As I did a deeper dive into how the Giants were potentially leaving points on the board I was shocked at what I found.
It all started looking at yards per play,
where they rank 9th in the NFL then It all started looking at yards per play
points per play where they rank 22nd
So why is that I said? Not turnover margin because they are
+.02 per game or 12th in the league or
penalties per game where they are 10th
How about red zone efficiency? Well, that's the start
30th in the league at 40%
And this is where I start to say WTF JJ. Because if you look at the only two teams below us and the two teams above us you see a disturbing trend when combined with
football outsiders yards and points a drive as well as
red zone attempts per game.
The 28th ranked team in red zone efficiency the Jets convert 45.45% on 2.2 attempts per game. Averaging 24.11 (31st) yards a drive and 1.02 (32nd) points a drive.
The 29th ranked team in red zone efficiency the Broncos, convert 42.11% on 3.8 attempts per game. Averaging 36.2 (12) yards a drive and 2.02 (21) points a drive.
The 30th ranked team in red zone efficiency the Giants, convert 40.00% on 3 attempts per game. Averaging 39.92 (4) yards a drive and 2.18 (17) points a drive.
The 31st ranked team in red zone efficiency the Pats, convert 37.50% on 3.2 attempts per game. Averaging 29.63 (26) yards a drive and 1.73 (26) points a drive.
The 32nd ranked team in red zone efficiency the Colts, convert 36.84% on 3.8 attempts per game. Averaging 32.43 (21) yards a drive and 1.9 (24) points a drive.
That's right ladies and gentleman. Two teams are worse than us in the red zone and have offenses that statistically are far worse at moving the ball, yet they somehow get into the red zone more than us. Think that has anything to do with how conservative of a game we call? I do.
Not to mention, when you watch the more modern teams in a 3rd and 5, many of them will do things like call a run more often because they know they intend to go for it on 4th down and are playing it all the way through expecting 4 downs. This cannot be underestimated in the strategic advantages of wielding expected points per play well. Especially the close games we've lost this year, it's kind of nauseating to see this information. I hope someday soon the team will start taking this stuff seriously because them and their "spreadsheets" aren't cutting it at this point.
The D is allowing longer drives than almost all other teams, and the O does well outside of the red zone and then sputters.
The D is allowing longer drives than almost all other teams, and the O does well outside of the red zone and then sputters.
The long drives are maddening. Seems every drive against us is 10+ plays and 7 min off the clock. Zero chance for the offense to find rhythm, especially with 3 and outs, and it tires out the D.
But the offense is just half the picture, the other problem is that we employ a "Bend but also Break at the end" defense where not only are the other team picking us apart for time consuming drives, but are putting 7 on the board at the end of their drives.
According to Pro-Football Reference, this is where our D ranks in some Drive and RZ stats...
7.0 plays per drive (32nd aka Dead Last)
41.6 yards per drive (31st)
3:17 avg. drive time (31st)
2.69 points per drive (29th)
We allow the 3rd most combined 3rd/4th down conversions in football and our 3rd/4th down conversion percentage ranks 3rd worst in the league.
So we give up very long drives that end in TDs and our offense is above average to pretty good at maintaining drives but can't convert that into TDs.
But the offense is just half the picture, the other problem is that we employ a "Bend but also Break at the end" defense where not only are the other team picking us apart for time consuming drives, but are putting 7 on the board at the end of their drives.
According to Pro-Football Reference, this is where our D ranks in some Drive and RZ stats...
7.0 plays per drive (32nd aka Dead Last)
41.6 yards per drive (31st)
3:17 avg. drive time (31st)
2.69 points per drive (29th)
We allow the 3rd most combined 3rd/4th down conversions in football and our 3rd/4th down conversion percentage ranks 3rd worst in the league.
So we give up very long drives that end in TDs and our offense is above average to pretty good at maintaining drives but can't convert that into TDs.
So I agree with this to an extent but it is also important to note the yards per play and points per play are even worse than the drive stats. (Which also control for the number)
No doubt the defense is making it harder on the offense to get in a rhythm gain confidence, etc. but the offense has plenty of yards vs. points efficiencies on their base level which have nothing to do with TOP or # of opportunities.
The D is allowing longer drives than almost all other teams, and the O does well outside of the red zone and then sputters.
Yeah I think this can't be ignored. But to me a very telling stat was the times in the red zone per game. Where teams that averaged significantly less yards outnumbered the Giants. Regardless the Giants should be doing a lot better on converting in the red zone than teams like New England at 5.1 yards per play and Indy at 5.6 yards per play when they are at 6.1.
For reference Philly has the same number of yards per play as the Giants and they have a red zone pct of 64.71% compared with the Giants at 40%...
I agree. That is why Jones only has 4 passing TDs. We run the ball more.
I think some of the red zone issues are the OL but definitely a big part is the conservative nature. Look at the end of the WFT game. Run Barkley up the gut against WFT's strength (DT's) twice and I do not think that was Garrett. Judge has a big fear of DJ turning the ball over especially in big spots imo. Then he thinks his defense can stop other teams which has not played out. Very poor evaluation of your team's capabilities and limitations.
Regardless, good intel here. I'm sure our crack analytics staff is on it... ;)
I was looking at the Ravens staff the other day and I noticed an interesting position - Football Research Coach. Headed by by Daniel Stern. Not surprisingly, he went to Yale... ;)
I would guess he is direct access into Harbaugh's headset on game days...??
Bio - ( New Window )
in the red zone in particular I'd like to see the numbers on how their pass% of targets in the end zone. I would bet a lot it is very low.
as a real world example it is absolutely mind boggling that the Jets put up more points against Atlanta on 24 minutes of possession and with only 240 yards gained than this offense did in 31 minutes with 350 yards of offense. I mean just look at these 2 stat lines. How does the Zack Wilson team, with 64 rushing yards, end up scoring more touchdowns than the Jones team?
Jones - 25/36 266 yards (8 rushes, 39 yards) 50 QBR, 91 rtg
Wilson - 17/21 192 yards 1 INT (1 rush 3 yards) 18 QBR, 63 rtg
the answer is that on gameday, the way we manage games leaves points on the field. we try to play field position and we try to minimize mistakes, instead of just trying to outscore any mistakes that may happen.
I posted similar on our other thread but I wanted to point it out here because not sure you would have read.
Great job.
in the red zone in particular I'd like to see the numbers on how their pass% of targets in the end zone. I would bet a lot it is very low.
as a real world example it is absolutely mind boggling that the Jets put up more points against Atlanta on 24 minutes of possession and with only 240 yards gained than this offense did in 31 minutes with 350 yards of offense. I mean just look at these 2 stat lines. How does the Zack Wilson team, with 64 rushing yards, end up scoring more touchdowns than the Jones team?
Jones - 25/36 266 yards (8 rushes, 39 yards) 50 QBR, 91 rtg
Wilson - 17/21 192 yards 1 INT (1 rush 3 yards) 18 QBR, 63 rtg
the answer is that on gameday, the way we manage games leaves points on the field. we try to play field position and we try to minimize mistakes, instead of just trying to outscore any mistakes that may happen.
I think your last sentence nails it. The question is are they trying to limit mistakes because that's who they are as coaches or because of a lack lf confidence in the personnel?
I guess 2 broken clocks can line up once in a while.
Quote:
I think the issue is a judge/garrett mentality thing. they want to run an offense that tries to possess the game instead of an offense that wins the game. they do not hunt for touchdowns.
in the red zone in particular I'd like to see the numbers on how their pass% of targets in the end zone. I would bet a lot it is very low.
as a real world example it is absolutely mind boggling that the Jets put up more points against Atlanta on 24 minutes of possession and with only 240 yards gained than this offense did in 31 minutes with 350 yards of offense. I mean just look at these 2 stat lines. How does the Zack Wilson team, with 64 rushing yards, end up scoring more touchdowns than the Jones team?
Jones - 25/36 266 yards (8 rushes, 39 yards) 50 QBR, 91 rtg
Wilson - 17/21 192 yards 1 INT (1 rush 3 yards) 18 QBR, 63 rtg
the answer is that on gameday, the way we manage games leaves points on the field. we try to play field position and we try to minimize mistakes, instead of just trying to outscore any mistakes that may happen.
I think your last sentence nails it. The question is are they trying to limit mistakes because that's who they are as coaches or because of a lack lf confidence in the personnel?
I would contend it doesn't matter. Use the same Jet example above - how can anyone have confidence in the personnel on that offense? And here's another example - Sean Payton was aggressive on 4th downs but generally very tight in his playcalling against us because of Jameis tendency to turn the ball over. IMO he did us a lot of favors by generally playing pretty conservative and taking that 1 gimmick shot with Taysom Hill instead of more deep shots with Jameis (who completed the bomb that got called back because of the hold on Leonard Williams).
I would also point to the Browns game last year - none of us had any confidence McCoy could win that game. And Kichens came out and attempted the most downfield throws of any game last season and got the team in the red zone a bunch of times. They also went for it on 4th downs because they knew FGs weren't going to cut it and big plays were going to be few and far between so they needed their shots in the Red Zone. They didn't score and they obviously didn't win but they did play to win. That game is still one of the biggest proof points of the flaws in Garrett's playcalling being independent of Judge.
You may not like how the coaches are deploying the players, but the players also need to show they can hold up when called upon. And they haven’t.
An opinion:
They don't have the team to be competent hunters.
Vs Dallas they have their number 1 Wr hurt pretty early. They have their number 1 RB hurt. They have Shep and Slayton out and you think they can be hunters?
And how long do you think that OL is going to hold up? Early on every time Jones went back to pass he was getting hit.
What’s scary is his close we are to being 0-5.
I'm sure my blood pressure will be lower when I go into my end of year check up lol
Your last point is the most important one. And what my concern was when they brought in JJ. Like can a coach really tech an organization about technology? I guessed no and it looks like I was right.
This falls 100% on management. They need to get the right tools in the hands of their front office and coaches and they have the best talent pool in maybe the world and they are still using spreadsheets. Really shameful stuff
Regardless, good intel here. I'm sure our crack analytics staff is on it... ;)
I was looking at the Ravens staff the other day and I noticed an interesting position - Football Research Coach. Headed by by Daniel Stern. Not surprisingly, he went to Yale... ;)
I would guess he is direct access into Harbaugh's headset on game days...?? Bio - ( New Window )
They are world class from everything I hear. And like you absolutely need to have someone explain the game theory. Explainable AI is becoming more commonplace and if the systems work as the tech exists for them too you should be able to do something like say what if we ran off guard or off tackle what would our expected yards be? If they are doing their simulations properly you could get a min and max result too. You could go into the model and essentially see what the risk factors were (IE on 3rd and 10 what OL is likely to need the most help in this play call we are thinking about)
The Giants can't even get timeouts and 4th down conversions right. They luddite was always tongue in cheek but they do seem to have at least a small resentment of technology