Seems ridiculous (even for the Mets). Manager isn’t something that needs to be decided now. There is no “Bill Belichek” level ridiculous no-brainer to chase. It’s October!
Agree, it would be idiotic to hire a manager first
but here it goes anyway. shill or not they are named on the record quotes that beane didn't need to issue.
Quote:
“The only reason I would consider leaving what I’m doing now is because of Sandy Alderson and Steve Cohen,” the iconic executive vice president of the Oakland Athletics told SNY by phone from the Bay Area on Wednesday night.
That begged the question of why Beane removed himself from consideration in the Mets’ search. To him, the answer was simple: His family is more important than his career.
“Creating chaos in my children’s lives for my own ambition feels like a selfish thing to do,” Beane said.
Beane has twin girls entering the same Catholic high school that his wife attended. They are involved in sports and have built a life there.
either way theses quotes don't matter. none of the rumors matter. the only thing that matters is they get it right with whoever they do hire. Beane/Theo would have been moonshots and I think there was legitimately a chance they could have gotten one of them. Not asking would have been worse than asking and getting turned down. it makes the search harder to have to continue to look elsewhere but not impossible to still get right. Billy Beane: Working with Mets’ Sandy Alderson and Steve Cohen an 'amazing opportunity' - ( New Window )
last subject got messed up with the code it should read
was supposed to be the one guy with Sandy ties that would potentially come here. To act like him praising Sandy now is strange to say the least s that’s his mentor and he gave Bryn his first job.
dan we each wrote about 10k words today re: sandy being net +/-
and here's 1 of the top 3 candidates, not mine but some people's #1 dream candidate if I remember right, saying he considered the job in part because Sandy was here.
you are right there is nothing shocking or new in Beane's comments - which is why I've posted that Sandy is a net + ever since Cohen brought him back and separate from Beane specifically being a candidate. I doubt there's anyone he's as close with as Beane but he's been around and considered to be respected as much as just about anyone in MLB.
it is literally no different than how some viewed Sandy as a way to make Cohen more palatable to owners prior to the vote last year. people in baseball know and trust Sandy.
I suggested all along Beane was the one guy who maybe would have come. Not really sure what you expected him to say about his mentor and his former intern his mentors son? Something negative?
I suggested all along Beane was the one guy who maybe would have come. Not really sure what you expected him to say about his mentor and his former intern his mentors son? Something negative?
he could have said nothing and denied he had any interest elsewhere, the same way he has pretty much every offseason it's come up for 20 years. literally 2 weeks ago he was laughing off the rumors entirely like he hadn't even read them.
either way as I said it doesn't matter whether or not he almost came here or didn't. the only thing that matters is who they get. not who thought about coming here but didn't.
I have consistently stated and continue to think the content of what Beane put his name to - that Cohen/Alderson are appealing to work for - is true and roughly 10 million times more credible than the unattributed rumors about an Alderson family power grab. But the results of who they ultimately hire will either validate that or not far more than named or unnamed quotes. I thought Porter was a solid hire when they got him last year and I expect someone at least as good as that. Anything worse will be a failure.
We’ll see who they end up with and how true crazy rumors like Sandy hiring a manager before w POBO (Heyman) turn out to be
heyman is hit or miss but that one is particularly strange. so is the Melvin rumor. we met fans are always on edge and there's a big social media contingent that's gleeful at any piece of info they can get that can rile up the lolmets sentiment. and there are countless nick francona's we've never heard of who feel they've been wronged and are more than willing to give reporters the quote they want from "a source within the baseball world".
the most relevant data point (imo) for this year's search is last year's search. very few leaks got out during the process and it turned out there were some well established young executives in play who were nowhere on the media's radar.
we don't entirely know how good/bad they viewed their own decision after working with Porter for a few months (pre scandal) - but if they liked him I expect they will follow a similar approach and look for someone similar. Charismatic young exec with a background from one of the winning trees (Theo/LAD/TB/etc). Probably with a few more questions about text etiquette.
I’m banning myself from a single pessimistic Met comment for one week if the Knicks win this game. Self imposed
pretty sure you just guaranteed the reintroduction of Terry Collins as manager on Monday or Tuesday, 24-48 hours prior to naming Doug Melvin POBO with Bryn Alderson promoted to GM.
Bryn also announces Sanford Sernberg to backfill his AGM spot
I’m banning myself from a single pessimistic Met comment for one week if the Knicks win this game. Self imposed
pretty sure you just guaranteed the reintroduction of Terry Collins as manager on Monday or Tuesday, 24-48 hours prior to naming Doug Melvin POBO with Bryn Alderson promoted to GM.
All kidding aside Terry Collins is extremely nice, he used to go
To this bar in LIC called PJ Leahy’s and he was just one of the guys and while it was weird pretending I wasn’t kinda starstruck he was one of the nicest “celebrities” I’ve ever encountered. He remembered us when we saw him again. Not our names, but that we had met
All kidding aside Terry Collins is extremely nice, he used to go
To this bar in LIC called PJ Leahy’s and he was just one of the guys and while it was weird pretending I wasn’t kinda starstruck he was one of the nicest “celebrities” I’ve ever encountered. He remembered us when we saw him again. Not our names, but that we had met
he got a bad rep. I thought he made almost every right decision in the 2015 playoffs. He was better than Mattingly in the LAD series and it had an impact. Yes he should have pulled Harvey in the WS but in the moment EVERYONE wanted him to stay in. And they would have still gotten out of it if Duda made the throw home.
It was completely fair to try to find a new voice after 2017 but when it was clear early on Mickey wasn't playing with a full deck I would have fired him and pulled a jack mckeon bringing back Collins (pretty sure he was still in the org at that point).
was terrible with bullpen management and having "his guys" (pitchers and position players) but I admit I do every now and then watch the video clip after Syndergaard was ejected after throwing behind Chase Utley.
was terrible with bullpen management and having "his guys" (pitchers and position players) but I admit I do every now and then watch the video clip after Syndergaard was ejected after throwing behind Chase Utley.
One of the best manager blow ups.
generally agree but in that postseason he pushed all the right buttons. the 6 out game 5 save with Familia vs. LAD was particularly ballsy. I think he had him go for multi-inning saves in game 1 also. He got challenges right. He kept the them from losing their emotions after the Utley play (not just being pissed at the dirty play but remember Utley ended up getting called safe and scoring to flip the outcome of the game to make the series 1-1 instead of 0-2).
that series was decided by a very slim margin and ultimately got mattingly fired.
kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
Is Cast going to get a QO?
the only reason i'd not extend Conforto is resource allocation
I would not in a million years spend similar money on a similar player who hasn't played here before.
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
Is Cast going to get a QO?
Yes. He will have a pick attached. Same as Conforto.
kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
Is Cast going to get a QO?
Yes. He will have a pick attached. Same as Conforto.
Sorry.. same as Conforto assuming the Mets offer him a QO.
RE: the only reason i'd not extend Conforto is resource allocation
I would not in a million years spend similar money on a similar player who hasn't played here before.
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
I understand this line of thinking, I just don't understand getting a pick for Conforto, losing a pick for Castellanos when they are very, very similar players for their careers (production wise), like absurdly so. Is it just the excitement of a "new guy"?
as a hypothetical of the current resource allocation dilemma
rank the following contracts by the ones you'd most prefer to least.
a) Conforto 5 years 100-125m
b) Nimmo 4 years 70-90m (assuming a decent discount for early extension)
c) Stroman 5 years 100-125m
d) Baez 5 years 120m (Britton estimate from an article yesterday)
for me I think in order I'd go:
D, B, C, A. But Conforto and Stroman are a tie. I could flip a coin either way on that one.
RE: RE: the only reason i'd not extend Conforto is resource allocation
I would not in a million years spend similar money on a similar player who hasn't played here before.
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
I understand this line of thinking, I just don't understand getting a pick for Conforto, losing a pick for Castellanos when they are very, very similar players for their careers (production wise), like absurdly so. Is it just the excitement of a "new guy"?
100% yes. Many fans memories don't go back more than 8 months and they think the most recent seasons performance is what they are going to get next year. That's why some were seriously debating Dom vs. Alonso at this time last year and talking about Conforto for $150m+.
be more apt to keep Stroman over Conforto if that's my choice. I think a good FO should be able to find a solid CO (not Conforto at his best level) but a league average regular on the "cheap". I think SP will be very hard to come by and the Mets don't have depth there. If they let Stroman walk, I still like Eduardo Rodriguez.
be more apt to keep Stroman over Conforto if that's my choice. I think a good FO should be able to find a solid CO (not Conforto at his best level) but a league average regular on the "cheap". I think SP will be very hard to come by and the Mets don't have depth there. If they let Stroman walk, I still like Eduardo Rodriguez.
I tend to agree but normally I'd lean position player due to durability. Stroman has so much athleticism though and his velocity isn't high so right or wrong I think his durability is less risky than other pitchers. I do think there's a chance they decide to just move on from him and not buy high. He seems ultra sensitive and I think at times can be a bit of a distraction. But it's real hard to find good pitching.
be more apt to keep Stroman over Conforto if that's my choice. I think a good FO should be able to find a solid CO (not Conforto at his best level) but a league average regular on the "cheap". I think SP will be very hard to come by and the Mets don't have depth there. If they let Stroman walk, I still like Eduardo Rodriguez.
I tend to agree but normally I'd lean position player due to durability. Stroman has so much athleticism though and his velocity isn't high so right or wrong I think his durability is less risky than other pitchers. I do think there's a chance they decide to just move on from him and not buy high. He seems ultra sensitive and I think at times can be a bit of a distraction. But it's real hard to find good pitching.
I actually dislike him personally. He's not just sensitive, he's hyper sensitive and even searches his own name on twitter. He attacks writers online etc. I don't have any moral issue cheering for a guy I don't care for so that's not a big deal to me, but I also won't go nuts if they let him go (with a proper replacement).
agreed- and if he's hypersensitive/overdramatic for the world to see
how hypersensitive/overdramatic is he about little things in the locker room? like fans booing?
imo this year's team lost because they were mentally weak. the braves lost Acuna who was possibly leading the MVP vote and look where they are now. Soroka tore his achilles in ST.
the met every day players from July to the end of the season were every bit as talented as Atlanta's. They just caved in to pressure and let things like the boo'ing get in their heads. they never got the big hit and never looked like they were having fun. the SP looked tired. and Edwin Diaz Edwin Diaz'd the few potential turning points.
and just to fill in all the blanks before the JDG excuses fly in, the Braves SP in the 2nd half wasn't even dramatically better. Fried and Morton were great but you can't tell me Stroman doesn't have the capacity to be as good or better than either of them. They started 14/15 games respectively and were each worth 2.5+ fwar just in the 2nd half (Stroman was worth 1.7). The Braves next 3 starters who pitched most in the 2nd half had near 5 ERAs and a combined record under .500 and a combined fwar of just .5.
Stroman and Hill combined to start almost as many games as Fried/Morton and both had era's under 4. Megill/Carrasco/Walker all started 12+ games and Trevor Williams actually had the lowest era of all starters in the 2nd half though he only made 3 starts. The fact is nobody on the entire roster stepped up as much as they needed to (Stroman included). With the possible exception of Baez who had as good of a 2nd half as you can hope for minus the boo'ing fiasco.
RE: as a hypothetical of the current resource allocation dilemma
rank the following contracts by the ones you'd most prefer to least.
a) Conforto 5 years 100-125m
b) Nimmo 4 years 70-90m (assuming a decent discount for early extension)
c) Stroman 5 years 100-125m
d) Baez 5 years 120m (Britton estimate from an article yesterday)
for me I think in order I'd go:
D, B, C, A. But Conforto and Stroman are a tie. I could flip a coin either way on that one.
I prioritize Noah over all of them... and then even at that I'd say e) All of the Above
But if I had to prioritize I'd go B, A, C, D... would prefer they go after Correa over Baez but I suppose if you go after Correa and miss, you lose Baez.
I like Stroman the person, but I just don't get the feel he ever dominates games, he's just constantly living on the edge and his competitiveness keeps him in it.. But I'm not arguing w/ having him as my #4 guy in a rotation... he's solid.
where is Correa playing here and how much is he costing?
unlike Baez he has only ever played SS and he's probably the likely gold glove. At 27 years old off the season he's had I'd guess he will cost close to what Lindor cost. imo he is beyond a pipedream and will likely re-up with the Astros for $250m+. But I guess we'll see.
Thor sounds likely to accept the QO and I agree, I put him above all the names on that list.
As for the other 4, to resign all of the above you are looking at about $100m in AAV.
On top of the $100m already committed to JDG/Lindor/Cano/Carrasco.
And about 20m for Thor.
Those 9 players would cost as much as the LAD full roster opening day payroll. And it would be even more than that swapping in Correa for Baez.
In other words resigning all 4 long term is not very realistic or sensible considering how this past year ended up.
almost have to keep Baez, and from what I read if the Mets make a "serious" offer, he will remain a Met.
the rest of the guys I'd make the QO to those eligible and see what happens.
none of the FA's are irreplaceable even Stroman with how desperate the Mets are, I agree Syndergaard even barely pitching in two years is a higher priority than Stroman.
Nimmo maybe the highest priority, if he could stay healthy, but he's not a FA this year anyway, so I don't know if he gets prioritized this year.
almost have to keep Baez, and from what I read if the Mets make a "serious" offer, he will remain a Met.
the rest of the guys I'd make the QO to those eligible and see what happens.
none of the FA's are irreplaceable even Stroman with how desperate the Mets are, I agree Syndergaard even barely pitching in two years is a higher priority than Stroman.
Nimmo maybe the highest priority, if he could stay healthy, but he's not a FA this year anyway, so I don't know if he gets prioritized this year.
the thing with Nimmo is you might be able to lock in extra years without paying him much more. In the final arb year last year Conforto got $12.5m. Nimmo will probably cost similar with no extension.
He has said he is open to extension talks.
He has had numerous issues staying healthy.
If the Mets offer him something like 4/70-80m overall it's just a $5-7m raise in AAV but it keeps him under control for 3 extra years. Something along those lines might make sense for both sides since it's very hard to find two way CF'ers and also very risky for Nimmo to be confident he can stay healthy. AJ Pollock's 5/60m is probably the closest recent comp of a player in a similar situation as Nimmo.
as long as the Mets are willing to exceed the LT, because I'm not sure they can add that AAV to Nimmo (if it includes an increase in 2022) and still sign the players they need to sign (Baez, Syndergaard, another starting pitcher or Stroman, and either Conforto or a different corner OFer plus fill in other players and bullpen help)
as long as the Mets are willing to exceed the LT, because I'm not sure they can add that AAV to Nimmo (if it includes an increase in 2022) and still sign the players they need to sign (Baez, Syndergaard, another starting pitcher or Stroman, and either Conforto or a different corner OFer plus fill in other players and bullpen help)
The smart move (assuming you want to go this route) is tack on his new contract to his existing year, that allows you to circumvent AAV concerns.
they are going to have to exceed the LTT this year
obviously the new CBA could also change that calculus, but I think until Cano/Carrasco are off the books they will likely exceed the LTT.
I think they need to envision a roster construction going forward that is close to the LTT not counting the bad money that they will allow to expire in the next couple years, so that way they have the flexibility to avoid repeat offender status in the future.
So basically a $220m payroll that can accommodate whoever the "real core" is over the next 3-5 years. Lindor and JDG obviously are already locked in and they can estimate the arb costs for McNeil/Alonso/Dom. Then add in from there with Thor/Conforto/Baez/Nimmo/Stroman/etc. That's where the hard choices are because even going over the LTT you can't afford all of them.
but they need to be prepared to go over that $220m in the immediate future by at least the amount of Cano's deal since that's likely untradeable. Unless they can slip something into his protein shake again.
Also obviously a huge way to alleviate payroll issues is by phasing in young guys so I'd eliminate most ideas of 1 of Vientos/Baty being trade bait. I think it's almost a near necessity that they not get blocked and get every chance to win starting spots at 3b/COF over the next couple years (or whenever they are ready).
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
I think if Sandy is still in the picture in any operational capacity, the investment made in Baez will be a consideration toward keeping Baez.
re: Baez - Olney polled 11 evaluators to rank this year's FA SS class
In polling conducted in recent days, 11 evaluators ranked these five elite shortstops No. 1 through No. 5 -- including Semien, who switched to second base this year when he joined the Blue Jays after playing shortstop for Oakland for years. If he moves on from Toronto after one year, the wide presumption is he may return to shortstop. The results of the evaluator voting were applied in a simple system of points -- five points when ranked first among the five shortstops, four points for a second-place ranking, etc. -- and you'll see the results below.
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
I think if Sandy is still in the picture in any operational capacity, the investment made in Baez will be a consideration toward keeping Baez.
Daniel Wexler
@WexlerRules
·
Oct 20
@StevenACohen2
Peter Bendix and Carlos Rodriguez from @RaysBaseball
both are impressive candidates. As part of your search committee might I suggest both be considered? Thanks! #Mets
Today-
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
As the Mets continue their front office search, Rays vice president of baseball development Peter Bendix is on their radar.
Bendix has been in the Rays organization since joining them as an intern back in 2009.
John From Albany
@JohnFromAlbany
·
13m
Today in Arizona:
Baty 0 for 3, 2 BBs, 1 run.
Senger 1 for 3, 1 BB.
W. Reyes 0 for 2, 2 BBs.
G. Bryant, 3 inns, no runs, 1 hit, 1 BB, 3 Ks.
C. Grey (L, 1-1) 3 inns, 1 run, 3 hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.
B. Metoyer 1 inn, 1 run, 1 hit, 2 BBs, 2 Ks.
Agree, it would be idiotic to hire a manager first
That begged the question of why Beane removed himself from consideration in the Mets’ search. To him, the answer was simple: His family is more important than his career.
“Creating chaos in my children’s lives for my own ambition feels like a selfish thing to do,” Beane said.
Beane has twin girls entering the same Catholic high school that his wife attended. They are involved in sports and have built a life there.
either way theses quotes don't matter. none of the rumors matter. the only thing that matters is they get it right with whoever they do hire. Beane/Theo would have been moonshots and I think there was legitimately a chance they could have gotten one of them. Not asking would have been worse than asking and getting turned down. it makes the search harder to have to continue to look elsewhere but not impossible to still get right.
Billy Beane: Working with Mets’ Sandy Alderson and Steve Cohen an 'amazing opportunity' - ( New Window )
you are right there is nothing shocking or new in Beane's comments - which is why I've posted that Sandy is a net + ever since Cohen brought him back and separate from Beane specifically being a candidate. I doubt there's anyone he's as close with as Beane but he's been around and considered to be respected as much as just about anyone in MLB.
it is literally no different than how some viewed Sandy as a way to make Cohen more palatable to owners prior to the vote last year. people in baseball know and trust Sandy.
he could have said nothing and denied he had any interest elsewhere, the same way he has pretty much every offseason it's come up for 20 years. literally 2 weeks ago he was laughing off the rumors entirely like he hadn't even read them.
either way as I said it doesn't matter whether or not he almost came here or didn't. the only thing that matters is who they get. not who thought about coming here but didn't.
I have consistently stated and continue to think the content of what Beane put his name to - that Cohen/Alderson are appealing to work for - is true and roughly 10 million times more credible than the unattributed rumors about an Alderson family power grab. But the results of who they ultimately hire will either validate that or not far more than named or unnamed quotes. I thought Porter was a solid hire when they got him last year and I expect someone at least as good as that. Anything worse will be a failure.
heyman is hit or miss but that one is particularly strange. so is the Melvin rumor. we met fans are always on edge and there's a big social media contingent that's gleeful at any piece of info they can get that can rile up the lolmets sentiment. and there are countless nick francona's we've never heard of who feel they've been wronged and are more than willing to give reporters the quote they want from "a source within the baseball world".
the most relevant data point (imo) for this year's search is last year's search. very few leaks got out during the process and it turned out there were some well established young executives in play who were nowhere on the media's radar.
we don't entirely know how good/bad they viewed their own decision after working with Porter for a few months (pre scandal) - but if they liked him I expect they will follow a similar approach and look for someone similar. Charismatic young exec with a background from one of the winning trees (Theo/LAD/TB/etc). Probably with a few more questions about text etiquette.
pretty sure you just guaranteed the reintroduction of Terry Collins as manager on Monday or Tuesday, 24-48 hours prior to naming Doug Melvin POBO with Bryn Alderson promoted to GM.
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I’m banning myself from a single pessimistic Met comment for one week if the Knicks win this game. Self imposed
pretty sure you just guaranteed the reintroduction of Terry Collins as manager on Monday or Tuesday, 24-48 hours prior to naming Doug Melvin POBO with Bryn Alderson promoted to GM.
All kidding aside Terry Collins is extremely nice, he used to go
To this bar in LIC called PJ Leahy’s and he was just one of the guys and while it was weird pretending I wasn’t kinda starstruck he was one of the nicest “celebrities” I’ve ever encountered. He remembered us when we saw him again. Not our names, but that we had met
All kidding aside Terry Collins is extremely nice, he used to go
To this bar in LIC called PJ Leahy’s and he was just one of the guys and while it was weird pretending I wasn’t kinda starstruck he was one of the nicest “celebrities” I’ve ever encountered. He remembered us when we saw him again. Not our names, but that we had met
he got a bad rep. I thought he made almost every right decision in the 2015 playoffs. He was better than Mattingly in the LAD series and it had an impact. Yes he should have pulled Harvey in the WS but in the moment EVERYONE wanted him to stay in. And they would have still gotten out of it if Duda made the throw home.
It was completely fair to try to find a new voice after 2017 but when it was clear early on Mickey wasn't playing with a full deck I would have fired him and pulled a jack mckeon bringing back Collins (pretty sure he was still in the org at that point).
One of the best manager blow ups.
One of the best manager blow ups.
generally agree but in that postseason he pushed all the right buttons. the 6 out game 5 save with Familia vs. LAD was particularly ballsy. I think he had him go for multi-inning saves in game 1 also. He got challenges right. He kept the them from losing their emotions after the Utley play (not just being pissed at the dirty play but remember Utley ended up getting called safe and scoring to flip the outcome of the game to make the series 1-1 instead of 0-2).
that series was decided by a very slim margin and ultimately got mattingly fired.
Is Cast going to get a QO?
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
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kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
Is Cast going to get a QO?
Yes. He will have a pick attached. Same as Conforto.
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In comment 15423647 DanMetroMan said:
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kinda curious why I see so many mets fans on twitter eager to sign Castellanos and dump Conforto. On paper it's a completely linear move. Unless you think Conforto is more "in decline/done" vs. a bad year it doesn't move the needle at all but I see a bunch of people suggesting it?
Is Cast going to get a QO?
Yes. He will have a pick attached. Same as Conforto.
Sorry.. same as Conforto assuming the Mets offer him a QO.
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
I understand this line of thinking, I just don't understand getting a pick for Conforto, losing a pick for Castellanos when they are very, very similar players for their careers (production wise), like absurdly so. Is it just the excitement of a "new guy"?
a) Conforto 5 years 100-125m
b) Nimmo 4 years 70-90m (assuming a decent discount for early extension)
c) Stroman 5 years 100-125m
d) Baez 5 years 120m (Britton estimate from an article yesterday)
for me I think in order I'd go:
D, B, C, A. But Conforto and Stroman are a tie. I could flip a coin either way on that one.
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I would not in a million years spend similar money on a similar player who hasn't played here before.
If it's a choice between Conforto and a SP or Conforto and Baez, it's an understandable decision either way.
Honestly it's just an understandable decision to not think it's worth committing $100m to any COF'er. It might be a better investment to extend Nimmo early at a more manageable amount. Nimmo's durability is a huge question but Conforto hasn't exactly been an iron man either.
I understand this line of thinking, I just don't understand getting a pick for Conforto, losing a pick for Castellanos when they are very, very similar players for their careers (production wise), like absurdly so. Is it just the excitement of a "new guy"?
100% yes. Many fans memories don't go back more than 8 months and they think the most recent seasons performance is what they are going to get next year. That's why some were seriously debating Dom vs. Alonso at this time last year and talking about Conforto for $150m+.
I tend to agree but normally I'd lean position player due to durability. Stroman has so much athleticism though and his velocity isn't high so right or wrong I think his durability is less risky than other pitchers. I do think there's a chance they decide to just move on from him and not buy high. He seems ultra sensitive and I think at times can be a bit of a distraction. But it's real hard to find good pitching.
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be more apt to keep Stroman over Conforto if that's my choice. I think a good FO should be able to find a solid CO (not Conforto at his best level) but a league average regular on the "cheap". I think SP will be very hard to come by and the Mets don't have depth there. If they let Stroman walk, I still like Eduardo Rodriguez.
I tend to agree but normally I'd lean position player due to durability. Stroman has so much athleticism though and his velocity isn't high so right or wrong I think his durability is less risky than other pitchers. I do think there's a chance they decide to just move on from him and not buy high. He seems ultra sensitive and I think at times can be a bit of a distraction. But it's real hard to find good pitching.
I actually dislike him personally. He's not just sensitive, he's hyper sensitive and even searches his own name on twitter. He attacks writers online etc. I don't have any moral issue cheering for a guy I don't care for so that's not a big deal to me, but I also won't go nuts if they let him go (with a proper replacement).
imo this year's team lost because they were mentally weak. the braves lost Acuna who was possibly leading the MVP vote and look where they are now. Soroka tore his achilles in ST.
the met every day players from July to the end of the season were every bit as talented as Atlanta's. They just caved in to pressure and let things like the boo'ing get in their heads. they never got the big hit and never looked like they were having fun. the SP looked tired. and Edwin Diaz Edwin Diaz'd the few potential turning points.
and just to fill in all the blanks before the JDG excuses fly in, the Braves SP in the 2nd half wasn't even dramatically better. Fried and Morton were great but you can't tell me Stroman doesn't have the capacity to be as good or better than either of them. They started 14/15 games respectively and were each worth 2.5+ fwar just in the 2nd half (Stroman was worth 1.7). The Braves next 3 starters who pitched most in the 2nd half had near 5 ERAs and a combined record under .500 and a combined fwar of just .5.
Stroman and Hill combined to start almost as many games as Fried/Morton and both had era's under 4. Megill/Carrasco/Walker all started 12+ games and Trevor Williams actually had the lowest era of all starters in the 2nd half though he only made 3 starts. The fact is nobody on the entire roster stepped up as much as they needed to (Stroman included). With the possible exception of Baez who had as good of a 2nd half as you can hope for minus the boo'ing fiasco.
a) Conforto 5 years 100-125m
b) Nimmo 4 years 70-90m (assuming a decent discount for early extension)
c) Stroman 5 years 100-125m
d) Baez 5 years 120m (Britton estimate from an article yesterday)
for me I think in order I'd go:
D, B, C, A. But Conforto and Stroman are a tie. I could flip a coin either way on that one.
I prioritize Noah over all of them... and then even at that I'd say e) All of the Above
But if I had to prioritize I'd go B, A, C, D... would prefer they go after Correa over Baez but I suppose if you go after Correa and miss, you lose Baez.
I like Stroman the person, but I just don't get the feel he ever dominates games, he's just constantly living on the edge and his competitiveness keeps him in it.. But I'm not arguing w/ having him as my #4 guy in a rotation... he's solid.
Thor sounds likely to accept the QO and I agree, I put him above all the names on that list.
As for the other 4, to resign all of the above you are looking at about $100m in AAV.
On top of the $100m already committed to JDG/Lindor/Cano/Carrasco.
And about 20m for Thor.
Those 9 players would cost as much as the LAD full roster opening day payroll. And it would be even more than that swapping in Correa for Baez.
In other words resigning all 4 long term is not very realistic or sensible considering how this past year ended up.
the rest of the guys I'd make the QO to those eligible and see what happens.
none of the FA's are irreplaceable even Stroman with how desperate the Mets are, I agree Syndergaard even barely pitching in two years is a higher priority than Stroman.
Nimmo maybe the highest priority, if he could stay healthy, but he's not a FA this year anyway, so I don't know if he gets prioritized this year.
the rest of the guys I'd make the QO to those eligible and see what happens.
none of the FA's are irreplaceable even Stroman with how desperate the Mets are, I agree Syndergaard even barely pitching in two years is a higher priority than Stroman.
Nimmo maybe the highest priority, if he could stay healthy, but he's not a FA this year anyway, so I don't know if he gets prioritized this year.
the thing with Nimmo is you might be able to lock in extra years without paying him much more. In the final arb year last year Conforto got $12.5m. Nimmo will probably cost similar with no extension.
He has said he is open to extension talks.
He has had numerous issues staying healthy.
If the Mets offer him something like 4/70-80m overall it's just a $5-7m raise in AAV but it keeps him under control for 3 extra years. Something along those lines might make sense for both sides since it's very hard to find two way CF'ers and also very risky for Nimmo to be confident he can stay healthy. AJ Pollock's 5/60m is probably the closest recent comp of a player in a similar situation as Nimmo.
The smart move (assuming you want to go this route) is tack on his new contract to his existing year, that allows you to circumvent AAV concerns.
I think they need to envision a roster construction going forward that is close to the LTT not counting the bad money that they will allow to expire in the next couple years, so that way they have the flexibility to avoid repeat offender status in the future.
So basically a $220m payroll that can accommodate whoever the "real core" is over the next 3-5 years. Lindor and JDG obviously are already locked in and they can estimate the arb costs for McNeil/Alonso/Dom. Then add in from there with Thor/Conforto/Baez/Nimmo/Stroman/etc. That's where the hard choices are because even going over the LTT you can't afford all of them.
but they need to be prepared to go over that $220m in the immediate future by at least the amount of Cano's deal since that's likely untradeable. Unless they can slip something into his protein shake again.
Also obviously a huge way to alleviate payroll issues is by phasing in young guys so I'd eliminate most ideas of 1 of Vientos/Baty being trade bait. I think it's almost a near necessity that they not get blocked and get every chance to win starting spots at 3b/COF over the next couple years (or whenever they are ready).
A-Rod never played anywhere else and he moved to 3rd despite being a better defensive SS than Jeter...
Not concerned about LT Uncle Steve didn't buy the team to not spend... If a move makes the team better and doesn't mortgage the future, you do it.
I'd argue spending 30% more on Correa vs paying Baez actually sets you up better for the future...
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
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is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
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In comment 15423936 pjcas18 said:
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is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
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In comment 15423942 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 15423936 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
I think if Sandy is still in the picture in any operational capacity, the investment made in Baez will be a consideration toward keeping Baez.
Surprised Correa isn't at the top.
1. Seager (50 pts)
2. Correa (45 pts)
3. Semien (32 pts)
4. Story (23 pts)
5. Baez (15 pts)
they didn't include any contract predictions but I do wonder if maybe Baez will have a cooler market than we'd expect as Cespedes did in 2015 + 2016. they are very similar dynamic yet unpredictable talents in a lot of ways.
How evaluators rank MLB's billion-dollar class of free-agent shortstops -- and where each might land - ( New Window )
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In comment 15423947 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15423942 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15423936 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is sort of like Leonard Williams (at least as long as Sandy is still here) in that the investment has been unfortunately made.
Like or hate PCA he was the top OF prospect in a farm system barren of OF prospects, so he was more valuable to the Mets even if he was 2-3 years away than some other teams.
You don't trade him for Baez and let Baez walk two months later, it's malpractice.
First you miscalculate your team's chances at the post-season knowing your ace was unlikely to pitch again this year, and then second you waste a top 5 prospect on a rental.
firable IMO.
So to save face Baez will be re-signed.
smart people don't make future decisions based on sunk costs.
if the person they hire to be POBO or GM makes a decision based on a sunk cost they are the wrong hire. Full stop. Same if the decision gets made before they make that new hire.
there are reasons for the new POBO/GM to consider resigning Baez like him being a gold glove 2b. And him being one of the best power hitters in baseball. And him being a generally electric player who can impact games in all ways. Because they traded PCA for him is not one of those reasons.
ok
do you think the new POBO/GM should consider PCA as part of the decision to resign Baez?
or do you think the new POBO/GM shouldn't be the one to make the decision?
I think if Sandy is still in the picture in any operational capacity, the investment made in Baez will be a consideration toward keeping Baez.
ok
@WexlerRules
·
Oct 20
@StevenACohen2
Peter Bendix and Carlos Rodriguez from @RaysBaseball
both are impressive candidates. As part of your search committee might I suggest both be considered? Thanks! #Mets
Today-
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
As the Mets continue their front office search, Rays vice president of baseball development Peter Bendix is on their radar.
Bendix has been in the Rays organization since joining them as an intern back in 2009.