Forgive me for posting this word for word from another post, but I believe this garners more visibility. I've shared this before, but think its relevant again since everyone now realizes Barkley is a non factor, and pines for the "good ole days" (lol) of his 2018 rookie year.
The tl;dr is that while his numbers look gaudy, they did not help an offense consistently move the ball. He *did* have incredible home run capabilities, but on a team that needed to consistently move the chains, he was a terrible fit.
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I got in an argument with some friends in my FF league after I said Saquon was just Reggie Bush 2.0, and potentially a worse fit, after which they all called me crazy.
So I signed up for stat geek and plotted all of Reggie Bush's 2011 carries and all of Saquons 2018 carries on a spreadsheet - years when they both had 5 YPC.
I will admit that I did not look at receiving and that's a big part to leave out, but I was talking about how the offense is just not functional with Saquon as a runner.
Findings as follows:
Barkley:
1307 yards on 261 carries
576 yards on highest gaining 13 carries (44% of yardage on top 5% of highest gaining carries)
781 yards on highest gaining 26 carries (59.7% of yardage on top 10% highest gaining carries)
Median ypc: 2
Mode ypc: 1
The most likely outcome of Saquon running the ball was a 1 yard gain.
34 carries resulted in negative yardage for a total of -99.
26 carries resulted in no gain.
41 carries resulted in 1 yard.
Bush:
1086 yards on 216 carries
328 yards on top 11 highest gaining carries
475 yards on top 22 highest gaining carries
median ypc: 3
mode ypc: 3
22 negative yardage runs for a total of -66 yards.
16 rushes resulted in no gain.
20 rushes resulted in 1 yard.
Who would you rather have to help this offense move the ball given the Giants talent level?
Barkley was like this in college also. I fucking hated the pick at the time, have hated it since. I hated his run style even when he was putting up at numbers because it's really not sustainable for an offense to move the ball.
Hell, the 2014-2015 "slant to Odell and wait for him to bail us out" offense was more sustainable
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I recognize that he had great individual productivity as a rookie. But we weren't a better team by any significant measure than the year before. He wasn't drafted as fantasy football RB; he was drafted to help us turn a moribund franchise around. That hasn't happened, and it didn't happen in his rookie year.
I keep reading people refer to his rookie year with superlatives. Any way you slice, the numbers are impressive. If anything, his involvement in the passing game was the most impressive and what I would want to see replicated most now. But, his rushing numbers were deceptive. As you point out, the YPC as an average doesn't really tell the whole story. There were a number of games where those numbers were skewed by 1 big run late in a meaningless game situation. The reality is the majority of his runs were pedestrian.
That said, there was enough dynamic play to be optimistic. Between injuries and an even worse OL, if you can believe that, his play has actually regressed. At best, he has amounted to a mediocre RB over the last 3 seasons.
Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
Tough spot, but it often happens this way in the NFL. I hope he will return to form after another year of healing in the knee. But, right now I can't say the draft pick isn't regrettable. It's in the red for now.
But, the boom or bust running style ... he should be able to fix it to some extent, and that's where patience and being able to feel and find the hole SHOULD get better as he gains experience and the live action should slow down for him. I'm frustrated he's not showing it yet, but I also do see the poor run blocking in front of him not helping.
Need to see more to determine if he's going to get it all back physically, or if he's a different athlete now. I'm a little nervous for him, frankly, and for NYG.
And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.
Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.
I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.
I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
Injuries aside which are obviously hampering him, Barkley has shown enough weaknesses in his game and non-development in his running style as well that we know this not to be true.
I do think some are discounting Barkley's rookie year. He was very, very good. Terrible pick, though, and I think he's lacked a lot of the explosiveness. He would have been better served going to the Browns (or any other franchise, really).
How is that an agenda?
You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?
It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
And I don't say this contradict our good posters and friends here at BBI. But I'm just saying, I never thought any player on any team that I ever watched play football came even close to playing at the level of LT.
Saquon's rookie year? Some amazing plays, to be sure. But, LT like? No. And the point isn't insignificant. LT took over games. For like a decade. Entire games. LT dominated in a way unlike any I've seen. Year in and year out, he was the best player in the league and it wasn't close and no one doubted it or even bothered to try and debate it.
I'm certain of almost nothing in this world except for the simple statement of truth: LT was the greatest football player I ever saw. And I know to the young guys this probably sounds like old man hyperbole, but, no one I've ever seen has ever even been close.
I don't even think Saquon was as good a OBJ. And tbh, I don't think Saquon has ever even been the best RB in the NFL for a season. I think Saquon is one of the most over rated and over hyped athletes I've ever seen in any sport.
FTFY
Face it. He's a bust and a loser.
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another reason why these threads are funny. But hey, it’s agenda time!
How is that an agenda?
You're right, no one has made us better. Which player was drafted higher or sooner than Barkley?
It's not an indictment on Saquon; it's a reflection on the pick itself.
I agree with most of what you have said. What I am saying is that 2018 was a great performance. 2nd pick of the 1st RD or the 5th RD, it was a great performance.
Conversations re: value for the 2nd pick, his performance since, the future cost...all topical, relevant and interesting, just not to the OP.
I happen to think the truth is somewhere in between.
I think that Barkley's rookie year was individually impressive but also think that the OP makes some very strong points about the feast or famine nature of SB's production even at his best.
Now we rarely even get the feast, but still get plenty of famine. Seeing SB stop cold behind the LOS prior to contact on a few occasions Monday night was brutal. I hope that he's still just shaking the rust off, but we won't know for a bit, I suspect.
You are a bottomless pit of shit takes.
I'm not even arguing against most of what you're saying. But the idea that the college that a kid attends, regardless of the coaching staff, the scheme, the teammates at the time, etc., somehow has some fucking curse on what kind of NFL player he'll become is insane.
How have UNC linebackers done in the NFL? What about Morehead State QBs? UMass WRs? Texas Southern DEs?
If you want to be a fucking mouthbreather, then just call into WFAN and leave the grown-up talk to the adults.
Just please remember I was doing this at like 10 AM during a workday just to win an argument, so I more or less downloaded from Statgeek, put it into a spreadsheet, sorted, filtered, and used a couple formulas.
I'm a huge critic of Barkley at this point, but he was actually decent at pass blocking in 2018. Quite probably because Eli was making adjustments for him and telling him where to expect the defenders.
So people need to spare me the fucking theatrics of his historical rookie year. It wasn't even the best in franchise history.
At least OBJ's first couple years were the best years by a WR on the Giants
We should know pretty quickly how much Garrett was holding back the Giants and Jones. If Kitchens doesn’t make a difference, then Garrett wasn’t the problem.
I know it’s a not a style conducive to consistency. I believe it was FStubbs who showed me on another thread how this style isn’t favorable in terms of EPA and other PbP data driven measurements.
But there is absolutely value in having a player capable of creating big plays from areas of the field that defenses don’t expect to give up a TD from. Barkley being a TD threat from his own 20 is simply something defensive coordinators had to consider.
PFF isn’t gospel, I always take it with a grain of salt. But in their rankings of NFL players in 2018, they ranked Barkley as the #1 RB and #7 skill position player.
I loved those Tiki seasons and I’m still praying that Barkley develops Tiki’s patience and vision. Those prime Tiki seasons were something else. But let’s not forget the difference between Tiki’s OL and Barkley’s in 2018. Even though I’d agree that Tiki’s best season was better than Barkley’s rookie season, it doesn’t mean that Barkley having a good season was a “myth”.
Big play reliant but don’t underestimate the value of a big play.
Faulk might be the most complete back I’ve ever seen. One thing jump out as lacking in Barkley’s game that Faulk had at all time great level is intelligence. Faulk was really smart and I’m not saying Barks is dumb but I think Faulk knew every play and every players assignment. He was, by all accounts incredibly smart and hyper prepared. Haven’t heard that about Saquon.
Faulk was also a very willing and very capable pass protector. Barkley’s a minus pass blocker and that impacts how the Giants can use him and really limits any Faulk like deployment. I think at least.
We all know h’s in the HOF, but even among the other HOF, Faulk stands as one of the very best.
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
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In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.
Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.
Nelson is an all pro guard who went 4 picks after Barkley and he 100% would have made the offense better. What’s the point of reminiscing about saquons rookie year? The team went 5-11. And gallman and booker have looked better than a healthy Barkley the last two years. It was a terrible pick. Extending him would be malpractice
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In comment 15466503 Brown_Hornet said:
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In comment 15466483 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15466442 Brown_Hornet said:
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... That's kind of my point.
He wasn't on a good enough team to be consistently good.
He took what would not have been opportunities for most backs and made them opportunities.
#2 overall picks aren't supposed to need a good team. They're supposed to be part of creating a good team.
Drafting Barkley wasn't about providing him with a path to Canton. It was about his supposedly inevitable path to Canton restoring our franchise.
I understand that everyone has strong opinions in several ways about Saquon Barkley but the conversation regarding his rookie season is the only thing I am referring to.
The Giants should have looked elsewhere when adding to their roster…
… that does not change the fact that he had a great rookie season.
I disagree that he had a "Great" rookie season.
He had some great individual efforts on a small percentage of his plays (about 5%).
The vast majority of his plays were failed plays. about 70%.
Even many of his successful plays came in garbage time.
His stats, i.e. rushing yards, yards per carry, receptions, etc. are very misleading.
Football is not baseball. You can't fail 70% of the time and call it a great season.
Imagine if a receiver either dropped the ball, or failed to run the right route, or didn't run his route to the sticks 70% of the time. You would run him out on a rail. Look at Engram. His success % is higher than 30% and we all want him gone.
I think to many people fall in love with the exciting highlight reel play, and forget about what really wins football games. It is the little things that win games, and those things usually don't make the highlight reels. Barkley sucks at almost all the little things, including his rookie season.
Im sorry that you cannot see the forest for the trees.
The brilliance is the small percentage that special players arevable to produce given otherwise dire circumstances.
Instead of using statistics or metrics to make you preconceived assumptions, enjoy what you see.
Recognize the small moments of greatness and understand that the moments are small for the reasons that they are.
That is the problem, those plays were too few and far between to make up for the pain of the failed plays. I saw wayyyyy too many failed plays. I don't enjoy failed plays. I don't enjoy losing football.
Like I said, people get enamored with the special plays, but it isn't winning football. Winning football lacks those spectacular plays. But it all lacks most of the failures.
You’ve made up your mind.
Be well.
You’ve made up your mind.
Be well.
Yes, my mind is made up... As is yours...
As for me, I don't care about a few brilliant plays. I care about winning. Boom or bust with a very small percentage of boom and a high percentage of bust is not winning football. 5 - 11 records goes a long way to helping one make up their mind!