Ranks 50th out of 62 in pass rush win rate, while only being double teamed at about league average (link). So he’s not getting pressures or even being double teamed that much.
@sethwalder
Just noticed Leonard Williams ranks 50th in pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle out of 62 qualifiers. |
Double team - (
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Another waste of a jersey.
Williams has definitely been better vs. the run than the pass so far this year. PFF has his run grade slightly higher than last year but pass rush grade slightly lower but he's also rated as the best overall player on the D so far this year (overall they have him graded as the 17th/116 DL, Lawrence is 43rd, Johnson is 59th).
Out of all the problems with the defense though I don't think the IDL are as high up on the list. The secondary, LBs, and Edges seem to all be a much bigger concern from the eye test and PFF has Carter, Crowder, McKinney, and Ojulari rated at the bottom of their respective positions.
And he clearly paired very well with Tomlinson.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
The larger problem is the edge players aren't getting it done behind him, that's the engine of a 3-4, and we're rolling a four-cylinder out there.
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from the chart accompanying the tweet.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
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In comment 15412132 Eric on Li said:
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from the chart accompanying the tweet.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Looks to be 15 players, or a third of DTs, that get double teamed the same or more and have a higher pass rush win rate.
Williams is the 6th highest paid lineup and making $25 million.
The larger problem is the edge players aren't getting it done behind him, that's the engine of a 3-4, and we're rolling a four-cylinder out there.
My sense last year LW was allowed to free lance and pin his ears back a lot, because Frackrell, Sheard, Martinez others were reliable edge sealers.
Wouldn't be surprised if the approach is more containment versus busting the pocket with the talent around him now.
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Correct. Hargarve best but not doubled as much. Donald true interior beast.
My only somewhat disappointment with the Big Cat this season is his lack of big plays in big spots. And I could say the same thing for the entire defense. I keep waiting for him to take over a game but he doesn’t really do that very often. Really, it was a surprise when he did take over takes last year. Williams isn’t have a bad season he’s just not a guy who makes a lot of impact plays. Part of that, probably most, is because he plays a position that doesn’t usually have a flashy impact. Not to say the position isn’t important, it certain is, or that there can’t be plays made from the IDL, just look at AD and you know they can. But it’s not really a flashy position.
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Nope, you are correct. Williams seems to get double-teamed exactly average in comparison to other DTs and still has one of the lowest win rates. I'm not sure if Eric from LI thinks this is supposed to make Williams look better or not, because it surely does not.
OTOH it really gives more evidence to show how dominant Aaron Donald is. Jesus.
From the Sy56 review warts and all: "DAL averaged 5.2 yards per carry and while some of that will be put on the defensive line, most of the blame should be placed on the guys in the next position group. Leonard Williams had 6 tackles, a half-sack, and a pressure. He had a dumb personal foul penalty late in the game where he couldn’t hide his frustration. Dexter Lawrence was hot and cold. He finished with 3 tackles. The glaring negative I have was the result of him facing off against DAL right guard Zack Martin. Martin, one of the best in the game still, abused Lawrence when they were on an island. That is a red flag for me. Lawrence did get him on one pass rush but otherwise, he looked overmatched.
Yes, Leonard is loafing because of his contract. What a bunch of embarrassingly stupid comments.
I know Tomlinson has been talked about ad nauseum, but maybe he helped free up Dex to make plays as well as Williams. Dex seems to be more the voice on that Dline now too. Tomlinson was a team CPT for a reason.
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Yes - and that's why it's the least crowded quadrant.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
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is Dexter.
I know Tomlinson has been talked about ad nauseum, but maybe he helped free up Dex to make plays as well as Williams. Dex seems to be more the voice on that Dline now too. Tomlinson was a team CPT for a reason.
version of this chart. Was Tomlinson maybe eating up more double teams to allow Lawrence to win more? Has Lawrence gotten doubled more this year and been less effective?
Tomlinson didn't play much in pass rush situations so I kind of doubt it, but would be curious to see the numbers.
Looks to be 15 players, or a third of DTs, that get double teamed the same or more and have a higher pass rush win rate.
Williams is the 6th highest paid lineup and making $25 million.
Big Leonard's money should have always been somewhere around Grady Jarret, Cam Heyward, maybe Kenny Clark. That is his normal performance comps.
Or he should have gone into a career in negotiations...
according to the graph Dexter is being double teamed 70% of the time. only a couple DT's in the league are double teamed more often (if you believe that graph is accurate).
i don't know if it's a scheme change or what, but the entire unit is underperforming, it's not just one guy. something on that side of the ball is really rotten with this team
I think this a team architecture issue.
When the Giants balanced the books before the season they spent the money on Jackson instead of Tomlinson.
Then when the offensive line depth cratered, they flipped Hill.
Hill and Tomlinson are legit starters, Johnson and Shelton are not.
The data says otherwise.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
The over/under pay is a valid topic.
I am just wondering what's misleading about the chart.
If you want the biggest likely difference between this year's D and last year's:
The Giants got Honeymoon years from expensive UFA's in Bradberry, Martinez & Logan Ryan, and huge efforts from Williams and Tomlinson in contract years.
Those 5 things are gone now. And on top of that, Graham benched a SS (Peppers) who played well for him last year for a guy (McKinney) who stinks.
I think most posters acknowledge that LW is playing well, it's just that in his position and given the personnel around him, he isn't measuring up to his contract value. That's not his fault, it's Gettleman's.
Which is one reason many of us hated the trade, it would force DG to overpay to save face.
So far the arguments in LW's defense are that he's the best defensive player on the team (hello EXTREMELY low bar), that he had some tackles and sacks recently (how nice), and that he gets double-teamed a lot (check the chart).
Even if all of those things are true (they're not), he's STILL not worth what we paid him.
The truth is that LW had DG over a barrel when it came time to negotiate his current deal. LW (and his agent) knew that if he walked and ended up signing elsewhere, it would make DG look even worse in that he wasted trade capital. DG, being the reactionary doofus that he is, paid LW top DE money, not because that's what he's worth in the NFL, but because he had to save face.
Playing in the position that LW plays, there is simply no way that he will earn the money in his contract. And that unfortunately sets LW up to fail as a player here.
The 2018 draft is killing the defense. Baker, Carter, Xman. They had to spend big money to replace Baker which could of been used elsewhere.
The LB's are killing the defense.
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
The 2018 draft is killing the defense. Baker, Carter, Xman. They had to spend big money to replace Baker which could of been used elsewhere.
The LB's are killing the defense.
Baker and Ximines were drafted in 2019.
My guess is he will end the year with enough of meaningless sacks, say 5 or so, that the story here will be "Leonard Williams is not the problem".
Paying top-shelf money for a few good players, and good money for average players is bad business...
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In comment 15412213 AcidTest said:
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
But it’s all connected. They could have paid an average DT salary to someone else and invested the rest of Williams cap hit in players who can actually get to the passer.
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Yes - and that's why it's the least crowded quadrant.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
The over/under pay is a valid topic.
I am just wondering what's misleading about the chart.
There is nothing misleading about the chart because it shows both inputs (win rate + double team rate) - I said it is misleading to show the win rate without the appropriate double team context.
The context I interpret from the chart is that LW is being treated by opposing teams similarly to all of the same IDL he's been comp'd to for contract purposes (like Buckner, Jarrett, Cox, Clark, etc). His win rate is better than some of them and worse than some of them. His raw production is similar too.
The guys doubled at a higher rate than Donald (including Lawrence) seem to be space eaters specifically playing a role designed to occupy double teams - and imo distort the chart a little bit at least in terms of where the median line lands on the horizontal axis.
He was living in the backfield on pass and run plays.
The biggest question was why?
Seems pretty obvious that with adequate edge containment, and a fresh rotation on the DL, Williams can be the finisher so many have been clamoring for.
He's not the individual wrecking ball Donald is. But Donald is making a name for himself on the all time list right now.
He was living in the backfield on pass and run plays.
The biggest question was why?
Seems pretty obvious that with adequate edge containment, and a fresh rotation on the DL, Williams can be the finisher so many have been clamoring for.
He's not the individual wrecking ball Donald is. But Donald is making a name for himself on the all time list right now.
Problem is, Williams ain't making much less per year than Donald right now.
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In comment 15412221 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 15412213 AcidTest said:
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
But it’s all connected. They could have paid an average DT salary to someone else and invested the rest of Williams cap hit in players who can actually get to the passer.
I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.
Of course, not being able to sign a good FA pass rusher doesn't mean we should have resigned Williams. I was OK with the contract given it's relatively short length, but would have been fine letting him go as well. But as others have noted, that was never going to happen. DG had to resign him to justify the draft capital he spent to get him.
I also think overpaying Williams was less problematic than signing all of Booker, Golladay, Rudolph, Jackson, and Odenigbo, the last of whom was cut. A good case can be made that none should have been signed.
Therein lies the entire point of this debate.
If he's being treated like an average player by opposing defenses, that means he is an average player.
And he gets paid top dollar.
See the problem?
So far the arguments in LW's defense are that he's the best defensive player on the team (hello EXTREMELY low bar), that he had some tackles and sacks recently (how nice), and that he gets double-teamed a lot (check the chart).
Even if all of those things are true (they're not), he's STILL not worth what we paid him.
The truth is that LW had DG over a barrel when it came time to negotiate his current deal. LW (and his agent) knew that if he walked and ended up signing elsewhere, it would make DG look even worse in that he wasted trade capital. DG, being the reactionary doofus that he is, paid LW top DE money, not because that's what he's worth in the NFL, but because he had to save face.
Playing in the position that LW plays, there is simply no way that he will earn the money in his contract. And that unfortunately sets LW up to fail as a player here.
I agree with post 💯. And I’m always happy to kick Dave’s old man nuts for being such an arrogant and ruinous buffoon. I spilled much ink here on the idiotic LW trade which I maintain was the worst NFL trade I’ve ever seen. But once Getty overpaid, and we all knew he would, the course was set. And now, I don’t think LW is playing poorly as much as he’s just not playmaker.
I do think the rotation is a factor keeping guys fresh but it is also that the D puts itself in that position. Dallas ran the ball 39 times. That kills your front.
Bingo. Impact players with your premium picks on Defense.
If LW was making $10-12 million per for 4 years, like he would be, if DG hadn't made that stupid trade and signed him as a FA...he'd be a great deal and player. He's not a top 10 player at his position, but he's top 25...he's just paid like one of the top 10 because our GM is horrible at his job!
Keep fighting the good fight. The louder we get, the more likely we are to get... someone's attention.
And make no mistake about it - I will be cheering like hell for LW in every single game. And when he makes a good play, I will cheer even louder. I am completely comfortable in keeping my fan brain and my armchair GM brain compartmentalized.
But when the inevitable "LW played well, see, DG isn't that dumb" thread gets started in the future, all of you LW defenders feel free to return to this thread to remind yourselves:
He's STILL not worth what we paid for him.
I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.
Last year was actually a pretty good ER FA class. Matt Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Hassan Reddick, Trey Hendrickson, Bud Dupree all changed teams. Reddick is looking like a steal right now at 1 yr, $8M.
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I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.
Last year was actually a pretty good ER FA class. Matt Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Hassan Reddick, Trey Hendrickson, Bud Dupree all changed teams. Reddick is looking like a steal right now at 1 yr, $8M.
Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.
Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.
I get the concern about Reddick, coming off a career year when half his sacks were Daniel Jones, but Matt Judon would have been a good signing at 4/$54.
Williams has definitely been better vs. the run than the pass so far this year. PFF has his run grade slightly higher than last year but pass rush grade slightly lower but he's also rated as the best overall player on the D so far this year (overall they have him graded as the 17th/116 DL, Lawrence is 43rd, Johnson is 59th).
Out of all the problems with the defense though I don't think the IDL are as high up on the list. The secondary, LBs, and Edges seem to all be a much bigger concern from the eye test and PFF has Carter, Crowder, McKinney, and Ojulari rated at the bottom of their respective positions.
His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
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from the chart accompanying the tweet.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
I think it's starting to become clear that Eric in Li is big fan of LW to the exclusion of data.
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Reddick and Judon combined have a $2.7 million lower cap hit than Williams this year. Throw in Tomlinson and the total is only $3 million higher.
I get the concern about Reddick, coming off a career year when half his sacks were Daniel Jones, but Matt Judon would have been a good signing at 4/$54.
Forgot about Reddick. Just checked, he has 6.5 sacks already this season.
His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL, 17 game season.
That’s an OK season, but that’s a hard sell next year when he’s 13% of the cap.
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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.
And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.
As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.
The Giants are paying Williams like he’s a Frank Clark type player, when he’s closer to a Grady Jarret player.
I think we’re seeing Williams was in the perfect situation last year, and the Giants couldn’t replicate it.
The Giants are paying Williams like he’s a Frank Clark type player, when he’s closer to a Grady Jarret player.
I think we’re seeing Williams was in the perfect situation last year, and the Giants couldn’t replicate it.
Technically, Williams is a Grady Jarret-type, a 3-4 end/4-3 tackle. He just doesn't think so, remember last year when he filed a lawsuit with the Giants because he wanted to be listed as a defensive end?
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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:
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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.
And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.
As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.
I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.
Or is that Williams has (also) underperformed year over year?
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In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:
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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.
And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.
As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.
I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.
If he took money relative to his ability we would be better able to afford edge.. The overall investment we have in interior DL is way off based.. every other year we spend a high draft pick on a run stuffing DT who provides no pass rush.. 2 of our biggest investments are interior DL.. our highest edge person is a 2nd round rookie.. This is part of why DG fails.. Between stacking up similar wrs (till this year), Converting old players salary into bonus and not having an overall game plan to properly allocate assets, we aren't able to solve any of the problems this team has..
LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.
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In comment 15412596 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15412425 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15412373 Gatorade Dunk said:
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His double team rate isn't especially excusing, even according to that visualization.
excusing what? through 5 games he is having a season within the normal range of his career. so far it has not been a career year like last year but I don't think 10+ sacks is a normal expectation. Fletcher Cox has had just 2 years over 6.5 sacks out of 10 and I'd 100% take fletcher cox any day of the week even in his 5-6 sack years (which is what Williams is currently pacing towards right?).
Yes, he's absolutely in range of his career. But his career was underwhelming before last year's explosion of production.
And you're the one who wanted to contextualize his production against double-teams, and that hasn't been especially outlying.
As usual, the Giants paid a player based on his career year instead of his ordinary production. And now the salary cap is carrying the career year price while the on-field product is carrying the ordinary play.
I watch the Jets. Adams and Williams were far and away the two best players on that defense. Williams has always been a very good player, he's just not a game wrecker, at least not alone without talent around him. I feel pretty confident that if we had better (ANY???) edge rush he would be looking pretty dominant right now.
If he took money relative to his ability we would be better able to afford edge.. The overall investment we have in interior DL is way off based.. every other year we spend a high draft pick on a run stuffing DT who provides no pass rush.. 2 of our biggest investments are interior DL.. our highest edge person is a 2nd round rookie.. This is part of why DG fails.. Between stacking up similar wrs (till this year), Converting old players salary into bonus and not having an overall game plan to properly allocate assets, we aren't able to solve any of the problems this team has..
LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.
$12M is probably low, if we're being fair. But $17-18M seems about right, which would free up $5-6M that could have been used with the money spent on Adoree, to go get a true pass rush threat (like Judon or Reddick) to complement what LW does well. With the draft resources DG has committed to the CB position during his tenure, the fact that he has had to sign two premium FAs on top of all the draft choices is as big of a problem as the LW overpay.
I think this a team architecture issue.
When the Giants balanced the books before the season they spent the money on Jackson instead of Tomlinson.
Then when the offensive line depth cratered, they flipped Hill.
Hill and Tomlinson are legit starters, Johnson and Shelton are not.
Johnson is. He's also eating doubles and the run defense is averaging under 4 yards a pop when he's in.
Shelton is just not good anymore and is a liability when he's in.
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
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The context I interpret from the chart is that LW is being treated by opposing teams similarly to all of the same IDL he's been comp'd to for contract purposes (like Buckner, Jarrett, Cox, Clark, etc). His win rate is better than some of them and worse than some of them. His raw production is similar too.
Therein lies the entire point of this debate.
If he's being treated like an average player by opposing defenses, that means he is an average player.
And he gets paid top dollar.
See the problem?
do you think Buckner, Cox, Watt, Simmons, Clark, and Vea are also being treated like average players?
im pretty sure the median line on this chart is being skewed by the NT's like Lawrence who get doubled more by virtue of position/purpose.
Unless you think teams are intentionally treating Lawrence like more of a threat than Aaron Donald?
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
Williams' cap hit this year isn't the problem, his contract was designed to push the money into years 2 & 3. It is a little disingenuous to include that without mentioning his cap hits for years 2 & 3, which are prohibitive, as is the dead money if he is cut or traded.
He is a good player on a very bad contract.
Williams' cap hit this year isn't the problem, his contract was designed to push the money into years 2 & 3. It is a little disingenuous to include that without mentioning his cap hits for years 2 & 3, which are prohibitive, as is the dead money if he is cut or traded.
He is a good player on a very bad contract.
every contract in the NFL was set up that way last year because of the covid cap - including both Jackson/Ryan who were signed within the year. I used this year's $ because we are talking about this year's performance.
if you go by AAV the ratio of $ is likely similar (all of the DB's AAV's are higher than this year's cap # too). LW goes up to $20m and Bradberry goes up to 15m, Jackson goes up to 13m, Ryan goes up to 10m, etc.
he is a good player on a fair contract based on the most comps. whether the move works out or not is not entirely up to his individual performance because it's a team sport and the team result is what matters most. People called michael strahan overpaid for a lot of years before they were willing to write him a blank check to unretire.
im pretty sure the median line on this chart is being skewed by the NT's like Lawrence who get doubled more by virtue of position/purpose.
Unless you think teams are intentionally treating Lawrence like more of a threat than Aaron Donald?
I agree with you that the NTs skew the double team line a bit, and I would also argue that this is a relatively small sample size, but neither one of those things excuse LW's contribution to the defense vis a vis his contract.
That other players are also overpaid (Buckner, etc.), doesn't help this franchise whatsoever. Consider, instead, our cap situation compared to that of the Colts, if you want to use Buckner as a comparison. Sure, they may have overpaid Buckner, but they also have $55m in cap space next year. They're allowed a couple of fuckups here and there with that kind of room.
LW counts for $26.5m against the cap next year, by himself. There is no football argument on Earth that justifies that number.
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
On Jones: didn't the Chiefs move him to edge rusher this year?
LW is a good player and would shine if we could split his 23M between him and another DE.. Like SY said 2 years ago.. LW is worth 12M.. what he brings to the table isn't worth 23M.
LW got exactly what he was worth. But it was a market price we should not have paid considering what our needs were/are.
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by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
On Jones: didn't the Chiefs move him to edge rusher this year?
yup that's probably the reason.
I would argue that Williams isn't getting paid like Buckner, but Buckner is getting paid like Williams. DG overpaid, and set the rate for DT/DE hybrids at $21M/yr. It's still a gross overpay. $17M/yr is probably more like it.
The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).
Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.
The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?
I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.
- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson
- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari
- The secondary sucks
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..
Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..
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by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..
Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..
Is it possible that this might have to do with the coaching? Jackson is supposed to be a good man-to-man coverage corner but Graham has him playing in zone 10 yards off the ball like Bradberry.
The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).
Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.
The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?
I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.
- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson
- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari
- The secondary sucks
Johnson for Tomlinson has been an ok trade off relative to price.
dealing Hill and having to play Shelton has been a big downgrade.
and spending Tomlinson's $ on Jackson instead of a better edge rusher doesn't look good at all. there were other Cb's signed for less $ than Jackson so far this year, and obviously he hasn't been the impact player they thought he'd be. Casey Hayward for whatever reason continues to bounce around the league and play like a stud.
Those are the areas where I'd like a mulligan. I'm good with Williams, Galloday, Bradberry, Ryan, Martinez. I think they are all part of the solution (if there is one).
The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).
Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.
The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?
I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.
- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson
- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari
- The secondary sucks
I would argue that the only reason it's the going rate is because DG set the market. Buckner signed for the same money a year later. Chris Jones did sign a year earlier at about the same $$$, but he has nearly double the sack rate. Jonathan Allen is at $18M, and he is a better player.
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As a 3-year value, I don't dislike the contract. Three years of premium interior pass rush for 61M is the going rate.
The comps to Buckner and Jones are the right ones -- guys who are a good bet to be close to a double digit sacks, 10 TFL, 30+ pressures a year (and that's on a 16 game season).
Williams is on pace for a 5 sack, 20 pressure, 7 TFL (17 game season). Whether his contemporaries are having an off year too isn't that relevant to me. That's not a 20M year.
The interesting question is why is the pass rush and run defense are projecting to be so much worse this year?
I think a good place to start is the DL rotation, poor edge containment, and bad secondary play.
- The Giants bricked out Hill and Tomlinson, bona fide starters and bricked in Danny Shelton and Raymond Johnson
- Sheard and Frackrell are more reliable than Carter and Ojulari
- The secondary sucks
I would argue that the only reason it's the going rate is because DG set the market. Buckner signed for the same money a year later. Chris Jones did sign a year earlier at about the same $$$, but he has nearly double the sack rate. Jonathan Allen is at $18M, and he is a better player.
Buckner was traded/signed in March 2020.
Chris Jones was extended in July 2020.
Leonard Williams signed in March 2021.
jonathan allen had 2 sacks in 16 games last year (and 8 total in his previous 31 games). he's on track to having a career year this year and he's still not that far off Leonard Williams on the chart this thread is based on.
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In comment 15413160 Eric on Li said:
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by raw metrics Williams has been more productive (solo tackles, sacks, tfl)
by PFF grade he's currently rated better (76.4 vs 68.8)
by the chart above they are pretty close on double team rate (williams doubled a little more)
and pass rush win rate (buckner's PFF pass rush grade is higher than Williams, Williams run grade is a lot higher than buckners)
all of the above is basically true for Chris Jones too - who was the other near exact comp to Williams - but I don't believe he's on the chart above (presumably because he's missed a game?).
when evaluating why a team or unit of the team (the defense) is failing, typically the most productive player isn't the place to start. especially in cases where there are units that are performing significantly worse (the LBs) and other groups that are even more heavily invested in underperforming (the secondary).
Williams' cap hit this year is 11m. The far bigger ROI issue has been the near $30m in the secondary - Bradberry (~10m), Peppers (~7m), Jackson (~6m), Ryan (~4m), McKinney (~2m). The defense was built in the style of Baltimore and New England and it's the back 8 that are not living up to their end.
LW's cap hit will be a problem the next 2 years.. with almost no chance at a bailout or him being released.. And yes he is our best defensive player.. but that shouldn't be the case..
Don't even get me started on Adoree.. That dude was dumped by a team with defensive problems and hopes of super bowl run.. He wasn't traded.. meaning no one wanted him at that price.. then we figured we pay him more than what Titans contract was for as if he is a good corner.. Nobody dumps a good corner even if they are overpaid.. that doesn't happen.. Just like we shouldn't dump LW.. simply because he is a little overpaid..
Is it possible that this might have to do with the coaching? Jackson is supposed to be a good man-to-man coverage corner but Graham has him playing in zone 10 yards off the ball like Bradberry.
No the points I made were clear in pointing out that he isn't being misused.. he just isn't any good.. If he was good man to man.. there would be a team willing to pay him 13M and trade a 5th round pick for him.. Titans tried and got no one to bite..
20: 19 Tackles, 4 TFL, 4 QB Hits, 2.0 Sacks
21: 26 Tackles, 2 TFL, 4 QB Hits, 1.5 Sacks
also has more pressures this year than last year through 5 games
2020: 4
2021: 6
I get not wanting to pay a lot for a non-elite (Donald level) player. I think that's wrong and myopic but I get it. That's separate from evaluating how Williams has played so far. Any stats I've seen are along the lines of his very consistent prior career. And in terms of impact they don't win the NO game without his 4th down stop and the holding penalty he drew to take the long TD pass off the board.
He's a lightning rod for obvious reasons but he's also clearly 1 of the best and most reliable players on the team. Which is why he cost what he did.
You're not helping yourself here! :)
You're not helping yourself here! :)
if you think he's an average DT you don't know what an average DT is.
These types of misplays happen when you're trying to microwave your roster into a contender.