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NFT: Reds vs Mets, Rubber Match / Gutiérrez vs Stroman

allstarjim : 8/1/2021 11:36 am
For the Mets:

McNeil 2B
Alonso 1B
Smith LF
Báez SS
Conforto RF
Roy Hobbs / Drury 3B
Pillar CF
Nido C
Stroman P

For the Reds:

India 2B
Winker LF
Farmer SS
Stephenson C
Schrock 1B
Suárez 3B
Naquin CF
Aquino RF
Gutiérrez P

The Báez-Garrett watch is on! LGM!

Love to see Drury with another start at 3B, and against a righty... seemingly supplanting Villar, which would be the obvious start as of last week. Not this week, though! He's earned it!

Rookie Vladimir Gutiérrez is 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 11 starts, 60.2 IP in his rookie season.

In his last start, Gutiérrez picked up a win against the Cubs throwing 6.1 IP allowing 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, and 5 Ks.

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Castro walks the pitcher  
nygfaninorlando : 8/1/2021 2:52 pm : link
on 4 pitches. Guy is a waste.
Unfuckingbelievable  
CooperDash : 8/1/2021 2:53 pm : link
Castro walks in the opposing pitcher on 4 pitchers to walk in the run. Mental midget. And poor choice to enter the game in this situation.
FFS  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 2:54 pm : link
Castro is ridiculous, so erratic. No Keith, this is not unusual for Castro.

All he had to do is throw a batting practice fastball, get me over, and he couldn't do that with the pitcher up. Now a big hit and this is really over.
Castro needs to only pitch  
nygfaninorlando : 8/1/2021 2:54 pm : link
in mop up situations. He’s terrible.
I would've left Stroman  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 2:57 pm : link
In there with the 8th and 9th batters up, despite him just giving up a BB.
Ok  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 3:39 pm : link
I guess the bloom is off the rose for Drury.

Such a disappointing game today after a big lift last night. If they lose this game, I almost feel they have to sweep in Miami.
If it's still 4-1  
allstarjim : 8/1/2021 3:51 pm : link
After the top of the 9th, veey likely we see Garrett vs Báez.
Ugh.  
PakistanPete : 8/1/2021 4:09 pm : link
Not how I drew it up.
RE: It seems to me  
KDavies : 8/1/2021 4:19 pm : link
In comment 15318892 allstarjim said:
Quote:
The Mets are getting all the bad press here, but Boras and Rocker intentionally withheld pertinent medical info. Not sure why they get the free pass on this.


Agreed. The criticism on the Mets not backing it up with a high school player is valid. I don’t blame the Mets for being pissed at undisclosed injuries if they would not have signed Rocker for $6 million knowing that. If they sign him, great. If they aren’t comfortable with the medicals, they get the #11 pick next year in an even better draft from what I have read. Nothing to get up in arms about imo
Mets are entering danger territory now  
moespree : 8/1/2021 4:20 pm : link
Especially not even having played the Dodgers or Giants yet at all.
Can’t believe they didn’t sign Rocker  
Metnut : 8/1/2021 5:12 pm : link
Pretty embarrassing for the front office to forfeit near $1.5M in slot money. Cohen should be furious.

If Rocker ends up pitching great next year, someone should be fired.
shitty week for the Mets  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 5:13 pm : link
ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5.

Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season.

trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed

fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft

Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?

So far  
Sammo85 : 8/1/2021 5:19 pm : link
I’m not loving at all Sandys return to the Mets. And I’m not sold on Scott being anything more than a deputy GM type.

Cohen needs to really make some changes again there in offseason. Mets have a pivotal directional off-season coming up. Tons of free agent or qualifying decisions that aren’t so simple. They are also bereft of near ML caliber pitching which will force them to make a painful trade or two or also inflate the payroll for coming years still. OF and 3B will be question marks.

I’m skeptical of Stroman and Conforto being brought back. My guess is they qualify Syndergaard and overpay on Baez to keep Lindor happy.
Wouldn’t mind letting Conforto walk and signing  
Metnut : 8/1/2021 5:33 pm : link
Starling Marte. Won’t be cheap but he’d be a nice fit here IMO
crappy offensive effort today but have to move past it & just beat MIA  
Eric on Li : 8/1/2021 5:58 pm : link
need to win that series and then win against Philly. if they don't show up to beat the Marlins - currently on a 4 game losing streak and not lined up to face Alcantara - and don't win the series against Philly that's the time to start getting worried. Losing to Cincy sucks but they are a decent team and we happened to catch Gray/Miley. Miami is a different story and if they want to be a playoff team the result needs to reflect that.
The MLB needs to start a combine now...  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 6:00 pm : link
Bring the top 100 prospects and do all your interviews, medicals, measurables BEFORE the draft.
RE: shitty week for the Mets  
Eric on Li : 8/1/2021 6:03 pm : link
In comment 15319057 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5.

Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season.

trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed

fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft

Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?


Baez has to move positions but he's played both of the positions he'd move to, he'd previously said he was open to it, and 1 them had previously been the biggest need on the team (3b). I'd have preferred to give up Ginn or Palmer and Davis instead of PCA, but not if it meant getting Bryant instead of Baez because Bryant likely would have been a pure rental.
PCA is a long way away at age 19  
spike : 8/1/2021 6:09 pm : link
and little to no minor league development due to covid and shoulder injury.

Who knows how he will bounce back from injury.

Baez is an immediate injection of much needed offense, albeit streaky.

We must beat up on the Marlins and win the Phillies series.
I don't know who DJ Short is but I agree with this sentiment re Rocker  
Eric on Li : 8/1/2021 6:34 pm : link
Quote:
D.J. Short
@djshort

Without the benefit of knowing the medicals, I have a really hard time believing the Mets would blow up something with Rocker over money or a difference of a million or something. It makes no sense, especially knowing how this would be received by fans who were legit excited.

3:14pm · 1 Aug 2021 · Twitter for iPhone

D.J. Short @djshort
10m
I’m not taking the Mets side, but this just sucks all around. For the team and for the player who has this on his back as he starts his pro career. It’ll be years before we know what was right, so spending this moment arguing about it is fruitless.

9m
The real issue is the process of the Mets’ draft beyond Rocker and what they left on the table.


The failure was not having a backup plan to spend the now wasted pool money on. Kumar sounded like a fine prospect but any time I read "velo drop" I expect TJS so irrespective of whatever the Mets beef was, that was a red flag for an already risky asset class to invest in (P).

Unless it's Justin Verlander, I'd really much rather continue the strategy of taking quality hitters early (like Kelenic, PCA, Baty) and taking a shot with an overslot arm in rounds 2/3 (like SWR, Wolff, Allan, Ginn). Pay for pitchers in FA when you don't have to hope they stay healthy developing for 3-4 extra years. That's a solid formula.
More from Martino coming soon to a theater near you  
Eric on Li : 8/1/2021 7:09 pm : link
Quote:
Andy Martino @martinonyc
New info on Mets/Rocker: The deal did not fall apart on money. The sides agreed to $6 mil pending physical. Post-physical, Mets didn't try to get a discount. There was no further back and forth on money. Story soon to elaborate.
So what does Rocker do now  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 7:10 pm : link
play indy league or something like Strasburg (?) did?

or gets surgery to repair whatever was wrong medically?

and then he goes back into the 2022 draft?
RE: shitty week for the Mets  
CGiants07 : 8/1/2021 7:21 pm : link
In comment 15319057 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5.

Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season.

trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed

fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft

Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?

there has been no talk of degrom being out that long
RE: I don't know who DJ Short is but I agree with this sentiment re Rocker  
sb from NYT Forum : 8/1/2021 7:25 pm : link
In comment 15319115 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Unless it's Justin Verlander, I'd really much rather continue the strategy of taking quality hitters early (like Kelenic, PCA, Baty) and taking a shot with an overslot arm in rounds 2/3 (like SWR, Wolff, Allan, Ginn). Pay for pitchers in FA when you don't have to hope they stay healthy developing for 3-4 extra years. That's a solid formula.


This sounds like how the Yankees operated in the teens.
RE: .  
81_Great_Dane : 8/1/2021 7:28 pm : link
In comment 15318880 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Zach Braziller
@NYPost_Brazille
·
19s
If the #mets don't sign Kumar Rocker, it's an organization failure from the very top on down. Wilpons would get crushed for this, and after a very underwhelming trade deadline, someone has to answer for this.

Well, no they don't. They should, but they don't have to answer to anyone for anything. It's entirely up to them.
I know its a long shot but does anyone know  
Rory : 8/1/2021 7:33 pm : link
what next years crop looks like?

Feel like that might play into the Mets decision here as well.
RE: I know its a long shot but does anyone know  
KDavies : 8/1/2021 7:42 pm : link
In comment 15319150 Rory said:
Quote:
what next years crop looks like?

Feel like that might play into the Mets decision here as well.


From what I hear it’s a very good draft class next year.
RE: So what does Rocker do now  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 7:44 pm : link
In comment 15319139 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
play indy league or something like Strasburg (?) did?

or gets surgery to repair whatever was wrong medically?

and then he goes back into the 2022 draft?


He probably goes back to school...

Also, I think a statement was released today claiming he has no medical issue...so surgery seems unlikely.

Maybe that's where it broke down?? Maybe he claimed he wouldn't hey surgery and they wanted him to?
I read  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 7:50 pm : link
he will forgo his senior season and turn pro - whatever that means.
So the Mets  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 7:53 pm : link
really lost two 10 prospects this weekend.

Since most lists already had Rocker in the top 10.
RE: I read  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 7:54 pm : link
In comment 15319164 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
he will forgo his senior season and turn pro - whatever that means.


Was just coming to say I saw the same...but if it's an interpretation of the Boras statement then I think it's still not so clear...Boras said:

"Kumar requires no medical attention and will continue to pitch in the regular course as he prepares to begin his professional career"

What does this mean?  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 7:56 pm : link


Steven Cohen
@StevenACohen2
·
1h
Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.
No, I was referring to Passan not Boras  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 7:59 pm : link
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
· 2h
The New York Mets and Kumar Rocker, their first-round pick, did not come to an agreement on a deal. The Mets will get the 11th pick in the 2022 draft as compensation. Rocker will forgo returning to Vanderbilt and begin his pro career. He is now draft-eligible for 2022.
Show this thread
RE: No, I was referring to Passan not Boras  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 8:07 pm : link
In comment 15319174 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
· 2h
The New York Mets and Kumar Rocker, their first-round pick, did not come to an agreement on a deal. The Mets will get the 11th pick in the 2022 draft as compensation. Rocker will forgo returning to Vanderbilt and begin his pro career. He is now draft-eligible for 2022.
Show this thread


Yes...then look in the tweet thread..it seems like Passan is just interpreting Boras's statement.

Media is all flailing with this ..they have no idea what happened and its pretty obvious ..Martino just pushed a joke of an article that says nothing..
Re: the Martino article...  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 8:09 pm : link
Basically says..all doctors that have reported their findings say nothing wrong with Rocker...Mets did a physical and didn't even offer him any bonus at all.

No one seems to have any clue what Mets saw or why they weren't interested in signing him.

May remain a mystery
RE: What does this mean?  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 8:13 pm : link
In comment 15319171 pjcas18 said:
Quote:


Steven Cohen
@StevenACohen2
·
1h
Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.


Well I guess it means they really don't believe Rocker will become anything worth an investment based on what they saw??

But beyond that, it sounds like a tweet every future draft pick AND collective bargaining negotiators for the MLBPA will throw back in Cohen and the owners face...

Ive been a huge Cohen supporter but this tweet just seems shortsighted.
either way  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 8:16 pm : link
just seems like a shit show.

Maybe next year in the first they can take a HS kid who has sign-ability concerns and a college senior and undercut the college senior and use the under slot amount to sign the lottery ticket guy.
Well...  
PakistanPete : 8/1/2021 8:49 pm : link
I was never happy about Alderson returning to the Mets. I have no opinion about Scott.

I obviously like Cohen but wish he would stop tweeting.

This was obviously mishandled at some level, but part of me loves Cohen poking Boras in the eye.
I think what Cohen means  
Vanzetti : 8/1/2021 8:52 pm : link
Is a first round pick can save you roughly five times the salary it would cost to have a comparable free agent. Because the draft pick makes much less for his first six seasons.


Thus, he is not going to throw away that potential return on investment on a guy who very likely will have arm trouble based on undisclosed medical information from the past. Instead, he will draft another guy next season who will meet that ROI

So basically Cohen  
pjcas18 : 8/1/2021 8:53 pm : link
is saying he doesn't believe Rocker will live up to the draft slot expectations.
My reading of that  
moespree : 8/1/2021 9:32 pm : link
Is that someone told Cohen that next years draft is projected to strong and with that he decided it's better long-term investment to take the multiple picks next year on hopefully healthier players, rather than a risky one on Rocker.
I think Vanzetti is right re the tweet - clearly they thought he would  
Eric on Li : 8/1/2021 9:37 pm : link
provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed.

It's the only thing that makes any sense but of the parties directly involved it's either unethical/illegal (mets) or not in their best interest (the player) to disclose the specifics. So we may never know exactly what they are worried about.

Cohen should just take the high road though. A quote about being adaptable and knowing when to hold em/fold em might have come off better than calling players assets. I think he is being triggered by people calling him cheap/like the Wilpons.

The team will get shit on but I give them credit for having the balls to do something wildly unpopular. The easy thing would have been to just hope for the best so I expect there's a reason they didn't just do that. It sucks they burned $1.5m but on a deeper look it may not have gone that far (unless they combined it with another high pick). SWR, Wolf, Greene all got close to $2m bonuses so it's not like they could have just pick some great leftover HS'er and definitely signed them. Ginn and Allan each got more like $3m. Last time they found an extra $1m all it got them was Cameron Planck.

At least next year's draft will be more fun with 2 firsts.
RE: I think Vanzetti is right re the tweet - clearly they thought he would  
moze1021 : 8/1/2021 10:16 pm : link
In comment 15319256 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed.



Well what's your guess??

It can't be need for Tommy John since that's become basically a standard procedure for any Mets starter at some point in their controllable years, so it has to be something worse for them to not have even though of offering him any bonus whatsoever.

This wasn't about money... it was about them making a bet that he will never be a difference maker at the MLB level, right?

So something degenerative? Something that can't be fixed? If it was shoulder issues that would make sense but it's already been reported that it's his elbow.
RE: RE: I think Vanzetti is right re the tweet - clearly they thought he would  
Eric on Li : 8/2/2021 12:19 am : link
In comment 15319283 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15319256 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed.





Well what's your guess??

It can't be need for Tommy John since that's become basically a standard procedure for any Mets starter at some point in their controllable years, so it has to be something worse for them to not have even though of offering him any bonus whatsoever.

This wasn't about money... it was about them making a bet that he will never be a difference maker at the MLB level, right?

So something degenerative? Something that can't be fixed? If it was shoulder issues that would make sense but it's already been reported that it's his elbow.


No idea but I agree with your guess, something degenerative or chronic, not acute. It was a different regime but they gave Ginn 3m when he was already down with TJS. And Sandy signed Kay after they found out he needed TJS. If it were just TJS i think they'd have signed him.

6 years later we don't know why they backed out of the Carlos Gomez trade. But he did precipitously fall off a cliff, so maybe they saw something? Maybe one day someone related to kevin plawecki will spill the beans.

there's just no world where this was anyone's preferred outcome and unlike in the wilpon era we can be confident it's not a financial decision (as cohen was eager to point out). It just sucks all around and imo MLB/MLBPA deserve most of the blame for not just having some kind of formalized medical discovery ahead of the draft like every other sport.
regarding the Rocker thing...  
ryanmkeane : 8/2/2021 12:16 pm : link
one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made.

Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it.

Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.
...  
ryanmkeane : 8/2/2021 12:17 pm : link
why would the Mets sign Conforto at this point when there will be much cheaper options for the same performance?
RE: regarding the Rocker thing...  
Mike in NY : 8/2/2021 12:35 pm : link
In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made.

Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it.

Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.


If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects.
Mike agreed...  
ryanmkeane : 8/2/2021 12:39 pm : link
I could see it playing out like Strasburg's career where he just always had issues, perhaps that's what the Mets were thinking. If it was just TJ you're right in that it's not a deal breaker
RE: RE: regarding the Rocker thing...  
moze1021 : 8/2/2021 12:57 pm : link
In comment 15319718 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made.

Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it.

Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.



If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects.


Something I learned... top MLB prospects can voluntarily participate in a medical program (including MRIs) and then clubs are bound to offer a % of the slot value to them..

Rocker declined. So the Mets didn't have to offer anything.

I read this on twitter, and have googled pieces of it to confirm, but maybe I'm wrong.

Either way, I agree with you. Owners should push hard in next CBA for a combine type event for all top 100 players AND for locking rights to players that don't allow them to go back to school... so in Rockers case he could have either done the medicals before hand and let the chips fall where they may during draft OR not participate in the combine event, but then Mets would own his rights in perpetuity and he could sign or not for whatever they offered (thus incentivizing everyone to participate in the combine)
RE: RE: RE: regarding the Rocker thing...  
Mike in NY : 8/2/2021 1:10 pm : link
In comment 15319769 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15319718 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made.

Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it.

Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.



If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects.



Something I learned... top MLB prospects can voluntarily participate in a medical program (including MRIs) and then clubs are bound to offer a % of the slot value to them..

Rocker declined. So the Mets didn't have to offer anything.

I read this on twitter, and have googled pieces of it to confirm, but maybe I'm wrong.

Either way, I agree with you. Owners should push hard in next CBA for a combine type event for all top 100 players AND for locking rights to players that don't allow them to go back to school... so in Rockers case he could have either done the medicals before hand and let the chips fall where they may during draft OR not participate in the combine event, but then Mets would own his rights in perpetuity and he could sign or not for whatever they offered (thus incentivizing everyone to participate in the combine)


If a player participates, a team has to offer a minimum of 40% of slot in order to be eligible to receive a compensation pick if someone drafted in the first 3 rounds fails to sign (the first two rounds and Competitive Balance A & B I believe it is the pick after the pick you selected the player hence why Mets will pick 11th next year, and for unsigned 3rd rounders it comes at the end of Round 3)
here's 1 thing the Mets aren't getting credit for in this decision  
Eric on Li : 8/2/2021 2:39 pm : link
thanks to their own very solid draft record the past several years you need to treat the value of next year's #11 pick and $4.5m like it's Brett Baty ($3.9m), PCA (3.35m), or Kelenic ($4.5m). Those are their last 3 firsts prior to Kumar all ranked in the 5-15 overall range of their draft classes and all within the slot budget they now get next year. You may as well also factor in that going underslot for Baty is what got them Allen, going underslot for Kelenic helped get them SWR, and they showed with Kumar they are unafraid to go all the way up to 6m. So lots of alternative strategies for next year.

So if because Rocker and Boras decided to withhold medical info (their choice) and then something came up unexpectedly in a physical, that's what you have to evaluate the decision to sign him against. And that's a pretty high bar for any SP to overcome. Unless you think Rocker is Verlander it's an understandable decision either way (and I'm sure would move more towards punting to next year the more complicated the medical part is).
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