I’m seeing a categorical statement that there are no really good QBs coming out. I’d like posters to show a little bit of humility on this point.
After what we’ve seen from Jones in terms of field processing, pocket presence and timing, it’s become really clear that high level QBing that translates to the NFL is difficult to spot. It’s subtle and it requires skillful scouting to detect. In fact, real NFL scouts are constantly making erroneous projections after what I’m sure is extensive work and film viewing.
Two of the best NFL QBs ever, Joe Montana and Drew Brees, we’re physically ordinary and we’re in fact downgraded in the draft. Superb physical prototypes like Jeff George failed utterly.
So spare me any categorical statements about the upcoming class, even if you’ve watched several full college games. I’m not saying that there are or are not future greats in the coming class. I’m saying that after seeing Eli, Kerry Collins and Jones, we should know from experience that making the projection is REALLY HARD. (That’s what she said.)
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no offense, that chart means nothing. But thanks for sharing. College success at the QB position has little to do with NFL projection.
Eli Manning would have been way down that list.
It's projected pretty well for Jones so far.
So let me ask you - why do you think The Giants drafted Jones?
They saw Eli Manning II and thought Eli could be for him what Kurt Warner was for Eli. However, Eli was much further gone in his career than Warner was when we brought him in. Eli Manning had a bunch of no names at Ole Miss yet had them in the Top 15 playing in the Cotton Bowl. Daniel Jones took Duke to multiple winning seasons and multiple bowl wins. I can't recall the last time any QB led Duke to that. I think their preference was Justin Herbert, but when he decided to remain at Oregon they didn't to make sure they got a QB when they were in a position to get one. I don't think they expected to be picking 4th overall the following season. One of many misjudgments about where the team was.
But is QBR YTD - 46.9 - is lower than 2019 (55.7) and 2020 (54). And he's probably going to have 15 TDs and 10+ INTs. Which means another year of double digit INTs and a subpar TD/INT ratio.
In other words, it's really a mixed bag when you evaluate the full picture. Some good games for Jones and some poor games. He never can string together multiple games to demonstrate consistency.
And that's really the never-ending problem. Lack of consistency. Always has been...
It often feels like they're throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks. Their decisions are often short-term focused and reactionary, and then Mara's basic comments go right to injuries. It's maddening.
There is no ability for patience with QBs anymore. You see Herbert and go OMG WE SHOULD HAVE THAT GUY! QB performance is not linear. There will be a year where Herbert struggles. He'll go through a period where he looks bad. Hell, Patrick Mahomes has not looked good recently, he has turned the ball over more than Daniel Jones. Because his OL sucks. That's why.
People like Terps create their own rules as to what franchise QBs should look like. He created this "30 TD" rule - well - he wants to trade our whole team for Watson and Watson has thrown 30 TD once in his career. Russell Wilson did it exactly 1 time his first 5 years in the league.
And what I'm seeing is a guy who has improved his decision making and his turnovers. He's getting out of the pocket more. His movement is better. He's seeing the field better. We've had about 10 players this year that would have been huge if not for breakdowns on the OL, which is not Jones' fault. He carried us at Washington, carried us at New Orleans, and just played a really good game against a top 10 defense with literally, nobody on the OL and no skill players, and won by 20+ points.
He isn't throwing enough touchdown passes, and that's what people keep harping on. Well....he didn't all of a sudden forget how to do that. It's about personnel, red zone efficiency, play calling, everything.
Jones is improving this year, and will continue to improve as we get our guys back. Not sure what else to say.
He played a "really good game" against Carolina? Really? Outside of the garbage time Booker TD when the Giants took over on Carolina's 20 yard line, the offense produced one touchdown. This despite having dream field position the entire first half. This was far from a "really good game". Did he suck? No, he did not. Was he really good? No, he was not.
I will say this, he was amazing at avoiding more sacks considering there was, as you say, "literally" nobody on the OL.
If Rudolph doesn't step out of bounds, Jones has 2 TD and everyone goes wow Jones was GREAT today! But he did, and Garrett calls 3 runs up the middle and gets stuffed. Again, not on Jones.
If Judge doesn't take the ball out of his hands multiple times against Washington or Atlanta, he probably has 2 or 3 more TD on the season. But he did, so the stat line remains what it is.
Garoppolo is another one to look at. He sat behind Brady for three years but interestingly his stats were in another stratosphere compared to Jones. Which explains why he was traded in a big transaction.
Jared Goff - who everyone like to diss - looked like Johnny Unitas on the Rams but with the Lions is quietly having a really lousy year.
I’m not seeing any evidence that QBs mature into Pro Bowlers in the current era.
Let me put this more personally - the selections of Barkley (who I honestly view as a completely mediocre player - I’m literally completely indifferent as to whether he sets foot on the field vs KC) and Jones (who is better but not exceptional) have brought home to me how mental aspects of the game are so crucial. Both players have some very positive athletic traits but have non-elite “football cognitive” skills. That limits their performance and their ceiling in the NFL.
Hence, my comment that we need to be very careful in assessing college players. Corral is fairly small but if he processes the game like Drew Brees (not saying he does but if...) he will be a star. And it’s difficult for fans to assess those sorts of attributes.
QBR evaluates the entire play. Every play of the game. Average is assumed to be 50.
The analysts looks at the time Jones has to throw, the effectiveness of his receivers, ball placement, running, penalties, garbage time, etc. So the level of talent is smoothed out.
For example, if Jones drops back to pass, is flushed out of the pocket because his protection breaks down, and makes a good throw that is dropped, it's considered a positive play for Jones.
So if you think that is a reasonable approach, how do you explain that Jones's QBR is his poorest so far in his career?
Again, Jones struggles stringing together quality performances. It's a good game, a poor game. Two good games, two poor games. You just can't count on the guy to get on a roll and sustain quality play. If you can't trust your most important player to be reliable game to game, he's just not your answer.
Wait - there's an alternate universe where the Giants are scoring over 20 PPG and playing winning football? How do I get to this place?
I say the data indicates clearly that you will know very quickly whether you have a future star at QB. I’m not coming up with any examples in the last 10-15 years to disprove that. There are players who develop into reasonable starting NFL QBs, but they aren’t stars.
I say the data indicates clearly that you will know very quickly whether you have a future star at QB. I’m not coming up with any examples in the last 10-15 years to disprove that. There are players who develop into reasonable starting NFL QBs, but they aren’t stars.
Well, in regard to the premise of this thread, I absolutely want to underscore that the QB class of '22 is not as bad as many state. There is quality that is worth watching playing more games. Hell, like I said, Kiper now has Pickett his top ranked QB and the 15th best overall player. And I don't think that's crazy...
That’s Allen - a project who needed to be developed.
What are we arguing about with Jones exactly? I think it’s likely he can be as or almost as good as Kirk Cousins. That’s nothing to sneeze at but I just don’t see how he fits into the Giants future.
I say the data indicates clearly that you will know very quickly whether you have a future star at QB. I’m not coming up with any examples in the last 10-15 years to disprove that. There are players who develop into reasonable starting NFL QBs, but they aren’t stars.
Brees is the only guy I can think of here. He really didn't pop until his 4th year in San Diego. And then he got hurt...
But that’s an eon ago, before the Colts/Pats playoff brouhaha and the passing game liberalization. I was deliberately restricting my view to the last 15 years.
He played a good, clean game against a top 10 defense while missing several of his best weapons. This is progress for one game, now start stringing the performances together while continuing to eliminate some of the negatives I've spotted. Let's see it in the metrics and on the field as the unit gets healthy.
If Jones looks like this on Monday, he will receive high praise from his critics.
Watson is elite - ( New Window )
This “emerging player” thesis has not basis. It’s over guys, we know what we have.
That’s Allen - a project who needed to be developed.
What are we arguing about with Jones exactly? I think it’s likely he can be as or almost as good as Kirk Cousins. That’s nothing to sneeze at but I just don’t see how he fits into the Giants future.
I don't see any comp between Jones and Cousins. Cousins is fundamentally pretty sound - a mechanic. He doesn't make the special plays that separate the top guys from him, but he's got the rest of the game down. I don't see Jones ever getting to that...long way to go.
He played a good, clean game against a top 10 defense while missing several of his best weapons. This is progress for one game, now start stringing the performances together while continuing to eliminate some of the negatives I've spotted. Let's see it in the metrics and on the field as the unit gets healthy.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
There is no ability for patience with QBs anymore. You see Herbert and go OMG WE SHOULD HAVE THAT GUY! QB performance is not linear. There will be a year where Herbert struggles.
We did get spoiled with Eli Manning, but some of us aren't delusional enough to believe they replaced Eli Manning with another 10-15 year QB just because Jones looks like he's straight out of Quarterback central casting and has good games once in a while.
That's how YOU'RE spoiled. The Giants had a franchise QB in Eli Manning, and then (according to you) they landed another one immediately afterwards. Maybe, just maybe, it doesn't work that way??
Point blank - will the Giants win a playoff game with Daniel Jones as their starter? If so, when? Will they reach an NFC Championship Game? Super Bowl?
What's the timeline for the franchise and Jones? How does his contract situation mesh with the franchise's current and future outlook?
And on the subject of Herbert, with the exception of straight line speed, he's literally better than Jones in every single way.
This “emerging player” thesis has not basis. It’s over guys, we know what we have.
Tannehill is another good example. He was a WR at Texas A&M and then converted to a QB either his Jr and Sr year. Drafted high by Miami and very raw. But even with some ordinary talent at Miami, he was able to throw 24+ TDs in years 2 and 3. And his completion % was getting better and better. Plus, he was getting crushed in the pocket due to a poor OL...
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were spoiled with Eli Manning. Then again - they also wanted him gone multiple times throughout his career, even after his third and fourth season.
There is no ability for patience with QBs anymore. You see Herbert and go OMG WE SHOULD HAVE THAT GUY! QB performance is not linear. There will be a year where Herbert struggles.
We did get spoiled with Eli Manning, but some of us aren't delusional enough to believe they replaced Eli Manning with another 10-15 year QB just because Jones looks like he's straight out of Quarterback central casting and has good games once in a while.
That's how YOU'RE spoiled. The Giants had a franchise QB in Eli Manning, and then (according to you) they landed another one immediately afterwards. Maybe, just maybe, it doesn't work that way??
Point blank - will the Giants win a playoff game with Daniel Jones as their starter? If so, when? Will they reach an NFC Championship Game? Super Bowl?
What's the timeline for the franchise and Jones? How does his contract situation mesh with the franchise's current and future outlook?
And on the subject of Herbert, with the exception of straight line speed, he's literally better than Jones in every single way.
I'm pretty sure there were ZERO fans that wanted Eli gone after his 4th season.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
Indeed. Teams will jump over each other to grab one of the top 2 QBs in the class, regardless how weak it may seem.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
I agree the Giants are not in a position that they shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises, but the question is are they in a position that they HAVE TO draft a QB even if they do not think he is an improvement over Jones and someone at another position of need looks to be a stud? I would argue that since Jones is on a rookie contract in 2022 we are in a position where we can say if there isn't a better option in the draft grin and bear it and draft one in 2023 (perhaps using 2nd 1st as leverage to get an additional 1st in 2023) because then you will have a minimum of 5 more years of a QB on a rookie contract whereas if you draft one in 2022 who isn't better then you have only 4 years because of the 1 year overlap between Jones and new QB.
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I expect we'll see 3-5 QBs drafted in the first round. That's just the economics of the game in the present day. Unless you have an unquestioned stud at QB it makes sense to stay in a rookie contract at the position.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
Indeed. Teams will jump over each other to grab one of the top 2 QBs in the class, regardless how weak it may seem.
That is how you end up with a Blake Bortles or Daniel Jones
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Allen was obviously a project but Bills fans were sitting there in late October of 2020 - his 3rd season - knowing they had a future star QB on their team. Allen was completing 70% of his passes in most of his games in his 3rd year, putting up impressive stats and winning.
That’s Allen - a project who needed to be developed.
What are we arguing about with Jones exactly? I think it’s likely he can be as or almost as good as Kirk Cousins. That’s nothing to sneeze at but I just don’t see how he fits into the Giants future.
I don't see any comp between Jones and Cousins. Cousins is fundamentally pretty sound - a mechanic. He doesn't make the special plays that separate the top guys from him, but he's got the rest of the game down. I don't see Jones ever getting to that...long way to go.
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I expect we'll see 3-5 QBs drafted in the first round. That's just the economics of the game in the present day. Unless you have an unquestioned stud at QB it makes sense to stay in a rookie contract at the position.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
I agree the Giants are not in a position that they shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises, but the question is are they in a position that they HAVE TO draft a QB even if they do not think he is an improvement over Jones and someone at another position of need looks to be a stud? I would argue that since Jones is on a rookie contract in 2022 we are in a position where we can say if there isn't a better option in the draft grin and bear it and draft one in 2023 (perhaps using 2nd 1st as leverage to get an additional 1st in 2023) because then you will have a minimum of 5 more years of a QB on a rookie contract whereas if you draft one in 2022 who isn't better then you have only 4 years because of the 1 year overlap between Jones and new QB.
You can't draft a quarterback in round 1 that isn't an improvement on Jones. Jones himself has shown he wasn't a first round talent.
I'm not in favor of forcing a QB pick. I'm on favor of picking a quarterback that merits being picked high in the first round.
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In comment 15432487 Go Terps said:
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I expect we'll see 3-5 QBs drafted in the first round. That's just the economics of the game in the present day. Unless you have an unquestioned stud at QB it makes sense to stay in a rookie contract at the position.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
I agree the Giants are not in a position that they shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises, but the question is are they in a position that they HAVE TO draft a QB even if they do not think he is an improvement over Jones and someone at another position of need looks to be a stud? I would argue that since Jones is on a rookie contract in 2022 we are in a position where we can say if there isn't a better option in the draft grin and bear it and draft one in 2023 (perhaps using 2nd 1st as leverage to get an additional 1st in 2023) because then you will have a minimum of 5 more years of a QB on a rookie contract whereas if you draft one in 2022 who isn't better then you have only 4 years because of the 1 year overlap between Jones and new QB.
You can't draft a quarterback in round 1 that isn't an improvement on Jones. Jones himself has shown he wasn't a first round talent.
I'm not in favor of forcing a QB pick. I'm on favor of picking a quarterback that merits being picked high in the first round.
Okay, as I read your post it seemed that you were saying that you pick a QB at all costs regardless of whether it is an improvement over Jones. I know it happens sometimes when I post. I read things knowing what I mean to say so I don't realize when it is not coming out how I intended.
There are only about 8-10 teams that shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises. The Giants are not one of those teams.
I agree the Giants are not in a position that they shouldn't be considering drafting a QB if the opportunity arises, but the question is are they in a position that they HAVE TO draft a QB even if they do not think he is an improvement over Jones and someone at another position of need looks to be a stud? I would argue that since Jones is on a rookie contract in 2022 we are in a position where we can say if there isn't a better option in the draft grin and bear it and draft one in 2023 (perhaps using 2nd 1st as leverage to get an additional 1st in 2023) because then you will have a minimum of 5 more years of a QB on a rookie contract whereas if you draft one in 2022 who isn't better then you have only 4 years because of the 1 year overlap between Jones and new QB.
You can't draft a quarterback in round 1 that isn't an improvement on Jones. Jones himself has shown he wasn't a first round talent.
I'm not in favor of forcing a QB pick. I'm on favor of picking a quarterback that merits being picked high in the first round.
Okay, as I read your post it seemed that you were saying that you pick a QB at all costs regardless of whether it is an improvement over Jones. I know it happens sometimes when I post. I read things knowing what I mean to say so I don't realize when it is not coming out how I intended.
I see his point as less extreme than that -- that most teams in the league should at least ponder taking a QB in the draft if one happens to be available (not necessarily in the first round) that could help improve their immediate or eventual situation. Few teams are set for a decade with their QB. Even some teams who currently have a capable starting QB may not have reason to feel "set" there due to economics.
Dallas
Tampa (that fucking guy is going to play forever)
LA Rams
Arizona
Seattle (assuming all is well behind the scenes)
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Kansas City
LA Chargers
If I'm one of those ten teams, quarterback doesn't need to be on my radar. I'm set...I think I've got a guy with whom I can win a Super Bowl.
Everyone else, I'm jumping at the opportunity to improve and/or get cheaper at the position. The other 22 teams are in different places. Some are assessing recent draft picks, others moving on from declining vets, GB has an uncertain future with Rodgers, etc.
But anyway if you're not one of those ten teams listed above, I think you should at least be open to it if the opportunity arises. Take the Jets for example. If they scout Malik Willis and give him a similar or better grade than Zack Wilson, why not draft Willis and trade Wilson? You've improved at QB according to your scouts, you've gotten something back for Wilson, and you've added a year of rookie QB contract status.
Unless there's a big change in the CBA rules at some point I think this is the way things will eventually trend. The "franchise QB" concept is going to be antiquated except in the cases of the elite QB talents.
Why? Because you never really know what's going to hit. There is such an art, and then coaching and development, trying to find one.
And if you get fortunate to find one, even if you are a team that has a good in one in place, it's an incredible asset at the most important position. It can help cover for an injury or become trade bait for future compensation.
SO you have to be careful with the "draft a QB every year" stuff.
If Rudolph doesn't step out of bounds, Jones has 2 TD and everyone goes wow Jones was GREAT today! But he did, and Garrett calls 3 runs up the middle and gets stuffed. Again, not on Jones.
If Judge doesn't take the ball out of his hands multiple times against Washington or Atlanta, he probably has 2 or 3 more TD on the season. But he did, so the stat line remains what it is.
The context needed was that Jones was screwed out of more touchdowns based on the above? That's great.
I wonder if any other QB is the NFL also had players not make plays for them in or near the end zone or a RB that ran in a short touchdown instead of passing it in. What do you think?
His terrible luck alone is reason to move on at quarterback.
Dallas
Tampa (that fucking guy is going to play forever)
LA Rams
Arizona
Seattle (assuming all is well behind the scenes)
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Kansas City
LA Chargers
I think Carr is close to playing his way to that group. He is really having a nice year. And for all the shit Tua gets, and I am not even a fan of his - he has been decimated by a poor coaching staff and injuries as well. His numbers arent as awful as people have suggested.
Tampa (that fucking guy is going to play forever)
LA Rams
Arizona
Seattle (assuming all is well behind the scenes)
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Kansas City
LA Chargers
in addition to GB (which offers it's own version of set at QB for this year situation) are making the playoffs.
Tell me again about how NFL franchises are winning without a franchise QB and how it's a "team" game....
SO you have to be careful with the "draft a QB every year" stuff.
It's worth it. That's where you need good coaching and management to properly manage that.
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QB controversies are ,historically, disastrous for NFL franchises...
SO you have to be careful with the "draft a QB every year" stuff.
It's worth it. That's where you need good coaching and management to properly manage that.
Fact.
You need a coach/front office that is experienced and trusted to survive it ... otherwise it consumes the organization and costs people their jobs....that's why - generally speaking - teams avoid it.
Dude is legit.