I know there are a number of folks who don't enjoy debating the economics, in the spirit of a productive convo if you fall in that group maybe politely not chime in? Thanks
This offseason Jones will be eligible for:
1) a contract extension
2) a fully guaranteed 5th year option for 2023 at $21.3M
Going into his 4th year Jones will cost the Giants ~8.3M against the 2022 cap, roughly half of that figure is the amortized potion of his signing bonus ($4.1M)
The balance of his cap charge is a fully guaranteed salary and fully guaranteed roster bonus, meaning if he's cut that will accelerate, and if he was traded it would be his new team's responsibility.
So this offseason the Giants can:
1) Exercise his 5th year option, retain his rights and his 2023 salary will be $21.3M fully guaranteed
2) Decline his 5th year option, but still have the rights to franchise tag him for 2023 at somewhere north of $25M
3) Decline his option and let him walk after the 2022 season
4) Extend Jones on a multi-year deal
5) Trade Jones and save ~4M
So two simple questions:
If Jones does blank by the end of the year -- I want the the Giants to pick one of the five options.
If he continues his pace of pathetic TD production and the team produces a below-average offense, trade him for a first or second if you can. If you can't, keep him next year.
If Jones continues scoring TDs at the current rate I would try to trade him for anything we could get.
If trading Jones is on the table, who would be a viable trading partner for the Giants?
Might it make more sense to decline the option, see if the Giants can in fact construct a better line, then franchise or extend him if he blossoms?
That's exactly what I'm asking -- what would you need to see by the end of the year to make a decision?
Personally, I am seeing Jones more and more as the long term solution. So depending upon how the rest of this season plays out - I wouldn't be opposed to an extension. The most important factor to me is his health. If he can remain healthy through the end of the season, that's as important to me as any statistic / TD-INTO ratio.
That's going to get quite expensive. Jones would make 8M + 23M over the next two years, and depending on the draft slot a pick could make 10M + 10M as well.
The option year being fully guaranteed now really changes the calculus for me.
I would be absolutely shocked if the Giants traded Jones.
Just cant see it happening, I think they like him too much off the field, and he has shown enough on the field to keep rolling with him for at least two more years.
Let's say the franchise tender is like 28M for the '23 season, might it make more sense to not exercise the option and see how it plays out?
If he has a dynamite season next year, aren't the Giants extending him anyway?
I think it's worth the risk of letting him play out his fourth season and not getting locked in.
The good news, he's got a contract for '22 and they can pick up his option for '23, and not rush into a multi-year extension.
I would be open to a trade if it made sense. If we got a third or higher draft pick.
I'd prefer that they move on from him after this year just because Mara might have a hard on for "easy to root for" QBs and that might result in a long term deal. Which would give this team an extremely low ceiling for a long time.
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but I remain in the trade him camp, unless he starts producing in the red zone and fixes some of the read progression issues.
I would be absolutely shocked if the Giants traded Jones.
Just cant see it happening, I think they like him too much off the field, and he has shown enough on the field to keep rolling with him for at least two more years.
Of course they won't trade him.
I expect them to pick up his option. And I expect the Giants to continue to be a poor offensive team the next couple years.
So happy you can read the minds of the organization. What is actual Golladay's status, since you are in the know.
By the way, I think we are *excepting*, if you know what I mean.
Under a fully competent regime who has enough bonafides to not ridicule analysis or declare "full bloom love" while reminding female reporters that "Rome wasn't built in a day, dahlin'"? I'd probably extend to him the 5th year option and actually engage with him regarding the scheme that he feels would be most effective for him to produce actual victories.
It's ironic, actually. DG loves DJ, and somehow is completely unable to craft a functional roster to surround him. I'm sure it's just bad luck and not arrogant incompetence or anything.
They have to decide on his option this offseason.
What NFL QBs have regularly had a "full strength complement of players" around them?
This is such a horseshit excuse. DJ has underperformed even if you grade on a curve. 11 passing TDs for a full season? How is Jalen Hurts doing this season on a shit team with plenty of injuries? Will he finish the year with 11 passing TDs?
The standard should be that Jones proves he can perform, not evidence that he can't perform.
I dont he has proven anything to this point. Happy to be proven wrong by years end
I get a little itchy now that the option is fully guaranteed.
I don't see the downside of declining the option, letting him play, and franchising if necessary.
If Jones plays well in year four the Giants are locking him up with a top of market deal in my view.
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But yes either way I'm picking up the option. No extension until I see more good play. And in doing so, would in no way effect drafting a QB in the 1st round for me.
That's going to get quite expensive. Jones would make 8M + 23M over the next two years, and depending on the draft slot a pick could make 10M + 10M as well.
The option year being fully guaranteed now really changes the calculus for me.
I thought draft slot didn't matter. He will make 21.3 Million on his 5th year option unless he makes the probowl this year or next. This year is pretty much out so unless he makes the probowl next year he will make 21.3 or 25.6 if he makes probowl.
I am more worried about Lawerence.... 5th year option at 11.5 and will go to 16.6 if he makes the probowl this year or next. Most likely he won't make the probowl either but damn that is a lot if he gets in as a sub or something.
So what are your opinions on how the Giants will do that?
Reading the OP post better If Jones continues to improve I would happily pickup the 5th year option. $21.3 doesn't scare me. The team has a lot of draft choices including two in the 1st round so theoretically they should be able to improve in areas of need without being forced into relying solely on FA.
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In comment 15430118 rasbutant said:
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But yes either way I'm picking up the option. No extension until I see more good play. And in doing so, would in no way effect drafting a QB in the 1st round for me.
That's going to get quite expensive. Jones would make 8M + 23M over the next two years, and depending on the draft slot a pick could make 10M + 10M as well.
The option year being fully guaranteed now really changes the calculus for me.
I thought draft slot didn't matter. He will make 21.3 Million on his 5th year option unless he makes the probowl this year or next. This year is pretty much out so unless he makes the probowl next year he will make 21.3 or 25.6 if he makes probowl.
I'm referring to the scenario you described -- exercise the option and also potentially draft a QB.
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The good news, he's got a contract for '22 and they can pick up his option for '23, and not rush into a multi-year extension.
I get a little itchy now that the option is fully guaranteed.
I don't see the downside of declining the option, letting him play, and franchising if necessary.
If Jones plays well in year four the Giants are locking him up with a top of market deal in my view.
This also makes a lot of sense as you are only playing with an extra $4m
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uptick in production, and Jones unveils special characteristics that franchise Qbs should have, the obvious answer is to find a trade partner. And I think we could...
If trading Jones is on the table, who would be a viable trading partner for the Giants?
I could see Houston and Pittsburgh.
If Seattle and Vegas move on from Wilson and Carr, then those two as well.
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The good news, he's got a contract for '22 and they can pick up his option for '23, and not rush into a multi-year extension.
I get a little itchy now that the option is fully guaranteed.
I don't see the downside of declining the option, letting him play, and franchising if necessary.
If Jones plays well in year four the Giants are locking him up with a top of market deal in my view.
I'm ok declining the option too, actually prefer it, put the heat on him so this reaches a decision point sooner than later.
This is such a horseshit excuse. DJ has underperformed even if you grade on a curve. 11 passing TDs for a full season? How is Jalen Hurts doing this season on a shit team with plenty of injuries? Will he finish the year with 11 passing TDs?
It doesn't matter GD, than they'll point to playcalling. As if Jones is the only QB in recent history to be drafted high by, you'll never guess it, a BAD team!
if he regresses substantially then you decline it but still likely give him 1 more year with a new coordinator. worst case of needing to tag him is actually best case because it means he's progressed and at that point the tag # may be irrelevant because they are trying to extend long term anyway.
if he improves further AND the team improves enough to be confident in Judge, then you extend if that's what Judge wants to do. But this almost depends more on Judge than Jones. Unless he turns into Josh Allen very quickly you don't extend if you think you might be changing coaches soon.
the 5th year option cap hit for a QB is perfectly livable and if recent trends are any indication it's highly likely he'll retain some surplus value even with no improvement.
I dont believe there are any QBs that will be no brainers in the draft over the next year or so where they are likely to pick, so the only 2 viable alternative considerations are Watson and Wilson. I very much doubt the NYG would trade for Watson given his off field situation so that leaves Wilson - and if you have a chance to get him you I think you have to do that even though he's about to turn 33. Any team with Russ should get a 3-5 year window to win a SB.
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early to tell. Need to wait until the end of the season.
That's exactly what I'm asking -- what would you need to see by the end of the year to make a decision?
I'm not sure what I would need to see by the end of the season in terms of his performance. There are too many other unknown factors, including his health and that of the other players.
I think Hurts would absolutely stink on the Giants.
I think that's exactly where I am too.
Because his 5th year option and franchise tender are in the same neighborhood -- I'd pick the path where I have flexibility.
I'd gladly risk paying the extra $5M difference between the option and the tender for the flexibility.
Mostly because I believe the Giants will extend him after year four if he plays well.
Getting better at making reads is one of my biggest concerns with Jones. That problem wasn't on display last Sunday because the bad OL play caused Garrett to correctly call a lot of roll outs and quick throws like slants where Jones got rid of the ball within one to three seconds. But an argument can be made that despite all the injuries to his playmakers, he hasn't improved enough in this area in year three. As I said, I nonetheless want to wait until the end of the season to get a comprehensive view of his performance.
That's what I'd do in that scenario too. Seems like it presents the least amount of risk and offers the most flexibility.
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and tell him to go earn his next contract in year 4 since we could franchise him still if he miraculously played at an elite level.
I think that's exactly where I am too.
Because his 5th year option and franchise tender are in the same neighborhood -- I'd pick the path where I have flexibility.
I'd gladly risk paying the extra $5M difference between the option and the tender for the flexibility.
Mostly because I believe the Giants will extend him after year four if he plays well.
Yes, this.