I think we’re starting to have clarity on where Jones stands as an NFLer. Right now, I expect him to have a long and lucrative career as a high level backup QB. The sort of player a contending team goes out and hires because they don’t want their championship drive derailed if their starting QB misses a few games, giving them a high character backup who can play decently.
Let’s level set him against another high level backup Qb, Bridgewater, who I think will make a living in a similar role.
Some facts:
Bridgewater has posted a higher YPA in every season in the NFL* than Daniel Jones has EVER posted in either the NCAA or NFL.
* Excluding his 2018 injury recovery year.
Over their career, the two players have very similar INT % and TD % ratios. They are in fact very close.
Their TD/INT ratios are also similar: Bridgewater 55TDs/36INTs. Jones: 36/22.
If Bridgewater is a better pure passer, Jones is more mobile and has a stronger arm.
I am not comparing their playing styles, which are very different. But it looks right now like they will have similar niches within the NFL ecosystem.
Eric, interesting informative write up
M.S. : 9/10/2021 6:18 pm : link : reply
Just one note about the opposing QBs -- your very last line caught my eye: "The Giants also need (and should expect) Daniel Jones to out-play Teddy Bridgewater."
I'd like to feel this way as much as anyone, but I guess my question boils down to this: Is Daniel Jones really that much better than Teddy Bridgewater?
Here are their respective stats based on an average 16-game season:
QB Rating
DJ 84.1
TB 89.5
Completed Passes
DJ 334
TB 281
Pass Attempts
DJ 537
TB 424
Pass Completion Percentage
DJ 62.2%
TB 66.5%
Passing Yardage
DJ 3,538
TB 3,087
TD Passes
DJ 21
TB 14
INTs
DJ 13
TB 10
I wish it were a slam dunk for Daniel Jones, but it isn't. And as for fumbles, Teddy Bridgewater averages 1 per 16-game season. Daniel Jones, 7!
Bridgewater also had a pretty good run of games for the Saints when Drew Brees went down - I was kind of surprised they didn't keep him
Jon - How would you compare him in terms of bottom line quality to Jones?
But at the end of the day.... W-L record is all that matters:
Teddy B is 27-23
DJ is 8-19
Quote:
I think his game and command are good enough where a team can rely on him to win some games while a young QB is groomed (or found if Lock's not the guy). At the same time, he's only in his age 29 season and maybe he's capable of more on a team with protection around him and out of an intense media spotlight. I'd take him before a Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taysom Hill, Trubisky, or Tyrod Taylor level QB.
Jon - How would you compare him in terms of bottom line quality to Jones?
Mike beat me to it above, Teddy plays with instincts and feels the gameflow. He can adjust, improvise, make a play, and he moves on quickly from mistakes. Jones has more physical talent, but the intrinsic stuff Teddy has is where Jones is consistently showing as lacking imv. Jones is still bird-dogging receivers, not protecting the football on the run, and yesterday he seemed chained in the pocket earlier in the game. Teddy seemed to have two reads and he was well prepared, while Jones couldn't seem to process the action, again.
Mike in Ohio - you are correct
Some examples of such variables include years in a system, years with supporting cast, system types (think Gilbride's option routes vs. many one-read systems, vs. zone-read, etc.), quality of run game, quality of defense, quality of OL, quality of opponents, etc.
I suppose comparing completion percentage is better than those arguments which reduce a QB's effectiveness to W/L record, but not by much, imo.
Quote:
but Bridgewater is the smarter and more instinctive QB. Bridgewater knows the plays and understand where pressure is coming from and where guys will be. You can almost see Jones trying to picture the play from the playbook in his head to try and remember what to do. That's isn't because Jones isn't smart - he is. The position just doesn't seem natural to him.
Mike in Ohio - you are correct
Actually it's 28 career games (with 40 turnovers)
Jones is the opposite: locks onto one receiver and panics under pressure.
Its not one game. Where is the evidence that this guy can be an average let alone a good starting QB?
This was the year we needed to see the leap, and it isn't there.
1. Slow to process (see it, throw it)
2. Slow to deliver the ball (pat, bring ball down and up in looping motion)
3. Slow to deliver the ball outside numbers with zip
This was a problem that Kerry Collins had too - slow to process, slow looping motion. He had a huge arm that made up for that now and then, but it was a problem forever.
This was a problem for Jones at Duke, it's a problem now, and it will stay a problem.