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Daniel Jones and Product Market Fit

GiantTuff1 : 10/28/2021 6:16 pm
I'm not sure how familiar you might be with the startup world and product development in general, but there is an expression in the community that describes when you know a product is going to be an enormous success and that it's time to go all-in with time and dollars to scale to the moon. It's called Product Market Fit.

The somewhat funny (and sad) problem is the vast majority of entrepreneurs have difficulty identifying the exact moment when Product Market Fit occurs... They may talk to a handful of potential customers who give good feedback, or they hear from all their friends and colleagues about how good of an idea they have, or their product returns some positive results in market surveys or tests. While nice, none of those things means they have reached PMF. Many entrepreneurs unknowingly wear blinders because they have spent so much time on their babies, and nurtured their ideas to the point that they may unconsciously be cherry picking positive feedback over recognizing obvious red flags, or fail to consider other research angles for fear that something bad will come up. It is very common that entrepreneurs will confuse themselves into thinking that their idea is worth quitting their jobs, or spending their life savings, only to find themselves a year or two later without a shirt and little to no customers.

The question is why is it so confusing to identify Product Market Fit?
Because the debate over the product -- much like the debate over Daniels Jones -- has so many reasons as to why something may or may not be working. Lots of justification occurs on the product team end for the confused entrepreneur to bet the farm.

To avoid this pitfall, savvy entrepreneurs have developed a fairly simple way to analyze the moment of Product Market Fit. There's no justifications or debate. The measure is simply... are you so busy that you are having trouble keeping up with customer demand, or keeping product on the shelves, with no end in sight? If that is happening, then you have Product Market Fit. Startup veterans will joke with new entrepreneurs, "Trust me, you'll know when you have it." It's not something you can split hairs with debating.

The debate on BBI about Daniel Jones reminds me of the debates in the startup world over Product Market Fit. I have been a fan of Jones as a person, and hope(d) he would develop as a player. But to me, it should be so obvious that there is no question. If you have to ask so many questions, it's highly likely it won't turn out.

Put it this way.

If you were entering into a marriage (or second contract) with someone it needs to be a "Hell Yeah!" and not a "Well I think they can develop into who we want them to be." If it's not the latter, you need to run from the altar. Jones may be serviceable, but he is not a "Hell Yeah" for me. And if that's the case, Daniel Jones is not a marriage I'm ready to pay to enter. And if he is not, then what the hell are we doing?

The Giants need the proof to be so obvious it punches them in the face and they say "There is absolutely no way we can let this guy go!", rather than "Well someday he might be a thing." So far it hasn't been obvious, and it's a problem.

Like young entrepreneurs the Giants need to recognize self dilution to not risk more wasted time and investment than is necessary. If we don't reach Product Market Fit with Jones, it's time to find another product at QB to test. If we aren't screaming after the season to keep him, then it's time to move on.
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Nice idea by the OP...  
bw in dc : 10/28/2021 9:03 pm : link
Good read.

I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.

So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.
RE: Nice idea by the OP...  
GiantTuff1 : 10/28/2021 9:13 pm : link
In comment 15433033 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Good read.

I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.

So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.


I agree with the core sentiment that this could be true but would counter that the three years of Jones is the “test and prodding period”. Can Jones start setting the world on fire? Sure. But the more time passes, especially in this era of football, it is less and less likely that he is one of those top guys if he hasn’t shown us already or does so in a hurry. That is frightening, especially if the Giants continue to be operating in a reactionary and delayed fashion.
RE: RE: By this take  
Giants73 : 10/28/2021 9:17 pm : link
In comment 15433031 GiantTuff1 said:
Quote:
In comment 15433016 Giants73 said:


Quote:


The Giants should have cut bait with Eli Manning and Phil Simms. Both of which were widely debated and trashed during their initial years in the league. Stupid analogy to get a point across you want to get across; by pretending that you have intelligence.



Are you a dickhead or only play one on a message board?

The two aren’t mutually exclusive just because you broad brush how you think “everyone” felt about Simms and Eli. I thought Eli had shown enough statistically and in his ability to win and how he won especially in that era of football to demonstrate he was a franchise QB. Jones has not done that. That’s for me, and I share one perspective whether you think it’s pretending to be intelligent or not.

Where is the broad brush, if you were around when both were initially in the league both were highly debated as not good and bad picks. I believe that you may be broad brushing how people feel about Jones do to a few posters here and some bent media figures who were blindsided by the pick because they thought the Giants should have taken the Great Haskins or the next L.T Josh Allen. How you as an individual in what “you” thought about Manning or what you think about Jones is irrelevant. Unless you as an individual is the largest market share when it comes to NFL QBs.
RE: Nice idea by the OP...  
Producer : 10/28/2021 9:25 pm : link
In comment 15433033 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Good read.

I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.

So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.


I think there is a lot of actionable truth in what the OP is saying. Of course you could quit on a QB prematurely, but the question is what is the probability a mediocre QB will turn into an elite one and compare that with the opportunity cost.

You spend four or five seasons trying to figure out if Jones is the guy? The years are the most precious resource we have and we treat them as if they are nothing, and we are spending them on a low probability event. It's, frankly, stupid management, if we go years 4 and 5 years without any backup or transition plan.
OP Completely Misdiagnosed the Issue  
giantstock : 10/28/2021 9:26 pm : link
What he is missing is that those startup companies that found their "Market Fit" had a viable product ready and capable for launch.

A lot of businesses fail due to some misdiagnosis. The OP is doing the same.

Not saying Jones is or isn't - but this Giants Product is really not worthy to be put out in the open market. It's being "Forced/Rushed" even though it's not ready.
Respectfully, I disagree.  
Dennis : 10/28/2021 9:26 pm : link
I found your metaphor of PMF interesting, and some parts of your argument do seem relevant to me. Your comparison certainly made me think and consider, but I find it too black and white. It seems to me to be an argument for the "ends justifying the means", and for me, it's too dramatic.
I like Jones also, and I also can see why it's hard to evaluate his worth and ability, because of his inconsistency, injuries, the state of the offensive line, etc.
I simply don't know what to make of him, and the whole situation. If I was forced to make a choice, I would choose to make further changes to upgrading the offensive line first, because no matter who the QB is, the OL has to be able to work well.
Also, your point about the running from the alter if one has doubts; I'm a marriage counselor, and I know of many marriages where partners had doubts, and wound up having a good marriage, and other relationships where partners were wild about each other, but couldn't make things work. Things are simply more complicated than what appears to be true on the surface.
Best regards, Dennis
Ok I'll Bite...  
Doug in MA : 10/28/2021 9:35 pm : link
...was Drew Brees a market fit in San Diego?
Tannehill in Miami? Stafford in Detroit?  
Tom in NY : 10/28/2021 10:01 pm : link
Some wines take longer to mature than others.

As I see this thread has turned into a giant circle jerk for the anti-Daniel Jones crowd, I'll just leave the above thoughts as the counter argument. There are countless other QBs that are not immediate successes.

BTW, how did Aaron Rodgers look his first 3 seasons? Oh yeah, we didn't know as he never got on the field.
ok..  
Producer : 10/28/2021 10:05 pm : link
In Brees' third full season he was a pro-bowler and the Chargers were a playoff team.

In Stafford's 3rd season he threw for 5000 yards and 41 TDs and the Lions were a playoff team.

Please stop with these embarrassing comparisons.
Brees  
Giants73 : 10/28/2021 10:17 pm : link
Third season he was 2-9.
I said third *full* season  
Producer : 10/28/2021 10:31 pm : link
By the start of Jones' 3rd season he had started played 26 games.

By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.
RE: Good analigy  
Thunderstruck27 : 10/28/2021 10:33 pm : link
In comment 15432933 Producer said:
Quote:
And you are correct.

The naysayers are newbs.


Anal what?
These same conversations  
darren in pdx : 10/28/2021 10:34 pm : link
were happening over Eli before and after he won two Super Bowls.

But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.
RE: These same conversations  
Thunderstruck27 : 10/28/2021 10:37 pm : link
In comment 15433184 darren in pdx said:
Quote:
were happening over Eli before and after he won two Super Bowls.

But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.


Is it possible Eli had a better surrounding cast?
RE: I don't agree with the comparison  
Dukie Dimes : 10/28/2021 10:39 pm : link
In comment 15432927 csb said:
Quote:
You are equating a company and it's valuation with a person within a sports team? Do the Giants have to have a top 5 QB to win? They don't. It is all about what your team identity is and if he's the right fit for that team. Eli, Eli, Hos and Simms were never top 5 QB's but they delivered championships. The question we need to know is if he's good enough to lead this franchise to a championship. Many people on this board thought we needed to dump Eli after the 4-pick Vikings performance in '07. If you are going to keep cycling through QB's until you have the "hell ya" guy you might be waiting a generation; look at how many there have been in the last 30 years.

This is not a dynasty fantasy football draft, it's a sport where no two winning teams look the same. You are oversimplifying football to fit with your analogy.


Exactly.
RE: I said third *full* season  
Giants73 : 10/28/2021 11:40 pm : link
In comment 15433165 Producer said:
Quote:
By the start of Jones' 3rd season he had started played 26 games.

By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.

Symantec’s in the league 3 seasons, if he wasn’t good enough or healthy enough to be on the field doesn’t make a difference
Nice analogy Tuff  
cosmicj : 10/28/2021 11:59 pm : link
It’s good to look at a question from a new angle. Educational.
dude.. we just want the Giants to win  
Producer : 10/29/2021 12:01 am : link
and we don't think Jones will take us where we need to go. It's not personal. He has never shown it in the NFL. All the comparisons to other players don't work. He has almost never been great. It's laughable to say Mahomes did that and Rodgers did this. when Jones wins an MVP and a Super Bowl we won't bitch about poor performances. He is in the 20s in every key metric and the team sucks. If he had a cannon arm, or put up big numbers, or had an elite pedigree, maybe I would think differently.

He just hasn't shown it. Now you think it doesn't matter and can project eliteness from him. But we think unless you have played at an elite level, you can't project it after year 3. It's a low probability event.

Stop acting like we don't have a case. We do. I get your point, I just don't agree. But you can't even bring yourself to consider our point. I think you feel, he must be great because he has no support. But talent has something to do with it too. And Jones has played like a middling talent, at best. To go from middling to elite is difficult and rare, and impossible for most.
RE: Nice idea by the OP...  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:47 am : link
In comment 15433033 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Good read.

I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.

So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.


I see it this way.

Either a QB is just the goods and you know that 2nd season at the latest.

Or it's an Eli "winner" type, that you can't count on to dominate but you can count on to be a good leader and lift you up when it counts. And that I think is even easier to scout because that is more about traditional leadership qualities.

I know I got flack for the DJ bumbled around trying to find his chair at the Giants event thread. But to me it's pretty simple, he's clearly tough, smart, but a leader of men he is not. It's a lot of things about him but laying eyes on him confirmed it for me.

He just looks too often overwhelmed by the task at hand. And that's where I'd bring it back to product market fit. A lot of this relates to lean start up principles. When you don't test enough on the way you fail at product market fit because you build and build without verifying the things you are building people actually want, micro and macro. But Daniel Jones and those products that don't test share this thing where you have to contort yourself too much to see the m working in the broader sense. Brett Favre did some of the most bonehead plays I've ever seen but you were always like gotta respect his moxy. Even before Eli had any success I spent so much time arguing that it was going to click for him and defending his strengths because he also did some stupid things but never once did I think he was in over his head. Even in the latter part of Eli's career when he would see the rush and avoid the hit and kind of fall over, he seemed in control.

Jones isn't that. He doesn't inspire confidence unless you really, really want him to. And the Giants like some of the fans wanted to and that's the sad thing about Giants management too often they look more like fans than professionals.

NoGayne  
Producer : 10/29/2021 1:24 am : link
I like what you say about management being "more fans than professionals". They trade so much on *tradition* and *emotion*. Honestly, that stuff makes my skin crawl. Just figure out how to put a dominant team on the field. And in today's NFL it starts with a dominant QB.

I don't want the fucking feelies. I don't want to get misty-eyed by old Giants films. I don't need my QB to be an imitation of one of the greats. I don't care if they hire Giants guys or Giants family. Be ruthless and put the most dominant team together with cold analysis and cold-blooded decision making. That's what I want.

Daniel Jones seems like a really nice kid. I don't care. Can he be a killer every week? Does he have the talent to stick difficult, winning throws, routinely? Does he play at a high level with consistency, because that's what it takes. Can he be ice cold in the face of a tough rush and difficult defense? I'm not looking for a little brother. I want a champion.

I do not know why some people are inspired by him and think he can be a champion. You are right, Eli had those qualities.

Good is not good enough. Extend him and we are looking at a decade of not good enough.
RE: RE: These same conversations  
darren in pdx : 10/29/2021 1:30 am : link
In comment 15433194 Thunderstruck27 said:
Quote:
In comment 15433184 darren in pdx said:


Quote:


were happening over Eli before and after he won two Super Bowls.

But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.



Is it possible Eli had a better surrounding cast?


He absolutely did. It would be nice to have an ascending roster like that again.
...  
broadbandz : 10/29/2021 4:18 am : link
Yeah comparing sports positions to business marketing which is full of fraud is a great idea.
I’m  
Dukie Dimes : 10/29/2021 5:02 am : link
Just glad that none of you in the whole anti-Jones crowd that this thread has attracted have any say in what ultimately happens with Jones.

Using silly analogies like this to confirm what you already believe (that Jones lacks talent), you would draft a first round QB every other year in the hopes that he is a “hell yeah” guy. Given that such guys rarely turn up, you might hit on one every 5th or so draft (and that’s being kind). That’s every ten years.

Now add in the fact that you’ve lost four first round picks on QBs you given up on, so the team isn’t nearly as developed from an overall talent perspective as your rivals. Finally, include the fact that certain guys you give up on after two years do turn into championship level players (this would happen with ALL of the giants previous super bowl winning QBs), and that your “hell yeah” guy can put up good numbers but can’t win the super bowl with the lower talent level around him, and you’re in a real shitty situation.

And please don’t try to justify Eli as a “hell yeah” guy after two years. That’s plain bullshit. He was MUCH worse than Jones after his first two years. Your only justification for doing so would be to base it on his pedigree, which confirms my belief that this “hell yeah” nonsense is more about confirming a preset opinion about Jones than looking objectively at the numbers.

Bottom line - This ridiculously oversimplified analogy for finding an NFL QB is not a winning strategy. If it were, NFL GMs (who have a ton more experience and NFL knowledge than the people on here) would be using it. None, as in zero percent, do. The only first round QBs who get jettisoned within their first two years in the league either are injured or have serious deficiencies and are performing at a level WAY BELOW Jones (Haskins, for example). Using this comparison as a drafting strategy is a foolish approach.
No dude you misunderstood  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 10:22 am : link
and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.

Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.

Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.

The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.

Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.
NGD the Duke argument is flawed  
Eric on Li : 10/29/2021 10:28 am : link
In comment 15433538 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.

Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.

Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.

The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.

Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.


Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.

Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.

I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).
RE: I said third *full* season  
Doug in MA : 10/29/2021 10:30 am : link
In comment 15433165 Producer said:
Quote:
By the start of Jones' 3rd season he had started played 26 games.

By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.


a "season" is more than just games. It's practice, preseason, training camp, film room...time to learn an offense and get more comfortable with the speed of the NFL.

Do you disagree with that?
RE: NoGayne  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 10:32 am : link
In comment 15433357 Producer said:
Quote:
I like what you say about management being "more fans than professionals". They trade so much on *tradition* and *emotion*. Honestly, that stuff makes my skin crawl. Just figure out how to put a dominant team on the field. And in today's NFL it starts with a dominant QB.

I don't want the fucking feelies. I don't want to get misty-eyed by old Giants films. I don't need my QB to be an imitation of one of the greats. I don't care if they hire Giants guys or Giants family. Be ruthless and put the most dominant team together with cold analysis and cold-blooded decision making. That's what I want.

Daniel Jones seems like a really nice kid. I don't care. Can he be a killer every week? Does he have the talent to stick difficult, winning throws, routinely? Does he play at a high level with consistency, because that's what it takes. Can he be ice cold in the face of a tough rush and difficult defense? I'm not looking for a little brother. I want a champion.

I do not know why some people are inspired by him and think he can be a champion. You are right, Eli had those qualities.

Good is not good enough. Extend him and we are looking at a decade of not good enough.


Exactly, I'm a bit of a non-traditional CEO. I'll have my employees over for lunch and cook for them and I really value the personal relationships. I'm a warm person generally. And people need to understand the difference between being friendly and being friends in a professional setting.

It's good to be friendly. Friendship implies a loyalty that honestly has no place in a successful business. If someone is fucking up, I will tell them point blank. Even after I've made lunch for them. There are lots of places for feelings in business but when evaluating performance you have to take that shit out of it. And the silver spoon Mara's never learned how to do that. That is the real problem with Jones and I think you hit the nail on the head. Them and David Cutcliffe sat around telling each other they found the next Eli and it clouded their evaluation.

You know what the real tragedy is? I think DJ might have a completely different career had they taken him 17. And to all the, who knows if he would be there at 17 people it shows the problems with the Giants. To that I say who cares? He wasn't good value at 6. They say he might have gone 11 or whatever. Well there is a big difference in the value chart of the 6th and 11th pick. And you can get away with a few of those moves but the Giants are consistently "falling in love" with players and ignoring value. And that adds up. Always. And that's what we see with them they've confused and bastardized two important concepts.

1. Emotions / Feelings have a vital role in business
2. Math / Valuation is increasingly important in business and sports especially with a hard cap

Go with your gut by all means, but this is where you see people like JJ confused because it seems engrained in the culture. Understand the math COMPLETELY have objective systems built on value and deep knowledge of statistics and once you understand make choices with that understanding. JJ and the Giants seem to think as long as you have the "spreadsheets" you can just go with whatever your feelings tell you and that completely misunderstands how to properly leverage it.
RE: NGD the Duke argument is flawed  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 10:34 am : link
In comment 15433545 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15433538 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.

Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.

Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.

The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.

Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.



Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.

Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.

I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).


Yeah but Ole Miss was in the SEC, again, the #6 pick SHOULD do all of that. And put up better stats with the level of teams Duke plays. Eli had much better stats in a much better conference and had more than a few signature wins. What were DJs signature wins? To your point everyone goes to a bowl.
To say he wasn't good value at #6  
mittenedman : 10/29/2021 10:39 am : link
but was good value at #17 is silly and shows you how petty you're being in trying to knock the Giants at this point.
CEO's, seasoned entrepreneurs, cliche business jargon  
csb : 10/29/2021 10:41 am : link
Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.
RE: CEO's, seasoned entrepreneurs, cliche business jargon  
JB_in_DC : 10/29/2021 10:47 am : link
In comment 15433555 csb said:
Quote:
Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.


lol yeah I'm getting queasy. Blessed to share this forum with so many luminaries...
RE: RE: NGD the Duke argument is flawed  
Eric on Li : 10/29/2021 11:28 am : link
In comment 15433550 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
In comment 15433545 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15433538 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.

Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.

Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.

The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.

Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.



Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.

Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.

I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).



Yeah but Ole Miss was in the SEC, again, the #6 pick SHOULD do all of that. And put up better stats with the level of teams Duke plays. Eli had much better stats in a much better conference and had more than a few signature wins. What were DJs signature wins? To your point everyone goes to a bowl.


a) The early 2000's SEC was a strong conference but it wasn't the SEC of today. It just wasn't. From 1995-2005 the only 3 SEC NC winners were UF '96 (Spurrier), TEN '98 (peyton), and LSU/USC split in 2003 (saban). Miami, OSU, OU, FSU, Tex, USC were all better than the SEC at that time. Bama was a dead program and none of the other teams were as strong or stronger than they are today.

b) In his first year as a starter he beat ND on the road, in his last year there he played Clemson's NC team on the road in November and imo it was his best tape of his last year there, he beat a Miami team that sent like 15 guys to the NFL on the road in a monsoon, and hung like 50 on a ranked Temple team that had a few NFL guys on the D in his final bowl game. Over his 3 years he beat respectable ACC teams that had NFL'ers on them like UNC (went 3-0 against them and they were ranked at least once). He wasn't playing the MAC or in Wyoming. He had a winning record in a respectable conference with some good performances against really good competition.
NGD  
Eric on Li : 10/29/2021 11:53 am : link
I respect that you generally like to get in the weeds and go deep on relevant subject matter so I'd encourage you to watch this 8m video of Jones vs. Clemson. This was a road game against the Wilkins/Ferrell/Lawrence/Simmons defense that won a championship about a month after this game. They were a 28 point underdog (and ended up losing by 29). But if the actual video of the first 3 Q's isn't elevating a talent deficient team I don't know what is. Despite about 10 drops from his WRs and constant pressure he had his team in the game into the 3Q against a legitimate juggernaut (0 turnovers too). some specific positive splash plays (deep balls, scrambles, etc) that are the type of plays still showing up in his game 1:28, 2:03, 4:42, 4:48.

I watch a lot of ACC and was lukewarm on Jones during his draft year until I went back and watched this one and the Temple bowl game. Clemson's D was as good as CFB gets and he competed despite taking a beating. Against Temple he was out of the game with some injury for a little bit and Duke was losing and he came back in and proceeded to just destroy them. Threw 5 tds and ran for another. Rock Ya Sin and his now teammate Quincy Roche were on that D.
Daniel Jones (Duke QB #17) vs. Clemson (2018) - ( New Window )
This is the point of the thread though  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:03 pm : link
you need to basically zone in on anecdotes and contort the data to make DJ look good.

DJ's last 3 years in college vs. Eli's

DJ:

6.4 Y/A 52 TDs 29 INTs Rating 122.9

Duke W% these 3 years: .5%

3 years after: 31.4%

Eli:

7.5 Y/A 81 TDs 35 INTs Rating 139.5

Ole Miss W% these 3 years: 64.8%

3 years after: 32.5%


We can debate how difficult the SEC was the level of competition around the players etc. But the numbers are pretty clear, Eli performed better and the team had a bigger drop-off after the respective players left. This is actually the point of the thread. People are constantly contorting to make DJ look better and you just didn't need to do that as much with Eli.
And I do agree with you  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:05 pm : link
DJ can occasionally put together full games where you go "this guy is the goods" but it's not consistent enough because I would say his internal makeup isn't where it needs to be. Because I don't think it's about the physical skills and this is where I think the Giants really failed with his evaluation and fail pretty consistently.
There are plenty of times I've been "wowed" by Jones...  
Doug in MA : 10/29/2021 12:13 pm : link
Drives that he's put together that utilize his legs and downfield arm ability. That's when I think "hes got the goods" and just needs to find a way to be consistent with it...which he's done this year when compared to last season and expect will get better with every game.

His pocket awareness has vastly improved. I know this because even with a terrible line has taken less sacks and lost fewer fumbles.

Do you not see this? What team are you watching?
I think that's the point of this thread though  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:18 pm : link
you have to talk yourself into the idea that this is going to translate to wins.

DJ helmed teams tend to lose these close games and Eli teams did not have that tendency.

Eli would also make mistakes and would find a way to overcome them. DJ makes mistakes where you say "that's where he lost the game"

And this is where anyone should be able to concede, of course it's possible it's just bad surroundings, bad coaching bad etc. and there are exceptions but that's where I actually really like this analogy. The lions share of QBs and products that you have to explain away why they aren't working too much it's just because they don't work, not because of extenuating circumstances.
RE: There are plenty of times I've been  
Producer : 10/29/2021 12:19 pm : link
In comment 15433650 Doug in MA said:
Quote:
Drives that he's put together that utilize his legs and downfield arm ability. That's when I think "hes got the goods" and just needs to find a way to be consistent with it...which he's done this year when compared to last season and expect will get better with every game.

His pocket awareness has vastly improved. I know this because even with a terrible line has taken less sacks and lost fewer fumbles.

Do you not see this? What team are you watching?


I am rarely wowed by Jones and, most, crucially, he lacks any kind of consistency where he leads to team to wins based on his ability to pass. His arm talent is uninspiring, he has accuracy issues, and he lacks the ability and consistency to make tough, winning throws into tough coverages.
RE: This is the point of the thread though  
JB_in_DC : 10/29/2021 12:21 pm : link
In comment 15433638 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
DJ's last 3 years in college


Does anyone think defensive coordinators of the Giants' 2021 opponents are watching Jones college tape to prepare for our games? Of course not. Regardless of where you stand on him as an NFL QB, worthy of a contract, etc, etc - it is just plain nonsensical at this point to rehash the college career of a guy with two and a half seasons of NFL tape.
RE: This is the point of the thread though  
Eric on Li : 10/29/2021 12:21 pm : link
In comment 15433638 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
you need to basically zone in on anecdotes and contort the data to make DJ look good.

DJ's last 3 years in college vs. Eli's

DJ:

6.4 Y/A 52 TDs 29 INTs Rating 122.9

Duke W% these 3 years: .5%

3 years after: 31.4%

Eli:

7.5 Y/A 81 TDs 35 INTs Rating 139.5

Ole Miss W% these 3 years: 64.8%

3 years after: 32.5%


We can debate how difficult the SEC was the level of competition around the players etc. But the numbers are pretty clear, Eli performed better and the team had a bigger drop-off after the respective players left. This is actually the point of the thread. People are constantly contorting to make DJ look better and you just didn't need to do that as much with Eli.


a) these numbers are actually pretty similar (which is 1 of the reasons why there have always been Jones to Eli comparisons) both in terms of aggregate statistical production (~10% difference in QB Rating, not counting Jones' likely edge with rushing #'s) and contextual situation (quality of teammates, opponents, and same head coach).

b) to expand on the similarity in the big picture, both took bad teams to winning seasons during the years they were there, winning multiple bowl games and competing against quality conference competition.

yes Eli was regarded better and had better production - that's why he was a 1OA pick and Jones wasn't. But part of him being regarded better was the notoriety he had entering college whereas Jones was a complete unknown.

also separately Eli is a HOF'er. Any QB comparisons to him that come close even if they fall short are not something to immediately dismiss. Which has again been 1 of the reasons why comparisons to Eli have been a selling point for Jones even though the 2 have very different skill sets. through 2.5 years in the NFL there's no debate that Jones is on a different level athletically but imo he's also more accurate as a passer and developed to be less turnover prone than Eli was. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. first season with 4k yards was year 6. First year average 7 y/a was also year 6.
RE: CEO's, seasoned entrepreneurs, cliche business jargon  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:21 pm : link
In comment 15433555 csb said:
Quote:
Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.


Open a thread on Product Market Fit to complain about business jargon? Product Market Fit IS business jargon. Surprise surprise. Do you open a thread about wine and get upset when people talk about their experience running a vineyard. This comment adds zero value and is actually a pretty stupid one too given the thread title.
Gayne  
Doug in MA : 10/29/2021 12:23 pm : link
He's is showing improvement though. So it may not be as quickly as some but he is. So it may take him longer than Patrick Mahomes and he may never reach that level but still...he's not regressing.

I don't have to convince myself of anything. Kid came from Duke and his progression, understandably, may take longer. That being said he's so much better now than this point last year. He's one of the most accurate passers in the NFL downfield and incredibly mobile.

Ok  
NoGainDayne : 10/29/2021 12:24 pm : link
1) I wouldn't call them all that similar

2) There is a mountain of difference between a 65% winning % and a 50%

3) 17 TDs a season in college isn't very good. 27 is much better

4) 6.4 Y/A is fairly pathetic

Honestly Eli's numbers aren't great compared to many #1 picks. You had to project his leadership. Jones stats are terrible for a #6 pick and the Giants very clearly overprojected his intangibles, many outside of their building new that from the jump.
Geez  
gidiefor : Mod : 10/29/2021 12:42 pm : link
and I thought talent evaluation was made based on a guy's ability to play football

Medic!!!!
RE: Ok  
Eric on Li : 10/29/2021 12:45 pm : link
In comment 15433673 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
1) I wouldn't call them all that similar

2) There is a mountain of difference between a 65% winning % and a 50%

3) 17 TDs a season in college isn't very good. 27 is much better

4) 6.4 Y/A is fairly pathetic

Honestly Eli's numbers aren't great compared to many #1 picks. You had to project his leadership. Jones stats are terrible for a #6 pick and the Giants very clearly overprojected his intangibles, many outside of their building new that from the jump.


1. ok agree to disagree (see the next 2 points).
2. Jones went 15-11 his last 2 seasons. Eli was 17-9. Both went 2-0 in bowl games.
3. Jones had 17 rushing Tds in college on top of the 52 passing which bridges the difference in total TDs. He also had fewer INTs than Eli did.
4. at this point aren't their NFL y/a more relevant than college? I mean he's been over 7 all year despite losing pretty much all of his receivers. It took Eli 6 years to do that.

I'm not sure what's so hard to admit about the fact that arguing to move on from Jones now would have meant arguing against Eli in 2007. There is 0 guarantee Jones will ultimately work out the way Eli did but you'd think it would at least give some pause. At least while he's continuing to show improvement.
I can just see this at the next combine  
gidiefor : Mod : 10/29/2021 12:49 pm : link
Coach/player evaluator: "So tell me young man - I see that you are wearing the NFL prescribed underwear at our interview today, very nice." Nods head.
"Say. Before we watch some film together, what do you see as your ideal Market fit?"


Player/interviewee: "Well honestly, my agent and I we are into flavored mineral waters. I can see myself being the voice of Lavender Mineral Water. We have sat with a few test groups and had the highest ratings when watchers are polled after a say the word Lavender. Do you have any Lavender in your team uniforms?"



RE: RE: CEO's, seasoned entrepreneurs, cliche business jargon  
csb : 10/29/2021 5:12 pm : link
In comment 15433668 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
In comment 15433555 csb said:


Quote:


Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.



Open a thread on Product Market Fit to complain about business jargon? Product Market Fit IS business jargon. Surprise surprise. Do you open a thread about wine and get upset when people talk about their experience running a vineyard. This comment adds zero value and is actually a pretty stupid one too given the thread title.


Relax dude it was a joke; but I'll bite. If I opened a thread about wine it would be an NFT so I would expect it to only be about wine. This is a football thread - I was curious by the title so I read and responded that I thought the analogy was a stretch. I then observed a bunch of people spitting out industry jargon and shook my head at how big a stretch this comparison was. If you can't laugh at a humble brag comment after you've shared your "CEO playbook" then you probably have some blind spots to address.

We had the same exact debates about Eli on BBI, and it wasn't until he retired that the Eli bashing subsided. None of us know if Jones is the guy, but it's close enough that it makes sense that there are people on both sides of the argument. The football arguments in this thread have merit, however none of us know if he's the guy but we'll each argue our side. I think DJ can be a winner, but he needs a team around him. Eli's first 3 years he had a solid team around him; he had a great oline, solid receivers and maybe the best RB in football at the time. DJ has been surrounded by an injured RB, no WR's and a terrible line. I'm not making excuses for him but I don't know that we've seen what he can do with at least average weapons around him. He's good enough to be a starter in this league, just not sure if he's good enough to win a SB. Hopefully we can learn enough in the next 10 games to know if we should extend him or be looking for a QB in the draft this year.

PS - I chuckle every time I see your handle; I wish I could forget my memories of watching Ron Dayne on 3rd and 1
RE: I can just see this at the next combine  
steve in ky : 10/29/2021 5:15 pm : link
In comment 15433704 gidiefor said:
Quote:
Coach/player evaluator: "So tell me young man - I see that you are wearing the NFL prescribed underwear at our interview today, very nice." Nods head.
"Say. Before we watch some film together, what do you see as your ideal Market fit?"


Player/interviewee: "Well honestly, my agent and I we are into flavored mineral waters. I can see myself being the voice of Lavender Mineral Water. We have sat with a few test groups and had the highest ratings when watchers are polled after a say the word Lavender. Do you have any Lavender in your team uniforms?"




That and then have all the prospects play a game of musical chairs in order to weed out those with weak leadership skills.
RE: CEO's, seasoned entrepreneurs, cliche business jargon  
Dukie Dimes : 10/29/2021 6:04 pm : link
In comment 15433555 csb said:
Quote:
Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.


Seriously. This thread has so much bullshit in it, it’s coming out at the seams.
Daniel will be...  
Stan in LA : 10/29/2021 7:37 pm : link
fine.
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