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Myth of Saquon's "amazing rookie year"

Bear vs Shark : 11/24/2021 9:51 am
Forgive me for posting this word for word from another post, but I believe this garners more visibility. I've shared this before, but think its relevant again since everyone now realizes Barkley is a non factor, and pines for the "good ole days" (lol) of his 2018 rookie year.

The tl;dr is that while his numbers look gaudy, they did not help an offense consistently move the ball. He *did* have incredible home run capabilities, but on a team that needed to consistently move the chains, he was a terrible fit.

Post as follows:
================
I got in an argument with some friends in my FF league after I said Saquon was just Reggie Bush 2.0, and potentially a worse fit, after which they all called me crazy.

So I signed up for stat geek and plotted all of Reggie Bush's 2011 carries and all of Saquons 2018 carries on a spreadsheet - years when they both had 5 YPC.

I will admit that I did not look at receiving and that's a big part to leave out, but I was talking about how the offense is just not functional with Saquon as a runner.

Findings as follows:

Barkley:

1307 yards on 261 carries

576 yards on highest gaining 13 carries (44% of yardage on top 5% of highest gaining carries)

781 yards on highest gaining 26 carries (59.7% of yardage on top 10% highest gaining carries)

Median ypc: 2

Mode ypc: 1

The most likely outcome of Saquon running the ball was a 1 yard gain.

34 carries resulted in negative yardage for a total of -99.

26 carries resulted in no gain.

41 carries resulted in 1 yard.


Bush:

1086 yards on 216 carries

328 yards on top 11 highest gaining carries

475 yards on top 22 highest gaining carries

median ypc: 3

mode ypc: 3

22 negative yardage runs for a total of -66 yards.

16 rushes resulted in no gain.

20 rushes resulted in 1 yard.


Who would you rather have to help this offense move the ball given the Giants talent level?

Barkley was like this in college also. I fucking hated the pick at the time, have hated it since. I hated his run style even when he was putting up at numbers because it's really not sustainable for an offense to move the ball.

Hell, the 2014-2015 "slant to Odell and wait for him to bail us out" offense was more sustainable
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RE: RE: I'm not a Barkley guy...  
Giants73 : 11/24/2021 1:16 pm : link
In comment 15466291 FStubbs said:
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In comment 15466260 bw in dc said:


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and I am a huge PSU fan. I didn't want him here for all the endless reasons I have written. My fingers are crossed that we trade him and don't compound the dumb decision to draft him by re-signing him.

But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.

Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.



I think the whole point of the post is to show that even in this 2018 season, there was a lot of sizzle but no steak. He made highlight reel plays but didn't actually help the team win ball games.

He's a gadget player. Give him a few carries here and there, line him up in the slot, split him wide, scheme him into open space. That's what he is.


They have WRs they don’t get the ball already, where are you lining him up. Can’t be in the backfield other teams will blitz leaving him in there to shy away from a block. Can’t have him in there in first down to run, because you are 90% of the time going to be looking 2nd and more than 8.
a master class of intellectual dishonesty  
Eric on Li : 11/24/2021 1:17 pm : link
In comment 15466250 Go Terps said:
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In 2018 a play to Barkley gained fewer yards than the average play leaguewide.

If the ball goes your way almost 400 times you better have over 2000 yards. Hugely overrated player.


he rushed for 5 ypc - which was the best in the NFL among RBs with 200+ attempts and 9th best if you include those under 200.

so the only way your convoluted statement can be stretched to even a slight bit of truth-fullness is if you are including yards per play on passing plays among your "average play" comparison set - which would be comparing 2 things that simply aren't judged on the same scale. There's a reason top QB's average 300+ yards passing with 10+ Y/C and top RB's only average 100+ yards rushing with 4+ Y/R, there's a different scale to the value of different types of yards gained. Or the standard rules of FF scoring have been wrong for 3 decades.

so "per play" you are comparing apples to orangoutangs. but you know you that.

I assume your next reply will be some version of "that's why running backs are fungible" and my reply to that would be that Barkley still produced touchdowns and big plays (20+ and 40+) at a rate matched by only a handful of other top skill players, so hopefully that will save each of us some time.
The average play argument is funny  
UConn4523 : 11/24/2021 1:46 pm : link
he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?

His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
RE: The average play argument is funny  
Giants73 : 11/24/2021 1:55 pm : link
In comment 15466363 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?

His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.


How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
Histogram needed  
Matt123 : 11/24/2021 2:03 pm : link
Is there a way to download excel/csv that lists the yards for each run for the year (say for Barkley and Elliot)? Would love to see (or create) a histogram to count the number of runs in a bunch of yardage buckets.

RE: Bear vs Shark  
.McL. : 11/24/2021 2:21 pm : link
In comment 15466116 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
How old are you? (I just want to know if you were around in 1981 watching LT).

There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.

Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.

I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.

I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...

There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.

However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.

Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.

In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.
RE: RE: Bear vs Shark  
.McL. : 11/24/2021 2:23 pm : link
In comment 15466417 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 15466116 Eric from BBI said:


Quote:


How old are you? (I just want to know if you were around in 1981 watching LT).

There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.

Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.

I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.


I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...

There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.

However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.

Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.

In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.

To be clear, their is a correlation between winning football and successful rushing plays.
Passing is a different story.
RE: RE: the statistics...  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 2:33 pm : link
In comment 15466213 uconn18 said:
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In comment 15466175 Brown_Hornet said:


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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.

That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.



Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc

Do these stats backup that narrative
no they don’t.

As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.

He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.
RE: RE: RE: the statistics...  
.McL. : 11/24/2021 2:39 pm : link
In comment 15466429 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15466213 uconn18 said:


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In comment 15466175 Brown_Hornet said:


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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.

That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.



Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc

Do these stats backup that narrative

no they don’t.

As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.

He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.

He had a rookie year that had some eye popping spectacular plays...
However calling it great? That is in the eye of the beholder I guess. To me, it is not great when you 38th out of 39 qualifying players in rushing success rate (which is what I believe what it was, if not those numbers are close).
McL...  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 2:44 pm : link
... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
RE: RE: The average play argument is funny  
UConn4523 : 11/24/2021 2:46 pm : link
In comment 15466378 Giants73 said:
Quote:
In comment 15466363 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?

His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.



How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.


You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?

Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?

The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.
RE: RE: RE: The average play argument is funny  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 3:33 pm : link
In comment 15466449 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 15466378 Giants73 said:


Quote:


In comment 15466363 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?

His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.



How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.



You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?

Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?

The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.

This feels like one of those BBI debates that always polarizes to the extremes.

The reality is, IMO, Barkley didn't make the Giants worse. But he sure as hell didn't make us any better.
RE: McL...  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 3:36 pm : link
In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.

#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
Tale of two careers for SB  
JonC : 11/24/2021 3:45 pm : link
In 2018, he was electrifying and a threat score when he touched the football. Sadly, the injuries have robbed him since the first ankle in 2019, and he's not returned to form physically. He might never, look at OB. But, I'm not ready to give up on him yet, he's still not even 25.

Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.
What's amusing  
Jerry in_DC : 11/24/2021 3:47 pm : link
is that the analysis and discussion on threads like this are certainly 100x deeper than anything Gettleman did.

I think it's safe to assume Gettleman’s complete evaluation was something like "Whoa! You see that kid run?? We gotta get him."
RE: RE: McL...  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 3:50 pm : link
In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.


#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.

I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.

The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
RE: Tale of two careers for SB  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 3:52 pm : link
In comment 15466496 JonC said:
Quote:
In 2018, he was electrifying and a threat score when he touched the football. Sadly, the injuries have robbed him since the first ankle in 2019, and he's not returned to form physically. He might never, look at OB. But, I'm not ready to give up on him yet, he's still not even 25.

Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.

I think that's (as usual) a very fair perspective, Jon.

But I also think that it's worth remembering that his rarified-air rookie year didn't really change the fortunes of the franchise. He was a wrong-time/wrong-team pick, and now he might not even still be the player that he was dreamt to be.

That latter factor isn't his fault. He plays RB; RBs get hurt. And they rely so much on athleticism that even the slightest reduction in explosiveness can be exponentially detrimental to their production.

And this doesn't go toward you, because I know you get it, but instead to many of the other posters here who reflexively defend our players even when they fall short: when Barkley was drafted, one of the things that DG said was that SB was the sort of player that made an OL look good; that he was the sort of player that made the rest of his offense look good.

It was highlight-reel talk, when we needed boring success to rebuild the foundation.
RE: RE: RE: McL...  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 3:54 pm : link
In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.


#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.


I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.

The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.

I recognize that he had great individual productivity as a rookie. But we weren't a better team by any significant measure than the year before. He wasn't drafted as fantasy football RB; he was drafted to help us turn a moribund franchise around. That hasn't happened, and it didn't happen in his rookie year.
without all the stats, I was saying this on another thread yesterday  
Matt M. : 11/24/2021 4:09 pm : link
I was in favor of drafting Barkley before the draft. I admit this had as much to do with not wanting to take any of the vaunted QB class as it did about Barkley. So, I was pleased when we took him. But now, I would be fine if he never suited up for the Giants again.

I keep reading people refer to his rookie year with superlatives. Any way you slice, the numbers are impressive. If anything, his involvement in the passing game was the most impressive and what I would want to see replicated most now. But, his rushing numbers were deceptive. As you point out, the YPC as an average doesn't really tell the whole story. There were a number of games where those numbers were skewed by 1 big run late in a meaningless game situation. The reality is the majority of his runs were pedestrian.

That said, there was enough dynamic play to be optimistic. Between injuries and an even worse OL, if you can believe that, his play has actually regressed. At best, he has amounted to a mediocre RB over the last 3 seasons.
Dunk  
JonC : 11/24/2021 4:13 pm : link
No argument there. The reality is SB will probably struggle running until they get the OL up to a certain level. It has played poorly in front of him and the really good games they've been able to produce were when SB was on IR. Now he's clearly not running with the same explosive burst and can barely even keep his feet, which were among his gifts. He's still struggling to feel and find the holes to run through, which is really annoying to watch along with the pass pro failures.

Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
RE: Dunk  
Matt M. : 11/24/2021 4:15 pm : link
In comment 15466527 JonC said:
Quote:
No argument there. The reality is SB will probably struggle running until they get the OL up to a certain level. It has played poorly in front of him and the really good games they've been able to produce were when SB was on IR. Now he's clearly not running with the same explosive burst and can barely even keep his feet, which were among his gifts. He's still struggling to feel and find the holes to run through, which is really annoying to watch along with the pass pro failures.

Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
That's just it...he is pretty much in form. He just hasn't had an opportunity to bust the one big run. But, the hesitation and dancing were there his vaunted rookie year as well and each season afterword, healthy or hurt.
Well, it's a little different now  
JonC : 11/24/2021 4:18 pm : link
and not for the better, because he's losing his feet even when running through a truck lane of a hole. I'm not sure if it's nerves, or he's trying to hard, or he just doesn't have his legs back under him in terms of game shape.

But, the boom or bust running style ... he should be able to fix it to some extent, and that's where patience and being able to feel and find the hole SHOULD get better as he gains experience and the live action should slow down for him. I'm frustrated he's not showing it yet, but I also do see the poor run blocking in front of him not helping.

Need to see more to determine if he's going to get it all back physically, or if he's a different athlete now. I'm a little nervous for him, frankly, and for NYG.
No one has made us better on offense  
UConn4523 : 11/24/2021 4:19 pm : link
another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!
On the matter of LT...  
trueblueinpw : 11/24/2021 4:21 pm : link
I'm pretty sure I watched every snapped LT took in the NFL. I've watch a lot of pro football. I played football through HS. Of this I'm certain, I've never seen any player on the football field, at any level, ever, who I watched play and thought, "they play the game at the same level of LT".

And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.

Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.

I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.

I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
A lot of posters defended that Saquon pick by stating Gettleman  
Jimmy Googs : 11/24/2021 4:22 pm : link
picked the best player in the draft.

Injuries aside which are obviously hampering him, Barkley has shown enough weaknesses in his game and non-development in his running style as well that we know this not to be true.



....  
BrettNYG10 : 11/24/2021 4:25 pm : link
Too young for LT but I thought Odell's rookie year was far more impressive than Barkley's. That was the best rookie year I've seen.

I do think some are discounting Barkley's rookie year. He was very, very good. Terrible pick, though, and I think he's lacked a lot of the explosiveness. He would have been better served going to the Browns (or any other franchise, really).
RE: No one has made us better on offense  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 4:25 pm : link
In comment 15466535 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!

How is that an agenda?

You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?

It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
RE: On the matter of LT...  
Matt M. : 11/24/2021 4:27 pm : link
In comment 15466538 trueblueinpw said:
Quote:
I'm pretty sure I watched every snapped LT took in the NFL. I've watch a lot of pro football. I played football through HS. Of this I'm certain, I've never seen any player on the football field, at any level, ever, who I watched play and thought, "they play the game at the same level of LT".

And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.

Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.

I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.

I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
100%
Another factor the other night  
Matt M. : 11/24/2021 4:29 pm : link
I thought there were at least 3, maybe more, RPO plays where Jones made the wrong decision. When he gave it to Barkley, it seemed he should have kept it and vice versa. They were glaring mistakes.
Matt  
JonC : 11/24/2021 4:32 pm : link
absolutely, Jones struggled with a lot of his decision making vs the Bucs, in all facets.
RE: Matt  
BrettNYG10 : 11/24/2021 4:34 pm : link
In comment 15466552 JonC said:
Quote:
absolutely, Jones struggled with a lot of his decision making vs the Bucs his entire career, in all facets.


FTFY
You haven’t read my posts  
UConn4523 : 11/24/2021 4:34 pm : link
I already said it’s proven to be a bad pick. But this thread and calling his 2018 season a myth is the joke. But you know that, because I already wrote that. People just want to argue. Cool.
Barkley has been a HUGE disappointment in every aspect.  
Dave in Hoboken : 11/24/2021 4:36 pm : link
It's hilarious some of his fans are so sensitive about it still, though.

Face it. He's a bust and a loser.
RE: RE: No one has made us better on offense  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 4:38 pm : link
In comment 15466545 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15466535 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!


How is that an agenda?

You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?

It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
Not an agenda, just different conversations happening at the same time.

I agree with most of what you have said. What I am saying is that 2018 was a great performance. 2nd pick of the 1st RD or the 5th RD, it was a great performance.

Conversations re: value for the 2nd pick, his performance since, the future cost...all topical, relevant and interesting, just not to the OP.

RE: You haven’t read my posts  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 4:39 pm : link
In comment 15466557 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I already said it’s proven to be a bad pick. But this thread and calling his 2018 season a myth is the joke. But you know that, because I already wrote that. People just want to argue. Cool.

I happen to think the truth is somewhere in between.

I think that Barkley's rookie year was individually impressive but also think that the OP makes some very strong points about the feast or famine nature of SB's production even at his best.

Now we rarely even get the feast, but still get plenty of famine. Seeing SB stop cold behind the LOS prior to contact on a few occasions Monday night was brutal. I hope that he's still just shaking the rust off, but we won't know for a bit, I suspect.
Barkley’s 2018  
Giants73 : 11/24/2021 4:47 pm : link
NY Giants record 5-11. Who gives a sh!t what his stats were. Anyone watching those games watched him dance and try to bounce everything outside. Would be successful once maybe twice a game. Usually those big runs were late in the game when the score was as out of reach. Left the offense in a huge hole the rest of the time and it would end up being 3rd and long. Then we could witness his terrible attempts at pass blocking. Horrible pick at the time and now. Two things to stay away from in the draft USC QB and Penn St RB.
RE: Barkley’s 2018  
Gatorade Dunk : 11/24/2021 4:52 pm : link
In comment 15466574 Giants73 said:
Quote:
NY Giants record 5-11. Who gives a sh!t what his stats were. Anyone watching those games watched him dance and try to bounce everything outside. Would be successful once maybe twice a game. Usually those big runs were late in the game when the score was as out of reach. Left the offense in a huge hole the rest of the time and it would end up being 3rd and long. Then we could witness his terrible attempts at pass blocking. Horrible pick at the time and now. Two things to stay away from in the draft USC QB and Penn St RB.

You are a bottomless pit of shit takes.

I'm not even arguing against most of what you're saying. But the idea that the college that a kid attends, regardless of the coaching staff, the scheme, the teammates at the time, etc., somehow has some fucking curse on what kind of NFL player he'll become is insane.

How have UNC linebackers done in the NFL? What about Morehead State QBs? UMass WRs? Texas Southern DEs?

If you want to be a fucking mouthbreather, then just call into WFAN and leave the grown-up talk to the adults.
RE: Histogram needed  
Bear vs Shark : 11/24/2021 5:47 pm : link
In comment 15466392 Matt123 said:
Quote:
Is there a way to download excel/csv that lists the yards for each run for the year (say for Barkley and Elliot)? Would love to see (or create) a histogram to count the number of runs in a bunch of yardage buckets.
email my backup email at meratelos@gmail.com and i'll send the spreadsheets. I think the saquon one has a little histogram on it. I can share via google drive also.

Just please remember I was doing this at like 10 AM during a workday just to win an argument, so I more or less downloaded from Statgeek, put it into a spreadsheet, sorted, filtered, and used a couple formulas.
RE: Barkley’s 2018  
FStubbs : 11/24/2021 6:17 pm : link
In comment 15466574 Giants73 said:
Quote:
NY Giants record 5-11. Who gives a sh!t what his stats were. Anyone watching those games watched him dance and try to bounce everything outside. Would be successful once maybe twice a game. Usually those big runs were late in the game when the score was as out of reach. Left the offense in a huge hole the rest of the time and it would end up being 3rd and long. Then we could witness his terrible attempts at pass blocking. Horrible pick at the time and now. Two things to stay away from in the draft USC QB and Penn St RB.


I'm a huge critic of Barkley at this point, but he was actually decent at pass blocking in 2018. Quite probably because Eli was making adjustments for him and telling him where to expect the defenders.
RE: You haven’t read my posts  
Bear vs Shark : 11/24/2021 6:27 pm : link
In comment 15466557 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I already said it’s proven to be a bad pick. But this thread and calling his 2018 season a myth is the joke. But you know that, because I already wrote that. People just want to argue. Cool.
It's not even the best season by a Giants RB. Tiki's 05 and 06 were both better.

So people need to spare me the fucking theatrics of his historical rookie year. It wasn't even the best in franchise history.

At least OBJ's first couple years were the best years by a WR on the Giants
I wanted Barkley to come out and play like Marshall Faulk. Still do.  
Ivan15 : 11/24/2021 6:59 pm : link
For those of you who wish the same, I believe the plays that work with Barkley’s skill set are in the playbook. Every team has the same plays. The blocking schemes may be different. Garrett just wasn’t calling them.

We should know pretty quickly how much Garrett was holding back the Giants and Jones. If Kitchens doesn’t make a difference, then Garrett wasn’t the problem.
Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 11/24/2021 7:31 pm : link
Were two guys who were similarly reliant on big plays. 1, 0, 3, 2, -2, 5, 2, 1, 57. 6 on the board.

I know it’s a not a style conducive to consistency. I believe it was FStubbs who showed me on another thread how this style isn’t favorable in terms of EPA and other PbP data driven measurements.

But there is absolutely value in having a player capable of creating big plays from areas of the field that defenses don’t expect to give up a TD from. Barkley being a TD threat from his own 20 is simply something defensive coordinators had to consider.

PFF isn’t gospel, I always take it with a grain of salt. But in their rankings of NFL players in 2018, they ranked Barkley as the #1 RB and #7 skill position player.

I loved those Tiki seasons and I’m still praying that Barkley develops Tiki’s patience and vision. Those prime Tiki seasons were something else. But let’s not forget the difference between Tiki’s OL and Barkley’s in 2018. Even though I’d agree that Tiki’s best season was better than Barkley’s rookie season, it doesn’t mean that Barkley having a good season was a “myth”.

Big play reliant but don’t underestimate the value of a big play.
He isn't Faulk like in my assessment…  
trueblueinpw : 11/24/2021 7:37 pm : link
I get what you’re saying and agree in theory. But Barks can’t be used like Faulk because he isn’t as good as Faulk.

Faulk might be the most complete back I’ve ever seen. One thing jump out as lacking in Barkley’s game that Faulk had at all time great level is intelligence. Faulk was really smart and I’m not saying Barks is dumb but I think Faulk knew every play and every players assignment. He was, by all accounts incredibly smart and hyper prepared. Haven’t heard that about Saquon.

Faulk was also a very willing and very capable pass protector. Barkley’s a minus pass blocker and that impacts how the Giants can use him and really limits any Faulk like deployment. I think at least.

We all know h’s in the HOF, but even among the other HOF, Faulk stands as one of the very best.
RE: RE: RE: McL...  
.McL. : 11/24/2021 7:43 pm : link
In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.


#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.


I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.

The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.

I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.

I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
Not sure if this has  
ryanmkeane : 11/24/2021 10:38 pm : link
anything to do with it, but physically, Barkley appears to be a lot thinner than he did in year 1 and 2. Does anyone else feel the same? It almost feels on purpose, like he’s trying to look like a receiver instead of a RB. Perhaps it’s the way he’s wearing his pads, I don’t know. He just looks way less imposing now.
RE: RE: RE: RE: McL...  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 11:06 pm : link
In comment 15466707 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.


#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.


I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.

The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.


I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.

I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
Im sorry that you cannot see the forest for the trees.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.

Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.
RE: No one has made us better on offense  
Ned In Atlanta : 11/24/2021 11:09 pm : link
In comment 15466535 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!


Nelson is an all pro guard who went 4 picks after Barkley and he 100% would have made the offense better. What’s the point of reminiscing about saquons rookie year? The team went 5-11. And gallman and booker have looked better than a healthy Barkley the last two years. It was a terrible pick. Extending him would be malpractice
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: McL...  
.McL. : 11/24/2021 11:28 pm : link
In comment 15466817 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15466707 .McL. said:


Quote:


In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:


Quote:


... That's kind of my point.

He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.

He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.


#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.

Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.


I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.

The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.


I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.

I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.

Im sorry that you cannot see the forest for the trees.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.

Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.

That is the problem, those plays were too few and far between to make up for the pain of the failed plays. I saw wayyyyy too many failed plays. I don't enjoy failed plays. I don't enjoy losing football.

Like I said, people get enamored with the special plays, but it isn't winning football. Winning football lacks those spectacular plays. But it all lacks most of the failures.
No…  
Brown_Hornet : 11/24/2021 11:31 pm : link
…they are the light in an otherwise dark performance by the team.

You’ve made up your mind.

Be well.
RE: No…  
.McL. : 11/25/2021 4:54 pm : link
In comment 15466830 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
…they are the light in an otherwise dark performance by the team.

You’ve made up your mind.

Be well.

Yes, my mind is made up... As is yours...

As for me, I don't care about a few brilliant plays. I care about winning. Boom or bust with a very small percentage of boom and a high percentage of bust is not winning football. 5 - 11 records goes a long way to helping one make up their mind!
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