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I hate to say this, but we need analytics people in the boot

Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 12:49 pm
8 runs under center on first down and we totaled 1 yard. WFT was gashing us for yards. WFT had 3 timeouts and 2 minute warning. Just unfuckingbelievable.

They would have been dumping the fucking panic button on something like this. I think analytics in football is overblown because of the ever changing variables and a lot of it’s obvious what you should be doing at home, but Judge literally has zero feel for gameflow and what’s going on. He’s too emotional not to get checked by some math nerds. The evidence bears it out and he’s hell bent on highlighting his special teams.
ignore analytics at your own peril  
Producer : 9/17/2021 12:50 pm : link
I agree we need a healthy dose of it.
I have zero issue with running the ball 3 downs.  
robbieballs2003 : 9/17/2021 12:53 pm : link
The problem is what was called. Run the read option again. They couldn't stop it.
RE: I have zero issue with running the ball 3 downs.  
crick n NC : 9/17/2021 12:53 pm : link
In comment 15374266 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
The problem is what was called. Run the read option again. They couldn't stop it.


agreed.
RE: I have zero issue with running the ball 3 downs.  
Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 12:55 pm : link
In comment 15374266 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
The problem is what was called. Run the read option again. They couldn't stop it.


Right, which is where the analytic nerds would have stepped in! We did have success running out of shotgun. Instead we go right to what didn't work.
And if you are going to pass it needs to be a damn near 100%  
robbieballs2003 : 9/17/2021 12:55 pm : link
pass to keep the clock moving. Pass on 1st down with a boot where Jones has a deep, intermediate, and short option as well as a running option to slide in bounds and keep the clock moving.
RE: And if you are going to pass it needs to be a damn near 100%  
Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 12:58 pm : link
In comment 15374275 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
pass to keep the clock moving. Pass on 1st down with a boot where Jones has a deep, intermediate, and short option as well as a running option to slide in bounds and keep the clock moving.


The clock wasn't a factor in this though, it was all about the first down or TD. The playbook should have been wide open, but somehow they couldn't figure that out. They were going to have plenty of time regardless to get a FG even if we completed that short with how our defense plays.

Good OC's  
Lines of Scrimmage : 9/17/2021 1:01 pm : link
always have something in their hip pocket. WFT was going to play to stop the run. I would have liked to see 1st down be some type of play action on the move and it is either pass or Jones runs to be the clock moving.

My guess is Judge told Garrett to call something safe. They probably did not want Jones running with the ball.
.  
Danny Kanell : 9/17/2021 1:03 pm : link
He's emailing the 4 computer guys as we speak

Damm straight we do  
Jerry in_DC : 9/17/2021 1:04 pm : link
There are lots of problems that can be solved by observing data and understanding probabilities. It is possible for the coach to do these things, 1) he has other things going on and 2) there are people who are more skilled at these things than the coach.

It's foolish not to maximize available resources. But the Giants are pretty foolish.
There were so many  
family progtitioner : 9/17/2021 1:06 pm : link
analytics errors by Judge in this game. Punting at the 39, multiple FG attempts without TD efforts. I'm definitely not an analytics guru and sometimes decisions have to be made from gut instinct, but his errors were egregious. He's just not good
RE: RE: And if you are going to pass it needs to be a damn near 100%  
robbieballs2003 : 9/17/2021 1:09 pm : link
In comment 15374283 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 15374275 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


pass to keep the clock moving. Pass on 1st down with a boot where Jones has a deep, intermediate, and short option as well as a running option to slide in bounds and keep the clock moving.



The clock wasn't a factor in this though, it was all about the first down or TD. The playbook should have been wide open, but somehow they couldn't figure that out. They were going to have plenty of time regardless to get a FG even if we completed that short with how our defense plays.


I disagree. Getting a first down too quick does little to help you.
If you get the first down even on two incompletions they are forced to  
Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 1:21 pm : link
use a timeout and you have 3 fresh plays, which then you can run on. The clock looks a helluva lot different than what they trotted out there on. It's all it really took.
Excuse me the clock, doesn't look all that different probably 20 less  
Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 1:23 pm : link
seconds to account for the plays, but they'll have zero timeouts. Even if we ran the ball three times there, they still would have had a timeout in the pocket. Having 1 vs 0 and driving the field opens up a lot you can do defensively.
In regards to the late game  
jvm52106 : 9/17/2021 1:27 pm : link
handling of the ball starting inside the 20 with just over 2 minutes- the whole clock thing is moot. It was never about the clock or time outs as far as I am concerned.

Reasons:

The distance from LOS to endzone was 20 yards- add in 10 for back of the endzone and you are working with 30 vertical yards. Play time or time on play was not going to be long no matter what as the WFT were coming heavy to the LOS.

The WFT had time outs plus the 2 minute warning. At best you get them to use two quick timeouts but, you most likely (and in this case did) leave yourself in a hole for 3rd down.

The play should have been to try and get the first down or TD (in fact the TD might have been easier as the WFT was playing to stop us from using time). A TD and then subsequent 2 pt conversion attempt would in theory would make it a TD game and no chance to beaten outright unless WFT scored a TD and 2 pt conversion.

A first down would effectively end the game as the WFT would have used a TO to stop the clock (or more than one if we took two or three plays to get the first). Now you can eat up clock and kick the FG with little to no time left with the WFT with no time outs or they are forced to let us score (and again the two point conversion would be attempted) but now with NO time outs left and needing a TD.
RE: In regards to the late game  
jvm52106 : 9/17/2021 1:30 pm : link
In comment 15374356 jvm52106 said:
Quote:
handling of the ball starting inside the 20 with just over 2 minutes- the whole clock thing is moot. It was never about the clock or time outs as far as I am concerned.

Reasons:

The distance from LOS to endzone was 20 yards- add in 10 for back of the endzone and you are working with 30 vertical yards. Play time or time on play was not going to be long no matter what as the WFT were coming heavy to the LOS.

The WFT had time outs plus the 2 minute warning. At best you get them to use two quick timeouts but, you most likely (and in this case did) leave yourself in a hole for 3rd down.

The play should have been to try and get the first down or TD (in fact the TD might have been easier as the WFT was playing to stop us from using time). A TD and then subsequent 2 pt conversion attempt would in theory would make it a TD game and no chance to beaten outright unless WFT scored a TD and 2 pt conversion.

A first down would effectively end the game as the WFT would have used a TO to stop the clock (or more than one if we took two or three plays to get the first). Now you can eat up clock and kick the FG with little to no time left with the WFT with no time outs or they are forced to let us score (and again the two point conversion would be attempted) but now with NO time outs left and needing a TD.


One other point, after watching Washington take a drive down for a score on two plays we should NEVER have been confident to rely on our defense. That was just conservative BS and playing not to lose which generally leads to losing.
Jvm  
cosmicj : 9/17/2021 1:35 pm : link
Good analysis.

One other thing that supports your view is that the defensive linemen on both sides were gassed. This is a Thursday night game and the performance of the defensive fronts was literally getting worse by the play. So there should be no expectation that the Giants could stop WFT from driving 30-40 yards and kick a winning FG.

Judge needs to learn from this and integrate it into the teams late game decision matrix.
RE: Jvm  
Zeke's Alibi : 9/17/2021 1:36 pm : link
In comment 15374377 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Good analysis.

One other thing that supports your view is that the defensive linemen on both sides were gassed. This is a Thursday night game and the performance of the defensive fronts was literally getting worse by the play. So there should be no expectation that the Giants could stop WFT from driving 30-40 yards and kick a winning FG.

Judge needs to learn from this and integrate it into the teams late game decision matrix.


This really is our turning point. This team isn't bad player wise, our coaches need to wake up and it starts at the top. They have ten days to look at this one and learn, we can only pray.
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