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Fantasy Football Keeper Advice

pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 9:44 am
my league we keep 2, lose the round we drafted them, can only keep players drafted after the 3rd.

My best options:

Jonathan Taylor: 4th round
Keenan Allen: 6th round
Chase Claypool: 13th round
I guess Michael Pittman in the 12th
Jalen Hurts in the 8th (6 pt per passing TD league)

leaning Allen and Taylor- highest ADP, but Claypool is good value too.


PPR league.

Is that what you would do?
I would go with Allen and Taylor  
MadPlaid : 8/1/2021 9:52 am : link
I think your first choice is the best option. Tempting to keep Claypool.
For me  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 9:55 am : link
Taylor and Claypool. Should still get a strong receiver in the 6th to replace Allen. Or you could simply re-draft Allen. Don't think there's significant drop-off between the two, and like Claypool's upside.
RE: For me  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 10:02 am : link
In comment 15318777 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Taylor and Claypool. Should still get a strong receiver in the 6th to replace Allen. Or you could simply re-draft Allen. Don't think there's significant drop-off between the two, and like Claypool's upside.


I was hoping PIT didn't re-sign JuJu and I wouldn't hesitate to do that, but as the year went on it seemed like they had fewer plays designed for Claypool and more for Diontae Johnson.

Claypool (who obviously was a rookie) only surpassed 5 catches 1 time the entire 2nd half of the season and only surpassed 100 yards once the second half.

Taylor and Allen  
beatrixkiddo : 8/1/2021 10:27 am : link
are your picks. Both steals for those rounds, Allen gets so many targets he's always underrated in PPR. I'm keeping Taylor as my keeper this year, for a 3rd rounder. Firm believer in keeping the best players you can despite the round cost.
RE: RE: For me  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 10:48 am : link
In comment 15318780 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15318777 allstarjim said:


Quote:


Taylor and Claypool. Should still get a strong receiver in the 6th to replace Allen. Or you could simply re-draft Allen. Don't think there's significant drop-off between the two, and like Claypool's upside.



I was hoping PIT didn't re-sign JuJu and I wouldn't hesitate to do that, but as the year went on it seemed like they had fewer plays designed for Claypool and more for Diontae Johnson.

Claypool (who obviously was a rookie) only surpassed 5 catches 1 time the entire 2nd half of the season and only surpassed 100 yards once the second half.


Yeah I understand that, but still what he accomplished as a rookie was extraordinary. I think he'll be a steadier playmaker with more chances in the offense in year 2. He's a physical mismatch with his size and apeed and the value for where you drafted him is great.

You're unlikely to get a player that would match Claypool's production in the 13th, but in the 6th, you can get a really good receiver. I'm looking at ADPs...Godwin and Mike Evans going in the low 50s, which probably won't hold. But how about a big upside guy in Jaylen Waddle (current ADP at 55). Tyler Lockett currently 88, Amari Cooper at 60, Adam Thielen at 76.

If you look at the value of Claypool vs a 13th rounder, the value is much greater than Allen vs a 6th. How about OBJ in the 6th? There's a pretty good chance receivers taken at your 6th round pick might out-produce Allen.

All data is from FFToolbox. I think ADP info right now might be a little too unreliable to make this case, but if you bring up a top 200 chart, I think you'll see where Claypool and Allen respectively rank, and the kind of players available for your 6th rounder. Is this a 10 or 12 team league? Either way, doesn't change much for me, except it's an even better argument for Claypool in 10 team formats. You could be picking in the high 40's after pick forfeitures, of course, somewhat offset by keepers that are unavailable to draft, but I just believe Claypool represents a much greater value for you at a cost of the 13th than Allen at the cost of your 6th.
Also  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 10:57 am : link
To further the point, you don't have to squint too hard to see Claypool at least come close to Allen in production this season.
RE: For me  
eric2425ny : 8/1/2021 11:15 am : link
In comment 15318777 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Taylor and Claypool. Should still get a strong receiver in the 6th to replace Allen. Or you could simply re-draft Allen. Don't think there's significant drop-off between the two, and like Claypool's upside.


Agree 100%. You won’t find a player like Claypool that late in the draft, but you can find nice WR’s in the mid rounds this season that will probably put up numbers similar to Allen. I feel like round 4-7 is a sweet spot for WR’s this season.
Thanks  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 11:34 am : link
for all the advice.

I also think in PIT there are only so many balls to go around (as they say) and in SD Allen is the focal point of the O.

but I am now considering Claypool more seriously also for the long-term keeper potential - Allen would basically be one and done. I think our league halves the round the second time so I wouldn't be able to keep Allen beyond this year (we just changed our keeper rules though so I need to double check that)
I agree with Eric  
Someguy1978 : 8/1/2021 12:12 pm : link
Keep Taylor and Claypool. Are you able to trade players for picks? If so, you could try and trade him for a pick so at least you get something back for him.
RE: I agree with Eric  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 12:24 pm : link
In comment 15318865 Someguy1978 said:
Quote:
Keep Taylor and Claypool. Are you able to trade players for picks? If so, you could try and trade him for a pick so at least you get something back for him.


no more trades of players at this point.

I ended last year with:

QB Mahomes

RB Dalvin Cook
RB Jonathan Taylor
RB Miles Sanders
RB Josh Jacobs
RB Austin Ekeler

WR Keenan Allen
WR DJ Moore
WR Chase Claypool
WR Michael Pittman

TE: George Kittle
TE: Mark Andrews
TE: Evan Engram

I even had the best kicker

Koo

and I lost in the finals to a team of mostly waiver wire picks up (and Stefon Diggs) - my team had it's lowest score of the year in the finals. still hurts lol, so, anyway, I don't have great keeper options.

Most of those RB's (and Mahomes and Kittle) are not keep-able. but reinforces the strategy of a) winning with drafting WR's later and b) keeping claypool to get my other WR's in those middle rounds.

RE: Thanks  
eric2425ny : 8/1/2021 12:36 pm : link
In comment 15318837 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for all the advice.

I also think in PIT there are only so many balls to go around (as they say) and in SD Allen is the focal point of the O.

but I am now considering Claypool more seriously also for the long-term keeper potential - Allen would basically be one and done. I think our league halves the round the second time so I wouldn't be able to keep Allen beyond this year (we just changed our keeper rules though so I need to double check that)


That’s a key point on future years. A guy in my league has a similar situation with whether or not to keep Waller with a 4th or Dobbins with a 5th. I’d normally lean RB, but Waller is a beast. That being said, if he keeps Dobbins he can keep him again with a 4th next year and a 2nd the year after that if Dobbins really takes off. With Waller he’s looking at this year and maybe one more season of keeping him.
RE: RE: I agree with Eric  
JayBinQueens : 8/1/2021 8:26 pm : link
In comment 15318876 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15318865 Someguy1978 said:


Quote:


Keep Taylor and Claypool. Are you able to trade players for picks? If so, you could try and trade him for a pick so at least you get something back for him.



no more trades of players at this point.

I ended last year with:

QB Mahomes

RB Dalvin Cook
RB Jonathan Taylor
RB Miles Sanders
RB Josh Jacobs
RB Austin Ekeler

WR Keenan Allen
WR DJ Moore
WR Chase Claypool
WR Michael Pittman

TE: George Kittle
TE: Mark Andrews
TE: Evan Engram

I even had the best kicker

Koo

and I lost in the finals to a team of mostly waiver wire picks up (and Stefon Diggs) - my team had it's lowest score of the year in the finals. still hurts lol, so, anyway, I don't have great keeper options.

Most of those RB's (and Mahomes and Kittle) are not keep-able. but reinforces the strategy of a) winning with drafting WR's later and b) keeping claypool to get my other WR's in those middle rounds.


Is this a 10 team league? That team is stacked.


Either way, don't over think this. Take Taylor (top 10 overall pick) in the 4th and Allen (can finish too 10 WR) in the 6th
It is a 12 team  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 8:36 pm : link
league, but I traded my 2nd round pick in this upcoming draft to get Dalvin Cook and I traded a 4th for Kittle and Ekelar (I think both were on IR) and I had 2nd and two 4ths and two 6ths in last year's draft.

I picked 12th.

Sanders/Jacobs 12/13, Mahomes with my 2nd 2nd (# 15 overall). DJ Moore/Jonathan Taylor (3rd/4th) Mark Andrews with my 2nd 4th then McLaurin (5th) (traded), Keenan Allen (6) and Tyler Boyd (6) (traded) , Will Fuller (7) (traded) and Zack Moss (8), etc...Claypool (13), I got Tee Higgins (traded) in the 17th (Covid round)

anyway, I think I'm going with Claypool and will redraft Allen if I want him. His ADP is early 3rd which I can probably do.
The worst thing  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 8:48 pm : link
about that team is I had too many options at RB and TE.

I was always picking wrong - I cruised to the championship but I really hate having options. At WR I started the year with Allen, McLaurin, Boyd, Fuller, Claypool, Slayton, etc and also while no "elite" guy going in to the year every time I started Fuller he shit the bed and when I didn't he went off so I traded him - and then he got suspended (so good timing by me). I also traded McLaurin in the Dalvin Cook trade. I traded Slayton and someone else for Brees.

but the worst move I made all year was before the season began I picked up James Robinson when Fournette was cut.

I kept him for a day and then was worried (before I got Kittle) about my backup TE (I only had Andrews on the roster) so I traded James Robinson and Tee Higgins for Evan Engram.

The only way that move didn't eat away at me is because I was so stacked at RB, but Robinson as an 8th round keeper would be nice.
What pick are you drafting in the draft?  
JayBinQueens : 8/1/2021 9:25 pm : link
.

I hear your concern re: value. I've never done a keeper league so it may just be something I'm not wired for at this point
I pick 4th  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 9:46 pm : link
and I have no 2nd round pick (Dalvin Cook trade).

a guy with two 2nd's suggested a trade where I give him #4 and he gives me two 2nd's (I think 16 and 24) I'm considering it.

if not, then at 4 I'm looking at Kamara, Henry, maybe Elliott.

and that would give me:
Kamara (ideally)
J. Taylor
C. Claypool

as my 1st three and then with no 2nd I don't pick again until 28 (Mahomes, Jefferson, Swift, Metcalf, AJ Brown)

and 45 is my Taylor keeper, I traded my 5th so don't pick again until 69 (nice) where my options should be Golladay, Chark, etc.

so if it winds up with a top 5 of:
Mahomes (3)
Kamara (1)
Taylor (4)
Golladay/Chark (6)
Claypool (13)

I'd be happy with in a "rebuild" year.

I could also forgo QB until alter and at 3 (28) I could take Metcalf or AJ Brown and then later get a QB like Herbert, Lamar, etc.

In the same boat as well  
terz22 : 8/2/2021 8:57 am : link
Keep 3 half PPR

Diggs (3rd round)
Murray (12)
D. Harris (14)
Lamb (7)
Lockett (9)

I am tempted to keep my 3 receivers since Diggs offers OK value but not the best but he'll probably go in round 1 or 2 in this league. But the value on Harris and Murray is pretty good just never crazy about keeping a QB since i did it last season and it really didnt pay off.
RE: In the same boat as well  
pjcas18 : 8/2/2021 9:34 am : link
In comment 15319398 terz22 said:
Quote:
Keep 3 half PPR

Diggs (3rd round)
Murray (12)
D. Harris (14)
Lamb (7)
Lockett (9)

I am tempted to keep my 3 receivers since Diggs offers OK value but not the best but he'll probably go in round 1 or 2 in this league. But the value on Harris and Murray is pretty good just never crazy about keeping a QB since i did it last season and it really didnt pay off.


I agree Diggs is awesome, but not much value as a keeper in round 3 since his ADP is late round 1 to mid round 2, but also not sure Damien Harris has more value even at 14 with Michel and James White still there and Belichick never seeming to commit to one RB) and I too hate keeping QB's.

So, I'd also keep your 3 WR's.
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