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Leonard Williams

ajr2456 : 10/13/2021 12:56 pm
Ranks 50th out of 62 in pass rush win rate, while only being double teamed at about league average (link). So he’s not getting pressures or even being double teamed that much.

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@sethwalder

Just noticed Leonard Williams ranks 50th in pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle out of 62 qualifiers.

Double team - ( New Window )
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RE: RE: RE: RE: In  
AcidTest : 10/13/2021 2:46 pm : link
In comment 15412254 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 15412246 AcidTest said:


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In comment 15412221 ajr2456 said:


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In comment 15412213 AcidTest said:


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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.

LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.



The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.



There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.



But it’s all connected. They could have paid an average DT salary to someone else and invested the rest of Williams cap hit in players who can actually get to the passer.


I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.

Of course, not being able to sign a good FA pass rusher doesn't mean we should have resigned Williams. I was OK with the contract given it's relatively short length, but would have been fine letting him go as well. But as others have noted, that was never going to happen. DG had to resign him to justify the draft capital he spent to get him.

I also think overpaying Williams was less problematic than signing all of Booker, Golladay, Rudolph, Jackson, and Odenigbo, the last of whom was cut. A good case can be made that none should have been signed.
RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
The Jake : 10/13/2021 2:47 pm : link
In comment 15412255 Eric on Li said:
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The context I interpret from the chart is that LW is being treated by opposing teams similarly to all of the same IDL he's been comp'd to for contract purposes (like Buckner, Jarrett, Cox, Clark, etc). His win rate is better than some of them and worse than some of them. His raw production is similar too.


Therein lies the entire point of this debate.

If he's being treated like an average player by opposing defenses, that means he is an average player.

And he gets paid top dollar.

See the problem?
RE: LW defenders on this thread  
trueblueinpw : 10/13/2021 2:52 pm : link
In comment 15412237 The Jake said:
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are completely missing the point.

So far the arguments in LW's defense are that he's the best defensive player on the team (hello EXTREMELY low bar), that he had some tackles and sacks recently (how nice), and that he gets double-teamed a lot (check the chart).

Even if all of those things are true (they're not), he's STILL not worth what we paid him.

The truth is that LW had DG over a barrel when it came time to negotiate his current deal. LW (and his agent) knew that if he walked and ended up signing elsewhere, it would make DG look even worse in that he wasted trade capital. DG, being the reactionary doofus that he is, paid LW top DE money, not because that's what he's worth in the NFL, but because he had to save face.

Playing in the position that LW plays, there is simply no way that he will earn the money in his contract. And that unfortunately sets LW up to fail as a player here.


I agree with post 💯. And I’m always happy to kick Dave’s old man nuts for being such an arrogant and ruinous buffoon. I spilled much ink here on the idiotic LW trade which I maintain was the worst NFL trade I’ve ever seen. But once Getty overpaid, and we all knew he would, the course was set. And now, I don’t think LW is playing poorly as much as he’s just not playmaker.
They didn’t have to spend the money on an elite  
ajr2456 : 10/13/2021 2:53 pm : link
Pass rusher. But they could have went and gotten upgrades.
Impact rushers  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/13/2021 2:54 pm : link
rarely hit the market. You can find the older veterans occasionally that you hope have a little left and even they get paid pretty big money.

I do think the rotation is a factor keeping guys fresh but it is also that the D puts itself in that position. Dallas ran the ball 39 times. That kills your front.
Remember  
AcidTest : 10/13/2021 2:57 pm : link
when we had Strahan, Osi, Tuck, and Kiwi? The common denominator is that we drafted all of them.
RE: Remember  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/13/2021 3:01 pm : link
In comment 15412301 AcidTest said:
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when we had Strahan, Osi, Tuck, and Kiwi? The common denominator is that we drafted all of them.


Bingo. Impact players with your premium picks on Defense.
I made a prediction before the season  
GMen72 : 10/13/2021 3:05 pm : link
that LW would regress this year because of his huge payday. I dont think that's the case, he's playing hard and is disruptive. The issue with LW is he's overpaid...and he's overpaid because Gettleman is an idiot, couldn't have handled the LW situation worse, and LWs agent worked DG like a rib.

If LW was making $10-12 million per for 4 years, like he would be, if DG hadn't made that stupid trade and signed him as a FA...he'd be a great deal and player. He's not a top 10 player at his position, but he's top 25...he's just paid like one of the top 10 because our GM is horrible at his job!
RE: RE: LW defenders on this thread  
The Jake : 10/13/2021 3:07 pm : link
In comment 15412292 trueblueinpw said:
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I agree with post 💯. And I’m always happy to kick Dave’s old man nuts for being such an arrogant and ruinous buffoon. I spilled much ink here on the idiotic LW trade which I maintain was the worst NFL trade I’ve ever seen. But once Getty overpaid, and we all knew he would, the course was set. And now, I don’t think LW is playing poorly as much as he’s just not playmaker.


Keep fighting the good fight. The louder we get, the more likely we are to get... someone's attention.

And make no mistake about it - I will be cheering like hell for LW in every single game. And when he makes a good play, I will cheer even louder. I am completely comfortable in keeping my fan brain and my armchair GM brain compartmentalized.

But when the inevitable "LW played well, see, DG isn't that dumb" thread gets started in the future, all of you LW defenders feel free to return to this thread to remind yourselves:

He's STILL not worth what we paid for him.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: In  
Section331 : 10/13/2021 3:18 pm : link
In comment 15412280 AcidTest said:
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I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.


Last year was actually a pretty good ER FA class. Matt Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Hassan Reddick, Trey Hendrickson, Bud Dupree all changed teams. Reddick is looking like a steal right now at 1 yr, $8M.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: In  
ajr2456 : 10/13/2021 3:29 pm : link
In comment 15412340 Section331 said:
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In comment 15412280 AcidTest said:


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I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.




Last year was actually a pretty good ER FA class. Matt Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Hassan Reddick, Trey Hendrickson, Bud Dupree all changed teams. Reddick is looking like a steal right now at 1 yr, $8M.


Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: In  
Section331 : 10/13/2021 3:32 pm : link
In comment 15412351 ajr2456 said:
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Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.


I get the concern about Reddick, coming off a career year when half his sacks were Daniel Jones, but Matt Judon would have been a good signing at 4/$54.
RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/13/2021 3:44 pm : link
In comment 15412132 Eric on Li said:
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from the chart accompanying the tweet. Also interesting to see how often Lawrence has been double teamed (PFF has his overall grade regressing more than Williams but more double teams could be an explanation for that?).



Williams has definitely been better vs. the run than the pass so far this year. PFF has his run grade slightly higher than last year but pass rush grade slightly lower but he's also rated as the best overall player on the D so far this year (overall they have him graded as the 17th/116 DL, Lawrence is 43rd, Johnson is 59th).

Out of all the problems with the defense though I don't think the IDL are as high up on the list. The secondary, LBs, and Edges seem to all be a much bigger concern from the eye test and PFF has Carter, Crowder, McKinney, and Ojulari rated at the bottom of their respective positions.

His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/13/2021 3:46 pm : link
In comment 15412151 christian said:
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In comment 15412132 Eric on Li said:


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from the chart accompanying the tweet.



What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?

I think it's starting to become clear that Eric in Li is big fan of LW to the exclusion of data.
He's not a #1 type DL  
arniefez : 10/13/2021 3:51 pm : link
He's a very strong, very good two way DL. He's a perfect #2 DL. He is not an All Pro, not a guy who beats his man one on one very often. Rarely makes a play for a loss. Those are the guys you give top 10 money. The Giants aren't in this mess by accident. They are a really dumb NFL team.
You KNEW  
thedogfather : 10/13/2021 3:59 pm : link
Williams was going to decline from last season after getting the money. We just didn't know much. He's as bad as it can get. Thanks Dave.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: In  
SirLoinOfBeef : 10/13/2021 4:04 pm : link
In comment 15412361 Section331 said:
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In comment 15412351 ajr2456 said:


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Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.



I get the concern about Reddick, coming off a career year when half his sacks were Daniel Jones, but Matt Judon would have been a good signing at 4/$54.


Forgot about Reddick. Just checked, he has 6.5 sacks already this season.
RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Eric on Li : 10/13/2021 4:10 pm : link
In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:
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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.


excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
 
christian : 10/13/2021 4:48 pm : link
I think that win rate data for Cox, plus his production corroborates the eye ball test that after 10 years in the league, he’s on the decline.

Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL, 17 game season.

That’s an OK season, but that’s a hard sell next year when he’s 13% of the cap.
RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/13/2021 6:08 pm : link
In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:


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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.



excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).

Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.

And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.

As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.
 
christian : 10/13/2021 6:52 pm : link
Gatorade that is a fair observation.

The Giants are paying Williams like he’s a Frank Clark type player, when he’s closer to a Grady Jarret player.

I think we’re seeing Williams was in the perfect situation last year, and the Giants couldn’t replicate it.

RE: …  
Angel Eyes : 10/13/2021 7:02 pm : link
In comment 15412641 christian said:
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Gatorade that is a fair observation.

The Giants are paying Williams like he’s a Frank Clark type player, when he’s closer to a Grady Jarret player.

I think we’re seeing Williams was in the perfect situation last year, and the Giants couldn’t replicate it.

Technically, Williams is a Grady Jarret-type, a 3-4 end/4-3 tackle. He just doesn't think so, remember last year when he filed a lawsuit with the Giants because he wanted to be listed as a defensive end?
RE: DE  
mittenedman : 10/14/2021 8:09 am : link
That's another problem. The Giants play him at DE way too much. Watching this guy run the arc is like watching a Sun Dial.
RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Johnny5 : 10/14/2021 8:24 am : link
In comment 15412596 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:


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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.



excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).


Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.

And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.

As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.

I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.
He was as close to dominate in many instances in 2020.  
NYGgolfer : 10/14/2021 8:35 am : link
Did the NY Giants have that much more of an edge rush a year ago that is making that difference?

Or is that Williams has (also) underperformed year over year?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
chuckydee9 : 10/14/2021 8:55 am : link
In comment 15413023 Johnny5 said:
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In comment 15412596 Gatorade Dunk said:


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In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:


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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.



excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).


Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.

And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.

As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.


I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.


If he took money relative to his ability we would be better able to afford edge.. The overall investment we have in interior DL is way off based.. every other year we spend a high draft pick on a run stuffing DT who provides no pass rush.. 2 of our biggest investments are interior DL.. our highest edge person is a 2nd round rookie.. This is part of why DG fails.. Between stacking up similar wrs (till this year), Converting old players salary into bonus and not having an overall game plan to properly allocate assets, we aren't able to solve any of the problems this team has..

LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/14/2021 9:34 am : link
In comment 15413052 chuckydee9 said:
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In comment 15413023 Johnny5 said:


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In comment 15412596 Gatorade Dunk said:


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In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:


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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.



excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).


Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.

And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.

As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.


I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.



If he took money relative to his ability we would be better able to afford edge.. The overall investment we have in interior DL is way off based.. every other year we spend a high draft pick on a run stuffing DT who provides no pass rush.. 2 of our biggest investments are interior DL.. our highest edge person is a 2nd round rookie.. This is part of why DG fails.. Between stacking up similar wrs (till this year), Converting old players salary into bonus and not having an overall game plan to properly allocate assets, we aren't able to solve any of the problems this team has..

LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.

$12M is probably low, if we're being fair. But $17-18M seems about right, which would free up $5-6M that could have been used with the money spent on Adoree, to go get a true pass rush threat (like Judon or Reddick) to complement what LW does well. With the draft resources DG has committed to the CB position during his tenure, the fact that he has had to sign two premium FAs on top of all the draft choices is as big of a problem as the LW overpay.
RE: ...  
Toth029 : 10/14/2021 9:50 am : link
In comment 15412210 christian said:
Quote:
I don't think Williams is dogging it.

I think this a team architecture issue.

When the Giants balanced the books before the season they spent the money on Jackson instead of Tomlinson.

Then when the offensive line depth cratered, they flipped Hill.

Hill and Tomlinson are legit starters, Johnson and Shelton are not.


Johnson is. He's also eating doubles and the run defense is averaging under 4 yards a pop when he's in.

Shelton is just not good anymore and is a liability when he's in.
Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 10:33 am : link
by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 10:46 am : link
In comment 15412281 The Jake said:
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In comment 15412255 Eric on Li said:


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The context I interpret from the chart is that LW is being treated by opposing teams similarly to all of the same IDL he's been comp'd to for contract purposes (like Buckner, Jarrett, Cox, Clark, etc). His win rate is better than some of them and worse than some of them. His raw production is similar too.



Therein lies the entire point of this debate.

If he's being treated like an average player by opposing defenses, that means he is an average player.

And he gets paid top dollar.

See the problem?


do you think Buckner, Cox, Watt, Simmons, Clark, and Vea are also being treated like average players?

im pretty sure the median line on this chart is being skewed by the NT's like Lawrence who get doubled more by virtue of position/purpose.

Unless you think teams are intentionally treating Lawrence like more of a threat than Aaron Donald?
RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Section331 : 10/14/2021 11:06 am : link
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.


Williams' cap hit this year isn't the problem, his contract was designed to push the money into years 2 & 3. It is a little disingenuous to include that without mentioning his cap hits for years 2 & 3, which are prohibitive, as is the dead money if he is cut or traded.

He is a good player on a very bad contract.
RE: RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 11:30 am : link
In comment 15413191 Section331 said:
Quote:


Williams' cap hit this year isn't the problem, his contract was designed to push the money into years 2 & 3. It is a little disingenuous to include that without mentioning his cap hits for years 2 & 3, which are prohibitive, as is the dead money if he is cut or traded.

He is a good player on a very bad contract.


every contract in the NFL was set up that way last year because of the covid cap - including both Jackson/Ryan who were signed within the year. I used this year's $ because we are talking about this year's performance.

if you go by AAV the ratio of $ is likely similar (all of the DB's AAV's are higher than this year's cap # too). LW goes up to $20m and Bradberry goes up to 15m, Jackson goes up to 13m, Ryan goes up to 10m, etc.

he is a good player on a fair contract based on the most comps. whether the move works out or not is not entirely up to his individual performance because it's a team sport and the team result is what matters most. People called michael strahan overpaid for a lot of years before they were willing to write him a blank check to unretire.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
The Jake : 10/14/2021 11:51 am : link
In comment 15413170 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
do you think Buckner, Cox, Watt, Simmons, Clark, and Vea are also being treated like average players?

im pretty sure the median line on this chart is being skewed by the NT's like Lawrence who get doubled more by virtue of position/purpose.

Unless you think teams are intentionally treating Lawrence like more of a threat than Aaron Donald?


I agree with you that the NTs skew the double team line a bit, and I would also argue that this is a relatively small sample size, but neither one of those things excuse LW's contribution to the defense vis a vis his contract.

That other players are also overpaid (Buckner, etc.), doesn't help this franchise whatsoever. Consider, instead, our cap situation compared to that of the Colts, if you want to use Buckner as a comparison. Sure, they may have overpaid Buckner, but they also have $55m in cap space next year. They're allowed a couple of fuckups here and there with that kind of room.

LW counts for $26.5m against the cap next year, by himself. There is no football argument on Earth that justifies that number.
RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Angel Eyes : 10/14/2021 11:53 am : link
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.

On Jones: didn't the Chiefs move him to edge rusher this year?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: that seems misleading without the context of his double team rate  
bw in dc : 10/14/2021 12:01 pm : link
In comment 15413052 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:

LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.


LW got exactly what he was worth. But it was a market price we should not have paid considering what our needs were/are.
RE: RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 12:01 pm : link
In comment 15413237 Angel Eyes said:
Quote:
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.


On Jones: didn't the Chiefs move him to edge rusher this year?


yup that's probably the reason.
RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Section331 : 10/14/2021 12:08 pm : link
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:

I would argue that Williams isn't getting paid like Buckner, but Buckner is getting paid like Williams. DG overpaid, and set the rate for DT/DE hybrids at $21M/yr. It's still a gross overpay. $17M/yr is probably more like it.
...  
christian : 10/14/2021 12:27 pm : link
As a 3-year value, I don't dislike the contract. Three years of premium interior pass rush for 61M is the going rate.

The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).

Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.

The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?

I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.

- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson

- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari

- The secondary sucks



RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
chuckydee9 : 10/14/2021 1:05 pm : link
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.


LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..

Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..
RE: RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
Angel Eyes : 10/14/2021 1:12 pm : link
In comment 15413368 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.



LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..

Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..

Is it possible that this might have to do with the coaching? Jackson is supposed to be a good man-to-man coverage corner but Graham has him playing in zone 10 yards off the ball like Bradberry.
agree all around christian  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 1:17 pm : link
In comment 15413286 christian said:
Quote:
As a 3-year value, I don't dislike the contract. Three years of premium interior pass rush for 61M is the going rate.

The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).

Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.

The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?

I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.

- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson

- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari

- The secondary sucks



Johnson for Tomlinson has been an ok trade off relative to price.

dealing Hill and having to play Shelton has been a big downgrade.

and spending Tomlinson's $ on Jackson instead of a better edge rusher doesn't look good at all. there were other Cb's signed for less $ than Jackson so far this year, and obviously he hasn't been the impact player they thought he'd be. Casey Hayward for whatever reason continues to bounce around the league and play like a stud.

Those are the areas where I'd like a mulligan. I'm good with Williams, Galloday, Bradberry, Ryan, Martinez. I think they are all part of the solution (if there is one).
RE: ...  
Section331 : 10/14/2021 1:19 pm : link
In comment 15413286 christian said:
Quote:
As a 3-year value, I don't dislike the contract. Three years of premium interior pass rush for 61M is the going rate.

The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).

Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.

The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?

I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.

- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson

- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari

- The secondary sucks




I would argue that the only reason it's the going rate is because DG set the market. Buckner signed for the same money a year later. Chris Jones did sign a year earlier at about the same $$$, but he has nearly double the sack rate. Jonathan Allen is at $18M, and he is a better player.
RE: RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 10/14/2021 1:26 pm : link
In comment 15413401 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15413286 christian said:


Quote:


As a 3-year value, I don't dislike the contract. Three years of premium interior pass rush for 61M is the going rate.

The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).

Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.

The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?

I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.

- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson

- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari

- The secondary sucks






I would argue that the only reason it's the going rate is because DG set the market. Buckner signed for the same money a year later. Chris Jones did sign a year earlier at about the same $$$, but he has nearly double the sack rate. Jonathan Allen is at $18M, and he is a better player.


Buckner was traded/signed in March 2020.
Chris Jones was extended in July 2020.
Leonard Williams signed in March 2021.

jonathan allen had 2 sacks in 16 games last year (and 8 total in his previous 31 games). he's on track to having a career year this year and he's still not that far off Leonard Williams on the chart this thread is based on.
RE: RE: RE: Williams is getting paid like Buckner and that's how he's producing  
chuckydee9 : 10/14/2021 1:34 pm : link
In comment 15413383 Angel Eyes said:
Quote:
In comment 15413368 chuckydee9 said:


Quote:


In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)

all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).

when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).

Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.



LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..

Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..


Is it possible that this might have to do with the coaching? Jackson is supposed to be a good man-to-man coverage corner but Graham has him playing in zone 10 yards off the ball like Bradberry.


No the points I made were clear in pointing out that he isn't being misused.. he just isn't any good.. If he was good man to man.. there would be a team willing to pay him 13M and trade a 5th round pick for him.. Titans tried and got no one to bite..
some more stats to keep the fun going (from skinner on twitter)  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 11:24 am : link
Quote:
Leonard Williams through 5 games (2020vs2021)

20: 19 Tackles, 4 TFL, 4 QB Hits, 2.0 Sacks

21: 26 Tackles, 2 TFL, 4 QB Hits, 1.5 Sacks

also has more pressures this year than last year through 5 games

2020: 4
2021: 6


I get not wanting to pay a lot for a non-elite (Donald level) player. I think that's wrong and myopic but I get it. That's separate from evaluating how Williams has played so far. Any stats I've seen are along the lines of his very consistent prior career. And in terms of impact they don't win the NO game without his 4th down stop and the holding penalty he drew to take the long TD pass off the board.

He's a lightning rod for obvious reasons but he's also clearly 1 of the best and most reliable players on the team. Which is why he cost what he did.
Sorry, but  
The Jake : 10/15/2021 12:02 pm : link
the only thing that proves is that he's an average DT who also happens to start the season off slowly.

You're not helping yourself here! :)
RE: Sorry, but  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 12:06 pm : link
In comment 15414530 The Jake said:
Quote:
the only thing that proves is that he's an average DT who also happens to start the season off slowly.

You're not helping yourself here! :)


if you think he's an average DT you don't know what an average DT is.
Victor in CT  
Bubba : 10/15/2021 1:14 pm : link
Williams is being paid to be elite, not just very well. Dexter is not.
He's either overpaid or underperforning.  
Jimmy Googs : 10/15/2021 1:44 pm : link
Choose your poison instead of continuing to dig in much further on this...
He had a career-best season, which is to his credit  
Ten Ton Hammer : 10/15/2021 2:14 pm : link
and they paid him as if he was a brand name, established star pass rusher who you could rely on to be a consistent pro bowl level player.

These types of misplays happen when you're trying to microwave your roster into a contender.
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