So they are being ing Baez back which everyone thought for sure was a rental.
Noah/ Thor isn’t a Met but effectively hasn’t been in two years anyway. You still have degrom and lindor. I know comforts is gone but he’s be gone anyway
It’s because of this they are talking rebuild? He hasn’t played and they were in first place
Lagares is listed at 6'2 219 and was never an exceptional runner/base-stealer.
Mauricio is only 20 years old so there's no reason to not give it a shot. He'd be like 8 years ahead of Chris Taylor and that worked out pretty good for him.
..."He is also very fast and is adept at using that speed on the bases and in the outfield."
Post draft-
"The 21-year-old has the speed-arm combination to one day develop into a premier defensive center fielder in the major leagues."
Post call up-
"Scouting Report: Springer is known for his classic speed/power profile, but the pleasant surprise in his development has been the barrel control he has been able to demonstrate despite a swing that can get lengthy and porous in certain zones. When he makes contact, it tends to be hard contact, and his bat speed has helped to make up for some of his other mechanical shortcomings. "
He had plus-plus speed, he's slowed down but he's nothing like Mauricio. Again, MLB.com grades his current speed as a 40/80.
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expect Mauricio to grow to be at least 6'3 220 when it's all said and done if not even larger. Range and athleticism are pretty "meh" for a big league SS thanks to his size at this point but the arm is plus and the raw power is becoming plus as well.
Lagares is listed at 6'2 219 and was never an exceptional runner/base-stealer.
Mauricio is only 20 years old so there's no reason to not give it a shot. He'd be like 8 years ahead of Chris Taylor and that worked out pretty good for him.
Chris Taylor? 33 starts in CF this year, 38 steals in AA in 2013, 103 in the minors? Weird player comp.
there are very few SS over 200 pounds because plays happen faster and quickness is the most important skill. basically just Seager Bogearts and Correa.
either way this is a nebulous conversation. he's 20 years, they will try him at other positions in the 2+ years before he's ready for the big leagues, and one of them will stick. None of us know which one that will be.
he's 20 years old and you are acting like his speed/athleticism is a bonafide weakness. In his last write up Law called him a dynamic athlete. FG has his speed at 50 grade. Logenhagen said last year even with added mass his agility is good enough to stay at SS.
at age 21(?) Conforto was a LF-only, possible DH.
at age 25(?) Alonso was unplayable at 1B.
none of us have any idea where he will end up settling in long term. all of us can have opinions though, and mine is they should try him at CF because a premium position adds value and it's a better fit with his size/system need.
I remember plenty of discussion about Nimmo not having the speed/instincts to stick in CF post-knee surgery and he did pretty well this year.
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are very, very few CF's of his size with his lack of burst/speed that are starting MLB CF's, it might be "nebulous" to you but you're naming guys known for their speed (outside of Juan Lagares). Guys like Beltran, Cameron, Springer were "bigger" CF's, they also had plus-plus speed.
he's 20 years old and you are acting like his speed/athleticism is a bonafide weakness. In his last write up Law called him a dynamic athlete. FG has his speed at 50 grade. Logenhagen said last year even with added mass his agility is good enough to stay at SS.
at age 21(?) Conforto was a LF-only, possible DH.
at age 25(?) Alonso was unplayable at 1B.
none of us have any idea where he will end up settling in long term. all of us can have opinions though, and mine is they should try him at CF because a premium position adds value and it's a better fit with his size/system need.
I remember plenty of discussion about Nimmo not having the speed/instincts to stick in CF post-knee surgery and he did pretty well this year.
Longenhagen’s write up is from before the season aka a year in which he didn’t get to see him play or his growth (no 2020 season) go read Law’s most recent write up. Said he was a 40 at SS this season
And then more recently from Law
Mauricio has unbelievably loose hands and bat speed, with 10 homers already for High-A Brooklyn as a 20-year-old, although he’s also been too aggressive and given away some at-bats for the Cyclones, showing his youth and inexperience. He’s built for shortstop with the arm strength for it, but when I saw him in June he was about a 40 defender there,
Yup. Pretty much. 40 runners at 20-21 (who are likely still growing) are unlikely to be even semi passable in CF. If he were an above average runner then sure. He’s not.
And then more recently from Law
Mauricio has unbelievably loose hands and bat speed, with 10 homers already for High-A Brooklyn as a 20-year-old, although he’s also been too aggressive and given away some at-bats for the Cyclones, showing his youth and inexperience. He’s built for shortstop with the arm strength for it, but when I saw him in June he was about a 40 defender there,
strong arm and good enough range for SS but not great hands...if only there was a position that carried more value than a COF that required good range and not as many quick reaction hands plays. if such a position existed and the depth chart within the system a vacuous black hole it might be worth trying.
Makes it hard to rebuild. You are looking at 3-5 years minimum and Sandy has a mediocre draft record so no guarantee the rebuild is successful. Meantime you are paying big contracts to Lindor and watching the clock run out on guys like Alonso, Lugo etc
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• The Mets’ High-A affiliate in Brooklyn came through Wilmington a few weeks ago, with a killer heart of their lineup in Francisco Álvarez, Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty. Mauricio showed incredible bat speed from both sides of the plate, with loose, quick hands, but a tendency to rush himself and commit on pitches before he needs to. He really struggled at shortstop — his range was fine but he wasn’t positioned well on multiple plays, and didn’t show me the hands I’d like to see in a true shortstop. His reputation for defense was far better than what I saw in two games with him.
And then more recently from Law
Mauricio has unbelievably loose hands and bat speed, with 10 homers already for High-A Brooklyn as a 20-year-old, although he’s also been too aggressive and given away some at-bats for the Cyclones, showing his youth and inexperience. He’s built for shortstop with the arm strength for it, but when I saw him in June he was about a 40 defender there,
strong arm and good enough range for SS but not great hands...if only there was a position that carried more value than a COF that required good range and not as many quick reaction hands plays. if such a position existed and the depth chart within the system a vacuous black hole it might be worth trying.
Hey if you want to be snarky have at it. But naming guys like Springer and Mike Cameron as examples are laughable. But do what you want.
Makes it hard to rebuild. You are looking at 3-5 years minimum and Sandy has a mediocre draft record so no guarantee the rebuild is successful. Meantime you are paying big contracts to Lindor and watching the clock run out on guys like Alonso, Lugo etc
how many blue chip prospects are there in the entire minor leagues?
by definition shouldn't there only be a handful?
if so how is it a reasonable expectation to have multiple blue chips?
you realize there are 30 teams and at present the Mets have 3 prospects pretty unanimously in the top 50?
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Alvarez
Makes it hard to rebuild. You are looking at 3-5 years minimum and Sandy has a mediocre draft record so no guarantee the rebuild is successful. Meantime you are paying big contracts to Lindor and watching the clock run out on guys like Alonso, Lugo etc
how many blue chip prospects are there in the entire minor leagues?
by definition shouldn't there only be a handful?
if so how is it a reasonable expectation to have multiple blue chips?
you realize there are 30 teams and at present the Mets have 3 prospects pretty unanimously in the top 50?
True. But not all those teams are rebuilding
Mets farm system is not strong. It’s not awful but they need a few good drafts. That generally means drafting top ten. Are Mets really willing to commit to that?
Mets won a championship with Seaver and Golden. Degrom is on the same level and they are wasting his prime. Really sad
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that would solve a huge hole within the organization and keep a premium athlete at a premium position. There have been bigger CF's who can still go and get it because of their top end athleticism (Mike Cameron was listed at 6'2 210).
Cameron was a 5-tool guy. He stole 39 bases in AA and 123 over his minor league career. Mauricio is 19/41 career SB's (career high is 11) and is regarded as a 40 runner
Minor quibble, but was Cameron a 5 tool guy? IMO, he was missing the hit tool. Career .249 hitter.
now you are just being obtuse.
how many first rounders have been drafted at ages 17-21 having played SS and shifted to other positions as pros?
how many players have specifically converted from SS to CF?
how many 3b have converted to anything other than another corner?
how many 1b have converted to anything other than another corner?
we both know you are fully aware of how common it is for young players to convert from SS to other positions because generally speaking the most athletic start at SS. Not 3b or 1b.
Mauricio is 20 years old and despite mixed scouting reports you are sure he won't stick at SS and can't play CF even though he's never tried it. It just seems presumptuous to speak with such certainty on something so uncertain. Nobody on the planet knows which position he will end up at right now. With the hole in the system at CF I think it's very well worth seeing if he can make the switch. Lagares made the exact same move and it worked out pretty well even though he was a bigger guy and wasn't a plus plus runner.
Using today’s rankings, Seaver and Koosman were probably 70s. Cleon Jones and Matlack were 55-60.
85-88 Mets: Strawberry and Golden were 70s. Jeffries was probably a 70 too. Then they had a bunch of guys in the 55-60 range: Cone, Darling, Dykstra, Hojo, Mitchell. Throw in Aguilera,El Sid, Randy Myers
Mets current system is so far from that. You are really starting from scratch. I just don’t see all out rebuild as a good strategy with their system and drafting record. You need to rebuild the scouting and player development structures long term
I think better strategy right now is to sign two studs and hope that guys like McNeill and Dom bounce back and that guys like Megill and Petersen develop .
In other words, no more Carrasco and Neil Walkers. Sign the best pitcher and hitter even if you have to overpay. Have faith in your young guys and let them play through growing pains.
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In comment 15457406 Eric on Li said:
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that would solve a huge hole within the organization and keep a premium athlete at a premium position. There have been bigger CF's who can still go and get it because of their top end athleticism (Mike Cameron was listed at 6'2 210).
Cameron was a 5-tool guy. He stole 39 bases in AA and 123 over his minor league career. Mauricio is 19/41 career SB's (career high is 11) and is regarded as a 40 runner
Minor quibble, but was Cameron a 5 tool guy? IMO, he was missing the hit tool. Career .249 hitter.
I was really talking about as a pure athlete. The guy was viewed as an athlete who may or may not develop actual baseball skills. His athleticism was top tier which really was a major reason he was able to develop beyond maybe his actual hit tool would have dictated. Cameron was as they say a “dynamic” pure athlete.
True. But not all those teams are rebuilding
Mets farm system is not strong. It’s not awful but they need a few good drafts. That generally means drafting top ten. Are Mets really willing to commit to that?
Mets won a championship with Seaver and Golden. Degrom is on the same level and they are wasting his prime. Really sad
this is back of napkin but the 2022 draft pool should be a lock to be top 5 even if they go way into lux tax and get penalized.
Last year's 2 teams with biggest bonus pools were $14m. 3rd was 12m.
The 11th + 14th picks alone should carry a combined pool of almost $9m.
The 2nd round pick will probably be around $1.5m.
The competitive balance picks will probably be around $1m each.
So if Conforto leaves the Mets are likely looking at almost $14m just in their first 5 picks and a shot at having the biggest overall draft pool of every team - which they will absolutely need to nail.
Here are '21 Draft bonus pools, pick values - ( New Window )
Exactly. And my bet would be against butcher. Alonso was supposed to be a butcher and he isn't. Conforto was supposed to be a butcher and he wasn't (even in CF). Dom hasn't been a butcher in LF and Flores wasn't even a butcher at SS. They hesitated to move McNeil around and he's been competent everywhere he's gone. Maybe Mauricio can't play CF but no reason not to give a 20 year old a look.
They say that defense is the tool that can improve the most in the minors and we've seen that play out a bunch of times recently.
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I don't see any harm in trying him out there, though I wouldn't put money on it working out. Worst case scenario is he's a butcher and becomes a corner OF. That's what the minor leagues are for.
Exactly. And my bet would be against butcher. Alonso was supposed to be a butcher and he isn't. Conforto was supposed to be a butcher and he wasn't (even in CF). Dom hasn't been a butcher in LF and Flores wasn't even a butcher at SS. They hesitated to move McNeil around and he's been competent everywhere he's gone. Maybe Mauricio can't play CF but no reason not to give a 20 year old a look.
They say that defense is the tool that can improve the most in the minors and we've seen that play out a bunch of times recently.
Wait.. what? Dom was -9 OAA in LF this year, 1st percentile
Link - ( New Window )
One thing I am liking is there are about 3 young catchers that I am seeing in the top half of the first. It's a strong draft, and with the Mets not needing a young C with Alvarez, I'm hoping that pushes some players down.
(I know you don't draft for need, but I doubt the Mets are going C in the 1st unless there is an incredible talent they can't pass up)
Funny thing about Bryant is that he is actually better in center than in the corner OF spots
One thing I am liking is there are about 3 young catchers that I am seeing in the top half of the first. It's a strong draft, and with the Mets not needing a young C with Alvarez, I'm hoping that pushes some players down.
(I know you don't draft for need, but I doubt the Mets are going C in the 1st unless there is an incredible talent they can't pass up)
They were reportedly very high on Harry Ford. He may move off of C but I think that would suggest they would take a C if he were deemed BPA
Wait.. what? Dom was -9 OAA in LF this year, 1st percentile
he has been playable. He's made just 1 error in his last 135+ games in LF and has also made some good catches. He isn't todd hundley.
nobody would say it's his ideal position but I don't think anyone would consider it a disaster if he was the OD LF again.
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Wait.. what? Dom was -9 OAA in LF this year, 1st percentile
he has been playable. He's made just 1 error in his last 135+ games in LF and has also made some good catches. He isn't todd hundley.
nobody would say it's his ideal position but I don't think anyone would consider it a disaster if he was the OD LF again.
Last in the league in OAA (1st percentile), 17th percentile in OF jump. You’re letting “doesn’t drop the ball” color the actual truth. He’s a well below average OF. There is more to defense then looking like a complete buffoon aka Todd Hundley. If you recall your guy Sandy Alderson flat out said ideally Dom doesn’t have to play OF in 2021.. then they couldn’t work a DH agreement.
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is their amateur scouts have been a strength in the first couple rounds. Looking forward to this draft to bring an infusion of young talent.
One thing I am liking is there are about 3 young catchers that I am seeing in the top half of the first. It's a strong draft, and with the Mets not needing a young C with Alvarez, I'm hoping that pushes some players down.
(I know you don't draft for need, but I doubt the Mets are going C in the 1st unless there is an incredible talent they can't pass up)
They were reportedly very high on Harry Ford. He may move off of C but I think that would suggest they would take a C if he were deemed BPA
Yeah, I have no qualms taking a Ford (or Biggio or Harper type) that they could move off C. But I wouldn't expect them to take a player expecting to stay at C in the 1st (ie another player with Alvarez' build and limited athleticism). I won't pretend to know enough about the Cs coming out this year at this point.
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In comment 15457526 DanMetroMan said:
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Wait.. what? Dom was -9 OAA in LF this year, 1st percentile
he has been playable. He's made just 1 error in his last 135+ games in LF and has also made some good catches. He isn't todd hundley.
nobody would say it's his ideal position but I don't think anyone would consider it a disaster if he was the OD LF again.
Last in the league in OAA (1st percentile), 17th percentile in OF jump. You’re letting “doesn’t drop the ball” color the actual truth. He’s a well below average OF. There is more to defense then looking like a complete buffoon aka Todd Hundley. If you recall your guy Sandy Alderson flat out said ideally Dom doesn’t have to play OF in 2021.. then they couldn’t work a DH agreement.
everyone agrees that it's not his ideal position - the mets included. Nobody prefers to have a weak player in the field anywhere (which is why he didn't get the OD start last year).
the expectations for a 1b only player learning a new position on the fly in the big leagues out of desperation are very different than a 20 year old SS being given time to learn a new position in the minors. and Dom has been playable enough in LF that its possible he's still there at times next year.
You don’t hire a guy like that and ask him to start a five year rebuild when he likely is not going to be here
This year should be about going for it while Degrom is still here. If it doesn’t work, then the back the truck up and start a full scale rebuild next year
Funny thing about Bryant is that he is actually better in center than in the corner OF spots
Bellinger is another one too - he's ended up playing way more CF in the big leagues than he did in the minors.
You don’t hire a guy like that and ask him to start a five year rebuild when he likely is not going to be here
This year should be about going for it while Degrom is still here. If it doesn’t work, then the back the truck up and start a full scale rebuild next year
worst case it doesn't work out and presumably at that point he'd want to get traded any way so you can probably recoup a prospect via trade to help the rebuild.
I'd personally be ok going big on Scherzer and then not really do any other big multi-year deals. Hope you can get Conforto (or 1 or 2 or 3 similar) on pillow deals.
I'd rather be the team that give the next Semian a 1 year deal this year than the team that gives him $100m this year.
Nimmo (CF)
Lindor (SS)
Alonso (1B)
McNeil (RF)
JDD (3B)
Cano (DH)
Dom (LF)
McCann (C)
Guillorme (2B)
is already a workable lineup to start with. non-ideal yes but they don't need to be desperate for hitting the way they need to be desperate for pitching.
Nimmo 137
Alonso 133
JDD 130
Lindor 103
Guillorme 99
(dom and mcneil were @ 90/91 but obviously are over 100 for their careers)
2021 Mets Report Card: Dominic Smith, LF
By James Villani
Updated: October 28, 2021
2021 Mets Report Card: Dominic Smith, LF
Player Data: Age: 26 (6/15/1995), B/T: L/L
Primary Stats: 145 G, 493 PA, .244 BA, .304 OBP, .363 SLG, .667 OPS, 109 H, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 32 BB, 112 SO
Advanced Stats: 86 wRC+, 22.7% K%, 7.4% BB%, .297 BABIP, .291 xwOBA, -0.5 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR
2021 Salary: $2.55 million
Grade: D+
2021 Review
After a career year during the shortened 2020 season, big things were expected out of Dominic Smith in 2021. Like several other Mets’ offensive players, it was a year-long struggle filled with disappointment for Smith. Despite setting a career-high in at-bats and plate appearances, his overall production did not increase, instead it declined severely.
As mentioned above, Smith had a career year in 2020. He slashed .316/.377/.616 and hit ten home runs while driving in 42 runs. Smith was also an extra-base machine as he also totaled 21 doubles. For comparison’s sake, pro-rating those statistics would give Smith 25 home runs, 106 runs batted in, and 53 doubles over the same number of at-bats he got this season. In those same number of at-bats though, he only hit 11 home runs, drove in 58 runs, and tallied 20 doubles. Smith’s power fell off a cliff. Why was this?
Given the evident drop in his traditional statistics, the decline in play was also certainly evident in his underlying numbers. The below chart features some select statistics, and how severe they declined from 2020 to 2021, from Baseball Savant:
2020 Percentile Ranking 2021 Percentile Ranking Percentile Change
Avg. Exit Velocity
66th
43rd
-34.85%
Max. Exit Velocity
77th
65th
-15.58%
Hard Hit %
83rd
47th
-43.37%
Barrel %
86th
31st
– 63.95%
xwOBA
93rd
47th
– 49.46%
xBA
95th
69th
– 27.37%
xSLG
94th
48th
– 48.94%
To explain the chart simply, the decreases in the first four rows explain the decrease in the last three, as well as his decline in his traditional statistics. It appears the main reason for Smith’s woes was his inability to make solid contact. As the third row shows, Smith was barreling the ball far less. In addition, he also was not hitting the ball in the “sweet spot” at nearly the same rate. In 2020, his sweet spot percentage was 43%. It dropped three full percentage points to 40% this past season.
So, why the lack of hard contact? It can be a plethora of different things. However, one main statistic that jumps out was Smith’s 4.1-degree change in launch angle. Smith tried elevating the ball a lot more which may have led to the lack of solid contact and subsequent lack of power. For reference, Smith’s xSLG last year was a career-high and one of the best in the MLB (.563) with a launch angle of only 10.8 degrees. This year that angle ballooned to 14.9 degrees and his xSLG, like all of his other metrics/traditional statistics, severely dropped to .416.
2021 Mets Report Card: Dominic Smith, LF
"Defensively, it was also a struggle for Smith. He was forced into playing the outfield once again as the universal designated hitter rule was revoked after being instituted during the COVID-19 shortened season. Over 859.2 innings in the outfield, he had a defensive runs saved (DRS) of minus-five. This number was tied for 53rd of 72 qualified outfielders who played at least 700 innings. Also, hit total outs above average ranked in the league’s second percentile. Worth noting, Smith was much, much better when he was able to spell Pete Alonso and play first base. However, he only did so for 70.2 innings."
Dom Smith per Metsmerized - ( New Window )
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Everybody knows Mets want Stearns and Eppler is here on a one year show me deal.
You don’t hire a guy like that and ask him to start a five year rebuild when he likely is not going to be here
This year should be about going for it while Degrom is still here. If it doesn’t work, then the back the truck up and start a full scale rebuild next year
worst case it doesn't work out and presumably at that point he'd want to get traded any way so you can probably recoup a prospect via trade to help the rebuild.
I'd personally be ok going big on Scherzer and then not really do any other big multi-year deals. Hope you can get Conforto (or 1 or 2 or 3 similar) on pillow deals.
I'd rather be the team that give the next Semian a 1 year deal this year than the team that gives him $100m this year.
Nimmo (CF)
Lindor (SS)
Alonso (1B)
McNeil (RF)
JDD (3B)
Cano (DH)
Dom (LF)
McCann (C)
Guillorme (2B)
is already a workable lineup to start with. non-ideal yes but they don't need to be desperate for hitting the way they need to be desperate for pitching.
I do believe Scherzer hates the Mets but that’s because he is such a competitor. Two months on the Dodgers probably tamped his anti Mets feelings.
To get him, Mets will have to overpay but IMO it’s worth it. He and Jake are arguably the two best pitchers in baseball. Scherzer strikes me as a guy who would love to pitch alongside Degrom and take it as a challenge to match Jake.
Mets-Braves rivalry in late 90s was more intense than Mets-Nats now. Yet Glavine signed with Mets. Ultimately it is a job and 99% of humanity takes the highest paying job they can get in their chosen field.
You don’t hire a guy like that and ask him to start a five year rebuild when he likely is not going to be here
This year should be about going for it while Degrom is still here. If it doesn’t work, then the back the truck up and start a full scale rebuild next year
Vanz- this is a good point. I have read that the Eppler hire would actually entice Stearns to come as POBO as they are supposed really good friends - Eppler may remain under a potential Stearns hire. That said, I agree - this isn’t a rebuild.