Alice in Chains "It's over now" is ringing in my head.
Look, I know that technically it isn't over but what a boring team. In a matter of one week the feeling and outlook of this team has changed. Baez injected some life after a disappointing trading deadline, the Kumar Rocker mess.
When Cohen officially purchased the team, I didn't expect a snap of the finger change - his purchase energized the fanbase but now this "choke" is under his ownership. Where do we go from here? This team is bereft of talent. Playes like Villar were great in the early part of the season but seem to have hit a wall.
I haven't seen DanMetroMan on these boards lately? But what do you guys think? Does Steve recognize what Vanzetti posted?
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He is not a bad GM/ President. He is just incredibly mediocre with an outdated baseball philosophy.
I almost wish this team was hovering around 2nd for the illusion of "progress" - We are extremely fortunate to be in 1st and I think that, as I said, we are "choking" but may not be that good.
Our buddies in the Bronx are further out of a Wildcard and division yet have pushed the right buttons. To think that some were looking to let Cashman go.
Look, a reasonable thought would be this is only Year 1 of Cohen's ownership and I may be looking for some supporting thoughts. Sorry about the rant guys.
I said you have to live with the downside of Báez, but 5 strikeouts in a game is not it. He HAS to be better than that. That's a horrific performance. I don't believe I've ever witnessed a "platinum sombrero" before today. And ironically, it was a soft-tossing lefty starter today (type of pitcher Báez should crush).
The Mets are now at the bottom.
The reason the Mets continue to have these types of games, in my opinion, is that there are too many players on this team that begin to focus on having a good AB in a close game late.
Too many guys trying to hit 5-run homers. Pete is one of them. The bases loaded situation he had yesterday, I think it was, he begins to press. Part of it might be he's never had a Grand Slam. But he never will unless he stops being over-aggressive in those situations and getting down in the count. There's a reason this team is batting what they are with RISP. And this is a continuation of last year as well.
are outclassing Mets' batters simply by game plan. The approach of many of the Mets, particularly with runners on, is very predictable. There are veteran guys with an approach akin to a rookie playing in his first game. I see it over and over.
You see guys get back into counts because some of these guys decide to swing in 3-1 counts no matter what the pitch location is. Or they are swinging 2-0 with no pitch recognition.
The guys taking the best ABs on this team right now are McNeil, Nimmo, and...Conforto. And I say Conforto because he at least isn't trying to do too much. He's staying back. If he gets a ball to drive he drives it, but he's not over-swinging.
I should include Dom. The problem with this is...Nimmo is simply getting on base, Dom is hitting singles all the time, and Conforto is getting BABIP'ed to a degree. The only guy I really trust to deliver in an RBI situation right now is McNeil.
It's time these players try to take some stock and go back to the drawing board. Pete, Báez, Davis (looks completely lost), McCann, Villar.
Báez won the game yesterday, but he was non-competitive today. And it really comes down to taking good approaches at the plate. You have to start thinking like the pitcher. These guys are getting owned by simply pitch selection and getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.
been taking a Mets break and I've really enjoyed not watching every inning of this team. I'll just offer this
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
been taking a Mets break and I've really enjoyed not watching every inning of this team. I'll just offer this
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
I really appreciate this post. And I'm inspired to take a Mets break myself. This team has been mostly a source of frustration for me for the last 20 years, with very few bright spots. Maybe I'll stop watching until Jacob deGrom comes back, if they have a snowball's chance by then.
find BBI to be the best source of Mets discussion around. I also like twitter for that but there are obviously downsides. I'm obviously still a huge Mets fan, I'm still heavily into checking out the minors and I have been watching "most" games. I just don't feel obligated to watch as I had been feeling. I was losing some interest in THIS team leading up to the deadline and the lack of pitching added really was the nail in the coffin. I doubt I check out for the remainder of the season (I plan on going to the game on Saturday in CBB weather permitting, as my GF planned a quickie trip to Philly)
for whatever it's worth I think this season has been almost best case
scenario when factoring everything out of anyone's control in - things I consider out of anyone's control are Porter's dickpic, McNeil and Conforto's hamstring injuries, Lindor's side, Rocker's issues during his physical etc. And fyi I don't consider all the injuries purely bad luck, especially the set backs. That's my single biggest area of frustration and where I think Cohen/Alderson have a responsibility to get it fixed yesterday.
they are at their lowest moment right now so of course it's logical to be down but they have played winning baseball all year despite an avalanche of injuries, most recently to their 2 best players.
All of that said there are 2 reasons I'm optimistic YTD.
1) the minor leaguers have had best case scenario seasons for most of the top 10.
2) Today on August 5th I'd still say they are in position to win the division, possibly even the favorite to do so. The phillies are highly flawed and would be nowhere if we didn't drop the ball on Wheeler, the Braves lost Acuna, the Nats sold their best players.
The next 3 games vs. PHI can undo all the damage they did over the last week. they have to stop getting down early and they have to start getting big hits. I don't know that it will happen but I do know that it can happen and if it starts it could easily snowball. Things usually balance out in baseball and this team has some quality players on it due for some balancing.
and well thought out analysis here guys. We all seem to be on the same page and understand where the improvements are needed and the root cause of current state.
You go on to Yankee board after a loss and its all just fire the manager, fire the coaches, cut the player, sell the team and off with his head.
Really appreciate this board day in day out, win or lose.
once Syndergaard went down (pre-covid) last year that team had basically no shot to win.
once Stroman opted out it was pretty much no shot.
before that the 2019 team was a colossal waste of talent because Mickey was in over his head and BVW wasted assets on guys who ended up having negative impacts.
so this was not a turnkey situation. this was a work in progress and to win big year 1 would have taken extreme good fortune. they have had the opposite of good fortunes and are still in 1st and 1 of the big reasons why they are still in first are the areas they improved around the margins. Defense, bullpen, bench depth. Those are steps in the right direction. As is the fact that we are in first, there will be "meaningful games" in sept, and nobody is doing victory laps. the bar has been raised and things are heading in the right direction.
...feeling better about the Mets. We are benefitting from a weak NL East. I hope we are trending in the right direction. Even the biggest Mets haters are starting to acknowledge this and while no one should use that as a barometer - I think we finally have the financial support needed to run a successful franchise.
as a Giants fan, I found myself on an "apology tour" for lack of a better term for almost winning the NFC East and it has a similar feel for the Mets - or whomever wins the division. The "Yeah but" line.
a dead horse and I'm not throwing in the towel on the season but based on where the Mets were and the status of deGrom, Syndergaard, and Lindor the Mets would have been smarter to "sell off" pieces like JD Davis, Familia, any of the scrap heap guys they added who are now playing key roles like Pillar and Villar, and more. not core guys, but all the others should have been on the block.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
a dead horse and I'm not throwing in the towel on the season but based on where the Mets were and the status of deGrom, Syndergaard, and Lindor the Mets would have been smarter to "sell off" pieces like JD Davis, Familia, any of the scrap heap guys they added who are now playing key roles like Pillar and Villar, and more. not core guys, but all the others should have been on the block.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
I don't think they have to extend Baez. I think if the price is right he's a player that fits well so it's an option but not a necessity. Conforto and Stroman are in the exact same boat, I'd prefer to have them back but wouldn't overpay because there may be a better use of the money.
It's a lot easier to buy players to fill in gaps in MLB free agency than NFL so it's very different. Also this roster has a bunch of guys who are due for extensions in the next few years so they can't afford to force money if a player doesn't fit.
if he plays great at 3b and helps lead them to the playoffs he will have leverage but if the team misses the playoffs and he doesn't play well I'd guess they let him walk. Remember a lot can change - when the Mets dealt for Cespedes his contract had that weird quirk where he couldn't be resigned. But the way things went on the field obviously changed that (much to everyone's excitement). And then as things ended up due to the injuries it would have been better if he just walked.
is if they don't extend Baez they traded PCA - their best OF prospect and a top 5 system prospect for 2 months of Baez in a dead-end season (if they miss the playoffs).
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
If the Mets fall short, I’m wondering if the Sandy/Zack Scott combo remains. As DMM eloquently posted - these guys are all doing jobs either they didn’t want or were not prepared for.
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
is if they don't extend Baez they traded PCA - their best OF prospect and a top 5 system prospect for 2 months of Baez in a dead-end season (if they miss the playoffs).
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
PCA was not 1 of the 5 best prospects in the system at the time he was traded. Alvarez, Mauricio, Baty are clearly and unanimously viewed ahead of him. Allan had been unanimously ahead of him pre-injury, since they each got injured for the season at almost the exact same time I don't see how PCA would be viewed ahead now (unless we could compare their medicals which only the Mets know). Preseason (and pre-PCA injury) Logenhagen actually had Vientos graded at a 50 and ahead of PCA too so after the season he has had I'd imagine that's still the case though there were plenty of preseason lists that had them ranked differently. I can't imagine the post-season lists will though. I'm not a prospect grader but in a binary world there's no way I'd trade Vientos over PCA right now. He is close to if not in the cluster with the top 3 guys in the system for me. Scherzer willing to extend is the only player I'd have even been tempted to consider dealing any of those 4 for.
So imo PCA was clearly 6th at best and I could see an argument of PCA vs. Ginn going either way. FG has both graded as 45's, they both got similar signing bonus $ so the Mets felt they were similar quality players. If I had to decide between the 2 it would almost definitely just be based on whatever the dr prognosis is for either. And I might also rank 1 or both behind Ramirez. They gave him the 3rd highest intl signing bonus in team history behind just Alvarez/Mauricio and at 18 years old he's playing at the same level PCA would have gone to when he next steps on the field at age 20. So imo PCA slotted in 6th-8th in the system at the time of his trade. The injury also adds a risk factor to him that didn't exist previously that's hard to quantify. By defacto it allowed other players to be harder to give up than him because they have comparable pedigrees and they are on the field performing. Preseason I'd have had him ahead of Baty/Vientos/Ginn but they've each performed very well and he had a major surgery.
So while I didn't want to or enjoy giving up PCA I'd have had a hard time giving up any of those 8 and quite frankly would have probably been more disappointed to give up any of the healthy ones. It may just be out of sight out of mind but the injury factor makes it more palatable than dealing any of those other high pedigree guys who are on the field performing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
If the Mets fall short, I’m wondering if the Sandy/Zack Scott combo remains. As DMM eloquently posted - these guys are all doing jobs either they didn’t want or were not prepared for.
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
if the team falls short I think you see them take another run at hiring a high profile president of baseball ops and possibly replacing Rojas. Scott I'm sure they would want to stay but it would depend on how he clicks with whoever the Pres is. Starting over from scratch would be counter productive in a lot of ways and Sandy doesn't have a reputation for his ego getting in the way. If they can find a highly competent FO exec to come in and run things they will hire that guy and that person's vision of the team will steer the ship going forward. Porter's dickpic set them back but they smartly didn't panic and elevate Scott permanently.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
To me it's not a different argument as I think I have articulated fairly clearly.
I would have been ok with buys that included fringe prospects only.
PCA for reasons I outlined, was too high a price, regardless where you rank him as a prospect for a player like Baez in his current contract state.
You latched on to the "he's not a top 5 prospect" portion of my post, and my response is still that point is semantics.
The Mets don't have a deep system especially thin at OF and SP. So, PCA whether he's top 5 or 8, is not a guy you give up for a middle infielder when that's your organizational strength - or an infielder of any type to be honest.
I don't see how anyone can defend the trade then or now.
and not re-signing Baez compounds how bad a trade it was IMO.
here's a pretty simple defense of the trade - which team in the division is better than them even without JDG?
Philly sweeping the shell of what used to be the Nats doesn't fix a bullpen that has been bottom of baseball all year and had to move it's closer into the starting rotation. Or a defense that's bottom of the league in most categories and top 10 in errors. Are Wheeler/Nola so much better than Carrasco/Stroman? Is Kyle Gibson their ace in the hole? I'm not saying they can't possibly get it together and go on a run, anything can happen, but is that really a roster worth laying down to?
If the Mets win the series this weekend they are back in the drivers seat - and that's without JDG or Lindor or Thor. Any 1 of those guys coming back is a big impact. Any 2 of them is a massive impact. And if all 3 of them happen to return - which is a possibility - they are suddenly back to being a team with a real chance to go deep. If just JDG came back healthy and they missed the playoffs by a few games over a mediocre philly team because they sold off at the deadline, wouldn't wasting a potential playoff run with JDG be a huge risk not worth taking? Selling anyone capable of bringing back a good return (like say Diaz) would have been a major risk not worth taking.
I was a big fan of the PCA pick. a bigger fan of that pick than Baty actually. But he does not project as some irreplaceable MVP level player. He projects as an excellent defensive CF with a solid hit tool so maybe a top of the order hitter. But even in a best case scenario I'm not sure he projects to be better than Nimmo, who they have under contract next year and they can easily resign if they want to. Or if over the next few offseasons they choose to sign the next George Springer. PCA is going to be in A ball at age 20 next year off a major surgery. I'm confident there will be viable alternatives found for CF by the time he is in position to contribute at the MLB level 2, 3, 4 seasons down the road. And they didn't just trade him for anyone - they traded him for a excellent defensive player with more run production than anyone on the team this year and enough positional flexibility to carve out a multi-year role. His ceiling is as high as coming in 2nd in MVP voting and we know that because it happened in 2018. Very few prospects realistically have that kind of upside - PCA likely included.
Javy Baez was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball so if you want to think of think of it that way the mets got the better prospect in the deal. And the healthier one. And the more proven one. He's just more expensive but we can let $teve worry about that.
Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
and that's to say nothing of the slide or the relay throw
that eliminated a run at home in those wins also. seriously if you can't see that Baez has had a positive impact in his 1 week here that says a lot more about you than it does how he's played so far.
RE: RE: Amazingly, in a sea of bad hitters this year
Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
I could do without the snark. We are all allowed opinions and nobody was disrespectful to you.
But yeah… thanks for pointing out what a player did over a 1-2 game same. Super helpful! I also saw him strike out 5 times yesterday swinging at anything and everything? Remember that game or is less than 24 hours too hard for you?
Now that's confirmation bias if I've ever seen it.
here's the DRS leaderboard sorted by the worst performers this year on the whole roster. Notice the commonality in terms of which position has been far and away the biggest negative? Whether Baez solves 3B by playing there or indirectly by McNeil solving it, that's a big need both right now and for the medium/long term depending on how Vientos or Baty develop defensively. Imagine the luxury of having 2 gold glove short stops, 1 of whom can play multiple positions.
RE: Now that's confirmation bias if I've ever seen it.
Baez has been one of the few offensive players with a pulse the week he's been here.
Confirmation bias? He has a wRC+ 102 for his career. He’s at 101 today. Doesn’t get more “league average” than that. I’m glad he helped us in two games and I expect he will help us in more, but let’s please stop acting like this guy is some polished hitter. He’ll be equally infuriating at times.
Af SS or 2B and both those spots are taken for the foreseeable future. In order to warrant Baez playing at 3B, he has to hit more. League average ain’t gonna cut it there long term.
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Trash lineup today benching Nimmo and McNeil. Starting Almora who should never get a PA ever again. This team feels no urgency.
both of those guys are playing through leg injuries and not running full speed. it cost them an xbh to CF a couple days ago.
And they're still getting on base/hitting better than anyone else. It's not the best time to give guys a break right now.
They all count, lol. I would never turn away a hit in an MLB game.
DP ball next?
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
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base hit. Way to go.
They all count, lol. I would never turn away a hit in an MLB game.
I didn't post that sarcastically.
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In comment 15323266 GF1080 said:
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Trash lineup today benching Nimmo and McNeil. Starting Almora who should never get a PA ever again. This team feels no urgency.
both of those guys are playing through leg injuries and not running full speed. it cost them an xbh to CF a couple days ago.
And they're still getting on base/hitting better than anyone else. It's not the best time to give guys a break right now.
and if you push it and they suffer a tear and are OFS, then how does your brilliant suggestion look?
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
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In comment 15323325 Mike in NY said:
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
No...JD K, Baez K, Conforto F8
But Villar just got a 2 out, 2 strike signle to score Almora to tie the game in the 6th
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In comment 15323329 allstarjim said:
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In comment 15323325 Mike in NY said:
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
No...JD K, Baez K, Conforto F8
But Villar just got a 2 out, 2 strike signle to score Almora to tie the game in the 6th
Almora is surprisingly 3 for 3. I hope this does not give Rojas any false ideas about him.
This team looks exactly like the Wilpon
Era Alderson teams.
This team looks exactly like the Wilpon
Era Alderson teams.
100% agree. Thought so for a while too and was not excited when they announced they were bringing him back.
Look, I know that technically it isn't over but what a boring team. In a matter of one week the feeling and outlook of this team has changed. Baez injected some life after a disappointing trading deadline, the Kumar Rocker mess.
When Cohen officially purchased the team, I didn't expect a snap of the finger change - his purchase energized the fanbase but now this "choke" is under his ownership. Where do we go from here? This team is bereft of talent. Playes like Villar were great in the early part of the season but seem to have hit a wall.
I haven't seen DanMetroMan on these boards lately? But what do you guys think? Does Steve recognize what Vanzetti posted?
He is not a bad GM/ President. He is just incredibly mediocre with an outdated baseball philosophy.
I almost wish this team was hovering around 2nd for the illusion of "progress" - We are extremely fortunate to be in 1st and I think that, as I said, we are "choking" but may not be that good.
Our buddies in the Bronx are further out of a Wildcard and division yet have pushed the right buttons. To think that some were looking to let Cashman go.
Look, a reasonable thought would be this is only Year 1 of Cohen's ownership and I may be looking for some supporting thoughts. Sorry about the rant guys.
The Mets are now at the bottom.
The reason the Mets continue to have these types of games, in my opinion, is that there are too many players on this team that begin to focus on having a good AB in a close game late.
Too many guys trying to hit 5-run homers. Pete is one of them. The bases loaded situation he had yesterday, I think it was, he begins to press. Part of it might be he's never had a Grand Slam. But he never will unless he stops being over-aggressive in those situations and getting down in the count. There's a reason this team is batting what they are with RISP. And this is a continuation of last year as well.
You see guys get back into counts because some of these guys decide to swing in 3-1 counts no matter what the pitch location is. Or they are swinging 2-0 with no pitch recognition.
The guys taking the best ABs on this team right now are McNeil, Nimmo, and...Conforto. And I say Conforto because he at least isn't trying to do too much. He's staying back. If he gets a ball to drive he drives it, but he's not over-swinging.
I should include Dom. The problem with this is...Nimmo is simply getting on base, Dom is hitting singles all the time, and Conforto is getting BABIP'ed to a degree. The only guy I really trust to deliver in an RBI situation right now is McNeil.
It's time these players try to take some stock and go back to the drawing board. Pete, Báez, Davis (looks completely lost), McCann, Villar.
Báez won the game yesterday, but he was non-competitive today. And it really comes down to taking good approaches at the plate. You have to start thinking like the pitcher. These guys are getting owned by simply pitch selection and getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
I really appreciate this post. And I'm inspired to take a Mets break myself. This team has been mostly a source of frustration for me for the last 20 years, with very few bright spots. Maybe I'll stop watching until Jacob deGrom comes back, if they have a snowball's chance by then.
they are at their lowest moment right now so of course it's logical to be down but they have played winning baseball all year despite an avalanche of injuries, most recently to their 2 best players.
All of that said there are 2 reasons I'm optimistic YTD.
1) the minor leaguers have had best case scenario seasons for most of the top 10.
2) Today on August 5th I'd still say they are in position to win the division, possibly even the favorite to do so. The phillies are highly flawed and would be nowhere if we didn't drop the ball on Wheeler, the Braves lost Acuna, the Nats sold their best players.
The next 3 games vs. PHI can undo all the damage they did over the last week. they have to stop getting down early and they have to start getting big hits. I don't know that it will happen but I do know that it can happen and if it starts it could easily snowball. Things usually balance out in baseball and this team has some quality players on it due for some balancing.
You go on to Yankee board after a loss and its all just fire the manager, fire the coaches, cut the player, sell the team and off with his head.
Really appreciate this board day in day out, win or lose.
once Stroman opted out it was pretty much no shot.
before that the 2019 team was a colossal waste of talent because Mickey was in over his head and BVW wasted assets on guys who ended up having negative impacts.
so this was not a turnkey situation. this was a work in progress and to win big year 1 would have taken extreme good fortune. they have had the opposite of good fortunes and are still in 1st and 1 of the big reasons why they are still in first are the areas they improved around the margins. Defense, bullpen, bench depth. Those are steps in the right direction. As is the fact that we are in first, there will be "meaningful games" in sept, and nobody is doing victory laps. the bar has been raised and things are heading in the right direction.
think we see Stroman and MC on other teams next year.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
I don't think they have to extend Baez. I think if the price is right he's a player that fits well so it's an option but not a necessity. Conforto and Stroman are in the exact same boat, I'd prefer to have them back but wouldn't overpay because there may be a better use of the money.
It's a lot easier to buy players to fill in gaps in MLB free agency than NFL so it's very different. Also this roster has a bunch of guys who are due for extensions in the next few years so they can't afford to force money if a player doesn't fit.
if he plays great at 3b and helps lead them to the playoffs he will have leverage but if the team misses the playoffs and he doesn't play well I'd guess they let him walk. Remember a lot can change - when the Mets dealt for Cespedes his contract had that weird quirk where he couldn't be resigned. But the way things went on the field obviously changed that (much to everyone's excitement). And then as things ended up due to the injuries it would have been better if he just walked.
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
PCA was not 1 of the 5 best prospects in the system at the time he was traded. Alvarez, Mauricio, Baty are clearly and unanimously viewed ahead of him. Allan had been unanimously ahead of him pre-injury, since they each got injured for the season at almost the exact same time I don't see how PCA would be viewed ahead now (unless we could compare their medicals which only the Mets know). Preseason (and pre-PCA injury) Logenhagen actually had Vientos graded at a 50 and ahead of PCA too so after the season he has had I'd imagine that's still the case though there were plenty of preseason lists that had them ranked differently. I can't imagine the post-season lists will though. I'm not a prospect grader but in a binary world there's no way I'd trade Vientos over PCA right now. He is close to if not in the cluster with the top 3 guys in the system for me. Scherzer willing to extend is the only player I'd have even been tempted to consider dealing any of those 4 for.
So imo PCA was clearly 6th at best and I could see an argument of PCA vs. Ginn going either way. FG has both graded as 45's, they both got similar signing bonus $ so the Mets felt they were similar quality players. If I had to decide between the 2 it would almost definitely just be based on whatever the dr prognosis is for either. And I might also rank 1 or both behind Ramirez. They gave him the 3rd highest intl signing bonus in team history behind just Alvarez/Mauricio and at 18 years old he's playing at the same level PCA would have gone to when he next steps on the field at age 20. So imo PCA slotted in 6th-8th in the system at the time of his trade. The injury also adds a risk factor to him that didn't exist previously that's hard to quantify. By defacto it allowed other players to be harder to give up than him because they have comparable pedigrees and they are on the field performing. Preseason I'd have had him ahead of Baty/Vientos/Ginn but they've each performed very well and he had a major surgery.
So while I didn't want to or enjoy giving up PCA I'd have had a hard time giving up any of those 8 and quite frankly would have probably been more disappointed to give up any of the healthy ones. It may just be out of sight out of mind but the injury factor makes it more palatable than dealing any of those other high pedigree guys who are on the field performing.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
if the team falls short I think you see them take another run at hiring a high profile president of baseball ops and possibly replacing Rojas. Scott I'm sure they would want to stay but it would depend on how he clicks with whoever the Pres is. Starting over from scratch would be counter productive in a lot of ways and Sandy doesn't have a reputation for his ego getting in the way. If they can find a highly competent FO exec to come in and run things they will hire that guy and that person's vision of the team will steer the ship going forward. Porter's dickpic set them back but they smartly didn't panic and elevate Scott permanently.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
I would have had a hard time parting with PCA for a good player with control, but for a two month rental, it’s borderline comical.
And before PCA’s surgery on his non-throwing arm’s shoulder, he very likely would have been a top 100 prospect and in our top 5.
If PCA returns to health the deal is indefensible imo unless we win a WS this year.
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I won't haggle over 5th, 6th, 8th prospect.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
To me it's not a different argument as I think I have articulated fairly clearly.
I would have been ok with buys that included fringe prospects only.
PCA for reasons I outlined, was too high a price, regardless where you rank him as a prospect for a player like Baez in his current contract state.
You latched on to the "he's not a top 5 prospect" portion of my post, and my response is still that point is semantics.
The Mets don't have a deep system especially thin at OF and SP. So, PCA whether he's top 5 or 8, is not a guy you give up for a middle infielder when that's your organizational strength - or an infielder of any type to be honest.
I don't see how anyone can defend the trade then or now.
and not re-signing Baez compounds how bad a trade it was IMO.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
Philly sweeping the shell of what used to be the Nats doesn't fix a bullpen that has been bottom of baseball all year and had to move it's closer into the starting rotation. Or a defense that's bottom of the league in most categories and top 10 in errors. Are Wheeler/Nola so much better than Carrasco/Stroman? Is Kyle Gibson their ace in the hole? I'm not saying they can't possibly get it together and go on a run, anything can happen, but is that really a roster worth laying down to?
If the Mets win the series this weekend they are back in the drivers seat - and that's without JDG or Lindor or Thor. Any 1 of those guys coming back is a big impact. Any 2 of them is a massive impact. And if all 3 of them happen to return - which is a possibility - they are suddenly back to being a team with a real chance to go deep. If just JDG came back healthy and they missed the playoffs by a few games over a mediocre philly team because they sold off at the deadline, wouldn't wasting a potential playoff run with JDG be a huge risk not worth taking? Selling anyone capable of bringing back a good return (like say Diaz) would have been a major risk not worth taking.
I was a big fan of the PCA pick. a bigger fan of that pick than Baty actually. But he does not project as some irreplaceable MVP level player. He projects as an excellent defensive CF with a solid hit tool so maybe a top of the order hitter. But even in a best case scenario I'm not sure he projects to be better than Nimmo, who they have under contract next year and they can easily resign if they want to. Or if over the next few offseasons they choose to sign the next George Springer. PCA is going to be in A ball at age 20 next year off a major surgery. I'm confident there will be viable alternatives found for CF by the time he is in position to contribute at the MLB level 2, 3, 4 seasons down the road. And they didn't just trade him for anyone - they traded him for a excellent defensive player with more run production than anyone on the team this year and enough positional flexibility to carve out a multi-year role. His ceiling is as high as coming in 2nd in MVP voting and we know that because it happened in 2018. Very few prospects realistically have that kind of upside - PCA likely included.
Javy Baez was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball so if you want to think of think of it that way the mets got the better prospect in the deal. And the healthier one. And the more proven one. He's just more expensive but we can let $teve worry about that.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
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Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
I could do without the snark. We are all allowed opinions and nobody was disrespectful to you.
But yeah… thanks for pointing out what a player did over a 1-2 game same. Super helpful! I also saw him strike out 5 times yesterday swinging at anything and everything? Remember that game or is less than 24 hours too hard for you?
Confirmation bias? He has a wRC+ 102 for his career. He’s at 101 today. Doesn’t get more “league average” than that. I’m glad he helped us in two games and I expect he will help us in more, but let’s please stop acting like this guy is some polished hitter. He’ll be equally infuriating at times.
Obviously, right over your head and you didn’t see the hypocrisy and irony in pointing to his 1-2 positive game sample as something of substance….
I’m well aware an 0-5, 5 k game means nothing as well….
I’d personally let him walk.