I'm not sure how familiar you might be with the startup world and product development in general, but there is an expression in the community that describes when you know a product is going to be an enormous success and that it's time to go all-in with time and dollars to scale to the moon. It's called Product Market Fit.
The somewhat funny (and sad) problem is the vast majority of entrepreneurs have difficulty identifying the exact moment when Product Market Fit occurs... They may talk to a handful of potential customers who give good feedback, or they hear from all their friends and colleagues about how good of an idea they have, or their product returns some positive results in market surveys or tests. While nice, none of those things means they have reached PMF. Many entrepreneurs unknowingly wear blinders because they have spent so much time on their babies, and nurtured their ideas to the point that they may unconsciously be cherry picking positive feedback over recognizing obvious red flags, or fail to consider other research angles for fear that something bad will come up. It is very common that entrepreneurs will confuse themselves into thinking that their idea is worth quitting their jobs, or spending their life savings, only to find themselves a year or two later without a shirt and little to no customers.
The question is why is it so confusing to identify Product Market Fit?
Because the debate over the product -- much like the debate over Daniels Jones -- has so many reasons as to why something may or may not be working. Lots of justification occurs on the product team end for the confused entrepreneur to bet the farm.
To avoid this pitfall, savvy entrepreneurs have developed a fairly simple way to analyze the moment of Product Market Fit. There's no justifications or debate. The measure is simply... are you so busy that you are having trouble keeping up with customer demand, or keeping product on the shelves, with no end in sight? If that is happening, then you have Product Market Fit. Startup veterans will joke with new entrepreneurs, "Trust me, you'll know when you have it." It's not something you can split hairs with debating.
The debate on BBI about Daniel Jones reminds me of the debates in the startup world over Product Market Fit. I have been a fan of Jones as a person, and hope(d) he would develop as a player. But to me, it should be so obvious that there is no question. If you have to ask so many questions, it's highly likely it won't turn out.
Put it this way.
If you were entering into a marriage (or second contract) with someone it needs to be a "Hell Yeah!" and not a "Well I think they can develop into who we want them to be." If it's not the latter, you need to run from the altar. Jones may be serviceable, but he is not a "Hell Yeah" for me. And if that's the case, Daniel Jones is not a marriage I'm ready to pay to enter. And if he is not, then what the hell are we doing?
The Giants need the proof to be so obvious it punches them in the face and they say "There is absolutely no way we can let this guy go!", rather than "Well someday he might be a thing." So far it hasn't been obvious, and it's a problem.
Like young entrepreneurs the Giants need to recognize self dilution to not risk more wasted time and investment than is necessary. If we don't reach Product Market Fit with Jones, it's time to find another product at QB to test. If we aren't screaming after the season to keep him, then it's time to move on.
The latter largely depends on marketing. The former does not. Your entire analogy is fatally flawed. ( and for the record, I think he should be replaced)
This is not a dynasty fantasy football draft, it's a sport where no two winning teams look the same. You are oversimplifying football to fit with your analogy.
The naysayers are newbs.
Love it or leave it, huh? Seems I've heard that retrograde rallying cry before.
This misses the point entirely and it is effectively a straw man argument. he is not saying the quarterback is the whole team, and yet at the same time we all know the quarterback is a lot more than 1/22 of what makes a team win in today's NFL.
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Its a team game, not an individual product. If all 21 others suck there isn't much you can do. I'm not saying that is the case here, but 1 player can not carry everyone no matter how good.
This misses the point entirely and it is effectively a straw man argument. he is not saying the quarterback is the whole team, and yet at the same time we all know the quarterback is a lot more than 1/22 of what makes a team win in today's NFL.
So, theoretically, Patrick Mahomes should have been able to pull out a win against Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl?
News flash: he didn't, thanks to working behind a makeshift offensive line and despite having great weapons in Kelce and Hill.
Point is that not everything lies in the quarterback's hands.
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In comment 15432934 PatersonPlank said:
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Its a team game, not an individual product. If all 21 others suck there isn't much you can do. I'm not saying that is the case here, but 1 player can not carry everyone no matter how good.
This misses the point entirely and it is effectively a straw man argument. he is not saying the quarterback is the whole team, and yet at the same time we all know the quarterback is a lot more than 1/22 of what makes a team win in today's NFL.
So, theoretically, Patrick Mahomes should have been able to pull out a win against Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl?
News flash: he didn't, thanks to working behind a makeshift offensive line and despite having great weapons in Kelce and Hill.
Point is that not everything lies in the quarterback's hands.
This reply is known as a false dilemma or an all-or-nothing fallacy.
And this is a straw man fallacy.
Literally nobody is saying that the team, ownership and coaching has nothing to do with wins and losses.
The latter largely depends on marketing. The former does not. Your entire analogy is fatally flawed. ( and for the record, I think he should be replaced)
A product can be anything that is sold. An escort service or marketing agency are products too, and those involve people. If the product doesn’t sell and drive demand in some obvious fashion, that’s an indication it’s not meeting PMF.
And who said my mind is made up? I’ve been as confounded on Jones as many here and want him to succeed badly, but I’m not seeing it yet to where I would mourn his loss because what exactly are we losing? It’s not clear to me that he can’t be easily replaced, and that’s an issue.
I would argue his rookie contract is the MVP. It’s not just this year you’re evaluating the 3 years in total and what is still to come this season. If the MVP is not working you need to iterate on the product, or pivot. We are rapidly approaching that time and it’s still not obvious, and it needs to be.
I know I know, strawman, excuses, blah blah. Rise and repeat
Three years into each of their careers if you lined up NFL executives and asked them to measure Stafford against Jones and to pick one the vast majority would take Stafford. Maybe all. He played on terrible teams but you can see he was a very good player trapped on a bad team. Is it that obvious that Jones would be elite if only he wasn’t on the Giants? Thats not clear to me, and it was much moreso for Stafford.
Are you a dickhead or only play one on a message board?
The two aren’t mutually exclusive just because you broad brush how you think “everyone” felt about Simms and Eli. I thought Eli had shown enough statistically and in his ability to win and how he won especially in that era of football to demonstrate he was a franchise QB. Jones has not done that. That’s for me, and I share one perspective whether you think it’s pretending to be intelligent or not.
I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.
So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.
I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.
So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.
I agree with the core sentiment that this could be true but would counter that the three years of Jones is the “test and prodding period”. Can Jones start setting the world on fire? Sure. But the more time passes, especially in this era of football, it is less and less likely that he is one of those top guys if he hasn’t shown us already or does so in a hurry. That is frightening, especially if the Giants continue to be operating in a reactionary and delayed fashion.
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The Giants should have cut bait with Eli Manning and Phil Simms. Both of which were widely debated and trashed during their initial years in the league. Stupid analogy to get a point across you want to get across; by pretending that you have intelligence.
Are you a dickhead or only play one on a message board?
The two aren’t mutually exclusive just because you broad brush how you think “everyone” felt about Simms and Eli. I thought Eli had shown enough statistically and in his ability to win and how he won especially in that era of football to demonstrate he was a franchise QB. Jones has not done that. That’s for me, and I share one perspective whether you think it’s pretending to be intelligent or not.
Where is the broad brush, if you were around when both were initially in the league both were highly debated as not good and bad picks. I believe that you may be broad brushing how people feel about Jones do to a few posters here and some bent media figures who were blindsided by the pick because they thought the Giants should have taken the Great Haskins or the next L.T Josh Allen. How you as an individual in what “you” thought about Manning or what you think about Jones is irrelevant. Unless you as an individual is the largest market share when it comes to NFL QBs.
I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.
So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.
I think there is a lot of actionable truth in what the OP is saying. Of course you could quit on a QB prematurely, but the question is what is the probability a mediocre QB will turn into an elite one and compare that with the opportunity cost.
You spend four or five seasons trying to figure out if Jones is the guy? The years are the most precious resource we have and we treat them as if they are nothing, and we are spending them on a low probability event. It's, frankly, stupid management, if we go years 4 and 5 years without any backup or transition plan.
A lot of businesses fail due to some misdiagnosis. The OP is doing the same.
Not saying Jones is or isn't - but this Giants Product is really not worthy to be put out in the open market. It's being "Forced/Rushed" even though it's not ready.
I like Jones also, and I also can see why it's hard to evaluate his worth and ability, because of his inconsistency, injuries, the state of the offensive line, etc.
I simply don't know what to make of him, and the whole situation. If I was forced to make a choice, I would choose to make further changes to upgrading the offensive line first, because no matter who the QB is, the OL has to be able to work well.
Also, your point about the running from the alter if one has doubts; I'm a marriage counselor, and I know of many marriages where partners had doubts, and wound up having a good marriage, and other relationships where partners were wild about each other, but couldn't make things work. Things are simply more complicated than what appears to be true on the surface.
Best regards, Dennis
As I see this thread has turned into a giant circle jerk for the anti-Daniel Jones crowd, I'll just leave the above thoughts as the counter argument. There are countless other QBs that are not immediate successes.
BTW, how did Aaron Rodgers look his first 3 seasons? Oh yeah, we didn't know as he never got on the field.
In Stafford's 3rd season he threw for 5000 yards and 41 TDs and the Lions were a playoff team.
Please stop with these embarrassing comparisons.
By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.
The naysayers are newbs.
Anal what?
But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.
But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.
Is it possible Eli had a better surrounding cast?
This is not a dynasty fantasy football draft, it's a sport where no two winning teams look the same. You are oversimplifying football to fit with your analogy.
Exactly.
By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.
Symantec’s in the league 3 seasons, if he wasn’t good enough or healthy enough to be on the field doesn’t make a difference
He just hasn't shown it. Now you think it doesn't matter and can project eliteness from him. But we think unless you have played at an elite level, you can't project it after year 3. It's a low probability event.
Stop acting like we don't have a case. We do. I get your point, I just don't agree. But you can't even bring yourself to consider our point. I think you feel, he must be great because he has no support. But talent has something to do with it too. And Jones has played like a middling talent, at best. To go from middling to elite is difficult and rare, and impossible for most.
I will counter, a bit, that products don't pop right away. You have to develop the product, test it, price it, market it, etc. Those take time.
So there is a chance Jones is going to take more time. Although christian did a nice ad-hoc analysis on another thread today trying to figure how many QBs in the last 10-15 years took more than three years to finally show they had the goods. It was basically no one...Supporting the point, Jones just hasn't shown enough to feel confident moving forward.
I see it this way.
Either a QB is just the goods and you know that 2nd season at the latest.
Or it's an Eli "winner" type, that you can't count on to dominate but you can count on to be a good leader and lift you up when it counts. And that I think is even easier to scout because that is more about traditional leadership qualities.
I know I got flack for the DJ bumbled around trying to find his chair at the Giants event thread. But to me it's pretty simple, he's clearly tough, smart, but a leader of men he is not. It's a lot of things about him but laying eyes on him confirmed it for me.
He just looks too often overwhelmed by the task at hand. And that's where I'd bring it back to product market fit. A lot of this relates to lean start up principles. When you don't test enough on the way you fail at product market fit because you build and build without verifying the things you are building people actually want, micro and macro. But Daniel Jones and those products that don't test share this thing where you have to contort yourself too much to see the m working in the broader sense. Brett Favre did some of the most bonehead plays I've ever seen but you were always like gotta respect his moxy. Even before Eli had any success I spent so much time arguing that it was going to click for him and defending his strengths because he also did some stupid things but never once did I think he was in over his head. Even in the latter part of Eli's career when he would see the rush and avoid the hit and kind of fall over, he seemed in control.
Jones isn't that. He doesn't inspire confidence unless you really, really want him to. And the Giants like some of the fans wanted to and that's the sad thing about Giants management too often they look more like fans than professionals.
I don't want the fucking feelies. I don't want to get misty-eyed by old Giants films. I don't need my QB to be an imitation of one of the greats. I don't care if they hire Giants guys or Giants family. Be ruthless and put the most dominant team together with cold analysis and cold-blooded decision making. That's what I want.
Daniel Jones seems like a really nice kid. I don't care. Can he be a killer every week? Does he have the talent to stick difficult, winning throws, routinely? Does he play at a high level with consistency, because that's what it takes. Can he be ice cold in the face of a tough rush and difficult defense? I'm not looking for a little brother. I want a champion.
I do not know why some people are inspired by him and think he can be a champion. You are right, Eli had those qualities.
Good is not good enough. Extend him and we are looking at a decade of not good enough.
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were happening over Eli before and after he won two Super Bowls.
But I was more confident in Eli one day being capable of winning a SB early in his career, not so sure about Jones yet.
Is it possible Eli had a better surrounding cast?
He absolutely did. It would be nice to have an ascending roster like that again.
Using silly analogies like this to confirm what you already believe (that Jones lacks talent), you would draft a first round QB every other year in the hopes that he is a “hell yeah” guy. Given that such guys rarely turn up, you might hit on one every 5th or so draft (and that’s being kind). That’s every ten years.
Now add in the fact that you’ve lost four first round picks on QBs you given up on, so the team isn’t nearly as developed from an overall talent perspective as your rivals. Finally, include the fact that certain guys you give up on after two years do turn into championship level players (this would happen with ALL of the giants previous super bowl winning QBs), and that your “hell yeah” guy can put up good numbers but can’t win the super bowl with the lower talent level around him, and you’re in a real shitty situation.
And please don’t try to justify Eli as a “hell yeah” guy after two years. That’s plain bullshit. He was MUCH worse than Jones after his first two years. Your only justification for doing so would be to base it on his pedigree, which confirms my belief that this “hell yeah” nonsense is more about confirming a preset opinion about Jones than looking objectively at the numbers.
Bottom line - This ridiculously oversimplified analogy for finding an NFL QB is not a winning strategy. If it were, NFL GMs (who have a ton more experience and NFL knowledge than the people on here) would be using it. None, as in zero percent, do. The only first round QBs who get jettisoned within their first two years in the league either are injured or have serious deficiencies and are performing at a level WAY BELOW Jones (Haskins, for example). Using this comparison as a drafting strategy is a foolish approach.
Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.
Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.
The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.
Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.
Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.
Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.
The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.
Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.
Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.
Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.
I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).
By the start of Brees' fourth season he had started 27 games.
a "season" is more than just games. It's practice, preseason, training camp, film room...time to learn an offense and get more comfortable with the speed of the NFL.
Do you disagree with that?
I don't want the fucking feelies. I don't want to get misty-eyed by old Giants films. I don't need my QB to be an imitation of one of the greats. I don't care if they hire Giants guys or Giants family. Be ruthless and put the most dominant team together with cold analysis and cold-blooded decision making. That's what I want.
Daniel Jones seems like a really nice kid. I don't care. Can he be a killer every week? Does he have the talent to stick difficult, winning throws, routinely? Does he play at a high level with consistency, because that's what it takes. Can he be ice cold in the face of a tough rush and difficult defense? I'm not looking for a little brother. I want a champion.
I do not know why some people are inspired by him and think he can be a champion. You are right, Eli had those qualities.
Good is not good enough. Extend him and we are looking at a decade of not good enough.
Exactly, I'm a bit of a non-traditional CEO. I'll have my employees over for lunch and cook for them and I really value the personal relationships. I'm a warm person generally. And people need to understand the difference between being friendly and being friends in a professional setting.
It's good to be friendly. Friendship implies a loyalty that honestly has no place in a successful business. If someone is fucking up, I will tell them point blank. Even after I've made lunch for them. There are lots of places for feelings in business but when evaluating performance you have to take that shit out of it. And the silver spoon Mara's never learned how to do that. That is the real problem with Jones and I think you hit the nail on the head. Them and David Cutcliffe sat around telling each other they found the next Eli and it clouded their evaluation.
You know what the real tragedy is? I think DJ might have a completely different career had they taken him 17. And to all the, who knows if he would be there at 17 people it shows the problems with the Giants. To that I say who cares? He wasn't good value at 6. They say he might have gone 11 or whatever. Well there is a big difference in the value chart of the 6th and 11th pick. And you can get away with a few of those moves but the Giants are consistently "falling in love" with players and ignoring value. And that adds up. Always. And that's what we see with them they've confused and bastardized two important concepts.
1. Emotions / Feelings have a vital role in business
2. Math / Valuation is increasingly important in business and sports especially with a hard cap
Go with your gut by all means, but this is where you see people like JJ confused because it seems engrained in the culture. Understand the math COMPLETELY have objective systems built on value and deep knowledge of statistics and once you understand make choices with that understanding. JJ and the Giants seem to think as long as you have the "spreadsheets" you can just go with whatever your feelings tell you and that completely misunderstands how to properly leverage it.
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and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.
Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.
Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.
The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.
Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.
Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.
Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.
I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).
Yeah but Ole Miss was in the SEC, again, the #6 pick SHOULD do all of that. And put up better stats with the level of teams Duke plays. Eli had much better stats in a much better conference and had more than a few signature wins. What were DJs signature wins? To your point everyone goes to a bowl.