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Cap Hits, Resource Allocation, and Expectations Next Year

christian : 10/15/2021 3:53 pm
On the books right now the top 5 cap hits make up just about 50% of the total 2022 cap -- Golladay, Jackson, Williams, Bradberry, Martinez.

Two things right of the bat:

1) that's a snapshot in time, and the Giants actually have to move out some of that money to operate next year

2) a lot of the teams are top heavy, so this isn't that unusual

My question: do you think that's the foundation for a deep playoff run the next two years?
the foundation if there is one is the recent top picks  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 3:58 pm : link
Barkley
Jones
Lawrence
Thomas
Toney

looking at that list, you could make an argument that the 4 offensive players have been the 4 most productive players on the team this year.

Golladay and Williams have also been productive and may have a claim to being included in the list above.

Bradberry and Jackson need to step up. Martinez got hurt but was playing ok.
.  
Go Terps : 10/15/2021 4:01 pm : link
There isn't a high impact player in that group. Further, two of those players (Martinez and Williams) are at non-premium positions.

There's no deep playoff run there the next two years. There's no playoffs at all.
 
christian : 10/15/2021 4:09 pm : link
I think Lawrence has been a pedestrian first round pick, and nearing a disappointment. I don’t see how he projects to be foundational player.

Barkley’s availability is becoming such a factor, I view his contributions as almost a bonus at this point.

I can buy Thomas, Toney, and Jones on the list.
Terps ask yourself these 2 questions  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 4:11 pm : link
In comment 15414787 Go Terps said:
Quote:
There isn't a high impact player in that group. Further, two of those players (Martinez and Williams) are at non-premium positions.

There's no deep playoff run there the next two years. There's no playoffs at all.


1. what premium position players make it to UFA and get 2nd contracts with teams that don't draft them?

2. how many players from the 2018 draft and on have extended yet?

this exercise tells us only 1 thing and we already knew it - there were no "foundation pieces" drafted between 2012-2018 except OBJ.

we can claim whatever we want but none of us know with certainty how the careers of Barkley, Jones, Thomas, Lawrence, and Toney will go here. Any of them could be gone or injured by next year or have their numbers retired.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 4:14 pm : link
In comment 15414796 christian said:
Quote:
I think Lawrence has been a pedestrian first round pick, and nearing a disappointment. I don’t see how he projects to be foundational player.

Barkley’s availability is becoming such a factor, I view his contributions as almost a bonus at this point.

I can buy Thomas, Toney, and Jones on the list.


No disagreement on either point but also doesn't make what I said untrue. If there is a foundation that's it.

(and to a lesser extent Ojulari, McKinney, Peart, Gates, etc)
Giants need to nail the 2022 draft  
JonC : 10/15/2021 4:16 pm : link
especially at the top. Crucial. Vital.
...  
BrettNYG10 : 10/15/2021 4:17 pm : link
No. They need to nail the 2022 picks to have a shot at the playoffs in 2022 or 2023.

I think the Giants might be in an even worse position than they were when DG took the job.
RE: ...  
Go Terps : 10/15/2021 4:20 pm : link
In comment 15414807 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
No. They need to nail the 2022 picks to have a shot at the playoffs in 2022 or 2023.

I think the Giants might be in an even worse position than they were when DG took the job.


There is no question they're in a worse place. It was all there for them in 2018. There's no Beckham to trade for first round picks, there's no high priced quarterback about to retire and come off the books, etc.
this is a silly comment  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 4:20 pm : link
In comment 15414807 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
No. They need to nail the 2022 picks to have a shot at the playoffs in 2022 or 2023.

I think the Giants might be in an even worse position than they were when DG took the job.


if only Jones and Thomas work out, which has looked to be the case so far, they are in an infinitely better position. Those are probably the 2 hardest and most important positions to fill.
RE: RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 4:23 pm : link
In comment 15414811 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 15414807 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


No. They need to nail the 2022 picks to have a shot at the playoffs in 2022 or 2023.

I think the Giants might be in an even worse position than they were when DG took the job.



There is no question they're in a worse place. It was all there for them in 2018. There's no Beckham to trade for first round picks, there's no high priced quarterback about to retire and come off the books, etc.


there's a low priced QB who will only have 1 year left after this year and could come off the roster in any number of ways by a theoretical new GM (trade, decline 5th year option, cut). How is having a higher priced QB coming off the books better?

oh, because you view Jones as an irredeemable anchor that is unquestionably not the guy but also unquestionably tied to the franchise regardless of performance?
 
christian : 10/15/2021 4:28 pm : link
It’s tough to think 5 guys tallying 100M in cap value, signed in the last two years aren’t the lead guys. These are young prime of their career vets.
Eric  
Go Terps : 10/15/2021 4:29 pm : link
It's not about Jones. The point is there is no huge lump sum of cap space about to open up like there was when Gettleman took the job in 2018. Jones is cheap now and next year looks tight up against the cap.

That's why a rookie contract at quarterback is such an advantage. In 2018 we were about to start that window. That's not where we are now. Right now we're supposed to be competing to make the playoffs and make noise in the playoffs. Instead we have a terrible roster and relatively free options to improve it.
*Relatively few  
Go Terps : 10/15/2021 4:29 pm : link
.
RE: this is a silly comment  
BrettNYG10 : 10/15/2021 4:35 pm : link
In comment 15414814 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15414807 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


No. They need to nail the 2022 picks to have a shot at the playoffs in 2022 or 2023.

I think the Giants might be in an even worse position than they were when DG took the job.



if only Jones and Thomas work out, which has looked to be the case so far, they are in an infinitely better position. Those are probably the 2 hardest and most important positions to fill.


I don't think Jones looks to work out right now. The offense has had below average production with him as QB - even if you blame the surrounding pieces, I don't see a path to meaningfully upgrade them outside the draft.

I struggle seeing a path to a really good offense - unless Jones develops into a top 12 QB (which I don't think he is right now).

I'm a big fan of Thomas and Toney. But I was a big fan of Odell and thought there were more moveable pieces on D when DG took over.
There’s something like 43 players under contract  
Pepe LePugh : 10/15/2021 4:35 pm : link
and almost no cap room left. There needs to be significant restructuring just to clear space for next year’s rookie pool.
UFAs include Engram, Price, Hernandez, Penny, Ross, Glennon, Peppers, Carter, Shelton and Johnson.

On the positive side, we have nine draft picks including 5 of the top 100. Since we don’t have the flexibility to sign FAs, including our own, we will be in line to add several more comp picks.

Personally I would roll the dice by minimizing restructures and restock thru the draft and a bit of dumpster diving next year.

Next year may not be great, but to answer your question, I think this would leave us in good position for success the following year, since we would have a solid core, and cap space to plug any holes.

Assuming of course, we don’t blow it in the drafts.
 
christian : 10/15/2021 4:36 pm : link
I like Jones, but I wouldn’t consider it nailing the position.

I think his ceiling is legitimate-to-good QB. Nailing it would be a very good-to-excellent QB.

I believe Thomas has the ceiling to a very good left tackle, I think Thomas was nailing the pick.

So let’s say the Giants checked the box with Jones, Thomas, and Toney. I’d really hope the top shelf UFAs would be excelling as well.
RE: …  
BrettNYG10 : 10/15/2021 4:46 pm : link
In comment 15414835 christian said:
Quote:
I like Jones, but I wouldn’t consider it nailing the position.

I think his ceiling is legitimate-to-good QB. Nailing it would be a very good-to-excellent QB.

I believe Thomas has the ceiling to a very good left tackle, I think Thomas was nailing the pick.

So let’s say the Giants checked the box with Jones, Thomas, and Toney. I’d really hope the top shelf UFAs would be excelling as well.


If Jones' ceiling is Kirk Cousins, that isn't good for the Giants.

I think it's better to have a flat out bust at the QB position than some average guy you talk yourself into thinking you can win with.

I'm not saying Jones is like that. But if Jones' TD production still sucks and the offense is still bottom third at year end, I'm going to be doubtful he is ever going to be above-average.
The Giants build a sport car  
rasbutant : 10/15/2021 5:06 pm : link
and then forgot to put gas in it.

Did it at the end of Eli's career and now repeating it with Jones.

Build the OLine, build it strong and build it deep. Get it from all avenues, it doesn't have to be 1st round picks but that is one place to start. And since they don't have FA dollars to spend next year, it is probably the most likely place for them to get it next year. Step #2, you can never have enough pass rushers.
I see very little impact from the list  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/15/2021 5:13 pm : link
I don't think Martinez and Bradberry will be on the team in two years. Hoping Jackson turns it around as he did miss most of camp. Galladay I see having a impact but the issue will be reliability.
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 5:36 pm : link
In comment 15414823 Go Terps said:
Quote:
It's not about Jones. The point is there is no huge lump sum of cap space about to open up like there was when Gettleman took the job in 2018. Jones is cheap now and next year looks tight up against the cap.

That's why a rookie contract at quarterback is such an advantage. In 2018 we were about to start that window. That's not where we are now. Right now we're supposed to be competing to make the playoffs and make noise in the playoffs. Instead we have a terrible roster and relatively free options to improve it.


they didn't have a lump sum of cap space in 2018 or any time in the near future until they got rid of Vernon, JPP, Jenkins. That's why they didn't tag Collins in 2018 and let him walk while being able to reclaim a 3rd rd comp pick despite maneuvering for Solder out of pure desperation.

2 of the 5 names Christian noted will be entering their walk year in March 2022 if there's a new GM (or they could save $20m by cutting those 2).

The other 3 would have just 2 years left (so cuttable the following the year in March 2023).

browsing OTC's 2022 tab all 5 contracts are tradeable with a minimum of $5m in cap savings day 1 btw.

and the new GM would have the 2 firsts.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-york-giants/ - ( New Window )
I’m likely wrong  
Joe Beckwith : 10/15/2021 6:05 pm : link
But I really have the feeling 1 of those cap eaters will not be a Giant next season.
It’s just a feeling based on this year’s performance thus far, even if they turn it around.
Brett and Christian  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 6:07 pm : link
I didn’t say Jones was “nailing it” or that he’s proven to be a franchise QB. I said IF he and Thomas work out those are 2 very big variables in the evaluation of this roster's foundation (both unmentioned in the OP).

at this moment I call BS on anyone who says with certainty he is or isn't the guy. We don't know either of those things with certainty yet so I think anyone portending that we do is mostly trying to validate their priors. It is fair to have high expectations in year 3 so I think we should see how the year finishes. We need to see more of what we saw in New Orleans from both Jones and the coaching staff, which I think we can all acknowledge without pretending that performance didn't look exactly like what everyone here is hoping for from a QB. For a variety of reasons (turnover reduction, more aggressiveness downfield) it's my opinion that this year has been a big step in the right direction but that can be just as wrong as the next guy. Especially if he can't stay on the field.
RE: I’m likely wrong  
Eric on Li : 10/15/2021 6:09 pm : link
In comment 15414916 Joe Beckwith said:
Quote:
But I really have the feeling 1 of those cap eaters will not be a Giant next season.
It’s just a feeling based on this year’s performance thus far, even if they turn it around.


pretty good odds of losing at least 1 big salary every offseason. if you look at the OTC page above and browse the frequency of trades in NFL today it would not be a shock to see someone like Jackson dealt off for a late round pick next year. Or flipped for a similarly priced player on another team at another position. Shepard and Barkley are 2 others in the top part of the cap table that could be moved.
Premature discussion  
Thegratefulhead : 10/15/2021 6:33 pm : link
Jones is showing signs of growth in year 3.

Thomas more so.

Golloday has potential, if he and Jones stay healthy and develop chemistry that could be solid.

Jones could also flop and Thomas could turn into Flowers.

Jon is right, we need to to nail the top of the draft.

Impact players.

I would consider 2 edge and let them compete.

You can't have enough pass rushers.
I go back and forth on whether corner is still...  
bw in dc : 10/15/2021 7:01 pm : link
a premium position, but let's assume it is. That's a lot of cap hit for two corners who are ordinary right now. So they are not part of the future foundation.

Unless the Mike is Ray Lewis, Martinez is not a foundation piece.

Unless LW suddenly morphs into Sapp/Donald, a DT is not a foundation position.

KG could be, but's let's see where he is at the end of the year.

Does Jones show ANY superstar qualities right now? No. Does he show he can be Dak-ish? I say no on that, too. So I don't see him - yet - as a piece to keep, either.

So I agree with those who say Thomas and Toney only.

A birt premature no?  
Bruner4329 : 10/15/2021 7:31 pm : link
5 games into this season and we are already discussing who to cut to create cap space. I mean can we wait another 6 weeks or so. Geez we have all off season for this BS. If you are a real fan concentrate on the games being played. You have the middle of winter to worry about restructuring the roster.
Comes down to the 22 draft  
WillVAB : 10/16/2021 1:29 am : link
They have a ton of picks. If they nail the draft the current resource allocation won’t matter.
Expectatiosn should be reasoanbly low  
giantstock : 10/16/2021 4:34 pm : link
On defense we have a completely awful LB crew. We have a completely awful NT. We have an underachieving Lawrence. And the cornerbacks, Logan and so far McKinney have all been underachieving. I don’t think Love has been but hardly difference-maker.

On offense our star RB is always hurt and is poor making decisions at locating holes. Our Tight Ends suck. Our number 1 receiver in Golladay so far seems to be always hurt as Shep has always been. And as for OL, we have one legit guy in Thomas and maybe Hernandez is okay? What is it that the Giants can rely on for next year at the OL?

The idea on both offense and defense is to dominate at certain portion of the game. Are the Giants close at being dominant in their front 7? What about our OL? Their OL is it a domain OL or close to being one?

I’ve defended Jones big time on here but I’ve always agreed if you can find someone better than him then do it. Until then – what’s his strength? It’s passing in the pocket. Why the hell then would anyone not want to get as much of a dominant OL for a young pocket passing QB? What the hell was Gettleman and Mara thinking?

For those of you that don’t even want 50-50 of OL vs Defense and you want primarily defense early and often, that’s fine too. Then those of you that want an open offense – what are you thinking? The QB is not elite at bets he is a bit above average this early in his career. The OL is average at best but imo it will suck. The RB is mostly hurt. The Tight Ends suck. And most of the WR’s get hurt. How the hell is that conducive to playing in an open offense?
The Giants now are like the Knicks in the early to mid 2000’s  
Sean : 10/16/2021 4:49 pm : link
This is the result of constant attempts at quick fixes. As opposed to opting for a rebuild in 2018 coming off of a 3-13 season, Mara & company opted for a quick fix. And here we are.
RE: The Giants now are like the Knicks in the early to mid 2000’s  
giantstock : 10/16/2021 6:30 pm : link
In comment 15415412 Sean said:
Quote:
This is the result of constant attempts at quick fixes. As opposed to opting for a rebuild in 2018 coming off of a 3-13 season, Mara & company opted for a quick fix. And here we are.


It was DG and ofc Mara. The below link says it all.

=================

https://thespun.com/nfl/nfc-east/new-york-giants/giants-gm-dave-gettleman-admits-he-made-a-mistake

"I thought we could do both at the same time and I was wrong,” Gettleman admitted on ESPN Radio, via Art Stapleton.

==================

When you act with such hubris in the manner he did - eventually the arrogance has consequences.

To believe you can do both is just mind-boggling for a team that it was so obvious they were going to suck.

And to further that, his comment also means because he wasn't rebuilding to start with, the ability of the Giants to rise up with young talent has been greatly hindered.
When you make the mistake of not rebuilding right away and as a result you take players that won’t help much in the future, those decisions “to-win-now” rather than rebuild have long term consequences.
RE: A birt premature no?  
DannyDimes : 10/17/2021 7:20 am : link
In comment 15414953 Bruner4329 said:
Quote:
5 games into this season and we are already discussing who to cut to create cap space. I mean can we wait another 6 weeks or so. Geez we have all off season for this BS. If you are a real fan concentrate on the games being played. You have the middle of winter to worry about restructuring the roster.


Yep, typical BBI BS crap speculation...
RE: RE: A birt premature no?  
christian : 10/17/2021 10:18 am : link
In comment 15415711 DannyDimes said:
Quote:
Yep, typical BBI BS crap speculation...


I mean, we are just three players from being a serious contender, right?

So your answer is yes to this thread?
RE: .  
LauderdaleMatty : 10/17/2021 10:28 am : link
In comment 15414787 Go Terps said:
Quote:
There isn't a high impact player in that group. Further, two of those players (Martinez and Williams) are at non-premium positions.

There's no deep playoff run there the next two years. There's no playoffs at all.



This is the issue w football. Sayings position is no premium is just stupid. Now he may not be worth the contract but if you had a Devin White a Zack Martin or a Quentin Nelson on this team instead of the guys they did draft this team would be better.


You can keep drafting lesser players and suck forever or stop w iv we paying lesser players just because they play a premium position. When you never draft well you will suck. That's the issue
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