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2017 Defense vs 2021 Defense

BH28 : 10/14/2021 12:29 pm
Our defensive regression this year reminds me of what happened in 2017. In both 2016 and 2020 we had top 10 defenses in points allowed but in 2017 that cratered and it is also cratering this year.

Weirdly similar in that 2016/2020 we brought in FAs to shore up the defense, it seemed to work and then regression the next year. In trying to figure out that the hell happened, our sack rates are down which seem to be the major contributing cause.

In 2017 we had a 4-3 and lost Hankins to FA. JPP and Vernon production was the same. In 2021, we lost Tomlinson to FA and it seems to be affecting our ability create pressure up the middle.

Are the Giants underestimating the impact some of the these big men have on our ability to generate pressue? They might not have the 'stats' but they sure seem to be able to allow others to play better.

I am sure there are multiple reasons for the regression and this may or may not be part of the issue but something I noticed when trying to figure out what's going on.
Year to year  
JB_in_DC : 10/14/2021 12:52 pm : link
Offensive performance seems to be a lot stickier than defensive. Washington was a Top 3 Defense by DVOA last year, and this year they're bottom 5 by the same metric. An even worse drop off than us. They had no significant personnel losses that I can see, and its still Rivera's defense so this can't be blamed on scheme or a DC getting poached. Pitt was #1 last year and they're bottom half through 5 weeks this year, but it appears they lost 4 defensive starters.

Giants defensive decline is a bit easier to understand than WFT's at least. Giants last year struggled to get off the field because they often didn't get to QBs fast enough. They're defense looked good from 1000 feet, but if you look at pace-adjusted stats, they were only middle of the pack.
Subtract a career-year performance from Leonard Williams, and they're worse than that this year - plus they're not stopping the run. You can blame that on scheme (less plus one boxes) and Blake and DT being gone in any combination you want.
RE: Year to year  
chuckydee9 : 10/14/2021 1:48 pm : link
In comment 15413341 JB_in_DC said:
Quote:
Offensive performance seems to be a lot stickier than defensive. Washington was a Top 3 Defense by DVOA last year, and this year they're bottom 5 by the same metric. An even worse drop off than us. They had no significant personnel losses that I can see, and its still Rivera's defense so this can't be blamed on scheme or a DC getting poached. Pitt was #1 last year and they're bottom half through 5 weeks this year, but it appears they lost 4 defensive starters.


There is a lot of evidence that points in this direction that its hard to predict defense year over year and that the difference between great defense and bad defense isn't as much as great and bad offenses.. hence its much more prudent to spend resources on offense than defense..
Interesting thread  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/14/2021 2:18 pm : link
I am sure you can have some deviations based on a lot of factors. Injuries, schedules, QB's played (back ups versus starters), team tanking or quitting on a coach, etc.

I look at the secondary as really hard to play and can be the most impacted by variables. I think the best course is to control the lines, win first downs, control the run and try to get pressure in longer down and distance scenarios.
RE: Interesting thread  
BH28 : 10/14/2021 3:40 pm : link
In comment 15413543 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
I am sure you can have some deviations based on a lot of factors. Injuries, schedules, QB's played (back ups versus starters), team tanking or quitting on a coach, etc.

I look at the secondary as really hard to play and can be the most impacted by variables. I think the best course is to control the lines, win first downs, control the run and try to get pressure in longer down and distance scenarios.


On that front, you could debate what would have been more impactful: signing Adoree Jacoson or retaining Tomlinson?

Surprised that a guy like DG spent the money in the secondary rather than the line.

A great pass rush can make an average secondary look very good. Is Bradberry's regression simply due to the fact that the Giants are getting to the Qb as often as they did last year?
RE: RE: Year to year  
GMen72 : 10/14/2021 3:46 pm : link
In comment 15413473 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
In comment 15413341 JB_in_DC said:


Quote:


Offensive performance seems to be a lot stickier than defensive. Washington was a Top 3 Defense by DVOA last year, and this year they're bottom 5 by the same metric. An even worse drop off than us. They had no significant personnel losses that I can see, and its still Rivera's defense so this can't be blamed on scheme or a DC getting poached. Pitt was #1 last year and they're bottom half through 5 weeks this year, but it appears they lost 4 defensive starters.




There is a lot of evidence that points in this direction that its hard to predict defense year over year and that the difference between great defense and bad defense isn't as much as great and bad offenses.. hence its much more prudent to spend resources on offense than defense..


KC Chiefs might disagree? A terrible defense keeps all those expensive offensive assets on the sidelines watching the opposing offense move up and down the field.
RE: RE: Interesting thread  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/14/2021 3:54 pm : link
In comment 15413626 BH28 said:
Quote:
In comment 15413543 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


I am sure you can have some deviations based on a lot of factors. Injuries, schedules, QB's played (back ups versus starters), team tanking or quitting on a coach, etc.

I look at the secondary as really hard to play and can be the most impacted by variables. I think the best course is to control the lines, win first downs, control the run and try to get pressure in longer down and distance scenarios.



On that front, you could debate what would have been more impactful: signing Adoree Jacoson or retaining Tomlinson?

Surprised that a guy like DG spent the money in the secondary rather than the line.

A great pass rush can make an average secondary look very good. Is Bradberry's regression simply due to the fact that the Giants are getting to the Qb as often as they did last year?


I am not a DG can do know wrong guy but as I have consistently said he supports his coaching staffs. All the resources to the secondary does not seem to be DG's DNA. Ryan, Jackson, McKinney (ties to Judge) and then all the linebackers as well who are "versatile with special teams in mind" seem like the coaching staffs doing. Add in Shelton another Judge connection. Martinez (Graham connection). All the secondary resources is very Belichick like.




DG also really liked Chubb  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/14/2021 3:58 pm : link
and it was hard passing on the DE that went to Jax. So he certainly values it and seeing how much the Giants won and why when he was here you can understand why.

It's why I never have believed the idea that all decisions are his nor does he have that type of influence.
RE: DG also really liked Chubb  
Angel Eyes : 10/15/2021 8:20 am : link
In comment 15413646 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
and it was hard passing on the DE that went to Jax. So he certainly values it and seeing how much the Giants won and why when he was here you can understand why.

It's why I never have believed the idea that all decisions are his nor does he have that type of influence.

If he values the pass rush, why did he pass on Chubb and barely make any moves to fix the pass rush for the next few years?
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