Forgive me for posting this word for word from another post, but I believe this garners more visibility. I've shared this before, but think its relevant again since everyone now realizes Barkley is a non factor, and pines for the "good ole days" (lol) of his 2018 rookie year.
The tl;dr is that while his numbers look gaudy, they did not help an offense consistently move the ball. He *did* have incredible home run capabilities, but on a team that needed to consistently move the chains, he was a terrible fit.
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I got in an argument with some friends in my FF league after I said Saquon was just Reggie Bush 2.0, and potentially a worse fit, after which they all called me crazy.
So I signed up for stat geek and plotted all of Reggie Bush's 2011 carries and all of Saquons 2018 carries on a spreadsheet - years when they both had 5 YPC.
I will admit that I did not look at receiving and that's a big part to leave out, but I was talking about how the offense is just not functional with Saquon as a runner.
Findings as follows:
Barkley:
1307 yards on 261 carries
576 yards on highest gaining 13 carries (44% of yardage on top 5% of highest gaining carries)
781 yards on highest gaining 26 carries (59.7% of yardage on top 10% highest gaining carries)
Median ypc: 2
Mode ypc: 1
The most likely outcome of Saquon running the ball was a 1 yard gain.
34 carries resulted in negative yardage for a total of -99.
26 carries resulted in no gain.
41 carries resulted in 1 yard.
Bush:
1086 yards on 216 carries
328 yards on top 11 highest gaining carries
475 yards on top 22 highest gaining carries
median ypc: 3
mode ypc: 3
22 negative yardage runs for a total of -66 yards.
16 rushes resulted in no gain.
20 rushes resulted in 1 yard.
Who would you rather have to help this offense move the ball given the Giants talent level?
Barkley was like this in college also. I fucking hated the pick at the time, have hated it since. I hated his run style even when he was putting up at numbers because it's really not sustainable for an offense to move the ball.
Hell, the 2014-2015 "slant to Odell and wait for him to bail us out" offense was more sustainable
It's likely an underrated factor in Saquons success his rookie year.
Having said that, the tendencies that make him a non factor this year were still there his rookie year. He just appears to have lost some athleticism (or has a mental tentative-ness) that is preventing the big plays, which, when they occurred, at least balanced out the negative ones.
Agreed
Not to say Saquons natural gifts played no part
When the likeliest outcome is a 1 yard gain, the offense can't function.
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Forever believe his numbers from his rookie season was because Eli was making the line calls and audibles putting SB in the right space at the right time.
This is a very good point and something I've thought in passing before, but admittedly never gave enough credence to.
It's likely an underrated factor in Saquons success his rookie year.
Having said that, the tendencies that make him a non factor this year were still there his rookie year. He just appears to have lost some athleticism (or has a mental tentative-ness) that is preventing the big plays, which, when they occurred, at least balanced out the negative ones.
I remember Eli constantly moving Barkley around.
It was actually discussed on BBI as soon as the following year when rookie Daniel Jones was NOT doing this.
I don't know if he's physically the same player anymore. He's had many critical injuries including an ACL.
I don't think teams are as intimdated by Saquon as you think. The good teams knew all they had to do was prevent the big run and they could feast on his 1 yard carries.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
I have believed this since Denver with that incredible line from early to mid 90's seemed to be able to insert any somewhat serviceable RB, and they inevitably lead the league in rushing.
This is the reason that DG is a bad GM. He was too afraid of "NOT" drafting Barkley and seeing him go somewhere else and produce at a high level, which for the short term, may have been true, but in the long term, (not drafting Barkley) would've earned better dividends.
I maintain that RB's and plug and play, regardless of their quads.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
Saquon Barkley
79 rush attempts 254 yards 2 TD's
Baker Mayfield
79 rush attempts 254 yards 2 TD's
Even in Saquon's rookie year, when he was at his best, and with Shurmur running the offense rather than Garrett, the Giants were 17th in the league in yards and 16th in scoring.
Opposing DCs probably were able to get some sleep that year.
There is certainly a debate to be had over how good Barkley's rookie season actually was and, to me, his lack of effectiveness ever since is probably the result of some combination of his injuries and the fact that he was never actually that good in the first place. However, either way, he was the wrong pick at the wrong time and the fact that the most valuable asset that the Giants have possessed in the Gettleman era (the second pick in the draft) was completely wasted, doomed this awful no good terrible rebuild from the very start.
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was he an every down/all situations pounder like zeke or henry? no. but he was the best big play runner in football that year (and a very good receiver in addition to that). He had 7 runs of 40+ yards and only 1 other runner had more than 3 (Chubb had 4). Also his rush 1st down% was 2nd highest of all the runners that went over 1k yards, so it's not like he was entirely boom/bust.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
Fair point but he was being used like a bellcow and that put the offense in negative down and distance/negative drive scripts very often.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
the offense was in negative down/distance first and foremost because the OL sucked, as it has for more than a decade.
That was the year Flowers had 2 or 3 penalties vs. JAX that almost resulted in a safety on the very first drive of the year and only made it a few weeks before Wheeler took over. Omahmem was so bad nobody had time to learn how to spell his name correctly before he got cut midseason. Pio and Pulley sucked. Amazingly Solder/Hernandez and midseason waiver claim Jamon Brown were actually the positives for the group that was starting by the end of the year, and perhaps was the most close to functional offense this org has had in the last half decade (ended the year ranked 16th).
Barkley was the brightest of a small handful of bright spots on that roster and torturing some stats in an effort to cast him as a problem is inaccurate (imo). He scored and a hit big plays better than any other RB in football. That team scored 30+ points 5x in 1 season when the current offense hasn't scored 30 points in 1.5 years. In Barkley's first 2 years they scored 30+ with him on the field 8x.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
I don't know how anyone that watched football for long can tell me Barkley is not a good RB. He has some warts but he's never played a full season or even most of a season since 18.
If he was healthy, he'd be just fine. fans would still find shit in his game to gripe about, and he probably wouldn't be perfect, but he wouldn't be labeled as soft or indecisive or injury prone like he is now.
He's a known talent. He would be producing. He might not be OJ Anderson 1989 or Morris 86 in regards to hammering the hole, but he'd be a 1600 - 2000 all purpose producer with 50-90 catches. And that would be just fine.
HE'S been HURT more than half the time here. Every RB needs reps or needs to develop a groove. Barkley hasn't been afforded this.
If you think Barkley is a subpar RB when he's at his best, you really don't know wtf you're watching.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
This is why Emmitt Smith was so much better than Barry Sanders, and that played a big part in why the Cowboys won and the Lions didn't.
Conversely, they’re no doubt looking to send a blitzer and pressure his awful pass pro skills when he’s in there on passing downs
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His rookie year. But once it became clear that the most likely outcome of a Saquan run is 1 yard, I think the fear starts going away.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
I made a thread on this a while back and the numbers were pretty inconclusive on whether or not he helps the team.
Your correct that they averaged a few more point a gain with him then without him.
However they have a significantly worse record, and oddly enough I think they averaged more rushing yards per game without him.
I would say it’s not definitive that he helps or hurts the team, and that’s a reason to not even consider giving a second contract to him.
I can’t remember the last time a running back was better in his second contact than his first.
This is why Emmitt Smith was so much better than Barry Sanders, and that played a big part in why the Cowboys won and the Lions didn't.
Really? Barry Sanders ran behind a below average Oline. Emmitt ran behind one of the greatest lines of all time. Oh, and he also has 2 other hall of fame players playing with him (Aikman and Irvin)
Lions didn't win because of a trash defense and an even trashier QB.
The Giants are suffering from about 12 different big and small problems. Barkley missing about 75% of the games since 18 is one of them. Maybe their record isn't any better if he plays all these games but I will tell you right now with 100% certainty, the offense would have been better, in terms of PPG and yardage.
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
That said, it is ok to admit SB had a good (or better) rookie season, but has been meh, or injured, since. And that injuries may have ended his shot at greatness. And that he has huge holes his game. At current, jury is still out on the player he is now. We don't need to cast shadows on his rookie year.
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In comment 15465963 Eric on Li said:
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was he an every down/all situations pounder like zeke or henry? no. but he was the best big play runner in football that year (and a very good receiver in addition to that). He had 7 runs of 40+ yards and only 1 other runner had more than 3 (Chubb had 4). Also his rush 1st down% was 2nd highest of all the runners that went over 1k yards, so it's not like he was entirely boom/bust.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
Fair point but he was being used like a bellcow and that put the offense in negative down and distance/negative drive scripts very often.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
the offense was in negative down/distance first and foremost because the OL sucked, as it has for more than a decade.
That was the year Flowers had 2 or 3 penalties vs. JAX that almost resulted in a safety on the very first drive of the year and only made it a few weeks before Wheeler took over. Omahmem was so bad nobody had time to learn how to spell his name correctly before he got cut midseason. Pio and Pulley sucked. Amazingly Solder/Hernandez and midseason waiver claim Jamon Brown were actually the positives for the group that was starting by the end of the year, and perhaps was the most close to functional offense this org has had in the last half decade (ended the year ranked 16th).
Barkley was the brightest of a small handful of bright spots on that roster and torturing some stats in an effort to cast him as a problem is inaccurate (imo). He scored and a hit big plays better than any other RB in football. That team scored 30+ points 5x in 1 season when the current offense hasn't scored 30 points in 1.5 years. In Barkley's first 2 years they scored 30+ with him on the field 8x.
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
Additionally, I think uconn has a good point Maybe the offense scores a few more points a game, but his lack of an ability to get into reasonable down and distances leads to 3 and outs, which puts the defense on the field more, and most likely hurts their effectiveness.
I don't think it's surprising the Giants have a worse record with Barkley than without him. When the team is this bad, you need to be able to control the clock and get consistent yardage instead of going for a home run and ending up in 2nd and 9s, 3rd and 7s, etc. Just lets the opposing D tee off
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
I'm too young to have seen LT, so I can't comment on the eyeball test, but it feels disparaging to compare LT's rookie year to Saquons.
OBJ IMO had a better rookie year than Saquon. I legit thought that was more impressive.
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
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His rookie year. But once it became clear that the most likely outcome of a Saquan run is 1 yard, I think the fear starts going away.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
You're right. The Giants have scored 21.9 ppg when SB plays since he was drafted; they've scored 17.9 ppg when he does not. I do think it's important to note that both of those numbers suck.
And the injuries do matter. What good is it to build your team around a guy who is going to miss almost 40% of his games no matter how good he is?
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
LT as a rookie? Yea ok.
Yup.
But that's why taking a RB #2 overall is a mistake. RBs get injured more than any other position!
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who actually saw and actually remembers Saquon's rookie season knows he was the best football in the field. It was like when LT was a rookie.
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
LT as a rookie? Yea ok.
Barkley gained 2,000 yards as a rookie on a team with a shitty offensive line. Every time he touched the ball, he was a threat to score.
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My guess is it is too painful for some fans such as yourself to actually admit that Saquon was special and has become a shadow of himself in just a couple of years. That's what has happened.
Yup.
Similar to how it is too painful for some fans to actually admit he is that shadow today...
We don't know WTF Barkley is because he's never on the field. When he is on the field and not fresh off the IR list he's a dynamic playmaker capable of 16-2000 all purpose yardage. This is just a fact.
No knows WTF he is. Even on Monday night, Barkley averaged like 5 yards per touch but according to this thread he was 1 yard and down....NOPE...wrong.
Saquon Barkley's FULL Rookie Highlights - ( New Window )
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
Yeah, barkley is a 1 yard and done runner. Just stop already.
We don't know WTF Barkley is because he's never on the field. When he is on the field and not fresh off the IR list he's a dynamic playmaker capable of 16-2000 all purpose yardage. This is just a fact.
No knows WTF he is. Even on Monday night, Barkley averaged like 5 yards per touch but according to this thread he was 1 yard and down....NOPE...wrong.
So then what’s your stance?? A few of us on this thread have said we don’t think he helps the team win and we shouldn’t extend him.
Sounds like your just saying IDK so you won’t be wrong either way.
Are you saying the giants should extend him?
I would take Tiki 100 out of 100 times over Barkley
Yeah, barkley is a 1 yard and done runner. Just stop already.
This is not a discussion on whether to take a RB at #2 or not, its simply stating facts and being fair. This year is a waste as it is with most players returning from his injury in year 1. My opinion is that next year, being a longer time away from his injury, and given a decent OL, Barkley will be a stud. Since he is extended now, I guess we will see.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
His lack of effort in blocking on pass plays is atrocious.
He does not need to see a second contract by the Giants based on his present play. He has lost his balance tripping over himself on multiple plays and just dances behind the LOS on far too many plays. I know the OL sucks but you got to get as much as possible on each play instead of dancing. Look at Booker and Penney's run effort versus Barkley. Very noticeable...
I still believe SB was taken to help Eli as a threat and then to be a "Tiki" for a new QB. Unfortunately the OL was never put in place to maximize his talent. Then the injuries.
Really good point about Eli adjusting to the right play. One of his great talents that he showed very early in his career. Gilbride praised him often for this ability.
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But telling OP to “watch the highlights and see how special he was” isn’t really the point he seems to be making.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
Yes and no.
One of the huge complaints we all had with the previous coaching staff was that Saquon would be killing a team. Remember the game against the Eagles where the Giants were dominating them because they couldn't handle Saquon? And then Saquon's number wasn't called except for a few touches in the second half?
That wasn't because Saquon was not being productive. It was because the offensive coaches shit the bed.
I swear some of you guys don't remember your own posts from a few years ago.
We're literally being told that a 2,000 yard season was a "myth".
Without injury he was the most exciting thing I ever saw in a Giant uniform not named LT. I don't call players who succumb to injuries as busts, it is just part of the game. If we picked him up in the second round or third we would all still be rooting for him. Lay the blame where it belongs with that crook GETTLEMAN!
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
Are you telling us that Hakeem Nicks and Bradshaw didn't have their share of exciting plays?
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
Keeping defensive coordinators up nights, ha ha, I can just picture it in my mind.
We are playing against Saquon, what can we possibly do?!? Oh, right, keep 8 men in the box. Ok I'm gonna get some sleep now.
News flash, NO defensive coordinator us losing sleep because of the Giants' offense.
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Aren’t we all giants fans, hoping for them to win another Super Bowl?
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
Are you telling us that Hakeem Nicks and Bradshaw didn't have their share of exciting plays?
That’s what you gathered from that post? I’m saying they have less impressive highlight reels than Beckham and Barkley.
However with that said, I think they played better winning football (less negative plays)
In 2019 he got the high ankle sprain in the first half of game 3 (after rushing for 100+ yards in games 1 and 2). Once he got healthy he ended the year strong with huge games in weeks 15-17.
In 2020 he tore his ACL and had other knee damage in the first half of game 2.
This year he was coming back from the ACL and sprained his ankle in the first half of game 5.
Isn't the premise of this thread the myth of 2018?
That has nothing to do with the disaster that has been 2019 and beyond.
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My guess is it is too painful for some fans such as yourself to actually admit that Saquon was special and has become a shadow of himself in just a couple of years. That's what has happened.
He had the best big play ability from a RB I've ever seen. I will admit that. But he wasn't a bellcow and that's what the franchise and fans thought they were getting.
I would take Tiki 100 out of 100 times over Barkley
I’m with you. Tiki had much better vision and was miles ahead in pass protection. Way too many negative plays from SB and he doesn’t punish a D. He’s not physical and no one is hesitant to tackle him. Thunder lightning combo was the best followed by prime Tiki who is criminally underrated in NYG world
Opposing defenses do not fear Saquon.
Look at this article and scroll down to the chart downing RBs and stacked defense index. Saquon is way down on the bottom
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/opposing-defenses-show-us-just-how-scary-derrick-henry-is/
But no sane person would have taken Tiki over Saquon based on each of their rookie seasons. Tiki had a fine rookie season, but it wasn't Saquon good.
And how we forget... BBI was done with Tiki until Coughlin "fixed" his fumbling problem. The second-half of Tiki's career is what made his legacy, not the first half.
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In comment 15466136 uconn18 said:
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But telling OP to “watch the highlights and see how special he was” isn’t really the point he seems to be making.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
Yes and no.
One of the huge complaints we all had with the previous coaching staff was that Saquon would be killing a team. Remember the game against the Eagles where the Giants were dominating them because they couldn't handle Saquon? And then Saquon's number wasn't called except for a few touches in the second half?
That wasn't because Saquon was not being productive. It was because the offensive coaches shit the bed.
I swear some of you guys don't remember your own posts from a few years ago.
We're literally being told that a 2,000 yard season was a "myth".
Two RBs have 20 carries for 100 yards.
Who you want? The one who actually ran for 5 YPC, or the one who broke off a 60 yard run on 1 carry and had 40 yards on the remaining 19 carries? Which one gives the team a better chance to win?
But no sane person would have taken Tiki over Saquon based on each of their rookie seasons. Tiki had a fine rookie season, but it wasn't Saquon good.
And how we forget... BBI was done with Tiki until Coughlin "fixed" his fumbling problem. The second-half of Tiki's career is what made his legacy, not the first half.
Well, I was talking about Tiki's prime (2005) vs what Saquon's prime has been to this point (2018)
I specifically recall you calling me an asshole for calling Saquon a backfield dancer. And then citing a whole bunch of useless statistics since you are the self appointed BBI football gatekeeping genius and everyone else that doesn't agree with you is just a low IQ football moron. Newsflash- you are a dumb fuck just like the rest of us.
If the ball goes your way almost 400 times you better have over 2000 yards. Hugely overrated player.
the reason is he has to go
As long as Gettleman is around he will be demanding his Gold Jacket Guy get the reps
He is a boat anchor out there....has wayyyyyyyyy to many Daynes for No Gain- drive killers, 3rd and long festivals
Add to that your Sister Shirley can out block this guy
He is a QBs worse nightmare as a bodyguard
He has been known to turn his back to oncoming rushers
GET RID OF HIM while there is still a 6th round draft choice to be had in return.....werent Brady and Johnny Unitas 6th rounders?
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
I think the whole point of the post is to show that even in this 2018 season, there was a lot of sizzle but no steak. He made highlight reel plays but didn't actually help the team win ball games.
He's a gadget player. Give him a few carries here and there, line him up in the slot, split him wide, scheme him into open space. That's what he is.
You can't win that way. running the ball is supposed to yield positive yardage.
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and I am a huge PSU fan. I didn't want him here for all the endless reasons I have written. My fingers are crossed that we trade him and don't compound the dumb decision to draft him by re-signing him.
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
I think the whole point of the post is to show that even in this 2018 season, there was a lot of sizzle but no steak. He made highlight reel plays but didn't actually help the team win ball games.
He's a gadget player. Give him a few carries here and there, line him up in the slot, split him wide, scheme him into open space. That's what he is.
They have WRs they don’t get the ball already, where are you lining him up. Can’t be in the backfield other teams will blitz leaving him in there to shy away from a block. Can’t have him in there in first down to run, because you are 90% of the time going to be looking 2nd and more than 8.
If the ball goes your way almost 400 times you better have over 2000 yards. Hugely overrated player.
he rushed for 5 ypc - which was the best in the NFL among RBs with 200+ attempts and 9th best if you include those under 200.
so the only way your convoluted statement can be stretched to even a slight bit of truth-fullness is if you are including yards per play on passing plays among your "average play" comparison set - which would be comparing 2 things that simply aren't judged on the same scale. There's a reason top QB's average 300+ yards passing with 10+ Y/C and top RB's only average 100+ yards rushing with 4+ Y/R, there's a different scale to the value of different types of yards gained. Or the standard rules of FF scoring have been wrong for 3 decades.
so "per play" you are comparing apples to orangoutangs. but you know you that.
I assume your next reply will be some version of "that's why running backs are fungible" and my reply to that would be that Barkley still produced touchdowns and big plays (20+ and 40+) at a rate matched by only a handful of other top skill players, so hopefully that will save each of us some time.
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...
There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.
However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.
Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.
In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.
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How old are you? (I just want to know if you were around in 1981 watching LT).
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...
There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.
However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.
Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.
In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.
To be clear, their is a correlation between winning football and successful rushing plays.
Passing is a different story.
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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.
He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.
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In comment 15466175 Brown_Hornet said:
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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
no they don’t.
As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.
He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.
He had a rookie year that had some eye popping spectacular plays...
However calling it great? That is in the eye of the beholder I guess. To me, it is not great when you 38th out of 39 qualifying players in rushing success rate (which is what I believe what it was, if not those numbers are close).
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
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he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?
Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?
The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.
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In comment 15466363 UConn4523 said:
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he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?
Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?
The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.
This feels like one of those BBI debates that always polarizes to the extremes.
The reality is, IMO, Barkley didn't make the Giants worse. But he sure as hell didn't make us any better.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.
I think it's safe to assume Gettleman’s complete evaluation was something like "Whoa! You see that kid run?? We gotta get him."
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.
I think that's (as usual) a very fair perspective, Jon.
But I also think that it's worth remembering that his rarified-air rookie year didn't really change the fortunes of the franchise. He was a wrong-time/wrong-team pick, and now he might not even still be the player that he was dreamt to be.
That latter factor isn't his fault. He plays RB; RBs get hurt. And they rely so much on athleticism that even the slightest reduction in explosiveness can be exponentially detrimental to their production.
And this doesn't go toward you, because I know you get it, but instead to many of the other posters here who reflexively defend our players even when they fall short: when Barkley was drafted, one of the things that DG said was that SB was the sort of player that made an OL look good; that he was the sort of player that made the rest of his offense look good.
It was highlight-reel talk, when we needed boring success to rebuild the foundation.
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I recognize that he had great individual productivity as a rookie. But we weren't a better team by any significant measure than the year before. He wasn't drafted as fantasy football RB; he was drafted to help us turn a moribund franchise around. That hasn't happened, and it didn't happen in his rookie year.
I keep reading people refer to his rookie year with superlatives. Any way you slice, the numbers are impressive. If anything, his involvement in the passing game was the most impressive and what I would want to see replicated most now. But, his rushing numbers were deceptive. As you point out, the YPC as an average doesn't really tell the whole story. There were a number of games where those numbers were skewed by 1 big run late in a meaningless game situation. The reality is the majority of his runs were pedestrian.
That said, there was enough dynamic play to be optimistic. Between injuries and an even worse OL, if you can believe that, his play has actually regressed. At best, he has amounted to a mediocre RB over the last 3 seasons.
Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
But, the boom or bust running style ... he should be able to fix it to some extent, and that's where patience and being able to feel and find the hole SHOULD get better as he gains experience and the live action should slow down for him. I'm frustrated he's not showing it yet, but I also do see the poor run blocking in front of him not helping.
Need to see more to determine if he's going to get it all back physically, or if he's a different athlete now. I'm a little nervous for him, frankly, and for NYG.
And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.
Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.
I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.
I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
Injuries aside which are obviously hampering him, Barkley has shown enough weaknesses in his game and non-development in his running style as well that we know this not to be true.
I do think some are discounting Barkley's rookie year. He was very, very good. Terrible pick, though, and I think he's lacked a lot of the explosiveness. He would have been better served going to the Browns (or any other franchise, really).
How is that an agenda?
You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?
It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.
Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.
I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.
I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
FTFY
Face it. He's a bust and a loser.
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another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!
How is that an agenda?
You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?
It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
I agree with most of what you have said. What I am saying is that 2018 was a great performance. 2nd pick of the 1st RD or the 5th RD, it was a great performance.
Conversations re: value for the 2nd pick, his performance since, the future cost...all topical, relevant and interesting, just not to the OP.
I happen to think the truth is somewhere in between.
I think that Barkley's rookie year was individually impressive but also think that the OP makes some very strong points about the feast or famine nature of SB's production even at his best.
Now we rarely even get the feast, but still get plenty of famine. Seeing SB stop cold behind the LOS prior to contact on a few occasions Monday night was brutal. I hope that he's still just shaking the rust off, but we won't know for a bit, I suspect.
You are a bottomless pit of shit takes.
I'm not even arguing against most of what you're saying. But the idea that the college that a kid attends, regardless of the coaching staff, the scheme, the teammates at the time, etc., somehow has some fucking curse on what kind of NFL player he'll become is insane.
How have UNC linebackers done in the NFL? What about Morehead State QBs? UMass WRs? Texas Southern DEs?
If you want to be a fucking mouthbreather, then just call into WFAN and leave the grown-up talk to the adults.
Just please remember I was doing this at like 10 AM during a workday just to win an argument, so I more or less downloaded from Statgeek, put it into a spreadsheet, sorted, filtered, and used a couple formulas.
I'm a huge critic of Barkley at this point, but he was actually decent at pass blocking in 2018. Quite probably because Eli was making adjustments for him and telling him where to expect the defenders.
So people need to spare me the fucking theatrics of his historical rookie year. It wasn't even the best in franchise history.
At least OBJ's first couple years were the best years by a WR on the Giants
We should know pretty quickly how much Garrett was holding back the Giants and Jones. If Kitchens doesn’t make a difference, then Garrett wasn’t the problem.
I know it’s a not a style conducive to consistency. I believe it was FStubbs who showed me on another thread how this style isn’t favorable in terms of EPA and other PbP data driven measurements.
But there is absolutely value in having a player capable of creating big plays from areas of the field that defenses don’t expect to give up a TD from. Barkley being a TD threat from his own 20 is simply something defensive coordinators had to consider.
PFF isn’t gospel, I always take it with a grain of salt. But in their rankings of NFL players in 2018, they ranked Barkley as the #1 RB and #7 skill position player.
I loved those Tiki seasons and I’m still praying that Barkley develops Tiki’s patience and vision. Those prime Tiki seasons were something else. But let’s not forget the difference between Tiki’s OL and Barkley’s in 2018. Even though I’d agree that Tiki’s best season was better than Barkley’s rookie season, it doesn’t mean that Barkley having a good season was a “myth”.
Big play reliant but don’t underestimate the value of a big play.
Faulk might be the most complete back I’ve ever seen. One thing jump out as lacking in Barkley’s game that Faulk had at all time great level is intelligence. Faulk was really smart and I’m not saying Barks is dumb but I think Faulk knew every play and every players assignment. He was, by all accounts incredibly smart and hyper prepared. Haven’t heard that about Saquon.
Faulk was also a very willing and very capable pass protector. Barkley’s a minus pass blocker and that impacts how the Giants can use him and really limits any Faulk like deployment. I think at least.
We all know h’s in the HOF, but even among the other HOF, Faulk stands as one of the very best.
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
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In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.
Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.
Nelson is an all pro guard who went 4 picks after Barkley and he 100% would have made the offense better. What’s the point of reminiscing about saquons rookie year? The team went 5-11. And gallman and booker have looked better than a healthy Barkley the last two years. It was a terrible pick. Extending him would be malpractice
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In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:
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In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
Im sorry that you cannot see the forest for the trees.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.
Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.
That is the problem, those plays were too few and far between to make up for the pain of the failed plays. I saw wayyyyy too many failed plays. I don't enjoy failed plays. I don't enjoy losing football.
Like I said, people get enamored with the special plays, but it isn't winning football. Winning football lacks those spectacular plays. But it all lacks most of the failures.
You’ve made up your mind.
Be well.
You’ve made up your mind.
Be well.
Yes, my mind is made up... As is yours...
As for me, I don't care about a few brilliant plays. I care about winning. Boom or bust with a very small percentage of boom and a high percentage of bust is not winning football. 5 - 11 records goes a long way to helping one make up their mind!