he got it right — however improbable it was.
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That's irrelevant.
Draft picks are currency, just like the money in your pocket.
A dollar is worth a dollar. A hundred dollars are worth a hundred dollars.
If you sell me a painting for $100 and then use that $100 to buy a single loaf of bread because you aren't especially good at determining value, that doesn't change a single thing about the painting I bought or the price I paid for it.
It's a horseshit argument to introduce the players chosen with draft picks after a trade has been made, for better or worse. Those draft picks are currency, and once they've left our hands, they don't matter any more. The value of the currency itself is worth discussing, not what it was spent on.
Ok, we are in complete agreement re: the best way to value the trade via the currency of draft picks (pick 68 = 250 points, pick 154 = 30 points). From that POV using the trade value chart it cost the NYG the equivalent of about 300 value points in a draft where their total draft capital was north of 2500 value points (I used last year's aggregate to make this simpler even though 1 of the picks lost was this year's draft).
Trading 10% of a single year's draft pool seems pretty insignificant for what ended up being a pro bowl level season, no? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm - ( New Window )
Again, that's a post transaction value. What he became since the trade is not relevant to the trade itself. If you buy a picture frame at a yard sale that happens to contain a Honus Wagner rookie card, you didn't intentionally buy a Honus Wagner rookie card. In this case, I do think we owe a bit of a hat tip to Gettleman and Pettit that they recognized LW's upside when they made the trade. But bundling that into your argument retroactively robs them of the upside they acquired, who was no sure thing at the time.
They traded X amount of draft capital for the player they acquired at the time. His value AT THAT TIME was right around the level of the value that was traded for him, perhaps a bit beneath that, but close. Still, he was a post-hype prospect of such massive proportions that he represents a scenario that is very difficult to quantify.
That said, to simplify it (IMO), LW is such an interesting example because he represents an example of a trade where we overpaid for the player he was when we acquired him, and ultimately underpaid for the player he has been for us since.
It feeds both arguments: he's been a fantastic player for us, one who we probably would not have been able to acquire on the open market. Except that he wasn't that player when he was originally going to hit the open market, and might have been a bargain signing even if we had overpaid for him in 2020 dollars. But because he was such an enigma at the time, DG (understandably) let his contract negotiations wait a year, which spiked LW's price tag even in a down cap year.
It's not exactly what anyone could consider a savvy cap maneuver, but it's also not a scenario that has a ton of precedent in terms of acquiring A+ talent like LW was this past year (and we hope he continues to be).
It's ultimately BBI's wet dream, right? Both the posters who were in favor of the trade and those who were opposed to the trade end up being right, and the Giants ultimately end up with a potential superstar in the process.
And trading for him ended up keeping him on the team, just as another team trading for him likely would have done.
We talk so often about needing to get better as a team. The Giants do that by signing Williams and the mantra is still that he could have been gotten more cheaply. Or more laughably, that there is "no credit" given for signing him.
Realistically, he'd have been a lot cheaper for us if we didn't trade for him because he probably isn't ever seeing free agency and we have no shot at signing him.
When supposition is the backbone of an argument, it likely isn't a very strong one.
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The point is the trade never should have been made in the first place, and Williams probably could have been had for cheaper had the trade never occurred at all.
"Probably" being the operative word. You, nor I, nor Paul Schwartz really have any clue what the going rate is for players. Otherwise, we would be working in a FO somewhere. So to base any argument around "asset allocation" is folly.
You really think LW even sniffs Deforest Buckner-type money after his 2019 season?
Wake up...
Why is it so hard for you to admit you don't have any clue what a given athlete's value is?
I also agree the lead up to the extension was inefficient, and was not management’s best work.
I wouldn’t have burned the powder on Williams, but all things equal now, if the Giants get 2 years of 2020 production, they did well.
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The going rate for Leonard Williams in October 2019 was not $21M/year. It was not even $16M/year. That was also not the going rate for him in March 2020. He was not viewed as an elite player at that time, because he hadn't been.
Why is it so hard for you to admit you don't have any clue what a given athlete's value is?
Dante Fowler, your own example, had not ever been an "elite player" either. He had 16 career sacks in 5 NFL seasons (one being lost due to ACL injury) before LAR handed him $14M. He's now gone back to sucking on ATL.
And yet:
Realistically, he'd have been a lot cheaper for us if we didn't trade for him because he probably isn't ever seeing free agency and we have no shot at signing him.
When supposition is the backbone of an argument, it likely isn't a very strong one.
The supposition that is not a very strong one is that LW couldn't have made it to free agency and/or that the NYG couldn't have targeted and paid him his lower market salary at that point. Hell, even somewhat of a premium if need be.
Terps - i'd disagree with you that they overpaid him for most of the answers I've given above. Mainly that they were still able to maneuver the cap around him and the draft picks given up were not prohibitive.
I am not blind to alternatives so I do think there are other positive scenarios that could have worked out resourcing the assets differently, just none that I can envision as both realistic and clearly better. So I don't see much point in quibbling over what has already been a great outcome on the off chance it could have been super great if they made the perfect draft picks and somehow found just as much production in FA. The only way I can get to a better outcome is if they picked day 1 starter like the all pro guard the Pats took last year in the 7th round and then put the money towards both resigning Tomlinson and adding another FA who turned out great like Daryl Williams, but how realistic is that? Had they wanted Williams they still could have signed him at the time instead of Fackrell but they didn't and it had nothing to do with LW. So more realistically the pick would have been last year's Ojulari Zack Baun (who I also liked just as much as everyone else and I believe the asshats said the NYG liked) and I'm pretty sure given the choice right now I'd take Williams > Baun + Tomlinson. So at best it feels like quibbling over 6 in one and half dozen in the other (with a lot of room for worse outcomes that would have been more popular with most fans/observers like signing Clowney as an example).
My long term (minority) opinion from the moment the trade was made was that it was bizarre timing but the opportunity cost was way over dramatized, and that was with the tag being assumed. God willing his healthy track record will continue along with his impact level performance.
In October 2019 the going rate for him was 14m. Because that's the rate he was under contract for.
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The going rate for Leonard Williams in October 2019 was not $21M/year. It was not even $16M/year. That was also not the going rate for him in March 2020. He was not viewed as an elite player at that time, because he hadn't been.
In October 2019 the going rate for him was 14m. Because that's the rate he was under contract for.
That was the last year of his rookie deal, which under the CBA was valued according to his draft slot. His first FA deal was going to be dependent on his performance with the Jets.