but I still can't help but wonder how they heck he holds up for 6 more years with his current style, and if he scales it back how effective he'd be. There's a lot of risk here IMO.
but I still can't help but wonder how they heck he holds up for 6 more years with his current style, and if he scales it back how effective he'd be. There's a lot of risk here IMO.
but I still can't help but wonder how they heck he holds up for 6 more years with his current style, and if he scales it back how effective he'd be. There's a lot of risk here IMO.
In terms of how scrambling or running?
I guess both. He takes a beating but it allows him to pass better. Its essentially how I'd like to use Jones but jury is out on A. whether we will use him that way enough and B. Can he make it through the season.
example of a player having an excellent 3rd season (even after a couple tougher years) and the faith put in him by the team. Probably will see something similar with Mayfield, but for a little less money
who's been better than Allen but even more risky. Kinda shocked he hasn't threatened a holdout, I don't think id step foot on a field until i had a new deal if I was him.
who's been better than Allen but even more risky. Kinda shocked he hasn't threatened a holdout, I don't think id step foot on a field until i had a new deal if I was him.
I thought I had read that Jackson was negotiating his own deal with the Ravens.
who's been better than Allen but even more risky. Kinda shocked he hasn't threatened a holdout, I don't think id step foot on a field until i had a new deal if I was him.
I thought I had read that Jackson was negotiating his own deal with the Ravens.
I'm sure he's in the process of it but I haven't seen anything official. I'm guessing he won't play without a new deal.
Just a tremendous physical talent. Not quite John Elway, but similar physical characteristics.
But I'm not completely sold on his accuracy and consistency since he only did it last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he has an up and down career like Matthew Stafford.
and I had to pick between Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen based on what we've seen over the first 3 seasons I'm taking Allen 100 out of 100 times.
Jackson is gimmicky. Allen is a moose who can run, make any throw, is physically imposing and seems to have all the intangible qualities you'd want as well.
When looking for a franchise QB the basic question that needs to be asked is "can this guy win me a playoff game on the road if all hell breaks loose around him?" If you can answer yes you have a franchise QB.
I don't think the Bills view it that way at all. They probably would view it the same way as the Giants would if DJ killed it this year. Consistent growth and a massive jump when they added some talent around him.
Really the only risk is if he starts to become injury prone with his style. I question the length of the extension part, is it 6 years ontop of the option or 6 on top of the 4 year contract. Either way, that is the riskiest part of the contract, but it does come with upside. If he holds up, he's going to look like a bargain on that backend.
Let's revisit these guys when they are in years 5 and beyond. Allen is going to blow him out the water. Jackson hasn't really shown too much progress as a passer and he relies on his athleticism to make the passing part easier for him. That usually isn't sustainable. He's going to have to RW his game and he hasn't proved anything close to what RW has from the pocket by the time they were at the same experience.
Ravens would be smart to option him and then franchise tag him twice. Unless of course he makes a massive step as a pure passer this year.
They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
I don't think the Bills view it that way at all. They probably would view it the same way as the Giants would if DJ killed it this year. Consistent growth and a massive jump when they added some talent around him.
Really the only risk is if he starts to become injury prone with his style. I question the length of the extension part, is it 6 years ontop of the option or 6 on top of the 4 year contract. Either way, that is the riskiest part of the contract, but it does come with upside. If he holds up, he's going to look like a bargain on that backend.
You could be right on several counts
Good for him. That's wealth for multiple generations.
They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
We all know the stats. Its like you aren't reading the concerns. And its fine if you don't agree with the concerns but you don't really address them either.
He's had 3 really good years, but when will that stop? Its reasonable to assume that it will be a lot earlier than most of the other top QB's.
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
The Ravens have the best Head Coach in the NFL after BB. They were not a bad team. 2 years prior to drafting Jackson they were 8-8 and 9-7 in a division that is always tough and in 2017 they missed the playoffs in week 17 on a last second touchdown. Let's not pretend Lamar Jackson has built the Ravens success from the ground up. He went to a peach of a situation and good for him! He's taken advantage of all the resources they've provided and how they remodeled their entire offense to benefit him. Let's not pretend he's something he's not.
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
and has all-world talent. But he owes a chunk of that contract to Brian Daboll, his OC. Super smart guy who completely overhauled that offense last season. When he inevitably becomes a head coach, that's going to be a really important hire to maintain continuity.
If we're hoping for a similar leap from our QB in year three, I just don't have a ton of confidence that Garrett is going to do much to help him with that. Hope he proves me wrong.
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
I just want to get this right. You keep saying that the smart thing for the Ravens to do is trade Jackson. Then you said Jackson is better than Allen. Then you said Allen is worth the money. Then how can you come to the conclusion that Baltimore should trade Jackson and not sign him long term?
and has all-world talent. But he owes a chunk of that contract to Brian Daboll, his OC. Super smart guy who completely overhauled that offense last season. When he inevitably becomes a head coach, that's going to be a really important hire to maintain continuity.
If we're hoping for a similar leap from our QB in year three, I just don't have a ton of confidence that Garrett is going to do much to help him with that. Hope he proves me wrong.
In addition to Daboll, he owes a lot to addition of Diggs and Beasley at WR. I am leery because I think he still takes more hits than necessary and has taken some really bad sacks in big games rather than throwing the ball away. That being said, I am more comfortable with Allen longterm than I am Lamar Jackson because I am not convinced that the latter can take the next step because elite defenses like he will see in the playoffs will always find a way to contain him unless he can develop when forced to remain in the pocket.
I haven't kept saying the Ravens should trade Jackson. I've said they can go either way with it, just like the Bills could have with Allen.
As for Jones, if he creates 45 TDs while leading the Giants to 30+ PPG and 13/14 wins... he's probably gonna get paid and I won't bitch about it. That's elite play.
Anyone want to bet he puts up that kind of that in 2021?
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
I just want to get this right. You keep saying that the smart thing for the Ravens to do is trade Jackson. Then you said Jackson is better than Allen. Then you said Allen is worth the money. Then how can you come to the conclusion that Baltimore should trade Jackson and not sign him long term?
Iirc, he also maintained, whether Elite or not, mega deals royally fuck up the TEAM SALARY STRUCTURE if a large percentage goes to one player
I haven't kept saying the Ravens should trade Jackson. I've said they can go either way with it, just like the Bills could have with Allen.
As for Jones, if he creates 45 TDs while leading the Giants to 30+ PPG and 13/14 wins... he's probably gonna get paid and I won't bitch about it. That's elite play.
Anyone want to bet he puts up that kind of that in 2021?
Okay. Fair. I have just never seen you say Baltimore should pay him. I've only seen you say that Baltimore should trade him. I remember bringing this up because you wanted Jackson in the draft so when I said why trade him you answer was basically because the cap hit is so big that it would be better to get picks and get a cheap QB.
If I were Baltimore I'd be drafting athletic quarterbacks to back him up and start limiting his exposure. Blowouts, end of year games that aren't needed, etc. Even particular situations in games, maybe.
But it is with repeating that he's been playing this way for 6 years at the college and pro levels and missed 1 game due to injury. He knows how to look after himself.
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
He was also a distraction and an asshole. I was one of the few saying his career would turn out as it has while people were watching on about his competitive fire and comparing him to Jerry fucking Rice. What a joke that was.
Oh the peril.,.Josh Allen has only shown strong improvement
in his game as a QB and a leader each year in the league. His development curve is exactly what you would like to see in a young QB and he nearly capped it off with an MVP season last year. And the Bills have only improved at the same rate.
Not suggesting it’s not a big contract but he is exactly the type of guy you should want to give it to...
He was also a distraction and an asshole. I was one of the few saying his career would turn out as it has while people were watching on about his competitive fire and comparing him to Jerry fucking Rice. What a joke that was.
I had my head so up my ass re: OBJ it’s shameful.
I’m no disciple of a culture barometer or litmus test (I think plenty of idiots and bad dudes succeed in the NFL) — but OBJ got to the point where he was actively antagonizing the team.
I can’t believe I thought extending him was a good idea.
The key point with Beckham was he didn't win games
Except for one year, the team was a loser while he was here. Was that his fault? Of course not. But that doesn't really matter when you're talking about who to pay and who not to.
The Bills have been winners in two of Allen's three years he's been the starting quarterback. Last year they were really good, and he was the main reason why. It's not like he's surrounded by amazing talent - Diggs was excellent, but none of the other skill position players were really good. Shit you could make the argument that Jones's supporting cast in 2021 is better than Allen's in 2020. There isn't a poster on this board that would bet a paycheck on Jones putting up 45 TDs this season and leading the Giants to 13 wins and 30 PPG. Not one poster. That's the difference. Allen is elite. Jones isn't.
Except for one year, the team was a loser while he was here. Was that his fault? Of course not. But that doesn't really matter when you're talking about who to pay and who not to.
The Bills have been winners in two of Allen's three years he's been the starting quarterback. Last year they were really good, and he was the main reason why. It's not like he's surrounded by amazing talent - Diggs was excellent, but none of the other skill position players were really good. Shit you could make the argument that Jones's supporting cast in 2021 is better than Allen's in 2020. There isn't a poster on this board that would bet a paycheck on Jones putting up 45 TDs this season and leading the Giants to 13 wins and 30 PPG. Not one poster. That's the difference. Allen is elite. Jones isn't.
And no one would have taken that bet last year on Allen either. I think the only QB anyone would make that bet on is Mahomes and that would be iffy.
In March 2020 Allen was +4000 to win MVP. That ranked him 16th amongst all players, just above Roethlisberger and Zeke Elliott. He didn't come out of the blue.
Jones is currently +10000, behind the likes of Tua, Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence.
Allen and Jones after year two were very, very different animals.
and think he's got brilliant physical skills. What the detractors fail to acknowledge about Allen's second year is the impact he made in the Buffalo run game. He was awesome running for 500+ yards and 9 TDs. Plus, he led the league in game winning drives. So Allen was performing when it mattered most. This is a big problem with the "Jones will have the same bounce as Allen in year three" crowd. Since they don't dive into the numbers, they can't provide the insight. Which is why I am here to help... ;)
However, I would have likely waited one more year with Allen just to make sure. His effort in the playoffs last year, to be honest, wasn't that great. So that leaves me just a little uncertain at this point...
In March 2020 Allen was +4000 to win MVP. That ranked him 16th amongst all players, just above Roethlisberger and Zeke Elliott. He didn't come out of the blue.
Jones is currently +10000, behind the likes of Tua, Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence.
Allen and Jones after year two were very, very different animals.
Allen's stats last year came out of nowhere in my view.
and think he's got brilliant physical skills. What the detractors fail to acknowledge about Allen's second year is the impact he made in the Buffalo run game. He was awesome running for 500+ yards and 9 TDs. Plus, he led the league in game winning drives. So Allen was performing when it mattered most. This is a big problem with the "Jones will have the same bounce as Allen in year three" crowd. Since they don't dive into the numbers, they can't provide the insight. Which is why I am here to help... ;)
However, I would have likely waited one more year with Allen just to make sure. His effort in the playoffs last year, to be honest, wasn't that great. So that leaves me just a little uncertain at this point...
I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
We all know the stats. Its like you aren't reading the concerns. And its fine if you don't agree with the concerns but you don't really address them either.
He's had 3 really good years, but when will that stop? Its reasonable to assume that it will be a lot earlier than most of the other top QB's.
That was the same criticism hurled at McNabb and all he did was win in his first 10 years. Why does Lamar Jackson winning have to stop?
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
Allen did what a small school prospect is supposed to do. Take his lumps and get his feet wet in year 1, polish some edges and show improvement in year 2, and then take everything you learned, put it all together, take your team deep into the playoffs, and play well doing it, in year 3. It's been a steady geowth pattern for Allen. Which everyone expected it wpuld take a couple of years for him.
Jackson is not the same. He came from a big program, is a run first QB, and basically is what you see is what you get. Good for him, the Ravens won a football game for him this season.
I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
My point is Allen was actually more productive than he gets credit for in his second year. He was 20/9 TD-INT, he was 59% completion, threw 3K+ and ran for 500+ and 9 rushing TDs. Plus 5 game winning drives that led the league. And the Bills went 10-6 with a playoff spot. So while Allen improved significantly in YR3, he actually built a pretty good foundation in YR2.
I don't feel the same about Jones. Personally, I think he regressed last year and will really have to deliver this year to justify moving forward with his play.
I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
My point is Allen was actually more productive than he gets credit for in his second year. He was 20/9 TD-INT, he was 59% completion, threw 3K+ and ran for 500+ and 9 rushing TDs. Plus 5 game winning drives that led the league. And the Bills went 10-6 with a playoff spot. So while Allen improved significantly in YR3, he actually built a pretty good foundation in YR2.
I don't feel the same about Jones. Personally, I think he regressed last year and will really have to deliver this year to justify moving forward with his play.
Yep, I agree a player can be more productive than their state indicate. That truth does not explain Allen's massive jump in statistics the following year. My point was; Allen's massive jump in production was not expected, the keyword here is massive. An earlier post claimed that no one would bet on Jones making that kind of leap in production as a criticism of Jones when in reality the amount of production Allen produced last year would be a bet most would not take for most starting quarterbacks.
day the Vegas betting lines get posted as if they provide support of things.
They provide evidence of public perception about the skill and likely success of individual players. That is pretty much the sole focus of this thread - public expectations about future performance.
that Allen and Jones both sucked their first two years, so Jones may make a quantum leap in year three like Allen did.
Allen was miserable in year 1. That was to be expected making a leap from Wyoming to the NFL. He improved in year 2, and was playing well at the end of the year. Year 3 was very good start to finish. But year 3 was the acceleration of a trend over his time in the NFL.
Jones played relatively well in year one, although inconsistent (which is expected for a rookie). The point where he diverges is year 2 for him was largely a regression. He didn’t build on year one like Allen did. And Allen was showing that improvement before Diggs got there.
Jones can absolutely take a leap forward in year 3. We all hope he does. But if he does he is not doing exactly what Allen did in year three. Allen continued a trend while Jones will be reversing one.
Somewhere along the line it’s become offensive to acknowledge Jones had a bad year last year. Allen did not have a bad year his 2nd year.
Two very different circumstances — both in the situation each QB played and the outcomes.
I’d be encouraged frankly if Jones had a season resembling Allen in 2019.
If Jones had 29/15 TD:TO, won several games at the end, won 10 games, and the Giants had were led to the playoffs on the backs of a really defensive — I’d be happy.
Anyone is offended at calling Jones' 2020 a 'bad' year. I think some fans are looking for some consideration for Jones' bad year statiscally. Certainly it would not be a good idea to claim Jones' 2020 was all circumstance.
As for Allen, I can only look at stats; I did not watch him closely at all while I am cautious about grading a player strictly on statistics.
Crick — I think the offense at large (coaching, prep, personnel) was in a disadvantage last year and Jones played badly.
I don’t think those are mutually exclusive outcomes.
Even in a bad situation, a quarterback with designs to get a team to the playoffs, has to play better than Jones did. I think this is where we agree.
I’m a little more bearish on the offense than some, I think it’s going to be a tough year. Mainly because I think the offensive line is a huge liability and the line coach has never done this at the pro level.
But I’m moderately bullish on Jones — if anything has all the tools physically to succeed.
The difference between a Josh Allen and Daniel Jones in their first two years was clearly trajectory in their respective passing.
Josh Allen actually improved a great deal from Year 1 to Year 2 in key figures like completion %, TD%, and Int % while still being extremely productive with his legs in terms of yards and TDs. Enough that his Year 3 should not be considered a massive unexpected jump in production, particularly since he had over 100 more passing attempts in 2020.
Jones meanwhile either clearly regressed or was relatively flat in most of his passing metrics. And while his running production was still good it remained relatively flat as well sans his 80-yarder against the Eagles. Not that he shouldn't be credited with that, only noting a likely non-recurring outlier.
So would actually suggest that Josh Allen showed he was figuring out the NFL in Year 2 and executed very well from start to finish in Year 3. Meanwhile, it really looks like the NFL was figuring out Daniel Jones in his respective Year 2.
Crick — I think the offense at large (coaching, prep, personnel) was in a disadvantage last year and Jones played badly.
I don’t think those are mutually exclusive outcomes.
Even in a bad situation, a quarterback with designs to get a team to the playoffs, has to play better than Jones did. I think this is where we agree.
I’m a little more bearish on the offense than some, I think it’s going to be a tough year. Mainly because I think the offensive line is a huge liability and the line coach has never done this at the pro level.
But I’m moderately bullish on Jones — if anything has all the tools physically to succeed.
I think we are on the same page
RE: Good posts above by Mike from Ohio and christian
The difference between a Josh Allen and Daniel Jones in their first two years was clearly trajectory in their respective passing.
Josh Allen actually improved a great deal from Year 1 to Year 2 in key figures like completion %, TD%, and Int % while still being extremely productive with his legs in terms of yards and TDs. Enough that his Year 3 should not be considered a massive unexpected jump in production, particularly since he had over 100 more passing attempts in 2020.
Jones meanwhile either clearly regressed or was relatively flat in most of his passing metrics. And while his running production was still good it remained relatively flat as well sans his 80-yarder against the Eagles. Not that he shouldn't be credited with that, only noting a likely non-recurring outlier.
So would actually suggest that Josh Allen showed he was figuring out the NFL in Year 2 and executed very well from start to finish in Year 3. Meanwhile, it really looks like the NFL was figuring out Daniel Jones in his respective Year 2.
I think nearly doubling passing TD's from 20 to 37 is a massive jump and probably not expected. The key is not nearly doubling passing TD's, but nearly doubling twenty TD's. I don't think that is something that is expected from a guy like Allen. But, perhaps I am wrong, and that kind of production can confidently be predicted.
and while great players can overcome or help their teams overcome some bad circumstances it easy to compare what Jones dealt with vs Allen in their second year.
Jones and whole offense was new with reduced practice time.
Number 1 offensive weapon missed most of season.
Offensive line was young and took time to gel- otherwise sucked.
Injured
These things on their own don’t prove anything about what Jones will become or how Allen might have played if he were on the Giants, but it makes it ridiculous to compare these players’ year two performance straight up.
as Jones could have a much better year 3 and Allen could regress as well in year 4. Hopefully at least the former happens as that is what we are all counting on.
But certainly not ridiculous to compare these two QBs at points in their career, even if on two different teams and situations. Remember this is discussion purposes only, so no need to get upset with regards to it.
They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
The Ravens have the best Head Coach in the NFL after BB. They were not a bad team. 2 years prior to drafting Jackson they were 8-8 and 9-7 in a division that is always tough and in 2017 they missed the playoffs in week 17 on a last second touchdown. Let's not pretend Lamar Jackson has built the Ravens success from the ground up. He went to a peach of a situation and good for him! He's taken advantage of all the resources they've provided and how they remodeled their entire offense to benefit him. Let's not pretend he's something he's not.
In a division that is always tough?
The Browns and Bengals have been absymal franchises for decades.
In terms of how scrambling or running?
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
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but I still can't help but wonder how they heck he holds up for 6 more years with his current style, and if he scales it back how effective he'd be. There's a lot of risk here IMO.
In terms of how scrambling or running?
I guess both. He takes a beating but it allows him to pass better. Its essentially how I'd like to use Jones but jury is out on A. whether we will use him that way enough and B. Can he make it through the season.
this ^
Longterm I'd agree but in regards to who's done more to date it isn't very close. Which is why i'd tell the Ravens to fuck off without a new deal.
I thought I had read that Jackson was negotiating his own deal with the Ravens.
I completely agree.
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who's been better than Allen but even more risky. Kinda shocked he hasn't threatened a holdout, I don't think id step foot on a field until i had a new deal if I was him.
I thought I had read that Jackson was negotiating his own deal with the Ravens.
I'm sure he's in the process of it but I haven't seen anything official. I'm guessing he won't play without a new deal.
Imagine that....
Imagine that....
What's your point?
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because Allen's first two seasons were very pedestrian - and yet, his 3rd season wasn't.
Imagine that....
What's your point?
That it isn't too shocking Allen's numbers won't look as good compared to Jackson's since two of the years weren't very good.
But I'm not completely sold on his accuracy and consistency since he only did it last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he has an up and down career like Matthew Stafford.
Jackson is gimmicky. Allen is a moose who can run, make any throw, is physically imposing and seems to have all the intangible qualities you'd want as well.
When looking for a franchise QB the basic question that needs to be asked is "can this guy win me a playoff game on the road if all hell breaks loose around him?" If you can answer yes you have a franchise QB.
I don't think the Bills view it that way at all. They probably would view it the same way as the Giants would if DJ killed it this year. Consistent growth and a massive jump when they added some talent around him.
Really the only risk is if he starts to become injury prone with his style. I question the length of the extension part, is it 6 years ontop of the option or 6 on top of the 4 year contract. Either way, that is the riskiest part of the contract, but it does come with upside. If he holds up, he's going to look like a bargain on that backend.
Ravens would be smart to option him and then franchise tag him twice. Unless of course he makes a massive step as a pure passer this year.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
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Fraught with peril, imv..
I don't think the Bills view it that way at all. They probably would view it the same way as the Giants would if DJ killed it this year. Consistent growth and a massive jump when they added some talent around him.
Really the only risk is if he starts to become injury prone with his style. I question the length of the extension part, is it 6 years ontop of the option or 6 on top of the 4 year contract. Either way, that is the riskiest part of the contract, but it does come with upside. If he holds up, he's going to look like a bargain on that backend.
You could be right on several counts
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
We all know the stats. Its like you aren't reading the concerns. And its fine if you don't agree with the concerns but you don't really address them either.
He's had 3 really good years, but when will that stop? Its reasonable to assume that it will be a lot earlier than most of the other top QB's.
Quote:
...
I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
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Fraught with peril, imv..
this ^
Would you want the Giants tot apply that conservatism to an extension with Jones if he had a similar year three?
Are they a nice regular season team with him or are they a potential championship team? Hard to hide deficiencies and advance.
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In comment 15324665 Big Blue '56 said:
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Fraught with peril, imv..
this ^
Would you want the Giants tot apply that conservatism to an extension with Jones if he had a similar year three?
Yup
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
The Ravens have the best Head Coach in the NFL after BB. They were not a bad team. 2 years prior to drafting Jackson they were 8-8 and 9-7 in a division that is always tough and in 2017 they missed the playoffs in week 17 on a last second touchdown. Let's not pretend Lamar Jackson has built the Ravens success from the ground up. He went to a peach of a situation and good for him! He's taken advantage of all the resources they've provided and how they remodeled their entire offense to benefit him. Let's not pretend he's something he's not.
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In comment 15324648 djm said:
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I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
The Ravens maybe facing a very Rams like situation if he flames out in the playoffs again.
If we're hoping for a similar leap from our QB in year three, I just don't have a ton of confidence that Garrett is going to do much to help him with that. Hope he proves me wrong.
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In comment 15324658 Go Terps said:
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In comment 15324648 djm said:
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I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
I just want to get this right. You keep saying that the smart thing for the Ravens to do is trade Jackson. Then you said Jackson is better than Allen. Then you said Allen is worth the money. Then how can you come to the conclusion that Baltimore should trade Jackson and not sign him long term?
If we're hoping for a similar leap from our QB in year three, I just don't have a ton of confidence that Garrett is going to do much to help him with that. Hope he proves me wrong.
In addition to Daboll, he owes a lot to addition of Diggs and Beasley at WR. I am leery because I think he still takes more hits than necessary and has taken some really bad sacks in big games rather than throwing the ball away. That being said, I am more comfortable with Allen longterm than I am Lamar Jackson because I am not convinced that the latter can take the next step because elite defenses like he will see in the playoffs will always find a way to contain him unless he can develop when forced to remain in the pocket.
As for Jones, if he creates 45 TDs while leading the Giants to 30+ PPG and 13/14 wins... he's probably gonna get paid and I won't bitch about it. That's elite play.
Anyone want to bet he puts up that kind of that in 2021?
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In comment 15324726 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 15324658 Go Terps said:
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In comment 15324648 djm said:
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I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
I just want to get this right. You keep saying that the smart thing for the Ravens to do is trade Jackson. Then you said Jackson is better than Allen. Then you said Allen is worth the money. Then how can you come to the conclusion that Baltimore should trade Jackson and not sign him long term?
Iirc, he also maintained, whether Elite or not, mega deals royally fuck up the TEAM SALARY STRUCTURE if a large percentage goes to one player
As for Jones, if he creates 45 TDs while leading the Giants to 30+ PPG and 13/14 wins... he's probably gonna get paid and I won't bitch about it. That's elite play.
Anyone want to bet he puts up that kind of that in 2021?
Okay. Fair. I have just never seen you say Baltimore should pay him. I've only seen you say that Baltimore should trade him. I remember bringing this up because you wanted Jackson in the draft so when I said why trade him you answer was basically because the cap hit is so big that it would be better to get picks and get a cheap QB.
But it is with repeating that he's been playing this way for 6 years at the college and pro levels and missed 1 game due to injury. He knows how to look after himself.
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In comment 15324658 Go Terps said:
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In comment 15324648 djm said:
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I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
When the QB is an elite player, I'm fine with it. I think Allen is an elite player. Had they traded him (what would Allen's value be? 3 first rounders at least?) I'd be fine with that too. That's the benefit of hitting big with a QB... You can't lose either way.
I'm never going to be against paying elite money to an elite player.
Just for the record...
OBJ was an elite player with the Giants.
Not suggesting it’s not a big contract but he is exactly the type of guy you should want to give it to...
I had my head so up my ass re: OBJ it’s shameful.
I’m no disciple of a culture barometer or litmus test (I think plenty of idiots and bad dudes succeed in the NFL) — but OBJ got to the point where he was actively antagonizing the team.
I can’t believe I thought extending him was a good idea.
The Bills have been winners in two of Allen's three years he's been the starting quarterback. Last year they were really good, and he was the main reason why. It's not like he's surrounded by amazing talent - Diggs was excellent, but none of the other skill position players were really good. Shit you could make the argument that Jones's supporting cast in 2021 is better than Allen's in 2020. There isn't a poster on this board that would bet a paycheck on Jones putting up 45 TDs this season and leading the Giants to 13 wins and 30 PPG. Not one poster. That's the difference. Allen is elite. Jones isn't.
The Bills have been winners in two of Allen's three years he's been the starting quarterback. Last year they were really good, and he was the main reason why. It's not like he's surrounded by amazing talent - Diggs was excellent, but none of the other skill position players were really good. Shit you could make the argument that Jones's supporting cast in 2021 is better than Allen's in 2020. There isn't a poster on this board that would bet a paycheck on Jones putting up 45 TDs this season and leading the Giants to 13 wins and 30 PPG. Not one poster. That's the difference. Allen is elite. Jones isn't.
And no one would have taken that bet last year on Allen either. I think the only QB anyone would make that bet on is Mahomes and that would be iffy.
Jones is currently +10000, behind the likes of Tua, Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence.
Allen and Jones after year two were very, very different animals.
2014 and 2015 Beckham ranks among the best 30 game stretches a WR has had in the NFL, he was by any measure damn good those two years.
However, I would have likely waited one more year with Allen just to make sure. His effort in the playoffs last year, to be honest, wasn't that great. So that leaves me just a little uncertain at this point...
Jones is currently +10000, behind the likes of Tua, Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence.
Allen and Jones after year two were very, very different animals.
Allen's stats last year came out of nowhere in my view.
However, I would have likely waited one more year with Allen just to make sure. His effort in the playoffs last year, to be honest, wasn't that great. So that leaves me just a little uncertain at this point...
I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
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They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
We all know the stats. Its like you aren't reading the concerns. And its fine if you don't agree with the concerns but you don't really address them either.
He's had 3 really good years, but when will that stop? Its reasonable to assume that it will be a lot earlier than most of the other top QB's.
That was the same criticism hurled at McNabb and all he did was win in his first 10 years. Why does Lamar Jackson winning have to stop?
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In comment 15324648 djm said:
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I don't see any problem with this contract. He's an elite player with elite arm talent and great mobility. Good time to be a Bills fan.
And do you think you're adding a lot with the bat signal comment? You whine when I post, you whine when I don't post.
How on earth do you go from your "don't give a QB a second contract" mantra to thinking this monster is a good deal for a QB that had one good year and plays awfully recklessly physically?
Allen did what a small school prospect is supposed to do. Take his lumps and get his feet wet in year 1, polish some edges and show improvement in year 2, and then take everything you learned, put it all together, take your team deep into the playoffs, and play well doing it, in year 3. It's been a steady geowth pattern for Allen. Which everyone expected it wpuld take a couple of years for him.
Jackson is not the same. He came from a big program, is a run first QB, and basically is what you see is what you get. Good for him, the Ravens won a football game for him this season.
I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
My point is Allen was actually more productive than he gets credit for in his second year. He was 20/9 TD-INT, he was 59% completion, threw 3K+ and ran for 500+ and 9 rushing TDs. Plus 5 game winning drives that led the league. And the Bills went 10-6 with a playoff spot. So while Allen improved significantly in YR3, he actually built a pretty good foundation in YR2.
I don't feel the same about Jones. Personally, I think he regressed last year and will really have to deliver this year to justify moving forward with his play.
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I don't recall seeing anyone saying Jones will have a year like Allen's. What I have seen is fans saying Jones could have a big leap forward this year. I can't imagine anyone has said Jones would match Allen's stats.
My point is Allen was actually more productive than he gets credit for in his second year. He was 20/9 TD-INT, he was 59% completion, threw 3K+ and ran for 500+ and 9 rushing TDs. Plus 5 game winning drives that led the league. And the Bills went 10-6 with a playoff spot. So while Allen improved significantly in YR3, he actually built a pretty good foundation in YR2.
I don't feel the same about Jones. Personally, I think he regressed last year and will really have to deliver this year to justify moving forward with his play.
Yep, I agree a player can be more productive than their state indicate. That truth does not explain Allen's massive jump in statistics the following year. My point was; Allen's massive jump in production was not expected, the keyword here is massive. An earlier post claimed that no one would bet on Jones making that kind of leap in production as a criticism of Jones when in reality the amount of production Allen produced last year would be a bet most would not take for most starting quarterbacks.
They provide evidence of public perception about the skill and likely success of individual players. That is pretty much the sole focus of this thread - public expectations about future performance.
Allen was miserable in year 1. That was to be expected making a leap from Wyoming to the NFL. He improved in year 2, and was playing well at the end of the year. Year 3 was very good start to finish. But year 3 was the acceleration of a trend over his time in the NFL.
Jones played relatively well in year one, although inconsistent (which is expected for a rookie). The point where he diverges is year 2 for him was largely a regression. He didn’t build on year one like Allen did. And Allen was showing that improvement before Diggs got there.
Jones can absolutely take a leap forward in year 3. We all hope he does. But if he does he is not doing exactly what Allen did in year three. Allen continued a trend while Jones will be reversing one.
Somewhere along the line it’s become offensive to acknowledge Jones had a bad year last year. Allen did not have a bad year his 2nd year.
Two very different circumstances — both in the situation each QB played and the outcomes.
I’d be encouraged frankly if Jones had a season resembling Allen in 2019.
If Jones had 29/15 TD:TO, won several games at the end, won 10 games, and the Giants had were led to the playoffs on the backs of a really defensive — I’d be happy.
As for Allen, I can only look at stats; I did not watch him closely at all while I am cautious about grading a player strictly on statistics.
I don’t think those are mutually exclusive outcomes.
Even in a bad situation, a quarterback with designs to get a team to the playoffs, has to play better than Jones did. I think this is where we agree.
I’m a little more bearish on the offense than some, I think it’s going to be a tough year. Mainly because I think the offensive line is a huge liability and the line coach has never done this at the pro level.
But I’m moderately bullish on Jones — if anything has all the tools physically to succeed.
Josh Allen actually improved a great deal from Year 1 to Year 2 in key figures like completion %, TD%, and Int % while still being extremely productive with his legs in terms of yards and TDs. Enough that his Year 3 should not be considered a massive unexpected jump in production, particularly since he had over 100 more passing attempts in 2020.
Jones meanwhile either clearly regressed or was relatively flat in most of his passing metrics. And while his running production was still good it remained relatively flat as well sans his 80-yarder against the Eagles. Not that he shouldn't be credited with that, only noting a likely non-recurring outlier.
So would actually suggest that Josh Allen showed he was figuring out the NFL in Year 2 and executed very well from start to finish in Year 3. Meanwhile, it really looks like the NFL was figuring out Daniel Jones in his respective Year 2.
I don’t think those are mutually exclusive outcomes.
Even in a bad situation, a quarterback with designs to get a team to the playoffs, has to play better than Jones did. I think this is where we agree.
I’m a little more bearish on the offense than some, I think it’s going to be a tough year. Mainly because I think the offensive line is a huge liability and the line coach has never done this at the pro level.
But I’m moderately bullish on Jones — if anything has all the tools physically to succeed.
I think we are on the same page
Josh Allen actually improved a great deal from Year 1 to Year 2 in key figures like completion %, TD%, and Int % while still being extremely productive with his legs in terms of yards and TDs. Enough that his Year 3 should not be considered a massive unexpected jump in production, particularly since he had over 100 more passing attempts in 2020.
Jones meanwhile either clearly regressed or was relatively flat in most of his passing metrics. And while his running production was still good it remained relatively flat as well sans his 80-yarder against the Eagles. Not that he shouldn't be credited with that, only noting a likely non-recurring outlier.
So would actually suggest that Josh Allen showed he was figuring out the NFL in Year 2 and executed very well from start to finish in Year 3. Meanwhile, it really looks like the NFL was figuring out Daniel Jones in his respective Year 2.
I think nearly doubling passing TD's from 20 to 37 is a massive jump and probably not expected. The key is not nearly doubling passing TD's, but nearly doubling twenty TD's. I don't think that is something that is expected from a guy like Allen. But, perhaps I am wrong, and that kind of production can confidently be predicted.
But would suggest he is reaching the upper tier level now so this obviously won't be doubling again.
Jones and whole offense was new with reduced practice time.
Number 1 offensive weapon missed most of season.
Offensive line was young and took time to gel- otherwise sucked.
Injured
These things on their own don’t prove anything about what Jones will become or how Allen might have played if he were on the Giants, but it makes it ridiculous to compare these players’ year two performance straight up.
But certainly not ridiculous to compare these two QBs at points in their career, even if on two different teams and situations. Remember this is discussion purposes only, so no need to get upset with regards to it.
I can see a regression from Allen but he did have an elite season. I think he's going to be pretty good for a long time.
Because if he has another good year he could demand more.
He took somewhat less than Mahomes did. Next year, he could ask for more.
And Bills would be in a tough position to say no.
Huge as it seems, this deal has been called a bargain, given the prospective escalation in the cap.
That's the gist of the discussion on the Bills' board.
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They are 30-7 in those games. That's an .810 winning percentage. He's missed, I believe, 1 game to injury going back to when he became a starter at Louisville in 2015.
You want to say you're hesitant to go with a quarterback that runs that much, that's fair. But he gets unfairly knocked quite a bit.
The Ravens have the best Head Coach in the NFL after BB. They were not a bad team. 2 years prior to drafting Jackson they were 8-8 and 9-7 in a division that is always tough and in 2017 they missed the playoffs in week 17 on a last second touchdown. Let's not pretend Lamar Jackson has built the Ravens success from the ground up. He went to a peach of a situation and good for him! He's taken advantage of all the resources they've provided and how they remodeled their entire offense to benefit him. Let's not pretend he's something he's not.
In a division that is always tough?
The Browns and Bengals have been absymal franchises for decades.
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What is the incentive for teams to extend before year 4? I'm curious on why it seems that's when QBs seem to get their extensions?
Because if he has another good year he could demand more.
He took somewhat less than Mahomes did. Next year, he could ask for more.
And Bills would be in a tough position to say no.
Huge as it seems, this deal has been called a bargain, given the prospective escalation in the cap.
That's the gist of the discussion on the Bills' board.
Thanks, shyster.