Forgive me for posting this word for word from another post, but I believe this garners more visibility. I've shared this before, but think its relevant again since everyone now realizes Barkley is a non factor, and pines for the "good ole days" (lol) of his 2018 rookie year.
The tl;dr is that while his numbers look gaudy, they did not help an offense consistently move the ball. He *did* have incredible home run capabilities, but on a team that needed to consistently move the chains, he was a terrible fit.
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I got in an argument with some friends in my FF league after I said Saquon was just Reggie Bush 2.0, and potentially a worse fit, after which they all called me crazy.
So I signed up for stat geek and plotted all of Reggie Bush's 2011 carries and all of Saquons 2018 carries on a spreadsheet - years when they both had 5 YPC.
I will admit that I did not look at receiving and that's a big part to leave out, but I was talking about how the offense is just not functional with Saquon as a runner.
Findings as follows:
Barkley:
1307 yards on 261 carries
576 yards on highest gaining 13 carries (44% of yardage on top 5% of highest gaining carries)
781 yards on highest gaining 26 carries (59.7% of yardage on top 10% highest gaining carries)
Median ypc: 2
Mode ypc: 1
The most likely outcome of Saquon running the ball was a 1 yard gain.
34 carries resulted in negative yardage for a total of -99.
26 carries resulted in no gain.
41 carries resulted in 1 yard.
Bush:
1086 yards on 216 carries
328 yards on top 11 highest gaining carries
475 yards on top 22 highest gaining carries
median ypc: 3
mode ypc: 3
22 negative yardage runs for a total of -66 yards.
16 rushes resulted in no gain.
20 rushes resulted in 1 yard.
Who would you rather have to help this offense move the ball given the Giants talent level?
Barkley was like this in college also. I fucking hated the pick at the time, have hated it since. I hated his run style even when he was putting up at numbers because it's really not sustainable for an offense to move the ball.
Hell, the 2014-2015 "slant to Odell and wait for him to bail us out" offense was more sustainable
Yeah, barkley is a 1 yard and done runner. Just stop already.
We don't know WTF Barkley is because he's never on the field. When he is on the field and not fresh off the IR list he's a dynamic playmaker capable of 16-2000 all purpose yardage. This is just a fact.
No knows WTF he is. Even on Monday night, Barkley averaged like 5 yards per touch but according to this thread he was 1 yard and down....NOPE...wrong.
So then what’s your stance?? A few of us on this thread have said we don’t think he helps the team win and we shouldn’t extend him.
Sounds like your just saying IDK so you won’t be wrong either way.
Are you saying the giants should extend him?
I would take Tiki 100 out of 100 times over Barkley
Yeah, barkley is a 1 yard and done runner. Just stop already.
This is not a discussion on whether to take a RB at #2 or not, its simply stating facts and being fair. This year is a waste as it is with most players returning from his injury in year 1. My opinion is that next year, being a longer time away from his injury, and given a decent OL, Barkley will be a stud. Since he is extended now, I guess we will see.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
His lack of effort in blocking on pass plays is atrocious.
He does not need to see a second contract by the Giants based on his present play. He has lost his balance tripping over himself on multiple plays and just dances behind the LOS on far too many plays. I know the OL sucks but you got to get as much as possible on each play instead of dancing. Look at Booker and Penney's run effort versus Barkley. Very noticeable...
I still believe SB was taken to help Eli as a threat and then to be a "Tiki" for a new QB. Unfortunately the OL was never put in place to maximize his talent. Then the injuries.
Really good point about Eli adjusting to the right play. One of his great talents that he showed very early in his career. Gilbride praised him often for this ability.
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But telling OP to “watch the highlights and see how special he was” isn’t really the point he seems to be making.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
Yes and no.
One of the huge complaints we all had with the previous coaching staff was that Saquon would be killing a team. Remember the game against the Eagles where the Giants were dominating them because they couldn't handle Saquon? And then Saquon's number wasn't called except for a few touches in the second half?
That wasn't because Saquon was not being productive. It was because the offensive coaches shit the bed.
I swear some of you guys don't remember your own posts from a few years ago.
We're literally being told that a 2,000 yard season was a "myth".
Without injury he was the most exciting thing I ever saw in a Giant uniform not named LT. I don't call players who succumb to injuries as busts, it is just part of the game. If we picked him up in the second round or third we would all still be rooting for him. Lay the blame where it belongs with that crook GETTLEMAN!
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
Are you telling us that Hakeem Nicks and Bradshaw didn't have their share of exciting plays?
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
Keeping defensive coordinators up nights, ha ha, I can just picture it in my mind.
We are playing against Saquon, what can we possibly do?!? Oh, right, keep 8 men in the box. Ok I'm gonna get some sleep now.
News flash, NO defensive coordinator us losing sleep because of the Giants' offense.
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Aren’t we all giants fans, hoping for them to win another Super Bowl?
This debate kinda ties perfectly into Beckham’s career with the Giants. If you value excitement plays more than winning then you’ll favor having guys like Beckham and Barkley.
I’d rather take Hakeem nicks and Bradshaw.
Are you telling us that Hakeem Nicks and Bradshaw didn't have their share of exciting plays?
That’s what you gathered from that post? I’m saying they have less impressive highlight reels than Beckham and Barkley.
However with that said, I think they played better winning football (less negative plays)
In 2019 he got the high ankle sprain in the first half of game 3 (after rushing for 100+ yards in games 1 and 2). Once he got healthy he ended the year strong with huge games in weeks 15-17.
In 2020 he tore his ACL and had other knee damage in the first half of game 2.
This year he was coming back from the ACL and sprained his ankle in the first half of game 5.
Isn't the premise of this thread the myth of 2018?
That has nothing to do with the disaster that has been 2019 and beyond.
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My guess is it is too painful for some fans such as yourself to actually admit that Saquon was special and has become a shadow of himself in just a couple of years. That's what has happened.
He had the best big play ability from a RB I've ever seen. I will admit that. But he wasn't a bellcow and that's what the franchise and fans thought they were getting.
I would take Tiki 100 out of 100 times over Barkley
I’m with you. Tiki had much better vision and was miles ahead in pass protection. Way too many negative plays from SB and he doesn’t punish a D. He’s not physical and no one is hesitant to tackle him. Thunder lightning combo was the best followed by prime Tiki who is criminally underrated in NYG world
Opposing defenses do not fear Saquon.
Look at this article and scroll down to the chart downing RBs and stacked defense index. Saquon is way down on the bottom
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/opposing-defenses-show-us-just-how-scary-derrick-henry-is/
But no sane person would have taken Tiki over Saquon based on each of their rookie seasons. Tiki had a fine rookie season, but it wasn't Saquon good.
And how we forget... BBI was done with Tiki until Coughlin "fixed" his fumbling problem. The second-half of Tiki's career is what made his legacy, not the first half.
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In comment 15466136 uconn18 said:
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But telling OP to “watch the highlights and see how special he was” isn’t really the point he seems to be making.
The highlights are the top 20 or so runs which are no doubt unbelievably impressive. We’d all need to rewatch the whole season or every carry to get a better idea. I think the point is that there’s weren’t a lot of 4-8 yard runs which are super important to winning football.
That's always the point. What's the use of 1-2 big runs a game if 18 other plays are wasted downs?
I think even Shurmur realized this. Remember how he'd always move away from Barkley in games and people would complain?
Yes and no.
One of the huge complaints we all had with the previous coaching staff was that Saquon would be killing a team. Remember the game against the Eagles where the Giants were dominating them because they couldn't handle Saquon? And then Saquon's number wasn't called except for a few touches in the second half?
That wasn't because Saquon was not being productive. It was because the offensive coaches shit the bed.
I swear some of you guys don't remember your own posts from a few years ago.
We're literally being told that a 2,000 yard season was a "myth".
Two RBs have 20 carries for 100 yards.
Who you want? The one who actually ran for 5 YPC, or the one who broke off a 60 yard run on 1 carry and had 40 yards on the remaining 19 carries? Which one gives the team a better chance to win?
But no sane person would have taken Tiki over Saquon based on each of their rookie seasons. Tiki had a fine rookie season, but it wasn't Saquon good.
And how we forget... BBI was done with Tiki until Coughlin "fixed" his fumbling problem. The second-half of Tiki's career is what made his legacy, not the first half.
Well, I was talking about Tiki's prime (2005) vs what Saquon's prime has been to this point (2018)
I specifically recall you calling me an asshole for calling Saquon a backfield dancer. And then citing a whole bunch of useless statistics since you are the self appointed BBI football gatekeeping genius and everyone else that doesn't agree with you is just a low IQ football moron. Newsflash- you are a dumb fuck just like the rest of us.
If the ball goes your way almost 400 times you better have over 2000 yards. Hugely overrated player.
the reason is he has to go
As long as Gettleman is around he will be demanding his Gold Jacket Guy get the reps
He is a boat anchor out there....has wayyyyyyyyy to many Daynes for No Gain- drive killers, 3rd and long festivals
Add to that your Sister Shirley can out block this guy
He is a QBs worse nightmare as a bodyguard
He has been known to turn his back to oncoming rushers
GET RID OF HIM while there is still a 6th round draft choice to be had in return.....werent Brady and Johnny Unitas 6th rounders?
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
I think the whole point of the post is to show that even in this 2018 season, there was a lot of sizzle but no steak. He made highlight reel plays but didn't actually help the team win ball games.
He's a gadget player. Give him a few carries here and there, line him up in the slot, split him wide, scheme him into open space. That's what he is.
You can't win that way. running the ball is supposed to yield positive yardage.
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and I am a huge PSU fan. I didn't want him here for all the endless reasons I have written. My fingers are crossed that we trade him and don't compound the dumb decision to draft him by re-signing him.
But let's be honest. He was electric his rookie year. There was an aimless/adlib quality to his game that worked as teams/DCs struggled to figure him out in both the running and passing game.
Since then, we have seen the league do what it typically does - figure out how to defend a player. And that player, in this case SB, and his team to a degree, have not figured out how to counter that enough. And now SB is in the meat of the dreaded diminishing returns curve.
I think the whole point of the post is to show that even in this 2018 season, there was a lot of sizzle but no steak. He made highlight reel plays but didn't actually help the team win ball games.
He's a gadget player. Give him a few carries here and there, line him up in the slot, split him wide, scheme him into open space. That's what he is.
They have WRs they don’t get the ball already, where are you lining him up. Can’t be in the backfield other teams will blitz leaving him in there to shy away from a block. Can’t have him in there in first down to run, because you are 90% of the time going to be looking 2nd and more than 8.
If the ball goes your way almost 400 times you better have over 2000 yards. Hugely overrated player.
he rushed for 5 ypc - which was the best in the NFL among RBs with 200+ attempts and 9th best if you include those under 200.
so the only way your convoluted statement can be stretched to even a slight bit of truth-fullness is if you are including yards per play on passing plays among your "average play" comparison set - which would be comparing 2 things that simply aren't judged on the same scale. There's a reason top QB's average 300+ yards passing with 10+ Y/C and top RB's only average 100+ yards rushing with 4+ Y/R, there's a different scale to the value of different types of yards gained. Or the standard rules of FF scoring have been wrong for 3 decades.
so "per play" you are comparing apples to orangoutangs. but you know you that.
I assume your next reply will be some version of "that's why running backs are fungible" and my reply to that would be that Barkley still produced touchdowns and big plays (20+ and 40+) at a rate matched by only a handful of other top skill players, so hopefully that will save each of us some time.
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...
There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.
However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.
Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.
In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.
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How old are you? (I just want to know if you were around in 1981 watching LT).
There were many, many posts on BBI during Saquon's rookie season from old posters (not just me) who kept saying, "I haven't seen anything like this since LT" (and they were including Odell in that conversation). These weren't 30 year old saying it but 50-80 year olds.
Go back and re-watch any YouTube highlight clip from Saquon's rookie season.
I said at the time I had never seen a running back make such an impact as a rookie since Eric Dickerson.
I beg to differ.
I am in that 50+ year old group and remember LT quite well...
There is no doubt that Barkley had a number of eye popping plays. Spectacular highlight reel stuff.
However, I fully recall how many times he was stuffed in his rookie year. I have written any number of times that his success rate per touch was near the bottom of the league. This ties in with the analysis of the OP.
Those plays for 1 yard or less kill drives and keep points off the board. There is good evidence that suggests that the correlation with winning football is with the rate of successful plays. In other words the explosive plays do not make up for the all the stalled drives and missed opportunities.
In my opinion, his rookie year is a mirage that is hidden behind a small percentage of truly spectacular plays. Bottom line is that I don't think he was very helpful to the team even in his rookie year.
To be clear, their is a correlation between winning football and successful rushing plays.
Passing is a different story.
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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.
He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.
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In comment 15466175 Brown_Hornet said:
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...used in the OP suggest that Barkley made the very best out of what we have come to know as a bad OL and offense in general.
That said, I view him as a luxury that a team like the Giants cannot afford.
Here’s some more stats, 2019 to present:
Saquan: 296 carries 1,257 yards, 4.2 ypc
Backup RB on roster (Gallman/booker): 264 carries 1,122 yards, 4.25 ypc
Do these stats backup that narrative
no they don’t.
As a matter of fact they don’t address the OP nor do they address my post.
He had a great rookie season trying to take that away only makes people look foolish.
He had a rookie year that had some eye popping spectacular plays...
However calling it great? That is in the eye of the beholder I guess. To me, it is not great when you 38th out of 39 qualifying players in rushing success rate (which is what I believe what it was, if not those numbers are close).
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
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he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?
Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?
The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.
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In comment 15466363 UConn4523 said:
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he was all we had on offense, no shit it was under the league average. How did using our other players work out for us?
His yards per touch in 2018 were higher than Elliotts in 2017 and that Dallas team went 13-3. I guess Elliotts YPT was horrific then.
How many negative runs do Elliot have? How many times do you see Elliot shy away from blocking? Maybe the rest of the team got no yards was because after he danced in the back field it was 2nd or 3rd and long with no back to pick up the blitz.
You can keep telling yourself that. I’ll ask a better question, what has this offense done before Barkley and during his injuries?
Based on your theory we would have been a better team without him in 2018, a Gallman or would have sufficed, apparently. Ohh wait, we had that in 2017, how did that go?
The team has sucked, which is clear as day for anyone not trying to shoehorn in an agenda. Drafting Barkley has proven to be unwise, but making a thread about him having a BS rookie year is hysterical.
This feels like one of those BBI debates that always polarizes to the extremes.
The reality is, IMO, Barkley didn't make the Giants worse. But he sure as hell didn't make us any better.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.
I think it's safe to assume Gettleman’s complete evaluation was something like "Whoa! You see that kid run?? We gotta get him."
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
Eric's not wrong he was very special in 2018 (perhaps not LT special, but he produced some rare air level running back play). Many are conflating it with the weak play post-injuries and only remembering the latter.
I think that's (as usual) a very fair perspective, Jon.
But I also think that it's worth remembering that his rarified-air rookie year didn't really change the fortunes of the franchise. He was a wrong-time/wrong-team pick, and now he might not even still be the player that he was dreamt to be.
That latter factor isn't his fault. He plays RB; RBs get hurt. And they rely so much on athleticism that even the slightest reduction in explosiveness can be exponentially detrimental to their production.
And this doesn't go toward you, because I know you get it, but instead to many of the other posters here who reflexively defend our players even when they fall short: when Barkley was drafted, one of the things that DG said was that SB was the sort of player that made an OL look good; that he was the sort of player that made the rest of his offense look good.
It was highlight-reel talk, when we needed boring success to rebuild the foundation.