Ranks 50th out of 62 in pass rush win rate, while only being double teamed at about league average (link). So he’s not getting pressures or even being double teamed that much.
@sethwalder
Just noticed Leonard Williams ranks 50th in pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle out of 62 qualifiers. |
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Another waste of a jersey.
Williams has definitely been better vs. the run than the pass so far this year. PFF has his run grade slightly higher than last year but pass rush grade slightly lower but he's also rated as the best overall player on the D so far this year (overall they have him graded as the 17th/116 DL, Lawrence is 43rd, Johnson is 59th).
Out of all the problems with the defense though I don't think the IDL are as high up on the list. The secondary, LBs, and Edges seem to all be a much bigger concern from the eye test and PFF has Carter, Crowder, McKinney, and Ojulari rated at the bottom of their respective positions.
And he clearly paired very well with Tomlinson.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
The larger problem is the edge players aren't getting it done behind him, that's the engine of a 3-4, and we're rolling a four-cylinder out there.
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from the chart accompanying the tweet.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
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In comment 15412132 Eric on Li said:
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from the chart accompanying the tweet.
What's the context for double teams you'd be looking for out of curiosity?
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Looks to be 15 players, or a third of DTs, that get double teamed the same or more and have a higher pass rush win rate.
Williams is the 6th highest paid lineup and making $25 million.
The larger problem is the edge players aren't getting it done behind him, that's the engine of a 3-4, and we're rolling a four-cylinder out there.
My sense last year LW was allowed to free lance and pin his ears back a lot, because Frackrell, Sheard, Martinez others were reliable edge sealers.
Wouldn't be surprised if the approach is more containment versus busting the pocket with the talent around him now.
id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Correct. Hargarve best but not doubled as much. Donald true interior beast.
My only somewhat disappointment with the Big Cat this season is his lack of big plays in big spots. And I could say the same thing for the entire defense. I keep waiting for him to take over a game but he doesn’t really do that very often. Really, it was a surprise when he did take over takes last year. Williams isn’t have a bad season he’s just not a guy who makes a lot of impact plays. Part of that, probably most, is because he plays a position that doesn’t usually have a flashy impact. Not to say the position isn’t important, it certain is, or that there can’t be plays made from the IDL, just look at AD and you know they can. But it’s not really a flashy position.
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Nope, you are correct. Williams seems to get double-teamed exactly average in comparison to other DTs and still has one of the lowest win rates. I'm not sure if Eric from LI thinks this is supposed to make Williams look better or not, because it surely does not.
OTOH it really gives more evidence to show how dominant Aaron Donald is. Jesus.
From the Sy56 review warts and all: "DAL averaged 5.2 yards per carry and while some of that will be put on the defensive line, most of the blame should be placed on the guys in the next position group. Leonard Williams had 6 tackles, a half-sack, and a pressure. He had a dumb personal foul penalty late in the game where he couldn’t hide his frustration. Dexter Lawrence was hot and cold. He finished with 3 tackles. The glaring negative I have was the result of him facing off against DAL right guard Zack Martin. Martin, one of the best in the game still, abused Lawrence when they were on an island. That is a red flag for me. Lawrence did get him on one pass rush but otherwise, he looked overmatched.
Yes, Leonard is loafing because of his contract. What a bunch of embarrassingly stupid comments.
I know Tomlinson has been talked about ad nauseum, but maybe he helped free up Dex to make plays as well as Williams. Dex seems to be more the voice on that Dline now too. Tomlinson was a team CPT for a reason.
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id assume players who get double teamed more often are more likely to have lower win rates than players who don't right?
Maybe I'm reading the chart wrong. Isn't the top right quadrant players who are double team a lot and still win a lot?
Yes - and that's why it's the least crowded quadrant.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
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is Dexter.
I know Tomlinson has been talked about ad nauseum, but maybe he helped free up Dex to make plays as well as Williams. Dex seems to be more the voice on that Dline now too. Tomlinson was a team CPT for a reason.
version of this chart. Was Tomlinson maybe eating up more double teams to allow Lawrence to win more? Has Lawrence gotten doubled more this year and been less effective?
Tomlinson didn't play much in pass rush situations so I kind of doubt it, but would be curious to see the numbers.
Looks to be 15 players, or a third of DTs, that get double teamed the same or more and have a higher pass rush win rate.
Williams is the 6th highest paid lineup and making $25 million.
Big Leonard's money should have always been somewhere around Grady Jarret, Cam Heyward, maybe Kenny Clark. That is his normal performance comps.
Or he should have gone into a career in negotiations...
according to the graph Dexter is being double teamed 70% of the time. only a couple DT's in the league are double teamed more often (if you believe that graph is accurate).
i don't know if it's a scheme change or what, but the entire unit is underperforming, it's not just one guy. something on that side of the ball is really rotten with this team
I think this a team architecture issue.
When the Giants balanced the books before the season they spent the money on Jackson instead of Tomlinson.
Then when the offensive line depth cratered, they flipped Hill.
Hill and Tomlinson are legit starters, Johnson and Shelton are not.
The data says otherwise.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
The over/under pay is a valid topic.
I am just wondering what's misleading about the chart.
If you want the biggest likely difference between this year's D and last year's:
The Giants got Honeymoon years from expensive UFA's in Bradberry, Martinez & Logan Ryan, and huge efforts from Williams and Tomlinson in contract years.
Those 5 things are gone now. And on top of that, Graham benched a SS (Peppers) who played well for him last year for a guy (McKinney) who stinks.
I think most posters acknowledge that LW is playing well, it's just that in his position and given the personnel around him, he isn't measuring up to his contract value. That's not his fault, it's Gettleman's.
Which is one reason many of us hated the trade, it would force DG to overpay to save face.
So far the arguments in LW's defense are that he's the best defensive player on the team (hello EXTREMELY low bar), that he had some tackles and sacks recently (how nice), and that he gets double-teamed a lot (check the chart).
Even if all of those things are true (they're not), he's STILL not worth what we paid him.
The truth is that LW had DG over a barrel when it came time to negotiate his current deal. LW (and his agent) knew that if he walked and ended up signing elsewhere, it would make DG look even worse in that he wasted trade capital. DG, being the reactionary doofus that he is, paid LW top DE money, not because that's what he's worth in the NFL, but because he had to save face.
Playing in the position that LW plays, there is simply no way that he will earn the money in his contract. And that unfortunately sets LW up to fail as a player here.
The 2018 draft is killing the defense. Baker, Carter, Xman. They had to spend big money to replace Baker which could of been used elsewhere.
The LB's are killing the defense.
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
The 2018 draft is killing the defense. Baker, Carter, Xman. They had to spend big money to replace Baker which could of been used elsewhere.
The LB's are killing the defense.
Baker and Ximines were drafted in 2019.
My guess is he will end the year with enough of meaningless sacks, say 5 or so, that the story here will be "Leonard Williams is not the problem".
Paying top-shelf money for a few good players, and good money for average players is bad business...
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In comment 15412213 AcidTest said:
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
But it’s all connected. They could have paid an average DT salary to someone else and invested the rest of Williams cap hit in players who can actually get to the passer.
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Yes - and that's why it's the least crowded quadrant.
It seems clear this thread is the next in the long line of attempts to make the case that Williams is overrated and/or overpaid - which I've never agreed with because pretty much since he's arrived here he's been the best defensive player on the team. This year included. This chart doesn't necessarily tell me he's overpaid or overrated any more than it would for Fletcher Cox, Kenny Clark, or Jeffrey Simmons who each place right near him - and each of whom I'd be happy to have on the NYG were it feasible.
The over/under pay is a valid topic.
I am just wondering what's misleading about the chart.
There is nothing misleading about the chart because it shows both inputs (win rate + double team rate) - I said it is misleading to show the win rate without the appropriate double team context.
The context I interpret from the chart is that LW is being treated by opposing teams similarly to all of the same IDL he's been comp'd to for contract purposes (like Buckner, Jarrett, Cox, Clark, etc). His win rate is better than some of them and worse than some of them. His raw production is similar too.
The guys doubled at a higher rate than Donald (including Lawrence) seem to be space eaters specifically playing a role designed to occupy double teams - and imo distort the chart a little bit at least in terms of where the median line lands on the horizontal axis.
He was living in the backfield on pass and run plays.
The biggest question was why?
Seems pretty obvious that with adequate edge containment, and a fresh rotation on the DL, Williams can be the finisher so many have been clamoring for.
He's not the individual wrecking ball Donald is. But Donald is making a name for himself on the all time list right now.
He was living in the backfield on pass and run plays.
The biggest question was why?
Seems pretty obvious that with adequate edge containment, and a fresh rotation on the DL, Williams can be the finisher so many have been clamoring for.
He's not the individual wrecking ball Donald is. But Donald is making a name for himself on the all time list right now.
Problem is, Williams ain't making much less per year than Donald right now.
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In comment 15412221 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 15412213 AcidTest said:
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a 3-4 most of the pressure is supposed to come from the OLBs, not the DEs. We have no OLBs that provide pressure. Somebody said Ximines doesn't have a sack in his last 30 games. Our OLBs also don't set the edge.
LW and DL are constantly fighting through a mass of bodies. They can push the pocket backwards, but QBs will simply escape to one side or the other because there is no "pincer" effect from the OLBs to prevent them from doing so. Teams are also running wide to get away from LW and DL. Dallas is a perfect example.
The problem is you don’t pay space eaters $25 million. You pay guys that much who are very good to elite at getting to the QB. They paid Williams off of his 11.5 sacks last year, thinking anything else is naive.
There's no question they paid Williams because of his 11.5 sacks last year. I would have been fine not resigning him for what he got, and said so at that time. But the bigger problem isn't that we overpaid for Williams, it's that we have no edge rushing OLBs. Williams would be a lot more effective if we did, which would make his contract less onerous.
But it’s all connected. They could have paid an average DT salary to someone else and invested the rest of Williams cap hit in players who can actually get to the passer.
I'm not sure about that last part. High quality FA pass rushers are insanely expensive, and I can't remember if any were even available last offseason. Those players tend to get resigned by their own teams, which means that they have to be drafted. DG has been here four years, and hasn't drafted any.
Of course, not being able to sign a good FA pass rusher doesn't mean we should have resigned Williams. I was OK with the contract given it's relatively short length, but would have been fine letting him go as well. But as others have noted, that was never going to happen. DG had to resign him to justify the draft capital he spent to get him.
I also think overpaying Williams was less problematic than signing all of Booker, Golladay, Rudolph, Jackson, and Odenigbo, the last of whom was cut. A good case can be made that none should have been signed.
Therein lies the entire point of this debate.
If he's being treated like an average player by opposing defenses, that means he is an average player.
And he gets paid top dollar.
See the problem?