I'm not sure how familiar you might be with the startup world and product development in general, but there is an expression in the community that describes when you know a product is going to be an enormous success and that it's time to go all-in with time and dollars to scale to the moon. It's called Product Market Fit.
The somewhat funny (and sad) problem is the vast majority of entrepreneurs have difficulty identifying the exact moment when Product Market Fit occurs... They may talk to a handful of potential customers who give good feedback, or they hear from all their friends and colleagues about how good of an idea they have, or their product returns some positive results in market surveys or tests. While nice, none of those things means they have reached PMF. Many entrepreneurs unknowingly wear blinders because they have spent so much time on their babies, and nurtured their ideas to the point that they may unconsciously be cherry picking positive feedback over recognizing obvious red flags, or fail to consider other research angles for fear that something bad will come up. It is very common that entrepreneurs will confuse themselves into thinking that their idea is worth quitting their jobs, or spending their life savings, only to find themselves a year or two later without a shirt and little to no customers.
The question is why is it so confusing to identify Product Market Fit?
Because the debate over the product -- much like the debate over Daniels Jones -- has so many reasons as to why something may or may not be working. Lots of justification occurs on the product team end for the confused entrepreneur to bet the farm.
To avoid this pitfall, savvy entrepreneurs have developed a fairly simple way to analyze the moment of Product Market Fit. There's no justifications or debate. The measure is simply... are you so busy that you are having trouble keeping up with customer demand, or keeping product on the shelves, with no end in sight? If that is happening, then you have Product Market Fit. Startup veterans will joke with new entrepreneurs, "Trust me, you'll know when you have it." It's not something you can split hairs with debating.
The debate on BBI about Daniel Jones reminds me of the debates in the startup world over Product Market Fit. I have been a fan of Jones as a person, and hope(d) he would develop as a player. But to me, it should be so obvious that there is no question. If you have to ask so many questions, it's highly likely it won't turn out.
Put it this way.
If you were entering into a marriage (or second contract) with someone it needs to be a "Hell Yeah!" and not a "Well I think they can develop into who we want them to be." If it's not the latter, you need to run from the altar. Jones may be serviceable, but he is not a "Hell Yeah" for me. And if that's the case, Daniel Jones is not a marriage I'm ready to pay to enter. And if he is not, then what the hell are we doing?
The Giants need the proof to be so obvious it punches them in the face and they say "There is absolutely no way we can let this guy go!", rather than "Well someday he might be a thing." So far it hasn't been obvious, and it's a problem.
Like young entrepreneurs the Giants need to recognize self dilution to not risk more wasted time and investment than is necessary. If we don't reach Product Market Fit with Jones, it's time to find another product at QB to test. If we aren't screaming after the season to keep him, then it's time to move on.
lol yeah I'm getting queasy. Blessed to share this forum with so many luminaries...
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In comment 15433538 NoGainDayne said:
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and apparently don't know the difference between leadership and pedigree. Which seems to be intentionally obtuse.
Eli made the Ole Miss team better. They won games they shouldn't he made plays when it counted.
Jones really did none of that. The excuse making people are doing for him now went back to college. He didn't really lift his team at Duke. And for all the Duke had a worse team stuff disregards that Ole Miss was a lesser school in the SEC.
The Giants lose many games they "should" win. The Eli manning Giants won many games they "shouldn't" win. That's the difference. And that's the point, Eli Manning had his warts but it was only people that were focusing on his facial expressions or his dumb INTs that failed to realize who he was. A leader.
Jones looks clueless at times in his facial expressions. That he and Eli shared. But Eli NEVER looked nervous on the field. I love how it is phrased as the "anti-Jones" crowd. Get a grip. I'd love for him to be any good. Some of you need him to be good and that's pretty lame TBH.
Jones was MVP in 2 of Dukes 3 bowl game wins in the last 50+ years. Yes everyone plays in bowl games now, but i'm pretty sure that only amplifies how non-competitive Duke football has generally been. In the 20-30 years since everyone get's a bowl game they've still only made 6 total and their record in non-Jones QB'd bowl games is 1-3.
Also they haven't made a bowl game or been ranked since he left.
I believe this week is the first time he will actually play another team in the NFL that rosters a teammate of his from Duke (Noah Gray).
Yeah but Ole Miss was in the SEC, again, the #6 pick SHOULD do all of that. And put up better stats with the level of teams Duke plays. Eli had much better stats in a much better conference and had more than a few signature wins. What were DJs signature wins? To your point everyone goes to a bowl.
a) The early 2000's SEC was a strong conference but it wasn't the SEC of today. It just wasn't. From 1995-2005 the only 3 SEC NC winners were UF '96 (Spurrier), TEN '98 (peyton), and LSU/USC split in 2003 (saban). Miami, OSU, OU, FSU, Tex, USC were all better than the SEC at that time. Bama was a dead program and none of the other teams were as strong or stronger than they are today.
b) In his first year as a starter he beat ND on the road, in his last year there he played Clemson's NC team on the road in November and imo it was his best tape of his last year there, he beat a Miami team that sent like 15 guys to the NFL on the road in a monsoon, and hung like 50 on a ranked Temple team that had a few NFL guys on the D in his final bowl game. Over his 3 years he beat respectable ACC teams that had NFL'ers on them like UNC (went 3-0 against them and they were ranked at least once). He wasn't playing the MAC or in Wyoming. He had a winning record in a respectable conference with some good performances against really good competition.
I watch a lot of ACC and was lukewarm on Jones during his draft year until I went back and watched this one and the Temple bowl game. Clemson's D was as good as CFB gets and he competed despite taking a beating. Against Temple he was out of the game with some injury for a little bit and Duke was losing and he came back in and proceeded to just destroy them. Threw 5 tds and ran for another. Rock Ya Sin and his now teammate Quincy Roche were on that D.
Daniel Jones (Duke QB #17) vs. Clemson (2018) - ( New Window )
DJ's last 3 years in college vs. Eli's
DJ:
6.4 Y/A 52 TDs 29 INTs Rating 122.9
Duke W% these 3 years: .5%
3 years after: 31.4%
Eli:
7.5 Y/A 81 TDs 35 INTs Rating 139.5
Ole Miss W% these 3 years: 64.8%
3 years after: 32.5%
We can debate how difficult the SEC was the level of competition around the players etc. But the numbers are pretty clear, Eli performed better and the team had a bigger drop-off after the respective players left. This is actually the point of the thread. People are constantly contorting to make DJ look better and you just didn't need to do that as much with Eli.
His pocket awareness has vastly improved. I know this because even with a terrible line has taken less sacks and lost fewer fumbles.
Do you not see this? What team are you watching?
DJ helmed teams tend to lose these close games and Eli teams did not have that tendency.
Eli would also make mistakes and would find a way to overcome them. DJ makes mistakes where you say "that's where he lost the game"
And this is where anyone should be able to concede, of course it's possible it's just bad surroundings, bad coaching bad etc. and there are exceptions but that's where I actually really like this analogy. The lions share of QBs and products that you have to explain away why they aren't working too much it's just because they don't work, not because of extenuating circumstances.
His pocket awareness has vastly improved. I know this because even with a terrible line has taken less sacks and lost fewer fumbles.
Do you not see this? What team are you watching?
I am rarely wowed by Jones and, most, crucially, he lacks any kind of consistency where he leads to team to wins based on his ability to pass. His arm talent is uninspiring, he has accuracy issues, and he lacks the ability and consistency to make tough, winning throws into tough coverages.
Does anyone think defensive coordinators of the Giants' 2021 opponents are watching Jones college tape to prepare for our games? Of course not. Regardless of where you stand on him as an NFL QB, worthy of a contract, etc, etc - it is just plain nonsensical at this point to rehash the college career of a guy with two and a half seasons of NFL tape.
DJ's last 3 years in college vs. Eli's
DJ:
6.4 Y/A 52 TDs 29 INTs Rating 122.9
Duke W% these 3 years: .5%
3 years after: 31.4%
Eli:
7.5 Y/A 81 TDs 35 INTs Rating 139.5
Ole Miss W% these 3 years: 64.8%
3 years after: 32.5%
We can debate how difficult the SEC was the level of competition around the players etc. But the numbers are pretty clear, Eli performed better and the team had a bigger drop-off after the respective players left. This is actually the point of the thread. People are constantly contorting to make DJ look better and you just didn't need to do that as much with Eli.
a) these numbers are actually pretty similar (which is 1 of the reasons why there have always been Jones to Eli comparisons) both in terms of aggregate statistical production (~10% difference in QB Rating, not counting Jones' likely edge with rushing #'s) and contextual situation (quality of teammates, opponents, and same head coach).
b) to expand on the similarity in the big picture, both took bad teams to winning seasons during the years they were there, winning multiple bowl games and competing against quality conference competition.
yes Eli was regarded better and had better production - that's why he was a 1OA pick and Jones wasn't. But part of him being regarded better was the notoriety he had entering college whereas Jones was a complete unknown.
also separately Eli is a HOF'er. Any QB comparisons to him that come close even if they fall short are not something to immediately dismiss. Which has again been 1 of the reasons why comparisons to Eli have been a selling point for Jones even though the 2 have very different skill sets. through 2.5 years in the NFL there's no debate that Jones is on a different level athletically but imo he's also more accurate as a passer and developed to be less turnover prone than Eli was. Eli didn't complete 60% of his passes until year 5. first season with 4k yards was year 6. First year average 7 y/a was also year 6.
Open a thread on Product Market Fit to complain about business jargon? Product Market Fit IS business jargon. Surprise surprise. Do you open a thread about wine and get upset when people talk about their experience running a vineyard. This comment adds zero value and is actually a pretty stupid one too given the thread title.
I don't have to convince myself of anything. Kid came from Duke and his progression, understandably, may take longer. That being said he's so much better now than this point last year. He's one of the most accurate passers in the NFL downfield and incredibly mobile.
2) There is a mountain of difference between a 65% winning % and a 50%
3) 17 TDs a season in college isn't very good. 27 is much better
4) 6.4 Y/A is fairly pathetic
Honestly Eli's numbers aren't great compared to many #1 picks. You had to project his leadership. Jones stats are terrible for a #6 pick and the Giants very clearly overprojected his intangibles, many outside of their building new that from the jump.
Medic!!!!
2) There is a mountain of difference between a 65% winning % and a 50%
3) 17 TDs a season in college isn't very good. 27 is much better
4) 6.4 Y/A is fairly pathetic
Honestly Eli's numbers aren't great compared to many #1 picks. You had to project his leadership. Jones stats are terrible for a #6 pick and the Giants very clearly overprojected his intangibles, many outside of their building new that from the jump.
1. ok agree to disagree (see the next 2 points).
2. Jones went 15-11 his last 2 seasons. Eli was 17-9. Both went 2-0 in bowl games.
3. Jones had 17 rushing Tds in college on top of the 52 passing which bridges the difference in total TDs. He also had fewer INTs than Eli did.
4. at this point aren't their NFL y/a more relevant than college? I mean he's been over 7 all year despite losing pretty much all of his receivers. It took Eli 6 years to do that.
I'm not sure what's so hard to admit about the fact that arguing to move on from Jones now would have meant arguing against Eli in 2007. There is 0 guarantee Jones will ultimately work out the way Eli did but you'd think it would at least give some pause. At least while he's continuing to show improvement.
"Say. Before we watch some film together, what do you see as your ideal Market fit?"
Player/interviewee: "Well honestly, my agent and I we are into flavored mineral waters. I can see myself being the voice of Lavender Mineral Water. We have sat with a few test groups and had the highest ratings when watchers are polled after a say the word Lavender. Do you have any Lavender in your team uniforms?"
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Not sure I've ever seen so many humble brags on a thread before; I feel more like I'm in a business school class than a football forum.
Open a thread on Product Market Fit to complain about business jargon? Product Market Fit IS business jargon. Surprise surprise. Do you open a thread about wine and get upset when people talk about their experience running a vineyard. This comment adds zero value and is actually a pretty stupid one too given the thread title.
Relax dude it was a joke; but I'll bite. If I opened a thread about wine it would be an NFT so I would expect it to only be about wine. This is a football thread - I was curious by the title so I read and responded that I thought the analogy was a stretch. I then observed a bunch of people spitting out industry jargon and shook my head at how big a stretch this comparison was. If you can't laugh at a humble brag comment after you've shared your "CEO playbook" then you probably have some blind spots to address.
We had the same exact debates about Eli on BBI, and it wasn't until he retired that the Eli bashing subsided. None of us know if Jones is the guy, but it's close enough that it makes sense that there are people on both sides of the argument. The football arguments in this thread have merit, however none of us know if he's the guy but we'll each argue our side. I think DJ can be a winner, but he needs a team around him. Eli's first 3 years he had a solid team around him; he had a great oline, solid receivers and maybe the best RB in football at the time. DJ has been surrounded by an injured RB, no WR's and a terrible line. I'm not making excuses for him but I don't know that we've seen what he can do with at least average weapons around him. He's good enough to be a starter in this league, just not sure if he's good enough to win a SB. Hopefully we can learn enough in the next 10 games to know if we should extend him or be looking for a QB in the draft this year.
PS - I chuckle every time I see your handle; I wish I could forget my memories of watching Ron Dayne on 3rd and 1
"Say. Before we watch some film together, what do you see as your ideal Market fit?"
Player/interviewee: "Well honestly, my agent and I we are into flavored mineral waters. I can see myself being the voice of Lavender Mineral Water. We have sat with a few test groups and had the highest ratings when watchers are polled after a say the word Lavender. Do you have any Lavender in your team uniforms?"
That and then have all the prospects play a game of musical chairs in order to weed out those with weak leadership skills.
Seriously. This thread has so much bullshit in it, it’s coming out at the seams.