Forgive me for posting this word for word from another post, but I believe this garners more visibility. I've shared this before, but think its relevant again since everyone now realizes Barkley is a non factor, and pines for the "good ole days" (lol) of his 2018 rookie year.
The tl;dr is that while his numbers look gaudy, they did not help an offense consistently move the ball. He *did* have incredible home run capabilities, but on a team that needed to consistently move the chains, he was a terrible fit.
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I got in an argument with some friends in my FF league after I said Saquon was just Reggie Bush 2.0, and potentially a worse fit, after which they all called me crazy.
So I signed up for stat geek and plotted all of Reggie Bush's 2011 carries and all of Saquons 2018 carries on a spreadsheet - years when they both had 5 YPC.
I will admit that I did not look at receiving and that's a big part to leave out, but I was talking about how the offense is just not functional with Saquon as a runner.
Findings as follows:
Barkley:
1307 yards on 261 carries
576 yards on highest gaining 13 carries (44% of yardage on top 5% of highest gaining carries)
781 yards on highest gaining 26 carries (59.7% of yardage on top 10% highest gaining carries)
Median ypc: 2
Mode ypc: 1
The most likely outcome of Saquon running the ball was a 1 yard gain.
34 carries resulted in negative yardage for a total of -99.
26 carries resulted in no gain.
41 carries resulted in 1 yard.
Bush:
1086 yards on 216 carries
328 yards on top 11 highest gaining carries
475 yards on top 22 highest gaining carries
median ypc: 3
mode ypc: 3
22 negative yardage runs for a total of -66 yards.
16 rushes resulted in no gain.
20 rushes resulted in 1 yard.
Who would you rather have to help this offense move the ball given the Giants talent level?
Barkley was like this in college also. I fucking hated the pick at the time, have hated it since. I hated his run style even when he was putting up at numbers because it's really not sustainable for an offense to move the ball.
Hell, the 2014-2015 "slant to Odell and wait for him to bail us out" offense was more sustainable
It's likely an underrated factor in Saquons success his rookie year.
Having said that, the tendencies that make him a non factor this year were still there his rookie year. He just appears to have lost some athleticism (or has a mental tentative-ness) that is preventing the big plays, which, when they occurred, at least balanced out the negative ones.
Agreed
Not to say Saquons natural gifts played no part
When the likeliest outcome is a 1 yard gain, the offense can't function.
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Forever believe his numbers from his rookie season was because Eli was making the line calls and audibles putting SB in the right space at the right time.
This is a very good point and something I've thought in passing before, but admittedly never gave enough credence to.
It's likely an underrated factor in Saquons success his rookie year.
Having said that, the tendencies that make him a non factor this year were still there his rookie year. He just appears to have lost some athleticism (or has a mental tentative-ness) that is preventing the big plays, which, when they occurred, at least balanced out the negative ones.
I remember Eli constantly moving Barkley around.
It was actually discussed on BBI as soon as the following year when rookie Daniel Jones was NOT doing this.
I don't know if he's physically the same player anymore. He's had many critical injuries including an ACL.
I don't think teams are as intimdated by Saquon as you think. The good teams knew all they had to do was prevent the big run and they could feast on his 1 yard carries.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
I have believed this since Denver with that incredible line from early to mid 90's seemed to be able to insert any somewhat serviceable RB, and they inevitably lead the league in rushing.
This is the reason that DG is a bad GM. He was too afraid of "NOT" drafting Barkley and seeing him go somewhere else and produce at a high level, which for the short term, may have been true, but in the long term, (not drafting Barkley) would've earned better dividends.
I maintain that RB's and plug and play, regardless of their quads.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
Saquon Barkley
79 rush attempts 254 yards 2 TD's
Baker Mayfield
79 rush attempts 254 yards 2 TD's
Even in Saquon's rookie year, when he was at his best, and with Shurmur running the offense rather than Garrett, the Giants were 17th in the league in yards and 16th in scoring.
Opposing DCs probably were able to get some sleep that year.
There is certainly a debate to be had over how good Barkley's rookie season actually was and, to me, his lack of effectiveness ever since is probably the result of some combination of his injuries and the fact that he was never actually that good in the first place. However, either way, he was the wrong pick at the wrong time and the fact that the most valuable asset that the Giants have possessed in the Gettleman era (the second pick in the draft) was completely wasted, doomed this awful no good terrible rebuild from the very start.
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was he an every down/all situations pounder like zeke or henry? no. but he was the best big play runner in football that year (and a very good receiver in addition to that). He had 7 runs of 40+ yards and only 1 other runner had more than 3 (Chubb had 4). Also his rush 1st down% was 2nd highest of all the runners that went over 1k yards, so it's not like he was entirely boom/bust.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
Fair point but he was being used like a bellcow and that put the offense in negative down and distance/negative drive scripts very often.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
the offense was in negative down/distance first and foremost because the OL sucked, as it has for more than a decade.
That was the year Flowers had 2 or 3 penalties vs. JAX that almost resulted in a safety on the very first drive of the year and only made it a few weeks before Wheeler took over. Omahmem was so bad nobody had time to learn how to spell his name correctly before he got cut midseason. Pio and Pulley sucked. Amazingly Solder/Hernandez and midseason waiver claim Jamon Brown were actually the positives for the group that was starting by the end of the year, and perhaps was the most close to functional offense this org has had in the last half decade (ended the year ranked 16th).
Barkley was the brightest of a small handful of bright spots on that roster and torturing some stats in an effort to cast him as a problem is inaccurate (imo). He scored and a hit big plays better than any other RB in football. That team scored 30+ points 5x in 1 season when the current offense hasn't scored 30 points in 1.5 years. In Barkley's first 2 years they scored 30+ with him on the field 8x.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
I don't know how anyone that watched football for long can tell me Barkley is not a good RB. He has some warts but he's never played a full season or even most of a season since 18.
If he was healthy, he'd be just fine. fans would still find shit in his game to gripe about, and he probably wouldn't be perfect, but he wouldn't be labeled as soft or indecisive or injury prone like he is now.
He's a known talent. He would be producing. He might not be OJ Anderson 1989 or Morris 86 in regards to hammering the hole, but he'd be a 1600 - 2000 all purpose producer with 50-90 catches. And that would be just fine.
HE'S been HURT more than half the time here. Every RB needs reps or needs to develop a groove. Barkley hasn't been afforded this.
If you think Barkley is a subpar RB when he's at his best, you really don't know wtf you're watching.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
This is why Emmitt Smith was so much better than Barry Sanders, and that played a big part in why the Cowboys won and the Lions didn't.
Conversely, they’re no doubt looking to send a blitzer and pressure his awful pass pro skills when he’s in there on passing downs
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His rookie year. But once it became clear that the most likely outcome of a Saquan run is 1 yard, I think the fear starts going away.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
I made a thread on this a while back and the numbers were pretty inconclusive on whether or not he helps the team.
Your correct that they averaged a few more point a gain with him then without him.
However they have a significantly worse record, and oddly enough I think they averaged more rushing yards per game without him.
I would say it’s not definitive that he helps or hurts the team, and that’s a reason to not even consider giving a second contract to him.
I can’t remember the last time a running back was better in his second contact than his first.
This is why Emmitt Smith was so much better than Barry Sanders, and that played a big part in why the Cowboys won and the Lions didn't.
Really? Barry Sanders ran behind a below average Oline. Emmitt ran behind one of the greatest lines of all time. Oh, and he also has 2 other hall of fame players playing with him (Aikman and Irvin)
Lions didn't win because of a trash defense and an even trashier QB.
The Giants are suffering from about 12 different big and small problems. Barkley missing about 75% of the games since 18 is one of them. Maybe their record isn't any better if he plays all these games but I will tell you right now with 100% certainty, the offense would have been better, in terms of PPG and yardage.
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
That said, it is ok to admit SB had a good (or better) rookie season, but has been meh, or injured, since. And that injuries may have ended his shot at greatness. And that he has huge holes his game. At current, jury is still out on the player he is now. We don't need to cast shadows on his rookie year.
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In comment 15465963 Eric on Li said:
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was he an every down/all situations pounder like zeke or henry? no. but he was the best big play runner in football that year (and a very good receiver in addition to that). He had 7 runs of 40+ yards and only 1 other runner had more than 3 (Chubb had 4). Also his rush 1st down% was 2nd highest of all the runners that went over 1k yards, so it's not like he was entirely boom/bust.
Barkley was hitting big plays and scoring TDs every week.
Fair point but he was being used like a bellcow and that put the offense in negative down and distance/negative drive scripts very often.
If the Giants were a highly rated offense and scored a lot of points that year, the benefits would have outweighed the negatives, but they weren't and didn't.
the offense was in negative down/distance first and foremost because the OL sucked, as it has for more than a decade.
That was the year Flowers had 2 or 3 penalties vs. JAX that almost resulted in a safety on the very first drive of the year and only made it a few weeks before Wheeler took over. Omahmem was so bad nobody had time to learn how to spell his name correctly before he got cut midseason. Pio and Pulley sucked. Amazingly Solder/Hernandez and midseason waiver claim Jamon Brown were actually the positives for the group that was starting by the end of the year, and perhaps was the most close to functional offense this org has had in the last half decade (ended the year ranked 16th).
Barkley was the brightest of a small handful of bright spots on that roster and torturing some stats in an effort to cast him as a problem is inaccurate (imo). He scored and a hit big plays better than any other RB in football. That team scored 30+ points 5x in 1 season when the current offense hasn't scored 30 points in 1.5 years. In Barkley's first 2 years they scored 30+ with him on the field 8x.
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
Additionally, I think uconn has a good point Maybe the offense scores a few more points a game, but his lack of an ability to get into reasonable down and distances leads to 3 and outs, which puts the defense on the field more, and most likely hurts their effectiveness.
I don't think it's surprising the Giants have a worse record with Barkley than without him. When the team is this bad, you need to be able to control the clock and get consistent yardage instead of going for a home run and ending up in 2nd and 9s, 3rd and 7s, etc. Just lets the opposing D tee off
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
I'm too young to have seen LT, so I can't comment on the eyeball test, but it feels disparaging to compare LT's rookie year to Saquons.
OBJ IMO had a better rookie year than Saquon. I legit thought that was more impressive.
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
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His rookie year. But once it became clear that the most likely outcome of a Saquan run is 1 yard, I think the fear starts going away.
Defensive coordinators make millions of dollars a year to put their team in a position to succeed. If us fans can see how detrimental the boom or bust play style is to the offense, NFL coordinators certainly see it as well and develop a “we’ll accept the small risk of a big play for the most likely outcome of a 1 yard gain” attitude.
The only thing clear is he's always hurt. He hasn't played a long stretch of healthy games in a row since 18, shit even 2-3, since 19. When he does, he's anything but a one yard fall down RB.
The NYG offense improves by like 3-4 PPG when the guy plays. The numbers show this.
If this a thread discussing his injuries fine have at it. Don't tell me the guy can't produce as well as any RB in the game but that's been tied to health. This is the reality.
You're right. The Giants have scored 21.9 ppg when SB plays since he was drafted; they've scored 17.9 ppg when he does not. I do think it's important to note that both of those numbers suck.
And the injuries do matter. What good is it to build your team around a guy who is going to miss almost 40% of his games no matter how good he is?
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
LT as a rookie? Yea ok.
Yup.
But that's why taking a RB #2 overall is a mistake. RBs get injured more than any other position!
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who actually saw and actually remembers Saquon's rookie season knows he was the best football in the field. It was like when LT was a rookie.
To say otherwise is not correctly remembering the impact he had.
It appears he will go down as another Tucker Frederickson, but at the time, he was a special football player. Trust your own eyes.
LT as a rookie? Yea ok.
Barkley gained 2,000 yards as a rookie on a team with a shitty offensive line. Every time he touched the ball, he was a threat to score.
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My guess is it is too painful for some fans such as yourself to actually admit that Saquon was special and has become a shadow of himself in just a couple of years. That's what has happened.
Yup.
Similar to how it is too painful for some fans to actually admit he is that shadow today...
We don't know WTF Barkley is because he's never on the field. When he is on the field and not fresh off the IR list he's a dynamic playmaker capable of 16-2000 all purpose yardage. This is just a fact.
No knows WTF he is. Even on Monday night, Barkley averaged like 5 yards per touch but according to this thread he was 1 yard and down....NOPE...wrong.
Saquon Barkley's FULL Rookie Highlights - ( New Window )
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.