Jazz Chisholm – SS
Isan Diaz – 2B
Jesus Aguilar – 1B
Lewis Brinson – CF
Brian Anderson – 3B
Jorge Alfaro – LF
Bryan De La Cruz – RF
Alex Jackson – C
Zach Thompson – RHP
The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
He can certainly give each player a rest day a week, along with D Smith (with Mcneil).
The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
He can certainly give each player a rest day a week, along with D Smith (with Mcneil).
No. Not me, only if they "need" it. In a pennant race. All important games the rest of the way and I need to play my big bats every day. Keep in mind Báex and Lindor are also GG'ers. You're keeping that group together. This is overthinking it.
You just can't take one out of those 3 or 4 bats out of the lineup 3-4 times a week for Guillorme. And I like Luis.
They can, at this point it's a function of lengthening him put and not having him pitch the third time through the order, particularly with the top of the order coming up with RISP. If he gets a double play out of the Panik AB, I think he gets the 6th.
But remember, Carrasco only went three innings in his rehab starts, I think 4 IP in his first start for the Mets, so they are still stretching him out.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
I can get behind letting a player hit their way out of a slump
But Conforto is weeeeelllllllll past that. He’s a severe detriment to the team at this point. A literal zero. Rojas had no problem sitting McCann earlier in the season. Not sure why it’s different for Conforto.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
sucks up and down the lineup. Batter after batter swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. Pitchers know they don’t need to throw strikes to get them to swing.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
But the offense was horrible then and has continued to be horrible. I don’t know much about who took Chili’s place but it’s apparent that they didn’t change a single thing. Which is disappointing. If you are going to fire someone then you sure as hell better change something. I’m not into firing someone for nothing.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
The guy is a stud. He'll be pitching into the 7th and possibly 8th before too long.
Hill is mostly a 5 IP.
But mostly it's not about CAN a pitcher go deeper in games, but how managers are using analytics that say it's better to bring in the bullpen for the third time through the order.
It's the way games are being managed, not actual physical limitations on guys
In Megill's case, he runs up his pitch count a lot, so he's probably more of a 5 IP right now until he can get more efficient.
But the offense was horrible then and has continued to be horrible. I don’t know much about who took Chili’s place but it’s apparent that they didn’t change a single thing. Which is disappointing. If you are going to fire someone then you sure as hell better change something. I’m not into firing someone for nothing.
honestly coop, I think pitchers just figured our guys out and this current crop of players (except Alonso-McNeil) aren't good enough to make adjustments on their own and still be as good.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
Look at what Phils traded for Gibson
I don't mind them giving up PCA, prospects are essentially just lottery tickets. My main issue with the Baez trade is that I feel it will only marginally benefit the Mets once Lindor comes back. He is a big name but if you objectivley look at his offensive metrics, he is worse in most categories than Davis and McNeil. Dude homered as I was typing this lol. His glove at second will be what benefits them most when Lindor returns. I know a pitcher would have cost a lot, but in my opinion not adding a pitcher nearly equates to surrendering any chance of winning this year.
But the offense was horrible then and has continued to be horrible. I don’t know much about who took Chili’s place but it’s apparent that they didn’t change a single thing. Which is disappointing. If you are going to fire someone then you sure as hell better change something. I’m not into firing someone for nothing.
honestly coop, I think pitchers just figured our guys out and this current crop of players (except Alonso-McNeil) aren't good enough to make adjustments on their own and still be as good.
Totally agree, but that’s what we have coaches for. And when you have an entire lineup underperforming, that’s on them too. And it’s been the entire season.
I know that people don’t put much stock in managers/coaches making any impact on wins and losses…I wholeheartedly disagree. They play a massive role in the success of a team. Maybe it’s an approach thing. Who knows.
BUT - we know that things can turn on a dime in sports. Hopefully that happens here. Maybe Baez is just what they need - a brash player that can be a jolt of lightning for them.
I don't mind them giving up PCA, prospects are essentially just lottery tickets. My main issue with the Baez trade is that I feel it will only marginally benefit the Mets once Lindor comes back. He is a big name but if you objectivley look at his offensive metrics, he is worse in most categories than Davis and McNeil. Dude homered as I was typing this lol. His glove at second will be what benefits them most when Lindor returns. I know a pitcher would have cost a lot, but in my opinion not adding a pitcher nearly equates to surrendering any chance of winning this year.
there were arguably only 2 SP traded appreciably better than what they have. Scherzer refused to come here and Berrios would have cost a ton (what was the rumor Dom + Mauricio?). They inquired on both and rightfully passed on Berrios at that price.
Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
Look at what Phils traded for Gibson
I don't mind them giving up PCA, prospects are essentially just lottery tickets. My main issue with the Baez trade is that I feel it will only marginally benefit the Mets once Lindor comes back. He is a big name but if you objectivley look at his offensive metrics, he is worse in most categories than Davis and McNeil. Dude homered as I was typing this lol. His glove at second will be what benefits them most when Lindor returns. I know a pitcher would have cost a lot, but in my opinion not adding a pitcher nearly equates to surrendering any chance of winning this year.
There's talk Baez will go to 3B once Lindor returns. Mcneil's best position is 2B and they don't want to move him.
Is the difference in this game. Not just for the homer, but the amazing slide at the plate when he was dead to rights. There's only a few guys in baseball that makes that play.
To me, Báez, even though he has his dowside (OBP/K-rate), is EXACTLY what this team needs. Remember he has a ring, as well. A guy who's been where the Mets want to go. And he brings an attitude that frankly I think this team needs. A little edge has been missing. We all know what they say about nice guys.
I hope they extend him.
it sounds like mcneil's defense the past couple days made them
reconsider moving him to 3rd. I'd love to see a Lindor/Baez double play combo but Baez has experience playing 3b well and I think he'd do better shifting there in season than McNeil. Good to have good options though. Especially since JDD's hand sounds like it may hinder him the rest of the year.
Is the difference in this game. Not just for the homer, but the amazing slide at the plate when he was dead to rights. There's only a few guys in baseball that makes that play.
To me, Báez, even though he has his dowside (OBP/K-rate), is EXACTLY what this team needs. Remember he has a ring, as well. A guy who's been where the Mets want to go. And he brings an attitude that frankly I think this team needs. A little edge has been missing. We all know what they say about nice guys.
I hope they extend him.
Agreed. imo he impacts the game in a lot more ways than Bryant would have. So while we were all resigned to the possibility of some kind of less than PCA package for Bryant as a pure rental (JDD, Ginn, Palmer, Vientos), Baez delivers a lot more impact for the higher cost of acquisition. And his flexibility makes him a candidate to extend.
because Villar needs to go back to the bench as soon as possible. JD should be playing third base every damn day. My god, its not like we couldnt use a effing .900 OPS bat right now in the lineup.
And when Lindor comes back they better figure out some sort of a rotation. Play McNeil at 2B, RF, and LF. Play Baez at 3B and 2B. Rotate Dom and Conforto in and out. And keep JD's bat in the lineup as often as possible.
Conforto has quietly been getting some good ABs lately. Nice to see him get a couple of hits out of it tonight, but he's really taking good swings right now.
his average exit velocity is exactly the same as it was last year and his hard hit rate is up.
His xwoba this year is .349 and was .374 last year. That's not a very big difference.
his K rate is down 2%.
walk rate is up 3%.
so what's making this season so terrible compared to last year?
last year his BABIP was .412 (ridiculously high, highest in MLB last year and next closest was .396).
this year his BABIP is .242 coming into tonights game (would be 8th lowest in MLB among qualifiers).
when the hits were falling in last year he hit .322.
with hits not falling in this year he is hitting .197.
and again on the exact same average exit velocity and a higher hard hit %. Sometimes the defense is right where they need to be. But generally in baseball things even out close to the norms.
Could've pinch hit for Nido with McCann with a lefty in the game and runners on.
McCann has about an .850 OPS vs lefties this year, Nido about .650.
Now it's a 2-run game. Could've easily had a 4 run lead or more here.
Nido had a good AB. Swung at strikes, worked the count. He just got beat with a fastball .
No bro. He swung at balls way out of the strikezone.
Anyway, it was a poor decision regardless of how good an AB he had. Ultimately Nido didn't produce when you have a legit hitter against lefties on your bench.
Conforto has quietly been getting some good ABs lately. Nice to see him get a couple of hits out of it tonight, but he's really taking good swings right now.
Hit the ball hard into bad luck a couple times tonight too...good signs, but he's had these good signs games before this year. He needs to string together a week before we can exhale...
Baez will play very well at either 2nd or 3rd. McNeil has also played
his average exit velocity is exactly the same as it was last year and his hard hit rate is up.
His xwoba this year is .349 and was .374 last year. That's not a very big difference.
his K rate is down 2%.
walk rate is up 3%.
so what's making this season so terrible compared to last year?
last year his BABIP was .412 (ridiculously high, highest in MLB last year and next closest was .396).
this year his BABIP is .242 coming into tonights game (would be 8th lowest in MLB among qualifiers).
when the hits were falling in last year he hit .322.
with hits not falling in this year he is hitting .197.
and again on the exact same average exit velocity and a higher hard hit %. Sometimes the defense is right where they need to be. But generally in baseball things even out close to the norms.
But how do you explain the lack of home runs? That should be independent of babip and should be about the same if he is still making hard contact. To me that means something is significantly off with his swing.
Missed a lot of time and has not gotten back into the groove yet. I also think that it was psychologically tough on him when they gave Lindor that huge deal without offering him anything.
So he got off to a bad, then got injured and he just has not been able to put it all together.
Missed a lot of time and has not gotten back into the groove yet. I also think that it was psychologically tough on him when they gave Lindor that huge deal without offering him anything.
So he got off to a bad, then got injured and he just has not been able to put it all together.
Yeah it's kind of interesting...
In an era where guys are evaluated by statistics, it seems we are paying a guy $300M for being a solid, not spectacular player but I guess an excellent leader....had to rattle a guy a bit who has been the mainstay and key linkage to the Wright-led Mets and probably always thought he'd follow in those footsteps...
But how do you explain the lack of home runs? That should be independent of babip and should be about the same if he is still making hard contact. To me that means something is significantly off with his swing.
Last year he had 9 in 54 games so in a very good year he was only pacing between 20-25. He has never been Alonso. He hit 30 once. This year he's obviously below the 25 but if he stays healthy the rest of the way he will probably hit 12-15 even with the missed time. He almost had a couple in the last few days. This year he just hasn't yet had anything resembling a hot streak. Bad year combined with bad luck.
also not looking for a victory lap but I happened upon kike hernandez
yesterday and holy crap is he having a great year. Currently worth 3 fwar and 2nd best in all MLB with a ridiculous +12 DRS at CF (he'd have been a perfect partner to split time with Nimmo there and then also fill in around the IF). Baseball savant has him at the 100th percentile for outfield jump and 85th percentile in outs above average (+5 OAA in CF). Also 70th percentile in hard hit rate.
I know the 'illars have had a bunch of big hits and big plays all year but man does that 2 year investment in Hernandez look a lot better now as those 2 are seemingly running low on gas. Hernandez is just a different class of player for only an incremental amount more. And he was right there for the taking.
I would not be surprised to read some day in the near future
need more of the same from him as the season progresses.
Carrasco and Stroman are solid starters who would slot into just about any playoff rotation. Just need JDG to get back to pitch ahead of them and this is a really dangerous team. Get those three and you can live with the 4th starter whoever that ends up being between Walker/Megill/Hill/Thor although obviously a healthy Thor would be a huge upgrade.
Alice in Chains "It's over now" is ringing in my head.
Look, I know that technically it isn't over but what a boring team. In a matter of one week the feeling and outlook of this team has changed. Baez injected some life after a disappointing trading deadline, the Kumar Rocker mess.
When Cohen officially purchased the team, I didn't expect a snap of the finger change - his purchase energized the fanbase but now this "choke" is under his ownership. Where do we go from here? This team is bereft of talent. Playes like Villar were great in the early part of the season but seem to have hit a wall.
I haven't seen DanMetroMan on these boards lately? But what do you guys think? Does Steve recognize what Vanzetti posted?
Quote:
He is not a bad GM/ President. He is just incredibly mediocre with an outdated baseball philosophy.
I almost wish this team was hovering around 2nd for the illusion of "progress" - We are extremely fortunate to be in 1st and I think that, as I said, we are "choking" but may not be that good.
Our buddies in the Bronx are further out of a Wildcard and division yet have pushed the right buttons. To think that some were looking to let Cashman go.
Look, a reasonable thought would be this is only Year 1 of Cohen's ownership and I may be looking for some supporting thoughts. Sorry about the rant guys.
I said you have to live with the downside of Báez, but 5 strikeouts in a game is not it. He HAS to be better than that. That's a horrific performance. I don't believe I've ever witnessed a "platinum sombrero" before today. And ironically, it was a soft-tossing lefty starter today (type of pitcher Báez should crush).
The Mets are now at the bottom.
The reason the Mets continue to have these types of games, in my opinion, is that there are too many players on this team that begin to focus on having a good AB in a close game late.
Too many guys trying to hit 5-run homers. Pete is one of them. The bases loaded situation he had yesterday, I think it was, he begins to press. Part of it might be he's never had a Grand Slam. But he never will unless he stops being over-aggressive in those situations and getting down in the count. There's a reason this team is batting what they are with RISP. And this is a continuation of last year as well.
are outclassing Mets' batters simply by game plan. The approach of many of the Mets, particularly with runners on, is very predictable. There are veteran guys with an approach akin to a rookie playing in his first game. I see it over and over.
You see guys get back into counts because some of these guys decide to swing in 3-1 counts no matter what the pitch location is. Or they are swinging 2-0 with no pitch recognition.
The guys taking the best ABs on this team right now are McNeil, Nimmo, and...Conforto. And I say Conforto because he at least isn't trying to do too much. He's staying back. If he gets a ball to drive he drives it, but he's not over-swinging.
I should include Dom. The problem with this is...Nimmo is simply getting on base, Dom is hitting singles all the time, and Conforto is getting BABIP'ed to a degree. The only guy I really trust to deliver in an RBI situation right now is McNeil.
It's time these players try to take some stock and go back to the drawing board. Pete, Báez, Davis (looks completely lost), McCann, Villar.
Báez won the game yesterday, but he was non-competitive today. And it really comes down to taking good approaches at the plate. You have to start thinking like the pitcher. These guys are getting owned by simply pitch selection and getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.
been taking a Mets break and I've really enjoyed not watching every inning of this team. I'll just offer this
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
been taking a Mets break and I've really enjoyed not watching every inning of this team. I'll just offer this
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
I really appreciate this post. And I'm inspired to take a Mets break myself. This team has been mostly a source of frustration for me for the last 20 years, with very few bright spots. Maybe I'll stop watching until Jacob deGrom comes back, if they have a snowball's chance by then.
find BBI to be the best source of Mets discussion around. I also like twitter for that but there are obviously downsides. I'm obviously still a huge Mets fan, I'm still heavily into checking out the minors and I have been watching "most" games. I just don't feel obligated to watch as I had been feeling. I was losing some interest in THIS team leading up to the deadline and the lack of pitching added really was the nail in the coffin. I doubt I check out for the remainder of the season (I plan on going to the game on Saturday in CBB weather permitting, as my GF planned a quickie trip to Philly)
for whatever it's worth I think this season has been almost best case
scenario when factoring everything out of anyone's control in - things I consider out of anyone's control are Porter's dickpic, McNeil and Conforto's hamstring injuries, Lindor's side, Rocker's issues during his physical etc. And fyi I don't consider all the injuries purely bad luck, especially the set backs. That's my single biggest area of frustration and where I think Cohen/Alderson have a responsibility to get it fixed yesterday.
they are at their lowest moment right now so of course it's logical to be down but they have played winning baseball all year despite an avalanche of injuries, most recently to their 2 best players.
All of that said there are 2 reasons I'm optimistic YTD.
1) the minor leaguers have had best case scenario seasons for most of the top 10.
2) Today on August 5th I'd still say they are in position to win the division, possibly even the favorite to do so. The phillies are highly flawed and would be nowhere if we didn't drop the ball on Wheeler, the Braves lost Acuna, the Nats sold their best players.
The next 3 games vs. PHI can undo all the damage they did over the last week. they have to stop getting down early and they have to start getting big hits. I don't know that it will happen but I do know that it can happen and if it starts it could easily snowball. Things usually balance out in baseball and this team has some quality players on it due for some balancing.
and well thought out analysis here guys. We all seem to be on the same page and understand where the improvements are needed and the root cause of current state.
You go on to Yankee board after a loss and its all just fire the manager, fire the coaches, cut the player, sell the team and off with his head.
Really appreciate this board day in day out, win or lose.
once Syndergaard went down (pre-covid) last year that team had basically no shot to win.
once Stroman opted out it was pretty much no shot.
before that the 2019 team was a colossal waste of talent because Mickey was in over his head and BVW wasted assets on guys who ended up having negative impacts.
so this was not a turnkey situation. this was a work in progress and to win big year 1 would have taken extreme good fortune. they have had the opposite of good fortunes and are still in 1st and 1 of the big reasons why they are still in first are the areas they improved around the margins. Defense, bullpen, bench depth. Those are steps in the right direction. As is the fact that we are in first, there will be "meaningful games" in sept, and nobody is doing victory laps. the bar has been raised and things are heading in the right direction.
...feeling better about the Mets. We are benefitting from a weak NL East. I hope we are trending in the right direction. Even the biggest Mets haters are starting to acknowledge this and while no one should use that as a barometer - I think we finally have the financial support needed to run a successful franchise.
as a Giants fan, I found myself on an "apology tour" for lack of a better term for almost winning the NFC East and it has a similar feel for the Mets - or whomever wins the division. The "Yeah but" line.
a dead horse and I'm not throwing in the towel on the season but based on where the Mets were and the status of deGrom, Syndergaard, and Lindor the Mets would have been smarter to "sell off" pieces like JD Davis, Familia, any of the scrap heap guys they added who are now playing key roles like Pillar and Villar, and more. not core guys, but all the others should have been on the block.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
a dead horse and I'm not throwing in the towel on the season but based on where the Mets were and the status of deGrom, Syndergaard, and Lindor the Mets would have been smarter to "sell off" pieces like JD Davis, Familia, any of the scrap heap guys they added who are now playing key roles like Pillar and Villar, and more. not core guys, but all the others should have been on the block.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
I don't think they have to extend Baez. I think if the price is right he's a player that fits well so it's an option but not a necessity. Conforto and Stroman are in the exact same boat, I'd prefer to have them back but wouldn't overpay because there may be a better use of the money.
It's a lot easier to buy players to fill in gaps in MLB free agency than NFL so it's very different. Also this roster has a bunch of guys who are due for extensions in the next few years so they can't afford to force money if a player doesn't fit.
if he plays great at 3b and helps lead them to the playoffs he will have leverage but if the team misses the playoffs and he doesn't play well I'd guess they let him walk. Remember a lot can change - when the Mets dealt for Cespedes his contract had that weird quirk where he couldn't be resigned. But the way things went on the field obviously changed that (much to everyone's excitement). And then as things ended up due to the injuries it would have been better if he just walked.
is if they don't extend Baez they traded PCA - their best OF prospect and a top 5 system prospect for 2 months of Baez in a dead-end season (if they miss the playoffs).
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
If the Mets fall short, I’m wondering if the Sandy/Zack Scott combo remains. As DMM eloquently posted - these guys are all doing jobs either they didn’t want or were not prepared for.
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
is if they don't extend Baez they traded PCA - their best OF prospect and a top 5 system prospect for 2 months of Baez in a dead-end season (if they miss the playoffs).
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
PCA was not 1 of the 5 best prospects in the system at the time he was traded. Alvarez, Mauricio, Baty are clearly and unanimously viewed ahead of him. Allan had been unanimously ahead of him pre-injury, since they each got injured for the season at almost the exact same time I don't see how PCA would be viewed ahead now (unless we could compare their medicals which only the Mets know). Preseason (and pre-PCA injury) Logenhagen actually had Vientos graded at a 50 and ahead of PCA too so after the season he has had I'd imagine that's still the case though there were plenty of preseason lists that had them ranked differently. I can't imagine the post-season lists will though. I'm not a prospect grader but in a binary world there's no way I'd trade Vientos over PCA right now. He is close to if not in the cluster with the top 3 guys in the system for me. Scherzer willing to extend is the only player I'd have even been tempted to consider dealing any of those 4 for.
So imo PCA was clearly 6th at best and I could see an argument of PCA vs. Ginn going either way. FG has both graded as 45's, they both got similar signing bonus $ so the Mets felt they were similar quality players. If I had to decide between the 2 it would almost definitely just be based on whatever the dr prognosis is for either. And I might also rank 1 or both behind Ramirez. They gave him the 3rd highest intl signing bonus in team history behind just Alvarez/Mauricio and at 18 years old he's playing at the same level PCA would have gone to when he next steps on the field at age 20. So imo PCA slotted in 6th-8th in the system at the time of his trade. The injury also adds a risk factor to him that didn't exist previously that's hard to quantify. By defacto it allowed other players to be harder to give up than him because they have comparable pedigrees and they are on the field performing. Preseason I'd have had him ahead of Baty/Vientos/Ginn but they've each performed very well and he had a major surgery.
So while I didn't want to or enjoy giving up PCA I'd have had a hard time giving up any of those 8 and quite frankly would have probably been more disappointed to give up any of the healthy ones. It may just be out of sight out of mind but the injury factor makes it more palatable than dealing any of those other high pedigree guys who are on the field performing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
If the Mets fall short, I’m wondering if the Sandy/Zack Scott combo remains. As DMM eloquently posted - these guys are all doing jobs either they didn’t want or were not prepared for.
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
if the team falls short I think you see them take another run at hiring a high profile president of baseball ops and possibly replacing Rojas. Scott I'm sure they would want to stay but it would depend on how he clicks with whoever the Pres is. Starting over from scratch would be counter productive in a lot of ways and Sandy doesn't have a reputation for his ego getting in the way. If they can find a highly competent FO exec to come in and run things they will hire that guy and that person's vision of the team will steer the ship going forward. Porter's dickpic set them back but they smartly didn't panic and elevate Scott permanently.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
To me it's not a different argument as I think I have articulated fairly clearly.
I would have been ok with buys that included fringe prospects only.
PCA for reasons I outlined, was too high a price, regardless where you rank him as a prospect for a player like Baez in his current contract state.
You latched on to the "he's not a top 5 prospect" portion of my post, and my response is still that point is semantics.
The Mets don't have a deep system especially thin at OF and SP. So, PCA whether he's top 5 or 8, is not a guy you give up for a middle infielder when that's your organizational strength - or an infielder of any type to be honest.
I don't see how anyone can defend the trade then or now.
and not re-signing Baez compounds how bad a trade it was IMO.
here's a pretty simple defense of the trade - which team in the division is better than them even without JDG?
Philly sweeping the shell of what used to be the Nats doesn't fix a bullpen that has been bottom of baseball all year and had to move it's closer into the starting rotation. Or a defense that's bottom of the league in most categories and top 10 in errors. Are Wheeler/Nola so much better than Carrasco/Stroman? Is Kyle Gibson their ace in the hole? I'm not saying they can't possibly get it together and go on a run, anything can happen, but is that really a roster worth laying down to?
If the Mets win the series this weekend they are back in the drivers seat - and that's without JDG or Lindor or Thor. Any 1 of those guys coming back is a big impact. Any 2 of them is a massive impact. And if all 3 of them happen to return - which is a possibility - they are suddenly back to being a team with a real chance to go deep. If just JDG came back healthy and they missed the playoffs by a few games over a mediocre philly team because they sold off at the deadline, wouldn't wasting a potential playoff run with JDG be a huge risk not worth taking? Selling anyone capable of bringing back a good return (like say Diaz) would have been a major risk not worth taking.
I was a big fan of the PCA pick. a bigger fan of that pick than Baty actually. But he does not project as some irreplaceable MVP level player. He projects as an excellent defensive CF with a solid hit tool so maybe a top of the order hitter. But even in a best case scenario I'm not sure he projects to be better than Nimmo, who they have under contract next year and they can easily resign if they want to. Or if over the next few offseasons they choose to sign the next George Springer. PCA is going to be in A ball at age 20 next year off a major surgery. I'm confident there will be viable alternatives found for CF by the time he is in position to contribute at the MLB level 2, 3, 4 seasons down the road. And they didn't just trade him for anyone - they traded him for a excellent defensive player with more run production than anyone on the team this year and enough positional flexibility to carve out a multi-year role. His ceiling is as high as coming in 2nd in MVP voting and we know that because it happened in 2018. Very few prospects realistically have that kind of upside - PCA likely included.
Javy Baez was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball so if you want to think of think of it that way the mets got the better prospect in the deal. And the healthier one. And the more proven one. He's just more expensive but we can let $teve worry about that.
Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
and that's to say nothing of the slide or the relay throw
that eliminated a run at home in those wins also. seriously if you can't see that Baez has had a positive impact in his 1 week here that says a lot more about you than it does how he's played so far.
RE: RE: Amazingly, in a sea of bad hitters this year
Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
I could do without the snark. We are all allowed opinions and nobody was disrespectful to you.
But yeah… thanks for pointing out what a player did over a 1-2 game same. Super helpful! I also saw him strike out 5 times yesterday swinging at anything and everything? Remember that game or is less than 24 hours too hard for you?
Now that's confirmation bias if I've ever seen it.
here's the DRS leaderboard sorted by the worst performers this year on the whole roster. Notice the commonality in terms of which position has been far and away the biggest negative? Whether Baez solves 3B by playing there or indirectly by McNeil solving it, that's a big need both right now and for the medium/long term depending on how Vientos or Baty develop defensively. Imagine the luxury of having 2 gold glove short stops, 1 of whom can play multiple positions.
RE: Now that's confirmation bias if I've ever seen it.
Baez has been one of the few offensive players with a pulse the week he's been here.
Confirmation bias? He has a wRC+ 102 for his career. He’s at 101 today. Doesn’t get more “league average” than that. I’m glad he helped us in two games and I expect he will help us in more, but let’s please stop acting like this guy is some polished hitter. He’ll be equally infuriating at times.
Af SS or 2B and both those spots are taken for the foreseeable future. In order to warrant Baez playing at 3B, he has to hit more. League average ain’t gonna cut it there long term.
Jazz Chisholm – SS
Isan Diaz – 2B
Jesus Aguilar – 1B
Lewis Brinson – CF
Brian Anderson – 3B
Jorge Alfaro – LF
Bryan De La Cruz – RF
Alex Jackson – C
Zach Thompson – RHP
Not that I want it but I could see Mets FO going there since he was not Sandy/Scott's pick and a scapegoat will be needed.
Not that I want it but I could see Mets FO going there since he was not Sandy/Scott's pick and a scapegoat will be needed.
Sure but it wont happen in season. Offseason.
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I think Rojas is on the path to the hot seat.
Not that I want it but I could see Mets FO going there since he was not Sandy/Scott's pick and a scapegoat will be needed.
Sure but it wont happen in season. Offseason.
agreed
CF Nimmo
SS Lindor
1B Alonso
LF Smith
2B Baez
3B McNeil
RF Conforto
C Nido/Mccann
P
(move them around as you please)
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
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The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
He can certainly give each player a rest day a week, along with D Smith (with Mcneil).
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In comment 15322714 Elijah Pitts said:
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The Mets need guys who work the count and get on base. Guillorme has an OBP over 400 this year and last, and he is walking more than he strikes out. He doesn’t hit for power, but getting on base is still an essential skill. Plus his defense is usually excellent.
Who are you benching for Guillorme (currently on IL)?
You can't. You're not benching McNeil, Báez, or Lindor.
He can certainly give each player a rest day a week, along with D Smith (with Mcneil).
No. Not me, only if they "need" it. In a pennant race. All important games the rest of the way and I need to play my big bats every day. Keep in mind Báex and Lindor are also GG'ers. You're keeping that group together. This is overthinking it.
You just can't take one out of those 3 or 4 bats out of the lineup 3-4 times a week for Guillorme. And I like Luis.
They can, at this point it's a function of lengthening him put and not having him pitch the third time through the order, particularly with the top of the order coming up with RISP. If he gets a double play out of the Panik AB, I think he gets the 6th.
But remember, Carrasco only went three innings in his rehab starts, I think 4 IP in his first start for the Mets, so they are still stretching him out.
Come on bats. Please wake up.
and trade who?
Chilli Davis was a scapegoat. should have kept him
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Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
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In comment 15322813 Cyrus the Great said:
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Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
Look at what Phils traded for Gibson
Hill is mostly a 5 IP.
But mostly it's not about CAN a pitcher go deeper in games, but how managers are using analytics that say it's better to bring in the bullpen for the third time through the order.
It's the way games are being managed, not actual physical limitations on guys
In Megill's case, he runs up his pitch count a lot, so he's probably more of a 5 IP right now until he can get more efficient.
honestly coop, I think pitchers just figured our guys out and this current crop of players (except Alonso-McNeil) aren't good enough to make adjustments on their own and still be as good.
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In comment 15322817 Rory said:
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In comment 15322813 Cyrus the Great said:
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Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
Look at what Phils traded for Gibson
I don't mind them giving up PCA, prospects are essentially just lottery tickets. My main issue with the Baez trade is that I feel it will only marginally benefit the Mets once Lindor comes back. He is a big name but if you objectivley look at his offensive metrics, he is worse in most categories than Davis and McNeil. Dude homered as I was typing this lol. His glove at second will be what benefits them most when Lindor returns. I know a pitcher would have cost a lot, but in my opinion not adding a pitcher nearly equates to surrendering any chance of winning this year.
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But the offense was horrible then and has continued to be horrible. I don’t know much about who took Chili’s place but it’s apparent that they didn’t change a single thing. Which is disappointing. If you are going to fire someone then you sure as hell better change something. I’m not into firing someone for nothing.
honestly coop, I think pitchers just figured our guys out and this current crop of players (except Alonso-McNeil) aren't good enough to make adjustments on their own and still be as good.
Totally agree, but that’s what we have coaches for. And when you have an entire lineup underperforming, that’s on them too. And it’s been the entire season.
I know that people don’t put much stock in managers/coaches making any impact on wins and losses…I wholeheartedly disagree. They play a massive role in the success of a team. Maybe it’s an approach thing. Who knows.
BUT - we know that things can turn on a dime in sports. Hopefully that happens here. Maybe Baez is just what they need - a brash player that can be a jolt of lightning for them.
there were arguably only 2 SP traded appreciably better than what they have. Scherzer refused to come here and Berrios would have cost a ton (what was the rumor Dom + Mauricio?). They inquired on both and rightfully passed on Berrios at that price.
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In comment 15322830 Cyrus the Great said:
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In comment 15322817 Rory said:
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In comment 15322813 Cyrus the Great said:
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Simply is not capable of carrying this team to the postseason. They basically have three guys who can go past five innings, one of whom is out till september. It feels like until relativly recently they did a couple bullpen games a week. The bullpen will crumble under that workload. The lineup underperforming only cements their status as a mediocre at best team. Ive hated the Baez trade since the second it was announced, it was a boneheaded move not to add a decent starting pitcher who can at least eat some innings.
and trade who?
Someone like Michael Pineda could have been a good pickup. I can't imagine Pineda would fetch that much of a pricetag. Perhaps Arrietta could have been traded for as well, idk what Chicago would have took for him. You are correct that the SP market was shit but it did not make sense not to add anyone(except this Williams guy who is in AAA). They need an innings eater, not an ace. Now they dont have either.
no who do the Mets trade?
bc if you didn't like PCA for Baez I don't think you'd be fond of seeing what it would have taken to get Pineda either.
Look at what Phils traded for Gibson
I don't mind them giving up PCA, prospects are essentially just lottery tickets. My main issue with the Baez trade is that I feel it will only marginally benefit the Mets once Lindor comes back. He is a big name but if you objectivley look at his offensive metrics, he is worse in most categories than Davis and McNeil. Dude homered as I was typing this lol. His glove at second will be what benefits them most when Lindor returns. I know a pitcher would have cost a lot, but in my opinion not adding a pitcher nearly equates to surrendering any chance of winning this year.
There's talk Baez will go to 3B once Lindor returns. Mcneil's best position is 2B and they don't want to move him.
To me, Báez, even though he has his dowside (OBP/K-rate), is EXACTLY what this team needs. Remember he has a ring, as well. A guy who's been where the Mets want to go. And he brings an attitude that frankly I think this team needs. A little edge has been missing. We all know what they say about nice guys.
I hope they extend him.
To me, Báez, even though he has his dowside (OBP/K-rate), is EXACTLY what this team needs. Remember he has a ring, as well. A guy who's been where the Mets want to go. And he brings an attitude that frankly I think this team needs. A little edge has been missing. We all know what they say about nice guys.
I hope they extend him.
Agreed. imo he impacts the game in a lot more ways than Bryant would have. So while we were all resigned to the possibility of some kind of less than PCA package for Bryant as a pure rental (JDD, Ginn, Palmer, Vientos), Baez delivers a lot more impact for the higher cost of acquisition. And his flexibility makes him a candidate to extend.
And when Lindor comes back they better figure out some sort of a rotation. Play McNeil at 2B, RF, and LF. Play Baez at 3B and 2B. Rotate Dom and Conforto in and out. And keep JD's bat in the lineup as often as possible.
Man could we use him right now...
McCann has about an .850 OPS vs lefties this year, Nido about .650.
Now it's a 2-run game. Could've easily had a 4 run lead or more here.
Man could we use him right now...
Conforto has quietly been getting some good ABs lately. Nice to see him get a couple of hits out of it tonight, but he's really taking good swings right now.
If you just stick him at second , you lose what makes him so special.
McCann has about an .850 OPS vs lefties this year, Nido about .650.
Now it's a 2-run game. Could've easily had a 4 run lead or more here.
Nido had a good AB. Swung at strikes, worked the count. He just got beat with a fastball .
his average exit velocity is exactly the same as it was last year and his hard hit rate is up.
His xwoba this year is .349 and was .374 last year. That's not a very big difference.
his K rate is down 2%.
walk rate is up 3%.
so what's making this season so terrible compared to last year?
last year his BABIP was .412 (ridiculously high, highest in MLB last year and next closest was .396).
this year his BABIP is .242 coming into tonights game (would be 8th lowest in MLB among qualifiers).
when the hits were falling in last year he hit .322.
with hits not falling in this year he is hitting .197.
and again on the exact same average exit velocity and a higher hard hit %. Sometimes the defense is right where they need to be. But generally in baseball things even out close to the norms.
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Could've pinch hit for Nido with McCann with a lefty in the game and runners on.
McCann has about an .850 OPS vs lefties this year, Nido about .650.
Now it's a 2-run game. Could've easily had a 4 run lead or more here.
Nido had a good AB. Swung at strikes, worked the count. He just got beat with a fastball .
No bro. He swung at balls way out of the strikezone.
Anyway, it was a poor decision regardless of how good an AB he had. Ultimately Nido didn't produce when you have a legit hitter against lefties on your bench.
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Conforto.
Man could we use him right now...
Conforto has quietly been getting some good ABs lately. Nice to see him get a couple of hits out of it tonight, but he's really taking good swings right now.
Hit the ball hard into bad luck a couple times tonight too...good signs, but he's had these good signs games before this year. He needs to string together a week before we can exhale...
his average exit velocity is exactly the same as it was last year and his hard hit rate is up.
His xwoba this year is .349 and was .374 last year. That's not a very big difference.
his K rate is down 2%.
walk rate is up 3%.
so what's making this season so terrible compared to last year?
last year his BABIP was .412 (ridiculously high, highest in MLB last year and next closest was .396).
this year his BABIP is .242 coming into tonights game (would be 8th lowest in MLB among qualifiers).
when the hits were falling in last year he hit .322.
with hits not falling in this year he is hitting .197.
and again on the exact same average exit velocity and a higher hard hit %. Sometimes the defense is right where they need to be. But generally in baseball things even out close to the norms.
Great info. Great post. Thanks.
So he got off to a bad, then got injured and he just has not been able to put it all together.
So he got off to a bad, then got injured and he just has not been able to put it all together.
Yeah it's kind of interesting...
In an era where guys are evaluated by statistics, it seems we are paying a guy $300M for being a solid, not spectacular player but I guess an excellent leader....had to rattle a guy a bit who has been the mainstay and key linkage to the Wright-led Mets and probably always thought he'd follow in those footsteps...
Last year he had 9 in 54 games so in a very good year he was only pacing between 20-25. He has never been Alonso. He hit 30 once. This year he's obviously below the 25 but if he stays healthy the rest of the way he will probably hit 12-15 even with the missed time. He almost had a couple in the last few days. This year he just hasn't yet had anything resembling a hot streak. Bad year combined with bad luck.
I know the 'illars have had a bunch of big hits and big plays all year but man does that 2 year investment in Hernandez look a lot better now as those 2 are seemingly running low on gas. Hernandez is just a different class of player for only an incremental amount more. And he was right there for the taking.
The guy has been so solid for so long that I really think the pressure is getting to him.
Carrasco and Stroman are solid starters who would slot into just about any playoff rotation. Just need JDG to get back to pitch ahead of them and this is a really dangerous team. Get those three and you can live with the 4th starter whoever that ends up being between Walker/Megill/Hill/Thor although obviously a healthy Thor would be a huge upgrade.
both of those guys are playing through leg injuries and not running full speed. it cost them an xbh to CF a couple days ago.
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Trash lineup today benching Nimmo and McNeil. Starting Almora who should never get a PA ever again. This team feels no urgency.
both of those guys are playing through leg injuries and not running full speed. it cost them an xbh to CF a couple days ago.
And they're still getting on base/hitting better than anyone else. It's not the best time to give guys a break right now.
They all count, lol. I would never turn away a hit in an MLB game.
DP ball next?
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
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base hit. Way to go.
They all count, lol. I would never turn away a hit in an MLB game.
I didn't post that sarcastically.
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In comment 15323266 GF1080 said:
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Trash lineup today benching Nimmo and McNeil. Starting Almora who should never get a PA ever again. This team feels no urgency.
both of those guys are playing through leg injuries and not running full speed. it cost them an xbh to CF a couple days ago.
And they're still getting on base/hitting better than anyone else. It's not the best time to give guys a break right now.
and if you push it and they suffer a tear and are OFS, then how does your brilliant suggestion look?
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
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In comment 15323325 Mike in NY said:
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
No...JD K, Baez K, Conforto F8
But Villar just got a 2 out, 2 strike signle to score Almora to tie the game in the 6th
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In comment 15323329 allstarjim said:
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In comment 15323325 Mike in NY said:
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Davis strikes out
DP ball next?
Typical Mets.
wait did that happen? I'm unable to watch
No...JD K, Baez K, Conforto F8
But Villar just got a 2 out, 2 strike signle to score Almora to tie the game in the 6th
Almora is surprisingly 3 for 3. I hope this does not give Rojas any false ideas about him.
This team looks exactly like the Wilpon
Era Alderson teams.
This team looks exactly like the Wilpon
Era Alderson teams.
100% agree. Thought so for a while too and was not excited when they announced they were bringing him back.
Look, I know that technically it isn't over but what a boring team. In a matter of one week the feeling and outlook of this team has changed. Baez injected some life after a disappointing trading deadline, the Kumar Rocker mess.
When Cohen officially purchased the team, I didn't expect a snap of the finger change - his purchase energized the fanbase but now this "choke" is under his ownership. Where do we go from here? This team is bereft of talent. Playes like Villar were great in the early part of the season but seem to have hit a wall.
I haven't seen DanMetroMan on these boards lately? But what do you guys think? Does Steve recognize what Vanzetti posted?
He is not a bad GM/ President. He is just incredibly mediocre with an outdated baseball philosophy.
I almost wish this team was hovering around 2nd for the illusion of "progress" - We are extremely fortunate to be in 1st and I think that, as I said, we are "choking" but may not be that good.
Our buddies in the Bronx are further out of a Wildcard and division yet have pushed the right buttons. To think that some were looking to let Cashman go.
Look, a reasonable thought would be this is only Year 1 of Cohen's ownership and I may be looking for some supporting thoughts. Sorry about the rant guys.
The Mets are now at the bottom.
The reason the Mets continue to have these types of games, in my opinion, is that there are too many players on this team that begin to focus on having a good AB in a close game late.
Too many guys trying to hit 5-run homers. Pete is one of them. The bases loaded situation he had yesterday, I think it was, he begins to press. Part of it might be he's never had a Grand Slam. But he never will unless he stops being over-aggressive in those situations and getting down in the count. There's a reason this team is batting what they are with RISP. And this is a continuation of last year as well.
You see guys get back into counts because some of these guys decide to swing in 3-1 counts no matter what the pitch location is. Or they are swinging 2-0 with no pitch recognition.
The guys taking the best ABs on this team right now are McNeil, Nimmo, and...Conforto. And I say Conforto because he at least isn't trying to do too much. He's staying back. If he gets a ball to drive he drives it, but he's not over-swinging.
I should include Dom. The problem with this is...Nimmo is simply getting on base, Dom is hitting singles all the time, and Conforto is getting BABIP'ed to a degree. The only guy I really trust to deliver in an RBI situation right now is McNeil.
It's time these players try to take some stock and go back to the drawing board. Pete, Báez, Davis (looks completely lost), McCann, Villar.
Báez won the game yesterday, but he was non-competitive today. And it really comes down to taking good approaches at the plate. You have to start thinking like the pitcher. These guys are getting owned by simply pitch selection and getting themselves out by swinging at bad pitches.
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
Sandy Alderson was brought in (in large part) to ensure Steve Cohen was approved by the other owners. Sandy was going to be eased into something of a supervisory role, quite frankly mostly a figurehead, consultant day-to-day role while still being the "face" of the franchise.
They struck out hiring a president of baseball operations (in large part due to timing but surely in some part due to some not wanting to consider potentially having Sandy being the final say on baseball operations as he had been with the Mets previously. Chernoff's wife didn't want to move etc.
Porter being a creep also set them back immensely. Say what you want about the guy but his eye for talent, his energy to do the job, his connections were top of the line. He was gone and yet another person was forced into a role they weren't expected to perform (Scott).
So the Mets season has come down to
1. Injuries (huge)
2. Underperformance of guys that seemed like locks to be at minimum their "norms" (see Conforto)
3. A president/GM stuck between wanting to go for it and scared to do so. Instead of having a president of baseball operations, a guy ready for the daily grind, the e-mails, the calls, the obsessive stuff, they have Sandy (who openly didn't want that role) and Scott who may or may not be suited for the role but was forced into it.
There are of course other factors... thin farm system thanks to the previous regime etc etc. But (now this is just me personally) I haven't enjoyed watching this team for the majority of the season and not watching them 100% of the time has allowed me to watch things I've been meaning to, read things I've been meaning to and enjoy my summer more.
I really appreciate this post. And I'm inspired to take a Mets break myself. This team has been mostly a source of frustration for me for the last 20 years, with very few bright spots. Maybe I'll stop watching until Jacob deGrom comes back, if they have a snowball's chance by then.
they are at their lowest moment right now so of course it's logical to be down but they have played winning baseball all year despite an avalanche of injuries, most recently to their 2 best players.
All of that said there are 2 reasons I'm optimistic YTD.
1) the minor leaguers have had best case scenario seasons for most of the top 10.
2) Today on August 5th I'd still say they are in position to win the division, possibly even the favorite to do so. The phillies are highly flawed and would be nowhere if we didn't drop the ball on Wheeler, the Braves lost Acuna, the Nats sold their best players.
The next 3 games vs. PHI can undo all the damage they did over the last week. they have to stop getting down early and they have to start getting big hits. I don't know that it will happen but I do know that it can happen and if it starts it could easily snowball. Things usually balance out in baseball and this team has some quality players on it due for some balancing.
You go on to Yankee board after a loss and its all just fire the manager, fire the coaches, cut the player, sell the team and off with his head.
Really appreciate this board day in day out, win or lose.
once Stroman opted out it was pretty much no shot.
before that the 2019 team was a colossal waste of talent because Mickey was in over his head and BVW wasted assets on guys who ended up having negative impacts.
so this was not a turnkey situation. this was a work in progress and to win big year 1 would have taken extreme good fortune. they have had the opposite of good fortunes and are still in 1st and 1 of the big reasons why they are still in first are the areas they improved around the margins. Defense, bullpen, bench depth. Those are steps in the right direction. As is the fact that we are in first, there will be "meaningful games" in sept, and nobody is doing victory laps. the bar has been raised and things are heading in the right direction.
think we see Stroman and MC on other teams next year.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
Not sure how much value those players have individually, but try and get back players who are lottery ticket-like and can help replenish the farm.
instead the Mets traded their top OF prospect for a SS who will be a UFA after the season and will want star money to stay.
the Mets are now in the unenviable Dave Gettleman position of HAVING to extend a mid-season trade acquisition who was an impending free agent or making the trade look even worse than it was. Player has all the leverage.
I don't think they have to extend Baez. I think if the price is right he's a player that fits well so it's an option but not a necessity. Conforto and Stroman are in the exact same boat, I'd prefer to have them back but wouldn't overpay because there may be a better use of the money.
It's a lot easier to buy players to fill in gaps in MLB free agency than NFL so it's very different. Also this roster has a bunch of guys who are due for extensions in the next few years so they can't afford to force money if a player doesn't fit.
if he plays great at 3b and helps lead them to the playoffs he will have leverage but if the team misses the playoffs and he doesn't play well I'd guess they let him walk. Remember a lot can change - when the Mets dealt for Cespedes his contract had that weird quirk where he couldn't be resigned. But the way things went on the field obviously changed that (much to everyone's excitement). And then as things ended up due to the injuries it would have been better if he just walked.
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
Which was my point.
Sandy/Scott will feel pressure to re-sign Baez to justify giving up PCA.
Unless they make the playoffs and do some damage how else do you justify that rental price (knowing deGrom was a question and Lindor was already out long term)
PCA was not 1 of the 5 best prospects in the system at the time he was traded. Alvarez, Mauricio, Baty are clearly and unanimously viewed ahead of him. Allan had been unanimously ahead of him pre-injury, since they each got injured for the season at almost the exact same time I don't see how PCA would be viewed ahead now (unless we could compare their medicals which only the Mets know). Preseason (and pre-PCA injury) Logenhagen actually had Vientos graded at a 50 and ahead of PCA too so after the season he has had I'd imagine that's still the case though there were plenty of preseason lists that had them ranked differently. I can't imagine the post-season lists will though. I'm not a prospect grader but in a binary world there's no way I'd trade Vientos over PCA right now. He is close to if not in the cluster with the top 3 guys in the system for me. Scherzer willing to extend is the only player I'd have even been tempted to consider dealing any of those 4 for.
So imo PCA was clearly 6th at best and I could see an argument of PCA vs. Ginn going either way. FG has both graded as 45's, they both got similar signing bonus $ so the Mets felt they were similar quality players. If I had to decide between the 2 it would almost definitely just be based on whatever the dr prognosis is for either. And I might also rank 1 or both behind Ramirez. They gave him the 3rd highest intl signing bonus in team history behind just Alvarez/Mauricio and at 18 years old he's playing at the same level PCA would have gone to when he next steps on the field at age 20. So imo PCA slotted in 6th-8th in the system at the time of his trade. The injury also adds a risk factor to him that didn't exist previously that's hard to quantify. By defacto it allowed other players to be harder to give up than him because they have comparable pedigrees and they are on the field performing. Preseason I'd have had him ahead of Baty/Vientos/Ginn but they've each performed very well and he had a major surgery.
So while I didn't want to or enjoy giving up PCA I'd have had a hard time giving up any of those 8 and quite frankly would have probably been more disappointed to give up any of the healthy ones. It may just be out of sight out of mind but the injury factor makes it more palatable than dealing any of those other high pedigree guys who are on the field performing.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/ - ( New Window )
I know this has a little chance but would Theo Epstein be interested?
if the team falls short I think you see them take another run at hiring a high profile president of baseball ops and possibly replacing Rojas. Scott I'm sure they would want to stay but it would depend on how he clicks with whoever the Pres is. Starting over from scratch would be counter productive in a lot of ways and Sandy doesn't have a reputation for his ego getting in the way. If they can find a highly competent FO exec to come in and run things they will hire that guy and that person's vision of the team will steer the ship going forward. Porter's dickpic set them back but they smartly didn't panic and elevate Scott permanently.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
I would have had a hard time parting with PCA for a good player with control, but for a two month rental, it’s borderline comical.
And before PCA’s surgery on his non-throwing arm’s shoulder, he very likely would have been a top 100 prospect and in our top 5.
If PCA returns to health the deal is indefensible imo unless we win a WS this year.
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I won't haggle over 5th, 6th, 8th prospect.
the point still remains the Mets should not have been buyers with the lack of clarity on deGrom, Lindor being out as long as he will, and Walker regressing (among other factors) other than fringy buys with the type of players traded for Rich Hill.
whether or not they should have been buyers is a different argument entirely. as is the fact that they have more injury clarity than we do re: JDG and Lindor (who seems on track for a return soon). And Thor for that matter.
To me it's not a different argument as I think I have articulated fairly clearly.
I would have been ok with buys that included fringe prospects only.
PCA for reasons I outlined, was too high a price, regardless where you rank him as a prospect for a player like Baez in his current contract state.
You latched on to the "he's not a top 5 prospect" portion of my post, and my response is still that point is semantics.
The Mets don't have a deep system especially thin at OF and SP. So, PCA whether he's top 5 or 8, is not a guy you give up for a middle infielder when that's your organizational strength - or an infielder of any type to be honest.
I don't see how anyone can defend the trade then or now.
and not re-signing Baez compounds how bad a trade it was IMO.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
Philly sweeping the shell of what used to be the Nats doesn't fix a bullpen that has been bottom of baseball all year and had to move it's closer into the starting rotation. Or a defense that's bottom of the league in most categories and top 10 in errors. Are Wheeler/Nola so much better than Carrasco/Stroman? Is Kyle Gibson their ace in the hole? I'm not saying they can't possibly get it together and go on a run, anything can happen, but is that really a roster worth laying down to?
If the Mets win the series this weekend they are back in the drivers seat - and that's without JDG or Lindor or Thor. Any 1 of those guys coming back is a big impact. Any 2 of them is a massive impact. And if all 3 of them happen to return - which is a possibility - they are suddenly back to being a team with a real chance to go deep. If just JDG came back healthy and they missed the playoffs by a few games over a mediocre philly team because they sold off at the deadline, wouldn't wasting a potential playoff run with JDG be a huge risk not worth taking? Selling anyone capable of bringing back a good return (like say Diaz) would have been a major risk not worth taking.
I was a big fan of the PCA pick. a bigger fan of that pick than Baty actually. But he does not project as some irreplaceable MVP level player. He projects as an excellent defensive CF with a solid hit tool so maybe a top of the order hitter. But even in a best case scenario I'm not sure he projects to be better than Nimmo, who they have under contract next year and they can easily resign if they want to. Or if over the next few offseasons they choose to sign the next George Springer. PCA is going to be in A ball at age 20 next year off a major surgery. I'm confident there will be viable alternatives found for CF by the time he is in position to contribute at the MLB level 2, 3, 4 seasons down the road. And they didn't just trade him for anyone - they traded him for a excellent defensive player with more run production than anyone on the team this year and enough positional flexibility to carve out a multi-year role. His ceiling is as high as coming in 2nd in MVP voting and we know that because it happened in 2018. Very few prospects realistically have that kind of upside - PCA likely included.
Javy Baez was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball so if you want to think of think of it that way the mets got the better prospect in the deal. And the healthier one. And the more proven one. He's just more expensive but we can let $teve worry about that.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
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Baez also immediately became one of our worst hitters after the addition.
With all the trade options available, that was hard to do.
did you not watch the 2 games they've actually won in the past week? You know, the one where Baez hit a 2 run homer in the 6th inning to get them within a run or the other one where he hit a go ahead homer in the 8th inning? I know it was a whole 36 hours ago so may be hard to remember.
I could do without the snark. We are all allowed opinions and nobody was disrespectful to you.
But yeah… thanks for pointing out what a player did over a 1-2 game same. Super helpful! I also saw him strike out 5 times yesterday swinging at anything and everything? Remember that game or is less than 24 hours too hard for you?
Confirmation bias? He has a wRC+ 102 for his career. He’s at 101 today. Doesn’t get more “league average” than that. I’m glad he helped us in two games and I expect he will help us in more, but let’s please stop acting like this guy is some polished hitter. He’ll be equally infuriating at times.
Obviously, right over your head and you didn’t see the hypocrisy and irony in pointing to his 1-2 positive game sample as something of substance….
I’m well aware an 0-5, 5 k game means nothing as well….
I’d personally let him walk.