What is the acceptable YPA for a QB in TODAY’S game?

people say, “another 300 yard game for so and so” and yet, when we look at their YPA, it’s sometimes barely over 5..

If you use AY/A, I think that needs to be 8+.

it's like when people judge how good a baseball player is by how many RBIs they have. Its a nice little stats but hardly reflective of how one plays or how good one is.

There's probably no other stat in football that is more reliant on the talent or the performance of the skilled players in YPA. Yes, I understand it is very important to be accurate and read defenses, but when a WR catches a 5 yard pass and turns it into a 45 yard completion, who deserves the credit?

.....looking at one stat can be very miss leading.

If ypa is low...then completion % must be higher....

If the QB is effecient in the redzone, doesnt turn the ball over and can read a defense and command the offense i am good..

Having looked at NFL box scores for 60 years, I never can understand the fascination with yards per attempt.
It is a quick and easy way to combine completion percentage with total passing yards. I find it much more revealing to look at both figures separately.
First I check the completion percentage and determine if it is acceptable, these days over 60%, closer to 66%.
Then I divide total passing yards by number of completions to find the yards per completion. Any amount 10 yards or over is good and the 10 yards benchmark simplifies the math.
So look at the completion percentage and yards per completion to get a better measure of the QB game stats.

Lamb didn't drop that long pass down the middle that Dak tried to sneak into heavy coverage.

And did it perfectly...

Of the biggest issues for the 2020 giants’ offense was lack of big plays. The YPA numbers speak to that. Some blame came be put on Jones and some can go on Garrett (curls with WR/TE’s backs to the end zone). But one thing that gets me riled up a bit was watching other qbs deemed elite make a 3 yard pass and the WR/RB/TE taking it for 30+ yards and a potential TD. The giants had none of that last year. Yards passing was almost all air yards. Yards after catch were nonexistent. That’s what needs to change. I’m hoping that with SB, KD, and KG, it will.

KT, not KD.

In comment 15358026 gregori said:

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Having looked at NFL box scores for 60 years, I never can understand the fascination with yards per attempt. It is a quick and easy way to combine completion percentage with total passing yards. I find it much more revealing to look at both figures separately. First I check the completion percentage and determine if it is acceptable, these days over 60%, closer to 66%. Then I divide total passing yards by number of completions to find the yards per completion. Any amount 10 yards or over is good and the 10 yards benchmark simplifies the math. So look at the completion percentage and yards per completion to get a better measure of the QB game stats.

I too look at yards per completion

........

according to truebluelarry that is very good.

That is why the Giants added Galloday and Toney. Maybe Ross gives then something as well.

I think if you throwing 40 times a game for the Giants it will be problematic. Jones stuggles with progressions and awareness and our OL is not great at pass blocking. This leads to potential Int's and sacks.

Ideally the Giants should be rushing for 130 plus ypg with Jones throwing for 240 ypg plus. High rushing attempts and low pass attempts with higher YPA I see as a good thing.

I don't think it makes sense to set some sort of threshold based on this one statistic. How that relates to the performance of the QB (and receivers, for that matter) is too dependent on scheme, defense and context. Sometimes the best way to win is with steady short gains, and sometimes it is with chunk plays.

Look at it this way: if a team has a drive where they throw no passes but go 80 yards for a TD on 16 runs, everyone would call that a good drive, right? So if those 16 runs become 16 short passes is the drive not equally good?

What you want is for the QB to make the right decisions and throw the ball well. How frequently the right decision is a short pass isn't a relevant criterion.

dictates the ypa too much to be a truly 1 for 1 viable stat.

However, I will see Dak's stats would look much Different if Carlton Davis caught what was an easy Int in the endzone.

Dak played well all things considered but, it will be interesting to see how he comes off a 50 plus night throwing the ball- ie how sore will that shoulder area be and how the boys come back from a somewhat crushing defeat. The Bucs did everything possible to hand the Boys that game- turnovers, penalties and a HUGE disparage in TOP.. Yet, the Bucs still won.

In comment 15358019 nygiants16 said:

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If the QB is effecient in the redzone, doesnt turn the ball over and can read a defense and command the offense i am good..

I tend to agree with you, but if you had a choice between a QB who was efficient on 5-7 yard throws and 10-12 yard throws, you would choose the guy who is more efficient pushing the ball further down the field. Conversely, I'd rather have a guy whose Y/A is 6.8 with 10 INT's as opposed to a guy whose Y/A is 8 with 20 INT's.

In comment 15358064 Victor in CT said:

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........

😂😂

In comment 15358076 ShockNRoll said:

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In comment 15358019 nygiants16 said: Quote: If the QB is effecient in the redzone, doesnt turn the ball over and can read a defense and command the offense i am good.. I tend to agree with you, but if you had a choice between a QB who was efficient on 5-7 yard throws and 10-12 yard throws, you would choose the guy who is more efficient pushing the ball further down the field. Conversely, I'd rather have a guy whose Y/A is 6.8 with 10 INT's as opposed to a guy whose Y/A is 8 with 20 INT's.

but the stat itself doesnt tell the whole story thats all my point was about..

A qb could throw 3 30 yard passes in the air and it would look the same as a qb throwing 3 5 yard outs that the wr took 30 yards..

In comment 15358033 Jimmy Googs said:

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Lamb didn't drop that long pass down the middle that Dak tried to sneak into heavy coverage. And did it perfectly...

I see plays like that evening out over a course of a game. Dak's INT was clearly not his fault. It was probably his best throw all night. He was really unlucky. However he did also have a throw where David dropped an INt at the 10 and if he wasnt there, another defender had the INT.

Lucky/unlucky plays are part of the game.

In comment 15358033 Jimmy Googs said:

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Lamb didn't drop that long pass down the middle that Dak tried to sneak into heavy coverage. And did it perfectly...

If Lamb didn't drop that pass he may not be playing next week or for the rest of the season.

But unquantified observations carry all sorts of problems (and insight!) so some grounding in numbers always helps.

In comment 15358087 GNewGiants said:

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In comment 15358033 Jimmy Googs said: Quote: Lamb didn't drop that long pass down the middle that Dak tried to sneak into heavy coverage. And did it perfectly... I see plays like that evening out over a course of a game. Dak's INT was clearly not his fault. It was probably his best throw all night. He was really unlucky. However he did also have a throw where David dropped an INt at the 10 and if he wasnt there, another defender had the INT. Lucky/unlucky plays are part of the game.

I agree. But wasn't talking about luck...

Good thread.

There have been several studies showing YPA having among the highest correlation to wins in the NFL

Turnover margin is consistently the highest

The linked article is one of many in recent years discussing different stats:

“ Yards per carry may not have correlated to wins in our data, but yards per pass did. In fact, the relationship was stronger for yards per pass than yards per play (which is understandable given the weak relationship with running).”
Link - ( New Window )

Incorporate YPA but also turnovers.

In comment 15358089 dabru said:

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In comment 15358033 Jimmy Googs said: Quote: Lamb didn't drop that long pass down the middle that Dak tried to sneak into heavy coverage. And did it perfectly... If Lamb didn't drop that pass he may not be playing next week or for the rest of the season.

It is a tough game, but he may have lived thru it.

Probably should have gotten hit anyway but I think the Bucs were actually surprised that pass got in there and Lamb went up and tried to get it.

He needs to catch it nevertheless...

Four QBs had over 8 YPA last year - Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins and Watson.

The next 18 were over 7 YPA. So most starting QBs last year were above 7.

Those who started most games for their team and were below 7 were Lock, Jones, Ben, Darnold and Wenz.

So I think it would be fair to say below 7 is poor, 7-8 is average, and above 8 is very good.

In comment 15358026 gregori said:

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Having looked at NFL box scores for 60 years, I never can understand the fascination with yards per attempt. It is a quick and easy way to combine completion percentage with total passing yards. I find it much more revealing to look at both figures separately. First I check the completion percentage and determine if it is acceptable, these days over 60%, closer to 66%. Then I divide total passing yards by number of completions to find the yards per completion. Any amount 10 yards or over is good and the 10 yards benchmark simplifies the math. So look at the completion percentage and yards per completion to get a better measure of the QB game stats.

Offenses are measured by their ability to gain yardage, which is correlated with scoring. Their efficiency is how many yards they gain per snap. I don’t love YPA but it’s a shorthand to measure overall offensive efficiency. (Better to deduct sack yardage and the effect on field position from turnovers. That’s a better metric but requires a spreadsheet, hence the YPA shorthand.)

To acquire Matthew Stafford this offseason?

Answer: take a look at Stafford’s 2019 YPA. It’s a Hall of Fame level result. If McVay can steer the Rams offense to that YPA figure, they may very well win it all. That’s one use of YPA.

over a season than per game, because a game plan or game situation in any single game can alter that. Last night the Cowboys offense was designed to get the ball out of Dak's hands quickly to avoid the Tampa front 7 and exploit the CBs. It worked very well. They attempted very few runs, and when they did it didn't go well.

If you watched the game last night, you saw that Dak had a great game. He did put a few balls into bad spots and got lucky with 2-3 dropped interceptions. But they put the game on his arm and he almost won it. He played very well.

I feel like Gettleman as I type this (hunt and peck style)...

BUT the only stat I care to analyze right now is W-L.

In comment 15358114 cosmicj said:

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To acquire Matthew Stafford this offseason? Answer: take a look at Stafford’s 2019 YPA. It’s a Hall of Fame level result. If McVay can steer the Rams offense to that YPA figure, they may very well win it all. That’s one use of YPA.

I'm a big Stafford fan, and I believe he's one of the most underrated QB's I've ever seen. For this reason, the Rams are my pick to win the SB this year. The Rams have been missing an elite QB, Stafford has been missing...well, since Calvin Johnson retired, pretty much everything.

In comment 15358109 Mike from Ohio said:

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Four QBs had over 8 YPA last year - Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins and Watson. The next 18 were over 7 YPA. So most starting QBs last year were above 7. Those who started most games for their team and were below 7 were Lock, Jones, Ben, Darnold and Wenz. So I think it would be fair to say below 7 is poor, 7-8 is average, and above 8 is very good.

yes and look who those top qbs have compared to the bottom qbs...

All those top qbs have stars at wr that can take 3 yard routes to the house at any point

In comment 15358119 Mike from Ohio said:

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over a season than per game, because a game plan or game situation in any single game can alter that. Last night the Cowboys offense was designed to get the ball out of Dak's hands quickly to avoid the Tampa front 7 and exploit the CBs. It worked very well. They attempted very few runs, and when they did it didn't go well. If you watched the game last night, you saw that Dak had a great game. He did put a few balls into bad spots and got lucky with 2-3 dropped interceptions. But they put the game on his arm and he almost won it. He played very well.

Hit the nail on the head, Mike

In comment 15358126 nygiants16 said:

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In comment 15358109 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: Four QBs had over 8 YPA last year - Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins and Watson. The next 18 were over 7 YPA. So most starting QBs last year were above 7. Those who started most games for their team and were below 7 were Lock, Jones, Ben, Darnold and Wenz. So I think it would be fair to say below 7 is poor, 7-8 is average, and above 8 is very good. yes and look who those top qbs have compared to the bottom qbs... All those top qbs have stars at wr that can take 3 yard routes to the house at any point

Who were the star receivers Watson had?v Brandin Cooks? The guy has been in the league 7 years and is on his fourth team.

Top QBs also make the receivers around them much better.

In comment 15358140 Mike from Ohio said:

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Who were the star receivers Watson had?v Brandin Cooks? The guy has been in the league 7 years and is on his fourth team. Top QBs also make the receivers around them much better.

Fuller and Cooks, while not great receivers, are very formidable and have produced throughout their careers. But Watson made them better - but those two are quietly very good WRs.

since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat.

In comment 15358153 Ira said:

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since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat.

That is a gross oversimplification. All stats in football are influenced by other factors. Yard per carry for a RB, receiving yards, interceptions...all are not solely on one individual. But that doesn't mean the data - over a period of time like a season - don't tell you something about the performance of the player.

In comment 15358153 Ira said:

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since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat.

Yup. There are a bunch of stats that cause me to look deeper. One of my biggest gripes I have with QB stats (as well as rushing stats, etc.,) is garbage time yardage.

They nees to separate them so that we get a realistic read, imv. A team’s D could be completely shutting down an O with say 150 total yards allowed and because of a huge lead, they relax in the final quarter and the offense picks up a meaningless 200+ yards or whatever. The D stats are affected in the overall, imo

Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt
(Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TD - 45 * Interceptions) / (Passes Attempted)

In comment 15358171 Big Blue '56 said:

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In comment 15358153 Ira said: Quote: since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat. Yup. There are a bunch of stats that cause me to look deeper. One of my biggest gripes I have with QB stats (as well as rushing stats, etc.,) is garbage time yardage. They nees to separate them so that we get a realistic read, imv. A team’s D could be completely shutting down an O with say 150 total yards allowed and because of a huge lead, they relax in the final quarter and the offense picks up a meaningless 200+ yards or whatever. The D stats are affected in the overall, imo

I’m sure teams have that broken down for their overall assessments, but the available public stats do not delineate

In comment 15358026 gregori said:

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Having looked at NFL box scores for 60 years, I never can understand the fascination with yards per attempt. It is a quick and easy way to combine completion percentage with total passing yards. I find it much more revealing to look at both figures separately. First I check the completion percentage and determine if it is acceptable, these days over 60%, closer to 66%. Then I divide total passing yards by number of completions to find the yards per completion. Any amount 10 yards or over is good and the 10 yards benchmark simplifies the math. So look at the completion percentage and yards per completion to get a better measure of the QB game stats.

10 yards a completion is Andy Dalton territory which ranked 30th in the NFL last season. 11 yards a completion is about the midpoint. Jones was at 10.5 where he tied with Mineshew for 24th. Yards per attempt 7.3 is about the midpoint. Jones was 6.6 tied with Lock for 26th on the list.

of the team's passing offense. In 2005, Eli was middling in yards per attempt but was 3rd in yards per completion- high risk, high reward offense that went down the field.

You also get an idea as to just how good Simms was and the answer is very, very good. I just looked at 1984 and 1986 and he was top 10 in yards per attempt and top 5 in yards per completion- ball went down the field with lots of completions.

DJ's offense is different-low yards per attempt and low yards per completion- lots of short passes and completing a particularly high percentage.

For giggles I looked at 1970 and 1968. Watson led the league last season with 12.6 a completion. That would have put him in 15th place in 1970. Those old boys went bombs away.

Fun with numbers

In comment 15358282 HomerJones45 said:

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of the team's passing offense. In 2005, Eli was middling in yards per attempt but was 3rd in yards per completion- high risk, high reward offense that went down the field. You also get an idea as to just how good Simms was and the answer is very, very good. I just looked at 1984 and 1986 and he was top 10 in yards per attempt and top 5 in yards per completion- ball went down the field with lots of completions. Yup and Joe Willie? DJ's offense is different-low yards per attempt and low yards per completion- lots of short passes and completing a particularly high percentage. For giggles I looked at 1970 and 1968. Watson led the league last season with 12.6 a completion. That would have put him in 15th place in 1970. Those old boys went bombs away. Fun with numbers

In comment 15358009 Big Blue '56 said:

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people say, “another 300 yard game for so and so” and yet, when we look at their YPA, it’s sometimes barely over 5..

What I have heard in the past is pass to get the lead, run to secure the lead. Teams want to play with a lead/do not like playing from behind. They'll pass more when behind, and have the luxury to run more with a lead. I know it's not that black and white, but the percentages would likely bear this out.

Dallas held a lead in the 2nd quarter, it lasted all of 38 seconds, and they did not hold again until Tampa's game winning drive.

If your pass attempts nearly touch 60 it's likely you are playing from behind, the opposing defenses have the opportunity to be less aggressive and concede underneath stuff to a)not give up quick scores b)chew clock.

So, to answer your question, I wouldn't look at YPA as a measure of QB play without looking at circumstances of the game. I thought Dak played well with what the team needed from his last night, YPA it seems would have a correlation with winning as the team playing from behind will typically be forced to throw more, and be given more underneath targets as concessions for time/alleviating quick score risk from opposing defenses.

In comment 15358152 GNewGiants said:

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In comment 15358140 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: Who were the star receivers Watson had?v Brandin Cooks? The guy has been in the league 7 years and is on his fourth team. Top QBs also make the receivers around them much better. Fuller and Cooks, while not great receivers, are very formidable and have produced throughout their careers. But Watson made them better - but those two are quietly very good WRs.

Fuller and Cooks are fine receivers. But they are not propping up Deshaun Watson and his high YPA. Sometimes receivers are more productive when they have a better QB.

In comment 15358282 HomerJones45 said:

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of the team's passing offense. In 2005, Eli was middling in yards per attempt but was 3rd in yards per completion- high risk, high reward offense that went down the field. You also get an idea as to just how good Simms was and the answer is very, very good. I just looked at 1984 and 1986 and he was top 10 in yards per attempt and top 5 in yards per completion- ball went down the field with lots of completions. DJ's offense is different-low yards per attempt and low yards per completion- lots of short passes and completing a particularly high percentage. For giggles I looked at 1970 and 1968. Watson led the league last season with 12.6 a completion. That would have put him in 15th place in 1970. Those old boys went bombs away. Fun with numbers

Yup and Joe Willie?

because his completion percentage was. He did have some accuracy issues early on.

One thing I believe is that YPA goes up when you have a very good running game. The reason being that you are in favorable down and distance which opens up the PA game and ultimately big play potential.

In comment 15358171 Big Blue '56 said:

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In comment 15358153 Ira said: Quote: since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat. Yup. There are a bunch of stats that cause me to look deeper. One of my biggest gripes I have with QB stats (as well as rushing stats, etc.,) is garbage time yardage. They nees to separate them so that we get a realistic read, imv. A team’s D could be completely shutting down an O with say 150 total yards allowed and because of a huge lead, they relax in the final quarter and the offense picks up a meaningless 200+ yards or whatever. The D stats are affected in the overall, imo

How would you define garbage time. At the risk of bringing up painful memories, for example, in the 1997 Playoff game vs the Vikes, they won the game in what we would probably all have agreed was garbage time had the Giants not allowed them to recover an onsides kickoff.

In comment 15358731 Mike in Boston said:

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In comment 15358171 Big Blue '56 said: Quote: In comment 15358153 Ira said: Quote: since his offensive line and receivers have so much to do with that stat. Yup. There are a bunch of stats that cause me to look deeper. One of my biggest gripes I have with QB stats (as well as rushing stats, etc.,) is garbage time yardage. They nees to separate them so that we get a realistic read, imv. A team’s D could be completely shutting down an O with say 150 total yards allowed and because of a huge lead, they relax in the final quarter and the offense picks up a meaningless 200+ yards or whatever. The D stats are affected in the overall, imo How would you define garbage time. At the risk of bringing up painful memories, for example, in the 1997 Playoff game vs the Vikes, they won the game in what we would probably all have agreed was garbage time had the Giants not allowed them to recover an onsides kickoff.

That game was a fluke, an outlier as was our 2010 loss to the Eagles.We all know what garbage time is. No, I can’t give an exact time frame, but a team that has a commanding lead with at least half of the 4th period to go, will give up a ton of yards to the opponent..I’ve seen countless times where a team down by a lot will gain chunks and chunks of meaningless yardage, use their times out to get the ball back and again gain chunks of yardage when they regain possession.