NFT: Reds vs Mets, Rubber Match / Gutiérrez vs Stroman

take this series and they have momentum going into 4 @ MIA.

this is a game the offense should win - big fan of today's lineup. McNeil has been locked in the last few weeks, Alonso is obviously Alonso, Dom had the big hit last night and is due for a hot streak, and Baez gives them a major threat at cleanup. Would be nice to get ahead for once this series with some early runs from that group.

In comment 15318849 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

take this series and they have momentum going into 4 @ MIA. this is a game the offense should win - big fan of today's lineup. McNeil has been locked in the last few weeks, Alonso is obviously Alonso, Dom had the big hit last night and is due for a hot streak, and Baez gives them a major threat at cleanup. Would be nice to get ahead for once this series with some early runs from that group.

I'm in to see what Drury is going to do next!

Today is the deadline to sign Kumar Rocker.

With reports to the contrary, I'm leaning towards him not being signed. Hope I'm wrong.

In comment 15318852 allstarjim said:

Quote:

Today is the deadline to sign Kumar Rocker. With reports to the contrary, I'm leaning towards him not being signed. Hope I'm wrong.

What is the end result of NOT signing him?
Do we just lose the pick
is there any benefit?

In comment 15318861 NewBlue said:

Quote:

In comment 15318852 allstarjim said: Quote: Today is the deadline to sign Kumar Rocker. With reports to the contrary, I'm leaning towards him not being signed. Hope I'm wrong. What is the end result of NOT signing him? Do we just lose the pick is there any benefit?

he goes into next years draft and I believe the Mets get next years #11 pick

receive one pick later than the one they blew, in this case the Mets would get the 11th pick.

from Baseball Prospectus


Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
8m
I’ll save my Rocker thoughts for 5:30, but not gonna be able to sell me on this being anything other than a disaster draft when there’s no first round pick and you are one million under pool on the rest of it. If you don’t have the meds on your top arm take a backup prep Day 3.

Passan ss reporting the Mets are not expected to sign Rocker

that's approximately how much they would get in bonus pool money next year with the replacement first round pick.

for context remember in 2019 they took Baty @ 12 and paid him 3.9m which was underslot and then went over slot to pay Matt Allan 2.5m in the 3rd round.

in 2020 they paid PCA slot which was 3.3m and then gave Ginn a 2.9m bonus.

so it's really an evaluation of what they think Kumar is worth with whatever the injury is. They thought he was a 6m talent when they took. They paid Ginn 2.9m knowing he needed TJS so it would seem like it would have to be a pretty bad injury to not sign Kumar.

not a "pretty bad injury". He could pitch tomorrow if needed.

essence Scott Boras and the Mets colluded to push Rocker to 10 at 6 million dollars. Post draft the Mets learned Rocker had a previous elbow procedure. Boras did not disclose this as to him, Rocker's current health was what was relevant. The Mets are angry at Boras. That's the long and short of this.

he need TJ in the future? No clue but Rocker's current elbow health is not why they won't be signing him. The Mets are clashing with Boras. This won't be revealed as some "really bad" injury. Rocker will be ready to go for Vandy's season.

Zach Braziller
@NYPost_Brazille
·
19s
If the #mets don't sign Kumar Rocker, it's an organization failure from the very top on down. Wilpons would get crushed for this, and after a very underwhelming trade deadline, someone has to answer for this.

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
ANOTHER injury, out of the blue: Luis Guillorme has a left hamstring strain and is going on the IL.

Pitcher Geoff Hartlieb up.

Negotiated in bad faith.

Obviously elbow surgeries are relevant.

Dan, can you explain how "Boras and the Mets colluded?" I'm unclear as to how the Mets colluded in this scenario.

Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
·
1m
Replying to
@PSLToFlushing
I am very disappointed by this news. I am not privy to medicals, so I have no idea what the Mets see. But passing on a top 10 pick and not having another lottery ticket pick to throw $ to is a questionable look.

They’ll have two 1st rounders in 2022. #11 and their own.



Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
5m
Replying to
@jaseidler
You’re going to read people saying otherwise and talking why prospects should always turn over medicals or that they can make up value next year. The Mets will (unethically) leak the most ominous medical shit they have to friendly reporters. Just pay the player what you promised!



Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
2m
If you think this Mets regime is ever getting agent cooperation on a float again you’re out of your fucking mind btw

In comment 15318883 allstarjim said:

Quote:

Negotiated in bad faith. Obviously elbow surgeries are relevant. Dan, can you explain how "Boras and the Mets colluded?" I'm unclear as to how the Mets colluded in this scenario.

It's called "floating". Jarrett Seidler from Baseball Prospectus actually makes reference to it here in his most recent tweet. Players make clear they won't sign with XYZ or will only sign for X number to push their way to a specific team.


"
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
2m
If you think this Mets regime is ever getting agent cooperation on a float again you’re out of your fucking mind btw"

All indications are this is NOT a debilitating issue and $6m should not be a serious stumbling block for the Cohen Mets, especially when you consider the pool money was already allocated to begin with.

Mad at Boras or not, it doesn't make sense to me for them not to sign him.

The Mets are getting all the bad press here, but Boras and Rocker intentionally withheld pertinent medical info. Not sure why they get the free pass on this.

In comment 15318891 moespree said:

Quote:

All indications are this is NOT a debilitating issue and $6m should not be a serious stumbling block for the Cohen Mets, especially when you consider the pool money was already allocated to begin with. Mad at Boras or not, it doesn't make sense to me for them not to sign him.

Because if you let an agent dick you around on medicals, they'll do it again.

In comment 15318892 allstarjim said:

Quote:

The Mets are getting all the bad press here, but Boras and Rocker intentionally withheld pertinent medical info. Not sure why they get the free pass on this.

Because previous health issues are not considered necessary information in the MLB draft process. There are no physicals given by teams. Boras has a positive reputation for giving medical information regarding his clients league-wide, including the draft.

See new Tweets
Conversation
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
Again, Boras will always work with you if the money is there, but he’s not going to trust your handshake anymore. A *lot* more of this stuff is done on good faith handshakes than I think fans or even most writers realize

are Mets hating members of the media saying this stuff. Many/most of these guys are actually Mets fans who work in the field



Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
·
1m
Building up the farm system takes time, especially when you traded a bunch of prospects over the last few years.

Sure, they can draft well next year, but not signing a guy I would rank #2 and trading last years first rounder is the opposite of how you build up a farm system


D.J. Short
@djshort
·
2m
The Mets could sign Kumar Rocker for middle reliever money. I don’t know the medical info, but it seems foolish to not just take the gamble, especially when you didn’t have a backup plan. This is a major failure all the way around and the Mets deserve all the heat they will get.

In comment 15318897 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 15318892 allstarjim said: Quote: The Mets are getting all the bad press here, but Boras and Rocker intentionally withheld pertinent medical info. Not sure why they get the free pass on this. Because previous health issues are not considered necessary information in the MLB draft process. There are no physicals given by teams. Boras has a positive reputation for giving medical information regarding his clients league-wide, including the draft.

But he didn't do it in this instance.

previous procedures are not normal disclosure. He could pitch tomorrow if necessary.

work for baseball prospectus, they know the ins and outs of this stuff (and are both oddly Mets fans). When they are hammering them, they clearly know what's up

"the Mets did not get Rocker's medicals before the draft (this is common, the MRI program for the draft is optional, and less pitchers opt out vs. opt in, Boras just gave them the standard assurance there was nothing severe there, agents only disclose current and deemed severe medical issues. Things that would impact a player ability to pitch in the following season. and he'd had a prior elbow procedure they didn't know about; the contention is basically Boras/Rocker side claiming it's not a present issue and the Mets claiming it should've been disclosed and would've factored into the pre-draft deal. This is strictly about the Mets feeling "duped" and wanting to lower his bonus. He will pitch for Vandy in 2022 if he doesn't sign with them"

Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
·
6m
The Mets and the Boras/Rocker camp sit about “a million dollars or so” apart in negotiations, per a source. Do not rule out them finding a middle ground at the last minute, like with the Lindor negotiations, but some heavy work would have to be done to get there.

@TheAmazinCiti

First there was the blowup with Boras and Beltran who did not trust Mets medical staff

Then the fitness guru Sandy hired who ended Wrights career

Then the whole mess with Harvey throwing 210 innings first year back from TJ. Basically ended Harveys career as an ace

Now tons of hamstrings and other avoidable injuries this year

What’s the common denominator? Sandy Alderson.

Overall, I think Sandy has done a good job. But just too many health issues to be a coincidence. The organization needs to
Bring in an outside medical
Consultant.

I'm finding it difficult to agree with the Boras play here. I relate it to my experience in Real Estate...."Oh, you wanted to know about the how the HVAC blew up last year?"

And Sideler's take...."Pay the kid what you promised him" Is downright wrong.

The whole thing is a cluster.

In comment 15318917 Named Later said:

Quote:

I'm finding it difficult to agree with the Boras play here. I relate it to my experience in Real Estate...."Oh, you wanted to know about the how the HVAC blew up last year?" And Sideler's take...."Pay the kid what you promised him" Is downright wrong. The whole thing is a cluster.

Rocker didn't miss any time due to injury so your example isn't really fair.



Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
44s
No. It is correct to assume *THE METS* think there is. There are two sides to this story



Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
22s
If you want to talk about how smart the Mets are here you cannot get around that they did not draft a backup plan. Every knowledgeable prospect writer talking about this is pointing that out. It has been the talk of the industry for two weeks.

Carlos Collazo
@CarlosACollazo
The #Mets entire draft strategy was based on an over slot deal for Kumar Rocker. Six of their top 10 round picks were underslot deals & the other 3 were slot. Additionally, there's no 11-20 round backup pick to pivot money to with all of those players signed for $125K or less.

lets just say the guys from BP/BA etc know exactly what's going on behind the scenes and what happened here and the Mets concerns/Rocker's health.

In comment 15318917 Named Later said:

Quote:

I'm finding it difficult to agree with the Boras play here. I relate it to my experience in Real Estate...."Oh, you wanted to know about the how the HVAC blew up last year?" And Sideler's take...."Pay the kid what you promised him" Is downright wrong. The whole thing is a cluster.

I'm also in real estate. I think our backgrounds definitely are coloring our opinion here.

In comment 15318915 Vanzetti said:

Quote:

First there was the blowup with Boras and Beltran who did not trust Mets medical staff Then the fitness guru Sandy hired who ended Wrights career Then the whole mess with Harvey throwing 210 innings first year back from TJ. Basically ended Harveys career as an ace Now tons of hamstrings and other avoidable injuries this year What’s the common denominator? Sandy Alderson. Overall, I think Sandy has done a good job. But just too many health issues to be a coincidence. The organization needs to Bring in an outside medical Consultant.

The organization has health issues but come on this is silly. David Wright broke his back playing baseball and he developed a degenerative condition trying to play through that.

Beltran (and others) did not trust the mets medical staff but that was a group Alderson inherited during the Wilpon years.

With Harvey they bent over backwards to protect him and the end of year situation was avoidable if he had been willing to skip starts during the year to keep his innings down - but he wasn't.

they 100% need to revamp their performance team but Altcheck and the HSS have about as good of reputations as you can ask for. the performance side of things is where they have been behind the times but that's likely purely because like everything else the Wilpons didn't invest smartly.

Sometimes there can be a fair disagreement about what constitutes a "big deal" or not.

Let's get off to a fast start here.

had they taken 1 bonus long shot late and been able to throw $1.5m+ at that player AND get the pick again next year I'd have no issue with how they are playing this.

I have a slight issue with how they are playing this if Rocker is a) not a serious injury risk and b) as good as they seemed to think he is by being willing to pay him $6m.

however - if perhaps they only liked more than the other options this year but didn't think he was anything special as a prospect, and the $6m was more of a strategic thing to get him to drop than an endorsement of his talent, then I think it's understandable to make a point. They will be able to add a Ginn/Allan next year with the extra money.

bottom line even if they are 100% right and feel burned I don't think they should make a point at the expense of the team if they think this kid is Verlander or Cole. but if they think Kumar is on the level of the Allan/Ginn types and is replaceable next year so be it.

All that said if I could get good odds right now I bet he signs and each side gives up $500k. Everyone will look bad (especially Boras) if his player loses money, so this is one of those cases where it probably makes sense for him to just eat his commission if need be just to keep his client happy.

imagine being Rocker, knowing he already had some velocity issues this year, and your agent may have cost you $6m because of a miscommunication? Boras is on the hot seat. And this leak that the Mets are gonna walk seems very conveniently timed to make it that much hotter. The player has the most to lose in this situation so I think that side will blink one way or another.

Expected to sign with Florida for $4.55M. At that price I would have gone that direction over Rocker and had an extra $1.45M for other draft picks.

Tough to go from "about to be a multi'millionaire" to going back to college for another year and all the "what-ifs" that could entail.

That said, if there's bad blood, and certainly you can easily believe there is, the player could easily draw a line in the sand as not wanting to play for this organization. But again, if he does so, you're still leaving a lot of money on the table hoping it will still be there next year.

In comment 15318945 allstarjim said:

Quote:

Tough to go from "about to be a multi'millionaire" to going back to college for another year and all the "what-ifs" that could entail. That said, if there's bad blood, and certainly you can easily believe there is, the player could easily draw a line in the sand as not wanting to play for this organization. But again, if he does so, you're still leaving a lot of money on the table hoping it will still be there next year.

pitchers draw lines in sand at their own risk. TJS is basically a formality for more than half at this point. Remember when Matt Harvey refused to talk about extensions early?

Rocker's performance started to slip at the end of the year. The Mets Medical people should have asked more questions, but that's expecting too much of that bunch.
Boras could have been more forth-coming with the full picture, but that's expecting too much of that huckster.

Sideler is simply piling on. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it as a Mets fan from their Polo Grounds days.

Let's put this episode behind us and play ball for 2 solid months....or is that expecting too much.

In comment 15318943 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

Expected to sign with Florida for $4.55M. At that price I would have gone that direction over Rocker and had an extra $1.45M for other draft picks.

I agree in theory for a high upside overslot position player as opposed to a pitcher.

That said Watson's profile seems very boom or bust. We've had good luck recently with HS bats but they've all been very polished hitters. Dom, Baty, and Kelenic were all in the convo for "best hitter in HS class". PCA too I think even though obviously he has only barely debuted so who knows. None of those guys were super sexy picks but all were pure hitters pretty much right away.

But that's in part why I don't mind punting the $4.5m to next year. Is Kumar with injury risk definitively better than picking the next Kelenic/Baty/PCA? And possibly using some money from the pick slot to go overslot with another pick?

i know it's kind of easy to look at both Bryant and Baez as similar upgrades but the multiple dimensions Baez adds imo makes him a whole other level of addition. Bryant was a marginal upgrade on JDD both hitting and in the field. The ability of Baez to impact the game on defense from multiple positions is huge.

I'm far far more enthused about the idea of a multi-year deal for Baez than I would have been for Bryant (or Conforto for that matter).

Really feeling the impact of that partial day off that Rojas gave him.

a starting pitcher. And one with a near 5 ERA as well.

Especially with that walk at the end there, completely non-competitive pitch in the dirt

Now Castro has to get a big out with little wiggle room for error.

But mainly, coming off one of the best wins of the season, the team comes out flat.

Really haven't liked the offensive approach and lack of quality ABs today.

With the immediate BB. Don't walk the pitcher.

Castro can’t throw strikes. Guy never has a clean appearance.

on 4 pitches. Guy is a waste.

Castro walks in the opposing pitcher on 4 pitchers to walk in the run. Mental midget. And poor choice to enter the game in this situation.

Castro is ridiculous, so erratic. No Keith, this is not unusual for Castro.

All he had to do is throw a batting practice fastball, get me over, and he couldn't do that with the pitcher up. Now a big hit and this is really over.

in mop up situations. He’s terrible.

In there with the 8th and 9th batters up, despite him just giving up a BB.

I guess the bloom is off the rose for Drury.

Such a disappointing game today after a big lift last night. If they lose this game, I almost feel they have to sweep in Miami.

After the top of the 9th, veey likely we see Garrett vs Báez.

Not how I drew it up.

In comment 15318892 allstarjim said:

Quote:

The Mets are getting all the bad press here, but Boras and Rocker intentionally withheld pertinent medical info. Not sure why they get the free pass on this.

Agreed. The criticism on the Mets not backing it up with a high school player is valid. I don’t blame the Mets for being pissed at undisclosed injuries if they would not have signed Rocker for $6 million knowing that. If they sign him, great. If they aren’t comfortable with the medicals, they get the #11 pick next year in an even better draft from what I have read. Nothing to get up in arms about imo

Especially not even having played the Dodgers or Giants yet at all.

Pretty embarrassing for the front office to forfeit near $1.5M in slot money. Cohen should be furious.

If Rocker ends up pitching great next year, someone should be fired.

ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5.

Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season.

trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed

fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft

Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?

I’m not loving at all Sandys return to the Mets. And I’m not sold on Scott being anything more than a deputy GM type.

Cohen needs to really make some changes again there in offseason. Mets have a pivotal directional off-season coming up. Tons of free agent or qualifying decisions that aren’t so simple. They are also bereft of near ML caliber pitching which will force them to make a painful trade or two or also inflate the payroll for coming years still. OF and 3B will be question marks.

I’m skeptical of Stroman and Conforto being brought back. My guess is they qualify Syndergaard and overpay on Baez to keep Lindor happy.

Starling Marte. Won’t be cheap but he’d be a nice fit here IMO

need to win that series and then win against Philly. if they don't show up to beat the Marlins - currently on a 4 game losing streak and not lined up to face Alcantara - and don't win the series against Philly that's the time to start getting worried. Losing to Cincy sucks but they are a decent team and we happened to catch Gray/Miley. Miami is a different story and if they want to be a playoff team the result needs to reflect that.

Bring the top 100 prospects and do all your interviews, medicals, measurables BEFORE the draft.

In comment 15319057 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5. Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season. trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?

Baez has to move positions but he's played both of the positions he'd move to, he'd previously said he was open to it, and 1 them had previously been the biggest need on the team (3b). I'd have preferred to give up Ginn or Palmer and Davis instead of PCA, but not if it meant getting Bryant instead of Baez because Bryant likely would have been a pure rental.

and little to no minor league development due to covid and shoulder injury.

Who knows how he will bounce back from injury.

Baez is an immediate injection of much needed offense, albeit streaky.

We must beat up on the Marlins and win the Phillies series.

Quote:

D.J. Short @djshort Without the benefit of knowing the medicals, I have a really hard time believing the Mets would blow up something with Rocker over money or a difference of a million or something. It makes no sense, especially knowing how this would be received by fans who were legit excited. 3:14pm · 1 Aug 2021 · Twitter for iPhone D.J. Short @djshort 10m I’m not taking the Mets side, but this just sucks all around. For the team and for the player who has this on his back as he starts his pro career. It’ll be years before we know what was right, so spending this moment arguing about it is fruitless. 9m The real issue is the process of the Mets’ draft beyond Rocker and what they left on the table.

The failure was not having a backup plan to spend the now wasted pool money on. Kumar sounded like a fine prospect but any time I read "velo drop" I expect TJS so irrespective of whatever the Mets beef was, that was a red flag for an already risky asset class to invest in (P).

Unless it's Justin Verlander, I'd really much rather continue the strategy of taking quality hitters early (like Kelenic, PCA, Baty) and taking a shot with an overslot arm in rounds 2/3 (like SWR, Wolff, Allan, Ginn). Pay for pitchers in FA when you don't have to hope they stay healthy developing for 3-4 extra years. That's a solid formula.

play indy league or something like Strasburg (?) did?

or gets surgery to repair whatever was wrong medically?

and then he goes back into the 2022 draft?

In comment 15319057 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

ends with losing 2 of 3 to the reds to end the week (Monday to Sunday) at 3 - 5. Find out deGrom had a set back and *may* return for the last week of the season. trade their top OF prospect for a SS who is an impending FA and will have to move positions and be re-signed fail to come to terms with the #10 pick in the draft Did I miss anything? Any new sexual harassment lawsuits?

there has been no talk of degrom being out that long

In comment 15319115 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

Unless it's Justin Verlander, I'd really much rather continue the strategy of taking quality hitters early (like Kelenic, PCA, Baty) and taking a shot with an overslot arm in rounds 2/3 (like SWR, Wolff, Allan, Ginn). Pay for pitchers in FA when you don't have to hope they stay healthy developing for 3-4 extra years. That's a solid formula.

This sounds like how the Yankees operated in the teens.

In comment 15318880 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Zach Braziller @NYPost_Brazille · 19s If the #mets don't sign Kumar Rocker, it's an organization failure from the very top on down. Wilpons would get crushed for this, and after a very underwhelming trade deadline, someone has to answer for this.

Well, no they don't. They should, but they don't have to answer to anyone for anything. It's entirely up to them.

what next years crop looks like?

Feel like that might play into the Mets decision here as well.

In comment 15319150 Rory said:

Quote:

what next years crop looks like? Feel like that might play into the Mets decision here as well.

From what I hear it’s a very good draft class next year.

In comment 15319139 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

play indy league or something like Strasburg (?) did? or gets surgery to repair whatever was wrong medically? and then he goes back into the 2022 draft?

He probably goes back to school...

Also, I think a statement was released today claiming he has no medical issue...so surgery seems unlikely.

Maybe that's where it broke down?? Maybe he claimed he wouldn't hey surgery and they wanted him to?

he will forgo his senior season and turn pro - whatever that means.

really lost two 10 prospects this weekend.

Since most lists already had Rocker in the top 10.

In comment 15319164 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

he will forgo his senior season and turn pro - whatever that means.

Was just coming to say I saw the same...but if it's an interpretation of the Boras statement then I think it's still not so clear...Boras said:

"Kumar requires no medical attention and will continue to pitch in the regular course as he prepares to begin his professional career"

Steven Cohen
@StevenACohen2
·
1h
Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
· 2h
The New York Mets and Kumar Rocker, their first-round pick, did not come to an agreement on a deal. The Mets will get the 11th pick in the 2022 draft as compensation. Rocker will forgo returning to Vanderbilt and begin his pro career. He is now draft-eligible for 2022.
Show this thread

In comment 15319174 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan · 2h The New York Mets and Kumar Rocker, their first-round pick, did not come to an agreement on a deal. The Mets will get the 11th pick in the 2022 draft as compensation. Rocker will forgo returning to Vanderbilt and begin his pro career. He is now draft-eligible for 2022. Show this thread

Yes...then look in the tweet thread..it seems like Passan is just interpreting Boras's statement.

Media is all flailing with this ..they have no idea what happened and its pretty obvious ..Martino just pushed a joke of an article that says nothing..

Basically says..all doctors that have reported their findings say nothing wrong with Rocker...Mets did a physical and didn't even offer him any bonus at all.

No one seems to have any clue what Mets saw or why they weren't interested in signing him.

May remain a mystery

In comment 15319171 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

Steven Cohen @StevenACohen2 · 1h Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.

Well I guess it means they really don't believe Rocker will become anything worth an investment based on what they saw??

But beyond that, it sounds like a tweet every future draft pick AND collective bargaining negotiators for the MLBPA will throw back in Cohen and the owners face...

Ive been a huge Cohen supporter but this tweet just seems shortsighted.

just seems like a shit show.

Maybe next year in the first they can take a HS kid who has sign-ability concerns and a college senior and undercut the college senior and use the under slot amount to sign the lottery ticket guy.

I was never happy about Alderson returning to the Mets. I have no opinion about Scott.

I obviously like Cohen but wish he would stop tweeting.

This was obviously mishandled at some level, but part of me loves Cohen poking Boras in the eye.

Is a first round pick can save you roughly five times the salary it would cost to have a comparable free agent. Because the draft pick makes much less for his first six seasons.


Thus, he is not going to throw away that potential return on investment on a guy who very likely will have arm trouble based on undisclosed medical information from the past. Instead, he will draft another guy next season who will meet that ROI

is saying he doesn't believe Rocker will live up to the draft slot expectations.

Is that someone told Cohen that next years draft is projected to strong and with that he decided it's better long-term investment to take the multiple picks next year on hopefully healthier players, rather than a risky one on Rocker.

provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed.

It's the only thing that makes any sense but of the parties directly involved it's either unethical/illegal (mets) or not in their best interest (the player) to disclose the specifics. So we may never know exactly what they are worried about.

Cohen should just take the high road though. A quote about being adaptable and knowing when to hold em/fold em might have come off better than calling players assets. I think he is being triggered by people calling him cheap/like the Wilpons.

The team will get shit on but I give them credit for having the balls to do something wildly unpopular. The easy thing would have been to just hope for the best so I expect there's a reason they didn't just do that. It sucks they burned $1.5m but on a deeper look it may not have gone that far (unless they combined it with another high pick). SWR, Wolf, Greene all got close to $2m bonuses so it's not like they could have just pick some great leftover HS'er and definitely signed them. Ginn and Allan each got more like $3m. Last time they found an extra $1m all it got them was Cameron Planck.

At least next year's draft will be more fun with 2 firsts.

In comment 15319256 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed.

Well what's your guess??

It can't be need for Tommy John since that's become basically a standard procedure for any Mets starter at some point in their controllable years, so it has to be something worse for them to not have even though of offering him any bonus whatsoever.

This wasn't about money... it was about them making a bet that he will never be a difference maker at the MLB level, right?

So something degenerative? Something that can't be fixed? If it was shoulder issues that would make sense but it's already been reported that it's his elbow.

In comment 15319283 moze1021 said:

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In comment 15319256 Eric on Li said: Quote: provide ROI when they picked him and agreed to a $6m bonus right away. Something changed and only 1 thing makes sense. The turmoil started with the physical so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess broadly what must have changed. Well what's your guess?? It can't be need for Tommy John since that's become basically a standard procedure for any Mets starter at some point in their controllable years, so it has to be something worse for them to not have even though of offering him any bonus whatsoever. This wasn't about money... it was about them making a bet that he will never be a difference maker at the MLB level, right? So something degenerative? Something that can't be fixed? If it was shoulder issues that would make sense but it's already been reported that it's his elbow.

No idea but I agree with your guess, something degenerative or chronic, not acute. It was a different regime but they gave Ginn 3m when he was already down with TJS. And Sandy signed Kay after they found out he needed TJS. If it were just TJS i think they'd have signed him.

6 years later we don't know why they backed out of the Carlos Gomez trade. But he did precipitously fall off a cliff, so maybe they saw something? Maybe one day someone related to kevin plawecki will spill the beans.

there's just no world where this was anyone's preferred outcome and unlike in the wilpon era we can be confident it's not a financial decision (as cohen was eager to point out). It just sucks all around and imo MLB/MLBPA deserve most of the blame for not just having some kind of formalized medical discovery ahead of the draft like every other sport.

one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made.

Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it.

Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.

why would the Mets sign Conforto at this point when there will be much cheaper options for the same performance?

In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said:

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one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made. Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it. Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years.

If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects.

I could see it playing out like Strasburg's career where he just always had issues, perhaps that's what the Mets were thinking. If it was just TJ you're right in that it's not a deal breaker

In comment 15319718 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said: Quote: one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made. Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it. Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years. If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects.

Something I learned... top MLB prospects can voluntarily participate in a medical program (including MRIs) and then clubs are bound to offer a % of the slot value to them..

Rocker declined. So the Mets didn't have to offer anything.

I read this on twitter, and have googled pieces of it to confirm, but maybe I'm wrong.

Either way, I agree with you. Owners should push hard in next CBA for a combine type event for all top 100 players AND for locking rights to players that don't allow them to go back to school... so in Rockers case he could have either done the medicals before hand and let the chips fall where they may during draft OR not participate in the combine event, but then Mets would own his rights in perpetuity and he could sign or not for whatever they offered (thus incentivizing everyone to participate in the combine)

In comment 15319769 moze1021 said:

Quote:

In comment 15319718 Mike in NY said: Quote: In comment 15319674 ryanmkeane said: Quote: one thing you can't blame the Mets for is sticking to their guns on this. If they think he will struggle to come back from those medical issues or will have to get TJ eventually, then I'm totally OK with the move they made. Now, picking him in the first place is another story. But, so be it. Everyone saying this is an "organizational failure from top to bottom" need to chill. What would have been a failure is if they signed him, and then he had medical issues the first few years. If eventually needing TJ was all there is I would be annoyed with the Mets because almost every pitcher these days needs TJ at some point. Now if it revealed something like Brady Aiken which indicates that TJ might not be feasible then I can see calling off negotiations. Baseball should have something like NFL does with medicals for highly ranked prospects. Something I learned... top MLB prospects can voluntarily participate in a medical program (including MRIs) and then clubs are bound to offer a % of the slot value to them.. Rocker declined. So the Mets didn't have to offer anything. I read this on twitter, and have googled pieces of it to confirm, but maybe I'm wrong. Either way, I agree with you. Owners should push hard in next CBA for a combine type event for all top 100 players AND for locking rights to players that don't allow them to go back to school... so in Rockers case he could have either done the medicals before hand and let the chips fall where they may during draft OR not participate in the combine event, but then Mets would own his rights in perpetuity and he could sign or not for whatever they offered (thus incentivizing everyone to participate in the combine)

If a player participates, a team has to offer a minimum of 40% of slot in order to be eligible to receive a compensation pick if someone drafted in the first 3 rounds fails to sign (the first two rounds and Competitive Balance A & B I believe it is the pick after the pick you selected the player hence why Mets will pick 11th next year, and for unsigned 3rd rounders it comes at the end of Round 3)

thanks to their own very solid draft record the past several years you need to treat the value of next year's #11 pick and $4.5m like it's Brett Baty ($3.9m), PCA (3.35m), or Kelenic ($4.5m). Those are their last 3 firsts prior to Kumar all ranked in the 5-15 overall range of their draft classes and all within the slot budget they now get next year. You may as well also factor in that going underslot for Baty is what got them Allen, going underslot for Kelenic helped get them SWR, and they showed with Kumar they are unafraid to go all the way up to 6m. So lots of alternative strategies for next year.

So if because Rocker and Boras decided to withhold medical info (their choice) and then something came up unexpectedly in a physical, that's what you have to evaluate the decision to sign him against. And that's a pretty high bar for any SP to overcome. Unless you think Rocker is Verlander it's an understandable decision either way (and I'm sure would move more towards punting to next year the more complicated the medical part is).