Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
18m
Sources: Mets have offered Scherzer more than $40 million per year. Length unknown. Doesn’t mean he’ll sign there; that’s still unclear.
I think they have a chance in this but right now this is feeling very much like leaking the top offer to get any other offers out there up. Fingers crossed this time around goes better.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years.
@martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum.
@MLBNetwork
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
2m
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years. @martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
He is going to earn an absolute fortune next offseason. He'll be 34 so a 5+ year deal is likely not out of the question based on the precedents being set. Probably $40-$50m a season.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
2m
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years. @martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
Also kind of interesting Stroman hasn’t gotten signed yet with all these other pitchers in demand. If he was a GM I know who he’d pick.
Really hope they get Scherzer done but if they don’t remember the money is still there. Rodon + whoever else isn’t the end of the world. Everyone other than Scherzer is a dice roll.
Players would rather go to Canada for less money than to play for the Mets. It’s just comical at this point.
Dude.. the New York Mets are willing to spend money with anyone.. how are you not happy about that??
They went into the season last year with best roster on paper in NL.. and it didn't work out..
Now they are working to retool it and spending A LOT of money.
You should be excited...
Yeah, I was excited. But now that it’s trendy to turn down the Mets huge offers…what exactly is all this money getting us? Backup players? Please.
I’m confident that our offense…as currently constructed…will get back in track after last year. Our huge gaping hole was, and is, pitching.
And can we PLEASE stop saying how great we are ON PAPER? I’m still waiting for the team to actually back up that statement that we hear every single off-season from fans.
in June last year boras wanted an extension w any trade
Since scherzer had the right to veto. As it got close to the deadline I think there was more likely hesitation from Washington wanting to trade him within the division and for him more appeal to the teams with the better chance for WS.
But boras put his cards out there in June - he was looking to leverage an extension with any trade. The $ matters here (hopefully more than jt did last year with Bauer).
Players would rather go to Canada for less money than to play for the Mets. It’s just comical at this point.
Dude.. the New York Mets are willing to spend money with anyone.. how are you not happy about that??
They went into the season last year with best roster on paper in NL.. and it didn't work out..
Now they are working to retool it and spending A LOT of money.
You should be excited...
Yeah, I was excited. But now that it’s trendy to turn down the Mets huge offers…what exactly is all this money getting us? Backup players? Please.
I’m confident that our offense…as currently constructed…will get back in track after last year. Our huge gaping hole was, and is, pitching.
And can we PLEASE stop saying how great we are ON PAPER? I’m still waiting for the team to actually back up that statement that we hear every single off-season from fans.
Every single off-season?? This is off-season #2 in the Cohen era!!
We all had plenty to complain about in Wilpon era...because they would never spend, even on their own guys!! Never once went over luxury tax threshold...Cohen did it in year 2!!
Scherzer or not I'm so excited about being a Mets fan.. the Wilpon era is behind us, screw the pundits who try to make it seem like everything the Mets do is bad..it's just NY
Scherzer said he would only accept a trade to an NL team. Never said anything about the Mets. Nats did not want to trade him in the division so that basically left only a few teams so they sent him to the Dodgers in a mega deal.
Not sure I completely buy it but worth remembering that as fans we get everything at second hand and a lot of what we get is hearsay.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
19s
The #Mets are making progress with Max Scherzer. Have not heard it is final. Deal might be for as much as 4 years if it gets done.
I feel pretty discouraged after losing out on:
Matz
Syndergaard
Gausman
Gray
Who is left as a #2, #3? I know Strohman is, and I'm not thrilled about him.
The rotation does NOT necessarily need another big starting pitcher. deGrom-Sherzer-Carrasco-Walker is the top 4. You then have Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and Lucchesi later competing for the 5.
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
The rotation does NOT necessarily need another big starting pitcher. deGrom-Sherzer-Carrasco-Walker is the top 4. You then have Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and Lucchesi later competing for the 5.
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
agree with this, but....I'd definitely be more interested with deGrom and Scherzer heading a rotation in a trade for someone like Mahle.
Take your strength and protect it. that's how you use your farm IMO.
Not to get someone like Baez in a likely lost year/Hail Mary.
Doug Rush
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: The Mets and Max Scherzer are “gaining traction” on a deal getting done. The Dodgers are not optimistic on keeping him. Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler are working to get it done.
The rotation does NOT necessarily need another big starting pitcher. deGrom-Sherzer-Carrasco-Walker is the top 4. You then have Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and Lucchesi later competing for the 5.
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
agree with this, but....I'd definitely be more interested with deGrom and Scherzer heading a rotation in a trade for someone like Mahle.
Take your strength and protect it. that's how you use your farm IMO.
Not to get someone like Baez in a likely lost year/Hail Mary.
And Id be fine with that... But people acting like we should be desperate for more pitching, even after signing Sherzer.... ugh... We actually have a bunch of decent backend depth stashed away.
The two backup plans sign within a short period of time
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
1m
Growing indications that Scherzer is headed to Mets, sources tell @TheAthletic. NYM “making progress,” per @Joelsherman1.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Growing indications that Scherzer is headed to Mets, sources tell
@TheAthletic
. NYM “making progress,” per
@JoelSherman1
.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
now
Growing industry expectation Scherzer goes to Mets. Other teams falling out of bidding, per sources. Not done deal.
Quote:
Adam Rubin @AdamRubinMedia
40s
I honestly think this could be the start of a pipeline of Scott Boras clients to the Mets in future years, like there seemed to be at one point with the Nationals. Deep-pocketed, relatively new owner. Makes sense to me.
Kumar Rocker out there somewhere listening to my chemical romance on repeat.
Doug Rush
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: The belief around MLB right now is that Max Scherzer is signing with the Mets. It’s a matter of for how many years. 3 hours ago, it was at 2. Then it went to 3. A fourth year might end this and signs the deal.
Is crazy to think about. Especially since anyone over the age of 1 knows what it's like to be a Mets fan and know you never, ever, ever had a chance at a player like this in free agency.
Times have changed.
assuming this goes through they need to next focus on finding youth
with whatever value hunting they do the rest of the way. I think the 3 every day guys they got were solid values and have no crazy risk factors, but a team that faded down the stretch is adding 3 guys getting close to their "mid 30s".
Would love to see them try to find a few gambles like Nick Senzel or other similarly talented guys who haven't figured it out yet.
McNeil, Davis, and Dom for pennies on the dollar IMO. Hope we keep them around.
agreed. anyone is tradeable if the return is good enough but no reason to give up on any of them unless there's someone they think is a real find.
I'd prefer to try to grab a guy like Senzel from a team looking to save some $ by taking back another contract with him and paying a non-top 15 prospect cost.
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
He is being signed so the Mets can pitch him and deGrom 4 out of 7 times in a playoff series. Plus Citi is a pitchers park, which will help with any decline.
To be honest I'm not sure what a "decline" would look like for him anyway. He can get people out just fine with his offspeed stuff, so even if there is a velocity dip I don't know how negative it would actually be.
RE: RE: Lol, I’m sorry but let’s not act like this is some massive, in their
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
im gonna need to call the Dr about this boner not going away 😂
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
Happy to inject a bit of reality into everyone’s wet dream. Talking like we just signed 27 year old Max Scherzer.
we have a money bags owner willing to do it. its not my money and the guys who it is doesnt seem to care how much he throws to him. I'll enjoy deGrom and Scherzer as long as possible, thanks though. mets fans will complain they do t spend and when they do spend. cant win. will you hate being the big spenders everyone hates also?
RE: RE: RE: Lol, I’m sorry but let’s not act like this is some massive, in their
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
im gonna need to call the Dr about this boner not going away 😂
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
Happy to inject a bit of reality into everyone’s wet dream. Talking like we just signed 27 year old Max Scherzer.
we have a money bags owner willing to do it. its not my money and the guys who it is doesnt seem to care how much he throws to him. I'll enjoy deGrom and Scherzer as long as possible, thanks though. mets fans will complain they do t spend and when they do spend. cant win. will you hate being the big spenders everyone hates also?
It isn’t about spending as much as how much we spend to sign a pitcher that’s 38 years old. Guys like Cohen don’t get were they are by losing money. It’s great that we are spending big on a player, but at some point the bill needs to be paid. We don’t have an unlimited budget…as much as many of you want to believe. If we get Scherzer…I hope we get as much out of him as we can…while we can.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Lol, I’m sorry but let’s not act like this is some massive, in their
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
You have to understand what's happening...they are going to spend A LOT on free agents while they rebuild the farm, just like Dodgers did. And yeah, they will probably be limited more by roster size than $$ in the near term.
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
You have to understand what's happening...they are going to spend A LOT on free agents while they rebuild the farm, just like Dodgers did. And yeah, they will probably be limited more by roster size than $$ in the near term.
I'm not ruling out Baez or Stroman here still...
Richest owner in sports man.
From your lips to gods ears. Funny that all that money couldn’t also get them some of those other pitchers too? But we’ll see I guess.
if they get max that should rule out stroman + baez
they should have already ruled out stroman because he is revealing himself to be exactly the type of non-winner they should not want in their clubhouse.
but the fact is they get Scherzer for $40m+ and the payroll is up to $260m and highest in MLB.
I'm not saying stop spending. Far from it. Add depth wherever you can. But don't spend risky money. Add glue guys and worthy gambles. Take on cash for talented young players wherever possible.
This is a gamble on the present. Spend the rest of the money gambling on guys who can possibly contribute and add depth now and maybe have the talent to be more in the future. That's the LAD model.
That if this is a three or four year contract, that the third and fourth year salaries are based on the previous years performance. Incentive based for last year or two.
while we wait to hear officially Stroman is busy beclowning himself
Marc Carig called him out for liking a tweet by someone that used a slur against Anthony Dicomo.
Stro lied and claimed it was photoshopped. Called out Carig for believing a fake image.
And then Carig came in with the KO punch because he took the screenshot himself (so it's not faked), and Stro not only liked it but then put on a show lying about it.
Doug Rush
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have submitted their offer to Max Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, which is likely a 3-year, $126 million deal ($42M). The Mets are awaiting to hear back from Scherzer’s camp.
RE: while we wait to hear officially Stroman is busy beclowning himself
Marc Carig called him out for liking a tweet by someone that used a slur against Anthony Dicomo.
Stro lied and claimed it was photoshopped. Called out Carig for believing a fake image.
And then Carig came in with the KO punch because he took the screenshot himself (so it's not faked), and Stro not only liked it but then put on a show lying about it.
Im really over Stroman. Really hope we can finish this Sherzer deal so he's no longer an option.
Obviously I don't know Stroman personally, but I'm not bothered by his social media...I thin she's a fine 3rd or 4th starter and I love how he competes on the field..However, I understand why a lot of what he does and says would rub people the wrong way and everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
like SCherz than Baez. As much as I like Baez and the idea of best defense is a good offense. Late last season proved they really needed another pitcher. I hope they move on from Stro -- I could be wrong but i just have a strange feeling his better years are behind him plus he is baggage.
coast so he is probably giving those teams (dodgers are the only ones paying 40 per) a chance to get close to the Mets. I dont take it as a knock on us, he wants to play out west. And yeah at this point the longer it drags the less likely it happens, ha. But i mean Gray's agent would be an idiot to let him sign before seeing what happens with scherzer. Gausman wasnt getting much more then that, but Gray might have.
Also I know for effect its fun to call scherzer 38, but he is 37 and will be for like 2/3s of next season. Im also more interested in what he did the last few years, then i am in his age.
with Scherzer's age is because the Mets young pitchers the past 5 or so years (Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Matz, even guys like Szapucki, Matt Allan, etc.) have all been injured (most TJS) and missed significant time.
so, age buys you nothing other than youth.
now get it done. and if it falls through at least I'm confident the Mets didn't half-ass it purely for optics like they would have under the prior regime.
I’m mean obviously he could move or have multiple residences. But having lived in CA for over a decade, it’s not a place that generally would appeal to a guy who was raised in Missouri and moved to Florida
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
I’m mean obviously he could move or have multiple residences. But having lived in CA for over a decade, it’s not a place that generally would appeal to a guy who was raised in Missouri and moved to Florida
Yeah, it makes sense. He lives probably about an hour from the spring training stadium in St. Lucie, maybe a little less.
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Does Boras have any hard feelings from the Rocker mess?
lived near me in the DC area for the time he was with the Nats - sick house (unsurprisingly) overlooking the Potomac. Doesn't seem like a guy tied to the LA lifestyle.
I love this for the Mets. Might as well go big and go for upside right now. Hopefully in parallel, we'll be investing in the farm and front office to build something sustainable. If we get Scherzer, there's at least a reasonable scenario that this team can be good and be dangerous in playoffs. Love that.
to be Mets fans. We are def an assume the worst bunch, haha. Im not saying im feeling good or anything, ha. But i mean there is also tweets like this:
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1h
One rival exec last night saw nothing unusual in delay, saying, “All the Boras side items (in a contract)” take time. Also difficult to imagine Scherzer, a union leader, turning down perceived highest offer. But as Mets learned with Bauer, not over until agreement is reached.
nothing to gain from this falling through for either side
Boras doesn't want to publicly burn the richest owner in the game after offering him a record setting deal.
Cohen doesn't want to lose and get into another battle, this time with the biggest agent.
the news getting out to Gausman/Gray (and every writer on the planet) does imply that someone said this is going to happen.
Martino has a direct line to the FO so clearly that wasn't coming from the Mets side.
it does help give Boras leverage that the backup plans are no longer out there, so if I were betting he was the one putting it out there that they are finalizing a deal with the Mets.
so fingers crossed this gets done today, perhaps with some final asks from Boras now that he has the Mets over a barrel.
if not there are other ways to spend the $40m. Carlos Rodon and Sonny Gray would be my top fallback plan at this point.
Rodon isn't getting more play...i know he is a risk but when healthy he might be the most dominant pitcher available
I'm more shocked it's crickets on Stroman. A few of the lists had him as the top SP available on the same level as Gausman but that doesn't seem to be the case.
I think he seems like a good fit for the Angels, hopefully after they miss out on Scherzer.
to set at this point. Last year's OD roster had 5 bench players (2 if, 2 of, 1 c) in addition to the 8 regulars and 8 BP arms in addition to the 5 SP.
at the moment the 8 regulars are pretty clear. Marte, Nimmo, Canha, Escobar, Lindor, Mcneil, Alonso, McCann.
3 of the bench players are likely Guillorme, Plummer, Nido.
DH is likely 2 of Cano/JDD/Smith - of which Smith seems like the best trade bait.
on the P side JDG, Carrasco, Walker are 3/5 starters.
in the BP you would think Diaz, May, Lugo, Castro are 4/8. Gsellman, Drew Smith and SRF will need to earn their spots since all 3 still have options (per spotrac). I would guess at least 2 of them are back.
So net-net the every day players look pretty settled barring some trades.
But probably room for 2 SP and 2 RP.
plan A is rightfully Scherzer, but if that doesn't happen 40m-50m for those 4 P spots should still get some solid players.
though I'd love to see him make the ML roster. He has the pedigree as a 1st round pick, and seems to have some all-around talent, with a breakout year last year. That said, he's going to have to earn it this spring.
actually scouted Plummer as an amateur and said at the time he put "first round money" on him, thinks he's a potential big leaguer but not with "impact" potential.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
2h
There is expected to be a frenzy of moves today. In words of 1 executive today will be “bananas.” Becuase physicals and contract language needs to be finalized b4 potential lockout midnight Wed into Thurs, today is seen as close to a deadline to finalize deals.
though I'd love to see him make the ML roster. He has the pedigree as a 1st round pick, and seems to have some all-around talent, with a breakout year last year. That said, he's going to have to earn it this spring.
that's true but they gave him a ML deal and he was supposedly the best minor league FA, so I assume they are going to give him every chance to win that job. He can play all 3 positions and unlike Lee I don't think they can just send him down without someone claiming him. He's the 9th best prospect in their system now at a position they don't have a lot of depth and I think I read he would have been close to St Louis' top 10 too, so he may be a legitimate prospect worth hanging on to even if he doesn't have a great spring.
It's obviously convenient that all 3 starting OF can play CF if necessary, but it would probably be better to have a 4th OF capable of that too vs. a LF only like Dom (or JDD).
gets guaranteed money, that's the only difference. He can be sent down. He only has to be exposed to waivers if removed from the 40 man (like any other player).
Has a good TJS recovery and can get back for a bit in 22 and be an asset for 23. He looked like he was figuring it out in his last 4 starts prior to TJS.
was sent down to Syracuse. Maybe I'm not understanding your question? He pitched in AAA for Syracuse and then was removed from the 40 man/DFA'ed to make room, then the Padres claimed him.
Prior to the game, the club activated Pete Alonso and Kevin Pillar from the 10-Day IL, and Seth Lugo from the 60-Day IL. The club also picked up the contract of outfielder Mason Williams.
To make room on the roster, the team DFA’ed Cameron Maybin and Sam McWilliams, and optioned Khalil Lee, Patrick Mazeika, and Sean Reid-Foley to Triple-A.
Major league deal only means you are on the 40 man and paid as a big leaguer. It doesn't dictate you're on the 25 man roster.
No, I'm not suggesting @mets
sign Ollie. That being said, quite the career MLB debut in 2002! at 20, still pitching professionally (in Mexico) in 2021 24 innings 13.1 K/9, 0.87 whip, 2.63 era
was sent down to Syracuse. Maybe I'm not understanding your question? He pitched in AAA for Syracuse and then was removed from the 40 man/DFA'ed to make room, then the Padres claimed him.
I wasn't sure which transactions triggered waivers. I assumed he had to hit waivers when he wasn't on the 26 man but it sounds like it was only when he was removed from the 40 man (and wasn't subject to waivers when he was initially sent to AAA, only when they removed from the 40).
projects Scherzer as the #7 SP in baseball in 2022.
Rodon at 10. Wheeler at 4. Still burns my ass. Diaz I could see the logic to, though I didn't like it. Letting Wheeler go (and to a division rival), and then trading two pitching prospects for Stroman, and paying him similarly is something I will never understand.
is wherever Scherzer signs, the contract will include opt-outs, potentially as early as year 1.
seems like they agreed on parameters and now it's just figuring out structure of the deal. good news. whatever the structure is great for mets even an opt out at year 1. in a worst case scenario if the team tanks and it's obvious he's gonna opt out they can trade him at deadline (though I assume he will also get some kind of NTC so he has control on destination).
was sent down to Syracuse. Maybe I'm not understanding your question? He pitched in AAA for Syracuse and then was removed from the 40 man/DFA'ed to make room, then the Padres claimed him.
I wasn't sure which transactions triggered waivers. I assumed he had to hit waivers when he wasn't on the 26 man but it sounds like it was only when he was removed from the 40 man (and wasn't subject to waivers when he was initially sent to AAA, only when they removed from the 40).
He signed a major league deal, didn't make the team and pitched for Syracuse. Again, major league deal only refers to 40 man spot and how you're paid (guaranteed, even in the minors). If anything he'd be even LESS appealing if the rules dictated he had to be on the 26 man roster all season vs. a standard minor league FA on a minor league deal. He has 3 options left and that's the value.
is wherever Scherzer signs, the contract will include opt-outs, potentially as early as year 1.
seems like they agreed on parameters and now it's just figuring out structure of the deal. good news. whatever the structure is great for mets even an opt out at year 1. in a worst case scenario if the team tanks and it's obvious he's gonna opt out they can trade him at deadline (though I assume he will also get some kind of NTC so he has control on destination).
Guarantee he's getting a no-trade. He was vehement about his previous destination and ring chasing.
projects Scherzer as the #7 SP in baseball in 2022.
Rodon at 10. Wheeler at 4. Still burns my ass. Diaz I could see the logic to, though I didn't like it. Letting Wheeler go (and to a division rival), and then trading two pitching prospects for Stroman, and paying him similarly is something I will never understand.
penny wise pound foolish.
though I say this as someone who 100% would have resigned Wheeler, there is a little historical revisionism because at the time he was viewed as risky. I remember Yankee fans 100% preferring to trade for Stroman at the 2019 deadline because they felt Wheeler was overrated. The Cardinals supposedly turned down trading Bader for him.
the mets mistake was not extending him in the 2 spring trainings when he said he was open to extending. they likely could have gotten him below what he ended up signing for, which exceeded the pre-market projections.
FG projected 3x15m for Rodon. MLBTR projected 1x25m.
So far MLBTR has been pretty dead on but for the Mets I would think the 3 year would be preferable. that's the type of risk they can afford to take and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Just the opposite - Theory is/was Boras wants the big payday and Max needs a push
man isn't it awesome to be able to spend away mistakes?
last year they blew a little over 1m in draft bonus pool money bc of the kumar fiasco.
this year they are almost certain to be penalized 10 slots in the draft with the way they are spending on FA (which will cost them another $1m).
but by losing Conforto/Syndergaard they are going to gain about those same amounts in pool $ associated with the comp picks.
and by spending big $ on free agents not tied to QO they are backfilling (and possibly upgrading) on the field at the same time.
that is the LAD model in action. Leverage cash as a resource > amateur talent resources.
FG projected 3x15m for Rodon. MLBTR projected 1x25m.
So far MLBTR has been pretty dead on but for the Mets I would think the 3 year would be preferable. that's the type of risk they can afford to take and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.
I really like the idea of giving Rodon more guaranteed money but lower AAV. Both sides assuming the risk. 3 years 45ish seems like a good move for both sides. Maybe a opt out after 2.
If you want to be super duper greedy... Scherzer/Rodon/Kikuchi would be nice. deGrom/Scherzer/Rodon/Walker/Kikuchi/Carrasco 6 man rotation. Megill/Peterson as depth
I really like the idea of giving Rodon more guaranteed money but lower AAV. Both sides assuming the risk. 3 years 45ish seems like a good move for both sides. Maybe a opt out after 2.
100% agree. Just like Walker last year it was in the Mets favor to get multiple years at a favorable rate vs. 1 year prove it.
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Just the opposite - Theory is/was Boras wants the big payday and Max needs a push
I see. Makes more sense, but again Scherzer has earned around a quarter of a billion dollars, taking less to go to a place he is more comfortable with wouldn't look foolish IMO, it would look like he's principled (depending on his reasons for where he selects).
In many eyes I think taking less for a better fit (or preferred spot) would make him look better not worse as opposed to simply taking the most money.
Has made 32, 9 (2020) and 29 starts. He stunk as a "rookie" but 4.31 FIP over his last 38 starts, 5.4 innings per start, 9.3 K/9. Steamer projects 4.08 FIP. Give me 30 starts, 4.08 FIP from a 30/31 year old lefty (who COULD still have a next level with a new PC)...that's valuable.
and wanting it tied to any trade Scherzer approved (he was 10/5). He's a leader in the PA so the chance to set a new record for AAV is a big deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
RE: PJ last year in June Boras made public comments re: extension
and wanting it tied to any trade Scherzer approved (he was 10/5). He's a leader in the PA so the chance to set a new record for AAV is a big deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
Eric,
He also said no to going to the Yankees so it wasn't just interdivisional. It's being reported the Dodgers have yet to exceed 2 years. He's 38 in July. 2 years 80ish vs. 3 years 120ish (with him reportedly looking for 4) is a massive, massive difference. This isn't a 27 year old who is likely to make it back. When this contract is finished he's LIKELY done, and at the very least VERY unlikely to make back the money "left" on the deal.
RE: PJ last year in June Boras made public comments re: extension
and wanting it tied to any trade Scherzer approved (he was 10/5). He's a leader in the PA so the chance to set a new record for AAV is a big deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
and wanting it tied to any trade Scherzer approved (he was 10/5). He's a leader in the PA so the chance to set a new record for AAV is a big deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
Scherzer is a big-time outspoken union guy so the AAV is likely a big deal (we don't know what the Dodgers are offering) so it's possible they aren't even offering 2 for 86 (which would be the 43 million the Mets reportedly are). Overall money is obviously "important" to anyone but the AAV is something both Boras/Scherzer likely feel is a key component here.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
4m
Source: Mets are close to a deal for Max Scherzer.
192Reply
246Retweet
1kLike
More options
martinonyc's avatar
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Mets were waiting overnight, talks resumed a little more than an hour ago, now an agreement is near.
I personally don't disagree just pointing out he hasn't ever signaled
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
to be making the decision that way. Kershaw as a counter example I'm sure has been quoted numerous times saying he wants to be an LAD for life. Bauer was known to prefer going back to LA and his bizarre agent went to UCLA with him.
Scherzer has always seemed a little less sentimental (like most big Boras clients). Conforto was kind of the same way - im sure if we looked at whatever the Mets offered him in extension talks it would look more than fair and he said numerous times he wanted to stay here. But you don't hire Boras to settle for fair you hire him if you want to get top of market.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Max Scherzer and the Mets are finalizing $130M, 3-year deal. Minor details to go only.
Great news! My 9 year-old daughter got me some Mets socks for my recent birthday. I wore them today and told her if they signed the pitcher they were after, they would be my lucky Mets socks
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
38s
The Mets and Max Scherzer are "working on details" for a three-year, $130 million deal, though it's not quite done yet, per source. @JonHeyman
was on it.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
12s
Max Scherzer is nearing a 3-year, $130 million deal with the #Mets that will be, on an annual basis, the largest in @MLB
history, source confirms. @MLBNetwork
with Scherzer the projected CBT payroll is now above $270m
like to see them add enough SP to use a 6 man rotation. deGrom/Walker have durability concerns and Scherzer is 38 (not even mentioning Carrasco having both concerns).
gotta think the momentum following those deals wasn't totally coincidental. They changed the whole Mets narrative and put them front and center as a team adding respected players and looking to compete. Without those moves im not so sure all the conversations that happened between Scherzer and Cohen this weekend take place.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
4m
Max Scherzer is nearing a 3-year, $130 million deal with the #Mets that will be, on an annual basis, the largest in @MLB
history, source confirms. @MLBNetwork
I think the meds are done except for a lefty reliever. They already have a lot of guys for the rotation
Highly doubt they are "done" and completely disagree on the rotation even Eppler said they needed multiple SP.
deGrom/Scherzer/Walker/Carrasco/Megill/Peterson is the entirety of the SP depth. They essentially replaced Stroman with Scherzer (obviously a major move) but far from enough.
projects 3 Mets SP to be league average or better by fWAR. deGrom/Scherzer/Carrasco. They will need more SP (and I assume they will add them, maybe via trade). Would love to package Dom for Mahle.
like to see them add enough SP to use a 6 man rotation. deGrom/Walker have durability concerns and Scherzer is 38 (not even mentioning Carrasco having both concerns).
Agreed. Rich Hill makes sense as a 6th guy / swing arm to the BP to compete with Peterson / Megill / Williams if any of the 3 pitches well enough to earn a regular slot.
That would leave 1 more spot available in the top 5 and start them 9 deep in total. Would give them a ton of flexibility to skip guys on occasion.
Hopefully 1 positive from last year is that they function as the most conservative organization in the sport in terms of rehab timelines. Very little downside to erroring on the side of more rest and smaller pitch counts until Aug/Sept/Oct.
I think the meds are done except for a lefty reliever. They already have a lot of guys for the rotation
Highly doubt they are "done" and completely disagree on the rotation even Eppler said they needed multiple SP.
deGrom/Scherzer/Walker/Carrasco/Megill/Peterson is the entirety of the SP depth. They essentially replaced Stroman with Scherzer (obviously a major move) but far from enough.
I'd agree the major moves are likely over now (like Baez).
But I expect 1 or 2 multi-year deals for relievers.
and possibly 1 more multi-year deal for a SP (like Rodon - which seems like it's just too much upside to ignore).
At minimum they will likely add 2 SP on 1 year deals along with a couple veteran relievers.
none of that needs to happen before the lockout though it wouldn't shock me if they are aggressive if there's a specific reliever they like.
As Eric said, a low cost lefty like Rich Hill makes sense
flat out said they were looking to add 2 or even 3 SP. As great as Scherzer is, that tells you they thought they needed to fill 400-500 innings, Scherzer alone isn't changing that math.
"New York Mets GM Billy Eppler told SNY in an exclusive interview that he plans to add at least two to three pitchers this offseason to fill some holes in the pitching staff."
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
Scherzer has replaced Stroman. If I told you before the end of the season Stroman and Syndergaard were gone and they brought in Scherzer, most would agree that's an awesome addition but they needed more. It's still the case. They need another 25+ start SP if not 2.
could be a trade (like you said, Dom could be a chip)
could be Rodon on a team friendly multi-year
could be Greinke on a 1 year
could be Bundy on a 1 year
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
I am kind of with you... sign Baez and you can trade McNeil for another SP...
and is he really too risky for us. Are we willing to go with his upside knowing that we could end up having to user the peterson/megills of the world more then we want?
RE: agree dan - im betting Hill is the #3 and the #2 could be anyone
could be a trade (like you said, Dom could be a chip)
could be Rodon on a team friendly multi-year
could be Greinke on a 1 year
could be Bundy on a 1 year
Any of those could be good options.
Dom (plus) for Mahle and sign a guy like Hill would be ideal. Then you don't have to count on the Peterson's of the world and they are legit depth.
Hey I hope I’m wrong and they get Rodon or someone else
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
Baez is risky for 2 reasons:
1. $/term
2. I think McNeil might be the better player and he'd almost have to get traded (it's close but I prefer McNeil's elite contact to Baez all or nothing approach)
unless you can get something very good for McNeil, I think I'd be conservative on how far I'd be willing to lock in with Baez.
if you can get him closer to the 4x20m projections, im interested. if it's anywhere close to Semien money Im passing.
Bundy on a 1 year is tempting. 4 pitch mix. His avg. velocity this year was actually 1 mph higher than 2020 when he had a really good year despite averaging 90mph on his FB. Likely a very low cost given his bad 2021.
depending on what their ideas are with Cano, it wouldn't be the worst thing to keep both Dom + JDD as bench depth and to give Alonso some days not in the field.
Bundy on a 1 year is tempting. 4 pitch mix. His avg. velocity this year was actually 1 mph higher than 2020 when he had a really good year despite averaging 90mph on his FB. Likely a very low cost given his bad 2021.
depending on what their ideas are with Cano, it wouldn't be the worst thing to keep both Dom + JDD as bench depth and to give Alonso some days not in the field.
Bundy's savant page is horrifying. I think I'd only take him as the "Rich Hill" depth arm. It's scary bad.
I mean it doesn't get much uglier than this Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
I mean it doesn't get much uglier than this Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
Season ended with a shoulder issue and fangraphs projects a 4.61 FIP. If he's the "Rich Hill" sure, but not as the 2nd best SP they add.
I mean it doesn't get much uglier than this Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
My point is more, the numbers across the board say he was scary bad so it's not like you can say "well he's intriguing because" other than saying he was very good during the abbreviated season. I'd much prefer a Cobb type where the stuff+ implies he could be a steal. Link - ( New Window )
Janes confirmed Scherzer did reject coming to NY at the deadline but that was due to (non arm related) aches and pains and the NY weather. The money obviously was enough to make him "change his mind".
to gausman did that mean we would have pulled the offer to scherzer? I doubt it, so could that have meant we were willing to sign both. If so then we prolly are willing to spend a descent amount more.
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
3m
"The Mets’ 2022 payroll stands at $268 million, and Cohen is not done spending, can’t be done spending, with additional pitching holes to fill and the overall depth still questionable."
serious contenders for Scherzer with the Wilpons. At best they feign interest to check a box or allow themselves to be used publicly by an agent to bump up the offers, but never make a serious offer
With a free spending owner, Scherzer becomes a possibility.
The Mets are not done obviously, but I feel a whole lot better about 2022 now than I did a week ago.
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
against Walker but he finished with a 4.57 FIP (47/55 SP who threw at least 150 innings), Carrasco was obviously injured and awful and Megill/Peterson are ?? They need to add more SP even if the top 2 are incredible. This isn't the playoffs, it's a fully 162 game season. deGrom misses a month, is anybody really comfortable with Scherzer/Walker/Carrasco/Megill/Peterson in a pennant race? I know I'm not. Good to see the Mets aren't either.
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
I think Stroman is gone. He's been lashing out (including at the Mets). No clue where they go with this but ideally at least 1 "legit" SP and 1 "Rich Hill type". Would love Rodon, I like Cobb a lot, I like Mahle a ton, there are options. As is the rotation needs help.
a fair counter point from rosenthal on the Scherzer signing
In the past four days, Cohen has committed $254.5 million to four free agents 33 or older — Scherzer, infielder Eduardo Escobar and outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The Mets’ 2022 payroll stands at $268 million, and Cohen is not done spending, can’t be done spending, with additional pitching holes to fill and the overall depth still questionable. For what it’s worth, the team also remains without a manager and coaches to bring all their disparate pieces together, and the pickings will be relatively slim by the time new general manager Billy Eppler gets around to hiring after the expected start of the lockout.
Perhaps too much is made of age: The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season with the oldest offense in the majors (average age: 30.6) and fifth-oldest pitching staff (average age: 29.7). But many in the industry wonder if the Giants can do it again after so many of their older hitters exceeded expectations, including catcher Buster Posey, who retired. The Giants’ culture and infrastructure also was superior to the Mets, though both can change relatively quickly depending upon personnel.
Some quick math:
current starting lineup avg. age = 29.5 (counted both Dom/JDD as DHs)
current starting rotation avg. age = 32.2 (counted Megill or Peterson as #5, both same age)
current 8 man BP avg. age = 28
So bottomline if they do end up trading a McNeil or Dom, they would be wise to do so for a SP in their 20's with a healthy track record. The average age of the current top 3 starters right now is clearly not ideal.
I'm less concerned with the starting lineup since Alonso is 26, Lindor is 28, Nimmo is 28, McNeil is 29, Dom is 26, and Vientos/Baty are closing in on the big leagues at positions occupied by 2 of the 33 year olds.
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
I think Stroman is gone. He's been lashing out (including at the Mets). No clue where they go with this but ideally at least 1 "legit" SP and 1 "Rich Hill type". Would love Rodon, I like Cobb a lot, I like Mahle a ton, there are options. As is the rotation needs help.
Thanks, Dan. I think Stroman may be gone also, and I also read about his lashing out.
It's always a pleasure to read your level headed, thoughtful messages.
RE: a fair counter point from rosenthal on the Scherzer signing
In the past four days, Cohen has committed $254.5 million to four free agents 33 or older — Scherzer, infielder Eduardo Escobar and outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The Mets’ 2022 payroll stands at $268 million, and Cohen is not done spending, can’t be done spending, with additional pitching holes to fill and the overall depth still questionable. For what it’s worth, the team also remains without a manager and coaches to bring all their disparate pieces together, and the pickings will be relatively slim by the time new general manager Billy Eppler gets around to hiring after the expected start of the lockout.
Perhaps too much is made of age: The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season with the oldest offense in the majors (average age: 30.6) and fifth-oldest pitching staff (average age: 29.7). But many in the industry wonder if the Giants can do it again after so many of their older hitters exceeded expectations, including catcher Buster Posey, who retired. The Giants’ culture and infrastructure also was superior to the Mets, though both can change relatively quickly depending upon personnel.
Some quick math:
current starting lineup avg. age = 29.5 (counted both Dom/JDD as DHs)
current starting rotation avg. age = 32.2 (counted Megill or Peterson as #5, both same age)
current 8 man BP avg. age = 28
So bottomline if they do end up trading a McNeil or Dom, they would be wise to do so for a SP in their 20's with a healthy track record. The average age of the current top 3 starters right now is clearly not ideal.
I'm less concerned with the starting lineup since Alonso is 26, Lindor is 28, Nimmo is 28, McNeil is 29, Dom is 26, and Vientos/Baty are closing in on the big leagues at positions occupied by 2 of the 33 year olds. Rosenthal: By adding Max Scherzer, the Mets are acting like a New York team should. But that’s no guarantee of success - ( New Window )
Eric, that's been my thinking also, that they need to add more, and younger pitching now.
Martino says Mets/Baez are still talking but apart on price
says Mets will add depth in the rotation and may look to trade market, doesn't see them in on Rodon.
mentioned Manaea as a possible target if they trade 1 of JDD/Dom/McNeil since Oakland may be looking to add cheaper MLB contributors vs. prospects. Says Oakland hasn't really engaged on most trade talks yet.
Manaea due to make $10m this year and then a FA after the year. So does seem like someone they might be able to pick up cheapish. Statcast doesn't look as great as his topline #s.
Martino says Mets/Baez are still talking but apart on price
says they will add depth in the rotation and may look to trade market, doesn't see them in on Rodon.
mentioned Manaea as a possible target if they trade 1 of JDD/Dom/McNeil since Oakland may be looking to add cheaper MLB contributors vs. prospects. Manaea has 1 year left at $10m. Don't think I'd give up Dom or McNeil for 1 year of anyone but almost def a yes for JDD.
Although I agree with Dan, and some others, that Stroman is probably gone, and his recent acting out has been irritating; still, I have some thoughts re his potential usefulness as a 3rd starter.
Do any of you have any positive thoughts about retaining him as a 3rd starter, where he would be in a less visible role?
"MMO‘s Michael Mayer said the Mets are still interested in signing another pitcher, a reliever and “haven’t ruled out signing another position player.” Link - ( New Window )
he seems all about himself. he opted out last minute in 2020 after talking a big game. side swiped Syndergaard after he signed his deal. took shots at the FO. fights with reporters/fans constantly on twitter. and quite frankly hasn't quite come up big at any point in his 1.5 years pitching here. In 2019 he could have helped them surge to the playoffs but he was meh (3.77 era/4.15 fip in 11 starts as a met, missed playoffs by a few games). Certainly didn't act like a stopper this past august when they needed one (team was 3-3 in games he started, he had a 3.6 era).
the fact that both his former clubs didn't prioritize him says something.
he seems all about himself. he opted out last minute in 2020 after talking a big game. side swiped Syndergaard after he signed his deal. took shots at the FO. fights with reporters/fans constantly on twitter. and quite frankly hasn't quite come up big at any point in his 1.5 years pitching here. In 2019 he could have helped them surge to the playoffs but he was meh (3.77 era/4.15 fip in 11 starts as a met, missed playoffs by a few games). Certainly didn't act like a stopper this past august when they needed one (team was 3-3 in games he started, he had a 3.6 era).
the fact that both his former clubs didn't prioritize him says something.
Thanks, Eric. Like Dan, you're another poster whose insights I find credible and valuable.
Add-in the constant general assholeishness on Twitter and I’m fine with moving on. Would really like to add Rodon or maybe trade for a Mahle or Bassit type. Pass on Manaea. I think he’s toast.
figuring out which SP to pursue is why you hire 30+ analytics guys
also helps figuring out which guys toggling between the minors may have more than meets the eye. and which RP is ready to be the next Loup.
that's where they need to focus their resources right now.
and obviously also in the amateur ranks to fill the pipeline with high upside arms who are ready to slot in 2-3-4 years down the road.
if a team is willing to make a stud pitcher available for McNeil, that's pretty much the only way I'd trade him. And if that happens then maybe you consider Bryant or Baez if their markets don't materialize. But no need to be urgent about either one right now. Let the market come to them.
Sanchez would be a bizarre fit, I think Puma is talking out of his ass.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I think it's gonna be Showalter but outside shot for Ausmus too. Eppler had a front row seat with Ausmus so it would be an informed hire. The rumors were he didn't want to fire Ausmus but then preferred Showalter to Maddon. Either seems like a competent selection.
in the fold, does it change anyone's interest in Robbie Ray?
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
not for me. way outpitched his peripherals and still 1 year from a 6 era and -fwar.
if he wasn't on a QO maybe, but at the expense of 3-4m in draft pool? Nope. That 3m is basically another Matt Allan - which is a more desperate need for the organization than the difference between Ray and Rodon.
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
but is reported to be non-tendered by the Tigers is Matthew Boyd. He is injured and out through June. If I'm the Mets I certainly acquire about him. Price could be right and could do a similar deal to Walker, at maybe 2 years, $16 million. He could eat some innings at the back of the rotation and provide depth, or be the 6th man if they do a 6 man rotation.
DMM and Eric, but I'm just thinking about going all in.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I guess the difference is, I don't see Ray as a major upgrade over some of the available names. If you told me Rodon outpitches Ray in 2022 I wouldn't be shocked. Alex Cobb 2.92 FIP in 2021 over 18 starts or even trade options. If Ray were a sure thing then I'd agree but 3.69 FIP and awful as recently as 2020, I don't think that's worth the risk.
I would like to see the Mets keep the 2 1st round picks
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Should the Mets keep their two 1sts, it will be interesting where they go there. I like the approach lately the Mets have had with largely position players in the 1st and SP with other high picks. Easier to project on the whole, with less injury issues. Supplement SP with FAs.
That's how the Astros and Cubs were largely built. There are exceptions, of course. ie, an established big game college SP in Rocker, until that blew up
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
awful 2020 (and let's face it quite a few players had awful 2020's), was more the blip in his career than his CY Young in 2021 IMO.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
PJ,
I have to disagree there. Robbie Ray 2018 0.9 fWAR 4.31 FIP, 2019 4.29 FIP. Career 4.04 FIP. From 2018-2019 he was "solid but average" and 2020 he was awful. 2018+2019 only 3 SP that threw at least 200 innings walked more batters. Steven Brault, Aaron Sanchez and Liriano. His 2018+2019 combined FIP was 4.30. He carries significant risk. I also have to wonder why Toronto hasn't been more aggressive in trying to keep a guy they "fixed".
KDavies I agree and in particular I think Kelenic/Baty types are ideal
because they both went under slot. PCA went for exactly slot. I wouldn't fix what isn't broken and with the 2 firsts I think I'd try to go in that direction with position players, ideally under slot.
Save that money to then go above slot on 2 or 3 Matt Allan/JT Ginn types with the 2nd round and comp picks.
they can go underslot with 1 or 2 of those also and try to get 1 of the top senior signs.
issue in the Mets system is clearly pitching. Can't even really count Matt Allan. He may see some innings at the end of this year but TJ perfect. Ginn is a #4 type, Butto a back end type, I like Hamel quite a bit but I'm guessing the Mets have the "worst" SP prospects in baseball overall and that needs to be addressed.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
That would be crazy if he signed with Texas with everyone else they are going after.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
way too early to really judge but early guesstimates have this being a completely loaded draft. I'm partial to OF Chase DeLauter, an absolute specimen who can really hit. 6'5 245 currently a CF. He also pitches (won't be at the next level), plus speed. A real monster. I'm not worrying about "need" at the moment.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Yup and quite frankly unless I'm missing someone, they haven't even been rumored "in" on any QO guys.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Correct. So far they've done the hole filling part of the offseason as well as could be expected. Got best SP and best CF availability as well as 2 other position flexible value deals. All on reasonably termed deals.
Now it's time to value hunt and find some diamonds in the rough. The lockout break is coming at exactly the right time to get go heavy on staffing/scouting.
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
Exactly. the last 4 first rounds were Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA. Signing Ray is giving up $3-4m and a prospect along those lines.
If we didn't like losing PCA at the deadline that's exactly what you stand to lose by signing Ray instead of Rodon. And unlike the deadline there is a simple and equally effective alternative. there were no comparable free agents to baez at the deadline. there are comparable free agents who don't cost the QO.
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
in fairness, that was an especially moronic trade (even at the time it was viewed as such). A decent GM likely turns the Kelenic package into a trade for a star/superstar.
add in Harvey, Nimmo, Dom, Conforto. Going beyond the micro-analysis of any singular player, on a macro level, the Mets need an infusion of talent in the minor league system. At this point FAs are fine. But unless you want to be facing luxury tax penalties every year, they need to get some cost-controlled talent.
Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, hopefully Allen down the line, Ginn and some of the SP they draft last year are a decent start, but this draft could be huge in setting themselves up for some cost controlled talent in the next 3 years or so. Plummer is a top 10 prospect in the system.
it seems a lot of you fans prefer to draft the player then trade them for a proven veteran (even as a rental) than to sign a player that prevents you from drafting a player in the first place.
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Peterson is 26 and steamer projects him to have the almost the same ERA/FIP as Ray next year, obviously at a fraction of the cost.
Kelenic is 22 and was a top 10 prospect in baseball. Giving him up was moronic even though it brought back "an all star" and has no relation to the value of him as a draft pick. In a bad debut he still had 24 xbh in the 2nd half last year.
Baty is a consensus top 50.
PCA was a fringe top 100 but who knows because he has barely debuted and had a major injury. He still had enough value to bring back a player likely to sign for more than Ray will in at the deadline.
Giving up first round picks when there's an alternative not to is a bizarre strategy, especially after bemoaning giving up PCA for the last several months.
will see what they give up but love the fit for the Marlins
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
2m
Marlins close to acquiring catcher Jacob Stallings from Pirates, pending a medical review, sources tell @TheAthletic
.
and would have rather gotten Kimbrel in FA. I also don't know many fans who would have traded PCA for a rental when they were not really a playoff team, if they were going in knowing it was a rental. If it's a case of we signed Scherzer, so no money for Baez, that's another thing. The Mets couldn't have banked on being able to get a SP like Scherzer.
I wouldn't have been heartbroken if they lost the 14th pick for Ray, but there are ways to improve the rotation now without giving up picks.
it seems a lot of you fans prefer to draft the player then trade them for a proven veteran (even as a rental) than to sign a player that prevents you from drafting a player in the first place.
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
Players values aren't set in stone the day they are drafted.
Kelenic's value consistently increased and we all wanted to keep him.
PCA had a major injury and as other guys in the system had huge years he was the least bad option to trade.
I personally never want to trade prospects or give up the finite assets each team gets to find them (draft picks and pool $). I would pretty much never do it in the offseason.
the only time I would do it is at the deadline because that's when a season depends on a move made or not made - like Cespedes. They don't all work out but recently we've seen teams literally win or not win the WS thanks to deadline moves. We don't face the Royals without Cespedes and the Royals don't beat us without Zobrist. The Braves and Nats don't get their rings without deadline pickups. The Dodgers weren't going anywhere without Scherzer last year. Houston doesn't win without Verlander.
I'm personally only giving up top 50-100 prospects for a guy that has a legitimate chance to be an MVP down the stretch and be the difference between missing/making the playoffs. Or maybe a deal like Lindor last year where you are getting a face of the franchise type at a somewhat discounted rate bc of their impending FA status.
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Seager is a fantastic player. Likely moves to 3b soonish but man can he hit.
I would think their current / intermediate plan is for Seager to play short with Semien at second since they committed $500mm to the two of them.
Sounds about right. He's still going to be an elite player at 3b so it's not as if they signed a DH.
in for a penny in for a pound I guess. Seager/Semien up the middle is on balance probably a positive defensively, and if Seager can be a solid 3b there's not a huge value loss if he does keep trending backwards at SS. He can rake. In a good lineup and in that ballpark it's probably easier to feel confident about Semien's offense too.
Your Home Timeline
Show 96 Tweets
Kevin Goldstein
@Kevin_Goldstein
·
3m
People coming at me saying the state tax thing really doesn't matter because you pay taxes in the state where the game is being played. Rangers play 81 home games, 9 in Houston, 9 in Seattle and 3 in Tampa. That's 102 games, nearly two-thirds with zero tax status. It matters.
salaries are going up and players are racing to get deals done now. the same person who told me scherzer wasn't a lock back to LAD told me the CBA negotiations this time around are much simpler than the negotiations in April 2020 because both sides are pretty much ok with most of the status quo. Said there are "basically just 2 things to work out" and while it won't get done until they are closer to the real deadlines nobody expects any sort of interruption to the season.
I didn't really believe that but seeing the $ fly this week makes me think maybe that's right.
sign minor leaguer Nate Fisher. 26 in May, lefty RP Link - ( New Window )
nothing really stands out. 11 walks/47 k's in 37 innings is decent. steamer projection is basically JAG. but I guess the world needs some lefty JAGs too.
about same age and same contract would you take Lindor or Seager?
assuming you had the choice right now. I think I'd go Seager even expecting the move to 3b. The offense is just too good and maybe this is false hope but I think he could hit even more in the future while i'm less certain Lindor will hit 30 homers again. Really really close though. If lindor had a normal year last year he'd probably be the hands down choice. Steamer projects them almost dead even next year.
RE: about same age and same contract would you take Lindor or Seager?
assuming you had the choice right now. I think I'd go Seager even expecting the move to 3b. The offense is just too good and maybe this is false hope but I think he could hit even more in the future while i'm less certain Lindor will hit 30 homers again. Really really close though. If lindor had a normal year last year he'd probably be the hands down choice. Steamer projects them almost dead even next year.
I’d take Correa over both tbh. He looks like he’s peaking now and may even have a next level he can reach
Not saying I wouldn’t choose him too, just a little trickier to evaluate. MLBTR had him 15m above Seaver but also had Seager 20m lower than he got, so I don’t think it’s crazy Correa beats his projection by a lot more than that.
Not saying I wouldn’t choose him too, just a little trickier to evaluate. MLBTR had him 15m above Seaver but also had Seager 20m lower than he got, so I don’t think it’s crazy Correa beats his projection by a lot more than that.
I guess it depends how much bigger. If we are talking 360 vs. 341 then I say "who cares"? If he's getting 450 million or something then yeah I guess it's a discussion. He just looks to be hitting his prime now, he's a special pure athlete too which helps (obviously).
likely lost or will lose Syndergaard, Stroman, Conforto, Baez, and lesser pieces and before December (meaning the roster is still being built) they are already a better team than in 2021 (assuming health of course).
is guys like Degrom come around once in a generation and you don't want to waste their prime
Mets won with both Seaver and Godden, their other two greats. You have to surround Degrom with the talent capable of winning a championship, even if it means sacrificing the future a bit.
RE: and im almost never giving up a top 10-20 prospect like Alvarez
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
is guys like Degrom come around once in a generation and you don't want to waste their prime
Mets won with both Seaver and Godden, their other two greats. You have to surround Degrom with the talent capable of winning a championship, even if it means sacrificing the future a bit.
100% agree.
ace pitchers are impossible to find. the combo of Harvey + Syndergaard being a star right away in 2015 is why they made the Cespedes deal. JDG to a lesser extent at that point.
they have JDG so why not go for it? worst case it doesn't work and you have potentially valuable trade chips at the deadline.
RE: RE: and im almost never giving up a top 10-20 prospect like Alvarez
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
Wright and Reyes were both good prospects but they seemed better at the time because it had been so long since we'd had any homegrown impact players. Who was the last homegrown all star (as a met) before them? Alfonzo I guess but I don't think he was ever considered a big prospect.
Good for the Mets. I'm not a fan-not a big baseball dude @ all-but I'd like to see them do well for cousins sake. And deGrom is awesome to watch; I've seen him 3 times in person...he is electric. Congrats gents!
RE: RE: and im almost never giving up a top 10-20 prospect like Alvarez
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
I'm a big Alvarez fan, but "way better than Kelenic" is probably some hyperbole.
let's not forget Rosario was the #5 prospect in baseball for a while (I thought I remember him climbing to #3 with some in-season graduations from the ranking lists) and prospect status is just that, prospect status until you play for real.
Kelenic had a rough start, but came on at the end.
I think he's going to be great.
I think Alvarez can be too, but a lot more distance between that happening and how close Kelenic is to confidently make that claim.
I hope you're right, odds are you will be wrong.
the big potential edge Alvarez has on Kelenic is positional value
Kelenic is likely a COF and that sets the bar high for how good he needs to be. Is he Acuna or Soto? Very doubtful. True two way catchers are rarer than aces.
Rosario in hindsight was overrated based on his tools. They are still all there but he hadn't really put them together for an extended period of time. I still think he can reach a didi level but he's never going to be as good as the top guys in the group that debuted right ahead of him (all the guys we talked about earlier Lindor, Seager, Correa, Baez, etc).
really good article on the athletic reacting to scherzer
obviously the mad max persona is one thing, but the ability to reinvent and find a way to win is what this team missed last year. Guys got stuck and just couldn't find a way out.
Obviously the players they've targeted in FA were due to their talent first but it's a nice secondary that all 4 of the players they've added are players who know how to grind out success. Canha was a rule 5 pick 8 picks ahead of Sean Gilmartin. Escobar came up as a SS and reinvented him at a few different positions. Marte overcame adversity off the field nobody should have to go through. And now add in the a HOFer and WS champ who just a few months ago was willing to throw out of the BP to help his team. That is the type of mentality they've missed since the injuries to Harvey/Syndergaard basically left JDG without a true wingman. That is the mentality that had Harvey on the mound in game 5 and Syndergaard throwing at Escobar in the 1 game they won. It's the mentality a certain still FA SP thinks he has but doesn't.
Quote:
Brittany Ghiroli, The Athletic MLB
Credit to the Mets and Steve Cohen for doing what a big-market team with a deep-pocketed owner should: spend. While some may scoff at the years and value of a contract for a 37-year-old, Scherzer isn’t your average 37-year-old. A surefire future Hall of Famer, Scherzer’s meticulous attention to offseason training and his ability to work around injuries — major and minor — is nothing short of legendary on teams he’s been a part of. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, has twice changed his grip in-season and still gone on to dominate. He’s a guy who bristles at the notion that his best years are behind him, and who are we mere mortals to argue otherwise? Players have consistently voted Scherzer as one of the game’s most uncomfortable at-bats. The Mets got a competitive generational talent on Monday and, when you think about Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets rotation isn’t just stacked up top. It’s truly terrifying.
Though I am always a sucker for upside guys like Scott and Nicolas does have potential to remain a starter. Even if he doesn’t develop enough control or secondary offerings what he currently has plays in the bullpen.
When Scherzer consults with the medical staff about any of his injuries, the conversation typically starts with one question from the right-hander: “Will I hurt it more?” If the answer is no, it’s just a matter of tolerating the pain. And it seems no one has a pain tolerance threshold quite like Scherzer, who didn’t go on the injured list until his 10th season, when a neck issue surfaced in August 2017.
Rizzo: That was a very heated, emotional discussion.
Zimmerman: It was always a last resort. He’d try all kinds of stuff up until the morning he pitched.
Martinez: We’d finally convince him (to go on the 10-day IL). And then all of a sudden three days later, he’d come to my office (and say), “I could have been ready.”
What Scherzer has endured while continuing to pitch forms a much longer list. There was the sprained right ring finger the last five weeks of 2016, the season he won his second Cy Young. After an MRI that December revealed a stress fracture, Scherzer altered his fastball grip that spring, putting an extra finger on the baseball. He won the Cy Young Award again.
In 2018, Scherzer dealt with previously unreported thumb pain by again altering his grip.
Rizzo: The thumb, that was legendary stuff.
After every start, Scherzer’s right thumb would be swollen. Given his previous finger issues, the Nationals were skeptical about another grip change. Would he still be Scherzer?
Martinez: We went through it and I told him, if this means he’s going to have to change something else (to his mechanics), we need to do something else.
A week later, Scherzer stormed into the team’s training room and demanded the team’s training staff watch his bullpen workout. He had again figured out a way to compete. Scherzer struck out a career-high 300 hitters in 2018, when he made 33 starts and finished runner-up in Cy Young voting. At one point, Scherzer tallied up his starts over a calendar year. They totaled 33. He said he felt good in three of them.
Quote:
In June 2019, Scherzer bunted a ball back into his face and suffered a broken nose and black eye. He insisted he could pitch the following day. Scherzer got his wish, striking out 10 in the Nationals’ 2-0 win. Afterward he chastised reporters for suggesting his injuries were worrisome.
Four months later, Scherzer woke up the morning of his scheduled start in Game 5 of the World Series and couldn’t move his neck. He needed help getting out of bed and getting dressed. His wife, Erica, who kept him positive, had to drive Scherzer to the field because the pain in his neck and upper trapezius was so debilitating. That night Washington pitched Joe Ross instead. Three days later, in a winner-take-all Game 7, Scherzer got the start and pitched five innings in the Nationals’ World Series win over the Astros.
How much did the injury still bother Scherzer? He won’t say.
Martinez: He’s a tough cat.
Rizzo: What separates him from almost anybody is that he knows his body as well or better than anyone I’ve ever been around. He knows how to fix his own ailments.
The Dodgers are seeing up close how self-aware Scherzer is. He left his first September start because of hamstring soreness, albeit after striking out nine, walking none and giving up three hits in six innings against the Braves. He not only made his next scheduled start, he went eight innings and struck out 13.
Scherzer has been a machine since joining a Dodgers rotation that had been decimated by injuries. He has allowed only five earned runs in his first seven starts, the second of which was shortened by inclement weather. Across 43 innings, he has struck out 63 and has a 1.05 ERA. The Dodgers are 7-0 in those starts and Scherzer, after Monday’s 13-strikeout performance, has again thrust himself into the NL Cy Young Award race.
A lot of fans and "experts" who follow other teams are saying that adding Scherzer to a 75 win team does not make you a contender.
To me, there are three reasons Mets season went south.
1. Mets tried to crash course the hitters into accepting analytics. When you see every guy in the lineup--except for Alonso and Nimmo--hitting below expectations, you have to look for a common denominator. When Conforto explained his poor first half by saying he was thinking too much about such things as where his feet were placed, he basically said without saying it that the organization messed guys up with their "new approach." That explains why so many established hitters all had bad seasons the same year.
2. Lack of pitching depth. Thor and Walker were coming off seasons plagued by injury. Carrasco was treated with chemo for a very serious cancer in 2019. Degrom already had the torn ucl. Almost the entire rotation was a question mark, yet the Mets had no backup plan other than Petersen. They lucked out that Megill came out of nowhere but that was hardly enough. They also lucked out the top guys in the bullpen were healthy all year or it could have been a real disaster.
3. Bad clubhouse: Lindor-McNeil fight, the thumbs down. These were signs that something was not right and once the season turned, the team plummeted because guys were looking to pad their own stats. Rojas made matters worse by playing his favorites. I think that is one reason Mets are saying goodbye to Baez. On the field he thrived but in the clubhouse he was not a good combo with Lindor. I think it is also one of the reasons Mets had a hard time recruiting. It had gotten around baseball that there was a bad environment. I think that is also why Thor left. He heard things from guys on the team.
I think they have addressed 1 and 3. They just need to address 2 by adding pitching depth.
I also hope they keep Dom, McNeil and JD. Use those guys as trade chips at the deadline. Nobody can predict injuries and you need to have pieces you can exchange.
cant blame the mets for not wanting to commit that kind of money after the scherzer deal. Especially when its clear they still need to add some pitching.
the Mets didnt get more then 15 starts from any starter. Thats the main reason we were a 75 win team. Sure the offense contributed but when you lose carrasco for most of the year, have Thor get a setback, lose degrom for the second half, lose backup options like Luchessi/Yamamoto/Peterson for the majority of the year its tough. We did all want more depth but they mets did have a ton of starting pitcher injuries.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
the Mets didnt get more then 15 starts from any starter. Thats the main reason we were a 75 win team. Sure the offense contributed but when you lose carrasco for most of the year, have Thor get a setback, lose degrom for the second half, lose backup options like Luchessi/Yamamoto/Peterson for the majority of the year its tough. We did all want more depth but they mets did have a ton of starting pitcher injuries.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
Lacking of hitting was a big issue, especially in the first half.
Mets were leading the league in staff ERA (along with Dodgers) and were only a few games above .500.
they actually had enough pitching depth once they acquired Hill/Williams to the point that they only needed Williams to start a few games in the 2nd half. The rotation mostly went in turn - Stroman, Carrasco, Walker, Megill, Hill. All 5 of those guys will probably be starters again next year at some point. None of them are Eickoffs.
And they had that depth despite losing Yamamoto, Peterson, and Luchesi for the season.
the issue with the pitching was mismanagement of injuries to the TOR guys.
they let Syndergaard push his rehab too hard and he had a setback
same with Carrasco and his hamstring, then rushing him to big leagues with no rehab
and kind of same of with JDG and all his ailments when he got pulled early in June/July
and they probably needed a better plan to manage Walker's injuries
Altogether it was bad injury luck (probably in part impacted by the short covid year) + bad decision making.
but I don't think depth was the issue. They ended the year with 6 healthy starters plus 5 on DL (Thor/JDG perhaps ready to come off it mattered). 11 is pretty deep.
the Mets didnt get more then 15 starts from any starter. Thats the main reason we were a 75 win team. Sure the offense contributed but when you lose carrasco for most of the year, have Thor get a setback, lose degrom for the second half, lose backup options like Luchessi/Yamamoto/Peterson for the majority of the year its tough. We did all want more depth but they mets did have a ton of starting pitcher injuries.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
Lacking of hitting was a big issue, especially in the first half.
Mets were leading the league in staff ERA (along with Dodgers) and were only a few games above .500.
100% agree. And the big hits they were getting in the first half were often from Peraza, Pillar, Villar, etc.
Dom, Conforto, McNeil had real bad years.
losing baez sucks but writing was on the wall Friday w/ Escobar
6/140 isn't crazy but it's a lot. He may have outkicked his projections by more than anyone else other than Semien. MLBTR had him at 5/100m. Martino says Mets went up to $125m (presumably with a 6th year, and my guess is if Baez took that they wouldn't have had the need to add Escobar and would have saved that $20m).
That's about the max I'd have gone too. Anything above 4 years is worrying for a guy so athletic because once that goes it can go quick (like Cespedes).
I know i initially called him mehduardo, but if you squint Escobar is really a pretty a cheap alternative to baez.
From 2019-2021:
Escobar (about 1500 PA):
67 hrs
228 rbis
.260 ba / .310 obp / .485 slg
7% bb
19% k
Baez is the better player, and also brings with him dynamic defense/baserunning. A 2nd gold glove shortstop would have been an incredible luxury. Not to mention seeing Lindor-Baez every day up the middle.
That said Escobar fills 3b which was a bigger weakness last year and gives McNeil a spot to bounce back. I still very much believe in McNeil and don't want to deal him so hopefully he and lindor can get over their shit now.
RE: Has there ever been a better 1-2 than JD and MS potentially could be?
all 4 of those duos won a World Series except Halladay/Lee and that team not only had Halladay and Lee, but also Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt for maybe the best top 4 of that era (or most eras).
should add 2 more "legit" SP. One good one, one Rich Hill/Bundy type and in addition should be looking to add AAA depth SP wise as well. Non-tenders may lead to some decent pen options. Fry/Scott from the Orioles both might be worth a look.
Or is he really a 3b that can hop over there in a pinch?
I won't pretend to know the answer here, but is there an example of an infielder who could play SS or 3B but struggled at 2B?
It always seemed to me a spot where you can basically just put someone after they fail at one of those other two spots (like Daniel Murphy and 3B for example).
Not minimizing the importance of 2B defense, only making it less specialized compared to SS or 3B.
Here's a question... Elvis Andrus has a second year player option at a whopping 15 million (if traded). How much does that negate the prospect cost for a Chapman and/or Manaea? I'd sure as hell inquire within
should add 2 more "legit" SP. One good one, one Rich Hill/Bundy type and in addition should be looking to add AAA depth SP wise as well. Non-tenders may lead to some decent pen options. Fry/Scott from the Orioles both might be worth a look.
if they were breaking camp today, I think this would be the 13 pitcher staff, the guys in bold are the ones that should need to compete to earn their spots:
JDG
Scherzer
Carrasco
Walker Peterson or Megill or Williams
Lugo
Diaz
May SRF
Castro
Smith
Gsellman
Y. Diaz?
Hill should be signed as a 6th starter/swing guy out of the pen. Or someone else who has that capability, though he seems the best candidate.
love Hill as an arm in the pen. He's never done it before and I don't know at 42, you really can feel confident his arm can hold up on back to back or multiple days per week and if not that hurts the BP.
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
No 60 day IR in the off-season so they would have to carry Lucchesi on the 40 man until opening day so there is no extra roster spot gained.
RE: RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
are at 38 without Scherzer, Escobar, Marte, Canha. If you remove say Reed, Payton, Santos, Nogosek that leaves you back at 38 without adding any other FA's which we know they will.
RE: RE: RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
wont cano take 1 of those spots?
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
RE: RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
No 60 day IR in the off-season so they would have to carry Lucchesi on the 40 man until opening day so there is no extra roster spot gained.
I know there's no DL in the offseason I meant that it's a luxury in season. Luchesi is an extra depth arm in the system for 2nd half (or whever he's ready) without costing anyone else roster spot.
If they bring in a few ST invites for example not on 40 man, and decide to keep one, they can probably find a way to wait to convert the invite to a contract after Luchesi gets moved to DL.
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
right so they have 1 open spot plus the 5 obvious cuts. They've added 4 players so have 2 open spots remaining (assuming those 5 cuts).
I think they probably need to add 4 total pitchers which would mean 2 more spots to clear, but 1 of those could be cleared by trade if they decide to add a P that way. And another (Hill?) could come in on a ST invite that converts after they clear Luchesi's roster spot to DL.
Luchesi/Yamamoto/Gsellman would be the next obvious ones if they don't make a trade or they just need to clear more spots but not sure that will happen pre-ST. The CBA probably won't be resolved until right at ST anyway.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: unless they need the 40 spot no reason to non-tender vs. cut in camp
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
right so they have 1 open spot plus the 5 obvious cuts. They've added 4 players so have 2 open spots remaining (assuming those 5 cuts).
I think they probably need to add 4 total pitchers which would mean 2 more spots to clear, but 1 of those could be cleared by trade if they decide to add a P that way. And another (Hill?) could come in on a ST invite that converts after they clear Luchesi's roster spot to DL.
Luchesi/Yamamoto/Gsellman would be the next obvious ones if they don't make a trade or they just need to clear more spots but not sure that will happen pre-ST. The CBA probably won't be resolved until right at ST anyway.
They almost certainly can find a better way to use the 40 man via a non-tendered player and/or Rule 5 than mediocre Robert Gsellman.
I don't know that Tanner Scott's command can be "fixed" but he held lefties to a .606 OPS against, is only 27 and there is a ton to like "stuff-wise". If he's non-tendered I'd like to see what Hefner and Co. could do with him Link - ( New Window )
to really argue with anything Law says here Link - ( New Window )
I'd argue with this (specifically the bold):
Quote:
He’ll replace what the Mets have lost with Stroman, maybe with fewer innings but comparable performance when he pitches.
That's kind of nitpicking given the overall piece. He also was "less high" on Scherzer as a FA before FA opened so he's not being a hater. He's very high on Stroman. Had him his #1 FA SP.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Javier Báez’s six-year, $140 agreement with the Tigers includes an opt-out after two years and a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block deals to 10 teams each year, sources tell @TheAthletic
. First to report news of the deal: @jonmorosi
and @feinsand
.
i can understand being high on Stroman as a FA asset because he should age pretty well. He's a highly athletic, low velo, ground ball pitcher. He has been steady.
he hasn't gotten a CY vote since 2017.
he hasn't gone over 184 innings since 2017.
he hasn't even had a winning record since 2017.
he's never had a sub-3 era for a season.
he's never had a sub 3.5 fip or xera over a full year.
Scherzer did all of those things just this year (including playoff innings) and probably had the best 2nd half of any player in baseball.
so the only way Stroman is comparable to him this year is if Scherzer goes off a cliff right away. Possible but doesn't seem super likely.
Steamer projects Scherzer being 2x as valuable as Stroman next year and putting up a better season than Stroman's best by more than 1 full win.
is what he said (and again, this was all pre free agency so there is no anti-Met bias etc)
"5. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 31
2021 WAR: 3.6 / Career WAR: 18.4
After opting out of the 2020 season, Stroman returned with his best campaign yet, posting his lowest ERA and FIP in a full season, along with career-best walk and strikeout rates. He’s still a sinker-slider guy, at least as his primary weapons go, with four other pitches he’ll show, notably an effective splitter he introduced this year. If there’s any reason for concern, it might be that Stroman’s sinker didn’t generate groundballs as well this year — 55 percent of sinkers hit into play were groundballs, compared to 62 percent in 2019 — but the pitch was just as effective at limiting hits, and he has consistently been among the 10 best starters in the majors at limiting home runs. He’s incredibly athletic and seems able to make adjustments as well as any pitcher in baseball, like adding an entirely new pitch in his age-30 season. I think he’s the best bet among free-agent starters this year, with a combination of upside and floor that puts him ahead of anyone else on the list."
and players shitcanned their meeting after 30 minutes. Grand scheme means nothing but those with dreams of a last minute deal.. not happening.
take fwiw but I heard from someone on the calls last week that it won't happen until they hit real deadlines but they don't have very many issues to resolve bc there's support for most of the status quo. I was skeptical but seeing all the $ thrown around this week it's clear that the players do like the current system.
and players shitcanned their meeting after 30 minutes. Grand scheme means nothing but those with dreams of a last minute deal.. not happening.
take fwiw but I heard from someone on the calls last week that it won't happen until they hit real deadlines but they don't have very many issues to resolve bc there's support for most of the status quo. I was skeptical but seeing all the $ thrown around this week it's clear that the players do like the current system.
There was never any reason for either side to ever even consider much traction until there was the threat of at least a condensed ST.
is what he said (and again, this was all pre free agency so there is no anti-Met bias etc)
"5. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 31
2021 WAR: 3.6 / Career WAR: 18.4
After opting out of the 2020 season, Stroman returned with his best campaign yet, posting his lowest ERA and FIP in a full season, along with career-best walk and strikeout rates. He’s still a sinker-slider guy, at least as his primary weapons go, with four other pitches he’ll show, notably an effective splitter he introduced this year. If there’s any reason for concern, it might be that Stroman’s sinker didn’t generate groundballs as well this year — 55 percent of sinkers hit into play were groundballs, compared to 62 percent in 2019 — but the pitch was just as effective at limiting hits, and he has consistently been among the 10 best starters in the majors at limiting home runs. He’s incredibly athletic and seems able to make adjustments as well as any pitcher in baseball, like adding an entirely new pitch in his age-30 season. I think he’s the best bet among free-agent starters this year, with a combination of upside and floor that puts him ahead of anyone else on the list."
"best bet" is very different than saying he will pitch as well as scherzer when they are on the field. There is nothing in either players full or recent history to suggest that.
I also think it's pretty telling that both of Stroman's former teams prioritized others over him.
And I say that as someone who agrees with Law that if you asked me who the safest SP investment is to produce in line with the $ I would say Stroman. I think he's a very safe bet to have 3 or 4 3+ fwar seasons over whatever deal he signs. That's very different than saying he will ever pitch comparably to Scherzer.
I keep looking at the other Scherzer thread and it went dead!
Can't blame Mets for not getting Baez. Good for him. I wonder if they think differently if not for "thumbs down"?
agree with those above - they wanted him back but the market took it out of reach. The projections on him were 4x20m or 5x20m and they were apparently willing to go beyond that up to 125m. Kind of like Springer last year it just got too expensive/risky for a luxury item.
I guess it seems Showalter and Ausmus are the favorites right now?
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
Not my original thought but I wonder where Rosenthal stands health wise? Dominant in 2020, "lost" 2021, @mets showed interest last off-season. Might be a nice low/zero risk flier
I guess it seems Showalter and Ausmus are the favorites right now?
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
No real indication there is any "favorite" just people connecting the obvious names.
I guess it seems Showalter and Ausmus are the favorites right now?
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
I think it's probably a very safe bet that it ends up being 1 of Showalter/Ausmus. Maybe 75%+?
Beltran or any other first timer no thanks. Pay for an experienced manager not someone who is learning on the job.
always liked Showalter but I would think they would need to feel confident he'd be comfortable taking substantial input from the FO/analytics side before hiring him. This would be new to a guy like him.
obviously depends on cost but he has 1 year of control left at $10m so that's a decent chunk of salary absorption and only 1 year left.
i'd guess he will cost more than JDD even with 2 extra years of control but Dom Smith or McNeil feels way too rich. Maybe JDD with a 10-20 range prospect?
could be wrong but I don't think Oakland wants to pay JD Davis about 3 million. He's already 29 years old this season and they are completely tearing it down. I'd be very surprised.
could be wrong but I don't think Oakland wants to pay JD Davis about 3 million. He's already 29 years old this season and they are completely tearing it down. I'd be very surprised.
Martino said they may be interested in cheaper players at big league level > prospects but it sounded like speculation. He threw out Manaea but suggested, Dom or McNeil which seem like big overpays to me.
Steamer projects Manaea to be worth 3 wins and JDD to be worth .7 (109 rc but only playing in 50 games). So if you prorate JDD to 140 games it's 2 wins vs. 3 wins. While saving $7m and getting 2 extra YOC. He was worth 1.6 fwar in 73 games this past season so not crazy. and if they trade Olson/Chapman both corners could be available along with DH.
but if JDD doesn't get it done I wonder if there's a Dom for Manaea+ trade that makes sense? Maybe grab a reliever with control or prospect?
could see them trading McNeil and replacing him with somebody like Cesar Hernandez. I'd prefer trading Smith or Davis over McNeil but I also suspect teams prefer McNeil to the other 2.
ok while im talking crazy if they want 1 more bat who says no to this
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
After signing the biggest deal (by AAV, $43,3M. Scherzer), the Mets are looking for another starting pitcher and one more bat
Dom + McNeil
for
Manaea + Chapman
saves Oakland about $15m and they pick up 6 years of control for 3. Escobar/Guillorme play 2b and mets have best left side of the IF in baseball.
it makes them very right handed so all of a sudden it would actually make Cano important again. But Chapman's D next to Lindor may be worth it.
Don't think that's remotely close. Matt Chapman has 2 seasons 6+ fWAR, posted 3.4 fWAR this year, is only 28 years old and is signed through 2023. The A's are cutting money but they aren't taking back 2 guys coming off down years, 1 of which is a 1b/DH and the other is already 30.
Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.
Read as being valued at mvp levels but when I look at his stats I just don’t get it. I never watch Oakland so no idea how he “looks” but a 715ops puts us where we were last year with Conforto, Dom and Mcneil.
" The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back."
Read as being valued at mvp levels but when I look at his stats I just don’t get it. I never watch Oakland so no idea how he “looks” but a 715ops puts us where we were last year with Conforto, Dom and Mcneil.
120 career OPS+
Best defensive player in baseball (by DRS) over the last 4 seasons (+63), 9 more runs saves than the 2nd best defensive player in the league.
context, Lindor 22 DRS over that time (12th best). So he's saved 41 more runs than Lindor over the past 4 seasons, and Lindor is 12th in the entire sport. 15 more runs saved than Kiermier, 9 more than Arenado.
From McNeil's first full year in 2019 through 2021
Chapman's defense is obviously enormously valuable that's why they'd be picking up 3 extra years of control between McNeil/Dom and saving $15m. Not saying it gets it done because I have no idea what Oakland wants, they may prefer prospects. But it's closer than you'd think.
be absolutely stunned if that's the kind of deal the A's make. McNeil is 30 this season. They want MLB ready players with many years of control not 30 year olds.
But he is talked about like he is a OPS+ average of 140 rather than 120 (which is inflated due to the one year he had a batting average over 250. I get defense with good power in that ballpark are appealing but not to the level he is bantered about.
But he is talked about like he is a OPS+ average of 140 rather than 120 (which is inflated due to the one year he had a batting average over 250. I get defense with good power in that ballpark are appealing but not to the level he is bantered about.
I don't disagree.
I'd 100% prefer McNeil in the lineup vs. Chapman especially with how right handed they are now.
The defense is special though and next to Lindor it would be crazy. I'm also a believer that 3b is very close to a premium D position.
with Chapman is the hip (which obviously can impact all facets of his game) but his defense is incredible (when healthy) and he's a good (not great) hitter. Overall he's a game changer for a pitching staff and he and Lindor would be ridiculous on the left side.
so back to reality then - is Manaea for Dom a yes?
for $10m/1 year anyone could easily just sign someone like Kikuchi and not give up anything. Oakland will get something for him but i'd be surprised if it's a blue chip.
stating the obvious but any team that trades for Dom is going to have to have an opening at 1b (which the A's very well may). He's not an OF and a DH has close to zero trade value.
stating the obvious but any team that trades for Dom is going to have to have an opening at 1b (which the A's very well may). He's not an OF and a DH has close to zero trade value.
I could also see him in a 3 team where the 3rd team is the Twins. they have no 1b, he'd be a very good fit there, and was supposedly half of the ask for Berrios at the deadline.
in hindsight Dom + Mauricio for Berrios may not have been as high a price as it seemed.
is solid, and I'd do Dom for him with the quickness but he's also pretty overrated. Career 3.96 FIP, 3.66 in 2021. Steamer projects 3.76. He's very solid but that's the word I'd use "solid", the aforementioned Kikuchi has a projected FIP in 2022 of .30 runs higher (for example).
stating the obvious but any team that trades for Dom is going to have to have an opening at 1b (which the A's very well may). He's not an OF and a DH has close to zero trade value.
I could also see him in a 3 team where the 3rd team is the Twins. they have no 1b, he'd be a very good fit there, and was supposedly half of the ask for Berrios at the deadline.
in hindsight Dom + Mauricio for Berrios may not have been as high a price as it seemed.
How does Dom and Mauricio compare to Austin Martin and SWR?
Seems like a comparable offer.
I would have done the trade for Berrios before I did the one for Baez because I felt like pitching was more likely going to influence the Mets fleeting chances than a 2B.
but in the end Berrios was still potentially a rental. Blue Jays made it right.
Good - kikuchi
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Very curious why you would prefer Manaea outside of handedness. Chris Bassitt despite his age has indicators that he's become a VERY good MLB SP. His savant page is a thing of beauty and over his last 38 starts has been worth 4.6 fWAR. Got hit in the face otherwise he was headed towards an even bigger season.
"I wouldn’t change anything, from where I came from, it’s made me mentally hardened, so I can deal with crap and say, it’s okay, this is fine. Guys that grind their way to success are tough sons of bitches.” — Chris Bassitt to me August 3rd, back on the mound today.
wouldn't hate Greinke as the #5 if they added another arm. 3 truly great SP in one rotation (Greinke obviously has been better days).
I thought Greinke was one of those guys who always said he preferred not to play in NY. Didn't he have some mental health issues that he felt like would not make him a good fit under the bright lights?
wouldn't hate Greinke as the #5 if they added another arm. 3 truly great SP in one rotation (Greinke obviously has been better days).
I thought Greinke was one of those guys who always said he preferred not to play in NY. Didn't he have some mental health issues that he felt like would not make him a good fit under the bright lights?
That was earlier in his career, more recently he agreed to remove his no trade to go to the Yankees (but the trade fell apart).
battled social anxiety (and I'm sure he still does) but especially bad with KC, he then pitched for both LA teams with great success. I'd be more concerned he's 38 and looks close to done, but he's the kind of guy who can use his smarts and experience to provide some quality outings.
pitcher and I had the chance to join a rotation headed by deGrom and Scherzer I'd try and influence that as much as possible.
Rodon also shares an agent with Scherzer. You’d think there would be some value to “go pitch with Max and deGrom for 2 years, stay healthy and you too could get a mega deal” which wouldn’t be a false statement
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
13m
Teams are trying to pry superstar 1B Freddie Freeman from Atlanta. Some say they still don’t think it will happen but r surprised he’s still free. Dodgers, who lost Seager and could move Muncy to 2B, may have best hope for SoCal product, NYY, TOR (h/t Carlos Baerga) reached out.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
15m
Teams are trying to pry superstar 1B Freddie Freeman from Atlanta. Some say they still don’t think it will happen but r surprised he’s still free. Dodgers, who lost Seager and could move Muncy to 2B, may have best hope for SoCal product, NYY, TOR (h/t Carlos Baerga) reached out.
Bradford William Davis
@BWDBWDBWD
did you know MLB used not one, but *two* different balls all season? And that the balls were designed to perform differently?
You didn’t?
Well the players, coaches, execs and scouts I spoke said they didn’t either!
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1m
Rays have full 40-man roster and need to make room for Kluber. Per sources, both Kiermaier and Wendle being discussed in trades.
Would love to see @Mets
continue to use their financial muscle (woah did I really just type that?) and sign Matthew Boyd to a deal that includes a 2023 option. Eye towards 2023 vs. big 2022 expectations in regard to Boyd
Is this the most exciting off-season you can ever remember?
Korry Howell might make for an interesting Rule 5 choice for @mets. Has OF/SS experience and is a 70 runner with average power. Could be a nice bench piece
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
1m
The Rockies have had discussions with Kris Bryant’s camp, per source, and the interest is real. Given the CBA situation, the clock is ticking for a deal will get done prior to the expiration of the CBA, as time would be tight at this point to get a physical done.
RE: Is this the most exciting off-season you can ever remember?
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
37s
Mark Canha official with Mets: $2M signing bonus, $12M in 2022, $10.5M in ‘23. Club option in ‘24 for $11.5M or $2M buyout.
RE: RE: Is this the most exciting off-season you can ever remember?
Good - kikuchi
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Very curious why you would prefer Manaea outside of handedness. Chris Bassitt despite his age has indicators that he's become a VERY good MLB SP. His savant page is a thing of beauty and over his last 38 starts has been worth 4.6 fWAR. Got hit in the face otherwise he was headed towards an even bigger season.
i just like the profile of former high end prospects who have proven they can be replacement level or better, but not great, approaching age 30. Same as Walker last year. Ray and Gausman would have fit that description at this time last year. Gray and Matz. Wheeler and Scherzer both would have fit that description once upon a time too (obviously at very different price points).
i have 0 issues if they'd choose Bassitt but i'd lean towards the pedigree/3 years younger/lefty. they are close enough i'd have no issue taking on whichever 1 is cheaper to acquire.
be fine with Manaea but he's made 128 MLB starts and nothing in his numbers has changed to suggest a next level is coming. Despite being a big lefty he's oddly hittable (career 8.6/9) so hitters see the ball quite well coming out of his hand. He'd be a solid addition, Bassitt just looks to be a guy who may have figured something out to unlock a "next level". I don't particularly care about ages on 1 year deals.
Tweets
See new Tweets
Tweets
Tim Britton Retweeted
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6m
Starling Marte official with Mets: $5M signing bonus ($2.5M each payable on 1/31/22 and 1/31/23). $14.5M in 2022, $19.5M in 2023 and ‘24.
Tim Britton Retweeted
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
4m
Oops, and $19.5M in 2025, too!
Quote Tweet
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
· 7m
Starling Marte official with Mets: $5M signing bonus ($2.5M each payable on 1/31/22 and 1/31/23). $14.5M in 2022, $19.5M in 2023 and ‘24.
in '06 Delgado, Wagner, Lo Duca were all 1 offseason.
Scherzer/Marte/Canha/Escobar is a big single offseason like '06, and hopefully similarly puts the roster over the top into contention, but I'd argue last year was actually more of a long term realignment like '05 when they got Beltran. But both of cohen's offseasons are bigger.
Last year they not only traded for Lindor but signed him to 10 year extension. If he gets back to his usual level he could be like having Beltran except for the majority of his career, not just a piece in the middle.
Carrasco could still be an important piece and Walker was an all star who just hit a wall. His stuff passed the eye test and was still a steal at his price tag. Hopefully he can give them a full year this year.
Plus Loup/McCann/May/Pillar/Villar Stroman QO.
The season didn't go the way we wanted but last offseason was pretty explosive. Just a little sloppy with the coaching/leadership/depth.
would really be a great move using Cohen's money. He potentially could offset Walker leaving after 2022. 31 in February and lefty. Strong seasons in 2018, 2019 and 2021
be fine with Manaea but he's made 128 MLB starts and nothing in his numbers has changed to suggest a next level is coming. Despite being a big lefty he's oddly hittable (career 8.6/9) so hitters see the ball quite well coming out of his hand. He'd be a solid addition, Bassitt just looks to be a guy who may have figured something out to unlock a "next level". I don't particularly care about ages on 1 year deals.
on 1 year deal i dont care about age but if either pitched well here I'd expect them to get extended. neither is old enough that there's a big downside and they both have about the same number of innings, but all things equal younger is generally better.
I really like Manaea's low walk rate combined with missing bats. Also in his case since he's been able to consistently succeed without great statcast peripherals I actually think that does suggest there may be another level. He already has control and he already knows how to get k's. if he learns how to pitch to weaker contact even just getting his exit velo and hh rate to league average, he could find another level. And presumably that might be possible just with different pitch mix/location vs. needing better raw stuff.
obviously, they have exceeded it. I don't care (nor do I think Cohen does) about any tax penalties, but are the Mets at the point where their pick will be moved back 10 spots? I doubt that is a major concern, but I'm curious. I googled trying to find an article on it after the signings, but came up blank.
RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
RE: any idea where the Mets are on the luxury tax?
obviously, they have exceeded it. I don't care (nor do I think Cohen does) about any tax penalties, but are the Mets at the point where their pick will be moved back 10 spots? I doubt that is a major concern, but I'm curious. I googled trying to find an article on it after the signings, but came up blank.
they are somewhere right around $270m which I believe would knock the pick back, however I'm not sure if it would knock the pick back this year (2022) or next year (2023).
Also luxury tax thresholds increasing sounds likely to happen in the new CBA, and i'd imagine the draft penalties could change with it.
and who knows what else they throw into the negotiations. Maybe owners ask for a 1 time buy out or something? That would let Cohen knock off Cano's 20m.
Bottomline at this point they should just ignore it. 10 picks later and 1m less in bonus money isn't the end of the world. They can still go overslot if there's a player there they really like.
I find this year and last year to be the most exciting offseasons
difference between now and then: Cohen. Besides the 4 players the Mets have gotten, Cohen has shown to be what fans hoped and thought he was when he bought the team: a guy who grew up a die-hard Mets fan like the rest of us and wants to win badly, made billions of dollars, bought the Mets and is willing to spend whatever it takes to win. It's a childhood fantasy realized.
yeah, I agree that they will ignore it, and should. Ultimately, 10 slots is not much of a difference that it will change much. I'm just curious in looking at the larger scheme of it.
RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
RE: I find this year and last year to be the most exciting offseasons
difference between now and then: Cohen. Besides the 4 players the Mets have gotten, Cohen has shown to be what fans hoped and thought he was when he bought the team: a guy who grew up a die-hard Mets fan like the rest of us and wants to win badly, made billions of dollars, bought the Mets and is willing to spend whatever it takes to win. It's a childhood fantasy realized.
I feel that way too. Although I feel more excited about this years players, especially Scherzer, seeing Cohen put his money where his mouth is, has been very exciting for me.
I'm just very (I can't keep using the word exciting...but) excited to see DeGrom, Scherzer at 1, 2. all summer (hopefully, barring injury).
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
30s
The #Rays are indeed engaging seriously on Kevin Kiermaier. #Yankees have had interest b4 and do again as @lindseyadler
reported. But 2 AL East teams unlikely to find match.
RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
I understand Dan. For me, it was the '69 team, because it was so unexpected, and the '86team, because it was so dominant.
Was 2005 the team that had the great defensive infield, or was that '99?
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez? I see that they allowed just 20 earned runs, least of any team since 1900.
When this all began. After the other signings though I just can’t see the financials making sense. He gives them a ton of flexibility and depth though.
When this all began. After the other signings though I just can’t see the financials making sense. He gives them a ton of flexibility and depth though.
Me too, that's what I wanted, Scherzer and Bryant.
Do you feel that with Scherzer and Marte they has satisfied your dream?
I still feel sad about their losing Syndergaard.
Do you think they would have signed Scherzer if they hadn't lost Syndergaard?
RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
Yeah I am with you on the '05 offseason... the '99 and 2000 teams have a special place in my heart as well..
However, the '06 team is the one that will forever have me. I'll never get over that team not winning it all..
RE: RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
Do you think The Mets would have signed Scherzer if they had signed Syndergarrd?
If they had signed Syndergaard, and not Scherzer, what other players do you think they would have signed instead? This is assuming that the 3 players they signed on Sat, ( Marte. Canho, and ?) would still have been signed.
Baez?
Stroman?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
most of the 2nd SP we are talking about are going to cost at least $10m.
So maybe they subtract Escobar and just go a little cheaper with someone like Villar for the IF. But I think they still 100% go after Scherzer.
I still wish Syndergaard would have come back, and with the way things have gone I have to think he might even want a do-over there. But he is going to be on an innings limit so unless he was willing to do extended ST and start the year later who knows if he even would have been around for games that matter.
I was young and still star struck and I thought it couldn't possibly get any better than Doc, Straw, Keith, Gary, Nails, Ronnie, etc.
little did I know I was right.
Yeah, from a season standpoint I'm with Dan on 1999 and 2000. I'm about a year older than Dan looks like, so I was 6 in 1986, so wasn't paying attention at that age.
it's kind of like Buxton in that the injuries are the obvious challenge. AJ Pollock was similar with LAD a few years back (he took a 4 year/55m deal with an option).
Buxton got a 7 year deal for 100m which is $14m AAV. He also got really high bonuses if he ever hits MVP.
I think something similar for Nimmo would be really smart. They could go with a deal more along the lines of what they just gave Marte, but if CBT matters why not just spread it out over more years?
great OBP guy, and I don't think it would cost him anything excessive. They would have Nimmo and Marte for the next few years, and Canha. By the time Canha phases out to a backup, hopefully Mauricio is ready to step into the other corner. That's the hope with Escobar/Baty and McCann/Alvarez as well.
Canha #2 in the AL in pitches seen. Canha/Nimmo = annoy the shit out of other teams.
If there is a DH, or in games there is a DH, it would be interesting to see Canha hit 9th. I'd try it a few games. The two of them back to back would be interesting.
dont forget Vientos - he has crazy RH power so if he moves to LF
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
Canha #2 in the AL in pitches seen. Canha/Nimmo = annoy the shit out of other teams.
If there is a DH, or in games there is a DH, it would be interesting to see Canha hit 9th. I'd try it a few games. The two of them back to back would be interesting.
before they signed Mart I though canha would hit 2 behind nimmo and in front of Lindor. with the DH hitting him 9th would be really savvy.
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I was young and still star struck and I thought it couldn't possibly get any better than Doc, Straw, Keith, Gary, Nails, Ronnie, etc.
little did I know I was right.
Yeah, from a season standpoint I'm with Dan on 1999 and 2000. I'm about a year older than Dan looks like, so I was 6 in 1986, so wasn't paying attention at that age.
It was a magical year for me between the Mets, Giants, Canadiens and Celtics. I thought every year would be like that. Tough life lesson the next 30+ years.
And I wasn't some bandwagonner those were my teams for a few years before '86 even though when I was 5 my mother bought me a Steelers winter coat (I still haven't forgiven her).
I saw all my teams win again after '86 except the Mets.
as a fan base sounds like fans like you and DMM never got to experience a WS yet, so we're due.
RE: RE: dont forget Vientos - he has crazy RH power so if he moves to LF
That wouldn't surprise me but plenty of bigger power hitters have found homes in LF. Not too different than Dom at least being playable in LF. Not saying you want to pencil in either one regularly only that the flexibility is a positive.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
first sports championship I remember actually understanding was XXV, and for some reason I decided pouring a glass of water on my head was how I would celebrate? I can only assume it was my version of a gatorade bath. The 94 Rangers were the first of my teams that I truly knew what was going on and lived and died with every game. Back then the Knicks were far and away my #1 priority. My teams have always been the same but over time the Mets became my #1 "love".
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: .Dan, what's your recollection re the most exciting offseason?
is going to beat Baty to the big leagues. Baty doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until NEXT off-season so unless he's incredible (or they have a clear need) they aren't going to rush him up.
is going to beat Baty to the big leagues. Baty doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until NEXT off-season so unless he's incredible (or they have a clear need) they aren't going to rush him up.
I'd imagine whatever role jdd fills if he's still around ends up going to Vientos by midseason. and he could force the issue sooner. The only comp to his hit/power combo last year is Alonso for Met prospects that I can think of. His 10 games at Cuse were only that, 10 games, but 3 homers, a 16% walk rate, and near 1000 ops...
his triple slash in AA was .281/.346/.580
when he went up to AAA it was .278/.395/.583
thats...consistent.
for comparison Alonso's AA/AAA season triple slash was .285/.395/.579 - but half those at bats were in Vegas. And he was 2 years older.
the season immediately after that he broke the team's HR record.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
58s
It might not be a front-burner issue, but the Mets have shown some level of interest in a possible reunion with Jeurys Familia. Bullpen is still an area where the Mets could use multiple additions.
One interesting note on Kikuchi... he has HORRENDOUS career numbers vs. the Angels (Eppler's previous team) 1.228 OPS, 10.92 era against over 7 starts, so it's interesting/curious that @mets are interested #Mets
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
58s
It might not be a front-burner issue, but the Mets have shown some level of interest in a possible reunion with Jeurys Familia. Bullpen is still an area where the Mets could use multiple additions.
I'd take Familia back. When he's right he is still filthy and he got some of his control back. He faded 2nd half but had a very solid first half.
Need a bounce back year from Lugo and need to hope whoever the manager is can find a way to use Diaz effectively. I don't think he has the head for games that really matter.
But my main concern is are they going to hit this year?
Too many offensive let downs last year.
the most encouraging thing they've done is brought in 2 guys whose skills don't slump.
Canha draws walks like Nimmo (who didn't slump last year) and uses the whole field.
Marte is a career .290 hitter / .350 OBP and "speed doesn't slump".
Cano in theory would help in that area too but you can't count on it unless Cohen found him a really good chemist.
So while they need bouncebacks from Lindor/McNeil/Dom they've also added players whose skills should help steady the offense and be a little more bust proof.
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
No Dennis... sorry to belabor this here...
His name is Edgardo Alfonzo... with a Z
You typed Alfonso...like Alfonso Soriano..with an S
I was not alluding to his nickname in any way, shape or form.
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
No Dennis... sorry to belabor this here...
His name is Edgardo Alfonzo... with a Z
You typed Alfonso...like Alfonso Soriano..with an S
I was not alluding to his nickname in any way, shape or form.
OK, thank you. Good to know. It's always good to learn something new.
Is going to be dangerous shortly. Phillies have a very strong top 3. Division figures to be very good outside of the Nationals
Kim Ng seems like the goods. Makes a lot of shrewd moves. got Cimber/Pop/bender for nothing. I liked the Luzardo gamble and then tried to double dip and get Marte back too. text book pump and dump with Thompson for Stallings.
RE: dont forget Vientos - he has crazy RH power so if he moves to LF
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
RE: RE: dont forget Vientos - he has crazy RH power so if he moves to LF
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
Canha is conforto-lite for a discount price. Steadier albeit less upside version of the same solid D, high OBP, and XBH threat. Can play all 3 positions. He's not making much more than Pillar + Almora last year.
I think the days of deals like that standing in the way of adding a reliever they want are over. If there's a reliever they like they are going to get them.
SIS_Baseball @sis_baseball
7m
With acquisitions of Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, Marlins seem to be prioritizing defense
Catcher was their weakest defensive position by Defensive Runs Saved last season - Stallings ranked No. 1 in MLB
Wendle can play 3B/SS/2B, had 10 Runs Saved there in 2021
imo defense has been way overlooked despite the analytical revolution.
each team gets 27 outs, great defense literally gives your team more outs than the opposition in every game. and bad defense gives the other team more outs than you get.
defense is the #1 reason the mets were in first for 100 days last year and it fell off when Lindor got hurt, which is not too surprising given he was the 2nd best defender in baseball by OAA last year.
RE: RE: RE: dont forget Vientos - he has crazy RH power so if he moves to LF
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
Canha is conforto-lite for a discount price. Steadier albeit less upside version of the same solid D, high OBP, and XBH threat. Can play all 3 positions. He's not making much more than Pillar + Almora last year.
I think the days of deals like that standing in the way of adding a reliever they want are over. If there's a reliever they like they are going to get them.
1. .356 OBP is also Conforto's career OBP exactly, so like I said at worst he seems like a diet-conforto at a cheap price. Gets on base, sees tons of pitches, plays solid d, steals the occasional base, gets xbhs.
2. last year his first half/second half splits are considerable. supposedly he had a hip injury and wasn't the same after that.
obviously you hope they only sign him if the docs think he's healthy now. but the salary is low enough in a worst case he could function as a part time player so it's a low risk decent upside move if they get the 1st half player.
i guess there may at least be some discussions re: managers and coaching staff. I wonder if they make a play to bring on the analytics guy from the Nats as an AGM.
wouldn’t mind bringing him in to compete as backup OF or AAA depth
AAA depth maybe but he's been an absolute zero with the bat and they have Lee/Plummer. For free, sure why not but 28 this season with a 54 OPS+ (not a typo)
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
wouldn’t mind bringing him in to compete as backup OF or AAA depth
AAA depth maybe but he's been an absolute zero with the bat and they have Lee/Plummer. For free, sure why not but 28 this season with a 54 OPS+ (not a typo)
Oh, he’s been a bust for them, but he did flash for some periods last year. Best case scenario, he would be an upgrade from an Almora and allow younger players like Plummer and Lee to get full time at bats at AAA
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
I would have let Williams go at hisi projected 4 million but nothing surprising to me.
It makes me so happy we have any owner let alone Cohen. If I recall under the original terms this would be what year 3 up coming of that ass backwards transition plan.
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
I don't see anything shocking here. Was expecting non-tenders to be a little deeper but no big deal.
the guy was never anything less than a team player in his first 3 years. Need someone to move to the OF? 3B? he was the guy and he played them all well.
And all he did was hit the ball better and strike out less than pretty much anyone else in the game from the day he debuted.
He is Ben Zobrist. And Ben Zobrist won 2 WS back to back for 2 different teams, playing multiple positions, and imo was the MVP in both postseasons.
They need to resolve whatever the differences were between McNeil and Lindor because McNeil has the ability to be 1 of the best 2b in all baseball over the next 3 years and his bat control is elite. Do not give up elite skills.
the guy was never anything less than a team player in his first 3 years. Need someone to move to the OF? 3B? he was the guy and he played them all well.
And all he did was hit the ball better and strike out less than pretty much anyone else in the game from the day he debuted.
He is Ben Zobrist. And Ben Zobrist won 2 WS back to back for 2 different teams, playing multiple positions, and imo was the MVP in both postseasons.
They need to resolve whatever the differences were between McNeil and Lindor because McNeil has the ability to be 1 of the best 2b in all baseball over the next 3 years and his bat control is elite. Do not give up elite skills.
Yeah I really hope we don't sell low on McNeil or sell at all. I hope Lindor isn't causing issues behind the scenes that he wants him out of here.
2018-2020 McNeil was the most consistent hitter in MLB (1k+ ABs)
batting averages were between .311-.329
his on base% was between .381-.384
his rc+ was between 131-144
walk rate progressively improved from 5.5%-9.5%
k rate was consistently good between 10%-13%
the BA, OBP, RC, and k-rate I believe would all be best on the team over that period of time.
then 2021 happened. first he had the fight with Lindor. Then the injury. And on top of all that extreme bad luck (his BABIP was 60 points under his previous career average - so as is almost always the case with all players his batting average was also 60 points below his career average).
with all that his BB/K rates remained steady.
his whiff rate was almost 90th percentile.
his outs above average were 90th percentile.
there wasn't any major regression to his exit velocities or HH%. he actually had his 2nd best year by avg. exit velocity and set a new best for max exit velocity.
he may be 1 of the best bounce back candidates in the entire game and steamer agrees projecting him to a 115 RC in 2022 and near 3 fwar season (prorated to 550 ABs). Which is imo a pretty conservative projection too.
here's the split of all met hitters from 2018-2020 with 500+ at bats
if you get 2019 McNeil he's valuable to the team and should be kept, but his precipitous drop from 2019 to 2020 is made more concerning after his continued drop from 2020 to 2021.
here's jeff mcneil vs. every 2b in MLB from 2018-2020
if you get 2019 McNeil he's valuable to the team and should be kept, but his precipitous drop from 2019 to 2020 is made more concerning after his continued drop from 2020 to 2021.
what drop from 2019 to 2020?
2019 his wrc was 144
2020 his wrc was 133
2019 his obp was 384
2020 his obp was 383
in 2020 his walk rate improved by 3% (from 6 to 9%)
in 2020 his k rate improved by 2% (from 13% to 11%)
in 2019 he put up 4.6 fwar
in 2020's 52 games he put up 1.2 fwar (x3 for a full season = 3.6 fwar)
he hit fewer homers in 2020, but that's about it. Everything else was comparable.
left out batting average - it went from .318 in '19 to .311 in '20
i think it comes down to what you get back for him. Also, his relationship w/Lindor doesn't help. I was sold on him a couple years ago...not so much anymore
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
are both cost controlled for a few more years. Both would be expensive. Don't know if they would have an interest in Smith, as they have Votto. But IMO, it would likely cost Smith/McNeil, plus Mauricio, plus maybe taking back a contract. Don't want to trade Alvarez or Baty for either. Alvarez is pretty much off limits unless you are talking someone really insane (ie Soto)
Gray would be cheaper due to contract status.
For the cost of what it would cost, I would much rather go for Rodon.
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
Reds have the ROY at 2b. McNeil wouldn't be a big target for them.
is almost as much an outlier as 2021 when you include stats like ISO, wOBA and wRC.
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
the Mets want the Reds SP you're sending back prospects. Dom Smith has very little value to them with Votto at 1b and they have the reigning ROY at 2b. They would almost certainly insist on Mauricio as part of any deal
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
No disagreement here. Just saying if the Guardians called the Mets and said Ramirez can be had, I would in fact include Alvarez. Ramirez is that good.
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
Reds have the ROY at 2b. McNeil wouldn't be a big target for them.
they could put him in LF. that's what the mets likely would have done if Baez accepted the deal a month ago. they could have still signed Marte too and put Nimmo in RF (and no Canha).
If you're a believer in McNeil's offense (which presumably any team trading for him would be) a 130+ rc can play anywhere.
"osé Berríos trade: Blue Jays land Twins righty at MLB trade deadline
Berríos, a two-time All-Star, is under team control through the end of next season"
So Castillo has more time left on his deal than Berrios did.
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
No disagreement here. Just saying if the Guardians called the Mets and said Ramirez can be had, I would in fact include Alvarez. Ramirez is that good.
Definitely not used to calling them the Guardians.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130M contract with the Mets includes four premium tickets to each home game. Also says he may purchase four tickets to each post-season home game. $200K for MVP, $200K for Cy Young, $150K for World Series MVP, $100K for LCS MVP, $100K for All-Star
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
Cruz is one of my favorite non-Mets ever. Still absolutely crushing the ball. Pete/Cruz back to back in a line... oh baby
I just looked him up to see when the Mets let him go. Traded for SS Jorge Valendia the year Ordonez broke his arm. Valendia had 11 hits in 74 ABs in his Mets career.
Cruz is one of my favorite non-Mets ever. Still absolutely crushing the ball. Pete/Cruz back to back in a line... oh baby
I just looked him up to see when the Mets let him go. Traded for SS Jorge Valendia the year Ordonez broke his arm. Valendia had 11 hits in 74 ABs in his Mets career.
Reminds me of losing Darren O'Day for what I recall was 1 start from somebody lol
is almost as much an outlier as 2021 when you include stats like ISO, wOBA and wRC.
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
Their 114 RC projection is perfectly fine though so if you want a fair approximation of his steamer value next year it's easy enough to project him to a full season of at bats. Their at bat projection is likely low because of depth chart uncertainty. Just adjusting for 550 at bats brings his steamer projection to 2.5 fwar which is above average.
Also their projected D value on him is bizarrely negative even though he had a +4 DRS and was 89th percentile in OAA at 2b - both in line with his career averages. So unless you think he's about to go over a defensive cliff or unless you are penalizing him for his bad metrics on other positions last year, his steamer projection adjusted to a full season at 2b is probably 3+ fwar.
And re: Murphy, there's zero worry he will turn into Murphy. His first 2.5 years were as good as Murphy's 2.5 years with the Nats which were the best of his career - so he has already been the good version of Murphy, except with positive value defense instead of negative.
Dan Murphy as a Nat (1380 PA) - .329 / .380 / .550
Jeff McNeil '18-'20 (1024 PA) - .319 / .383 / .501
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130M contract with the Mets includes four premium tickets to each home game. Also says he may purchase four tickets to each post-season home game. $200K for MVP, $200K for Cy Young, $150K for World Series MVP, $100K for LCS MVP, $100K for All-Star
Is the ticket thing some sort of anomaly or something? Guy just got paid $130M, give him whatever tickets he wants to each home game. Just thought it is odd to bring that up by Rosenthal.
is almost as much an outlier as 2021 when you include stats like ISO, wOBA and wRC.
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
Their 114 RC projection is perfectly fine though so if you want a fair approximation of his steamer value next year it's easy enough to project him to a full season of at bats. Their at bat projection is likely low because of depth chart uncertainty. Just adjusting for 550 at bats brings his steamer projection to 2.5 fwar which is above average.
Also their projected D value on him is bizarrely negative even though he had a +4 DRS and was 89th percentile in OAA at 2b - both in line with his career averages. So unless you think he's about to go over a defensive cliff or unless you are penalizing him for his bad metrics on other positions last year, his steamer projection adjusted to a full season at 2b is probably 3+ fwar.
And re: Murphy, there's zero worry he will turn into Murphy. His first 2.5 years were as good as Murphy's 2.5 years with the Nats which were the best of his career - so he has already been the good version of Murphy, except with positive value defense instead of negative.
Dan Murphy as a Nat (1380 PA) - .329 / .380 / .550
Jeff McNeil '18-'20 (1024 PA) - .319 / .383 / .501
Rob Piersall
@RTPiersall
·
6m
The Mets have made a pair of minor signings:
The team inked southpaw Rob Zastryzny and catcher Nick Dini to minor league contracts.
Zastryzny last pitched for the Chicago Cubs in 2018 and has a career 4.41 ERA in 18 games.
Dini appeared in 20 games for the Royals in 2019.
Not expecting anything from the lefty, but Dini could be interesting. I could at least see him challenging Mazeika for backup C to be called up should McCann or Nido get injured.
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.
McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.
Sometimes guys just have bad years.
buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.
McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.
Sometimes guys just have bad years.
buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.
Yeah, there is definitely that x factor that nobody can explain when it comes to why guys have an off year out of the blue.
I think with McNeil the worry is that this is not an "off year" but that the league has figured him out. I don't really buy that for many of the reasons you mentioned (continuing low k and whiff rates).
However, he does need to adjust his approach and be more selective, especially with that low, outside pitch.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
· 1h
Freddie Freeman is the superstar free agent to watch today. While many have expected him to return to Atlanta, the Yankees and Dodgers are among the teams with interest, as @JonHeyman has noted. Freeman also could fit the Red Sox. @MLB @MLBNetwork
Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.
RE: Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.
The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.
RE: RE: Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation
2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.
The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.
the fact that the underlying contact metrics are so similar suggests more of an approach issue. his exit velocities went up even without pulling the ball more so not saying an injury is impossible but would have been a weird injury where he could generate more power but in a different direction.
and again when taken with the fact that multiple hitters regressed just like he did and a new analytics team was implemented, a fresh start with a new hitting coach seems like the elephant in the room.
Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.
Forgot that Castellanos got the QO. Wonder what is going to happen with Conforto? Will he get a multi-year contract?
actually with Eric, I'd prefer to keep McNeil. That being said, if there is any "positive" to the lockout, the Mets can reassess and figure out if dealing McNeil to sign a guy like Bryant makes sense or not. The impression is (as I noted above) FA is already all but paused.
haven't heard much about it but it came up in 2020 so assume it would come up again?
this is 100% guess but most of the horse trading is likely to be in that area. I'd guess the easy gives from owners to players are a salary floor, higher lux tax threshold, looser restrictions on fa mobility (like the pick forfeiture), and the DH. All of those things promote more spending to the players. Probably also some token gives to the conditions for minor leaguers.
I don't know what the owners are going to want from the players from their end, but maybe it's just a matter of those are the hostages they are willing to give up to maintain the status quo of the overall system?
with the way the last week went i find it hard to believe there's enough motivation on the players side to try to blow up the 6 years of team control until FA, and i expect that to be the place where the owners draw the line in the sand.
should be noted, issues that have been discussed for YEARS now never actually end up being frontburner issues aka International draft, treatment/pay for minor leaguers because the MLBPA by and large doesn't care about anybody but themselves. I'm completely pro-player in these discussions but it sucks how little they care about where they came from.
actually with Eric, I'd prefer to keep McNeil. That being said, if there is any "positive" to the lockout, the Mets can reassess and figure out if dealing McNeil to sign a guy like Bryant makes sense or not. The impression is (as I noted above) FA is already all but paused.
yeah if mcneil can bring back something you can't get any other way (like Castillo) you consider it but I'd deal Mauricio before I deal McNeil and a high upside 20 year old prospect is typically going to be more what a selling team is looking for than a 29 year old.
I wouldn't deal either for anything other than a true TOR arm.
should be noted, issues that have been discussed for YEARS now never actually end up being frontburner issues aka International draft, treatment/pay for minor leaguers because the MLBPA by and large doesn't care about anybody but themselves. I'm completely pro-player in these discussions but it sucks how little they care about where they came from.
agree here as well - most likely there will be some token gives but it seems like the status quo is going to remain.
The MLB union to me is one of the most unsympathetic entities around (far more than any other players union). It’s tough to be completely sympathetic to owners obviously but the players union has significantly hamstrung the development of the game with what appears to be an insane level of rigidity.
just find it to be unbelievable how poorly minor leaguers are treated, how long players have to wait to make even a "fair" salary. There are numerous stories of players sleeping on floors because they can't afford hotel rooms. At the big league level if you don't make it at least until your arbitration years, you really don't make much money at all and if you're a college player and take say 4 years to make the majors, you're low 30's by the time you're a FA aka "past your prime". The labor stuff is a pretty "boring" topic but the first overall pick in the NBA draft was guaranteed something like 45 million, the first overall pick in the MLB draft (Henry Davis)... 6.5
The MLB union to me is one of the most unsympathetic entities around (far more than any other players union). It’s tough to be completely sympathetic to owners obviously but the players union has significantly hamstrung the development of the game with what appears to be an insane level of rigidity.
To be clear, I think Tony Clark is a jackass. I'm not "pro-MLBPA", I'm pro the talent themselves.
Of the current system verse something like the rest of the leagues where it’s based on revenue sharing.
MLBPA is staunchly against any type of cap, but it would not shock me if they are getting a smaller percentage of revenue as a result. Furthermore that setup would 1) alleviate a lot of the current issues around arbitration, 2) create parity if there is a floor requirement, and 3) stop the constant bickering over changes like expansion of playoffs since the MLBPA would be incentivized
much for Showalter/Ausmus being the clear frontrunners. Neither would need permission to interview
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
12s
Mets general manager Billy Eppler says the team has formed a "pretty wide" list of managerial candidates. The club is still deciding which to call/ask permission to interview.
Sounds like the process will pick up later this week, with formal interviews happening "very soon."
I agree there are a lot of problems with treatment of minor leaguers
the lack of providing housing, the income is way too low, etc. But you can't compare it to the NBA or NFL draft. Baseball players usually take years to make an impact after being drafted. It's not the case in the other sports.
Britt Ghiroli
@Britt_Ghiroli
·
6m
Scherzer said the Dodgers limiting his pitch count and trying to keep him fresh for the postseason lowered his work capacity and he thinks led to his dead arm. Said in DC he was relied on and pushed to consistently go 110 pitches every five days so more built up for ‘19 WS run
Headlining a deal? Maybe, one for one? No. Castillo is 9th in baseball by fWAR since opening day 2020. Mauricio is a good, but not "elite" prospect with a high variance. 2 seasons of Castillo is a worth a ton
I'm very impressed with Scherzer's emotional maturity; his care for, and about his family, his desire to succeed, his thoughtfulness. He deems like more than just a "jock".
He apparently really wants to play with DeGrom. I think that both of them share a level of professionalism and commitment to their profession that is noteworthy in this day when so many athletes (I think) are spoiled, narcissistic, grown up children. Link - ( New Window )
M@
@MattSpiegel670
·
7m
Have heard now from 2 different sources that the Cubs and Marcus Stroman are hot and heavy in discussion right now. Would absolutely love that signing.
"Ranking the 10 biggest Mets free agent signings of all time"
It hasn't been confirmed @mets want a manager with experience but if they do, it does narrow down the potential names they would need to ask for permission to speak to. Showalter, Bochy, Shildt, Ausmus, Scioscia are all "free".
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
what I heard from Scherzer, though I do think he was part of the decision to go to the Dodgers vs. the NL East. Chelsea Janes covered the Nationals 2014-2018 and was close (and very high) on Scherzer as a person but she flat out said speaking to him that he thought his aches and pains (non-arm) would be better suited somewhere that wasn't cold (headed into FA).
"At that time, Scherzer was dealing with a variety of small injuries that left him wanting to pitch in warm weather to keep his body as loose as possible and minimize the risk of turning sore spots into real concerns."
guess is Scherzer said he wanted to go somewhere warm, and the Nats weren't going to trade him to the Mets/Braves so both sides were on the same page but for different reasons.
RE: interesting that the not going to NY thing came from the Nats
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
In fairness, Scherzer noted he didn't know Escobar, he said he trusted what ex-Met (briefly) Brian Dozier said about him. I'm not in any way doubting Escobar is a good guy/teammate just clarifying Scherzer himself wasn't vouching for him.
"At that time, Scherzer was dealing with a variety of small injuries that left him wanting to pitch in warm weather to keep his body as loose as possible and minimize the risk of turning sore spots into real concerns."
it's possible but that seems like a less significant reason than the LAD just being in a better position to potentially win a WS as the defending champs. Temperature wise NY is more volatile but having lived in both LA isn't dramatically warmer and probably consistently cooler in the evenings because it's dry.
what I heard from Scherzer, though I do think he was part of the decision to go to the Dodgers vs. the NL East. Chelsea Janes covered the Nationals 2014-2018 and was close (and very high) on Scherzer as a person but she flat out said speaking to him that he thought his aches and pains (non-arm) would be better suited somewhere that wasn't cold (headed into FA).
+1. Me too, Dan. I'm very impressed with Scherzer, the person. To me, that's more important than anything else.
I understand this is a sports website, and we're discussing athletes, but to me, there is a wider world that is more important than just one aspect of someone's life.
RE: RE: RE: interesting that the not going to NY thing came from the Nats
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
In fairness, Scherzer noted he didn't know Escobar, he said he trusted what ex-Met (briefly) Brian Dozier said about him. I'm not in any way doubting Escobar is a good guy/teammate just clarifying Scherzer himself wasn't vouching for him.
Yes, you're right, Dan. Thanks for the clarification.
I think my fav comment is Eppler's about doubling down on leadership
how it's not a question of being deficient or having enough but always doubling down and building more strength.
how many times in the last 10, 20, 30 years has this franchise "had enough" of 1 thing or another and not added more only to end up in short supply of what they thought they had enough of? literally happened this year with what Zack called a "special clubhouse" that simply...wasn't.
usually by the time you realize you dont have enough of something it's too late. So love the idea of constantly doubling down and adding value. Nothing is ever stable so you are either getting better or getting worse.
Also aside from the team I really liked Scherzer's comments on the PA and making the game better. Understanding how he got his contracts because of the ones signed before the ones he's signed. Just seems like a guy who really gets it.
name I'm curious about as a potential manager (hold off on the "I don't want a first time manager") simply names that haven't been one...Don Kelly sounds like a very interesting candidate. FO experience, recently an explayer, went from player in 2016, to scout 2017, 1b coach, then bench coach... quite the quick rise.
the Escobar comment is less relevant to Scherzer but his general rep
pro athletes are no different than us - as with any job opportunity the first thing you do if you can is ask someone you know who has experience there. Escobar seems to be a guy people think highly of.
how it's not a question of being deficient or having enough but always doubling down and building more strength.
how many times in the last 10, 20, 30 years has this franchise "had enough" of 1 thing or another and not added more only to end up in short supply of what they thought they had enough of? literally happened this year with what Zack called a "special clubhouse" that simply...wasn't.
usually by the time you realize you dont have enough of something it's too late. So love the idea of constantly doubling down and adding value. Nothing is ever stable so you are either getting better or getting worse.
Also aside from the team I really liked Scherzer's comments on the PA and making the game better. Understanding how he got his contracts because of the ones signed before the ones he's signed. Just seems like a guy who really gets it.
Eric, I think what you wrote is so interesting.
"you are either getting better or getting worse."
2nd law of thermodynamics (see below link).
"as energy is transferred or transformed, more and more of it is wasted."
As you noted, doubling down and adding value is crucial.
his thought process and the level of detail he went through thinking about why his body didn't respond the way he thought it would is why he's world class.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
3m
Marcus Semien described Ron Washington as “the most influential baseball man in my life,” moments ago during his introductory press conference in Arlington. @MLBNetwork
@Rangers
@Braves
RE: hearing Scherzer's post-mortem re the dead arm is facsinating
his thought process and the level of detail he went through thinking about why his body didn't respond the way he thought it would is why he's world class.
His claims don't REALLY hold up as he apparently was allowed to throw 92+ pitches in all but 2 starts, 1 he got hurt and the other was impacted by a rain delay.
and he has the added benefit of having come from a division rival, but I am still skeptical they will pull the trigger on him.
I have my doubts as well but I think he'd be a home run. Success in Texas, coaching with 2 well regarded/winning franchises (Oakland/Atl) and players absolutely love him (despite not being a pushover). Hate to make the comparison because it's not based on race but the same way the players love Dusty Baker but he also is a hardass.
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
2m
Mets president Sandy Alderson and Mets GM Billy Eppler will introduce Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha via Zoom today at 6:00 pm.
RE: Scherzer had 19 starts with the Nationals, 11 with the Dodgers
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Superutilityman Chris Taylor and the Los Angeles Dodgers are making progress on a deal, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN. It’s expected to be completed today.
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
i'm surprised he'd make the comment with that being the case. a little odd but maybe there's more to it than we know. maybe LAD were pushing him to rest over the last month and he didn't want to, but there were small accommodations he made but didn't agree with?
ex. his starts on 9/6 and 9/12 he had pitched 8 innings without allowing earned runs but wasn't allowed to finish either game. On 9/12 in particular he had 92 pitches and was on a 1 hitter with 0 walks and up 8-0.
Also not sure if this was impacted by rain delays but he had several starts in Sept 6 days apart instead of 5.
9/6 + 9/12
9/12 + 9/18
9/23 + 2/29
I'd be a hypocrite if I said I didn't agree with the Dodgers trying to rest him though. Maybe there was a better way to do it strategically?
Also I guess we can throw out the 6 man rotation ideas lol.
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
i'm surprised he'd make the comment with that being the case. a little odd but maybe there's more to it than we know. maybe LAD were pushing him to rest over the last month and he didn't want to, but there were small accommodations he made but didn't agree with?
ex. his starts on 9/6 and 9/12 he had pitched 8 innings without allowing earned runs but wasn't allowed to finish either game. On 9/12 in particular he had 92 pitches and was on a 1 hitter with 0 walks and up 8-0.
Also not sure if this was impacted by rain delays but he had several starts in Sept 6 days apart instead of 5.
9/6 + 9/12
9/12 + 9/18
9/23 + 2/29
I'd be a hypocrite if I said I didn't agree with the Dodgers trying to rest him though. Maybe there was a better way to do it strategically?
Also I guess we can throw out the 6 man rotation ideas lol.
Mike Petriello
@mike_petriello
·
3h
Not really buying Scherzer's argument that not letting him go deeper in reg season hurt him later.
He made 11 starts for LA. 9 times: 92+ pitches. Other two? Big rain delay; injured hammy.
I am *definitely* buying that Scherzer wants SP in general to be allowed to go deeper.
Mike Petriello
@mike_petriello
·
3h
Also worth noting, I think that he's a 36 year old who had his innings jump from 67.1 in 2020 to 179.1 in 2021.
But Max as a defender of all SP, totally get that, and have no problem with it.
"very much involved" per Eppler. I won't be debating Sandy any further now that there is a GM in place but it's clear Sandy is and always was going to remain a very active part of the baseball side. Quite possibly with a GM in place with the energy to do the day to day stuff that will end up being a great thing but it was always hard to believe and Eppler flat out confirmed it.
The Mets are really in a great position to work with the A's/Reds who in my view have 6 SP that could really help. The Mets have cost controlled MLBer's as well as the ability to take back "bad money" and yes, if need be some prospects that can be spared in the right deal
im a big believer that pitching is high risk and the more you pitch the more risk you take.
just saying the overall numbers are one thing but I no issue believing that the LAD may have had conversations with him about taking the foot off the gas in September. He very easily could have wanted to stay in games 1 inning longer.
aren't we the same people who in this thread were suggesting a 6 man rotation for all next year to keep him fresh? it stands to reason he has heard all sorts of people (LAD included) suggest stuff like that and disagreed with it.
im a big believer that pitching is high risk and the more you pitch the more risk you take.
just saying the overall numbers are one thing but I no issue believing that the LAD may have had conversations with him about taking the foot off the gas in September. He very easily could have wanted to stay in games 1 inning longer.
aren't we the same people who in this thread were suggesting a 6 man rotation for all next year to keep him fresh? it stands to reason he has heard all sorts of people (LAD included) suggest stuff like that and disagreed with it.
Because he's known as an absolute maniac of a competitor known to scream into his glove in the dug out INNINGS after being pulled. His velocity was in fact down towards the end of the season and none of his pitch counts suggest they were using him significantly less. He had a dead arm, easier to blame something like "I wanted to throw more" than "I'm 36 and I threw a LOT more innings in 2021".
FIP was 1.96 with LAD, 3.60 with Washington. So who used him better? It just doesn't compute. He was BETTER with the Dodgers. If the idea was they were trying to rest him a little more.. it worked. His better pitching and "less pitches" (again, doesn't show up at all in the pitch counts) = why he had a dead arm? Doesn't make any sense.
Because he's known as an absolute maniac of a competitor known to scream into his glove in the dug out INNINGS after being pulled. His velocity was in fact down towards the end of the season and none of his pitch counts suggest they were using him significantly less. He had a dead arm, easier to blame something like "I wanted to throw more" than "I'm 36 and I threw a LOT more innings in 2021".
no disagreement but he could be right. it's chicken or the egg. he blames not throwing as much, we'd probably say it was just age + workload.
what i like about the story is less what happened but more that whatever happened he's still clearly bothered by it and obsessed enough to want to find out why and what he could have done differently. Marcus Stroman only has that level of obsession with twitter.
genuinely don't care about twitter antics (or even jerky players) but yeah, Stroman took it to the next level. (Even then I still happily would have taken him back) but he's hyper sensitive.
Evan Drellich
@EvanDrellich
·
42m
Some details: MLB offered to raise 1st luxury tax tier to $214m, peaking at $220m
MLBPA free agency proposal:
Year 1 of deal, no change, 6 years service to become FA
Years 2-3: 6 years—or if age 30 1/2 & 5 years of service
Years 4-5: 6 years—or if age 29 1/2 & 5 years service
genuinely don't care about twitter antics (or even jerky players) but yeah, Stroman took it to the next level. (Even then I still happily would have taken him back) but he's hyper sensitive.
this is a guess based mostly on his opt out and his comments in the last few weeks, but i think he is the antithesis of Scherzer.
Scherzer talked about the guys who set precedents before him that helped him get his contract.
Stroman has put down just about every other FA SP to prove that he's better and should get more. Including Thor, Gausman, and Matz who I believe were all his teammates at one time or another!
Scherzer has pitched through a million injuries and was willing to try coming out of the BP for LAD.
Stroman opted out because he pulled his calf and didn't want to injure himself further ahead of FA.
The decision to bring Stroman back isn't a contest between him and Scherzer but I think I'd just move on. Those types of things aren't lost on anyone in the clubhouse.
Don’t actually believe Stroman is even on the Mets radar. I’m just saying if he were back I’d be happy to have him as the #3. They have plenty of options out there however
not the Mets, I like him as a buy low but not on a 3 year gamble. Pass
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Yusei Kikuchi has 3-year offers. Mets, Jays are interested though their specific offers are unknown. Kikuchi was thought to have gambled by opting out of $13M for 1 year after a year in which he was an All-Star in the first half before struggling late.
I'm not anti-Kikuchi overall but 3 years is too steep. As noted yesterday, interesting @mets are interested given his era vs. Eppler's angels was near 11 (not exaggerating) #Mets
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets, Angels and Padres are among many teams to have shown interest in star free agent Kris Bryant, whose marketing is now percolating, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Astros among others who have checked in.
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
RE: RE: Can somebody make me a believer in Kikuchi?
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Ok good. Thought I was losing it. lol
Im a believer that the backend is actually pretty well hedged with Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and eventually Lucchesi. You can even hopefully throw Hill into that mix as depth too assuming we can re-sign him. Those arent great options but as fill-ins or 5th SP types I think they'll do. Where I feel we are not hedged is the TOR. deGrom is a ?, Sherzer's age is up there, and we have no idea what Carrasco will do. Adding a high end option like Rodon (risks and all) just makes a lot more sense for me.
likely going to be strictly out of the pen if he makes it back. 12 months would be June. Average TJ now for starters is closer to 16, RP 12-14. Can't really see him being able to come back,head to the minors, throw 4-5 innings rehabbing and be ready.
Despite his solid start to the season and top-notch velocity from the left side, Kikuchi isn’t quite the appealing upside play you might imagine. His Statcast numbers show that when batters hit the ball against Kikuchi this year, they absolutely hammered it. The 91.9 mile per hour average exit velocity against him was the worst in baseball, and 47% of the balls hit against him were 95 and up (second worst in the game). As such, the fact that Kikuchi allowed more than a fifth of his flyballs to leave the yard can’t be waved away as a fluke.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
I like all 3 of the A's SP AND all 3 of the Reds SP. Rather not lock themselves into Kikuchi for 3 years when there will be other options.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
1m
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
yea sounds like our 6 man dream isn't gonna fly with mad max.
all the more reason to get as good of a pitcher as they can without giving up too much in trade cost. i'm with you on 1 of the oak/cincy 6, though my preference would be for whoever we can get without giving up McNeil or Mauricio. Dom if we must but try to get a 2nd depth pitcher back. Someone else's Megill or Trevor Williams (with an option).
and Montas would cost the most of the 6 because they have the most years remaining. I'd assume Gray would be next given his track record, and followed by Maneaea and then Bassitt but really just confident that Castillo/Montas would cost the most.
the guys with 1 year left should definitely be the cheapest
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6s
Dodgers’ deal with Chris Taylor, per major-league source: Four years, $60M with fifth-year option that can increase the total value to $73M.
Deesha
@DeeshaThosar
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
Confirmed with the team. Mets have to jump through some licensing hoops/red tape before they can make it official. These are the unofficial, official jersey numbers.
id contribute to a gofundme if it helps get freeman out of the NL east
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Right-hander Nick Martinez and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $20 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Martinez, 31, starred for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan this year (1.62 ERA) and gets opt-outs after first and second year.
Typical Chain Bloom/Rays type move. JBJ only makes $2 million more than Renfroe this year. ($8 million buyout, $12 million next year for Bradley, and arbitration for Renfroe)
From what I've read about Renfroe, he was not good defensively, with the exception of throwing out runners. Although he had 31 HRs in a career year last year, he had a .315 OBP. Had a 2.3 WAR. Bradley was atrocious last year, but every year before that had a WAR of at least 2 with the Red Sox for the past 6 years.
A lot of fans upset about trading a 31 HR guy for a .160 hitter. But realistically, if last year was an aberration for JBJ, you are trading similarly valued players (though their skills are very different).
From the Sox perspective, they are getting possibly similarly valued players, but one that may fit them better. JBJ can mentor Duran in playing CF defense at Fenway. They have Duran, JBJ, Verdugo, and Kike to patrol the OF, and they get two good looking prospects out of the deal: a speedy IF and a strong hitting corner IF
adds defense and JBJ now in a walk year in a ballpark he's hit in before, and added some prospects to do it. Binelas looks like a real prospect too. 3rd round college 3b picked last year who mashed a .636 slg% in his brief debut (that was about his career slg% at Louisville too).
are ok taking that out of the CBA so going forward that probably won't be an issue.
was thinking a good replacement system for that would be making it more like the NFL comp pick structure where the sandwich picks get awarded but nobody loses their natural picks.
I think it would also be cool if they changed the rules on who qualifies for comp picks.
Ex. they should incentivize low budget teams to sign affordable but non minimum veterans to 1 year deals because those are the fringe guys who inevitably get squeezed the most and lose jobs because of the non-competitive teams at the bottom of the league who are just looking to maximize earnings/draft capital.
if you got a comp pick for any non-minimum FA you lose who gets a multi-year deal elsewhere that would incentivize the low budget teams of the world to try to sign those less in demand vets in hopes that they put up bounce back seasons and move on the following year to bring them back a comp pick. the bigger the deal the higher the comp pick.
that aligns getting more draft capital with signing more/better low to mid level FA. the top of the market FA are obviously doing fine bc the big market teams are spending.
2023 is a mutual option at $12 million for JBJ. $8 million buyout.
he was terrible last year but in his last 6 straight years in bos he was worth at least 1.5 fwar and averaged more like 2.5 (he went over 2 in 4 of his last 5).
the only reason he'd do the buy out next year is if he has a monster year and thinks he can get a much bigger deal so they are pretty well hedged no matter which way he performs - unless he completely tanks like last year.
if he plays both years he gets about $21m, and likely produces at least 3 or 4 fwar which would make it a slight surplus value.
if he opts out the buyout would bring his total to $17m for 1 year but he likely only does that if he has a big year, which would be more than 2 fwar so again they'd have surplus value.
the tanking scenario is possible but he has so much of his value in defense he starts with 1 leg up.
adding Correa and shifting Boegarts to 3b/Devers to 1b would take that team to another level. they are close to their payroll from last year so presumably they'd only do that if the LTT goes up.
I'm not complaining, as the Mets benefit. But look at the Mets season so far. They gain Scherzer, Escobar, Canha, Marte.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
yup, in a way it even penalizes them too because they'd probably end up with lesser picks than the 2 they are getting for Thor/Conforto since those deals are going to be a lot less than what they spent on scherzer. Depending on how they do it.
but net-net would still be a good trade off for big market teams because on the positive side they could have been more active on Robbie Ray and all the others who got QO's.
it would add in a whole new avenue though for the Reds/Marlins of the world to add draft capital though. Make smart 1 year signings of quality players who can go on to multi-year deals and you get more draft picks. And those teams become more competitive in the process. Win-win for the game.
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
The Red Sox either felt comfortable with simply exchanging medicals (which is allowed but less common) or both players had their physicals prior to the deadline. Because JBJ is an ex Red Sox my guess is it's the first one.
presumably the physicals will happen post lock like some of the FA
I think verlander's deal wasn't announced officially yet for whatever reason so that won't be final until later and someone signed last night a few hours before the deadline and they said the physical won't happen until post-lockout.
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
The Red Sox either felt comfortable with simply exchanging medicals (which is allowed but less common) or both players had their physicals prior to the deadline. Because JBJ is an ex Red Sox my guess is it's the first one.
Yeah, but there are two sides to it, and Renfroe is not an ex-Brewer and there are two prospects.
anyway not a big deal, seems inconsistent.
RE: presumably the physicals will happen post lock like some of the FA
I think verlander's deal wasn't announced officially yet for whatever reason so that won't be final until later and someone signed last night a few hours before the deadline and they said the physical won't happen until post-lockout.
The Verlander stuff is odd, but presumably he had a physical prior to the lock out. If he didn't, yeah he'd have to wait for the move to be consummated.
so they likely exchanged medicals. I'm not really clear what your question is I guess? The trade has gone through so the lockout would have no impact on them. They won't be having physicals during the lockout. Clearly, the medical stuff on that trade was figured out prior to midnight or the league wouldn't have announced the move.
"Gabe Lacques
@GabeLacques
Rob Manfred, on free agency after five years, says the "most negative reaction we have is when a player leaves in free agency."
Left unsaid: The massive spike in energy, ticket sales, etc. when a free agent arrives."
Yeah... that's the only way this goes, not the excitement for a team/fanbase like Texas ADDING a Corey Seager. Boo hoo.
is it really any different than the trade deadline? mets got cespedes
like 20 minutes before the deadline and it was announced even though presumably there was no physical. and obviously they had gone through the whole gomez thing so for trades exchanging medicals is probably sufficient whereas any new contract needs a new physical to be official.
like 20 minutes before the deadline and it was announced even though presumably there was no physical. and obviously they had gone through the whole gomez thing so for trades exchanging medicals is probably sufficient whereas any new contract needs a new physical to be official.
no different, so players should still be able to be traded- *if* the reason they can't be traded is a physical when clearly no physicals happened for the trade consummated late last night.
RE: RE: is it really any different than the trade deadline? mets got cespedes
like 20 minutes before the deadline and it was announced even though presumably there was no physical. and obviously they had gone through the whole gomez thing so for trades exchanging medicals is probably sufficient whereas any new contract needs a new physical to be official.
no different, so players should still be able to be traded- *if* the reason they can't be traded is a physical when clearly no physicals happened for the trade consummated late last night.
Jim Bowden was the one who noted the physicals. Teams in theory (I guess) can waive physicals but there won't be trades announced during the lockout. Teams talking? Of course they will. What exactly is the advantage to "making" trades that can't be made official? Another team can still step in and make that move. It's not official until it is.
At this point, it’s unclear why the deal was not officially inked before the CBA expired and there’s no reason to suspect that it’s in any sort of jeopardy. However, it is at least noteworthy that it will apparently remain in a state of limbo as long as the lockout continues."
Again, pretty weird but unless there is a signing bonus, he's not seeing that money until the season opens anyway. No off-season paychecks. + Justin Verlander has savings I'm sure lol. But if it's not official, hypothetically the Astros could back out of the deal.
for new contracts clearly there need to be physicals.
for trades it's not mandated. they can exchange physicals or presumably in some situations they can do physicals.
but it's also different CBA by CBA because remember Caris Levert got traded and the mandatory physical caught his tumor.
so probably just a quirk of baseball's CBA since they play every day and wanted to be able to fast track stuff if they were willing to. teams can obviously trade for injured players if they want too.
issue with a pretty significant impact. The players have proposed 5 big league seasons OR 29.5 (whichever comes first). The owners want 29.5. Why is this a big deal? Juan Soto would be 1 year from FA. He'd hit FA at 24 years old. That contract would be NUTS. 15 years 40 per? No clue but wow.
Going to a balance system based upon net of contracts signed, NL DH, playoff expansion, change of pace improvements (ie stay in effing batters box), salary cap floor, firmer salary peak with provisions to increase, trading of draft picks, some sort of change to arbitration where the pay is more commiserate with performance, no ability to manipulate player control, ability to franchise a player once at an average of 3 highest players in their position are all things that will never happen but should.
They need to figure out a way to keep stars in their cities and increase competition for the league to ever be viable long term. Right now baseball only exists for half of the teams in the league and that’s a bad place to be.
Going to a balance system based upon net of contracts signed, NL DH, playoff expansion, change of pace improvements (ie stay in effing batters box), salary cap floor, firmer salary peak with provisions to increase, trading of draft picks, some sort of change to arbitration where the pay is more commiserate with performance, no ability to manipulate player control, ability to franchise a player once at an average of 3 highest players in their position are all things that will never happen but should.
They need to figure out a way to keep stars in their cities and increase competition for the league to ever be viable long term. Right now baseball only exists for half of the teams in the league and that’s a bad place to be.
Kyle Glaser
@KyleAGlaser
Regarding whether the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft will be made up at a later date: The only status is "it is postponed indefinitely."
I was told pick trading is expected to be part of the new CBA and there isn't much push back against it from either side. There will be stipulations put in place (presumably something similar to the Stepien rule)
I kind of doubt they will give in even on over-agers because that becomes a slippery slope in the future. But it makes sense to have a max age for FA for over-aged players with 5 years of service time.
ultimately I expect they will give the players a bunch of other stuff they want (drop draft pick comp, increase LTT, universal DH, etc) and the 5 vs. 6 years will be a future fight. Could see a salary floor going either way.
DH is not viewed by the players as a "major" issue. It only creates X amount of jobs. It's going to happen, but the only reason it didn't this season was the upcoming CBA and slippery slope of giving things up prior to the talks.
there aren't many major issues that's why the lockout is stupid
Universal DH is probably the most visible in game issue from a fan perspective though so it's not insignificant for either side because both are going to claim it as a win for the game.
the owners seem ready to give in on raising LTT / eliminating draft comp so those are 2 big issues mostly diffused.
payroll floor and service time to FA are probably the entire negotiation.
I say "major issue", I merely mean one in which either side sees there being much to discuss or disagree with. The players don't think it's a major "plus" and the owners know it's not a major "give". There will be a universal DH. 99% chance.
this would be abnormal, but it would be great if the Mets were very public about their managerial search and staff hirings just to keep things interesting.
I know many probably preferred the GM/PBO search stayed more off the grid and that made a lot of sense given the nature of that search, the fact that targets were under contract, and timing.
this situation is the opposite. most of the candidates are available right now and known. the team is in a positive place in terms of PR/fan excitement for next year. Obviously do it in a way that's respectful of the candidates but no need to be overly cloak and dagger. Especially once they make the managerial hire - would be really cool to get a behind the scenes look of the staff getting assembled and hearing about the new org philosophies/culture they are trying to build.
Done right it could be really good PR to help generate even more interest from current free agents. It was obvious on yesterday's zoom that Marte/Canha/Escobar especially were really excited to be here and be part of a team that's been so active so far. There were FA last year who were openly campaigning to have the chance to player here (walker was 1 of them) so I'd have to think that could be even more the case now after Scherzer.
When baseball resumes, I wouldn't mind @Mets signing Adonis Medina to a minor league deal. A former consensus top 100 prospect, and he's still only 24 Link - ( New Window )
for anyone who hasn't listed to Eppler's WFAN interview yesterday it's
1. the #1 thing he wanted a commitment from Cohen on was the ability to build the culture across every level of the FO from the top down "to do things the right way not the easy way". Talked about how important it is to support the people in the organization and help them grow their careers with the resources they need to succeed, etc.
2. sort of goes hand in had with #1, but said Cohen has basically told him that he can have whatever resources he needs for anything as long as he can make the case for how it helps the team win. whether it's FO, staffing, spending on players, etc. Cohen will invest in whatever they can make a case for. Mets GM Billy Eppler talks Max Scherzer, manager search with Carton and Roberts - ( New Window )
Carton/Roberts asked Eppler whether they still would have pursued Max if Gausman had accepted their offer. Eppler was a little bit evasive but did say it was "not an either/or" situation.
To me, that suggests they will go after another front line pitcher, such as Rodon. Or possibly a free agent hitter and then look to trade for a pitcher.
is probably the last SP (FA wise) you can even squint and call "front line". In fact, even amongst the Oakland/Reds group, it's really just Castillo. I'm assuming Clayton Kershaw isn't going to be a Met in this analysis.
been banging the drum for both Bassitt and Montas but Montas has one full season under his belt and Bassitt's 2021 is easily his best. Montas in theory "could" be that good. But Sonny Gray (while good) isn't a FL starter (3.99 FIP in 2021, 3.69 career, projected 4.01 and 32 this season), Manaea certainly isn't either, and Mahle (who I like) isn't either.
I'm unfamiliar with the FA/posting rules of the CBPL but this kid Hsu Jo-hsi looks NASTY. Struck out 98 over 81 innings as a 20 year old rookie. Reportedly touched triple digits, short RHP... delivery reminds me a bit of Pedro/David Cone. Looks ridiculous
I don't think he's a better fit than Baez so I don't see them being willing to much higher than that if they weren't for baez. he's almost a year older, far less positive impact on D, and the lineup is presently pretty right handed so while he'd add another run producer they'd likely lose McNeil whose career RC isn't far off Bryant's anyway.
steamer doesn't project Bryant (114 rc) much beyond McNeil (114) or Escobar (100) and he'd be a lot more expensive. Baez carried enormous defensive value add plus his offense last year as a met was better than those projections, which probably holds more weight to them than any projections.
for reference MLBTR has bryant pegged at 6 years 160m
which honestly seems a little nutty to me. he's versatile on D but not really great anywhere. And he had a nice bounce back but still below his career average and the 2nd worst year of the rest of his 7 year career (the worst being the covid short year).
last year I believe the rumor (martino?) was the mets had a standing offer for him that was basically swapping him for JDD. I'd imagine they could have just as easily targeted him over Baez at the deadline if they wanted also so not sure white whale is exactly right.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Mets were willing to trade JD David for Bryant in January. No reason to think that would change.
11:10 AM · Jul 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Apparently was aggressive on Schwarber before the lockout. He’s apparently asking for 3 for 60. Also Marlins related, Boston thought they had a deal done for Stallings but Miami swooped in. Interesting in light of Vazquez being in Boston
Apparently was aggressive on Schwarber before the lockout. He’s apparently asking for 3 for 60. Also Marlins related, Boston thought they had a deal done for Stallings but Miami swooped in. Interesting in light of Vazquez being in Boston
And Shecky's favorite Plawecki.
I think Bryant has gone from over-valued to under-valued
Are we ever going to see 2016 Kris Bryant? Probably not.
But I think he will be a solid.850 OPS guy over the next 3-4 years.
I watched him a lot with Giants and what I noticed about his defense is that it got better when he stayed at the same position. So he is not a McNeil where you can move him game to game. But he does give you a guy who can play all the corner positions and handle CF for a month or two if Marte goes down. IMO he is a somewhat better CFer than Nimmo (though Nimmo was definitely getting better)
Apparently was aggressive on Schwarber before the lockout. He’s apparently asking for 3 for 60. Also Marlins related, Boston thought they had a deal done for Stallings but Miami swooped in. Interesting in light of Vazquez being in Boston
I think he is a deal at 3/60. When he is hot, righties dont want to pitch to him. But you have to be absolutely sure the DH is coming to NL.
i'd rather add Schwarber for DH than Bryant at half the cost
Apparently was aggressive on Schwarber before the lockout. He’s apparently asking for 3 for 60. Also Marlins related, Boston thought they had a deal done for Stallings but Miami swooped in. Interesting in light of Vazquez being in Boston
I think he is a deal at 3/60. When he is hot, righties dont want to pitch to him. But you have to be absolutely sure the DH is coming to NL.
they are locked out until the CBA is resolved so they would know for sure either way.
RE: for anyone who hasn't listed to Eppler's WFAN interview yesterday it's
1. the #1 thing he wanted a commitment from Cohen on was the ability to build the culture across every level of the FO from the top down "to do things the right way not the easy way". Talked about how important it is to support the people in the organization and help them grow their careers with the resources they need to succeed, etc.
2. sort of goes hand in had with #1, but said Cohen has basically told him that he can have whatever resources he needs for anything as long as he can make the case for how it helps the team win. whether it's FO, staffing, spending on players, etc. Cohen will invest in whatever they can make a case for. Mets GM Billy Eppler talks Max Scherzer, manager search with Carton and Roberts - ( New Window )
Eppler:
“We can be opportunistic,” Eppler said. “We still have some rom here to do that…that kind of shows that Steve and Alex’s commitment to putting a great team on the field and giving us the resources,..."
is there a chance that bryant/rodon/whoever has a huge year next year and makes it look obvious in hindsight that they should have been aggressive for them now? Sure.
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
is there a chance that bryant/rodon/whoever has a huge year next year and makes it look obvious in hindsight that they should have been aggressive for them now? Sure.
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
Eric, thanks for posting a link to that interview. He said what I hoped he would say, that they're opportunistic, and if I'm reading him right, maybe they're still not finished.
they definitely don't seem finished and that's the 2nd interview
is there a chance that bryant/rodon/whoever has a huge year next year and makes it look obvious in hindsight that they should have been aggressive for them now? Sure.
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
Eric, thanks for posting a link to that interview. He said what I hoped he would say, that they're opportunistic, and if I'm reading him right, maybe they're still not finished.
Thanks again, Eric. Your point is well taken, that anything further may come via a trade; and they have some pieces with which to facilitate that.
I think it's the right fit at the right time and would be kind of surprised if it doesn't happen since he's also got a lot of shared history with Eppler.
fringe benefit is that he's old enough you might be able to attract a really high quality young bench coach on the idea that they could be the manager of the future.
I'm still shocked that Buck is only 65 though. I think it's equal parts that he predated Torre (who's 81) and his seinfeld ep was early enough that the yankees were still kind of a punchline. both seem like ancient history.
here's a puzzle piece that many have connected and could impact NYM
The trade destination for A’s first baseman Matt Olson very well could be tied to the outcome of Freddie Freeman’s free agency. Olson is a native of Lilburn, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta. He likely would be the Braves’ No. 1 target if Freeman departs for the Yankees or Dodgers, the teams believed to be most interested in him. The A’s, though, will be in a position of great leverage, drawing interest in Olson not just from clubs that miss out on Freeman, but others as well.
It hardly qualifies as news that the Braves explored first-base alternatives such as Olson and free agent Anthony Rizzo in November while Freeman lingered on the open market; Freeman, at the moment, is not a member of their team. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to do his due diligence, and make sure he can react quickly the moment he senses Freeman might depart.
Olson, who will play next season at 28 and is under club control through 2023, would seem almost an ideal replacement, if necessary. He had more home runs than Freeman (39 to 31) and a higher OPS-plus (153 to 133) last season, and also won Gold Gloves at first in 2018 and ’19. Of course, Olson does not have the same history with the Braves that Freeman does, and would cost the team top prospects, as opposed to just money.
Most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves. Yet, his return no longer can be viewed as inevitable. One rival executive says the fact Freeman remains unsigned is a “slap in the face,” considering that he is a homegrown talent who won the NL MVP in 2020 and helped the team win the World Series in ’21. For Freeman, a native of Orange County, Ca., the Dodgers (or Angels) would appear a more natural fit than the Yankees. But just as the Braves are envisioning how they might replace him, he surely is envisioning what it might be like playing for a team other than the Braves.
At this point, how can he not be?
Freeman is from Socal (just south of LA) so I'd guess the LAD are the bigger threat, especially if they and the Yankees together bid each other up way beyond ATL.
Then if the A's deal Olson to whoever misses out that opens up a destination for Dom Smith. 3 years of him and some $ savings for 1 of their pitchers seems like a good fit and we know the 2 organizations have a lot of familiarity with each other. Eppler was in that division so he's very familiar with them. Sandy was in their organization for a couple years. Similar to Canha it may be that they have a stronger appreciation for one of their guys than others do. I like Dom but he's a replaceable piece. There are a lot of other options to backup 1b and COF, and they can likely sign a stronger LH DH (like Schwarber).
list of preliminary managerial candidates (link to full article below):
Quote:
...Through league sources, we were able to assemble most of the team’s preliminary list. The team has discussed other names internally, so additional candidates could yet emerge.
To be clear, this is not the list of people who the Mets have contacted or will definitely interview; it’s the list of people in whom the Mets have some level of preliminary interest:
Houston Astros bench coach Joe Espada
Veteran manager Buck Showalter
Tampa Bay bench coach Matt Quatraro
Pittsburgh bench coach Don Kelly
Former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus...
name I'm curious about as a potential manager (hold off on the "I don't want a first time manager") simply names that haven't been one...Don Kelly sounds like a very interesting candidate. FO experience, recently an explayer, went from player in 2016, to scout 2017, 1b coach, then bench coach... quite the quick rise.
Per @longenhagen Baty struggled with the bat in the AFL. " I’m actually leaving my Fall League look at Baty with more skepticism than I entered it. Really struggling to get the bat head out there and hit velo. "
I'm not as "Buck or bust" as many Mets fans but his age should be a non-factor. 7 managers were 60+ in 2021 including the managers of both WS teams. 12 managers were 55+
I'm not as "Buck or bust" as many Mets fans but his age should be a non-factor. 7 managers were 60+ in 2021 including the managers of both WS teams. 12 managers were 55+
100%. There are older coaches/managers in every sport. Trader Jack was like 80 when the Marlins won.
it seems like a strong list of guys they are talking to so doesn't seem like they can go wrong, but I do think Buck seems like the best all around fit. Eppler keeps talking about characteristics the team needs and my list would start with culture, leadership, stability, accountability. Buck stands out in those areas. His experience both in NY and generally being a successful manager in several different places also stands out.
Michael Mayer @mikemayer22
2m
I was told Granderson was on the list earlier today, along with David Wright. But I don’t believe either of them are in serious consideration.
Like Eppler said, it’s was initially a “wide list”.
I could see either one as a bench coach. Crazy that the only guy on the current roster either of them probably played with is JDG. Maybe Lugo or Familia (if he ends up back)?
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
· 11m
Curtis Granderson is on the Mets list of candidates for manager. The former Mets and Yankees star is now president of the Players Alliance. Was with Yankees when Billy Eppler was GM and Sandy Alderson signed him for the Mets. @ByRobertMurray 1st mentioned
J-Rod
@OfficialJohnRod
·
6m
Very Accurate. I was told days ago about Curtis Granderson being a Top Candidate for the @Mets
Manager Job indeed. Id be surprised if hes not a Finalist for the Managerial Gig. #Mets
Michael Mayer @mikemayer22
2m
I was told Granderson was on the list earlier today, along with David Wright. But I don’t believe either of them are in serious consideration.
Like Eppler said, it’s was initially a “wide list”.
I could see either one as a bench coach. Crazy that the only guy on the current roster either of them probably played with is JDG. Maybe Lugo or Familia (if he ends up back)?
Things change but as recently as February, Wright was said to be willing to return to a job in the organization but only in a part-time role
based on nothing but gut I dont think he's a serious candidate for the managing role or even the type to be a manager one day. Granderson seems more like a real managerial prospect for whatever reason.
But I can see their thinking if they went for it with him. There is a lot of potential there for a guy like Curtis to be a good manager I would think. Very smart, even tempered man who I've never heard anyone ever say anything bad about. Already proven he can handle the market and the media with no issue.
Pat Ragazzo
@ragazzoreport
·
1m
Can also confirm that David Wright is on the Mets’ wide list of managerial candidates but isn’t seen as a serious player for the job
Joe Espada and Buck Showalter are 2 names to watch in this
I have no clue regarding Granderson but Wright has long made clear he likes the idea of being involved but values his family time etc. I'm sure his leaving the organization was completely based on this. Should he ever return I suspect it wiill be again as an advisor and/or ST instructor
just my 2 cents but anyone who wants to be a great manager
should have no problem being willing to start as a bench coach. If being a great manager is a long term goal you have to start towards that pursuit somewhere and it will only make you a better more qualified manager/managerial candidate. Especially under a guy who has been manager of the year multiple times.
Eppler is anything like Cashman, my guess is Espada would be the favorite. Known for his ability (in part) to process the numbers and suggestions of the FO, strong communicator, yes, allows for collaboration with the FO (which is the norm now), Espada was actually a player when Sandy was in Oakland.
listening to Eppler he mentions stick michael a lot more than anyone
Which makes sense given his scouting background and the fact that he was a literal living legend. Buck literally came up through the yankees system promoted all the way through the big seat by Stick until Buck had his run in with big george.
Eppler was in NY obviously for a few years of Torre and then the hiring of Girardi (who had the 1 year managing FLA and won manager of the year).
At LAA he inherited Sciocsa but then made a very Girardi-esque hire with Ausmus.
Then Buck was a runner up to Maddon and some of the rumors were that Eppler preferred Buck.
He's been around all experienced managers and honestly most of them have done a pretty good job (Torre, Girardi, Sciocsa managed the 2 best years in LAA). And Sandy's last first timer hire obviously went real poorly.
So I think any first timer is going to have to really knock their socks off.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Curtis Granderson’s name came up in an internal Mets discussion about managerial possibilities because he is so highly respected — but he is not expected to interview. Mets feel they need someone in that job with more experience.
Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
With this update their org rankings board also updated (linked below) which imo is the most interesting of all the prospect rankings because they value the farm systems based on the overall $ value they attribute to the gradable prospect groups based on their ratings.
They have the Mets org:
15th overall in total value of prospects (209m)
3rd to last in total number of gradeable prospects (29)
2nd best in average value per prospect (7.2m per prospect)
so the top of the system is well above average and bottom well below.
of note the values of the top players are:
$55m - Alvarez (60 grade)
$46m - Baty + Mauricio (55 grade)
$21m - Allan (50 grade)
$6m/4m - Vientos, Ginn, Lee (45 grade)
(ramirez 40+ and plummer 40 would be next but plummer isn't listed in mets system)
some notable 40+ former mets (may be missing a few):
$21m - SWR (50 grade)
$6m - PCA (45 grade)
$3m - Wolf (40+ grade)
$2m - Greene (40 grade)
$2m - Valdez (40 grade)
if you added the former mets to the current mets the system would be top 10 and the count of gradeable prospects would still be a little below average but less so.
Some notable recent graduates Kelenic (60 grade, $55m), Megill (40 grade, $2m), and Gimenez (50 grade, $28m).
Bottomline Tramuta/Tanous have done a really good job identifying quality prospects so with all the draft capital they are set to have next year the system has a chance to get up to the top 10 since it's unlikely any of the top 4 graduate in 2022. Believe I saw recent estimate that had them 3rd in current bonus pool with the chance to end up 2nd if they get the extra pick from Conforto signing elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see if they take a top heavy approach and go for 2 or 3 stars (sort of like the Baty/Wolf/Allan group in 2019) or more of a quantity approach with 6 top 100 picks. Slot value for those 6 will likely average 1.5m per pick, which is close to the bonus amounts they paid SWR + Vientos as 2nd round picks. Preferable to add 6 players projected in the 45-50 grade range or 2 or 3 50+? In a vacuum i think i'd go quality > quantity but if you told me they could add 5+ SWR/Vientos' next year that's pretty appealing. fangraphs org rankings - ( New Window )
Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
With this update their org rankings board also updated (linked below) which imo is the most interesting of all the prospect rankings because they value the farm systems based on the overall $ value they attribute to the gradable prospect groups based on their ratings.
They have the Mets org:
15th overall in total value of prospects (209m)
3rd to last in total number of gradeable prospects (29)
2nd best in average value per prospect (7.2m per prospect)
so the top of the system is well above average and bottom well below.
of note the values of the top players are:
$55m - Alvarez (60 grade)
$46m - Baty + Mauricio (55 grade)
$21m - Allan (50 grade)
$6m/4m - Vientos, Ginn, Lee (45 grade)
(ramirez 40+ and plummer 40 would be next but plummer isn't listed in mets system)
some notable 40+ former mets (may be missing a few):
$21m - SWR (50 grade)
$6m - PCA (45 grade)
$3m - Wolf (40+ grade)
$2m - Greene (40 grade)
$2m - Valdez (40 grade)
if you added the former mets to the current mets the system would be top 10 and the count of gradeable prospects would still be a little below average but less so.
Some notable recent graduates Kelenic (60 grade, $55m), Megill (40 grade, $2m), and Gimenez (50 grade, $28m).
Bottomline Tramuta/Tanous have done a really good job identifying quality prospects so with all the draft capital they are set to have next year the system has a chance to get up to the top 10 since it's unlikely any of the top 4 graduate in 2022. Believe I saw recent estimate that had them 3rd in current bonus pool with the chance to end up 2nd if they get the extra pick from Conforto signing elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see if they take a top heavy approach and go for 2 or 3 stars (sort of like the Baty/Wolf/Allan group in 2019) or more of a quantity approach with 6 top 100 picks. Slot value for those 6 will likely average 1.5m per pick, which is close to the bonus amounts they paid SWR + Vientos as 2nd round picks. Preferable to add 6 players projected in the 45-50 grade range or 2 or 3 50+? In a vacuum i think i'd go quality > quantity but if you told me they could add 5+ SWR/Vientos' next year that's pretty appealing. fangraphs org rankings - ( New Window )
My feeling is quality > quantity if there is a significant difference between BPA and BPA that is signable until you have used up your pool. I will always take the option of tanking picks in the 8th through 10th rounds to draft BPA. As you start requiring higher picks to tank, I would need to see a much higher difference between BPA and BPA Signable. That was my concern about drafting Ginn. I thought it required too many picks to be tanked for someone I did not have as much better than signable options. On the other had, Allan was by far BPA. In 2021 Draft, even without knowing about Rocker's medicals, I thought Watson and House were at least on same tier as Rocker and would have gone for either of them rather than opening the bank for Rocker.
Agree Rocker was exciting but I think there’s a better use of $
Baty and Kelenic were under slot picks. Give me a solid 45+ grade HS position player with a plus hit tool and far fewer injury risks than any P, and even better if they come with the extra slot room to go over for a high upside arm later.
The current scouting group has proven they are really strong with that profile. I’m not sure Nimmo or Dom ever graded over 45/50 but they obviously worked out and Kelenic/Baty have. Cecchini was the only bust but I think he was closer to being a big leaguer than most. Just needed a little more d or a little more hit. The bigger miss was his intangibles bc they seemed to bury him quick a few times when they could have given him a longer look if they liked him. So I assume they didn’t like something about him.
will not be complete until we see where Rocker goes in this draft and how his career turns out.
So it will be a while, but hard to spin that as anything but a fuck up IMO.
Even if the Mets get a player who turns out better than Rocker in this draft.
They get the exact same pick and slot value so Rocker vs. whoever they pick in 22 is imo no different than any other player x vs. player y draft discussion. 1 will end up better than the other but that's just the nature of drafting, not necessarily a fuck up if Rocker ends up better or brilliant strategy if it's the other guy. the NYM scouts have been strong and in either instance they are going to take whoever they like best and cross fingers.
The fuck up was losing the wasted bonus pool saved on the other guys they signed under slot.
but:
1. picking Rocker because they liked him a lot
2. letting him go because they were worried about his medicals that they didn't have access to prior to selection
are both acceptable decisions.
They gave JT Ginn $3m even though he needed TJS so presumably there was something significant to pass on Rocker without negotiating when they clearly liked him a lot prior to the medicals.
gets picked this year, shows no health issues, and goes on and has a good major league career, no idea how you can do anything but see the Mets look bad.
If he doesn't and his injury proves to be what the Mets thought then the Mets were right, which is why I said the analysis of the Rocker pick is TBD.
However I thought in the latest CBA (2016) they allowed for pre-draft medicals.
gets picked this year, shows no health issues, and goes on and has a good major league career, no idea how you can do anything but see the Mets look bad.
If he doesn't and his injury proves to be what the Mets thought then the Mets were right, which is why I said the analysis of the Rocker pick is TBD.
However I thought in the latest CBA (2016) they allowed for pre-draft medicals.
Pre-draft medicals are optional. If you submit to MLB's centralized doctors a team has to offer I believe 40% of slot in order to receive a compensatory pick if eligible. If they don't submit, a team can offer no signing bonus and receive a compensatory pick if eligible.
submitting medical to teams is voluntary for the players/agents
boras and rocker chose not to. I'm not sure if that's a Boras policy for all his clients or something he and his clients decide case by case.
Quote:
As part of the new CBA, the top 50 pitching prospects in each year's draft will now be able to volunteer for MRIs to provide clarity about their health.
hopefully something they fix in the new cba because it's just a bad situation for both parties. Rocker has to wait a full year before getting a SB and is probably going to fall no matter what.
when the Mets were on the clock they obviously loved Rocker so they picked him.
im sure everyone involved preferred to not have their doctors find something once they got to the physical.
once they did though they didn't even make him an offer. the doctors may be right or wrong but that doesn't seem like what would happen if they didn't see a lot of risk. especially considering they'd already said they weren't planning on having him throw any more innings last summer. There's good and bad with the MLB's new voluntary MRI program for draft prospects - ( New Window )
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
· 10m
Mets executives won’t say that they had a clubhouse character problem last season. But they do admit they want to improve in that area next season.
Story: https://nwsdy.li/3lvscLR
Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
·
1m
I don’t believe it is a coincidence that the Mets haven’t brought back a single one of their pending free agents as of yet. And they may not at all.
all of a sudden you trust the Mets doctors got something right?
Your memory isn’t what you think it is.
I’ve never once questioned the HSS drs ability to read an MRI (I was 1 of the only ones who said there was zero chance they were lying about JDGs elbow being structurally sound).
The Mets decisions on player performance (rehab assignments, workload management, etc) are a totally different thing, and where they’ve most struggled. The HSS isn’t why Carrasco didn’t do any rehab starts in the minors before debuting.
all of a sudden you trust the Mets doctors got something right?
Your memory isn’t what you think it is.
I’ve never once questioned the HSS drs ability to read an MRI (I was 1 of the only ones who said there was zero chance they were lying about JDGs elbow being structurally sound).
The Mets decisions on player performance (rehab assignments, workload management, etc) are a totally different thing, and where they’ve most struggled. The HSS isn’t why Carrasco didn’t do any rehab starts in the minors before debuting.
You're the one who said regardless of what the medicals came back as you would rest players longer what the Mets did or leaked they planned to, you question the medical approach for players like Syndergaard and Carrasco (the two most recent who come to mind) constantly even to suggest it led to their re-injury/delayed return.
Yet, you're convinced these same doctors got Rocker right?
you don't seem to understand the difference between HSS and NYM
The hospital for special surgery is probably the top ortho / sports medicine hospital in the world. That's why basically every local pro team is affiliated with them and why for many different injuries the best pro athletes get the surgeries there. dr omalley was kevin durants surgeon long before he was a net. They employ the board certified imaging specialists and the board certified doctors who do the surgeries - not the Mets. The HSS's reputation and track record is as good as there is. That's why when their doctors put their name to a public diagnosis (as they did with JDG's elbow) I consider it tinfoil hat level absurdity to question it. I'd imagine one of their orthos are similarly the outsourced authority on decisions re: Daniel Jones right now too, not Ronnie Barnes.
Separate from the HSS the Mets employee their own team of physicians, trainers, PTs, performance team, sports science, etc who run the training programs, manage the rehabs/pt, and generally do probably 99.9% of the actual interacting with the players. Most if not all of those people aren't board certified doctors. Revamping that department is actually something BVW stated as one of his goals (like building the analytics team) though also like analytics it's unclear how much he was able to change beyond making quotes to the press because most of the people from the wilponzi era he inherited remained.
You can read the article below that quoted former head trainer Ray Ramirez (who they fired in 2018 and is not an MD) from this past June re: the scope of that group's daily involvement which he summed up with this quote.
Quote:
“But the trainer is doing everything in his power, everything in the staff’s power to get the players on the field as quickly as possible so that they can do what they do best.
and to put it plainly that right there is where the Mets have had issues going back decades going back to when they tried to make Reyes change how he runs. they haven't had problems with incorrect surgical diagnosis or botched procedures because that was outsourced and would have led to massive malpractice suits.
This is also an area where I think we can have hope Cohen's $ can make a big difference going forward. It didn't last year because we generally saw more of the same in the results because they had 3 key rehabs suffer major setbacks (2 that were non-surgical) but the size of the department has grown so presumably it's on the list of things they've been trying to upgrade. Former Mets trainer Ray Ramirez reacts to fan criticism over injuries - ( New Window )
I'm not confused on the difference about anything.
You seem to think team trainers I guess have sole discretion on a players rehab and treatment plan, not the doctor(s) who operated on them (Syndergaard) or treated them (Carrasco).
Who did the Mets have examine Rocker?
Here is Boras' statement and it will be pretty telling since Rocker allegedly has underwent no medical treatment, no surgeries, and no other specific procedure.
Quote:
"Kumar Rocker is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons," his representative, Scott Boras, said in a statement. "Immediately upon conclusion of his collegiate season, he had an MRI on both his shoulder and his elbow. When compared with his 2018 MRIs, the medical experts found no significant change. Kumar requires no medical attention and will continue to pitch in the regular course as he prepares to begin his professional career."
wow a scott boras quote defending his client with an unnamed expert
guess we can close up the thread and go home, that settles that.
a physical gets done by a doctor. MRIs get reviewed by doctors. the mets head trainer (brian chicklo) is not a licensed dr and neither is his boss who leads their performance team, so im pretty sure they are not the ones who veto'd signing Rocker (which the mets had no incentive to void unless there was a good reason).
since words aren't getting through let's try pictures.
I think this group with the letters "dr" in front of their names - almost all of whom are hss including altchek and the other 2 orthos - has track records we can trust on the medical decisions that require certified doctors involvement.
On performance issues separate from acute injuries handled by the drs I think this group on the other hand has a very spotty track record - some over long tenures in the organization.
You most definitely didn’t try to side swipe a gotcha because I made the audacious claim of trusting that the Mets - who were willing to use the 11th pick and pay 1m over slot for lunar rocker - let him walk for no good reason a week later after his physical.
Also not quite sure how youre in any way proving me wrong about something when I said Thor coming back ahead of the original schedule was a bad idea when it then went…badly.
My question was, isn't it very possibly the same doctors who came up with Syndergaard's rehab plan and return to throwing (that you did not trust) that examined Rocker (who you do trust).
or you just blame trainers when it suits you because you think a physical therapist or a trainer or coordinator would be left to make such important decisions as to a player returning from TJS.
And your quote about trainers trying to get players back on the field as soon as possible...isn't that their job?
Strange point to make and strange discussion, seems like any time I post something you launch into a diatribe about why you disagree.
I just don't have the time, energy, or desire to respond today. especially when I do not believe you are discussing it in good faith (for whatever reason) and no idea why you would mock that, but whatever.
My question was, isn't it very possibly the same doctors who came up with Syndergaard's rehab plan and return to throwing (that you did not trust) that examined Rocker (who you do trust).
or you just blame trainers when it suits you because you think a physical therapist or a trainer or coordinator would be left to make such important decisions as to a player returning from TJS.
And your quote about trainers trying to get players back on the field as soon as possible...isn't that their job?
Strange point to make and strange discussion, seems like any time I post something you launch into a diatribe about why you disagree.
I just don't have the time, energy, or desire to respond today. especially when I do not believe you are discussing it in good faith (for whatever reason) and no idea why you would mock that, but whatever.
Problem now is Gausman just signed with Toronto. Mets are in trouble if they miss on Scherzer.
If no Max, then I hope they can mend bridge with Stroman, sign Baez, Gray, and then trade for another starter with McNeil...
Yeah, I have always thought that's what it would take.
They are going to have to give Degrom 5 years when he opts out at the end of 2022.
Might as well go for it with both guys and then have a year or two when you suck with 80 million on the DL. Red Sox model.
This off-season just continues to be a disaster.
I think Cohen always wants to go for the biggest fish. If Scherzer signs elsewhere, they will have misplayed their hand once again.
I think they should sign the second pitcher right away. Don't put all your eggs in the Scherzer basket
I think Cohen always wants to go for the biggest fish. If Scherzer signs elsewhere, they will have misplayed their hand once again.
I think they should sign the second pitcher right away. Don't put all your eggs in the Scherzer basket
Especially when that player is on record with NOT wanting to play here.
I think Cohen always wants to go for the biggest fish. If Scherzer signs elsewhere, they will have misplayed their hand once again.
I think they should sign the second pitcher right away. Don't put all your eggs in the Scherzer basket
Agreed they should have been in on this. That is a real good deal and Mets could have easily beat that.
This off-season just continues to be a disaster.
No he did not get outbid.
Disaster?? Did you miss Friday?
If not Scherzer then get Stro, Gray, Baez with the money...
Reports are they had higher deal on table to Gausman
Scherzer should have been the target all along.
Gausman is NOT a pivot from Scherzer. Gausman is a #3 with #2 upside.
that is settling. it's what the Mets used to do.
Instead of ponying up the cash for Holliday they sign Jason Bay type shit.
The Mets should go all in on Scherzer and if he decides to go elsewhere then he does - they made their play for him is what matters. it's that simple.
but Gausman, in my world, could have been signed in addition to Scherzer not as a pivot from him.
A pivot from a faux Scherzer chase to Gausman was the Wilpons play book.
Quote:
So, no Gausman and likely no Scherzer. So we’ll have to overpay for the headcase that is Stroman?
This off-season just continues to be a disaster.
No he did not get outbid.
Disaster?? Did you miss Friday?
Friday’s frenzy of second tier players? Yeah, I caught that. Hard to see how that moves the needle. We need pitching.
If he didn’t get outbid, then do you have details on what happened?
@martinonyc
·
5m
The Mets offered Kevin Gausman more than the 5/$110 million he accepted in Toronto, per source.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets offered Kevin Gausman more than the 5/$110 million he accepted in Toronto, per source.
Mets need to make a killer signing and put a stop to it.
Dude.. the New York Mets are willing to spend money with anyone.. how are you not happy about that??
They went into the season last year with best roster on paper in NL.. and it didn't work out..
Now they are working to retool it and spending A LOT of money.
You should be excited...
@jonmorosi
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years.
@martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum.
@MLBNetwork
@MLB
@jonmorosi
·
2m
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years. @martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
If he doesn't mind high taxes, you think he would have stayed in California, where the weather is nicer.
@jonmorosi
·
2m
The #Mets have made Max Scherzer a multiyear offer at $40 million per season, source confirms. In some versions discussed, total value would be $120 million over 3 years. @martinonyc
was first to report $40MM figure per annum. @MLBNetwork
@MLB
Just go four years and get it done.
@MLBONFOX
·
1m
The Texas Rangers are signing Jon Gray to a 4-year deal, per @JeffPassan
Nightengale - ( New Window )
Really hope they get Scherzer done but if they don’t remember the money is still there. Rodon + whoever else isn’t the end of the world. Everyone other than Scherzer is a dice roll.
Quote:
Players would rather go to Canada for less money than to play for the Mets. It’s just comical at this point.
Dude.. the New York Mets are willing to spend money with anyone.. how are you not happy about that??
They went into the season last year with best roster on paper in NL.. and it didn't work out..
Now they are working to retool it and spending A LOT of money.
You should be excited...
Yeah, I was excited. But now that it’s trendy to turn down the Mets huge offers…what exactly is all this money getting us? Backup players? Please.
I’m confident that our offense…as currently constructed…will get back in track after last year. Our huge gaping hole was, and is, pitching.
And can we PLEASE stop saying how great we are ON PAPER? I’m still waiting for the team to actually back up that statement that we hear every single off-season from fans.
But boras put his cards out there in June - he was looking to leverage an extension with any trade. The $ matters here (hopefully more than jt did last year with Bauer).
Not sure if I’m remembering correctly, but weren’t the Mets one of the teams listed in his NTC?
Quote:
In comment 15471357 CooperDash said:
Quote:
Players would rather go to Canada for less money than to play for the Mets. It’s just comical at this point.
Dude.. the New York Mets are willing to spend money with anyone.. how are you not happy about that??
They went into the season last year with best roster on paper in NL.. and it didn't work out..
Now they are working to retool it and spending A LOT of money.
You should be excited...
Yeah, I was excited. But now that it’s trendy to turn down the Mets huge offers…what exactly is all this money getting us? Backup players? Please.
I’m confident that our offense…as currently constructed…will get back in track after last year. Our huge gaping hole was, and is, pitching.
And can we PLEASE stop saying how great we are ON PAPER? I’m still waiting for the team to actually back up that statement that we hear every single off-season from fans.
Every single off-season?? This is off-season #2 in the Cohen era!!
We all had plenty to complain about in Wilpon era...because they would never spend, even on their own guys!! Never once went over luxury tax threshold...Cohen did it in year 2!!
Scherzer or not I'm so excited about being a Mets fan.. the Wilpon era is behind us, screw the pundits who try to make it seem like everything the Mets do is bad..it's just NY
Quote:
says Scherzer never said he did not want to go to Mets Nightengale - ( New Window )
Not sure if I’m remembering correctly, but weren’t the Mets one of the teams listed in his NTC?
He was 10/5.
Not sure I completely buy it but worth remembering that as fans we get everything at second hand and a lot of what we get is hearsay.
@JonHeyman
·
23s
Mets seem heartened and hopeful about the prospects of landing Max Scherzer. Dodgers pessimistic, at least at the moment.
@AdamRubinMedia
·
2m
Big gift coming for Mets fans …
@Joelsherman1
·
19s
The #Mets are making progress with Max Scherzer. Have not heard it is final. Deal might be for as much as 4 years if it gets done.
Matz
Syndergaard
Gausman
Gray
Who is left as a #2, #3? I know Strohman is, and I'm not thrilled about him.
Guess we'll see!
Who do you want?
Strohman?
???
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
agree with this, but....I'd definitely be more interested with deGrom and Scherzer heading a rotation in a trade for someone like Mahle.
Take your strength and protect it. that's how you use your farm IMO.
Not to get someone like Baez in a likely lost year/Hail Mary.
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: The Mets and Max Scherzer are “gaining traction” on a deal getting done. The Dodgers are not optimistic on keeping him. Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler are working to get it done.
Quote:
The rotation does NOT necessarily need another big starting pitcher. deGrom-Sherzer-Carrasco-Walker is the top 4. You then have Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and Lucchesi later competing for the 5.
Idd add a guy like Hill or maybe another #5 type but we certainly wont be desperate for more pitching assuming we do ink Sherzer IMO.
agree with this, but....I'd definitely be more interested with deGrom and Scherzer heading a rotation in a trade for someone like Mahle.
Take your strength and protect it. that's how you use your farm IMO.
Not to get someone like Baez in a likely lost year/Hail Mary.
And Id be fine with that... But people acting like we should be desperate for more pitching, even after signing Sherzer.... ugh... We actually have a bunch of decent backend depth stashed away.
2 FA (if Sherzer is 1 of the FA, the other can be a bargain hunt)
JDG/Carrasco/Walker
Hill
Peterson/Megill in AAA. I think Williams may have 1 option left too.
Luchessi and Yamamoto may not be worth 40 man spots depending on their recoveries. Spots are going to get tight.
We are all hoping for the best, but in the interest of planning for the worst what's the best backup plan for $120m?
Rodon, Baez, trade McNeil or Dom for a young pitcher?
it would. but malpractice happens sometimes. Matz and Thor's agents didn't think to let the Mets top their current offers.
1m
Growing indications that Scherzer is headed to Mets, sources tell @TheAthletic. NYM “making progress,” per @Joelsherman1.
Conversation
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Growing indications that Scherzer is headed to Mets, sources tell
@TheAthletic
. NYM “making progress,” per
@JoelSherman1
.
now
Growing industry expectation Scherzer goes to Mets. Other teams falling out of bidding, per sources. Not done deal.
40s
I honestly think this could be the start of a pipeline of Scott Boras clients to the Mets in future years, like there seemed to be at one point with the Nationals. Deep-pocketed, relatively new owner. Makes sense to me.
Kumar Rocker out there somewhere listening to my chemical romance on repeat.
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: The belief around MLB right now is that Max Scherzer is signing with the Mets. It’s a matter of for how many years. 3 hours ago, it was at 2. Then it went to 3. A fourth year might end this and signs the deal.
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Max Scherzer and the #Mets are close to finalizing a multiyear deal, source confirms.
@MLBNetwork
@MLB
Quote:
You think their agents rush to get those deals done right before Mets lose out on Max? That’d be malpractice, wouldn’t it?
One of the Mets or Dogders are going to lose out on scherzer. Why wouldn't they wait to see who, and what they'd offer?
With Seager out there they aren't wasting money on what is for them a back of the rotation starter.
Scherzer proved last year that even for them he's top of rotation but nobody else out there fits that for them.
when Boras is the agent and you are willing to write the biggest check there is always a chance.
Doug Rush
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: Max Scherzer and the Mets are on the verge of finalizing a deal.
Unless any unforeseen things happen, Scherzer is coming to the Mets.
@robertbrender
The Mets are operating like the richest team in baseball. It’s almost hard to believe but it’s real.
Yeah you got it right ..they had to have known Mets were on verge of getting Max..
This is crazy!
With Seager out there they aren't wasting money on what is for them a back of the rotation starter.
Scherzer proved last year that even for them he's top of rotation but nobody else out there fits that for them.
That makes sense. Thanks
Sign Showalter!
Times have changed.
Would love to see them try to find a few gambles like Nick Senzel or other similarly talented guys who haven't figured it out yet.
Joe Pantorno
@JoePantorno
Source on Scherzer to #Mets: “I think it’s done.”
Will need confirmation, however.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
agreed. anyone is tradeable if the return is good enough but no reason to give up on any of them unless there's someone they think is a real find.
I'd prefer to try to grab a guy like Senzel from a team looking to save some $ by taking back another contract with him and paying a non-top 15 prospect cost.
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
Quote:
im gonna need to call the Dr about this boner not going away 😂
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
Happy to inject a bit of reality into everyone’s wet dream. Talking like we just signed 27 year old Max Scherzer.
10s
I know everyone wants to know if they can go to bed but the team has not heard Scherzer's decision yet.
22s
According to two sources, the Mets offer is for about 42 million per year over either 3 or 4 years.
To be honest I'm not sure what a "decline" would look like for him anyway. He can get people out just fine with his offspeed stuff, so even if there is a velocity dip I don't know how negative it would actually be.
Quote:
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
Quote:
In comment 15471543 KDubbs said:
Quote:
im gonna need to call the Dr about this boner not going away 😂
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
Happy to inject a bit of reality into everyone’s wet dream. Talking like we just signed 27 year old Max Scherzer.
we have a money bags owner willing to do it. its not my money and the guys who it is doesnt seem to care how much he throws to him. I'll enjoy deGrom and Scherzer as long as possible, thanks though. mets fans will complain they do t spend and when they do spend. cant win. will you hate being the big spenders everyone hates also?
Quote:
In comment 15471542 CooperDash said:
Quote:
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
This isn't your average 37 year old.
Quote:
In comment 15471546 HewlettGiant said:
Quote:
In comment 15471543 KDubbs said:
Quote:
im gonna need to call the Dr about this boner not going away 😂
Just read some of Cooper Dash's posts, that will bring you down
Happy to inject a bit of reality into everyone’s wet dream. Talking like we just signed 27 year old Max Scherzer.
we have a money bags owner willing to do it. its not my money and the guys who it is doesnt seem to care how much he throws to him. I'll enjoy deGrom and Scherzer as long as possible, thanks though. mets fans will complain they do t spend and when they do spend. cant win. will you hate being the big spenders everyone hates also?
It isn’t about spending as much as how much we spend to sign a pitcher that’s 38 years old. Guys like Cohen don’t get were they are by losing money. It’s great that we are spending big on a player, but at some point the bill needs to be paid. We don’t have an unlimited budget…as much as many of you want to believe. If we get Scherzer…I hope we get as much out of him as we can…while we can.
Quote:
In comment 15471550 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 15471542 CooperDash said:
Quote:
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
You have to understand what's happening...they are going to spend A LOT on free agents while they rebuild the farm, just like Dodgers did. And yeah, they will probably be limited more by roster size than $$ in the near term.
I'm not ruling out Baez or Stroman here still...
Richest owner in sports man.
This isn't your average 37 year old.
Sure…he was one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. I can name you a thousand pitchers that fell off a cliff after 30. What’s your point?
Quote:
Was pretty damn good in his age 37-40 seasons for the DBacks...go ahead and look that up Cooper.
This isn't your average 37 year old.
Sure…he was one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. I can name you a thousand pitchers that fell off a cliff after 30. What’s your point?
That Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game...
That was exactly my point
Lol
Quote:
In comment 15471560 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15471550 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
In comment 15471542 CooperDash said:
Quote:
prime, free agent. This is a soon to be 38 year old pitcher, at the end of his career, looking at his last big contract.
I hope he can replicate what he’s done, but odds are he will decline at some point…and likely on the Mets dime.
Of course he will decline. You are signing him full well knowing that. He was absolutely dominant the 2nd half of last year. You are going all in for a championship in 2022. Nobody's dreaming of building a future team around Sherzer.
And a dime to the Mets now is not important... Its not like with the Wilpons when we had very limited dimes.
So just to be clear…you are saying that we have an unlimited budget and money is no issue no matter how high the payroll gets? I just want to be clear. Is that correct?
You have to understand what's happening...they are going to spend A LOT on free agents while they rebuild the farm, just like Dodgers did. And yeah, they will probably be limited more by roster size than $$ in the near term.
I'm not ruling out Baez or Stroman here still...
Richest owner in sports man.
From your lips to gods ears. Funny that all that money couldn’t also get them some of those other pitchers too? But we’ll see I guess.
but the fact is they get Scherzer for $40m+ and the payroll is up to $260m and highest in MLB.
I'm not saying stop spending. Far from it. Add depth wherever you can. But don't spend risky money. Add glue guys and worthy gambles. Take on cash for talented young players wherever possible.
This is a gamble on the present. Spend the rest of the money gambling on guys who can possibly contribute and add depth now and maybe have the talent to be more in the future. That's the LAD model.
Stro lied and claimed it was photoshopped. Called out Carig for believing a fake image.
And then Carig came in with the KO punch because he took the screenshot himself (so it's not faked), and Stro not only liked it but then put on a show lying about it.
@TheDougRush
UPDATE: Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have submitted their offer to Max Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, which is likely a 3-year, $126 million deal ($42M). The Mets are awaiting to hear back from Scherzer’s camp.
Stro lied and claimed it was photoshopped. Called out Carig for believing a fake image.
And then Carig came in with the KO punch because he took the screenshot himself (so it's not faked), and Stro not only liked it but then put on a show lying about it.
Im really over Stroman. Really hope we can finish this Sherzer deal so he's no longer an option.
Also...
Obviously I don't know Stroman personally, but I'm not bothered by his social media...I thin she's a fine 3rd or 4th starter and I love how he competes on the field..However, I understand why a lot of what he does and says would rub people the wrong way and everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
We've been down this road so many times, only to be disappointed in the end.
Wonder if Robbie Ray would be the next target if/when Scherzer returns to LA?
Mets have done what they can
Mets have done what they can
It comes down to money. If Mets offer is relatively the same, then
It comes down to other factors.
Add the 4th year and get it done
Also I know for effect its fun to call scherzer 38, but he is 37 and will be for like 2/3s of next season. Im also more interested in what he did the last few years, then i am in his age.
so, age buys you nothing other than youth.
now get it done. and if it falls through at least I'm confident the Mets didn't half-ass it purely for optics like they would have under the prior regime.
I’m mean obviously he could move or have multiple residences. But having lived in CA for over a decade, it’s not a place that generally would appeal to a guy who was raised in Missouri and moved to Florida
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
I’m mean obviously he could move or have multiple residences. But having lived in CA for over a decade, it’s not a place that generally would appeal to a guy who was raised in Missouri and moved to Florida
Yeah, it makes sense. He lives probably about an hour from the spring training stadium in St. Lucie, maybe a little less.
Quote:
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Does Boras have any hard feelings from the Rocker mess?
I love this for the Mets. Might as well go big and go for upside right now. Hopefully in parallel, we'll be investing in the farm and front office to build something sustainable. If we get Scherzer, there's at least a reasonable scenario that this team can be good and be dangerous in playoffs. Love that.
What makes you say that? It's early. And we have no idea. (Also, I may have missed something significant lol.)
Quote:
like this is going to fall through, but whatever, can't blame the Mets at this point.
What makes you say that? It's early. And we have no idea. (Also, I may have missed something significant lol.)
twitter. Some say the Angels are back involved now.
longer it drags on, less likely it is of happening IMO.
Mets should just give their BAFO put an expiration on it.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1h
One rival exec last night saw nothing unusual in delay, saying, “All the Boras side items (in a contract)” take time. Also difficult to imagine Scherzer, a union leader, turning down perceived highest offer. But as Mets learned with Bauer, not over until agreement is reached.
Cohen doesn't want to lose and get into another battle, this time with the biggest agent.
the news getting out to Gausman/Gray (and every writer on the planet) does imply that someone said this is going to happen.
Martino has a direct line to the FO so clearly that wasn't coming from the Mets side.
it does help give Boras leverage that the backup plans are no longer out there, so if I were betting he was the one putting it out there that they are finalizing a deal with the Mets.
so fingers crossed this gets done today, perhaps with some final asks from Boras now that he has the Mets over a barrel.
if not there are other ways to spend the $40m. Carlos Rodon and Sonny Gray would be my top fallback plan at this point.
Rodon is also repped by Boras.
same, but I'm also impatient.
lol
is that possible? and by optimist I mean I don't whine and cry if things don't work out as hoped - just move on.
I'm more shocked it's crickets on Stroman. A few of the lists had him as the top SP available on the same level as Gausman but that doesn't seem to be the case.
I think he seems like a good fit for the Angels, hopefully after they miss out on Scherzer.
Replying to @martinonyc
Odds they are being used, again ?
Andy Martino @martinonyc
9m
Slim
Quote:
.
same, but I'm also impatient.
lol
is that possible? and by optimist I mean I don't whine and cry if things don't work out as hoped - just move on.
Absolutely possible, although the "impatient" piece typically includes "freaking out."
I don't get the impression that's you. lol
Scherzer is happening! I'm seeing it. Making this happen! LFG!!!!
at the moment the 8 regulars are pretty clear. Marte, Nimmo, Canha, Escobar, Lindor, Mcneil, Alonso, McCann.
3 of the bench players are likely Guillorme, Plummer, Nido.
DH is likely 2 of Cano/JDD/Smith - of which Smith seems like the best trade bait.
on the P side JDG, Carrasco, Walker are 3/5 starters.
in the BP you would think Diaz, May, Lugo, Castro are 4/8. Gsellman, Drew Smith and SRF will need to earn their spots since all 3 still have options (per spotrac). I would guess at least 2 of them are back.
So net-net the every day players look pretty settled barring some trades.
But probably room for 2 SP and 2 RP.
plan A is rightfully Scherzer, but if that doesn't happen 40m-50m for those 4 P spots should still get some solid players.
then he lied about it when Carig confronted him and claimed it was "photoshopped".
almost feel bad for his agent.
@Joelsherman1
·
2h
There is expected to be a frenzy of moves today. In words of 1 executive today will be “bananas.” Becuase physicals and contract language needs to be finalized b4 potential lockout midnight Wed into Thurs, today is seen as close to a deadline to finalize deals.
that's true but they gave him a ML deal and he was supposedly the best minor league FA, so I assume they are going to give him every chance to win that job. He can play all 3 positions and unlike Lee I don't think they can just send him down without someone claiming him. He's the 9th best prospect in their system now at a position they don't have a lot of depth and I think I read he would have been close to St Louis' top 10 too, so he may be a legitimate prospect worth hanging on to even if he doesn't have a great spring.
It's obviously convenient that all 3 starting OF can play CF if necessary, but it would probably be better to have a 4th OF capable of that too vs. a LF only like Dom (or JDD).
Surprise, surprise.
I'll never forgive BVW for effectively swapping out Zack Wheeler for Marcus Stroman.
but Plummer can't be sent down right? he'd have to go on waivers?
Quote:
presumably is ahead of Plummer on any "depth chart"
but Plummer can't be sent down right? he'd have to go on waivers?
Why? He has 3 minor league options left. This is like the Sam McWilliams situation. A "high priority" 6 year minor league FA they signed.
@martinonyc
Sources: Mets and Scherzer now re-engaged, negotiations coming to a head.
Apparently teams have already seen the medicals so hopefully this is quick one way or the other.
Quote:
In comment 15471957 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
presumably is ahead of Plummer on any "depth chart"
but Plummer can't be sent down right? he'd have to go on waivers?
Why? He has 3 minor league options left. This is like the Sam McWilliams situation. A "high priority" 6 year minor league FA they signed.
I assumed since it was a big league deal he'd be subject to waivers? Didn't they lose McWilliams last year on waivers?
To make room on the roster, the team DFA’ed Cameron Maybin and Sam McWilliams, and optioned Khalil Lee, Patrick Mazeika, and Sean Reid-Foley to Triple-A.
Major league deal only means you are on the 40 man and paid as a big leaguer. It doesn't dictate you're on the 25 man roster.
@Joelsherman1
·
14s
Heard the #Mets offer to Scherzer is in the 3-yr, $129M range — or about $43M on average per season.
sign Ollie. That being said, quite the career MLB debut in 2002! at 20, still pitching professionally (in Mexico) in 2021 24 innings 13.1 K/9, 0.87 whip, 2.63 era
I wasn't sure which transactions triggered waivers. I assumed he had to hit waivers when he wasn't on the 26 man but it sounds like it was only when he was removed from the 40 man (and wasn't subject to waivers when he was initially sent to AAA, only when they removed from the 40).
Rodon at 10. Wheeler at 4. Still burns my ass. Diaz I could see the logic to, though I didn't like it. Letting Wheeler go (and to a division rival), and then trading two pitching prospects for Stroman, and paying him similarly is something I will never understand.
seems like they agreed on parameters and now it's just figuring out structure of the deal. good news. whatever the structure is great for mets even an opt out at year 1. in a worst case scenario if the team tanks and it's obvious he's gonna opt out they can trade him at deadline (though I assume he will also get some kind of NTC so he has control on destination).
Quote:
was sent down to Syracuse. Maybe I'm not understanding your question? He pitched in AAA for Syracuse and then was removed from the 40 man/DFA'ed to make room, then the Padres claimed him.
I wasn't sure which transactions triggered waivers. I assumed he had to hit waivers when he wasn't on the 26 man but it sounds like it was only when he was removed from the 40 man (and wasn't subject to waivers when he was initially sent to AAA, only when they removed from the 40).
He signed a major league deal, didn't make the team and pitched for Syracuse. Again, major league deal only refers to 40 man spot and how you're paid (guaranteed, even in the minors). If anything he'd be even LESS appealing if the rules dictated he had to be on the 26 man roster all season vs. a standard minor league FA on a minor league deal. He has 3 options left and that's the value.
Quote:
is wherever Scherzer signs, the contract will include opt-outs, potentially as early as year 1.
seems like they agreed on parameters and now it's just figuring out structure of the deal. good news. whatever the structure is great for mets even an opt out at year 1. in a worst case scenario if the team tanks and it's obvious he's gonna opt out they can trade him at deadline (though I assume he will also get some kind of NTC so he has control on destination).
Guarantee he's getting a no-trade. He was vehement about his previous destination and ring chasing.
Quote:
projects Scherzer as the #7 SP in baseball in 2022.
Rodon at 10. Wheeler at 4. Still burns my ass. Diaz I could see the logic to, though I didn't like it. Letting Wheeler go (and to a division rival), and then trading two pitching prospects for Stroman, and paying him similarly is something I will never understand.
penny wise pound foolish.
though I say this as someone who 100% would have resigned Wheeler, there is a little historical revisionism because at the time he was viewed as risky. I remember Yankee fans 100% preferring to trade for Stroman at the 2019 deadline because they felt Wheeler was overrated. The Cardinals supposedly turned down trading Bader for him.
the mets mistake was not extending him in the 2 spring trainings when he said he was open to extending. they likely could have gotten him below what he ended up signing for, which exceeded the pre-market projections.
Really like that Lorenzen deal for LAA.
Really like that Lorenzen deal for LAA.
if they nabbed both that would be insane.
FG projected 3x15m for Rodon. MLBTR projected 1x25m.
So far MLBTR has been pretty dead on but for the Mets I would think the 3 year would be preferable. that's the type of risk they can afford to take and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.
Quote:
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Just the opposite - Theory is/was Boras wants the big payday and Max needs a push
this year they are almost certain to be penalized 10 slots in the draft with the way they are spending on FA (which will cost them another $1m).
but by losing Conforto/Syndergaard they are going to gain about those same amounts in pool $ associated with the comp picks.
and by spending big $ on free agents not tied to QO they are backfilling (and possibly upgrading) on the field at the same time.
that is the LAD model in action. Leverage cash as a resource > amateur talent resources.
Quote:
and Rodon please (both on 3 year deals)/
Really like that Lorenzen deal for LAA.
if they nabbed both that would be insane.
FG projected 3x15m for Rodon. MLBTR projected 1x25m.
So far MLBTR has been pretty dead on but for the Mets I would think the 3 year would be preferable. that's the type of risk they can afford to take and if it doesn't work out it doesn't work out.
I really like the idea of giving Rodon more guaranteed money but lower AAV. Both sides assuming the risk. 3 years 45ish seems like a good move for both sides. Maybe a opt out after 2.
I really like the idea of giving Rodon more guaranteed money but lower AAV. Both sides assuming the risk. 3 years 45ish seems like a good move for both sides. Maybe a opt out after 2.
100% agree. Just like Walker last year it was in the Mets favor to get multiple years at a favorable rate vs. 1 year prove it.
Quote:
In comment 15471784 Gmanfandan said:
Quote:
In Mets twitter world - I would love to see Max in Orange and Blue but it seems like Boras is the one leaking the news and there has not been a decision from Scherzer.
Uneducated guess is Scott is floating the numbers so it would look foolish if Max takes less and goes elsewhere.
so, your theory is Boras is purposely setting the Mets up to get jilted.
Just the opposite - Theory is/was Boras wants the big payday and Max needs a push
I see. Makes more sense, but again Scherzer has earned around a quarter of a billion dollars, taking less to go to a place he is more comfortable with wouldn't look foolish IMO, it would look like he's principled (depending on his reasons for where he selects).
In many eyes I think taking less for a better fit (or preferred spot) would make him look better not worse as opposed to simply taking the most money.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
Eric,
He also said no to going to the Yankees so it wasn't just interdivisional. It's being reported the Dodgers have yet to exceed 2 years. He's 38 in July. 2 years 80ish vs. 3 years 120ish (with him reportedly looking for 4) is a massive, massive difference. This isn't a 27 year old who is likely to make it back. When this contract is finished he's LIKELY done, and at the very least VERY unlikely to make back the money "left" on the deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
@jaysonst
These are the 8 teams known to be in on Max Scherzer, via multiple sources:
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Red Sox
Rays
Blue Jays
Astros
Mets
Also heard Yankees checked in & were told he was unlikely to OK a trade there. Mets could be a long shot for the same reason.
Quote:
and wanting it tied to any trade Scherzer approved (he was 10/5). He's a leader in the PA so the chance to set a new record for AAV is a big deal.
The #1 reason anyone hires Boras is that he maximizes value and the clues have been there that Scherzer is aligned with that - along with the fact that he wants to go somewhere he can win.
I have no idea what the genesis of the veto rumors were last year but 1 possible explanation could be that the Nats just didn't want to deal him within the division and he was ok with that given the LAD/SFG were better positioned for WS? I vaguely recall what leaked out at the time was the NYM inquired and were just told it's not happening. The geography aspect seems to have been more assumed than specifically reported.
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
Scherzer is a big-time outspoken union guy so the AAV is likely a big deal (we don't know what the Dodgers are offering) so it's possible they aren't even offering 2 for 86 (which would be the 43 million the Mets reportedly are). Overall money is obviously "important" to anyone but the AAV is something both Boras/Scherzer likely feel is a key component here.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
4m
Source: Mets are close to a deal for Max Scherzer.
192Reply
246Retweet
1kLike
More options
martinonyc's avatar
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Mets were waiting overnight, talks resumed a little more than an hour ago, now an agreement is near.
my only comment was Scherzer is a guy (based on earnings) who if he doesn't take the highest offer you at least understand why.
Once you have multi-generational money (like he does), I imagine you make decisions based first on other factors.
So, that was all I meant. Boras' job is to get him the Mets offer, and Boras has done his job IMO.
to be making the decision that way. Kershaw as a counter example I'm sure has been quoted numerous times saying he wants to be an LAD for life. Bauer was known to prefer going back to LA and his bizarre agent went to UCLA with him.
Scherzer has always seemed a little less sentimental (like most big Boras clients). Conforto was kind of the same way - im sure if we looked at whatever the Mets offered him in extension talks it would look more than fair and he said numerous times he wanted to stay here. But you don't hire Boras to settle for fair you hire him if you want to get top of market.
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Max Scherzer and the Mets are finalizing $130M, 3-year deal. Minor details to go only.
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Max Scherzer and the Mets are finalizing $130M, 3-year deal. Minor details to go only.
man thank god Bauer troll'd us last year. this is so much better than that would have been even without factoring in his off the field issues.
Holy shit!
Holy shit!
@JonHeyman
·
17s
Max Scherzer and the Mets are finalizing $130M, 3-year deal. Minor details to go only.
Great news! My 9 year-old daughter got me some Mets socks for my recent birthday. I wore them today and told her if they signed the pitcher they were after, they would be my lucky Mets socks
Scherzer prediction was 3/120m (3/130 actual)
Marte prediction was 4/80m (4/78 actual)
Canha prediction was 2/24m (2/26.5 actual)
Escobar prediction was 2/20m (exactly correct)
Total amount predicted = $244m
Total amount spent by mets = 254.5m
I'm going to be my typical optimist self here and forget all the risks and just say this out loud guys
Degrom/Scherzer
@Feinsand
·
38s
The Mets and Max Scherzer are "working on details" for a three-year, $130 million deal, though it's not quite done yet, per source. @JonHeyman
was on it.
@jonmorosi
·
12s
Max Scherzer is nearing a 3-year, $130 million deal with the #Mets that will be, on an annual basis, the largest in @MLB
history, source confirms. @MLBNetwork
Last year the LAD had the top lux tax payroll at $258m and were the only team to exceed the luxury tax by more than a few million.
Two minutes ago.
12:10 p.m. tweet
...
...
...
...
He is not
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
4m
Max Scherzer is nearing a 3-year, $130 million deal with the #Mets that will be, on an annual basis, the largest in @MLB
history, source confirms. @MLBNetwork
@mikemayer22
· 6m
I’m told that Max Scherzer to the Mets is a done deal.
Haters are going to be out in full force!
Highly doubt they are "done" and completely disagree on the rotation even Eppler said they needed multiple SP.
deGrom/Scherzer/Walker/Carrasco/Megill/Peterson is the entirety of the SP depth. They essentially replaced Stroman with Scherzer (obviously a major move) but far from enough.
Agreed. Rich Hill makes sense as a 6th guy / swing arm to the BP to compete with Peterson / Megill / Williams if any of the 3 pitches well enough to earn a regular slot.
That would leave 1 more spot available in the top 5 and start them 9 deep in total. Would give them a ton of flexibility to skip guys on occasion.
Hopefully 1 positive from last year is that they function as the most conservative organization in the sport in terms of rehab timelines. Very little downside to erroring on the side of more rest and smaller pitch counts until Aug/Sept/Oct.
Quote:
I think the meds are done except for a lefty reliever. They already have a lot of guys for the rotation
Highly doubt they are "done" and completely disagree on the rotation even Eppler said they needed multiple SP.
deGrom/Scherzer/Walker/Carrasco/Megill/Peterson is the entirety of the SP depth. They essentially replaced Stroman with Scherzer (obviously a major move) but far from enough.
I agree.
But I expect 1 or 2 multi-year deals for relievers.
and possibly 1 more multi-year deal for a SP (like Rodon - which seems like it's just too much upside to ignore).
At minimum they will likely add 2 SP on 1 year deals along with a couple veteran relievers.
none of that needs to happen before the lockout though it wouldn't shock me if they are aggressive if there's a specific reliever they like.
But I don’t think they are going after another prime starter free agent.
Also no Baez
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
could be Rodon on a team friendly multi-year
could be Greinke on a 1 year
could be Bundy on a 1 year
Any of those could be good options.
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
I am kind of with you... sign Baez and you can trade McNeil for another SP...
could be Rodon on a team friendly multi-year
could be Greinke on a 1 year
could be Bundy on a 1 year
Any of those could be good options.
Dom (plus) for Mahle and sign a guy like Hill would be ideal. Then you don't have to count on the Peterson's of the world and they are legit depth.
I think there was a change of strategy when they signed three hitters to lure Scherzer.
I've said all along that without Syndergaard they should blow it up b/c they didn't have a legit #2 starter, however I caveated that with...unless they get Scherzer who is better than Syndergaard.
So, now you go all in. I'd add another legit SP (trade for Mahle?), maybe sign Baez, and fix the pen (lol too much?)
Baez is risky for 2 reasons:
1. $/term
2. I think McNeil might be the better player and he'd almost have to get traded (it's close but I prefer McNeil's elite contact to Baez all or nothing approach)
unless you can get something very good for McNeil, I think I'd be conservative on how far I'd be willing to lock in with Baez.
if you can get him closer to the 4x20m projections, im interested. if it's anywhere close to Semien money Im passing.
@elijfishman
The #Yankees have signed shortstop Jose Peraza to a minor league deal. The 27 year old played 64 games with the Mets in 2021.
yup he's another good one.
Bundy on a 1 year is tempting. 4 pitch mix. His avg. velocity this year was actually 1 mph higher than 2020 when he had a really good year despite averaging 90mph on his FB. Likely a very low cost given his bad 2021.
depending on what their ideas are with Cano, it wouldn't be the worst thing to keep both Dom + JDD as bench depth and to give Alonso some days not in the field.
Andy Martino @martinonyc
3m
Source: Mets in agreement with Scherzer. Done deal.
martinonyc's avatar
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Source: 3 years, $130 mil, opt out after two years.
Now Eppler and Tannous have 2-3 years to restock the farm and a massive bonus pool this year to do it.
and who knows, maybe the plan is to QO nimmo next year and get another comp pick. Vientos or Baty may be a full time COF by then.
Quote:
Cobb would be a solid addition.
yup he's another good one.
Bundy on a 1 year is tempting. 4 pitch mix. His avg. velocity this year was actually 1 mph higher than 2020 when he had a really good year despite averaging 90mph on his FB. Likely a very low cost given his bad 2021.
depending on what their ideas are with Cano, it wouldn't be the worst thing to keep both Dom + JDD as bench depth and to give Alonso some days not in the field.
Bundy's savant page is horrifying. I think I'd only take him as the "Rich Hill" depth arm. It's scary bad.
Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
Quote:
I mean it doesn't get much uglier than this Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
Season ended with a shoulder issue and fangraphs projects a 4.61 FIP. If he's the "Rich Hill" sure, but not as the 2nd best SP they add.
One more legit starter please. I wanted baez back, but this was the right move.
Quote:
I mean it doesn't get much uglier than this Link - ( New Window )
just 90 innings and injuries.
his 65 innings in 2020 look a lot better.
2020 could have easily been an aberration but I expect the cost would be very low to find out and Eppler apparently liked something about him when he traded for him then.
My point is more, the numbers across the board say he was scary bad so it's not like you can say "well he's intriguing because" other than saying he was very good during the abbreviated season. I'd much prefer a Cobb type where the stuff+ implies he could be a steal.
Link - ( New Window )
money talks.
@timbhealey
·
17s
The Mets' projected 2022 payroll is $267 million. That is by far the highest in the majors (at the moment).
@jaysonst
·
3m
"The Mets’ 2022 payroll stands at $268 million, and Cohen is not done spending, can’t be done spending, with additional pitching holes to fill and the overall depth still questionable."
With a free spending owner, Scherzer becomes a possibility.
The Mets are not done obviously, but I feel a whole lot better about 2022 now than I did a week ago.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
Quote:
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
Quote:
In comment 15472578 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
I think Stroman is gone. He's been lashing out (including at the Mets). No clue where they go with this but ideally at least 1 "legit" SP and 1 "Rich Hill type". Would love Rodon, I like Cobb a lot, I like Mahle a ton, there are options. As is the rotation needs help.
Perhaps too much is made of age: The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season with the oldest offense in the majors (average age: 30.6) and fifth-oldest pitching staff (average age: 29.7). But many in the industry wonder if the Giants can do it again after so many of their older hitters exceeded expectations, including catcher Buster Posey, who retired. The Giants’ culture and infrastructure also was superior to the Mets, though both can change relatively quickly depending upon personnel.
Some quick math:
current starting lineup avg. age = 29.5 (counted both Dom/JDD as DHs)
current starting rotation avg. age = 32.2 (counted Megill or Peterson as #5, both same age)
current 8 man BP avg. age = 28
So bottomline if they do end up trading a McNeil or Dom, they would be wise to do so for a SP in their 20's with a healthy track record. The average age of the current top 3 starters right now is clearly not ideal.
I'm less concerned with the starting lineup since Alonso is 26, Lindor is 28, Nimmo is 28, McNeil is 29, Dom is 26, and Vientos/Baty are closing in on the big leagues at positions occupied by 2 of the 33 year olds.
Rosenthal: By adding Max Scherzer, the Mets are acting like a New York team should. But that’s no guarantee of success - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 15472580 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15472578 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
source confirms the Mets made clear they felt they needed multiple SP's and had checked in with "most" available arms so they don't view their SP depth as enough, which is great to hear.
Multiple before the Scherzer signing.
+1. As I think someone else wrote, Scherzer takes Syndergaard place, and they were indicating they needed additional s.p. before he left.
What's the consensus re. Stroman?
Who would your choice be?
I think Stroman is gone. He's been lashing out (including at the Mets). No clue where they go with this but ideally at least 1 "legit" SP and 1 "Rich Hill type". Would love Rodon, I like Cobb a lot, I like Mahle a ton, there are options. As is the rotation needs help.
Thanks, Dan. I think Stroman may be gone also, and I also read about his lashing out.
It's always a pleasure to read your level headed, thoughtful messages.
Quote:
In the past four days, Cohen has committed $254.5 million to four free agents 33 or older — Scherzer, infielder Eduardo Escobar and outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The Mets’ 2022 payroll stands at $268 million, and Cohen is not done spending, can’t be done spending, with additional pitching holes to fill and the overall depth still questionable. For what it’s worth, the team also remains without a manager and coaches to bring all their disparate pieces together, and the pickings will be relatively slim by the time new general manager Billy Eppler gets around to hiring after the expected start of the lockout.
Perhaps too much is made of age: The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season with the oldest offense in the majors (average age: 30.6) and fifth-oldest pitching staff (average age: 29.7). But many in the industry wonder if the Giants can do it again after so many of their older hitters exceeded expectations, including catcher Buster Posey, who retired. The Giants’ culture and infrastructure also was superior to the Mets, though both can change relatively quickly depending upon personnel.
Some quick math:
current starting lineup avg. age = 29.5 (counted both Dom/JDD as DHs)
current starting rotation avg. age = 32.2 (counted Megill or Peterson as #5, both same age)
current 8 man BP avg. age = 28
So bottomline if they do end up trading a McNeil or Dom, they would be wise to do so for a SP in their 20's with a healthy track record. The average age of the current top 3 starters right now is clearly not ideal.
I'm less concerned with the starting lineup since Alonso is 26, Lindor is 28, Nimmo is 28, McNeil is 29, Dom is 26, and Vientos/Baty are closing in on the big leagues at positions occupied by 2 of the 33 year olds. Rosenthal: By adding Max Scherzer, the Mets are acting like a New York team should. But that’s no guarantee of success - ( New Window )
Eric, that's been my thinking also, that they need to add more, and younger pitching now.
says Mets will add depth in the rotation and may look to trade market, doesn't see them in on Rodon.
mentioned Manaea as a possible target if they trade 1 of JDD/Dom/McNeil since Oakland may be looking to add cheaper MLB contributors vs. prospects. Says Oakland hasn't really engaged on most trade talks yet.
Manaea due to make $10m this year and then a FA after the year. So does seem like someone they might be able to pick up cheapish. Statcast doesn't look as great as his topline #s.
says they will add depth in the rotation and may look to trade market, doesn't see them in on Rodon.
mentioned Manaea as a possible target if they trade 1 of JDD/Dom/McNeil since Oakland may be looking to add cheaper MLB contributors vs. prospects. Manaea has 1 year left at $10m. Don't think I'd give up Dom or McNeil for 1 year of anyone but almost def a yes for JDD.
Do any of you have any positive thoughts about retaining him as a 3rd starter, where he would be in a less visible role?
Link - ( New Window )
the fact that both his former clubs didn't prioritize him says something.
the fact that both his former clubs didn't prioritize him says something.
Thanks, Eric. Like Dan, you're another poster whose insights I find credible and valuable.
that's where they need to focus their resources right now.
and obviously also in the amateur ranks to fill the pipeline with high upside arms who are ready to slot in 2-3-4 years down the road.
if a team is willing to make a stud pitcher available for McNeil, that's pretty much the only way I'd trade him. And if that happens then maybe you consider Bryant or Baez if their markets don't materialize. But no need to be urgent about either one right now. Let the market come to them.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I think it's gonna be Showalter but outside shot for Ausmus too. Eppler had a front row seat with Ausmus so it would be an informed hire. The rumors were he didn't want to fire Ausmus but then preferred Showalter to Maddon. Either seems like a competent selection.
I think he is a good risk with Scherzer aboard
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
not for me. way outpitched his peripherals and still 1 year from a 6 era and -fwar.
if he wasn't on a QO maybe, but at the expense of 3-4m in draft pool? Nope. That 3m is basically another Matt Allan - which is a more desperate need for the organization than the difference between Ray and Rodon.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
Ray 3.76 FIP
Rodon 3.37
Kikuchi 4.08
Boyd (who won't be ready until mid-season) 4.31
Cobb 3.92
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I guess the difference is, I don't see Ray as a major upgrade over some of the available names. If you told me Rodon outpitches Ray in 2022 I wouldn't be shocked. Alex Cobb 2.92 FIP in 2021 over 18 starts or even trade options. If Ray were a sure thing then I'd agree but 3.69 FIP and awful as recently as 2020, I don't think that's worth the risk.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I get that, to me the better all in options are Rodon or Baez. Just better bang for buck and no compensation given up.
Sonny Gray 4.00
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
sure but look at his 2021 fip, hard hit rates, barrel%, exit velocity. none trend towards his era outperforming his career average by more than 1 run.
Quote:
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Should the Mets keep their two 1sts, it will be interesting where they go there. I like the approach lately the Mets have had with largely position players in the 1st and SP with other high picks. Easier to project on the whole, with less injury issues. Supplement SP with FAs.
That's how the Astros and Cubs were largely built. There are exceptions, of course. ie, an established big game college SP in Rocker, until that blew up
Quote:
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
+1. I'm thinking the same thing, Eric.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
PJ,
I have to disagree there. Robbie Ray 2018 0.9 fWAR 4.31 FIP, 2019 4.29 FIP. Career 4.04 FIP. From 2018-2019 he was "solid but average" and 2020 he was awful. 2018+2019 only 3 SP that threw at least 200 innings walked more batters. Steven Brault, Aaron Sanchez and Liriano. His 2018+2019 combined FIP was 4.30. He carries significant risk. I also have to wonder why Toronto hasn't been more aggressive in trying to keep a guy they "fixed".
Save that money to then go above slot on 2 or 3 Matt Allan/JT Ginn types with the 2nd round and comp picks.
they can go underslot with 1 or 2 of those also and try to get 1 of the top senior signs.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
Quote:
love to see them sign Rodon, sign an additional SP and "load manage" a 6 man rotation.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't know if an extra day really helps avoid injury. I think skipping starts is a better way to go.
In other words, a six-man rotation in which a different starter gets a rest each time through the rotation--especially in the second half.
Quote:
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
That would be crazy if he signed with Texas with everyone else they are going after.
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Good. Don't want to give up the pick.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
Quote:
For Robbie Ray.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Yup and quite frankly unless I'm missing someone, they haven't even been rumored "in" on any QO guys.
Quote:
For Robbie Ray.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Correct. So far they've done the hole filling part of the offseason as well as could be expected. Got best SP and best CF availability as well as 2 other position flexible value deals. All on reasonably termed deals.
Now it's time to value hunt and find some diamonds in the rough. The lockout break is coming at exactly the right time to get go heavy on staffing/scouting.
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
Quote:
In comment 15472763 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
love to see them sign Rodon, sign an additional SP and "load manage" a 6 man rotation.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't know if an extra day really helps avoid injury. I think skipping starts is a better way to go.
In other words, a six-man rotation in which a different starter gets a rest each time through the rotation--especially in the second half.
Thanks, Vanzetti. I would not have known that.
Quote:
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
Exactly. the last 4 first rounds were Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA. Signing Ray is giving up $3-4m and a prospect along those lines.
If we didn't like losing PCA at the deadline that's exactly what you stand to lose by signing Ray instead of Rodon. And unlike the deadline there is a simple and equally effective alternative. there were no comparable free agents to baez at the deadline. there are comparable free agents who don't cost the QO.
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, hopefully Allen down the line, Ginn and some of the SP they draft last year are a decent start, but this draft could be huge in setting themselves up for some cost controlled talent in the next 3 years or so. Plummer is a top 10 prospect in the system.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
thats alll puma does
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
Quote:
Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Peterson is 26 and steamer projects him to have the almost the same ERA/FIP as Ray next year, obviously at a fraction of the cost.
Kelenic is 22 and was a top 10 prospect in baseball. Giving him up was moronic even though it brought back "an all star" and has no relation to the value of him as a draft pick. In a bad debut he still had 24 xbh in the 2nd half last year.
Baty is a consensus top 50.
PCA was a fringe top 100 but who knows because he has barely debuted and had a major injury. He still had enough value to bring back a player likely to sign for more than Ray will in at the deadline.
Giving up first round picks when there's an alternative not to is a bizarre strategy, especially after bemoaning giving up PCA for the last several months.
Corey Seager is apparently getting 10/325 from Texas. That makes the Scherzer deal look like change.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
2m
Marlins close to acquiring catcher Jacob Stallings from Pirates, pending a medical review, sources tell @TheAthletic
.
I wouldn't have been heartbroken if they lost the 14th pick for Ray, but there are ways to improve the rotation now without giving up picks.
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
Players values aren't set in stone the day they are drafted.
Kelenic's value consistently increased and we all wanted to keep him.
PCA had a major injury and as other guys in the system had huge years he was the least bad option to trade.
I personally never want to trade prospects or give up the finite assets each team gets to find them (draft picks and pool $). I would pretty much never do it in the offseason.
the only time I would do it is at the deadline because that's when a season depends on a move made or not made - like Cespedes. They don't all work out but recently we've seen teams literally win or not win the WS thanks to deadline moves. We don't face the Royals without Cespedes and the Royals don't beat us without Zobrist. The Braves and Nats don't get their rings without deadline pickups. The Dodgers weren't going anywhere without Scherzer last year. Houston doesn't win without Verlander.
I'm personally only giving up top 50-100 prospects for a guy that has a legitimate chance to be an MVP down the stretch and be the difference between missing/making the playoffs. Or maybe a deal like Lindor last year where you are getting a face of the franchise type at a somewhat discounted rate bc of their impending FA status.
I would think their current / intermediate plan is for Seager to play short with Semien at second since they committed $500mm to the two of them.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Pirates get in addition to Zach Thompson pitching prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott for Stallings
Quote:
Seager is a fantastic player. Likely moves to 3b soonish but man can he hit.
I would think their current / intermediate plan is for Seager to play short with Semien at second since they committed $500mm to the two of them.
Sounds about right. He's still going to be an elite player at 3b so it's not as if they signed a DH.
Quote:
In comment 15473063 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Seager is a fantastic player. Likely moves to 3b soonish but man can he hit.
I would think their current / intermediate plan is for Seager to play short with Semien at second since they committed $500mm to the two of them.
Sounds about right. He's still going to be an elite player at 3b so it's not as if they signed a DH.
in for a penny in for a pound I guess. Seager/Semien up the middle is on balance probably a positive defensively, and if Seager can be a solid 3b there's not a huge value loss if he does keep trending backwards at SS. He can rake. In a good lineup and in that ballpark it's probably easier to feel confident about Semien's offense too.
Show 96 Tweets
Kevin Goldstein
@Kevin_Goldstein
·
3m
People coming at me saying the state tax thing really doesn't matter because you pay taxes in the state where the game is being played. Rangers play 81 home games, 9 in Houston, 9 in Seattle and 3 in Tampa. That's 102 games, nearly two-thirds with zero tax status. It matters.
Link - ( New Window )
I didn't really believe that but seeing the $ fly this week makes me think maybe that's right.
nothing really stands out. 11 walks/47 k's in 37 innings is decent. steamer projection is basically JAG. but I guess the world needs some lefty JAGs too.
I’d take Correa over both tbh. He looks like he’s peaking now and may even have a next level he can reach
I guess it depends how much bigger. If we are talking 360 vs. 341 then I say "who cares"? If he's getting 450 million or something then yeah I guess it's a discussion. He just looks to be hitting his prime now, he's a special pure athlete too which helps (obviously).
Mets won with both Seaver and Godden, their other two greats. You have to surround Degrom with the talent capable of winning a championship, even if it means sacrificing the future a bit.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
Mets won with both Seaver and Godden, their other two greats. You have to surround Degrom with the talent capable of winning a championship, even if it means sacrificing the future a bit.
100% agree.
ace pitchers are impossible to find. the combo of Harvey + Syndergaard being a star right away in 2015 is why they made the Cespedes deal. JDG to a lesser extent at that point.
they have JDG so why not go for it? worst case it doesn't work and you have potentially valuable trade chips at the deadline.
Quote:
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
Wright and Reyes were both good prospects but they seemed better at the time because it had been so long since we'd had any homegrown impact players. Who was the last homegrown all star (as a met) before them? Alfonzo I guess but I don't think he was ever considered a big prospect.
3. Free Agent
4. Walker
5. Fill in the blank here.
Quote:
or like Kelenic became. The only trade I can think of from the last decade or two that would have been tempting is a Chris Sale type. But pitchers break so easily even that would be tough. Moncada will almost definitely outproduce Sale in the long run but you can't really argue with any deal that wins a WS.
Alvarez is a killer. IMO he will be way better than Kelenic. In fact, I expect Alvarez to be the number one prospect in baseball at some point this upcoming season.
I think he is up there with Wright and Reyes as a prospect.
I'm a big Alvarez fan, but "way better than Kelenic" is probably some hyperbole.
let's not forget Rosario was the #5 prospect in baseball for a while (I thought I remember him climbing to #3 with some in-season graduations from the ranking lists) and prospect status is just that, prospect status until you play for real.
Kelenic had a rough start, but came on at the end.
I think he's going to be great.
I think Alvarez can be too, but a lot more distance between that happening and how close Kelenic is to confidently make that claim.
I hope you're right, odds are you will be wrong.
Rosario in hindsight was overrated based on his tools. They are still all there but he hadn't really put them together for an extended period of time. I still think he can reach a didi level but he's never going to be as good as the top guys in the group that debuted right ahead of him (all the guys we talked about earlier Lindor, Seager, Correa, Baez, etc).
Obviously the players they've targeted in FA were due to their talent first but it's a nice secondary that all 4 of the players they've added are players who know how to grind out success. Canha was a rule 5 pick 8 picks ahead of Sean Gilmartin. Escobar came up as a SS and reinvented him at a few different positions. Marte overcame adversity off the field nobody should have to go through. And now add in the a HOFer and WS champ who just a few months ago was willing to throw out of the BP to help his team. That is the type of mentality they've missed since the injuries to Harvey/Syndergaard basically left JDG without a true wingman. That is the mentality that had Harvey on the mound in game 5 and Syndergaard throwing at Escobar in the 1 game they won. It's the mentality a certain still FA SP thinks he has but doesn't.
Credit to the Mets and Steve Cohen for doing what a big-market team with a deep-pocketed owner should: spend. While some may scoff at the years and value of a contract for a 37-year-old, Scherzer isn’t your average 37-year-old. A surefire future Hall of Famer, Scherzer’s meticulous attention to offseason training and his ability to work around injuries — major and minor — is nothing short of legendary on teams he’s been a part of. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, has twice changed his grip in-season and still gone on to dominate. He’s a guy who bristles at the notion that his best years are behind him, and who are we mere mortals to argue otherwise? Players have consistently voted Scherzer as one of the game’s most uncomfortable at-bats. The Mets got a competitive generational talent on Monday and, when you think about Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets rotation isn’t just stacked up top. It’s truly terrifying.
Max Scherzer, Mets agree to 3-year, $130 million deal: Roundtable reaction from The Athletic’s MLB writers - ( New Window )
Rizzo: That was a very heated, emotional discussion.
Zimmerman: It was always a last resort. He’d try all kinds of stuff up until the morning he pitched.
Martinez: We’d finally convince him (to go on the 10-day IL). And then all of a sudden three days later, he’d come to my office (and say), “I could have been ready.”
What Scherzer has endured while continuing to pitch forms a much longer list. There was the sprained right ring finger the last five weeks of 2016, the season he won his second Cy Young. After an MRI that December revealed a stress fracture, Scherzer altered his fastball grip that spring, putting an extra finger on the baseball. He won the Cy Young Award again.
In 2018, Scherzer dealt with previously unreported thumb pain by again altering his grip.
Rizzo: The thumb, that was legendary stuff.
After every start, Scherzer’s right thumb would be swollen. Given his previous finger issues, the Nationals were skeptical about another grip change. Would he still be Scherzer?
Martinez: We went through it and I told him, if this means he’s going to have to change something else (to his mechanics), we need to do something else.
A week later, Scherzer stormed into the team’s training room and demanded the team’s training staff watch his bullpen workout. He had again figured out a way to compete. Scherzer struck out a career-high 300 hitters in 2018, when he made 33 starts and finished runner-up in Cy Young voting. At one point, Scherzer tallied up his starts over a calendar year. They totaled 33. He said he felt good in three of them.
Four months later, Scherzer woke up the morning of his scheduled start in Game 5 of the World Series and couldn’t move his neck. He needed help getting out of bed and getting dressed. His wife, Erica, who kept him positive, had to drive Scherzer to the field because the pain in his neck and upper trapezius was so debilitating. That night Washington pitched Joe Ross instead. Three days later, in a winner-take-all Game 7, Scherzer got the start and pitched five innings in the Nationals’ World Series win over the Astros.
How much did the injury still bother Scherzer? He won’t say.
Martinez: He’s a tough cat.
Rizzo: What separates him from almost anybody is that he knows his body as well or better than anyone I’ve ever been around. He knows how to fix his own ailments.
The Dodgers are seeing up close how self-aware Scherzer is. He left his first September start because of hamstring soreness, albeit after striking out nine, walking none and giving up three hits in six innings against the Braves. He not only made his next scheduled start, he went eight innings and struck out 13.
Scherzer has been a machine since joining a Dodgers rotation that had been decimated by injuries. He has allowed only five earned runs in his first seven starts, the second of which was shortened by inclement weather. Across 43 innings, he has struck out 63 and has a 1.05 ERA. The Dodgers are 7-0 in those starts and Scherzer, after Monday’s 13-strikeout performance, has again thrust himself into the NL Cy Young Award race.
True grit: Max Scherzer operates strictly on his terms; try to keep up - ( New Window )
1.) deGrom
2.) Sherzer
3.) Rodon
4.) Cookie
5.) Walker
1.) Nimmo LF
2.) Marte CF
3.) Alonso 1B
4.) Shwarber DH
5.) Lindor SS
6.) Cano/McNeil 2B
7.) Escobar 3B
8.) Canha/McNeil RF
9.) McCann C
Being compared to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling - ARI 2001.
I think it's a solid comparison, in the 2001 season Johnson turned 38 and Schilling 34.
In the 2022 season, Scherzer will be 38 and deGrom 34.
Johnson and Schilling finished 1/2 in NL Cy Young voting, Johnson took WS MVP as well.
Would love to see this comparison hold up.
@timbhealey
· 7m
It is “doubtful,” a source says, that the Mets pull off any additional deals this week.
Still, their pre-lockout haul has become an impressive one: Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar (and Nick Plummer).
https://sny.tv/articles/steve-cohen-mets-max-scherzer-next-baseball-night-in-ny - ( New Window )
fingers crossed that also means no mcneil trade.
extend Nimmo and sign some pitchers. the every day group is solid. maybe add a few more buy low depth guys like Plummer/Lee (ideally with options).
Quote:
Ramsay is hearing they are out on Baez
fingers crossed that also means no mcneil trade.
extend Nimmo and sign some pitchers. the every day group is solid. maybe add a few more buy low depth guys like Plummer/Lee (ideally with options).
Agree for the most part. Id stil sign Shwarber and make it work though. Alonso needs some protection. Im relieved Baez is walking honestly.
To me, there are three reasons Mets season went south.
1. Mets tried to crash course the hitters into accepting analytics. When you see every guy in the lineup--except for Alonso and Nimmo--hitting below expectations, you have to look for a common denominator. When Conforto explained his poor first half by saying he was thinking too much about such things as where his feet were placed, he basically said without saying it that the organization messed guys up with their "new approach." That explains why so many established hitters all had bad seasons the same year.
2. Lack of pitching depth. Thor and Walker were coming off seasons plagued by injury. Carrasco was treated with chemo for a very serious cancer in 2019. Degrom already had the torn ucl. Almost the entire rotation was a question mark, yet the Mets had no backup plan other than Petersen. They lucked out that Megill came out of nowhere but that was hardly enough. They also lucked out the top guys in the bullpen were healthy all year or it could have been a real disaster.
3. Bad clubhouse: Lindor-McNeil fight, the thumbs down. These were signs that something was not right and once the season turned, the team plummeted because guys were looking to pad their own stats. Rojas made matters worse by playing his favorites. I think that is one reason Mets are saying goodbye to Baez. On the field he thrived but in the clubhouse he was not a good combo with Lindor. I think it is also one of the reasons Mets had a hard time recruiting. It had gotten around baseball that there was a bad environment. I think that is also why Thor left. He heard things from guys on the team.
I think they have addressed 1 and 3. They just need to address 2 by adding pitching depth.
I also hope they keep Dom, McNeil and JD. Use those guys as trade chips at the deadline. Nobody can predict injuries and you need to have pieces you can exchange.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
Lacking of hitting was a big issue, especially in the first half.
Mets were leading the league in staff ERA (along with Dodgers) and were only a few games above .500.
And they had that depth despite losing Yamamoto, Peterson, and Luchesi for the season.
the issue with the pitching was mismanagement of injuries to the TOR guys.
they let Syndergaard push his rehab too hard and he had a setback
same with Carrasco and his hamstring, then rushing him to big leagues with no rehab
and kind of same of with JDG and all his ailments when he got pulled early in June/July
and they probably needed a better plan to manage Walker's injuries
Altogether it was bad injury luck (probably in part impacted by the short covid year) + bad decision making.
but I don't think depth was the issue. They ended the year with 6 healthy starters plus 5 on DL (Thor/JDG perhaps ready to come off it mattered). 11 is pretty deep.
Quote:
the Mets didnt get more then 15 starts from any starter. Thats the main reason we were a 75 win team. Sure the offense contributed but when you lose carrasco for most of the year, have Thor get a setback, lose degrom for the second half, lose backup options like Luchessi/Yamamoto/Peterson for the majority of the year its tough. We did all want more depth but they mets did have a ton of starting pitcher injuries.
Injuries will happen, but hopefully we can stay a bit healthier in the rotation next year.
Lacking of hitting was a big issue, especially in the first half.
Mets were leading the league in staff ERA (along with Dodgers) and were only a few games above .500.
100% agree. And the big hits they were getting in the first half were often from Peraza, Pillar, Villar, etc.
Dom, Conforto, McNeil had real bad years.
That's about the max I'd have gone too. Anything above 4 years is worrying for a guy so athletic because once that goes it can go quick (like Cespedes).
I know i initially called him mehduardo, but if you squint Escobar is really a pretty a cheap alternative to baez.
From 2019-2021:
Escobar (about 1500 PA):
67 hrs
228 rbis
.260 ba / .310 obp / .485 slg
7% bb
19% k
Baez (about 1400 PA):
68 hrs
196 rbis
.270 / .310 obp / .500 slg
4% bb
31% k
Baez is the better player, and also brings with him dynamic defense/baserunning. A 2nd gold glove shortstop would have been an incredible luxury. Not to mention seeing Lindor-Baez every day up the middle.
That said Escobar fills 3b which was a bigger weakness last year and gives McNeil a spot to bounce back. I still very much believe in McNeil and don't want to deal him so hopefully he and lindor can get over their shit now.
Johnson/Schilling
Maddux/Glavine
Martinez/Schilling
Halladay/Lee
Quote:
Sandy Koufax and DD?
Johnson/Schilling
Maddux/Glavine
Martinez/Schilling
Halladay/Lee
all 4 of those duos won a World Series except Halladay/Lee and that team not only had Halladay and Lee, but also Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt for maybe the best top 4 of that era (or most eras).
I won't pretend to know the answer here, but is there an example of an infielder who could play SS or 3B but struggled at 2B?
It always seemed to me a spot where you can basically just put someone after they fail at one of those other two spots (like Daniel Murphy and 3B for example).
Not minimizing the importance of 2B defense, only making it less specialized compared to SS or 3B.
I think he's actually better at 2b than 3b. The metrics have him as a good 2b and a neutral 3b.
they also grade McNeil as a good 2b (even last year when he didn't look his best).
McNeil 2020 + 2021 at 2b = +5 OAA (+2 DRS)
Escobar 2020 + 2021 at 2b = +3 OAA (-1 DRS)
Escobar 2020 + 2021 at 3b = -3 OAA (-3 DRS)
Escobar has a lot of bounce in his numbers year to year though. Some years he was positive at 3b and negative at 2b.
Considering McNeil has been a good 2b I think Escobar is the odds on favorite to play mostly at 3b (barring injuries/trades).
Completely passable at 2b
if they were breaking camp today, I think this would be the 13 pitcher staff, the guys in bold are the ones that should need to compete to earn their spots:
JDG
Scherzer
Carrasco
Walker
Peterson or Megill or Williams
Lugo
Diaz
May
SRF
Castro
Smith
Gsellman
Y. Diaz?
Hill should be signed as a 6th starter/swing guy out of the pen. Or someone else who has that capability, though he seems the best candidate.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
No 60 day IR in the off-season so they would have to carry Lucchesi on the 40 man until opening day so there is no extra roster spot gained.
Quote:
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
wont cano take 1 of those spots?
Quote:
In comment 15474062 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
Eric,
They are at 38 on the 40 man roster WITHOUT adding the new FA's.
wont cano take 1 of those spots?
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
Quote:
I guess maybe 40 man but they seem to have enough spots to maneuver. I would guess the immediate 4 moves are likely from the group of Blankenhorn, Payton, Reed, Nogosek, Santos.
After those 5 if they add more pitchers Luchesi is probably out half the year or more so I'd probably clear him before Gsellman, although maybe it's a luxury to have an extra guy on the DL almost like an extra roster spot? Same with Yamamoto I guess?
No 60 day IR in the off-season so they would have to carry Lucchesi on the 40 man until opening day so there is no extra roster spot gained.
I know there's no DL in the offseason I meant that it's a luxury in season. Luchesi is an extra depth arm in the system for 2nd half (or whever he's ready) without costing anyone else roster spot.
If they bring in a few ST invites for example not on 40 man, and decide to keep one, they can probably find a way to wait to convert the invite to a contract after Luchesi gets moved to DL.
Link - ( New Window )
wont cano take 1 of those spots?
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
right so they have 1 open spot plus the 5 obvious cuts. They've added 4 players so have 2 open spots remaining (assuming those 5 cuts).
I think they probably need to add 4 total pitchers which would mean 2 more spots to clear, but 1 of those could be cleared by trade if they decide to add a P that way. And another (Hill?) could come in on a ST invite that converts after they clear Luchesi's roster spot to DL.
Luchesi/Yamamoto/Gsellman would be the next obvious ones if they don't make a trade or they just need to clear more spots but not sure that will happen pre-ST. The CBA probably won't be resolved until right at ST anyway.
Quote:
wont cano take 1 of those spots?
Yes. Cano will also be need to be added to the 40 man.
right so they have 1 open spot plus the 5 obvious cuts. They've added 4 players so have 2 open spots remaining (assuming those 5 cuts).
I think they probably need to add 4 total pitchers which would mean 2 more spots to clear, but 1 of those could be cleared by trade if they decide to add a P that way. And another (Hill?) could come in on a ST invite that converts after they clear Luchesi's roster spot to DL.
Luchesi/Yamamoto/Gsellman would be the next obvious ones if they don't make a trade or they just need to clear more spots but not sure that will happen pre-ST. The CBA probably won't be resolved until right at ST anyway.
They almost certainly can find a better way to use the 40 man via a non-tendered player and/or Rule 5 than mediocre Robert Gsellman.
I'd argue with this (specifically the bold):
Link - ( New Window )
Can't blame Mets for not getting Baez. Good for him. I wonder if they think differently if not for "thumbs down"?
Quote:
to really argue with anything Law says here Link - ( New Window )
I'd argue with this (specifically the bold):
Quote:
He’ll replace what the Mets have lost with Stroman, maybe with fewer innings but comparable performance when he pitches.
That's kind of nitpicking given the overall piece. He also was "less high" on Scherzer as a FA before FA opened so he's not being a hater. He's very high on Stroman. Had him his #1 FA SP.
Can't blame Mets for not getting Baez. Good for him. I wonder if they think differently if not for "thumbs down"?
I don't think that had any impact. They reportedly offered 125 and when he passed they moved on. You don't offer 125 because you don't want a guy.
@Ken_Rosenthal
Javier Báez’s six-year, $140 agreement with the Tigers includes an opt-out after two years and a limited no-trade clause allowing him to block deals to 10 teams each year, sources tell @TheAthletic
. First to report news of the deal: @jonmorosi
and @feinsand
.
Quote:
I keep looking at the other Scherzer thread and it went dead!
Can't blame Mets for not getting Baez. Good for him. I wonder if they think differently if not for "thumbs down"?
I don't think that had any impact. They reportedly offered 125 and when he passed they moved on. You don't offer 125 because you don't want a guy.
True..incident made me less gung ho on him.. but probably didn't factor into their thinking...
he hasn't gotten a CY vote since 2017.
he hasn't gone over 184 innings since 2017.
he hasn't even had a winning record since 2017.
he's never had a sub-3 era for a season.
he's never had a sub 3.5 fip or xera over a full year.
Scherzer did all of those things just this year (including playoff innings) and probably had the best 2nd half of any player in baseball.
so the only way Stroman is comparable to him this year is if Scherzer goes off a cliff right away. Possible but doesn't seem super likely.
Steamer projects Scherzer being 2x as valuable as Stroman next year and putting up a better season than Stroman's best by more than 1 full win.
"5. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 31
2021 WAR: 3.6 / Career WAR: 18.4
After opting out of the 2020 season, Stroman returned with his best campaign yet, posting his lowest ERA and FIP in a full season, along with career-best walk and strikeout rates. He’s still a sinker-slider guy, at least as his primary weapons go, with four other pitches he’ll show, notably an effective splitter he introduced this year. If there’s any reason for concern, it might be that Stroman’s sinker didn’t generate groundballs as well this year — 55 percent of sinkers hit into play were groundballs, compared to 62 percent in 2019 — but the pitch was just as effective at limiting hits, and he has consistently been among the 10 best starters in the majors at limiting home runs. He’s incredibly athletic and seems able to make adjustments as well as any pitcher in baseball, like adding an entirely new pitch in his age-30 season. I think he’s the best bet among free-agent starters this year, with a combination of upside and floor that puts him ahead of anyone else on the list."
But I still think Mets were wise not to sign him.
take fwiw but I heard from someone on the calls last week that it won't happen until they hit real deadlines but they don't have very many issues to resolve bc there's support for most of the status quo. I was skeptical but seeing all the $ thrown around this week it's clear that the players do like the current system.
Quote:
and players shitcanned their meeting after 30 minutes. Grand scheme means nothing but those with dreams of a last minute deal.. not happening.
take fwiw but I heard from someone on the calls last week that it won't happen until they hit real deadlines but they don't have very many issues to resolve bc there's support for most of the status quo. I was skeptical but seeing all the $ thrown around this week it's clear that the players do like the current system.
There was never any reason for either side to ever even consider much traction until there was the threat of at least a condensed ST.
"5. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 31
2021 WAR: 3.6 / Career WAR: 18.4
After opting out of the 2020 season, Stroman returned with his best campaign yet, posting his lowest ERA and FIP in a full season, along with career-best walk and strikeout rates. He’s still a sinker-slider guy, at least as his primary weapons go, with four other pitches he’ll show, notably an effective splitter he introduced this year. If there’s any reason for concern, it might be that Stroman’s sinker didn’t generate groundballs as well this year — 55 percent of sinkers hit into play were groundballs, compared to 62 percent in 2019 — but the pitch was just as effective at limiting hits, and he has consistently been among the 10 best starters in the majors at limiting home runs. He’s incredibly athletic and seems able to make adjustments as well as any pitcher in baseball, like adding an entirely new pitch in his age-30 season. I think he’s the best bet among free-agent starters this year, with a combination of upside and floor that puts him ahead of anyone else on the list."
"best bet" is very different than saying he will pitch as well as scherzer when they are on the field. There is nothing in either players full or recent history to suggest that.
I also think it's pretty telling that both of Stroman's former teams prioritized others over him.
And I say that as someone who agrees with Law that if you asked me who the safest SP investment is to produce in line with the $ I would say Stroman. I think he's a very safe bet to have 3 or 4 3+ fwar seasons over whatever deal he signs. That's very different than saying he will ever pitch comparably to Scherzer.
Can't blame Mets for not getting Baez. Good for him. I wonder if they think differently if not for "thumbs down"?
agree with those above - they wanted him back but the market took it out of reach. The projections on him were 4x20m or 5x20m and they were apparently willing to go beyond that up to 125m. Kind of like Springer last year it just got too expensive/risky for a luxury item.
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
No real indication there is any "favorite" just people connecting the obvious names.
I'd love to see them re-visit Beltran. At least given another interview by Eppler. It seems wrong to me that Cora and Hinch are managing and yet Beltran lost his first opportunity.
I think it's probably a very safe bet that it ends up being 1 of Showalter/Ausmus. Maybe 75%+?
Beltran or any other first timer no thanks. Pay for an experienced manager not someone who is learning on the job.
that would put his AAV slightly above Seager and slightly under Lindor but 2 extra years and obviously a little more in total value.
i'd guess he will cost more than JDD even with 2 extra years of control but Dom Smith or McNeil feels way too rich. Maybe JDD with a 10-20 range prospect?
Martino said they may be interested in cheaper players at big league level > prospects but it sounded like speculation. He threw out Manaea but suggested, Dom or McNeil which seem like big overpays to me.
Steamer projects Manaea to be worth 3 wins and JDD to be worth .7 (109 rc but only playing in 50 games). So if you prorate JDD to 140 games it's 2 wins vs. 3 wins. While saving $7m and getting 2 extra YOC. He was worth 1.6 fwar in 73 games this past season so not crazy. and if they trade Olson/Chapman both corners could be available along with DH.
but if JDD doesn't get it done I wonder if there's a Dom for Manaea+ trade that makes sense? Maybe grab a reliever with control or prospect?
They need some lower cost additions with value to help form the rest of this team (mainly rotation and bullpen).
Everyone can't be a FA add.
@JonHeyman
After signing the biggest deal (by AAV, $43,3M. Scherzer), the Mets are looking for another starting pitcher and one more bat
Dom + McNeil
for
Manaea + Chapman
saves Oakland about $15m and they pick up 6 years of control for 3. Escobar/Guillorme play 2b and mets have best left side of the IF in baseball.
it makes them very right handed so all of a sudden it would actually make Cano important again. But Chapman's D next to Lindor may be worth it.
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
After signing the biggest deal (by AAV, $43,3M. Scherzer), the Mets are looking for another starting pitcher and one more bat
Dom + McNeil
for
Manaea + Chapman
saves Oakland about $15m and they pick up 6 years of control for 3. Escobar/Guillorme play 2b and mets have best left side of the IF in baseball.
it makes them very right handed so all of a sudden it would actually make Cano important again. But Chapman's D next to Lindor may be worth it.
Don't think that's remotely close. Matt Chapman has 2 seasons 6+ fWAR, posted 3.4 fWAR this year, is only 28 years old and is signed through 2023. The A's are cutting money but they aren't taking back 2 guys coming off down years, 1 of which is a 1b/DH and the other is already 30.
120 career OPS+
Best defensive player in baseball (by DRS) over the last 4 seasons (+63), 9 more runs saves than the 2nd best defensive player in the league.
Chapman - 10.7 fwar, 115 rc
both were all stars in 2019.
Chapman's defense is obviously enormously valuable that's why they'd be picking up 3 extra years of control between McNeil/Dom and saving $15m. Not saying it gets it done because I have no idea what Oakland wants, they may prefer prospects. But it's closer than you'd think.
FG says $15m = 1 50 grade prospect.
I don't disagree.
I'd 100% prefer McNeil in the lineup vs. Chapman especially with how right handed they are now.
The defense is special though and next to Lindor it would be crazy. I'm also a believer that 3b is very close to a premium D position.
That might be realistic but would likely depend on if the A's thought 2020 was an aberration or that 2021 was.
I could also see him in a 3 team where the 3rd team is the Twins. they have no 1b, he'd be a very good fit there, and was supposedly half of the ask for Berrios at the deadline.
in hindsight Dom + Mauricio for Berrios may not have been as high a price as it seemed.
Manaea possibly the steadiest of the 3 though. Lowest walk rate, solid k rate, career winning record, gets ground balls.
Rodon better but riskier. Kikuchi more of a league average guy (there's value in that though and no trade cost).
Quote:
stating the obvious but any team that trades for Dom is going to have to have an opening at 1b (which the A's very well may). He's not an OF and a DH has close to zero trade value.
I could also see him in a 3 team where the 3rd team is the Twins. they have no 1b, he'd be a very good fit there, and was supposedly half of the ask for Berrios at the deadline.
in hindsight Dom + Mauricio for Berrios may not have been as high a price as it seemed.
How does Dom and Mauricio compare to Austin Martin and SWR?
Seems like a comparable offer.
I would have done the trade for Berrios before I did the one for Baez because I felt like pitching was more likely going to influence the Mets fleeting chances than a 2B.
but in the end Berrios was still potentially a rental. Blue Jays made it right.
Link - ( New Window )
deGrom
Scherzer
Bassitt
Walker
Kikuchi
Maybe not world beaters 3-5 but very solid.
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Very curious why you would prefer Manaea outside of handedness. Chris Bassitt despite his age has indicators that he's become a VERY good MLB SP. His savant page is a thing of beauty and over his last 38 starts has been worth 4.6 fWAR. Got hit in the face otherwise he was headed towards an even bigger season.
Link - ( New Window )
I thought Greinke was one of those guys who always said he preferred not to play in NY. Didn't he have some mental health issues that he felt like would not make him a good fit under the bright lights?
Quote:
wouldn't hate Greinke as the #5 if they added another arm. 3 truly great SP in one rotation (Greinke obviously has been better days).
I thought Greinke was one of those guys who always said he preferred not to play in NY. Didn't he have some mental health issues that he felt like would not make him a good fit under the bright lights?
That was earlier in his career, more recently he agreed to remove his no trade to go to the Yankees (but the trade fell apart).
Rodon also shares an agent with Scherzer. You’d think there would be some value to “go pitch with Max and deGrom for 2 years, stay healthy and you too could get a mega deal” which wouldn’t be a false statement
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Yeah I like that idea for Rodon...I'd even go shorter if he wanted and let him back up his 21 with another big year for a megadeal somewhere...
@JonHeyman
·
13m
Teams are trying to pry superstar 1B Freddie Freeman from Atlanta. Some say they still don’t think it will happen but r surprised he’s still free. Dodgers, who lost Seager and could move Muncy to 2B, may have best hope for SoCal product, NYY, TOR (h/t Carlos Baerga) reached out.
@JonHeyman
·
15m
Teams are trying to pry superstar 1B Freddie Freeman from Atlanta. Some say they still don’t think it will happen but r surprised he’s still free. Dodgers, who lost Seager and could move Muncy to 2B, may have best hope for SoCal product, NYY, TOR (h/t Carlos Baerga) reached out.
Article says they are interested in Kris Bryant and Rodon or Kikuchi.
I saw the discussion re the pitchers, but not Bryant.
What are your thoughts about him being added to this group of players/lineup?
It seems pretty amazing to me if they signed him.
Thanks, Dennis
Link - ( New Window )
@BWDBWDBWD
did you know MLB used not one, but *two* different balls all season? And that the balls were designed to perform differently?
You didn’t?
Well the players, coaches, execs and scouts I spoke said they didn’t either!
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1m
Rays have full 40-man roster and need to make room for Kluber. Per sources, both Kiermaier and Wendle being discussed in trades.
Would love to see @Mets
continue to use their financial muscle (woah did I really just type that?) and sign Matthew Boyd to a deal that includes a 2023 option. Eye towards 2023 vs. big 2022 expectations in regard to Boyd
I can remember the occasional single big signing, like Pedro Martinez, or Johann Santana, or Gary Carter, each time, just one player.
Can any of you remember something comparable?
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
1m
The Rockies have had discussions with Kris Bryant’s camp, per source, and the interest is real. Given the CBA situation, the clock is ticking for a deal will get done prior to the expiration of the CBA, as time would be tight at this point to get a physical done.
I can remember the occasional single big signing, like Pedro Martinez, or Johann Santana, or Gary Carter, each time, just one player.
Can any of you remember something comparable?
Pedro and Beltran were in the same offseason correct?
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
37s
Mark Canha official with Mets: $2M signing bonus, $12M in 2022, $10.5M in ‘23. Club option in ‘24 for $11.5M or $2M buyout.
Pedro and Beltran were in the same offseason correct?
Yes - then in the following off-season, we acquired Delgado and LoDuca and I believe Xavier Nady (traded when Duaner Sanchez was injured).
Quote:
Good - kikuchi
Better - bassitt or manaea (I prefer manaea)
Best - Rodon on a 3x45m with an opt out at 2
Very curious why you would prefer Manaea outside of handedness. Chris Bassitt despite his age has indicators that he's become a VERY good MLB SP. His savant page is a thing of beauty and over his last 38 starts has been worth 4.6 fWAR. Got hit in the face otherwise he was headed towards an even bigger season.
i just like the profile of former high end prospects who have proven they can be replacement level or better, but not great, approaching age 30. Same as Walker last year. Ray and Gausman would have fit that description at this time last year. Gray and Matz. Wheeler and Scherzer both would have fit that description once upon a time too (obviously at very different price points).
i have 0 issues if they'd choose Bassitt but i'd lean towards the pedigree/3 years younger/lefty. they are close enough i'd have no issue taking on whichever 1 is cheaper to acquire.
See new Tweets
Tweets
Tim Britton Retweeted
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6m
Starling Marte official with Mets: $5M signing bonus ($2.5M each payable on 1/31/22 and 1/31/23). $14.5M in 2022, $19.5M in 2023 and ‘24.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
4m
Oops, and $19.5M in 2025, too!
Quote Tweet
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
· 7m
Starling Marte official with Mets: $5M signing bonus ($2.5M each payable on 1/31/22 and 1/31/23). $14.5M in 2022, $19.5M in 2023 and ‘24.
Scherzer/Marte/Canha/Escobar is a big single offseason like '06, and hopefully similarly puts the roster over the top into contention, but I'd argue last year was actually more of a long term realignment like '05 when they got Beltran. But both of cohen's offseasons are bigger.
Last year they not only traded for Lindor but signed him to 10 year extension. If he gets back to his usual level he could be like having Beltran except for the majority of his career, not just a piece in the middle.
Carrasco could still be an important piece and Walker was an all star who just hit a wall. His stuff passed the eye test and was still a steal at his price tag. Hopefully he can give them a full year this year.
Plus Loup/McCann/May/Pillar/Villar Stroman QO.
The season didn't go the way we wanted but last offseason was pretty explosive. Just a little sloppy with the coaching/leadership/depth.
on 1 year deal i dont care about age but if either pitched well here I'd expect them to get extended. neither is old enough that there's a big downside and they both have about the same number of innings, but all things equal younger is generally better.
I really like Manaea's low walk rate combined with missing bats. Also in his case since he's been able to consistently succeed without great statcast peripherals I actually think that does suggest there may be another level. He already has control and he already knows how to get k's. if he learns how to pitch to weaker contact even just getting his exit velo and hh rate to league average, he could find another level. And presumably that might be possible just with different pitch mix/location vs. needing better raw stuff.
Quote:
Pedro and Beltran were in the same offseason correct?
Yes, apparently Martinez signed in Dec, 2004, and Beltran Jan 2005.
Did that seem more exciting, less exciting, than Marte and Scherzer? And who is yet to be signed?
Yes - then in the following off-season, we acquired Delgado and LoDuca and I believe Xavier Nady (traded when Duaner Sanchez was injured).
Link - ( New Window )
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
they are somewhere right around $270m which I believe would knock the pick back, however I'm not sure if it would knock the pick back this year (2022) or next year (2023).
Also luxury tax thresholds increasing sounds likely to happen in the new CBA, and i'd imagine the draft penalties could change with it.
and who knows what else they throw into the negotiations. Maybe owners ask for a 1 time buy out or something? That would let Cohen knock off Cano's 20m.
Bottomline at this point they should just ignore it. 10 picks later and 1m less in bonus money isn't the end of the world. They can still go overslot if there's a player there they really like.
Quote:
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
I feel that way too. Although I feel more excited about this years players, especially Scherzer, seeing Cohen put his money where his mouth is, has been very exciting for me.
I'm just very (I can't keep using the word exciting...but) excited to see DeGrom, Scherzer at 1, 2. all summer (hopefully, barring injury).
@Joelsherman1
·
30s
The #Rays are indeed engaging seriously on Kevin Kiermaier. #Yankees have had interest b4 and do again as @lindseyadler
reported. But 2 AL East teams unlikely to find match.
Quote:
In comment 15474592 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
I understand Dan. For me, it was the '69 team, because it was so unexpected, and the '86team, because it was so dominant.
Was 2005 the team that had the great defensive infield, or was that '99?
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez? I see that they allowed just 20 earned runs, least of any team since 1900.
Me too, that's what I wanted, Scherzer and Bryant.
Do you feel that with Scherzer and Marte they has satisfied your dream?
I still feel sad about their losing Syndergaard.
Do you think they would have signed Scherzer if they hadn't lost Syndergaard?
Quote:
In comment 15474592 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
39s
MLB and the union are back in negotiations
Dan, I trust your memory and knowledge of Mets history better than my own.
What is your opinion/recollection re the most significant/exciting offseason in Mets history? I think this one is, but my memory dims with age, and I'm not sure it's accurate.
For me nothing really beats 2005 when they for the first time that I could ever recall signed a young superstar (Beltran), a legend (Pedro Martinez).
My favorite mets team ever was 1999. Other teams have been better but the 1999 team (I was only 5 in 1986 so I can lie and say "well 86!!" but for whatever the reason, the 1999 team is it for me.
Yeah I am with you on the '05 offseason... the '99 and 2000 teams have a special place in my heart as well..
However, the '06 team is the one that will forever have me. I'll never get over that team not winning it all..
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
If they had signed Syndergaard, and not Scherzer, what other players do you think they would have signed instead? This is assuming that the 3 players they signed on Sat, ( Marte. Canho, and ?) would still have been signed.
Baez?
Stroman?
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
I was young and still star struck and I thought it couldn't possibly get any better than Doc, Straw, Keith, Gary, Nails, Ronnie, etc.
little did I know I was right.
So maybe they subtract Escobar and just go a little cheaper with someone like Villar for the IF. But I think they still 100% go after Scherzer.
I still wish Syndergaard would have come back, and with the way things have gone I have to think he might even want a do-over there. But he is going to be on an innings limit so unless he was willing to do extended ST and start the year later who knows if he even would have been around for games that matter.
The Mets have signed two starting outfielders in recent days, and they could also sign one of their longest-tenured outfielders to an extension.
According to SNY's Andy Martino, the Mets are interested in talking about a contract extension with Brandon Nimmo.
Per Martino, the Mets having dialogue with Nimmo could happen after the expected MLB lockout.
I was young and still star struck and I thought it couldn't possibly get any better than Doc, Straw, Keith, Gary, Nails, Ronnie, etc.
little did I know I was right.
Yeah, from a season standpoint I'm with Dan on 1999 and 2000. I'm about a year older than Dan looks like, so I was 6 in 1986, so wasn't paying attention at that age.
Buxton got a 7 year deal for 100m which is $14m AAV. He also got really high bonuses if he ever hits MVP.
I think something similar for Nimmo would be really smart. They could go with a deal more along the lines of what they just gave Marte, but if CBT matters why not just spread it out over more years?
Nimmo is older than Buxton so I'd maybe go for a 6 year / 85m deal? That takes him through his age 34 season. His eye at the plate should age well enough.
Mets interested in discussing contract extension with Brandon Nimmo - ( New Window )
If there is a DH, or in games there is a DH, it would be interesting to see Canha hit 9th. I'd try it a few games. The two of them back to back would be interesting.
Quote:
Canha #2 in the AL in pitches seen. Canha/Nimmo = annoy the shit out of other teams.
If there is a DH, or in games there is a DH, it would be interesting to see Canha hit 9th. I'd try it a few games. The two of them back to back would be interesting.
before they signed Mart I though canha would hit 2 behind nimmo and in front of Lindor. with the DH hitting him 9th would be really savvy.
Haven't forgotten him. Think he may be DH.
Quote:
'86 for me (from a season standpoint)
I was young and still star struck and I thought it couldn't possibly get any better than Doc, Straw, Keith, Gary, Nails, Ronnie, etc.
little did I know I was right.
Yeah, from a season standpoint I'm with Dan on 1999 and 2000. I'm about a year older than Dan looks like, so I was 6 in 1986, so wasn't paying attention at that age.
It was a magical year for me between the Mets, Giants, Canadiens and Celtics. I thought every year would be like that. Tough life lesson the next 30+ years.
And I wasn't some bandwagonner those were my teams for a few years before '86 even though when I was 5 my mother bought me a Steelers winter coat (I still haven't forgiven her).
I saw all my teams win again after '86 except the Mets.
as a fan base sounds like fans like you and DMM never got to experience a WS yet, so we're due.
Haven't forgotten him. Think he may be DH.
That wouldn't surprise me but plenty of bigger power hitters have found homes in LF. Not too different than Dom at least being playable in LF. Not saying you want to pencil in either one regularly only that the flexibility is a positive.
Quote:
In comment 15474627 Dennis said:
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
There was no Alfonso on the Mets..he was a Yankee and that was his first name.
Quote:
In comment 15474640 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474627 Dennis said:
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
There was no Alfonso on the Mets..he was a Yankee and that was his first name.
Edgardo alfonso?
Quote:
In comment 15474644 Dennis said:
Quote:
In comment 15474640 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474627 Dennis said:
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
There was no Alfonso on the Mets..he was a Yankee and that was his first name.
Edgardo alfonso?
No such player was ever on the Mets.
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I'd imagine whatever role jdd fills if he's still around ends up going to Vientos by midseason. and he could force the issue sooner. The only comp to his hit/power combo last year is Alonso for Met prospects that I can think of. His 10 games at Cuse were only that, 10 games, but 3 homers, a 16% walk rate, and near 1000 ops...
his triple slash in AA was .281/.346/.580
when he went up to AAA it was .278/.395/.583
thats...consistent.
for comparison Alonso's AA/AAA season triple slash was .285/.395/.579 - but half those at bats were in Vegas. And he was 2 years older.
the season immediately after that he broke the team's HR record.
@NYPost_Mets
·
58s
It might not be a front-burner issue, but the Mets have shown some level of interest in a possible reunion with Jeurys Familia. Bullpen is still an area where the Mets could use multiple additions.
Too many offensive let downs last year.
@NYPost_Mets
·
58s
It might not be a front-burner issue, but the Mets have shown some level of interest in a possible reunion with Jeurys Familia. Bullpen is still an area where the Mets could use multiple additions.
I'd take Familia back. When he's right he is still filthy and he got some of his control back. He faded 2nd half but had a very solid first half.
Need a bounce back year from Lugo and need to hope whoever the manager is can find a way to use Diaz effectively. I don't think he has the head for games that really matter.
Too many offensive let downs last year.
the most encouraging thing they've done is brought in 2 guys whose skills don't slump.
Canha draws walks like Nimmo (who didn't slump last year) and uses the whole field.
Marte is a career .290 hitter / .350 OBP and "speed doesn't slump".
Cano in theory would help in that area too but you can't count on it unless Cohen found him a really good chemist.
So while they need bouncebacks from Lindor/McNeil/Dom they've also added players whose skills should help steady the offense and be a little more bust proof.
Quote:
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
would be great if they can get a buyout for him in new CBA.
Quote:
In comment 15474696 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474644 Dennis said:
Quote:
In comment 15474640 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474627 Dennis said:
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
There was no Alfonso on the Mets..he was a Yankee and that was his first name.
Edgardo alfonso?
No such player was ever on the Mets.
Sorry Moze, you're wrong: Look at the link I posted.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 15474697 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
In comment 15474696 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474644 Dennis said:
Quote:
In comment 15474640 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474627 Dennis said:
Quote:
In '99, with Ventura, Olerud, Alfonso, Ordonez?
Dude... come on.. really?
You're better than making that mistake...
I'm sorry, what mistake. I'm not understanding what you're saying?
There was no Alfonso on the Mets..he was a Yankee and that was his first name.
Edgardo alfonso?
No such player was ever on the Mets.
Sorry Moze, you're wrong: Look at the link I posted.
Link - ( New Window )
Of Course Edgardo Alfonzo was a Met..and a top 5 position player all time on the Mets!!
I said there was no Edgardo Alfonso
I'm really starting to hate the Mariners.
Quote:
In comment 15474709 moze1021 said:
Quote:
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Alfonzo is one of my all-time favorite Mets though.
Alfonzo is one of my all-time favorite Mets though.
Pet peeve. My bad.
Now lets go root for Max Scherser
Quote:
In comment 15474711 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474709 moze1021 said:
Quote:
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 15474740 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474711 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474709 moze1021 said:
Quote:
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
No Dennis... sorry to belabor this here...
His name is Edgardo Alfonzo... with a Z
You typed Alfonso...like Alfonso Soriano..with an S
I was not alluding to his nickname in any way, shape or form.
Pete/Cruz back to back
Quote:
In comment 15474760 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474740 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474711 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474709 moze1021 said:
Quote:
its not like we're talking Schoeneweis or Mientkiewicz here..
The guy is a top 5 Mets player of all time by WAR
Position player, that is...
I would never even attempt that name. He is Doug M to me.
I'd also probably not type Alfonzo, he's Fonzie.
Attaboy...
It's boggled my mind for the near 20 years I've been active on NY sports forums that so many Mets fans don't even know Fonzie's name... and it's the same error over and over and over again.
All in good fun Dennis
Thanks. I was living in Seattle from 1978 to 2016. I didn't have access to NY sports pages, and I didn't know he was "Fonzie".
No Dennis... sorry to belabor this here...
His name is Edgardo Alfonzo... with a Z
You typed Alfonso...like Alfonso Soriano..with an S
I was not alluding to his nickname in any way, shape or form.
OK, thank you. Good to know. It's always good to learn something new.
Pete/Cruz back to back
It would be a nice full circle moment since he started his career as a Met. Funny how many times over 20 years he's come up as a Mets option...lol
Cano really is a big issue for Mets though... best case scenario would be him getting caught again!
Offer him a monster price.
Source confirms: Marlins acquire Joey Wendle from Rays. First: @CraigMish.
Offer him a monster price.
Source confirms: Marlins acquire Joey Wendle from Rays. First: @CraigMish.
Kim Ng seems like the goods. Makes a lot of shrewd moves. got Cimber/Pop/bender for nothing. I liked the Luzardo gamble and then tried to double dip and get Marte back too. text book pump and dump with Thompson for Stallings.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
Quote:
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
Canha is conforto-lite for a discount price. Steadier albeit less upside version of the same solid D, high OBP, and XBH threat. Can play all 3 positions. He's not making much more than Pillar + Almora last year.
I think the days of deals like that standing in the way of adding a reliever they want are over. If there's a reliever they like they are going to get them.
7m
With acquisitions of Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, Marlins seem to be prioritizing defense
Catcher was their weakest defensive position by Defensive Runs Saved last season - Stallings ranked No. 1 in MLB
Wendle can play 3B/SS/2B, had 10 Runs Saved there in 2021
imo defense has been way overlooked despite the analytical revolution.
each team gets 27 outs, great defense literally gives your team more outs than the opposition in every game. and bad defense gives the other team more outs than you get.
defense is the #1 reason the mets were in first for 100 days last year and it fell off when Lindor got hurt, which is not too surprising given he was the 2nd best defender in baseball by OAA last year.
Quote:
In comment 15474667 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
he'd be a really nice platoon partner for Nimmo - who they would be wise to load manage as much as possible. He should be an auto 1-2 days off per week guy now that they have depth.
I think that is the plan, putting Vientos in right.
I am a little perplexed by the Canha signing. 13 million per seems like a bit much for him. Couldn't that money have been better spent on a reliever?
Canha is conforto-lite for a discount price. Steadier albeit less upside version of the same solid D, high OBP, and XBH threat. Can play all 3 positions. He's not making much more than Pillar + Almora last year.
I think the days of deals like that standing in the way of adding a reliever they want are over. If there's a reliever they like they are going to get them.
But doesn't he look like a guy in decline?
Hard hit percentage:
2019: 45.2
2020: 40
2021: 35.4
OPS+
2019: 146
2020: 124
2021: 111
OBP
2019: 396
2020: 387
2021: 358
AVG
2019: 273
2020: 246
2021: 231
good call im a little surprised but i guess it's been a long time since he was anything beyond a jag.
2. last year his first half/second half splits are considerable. supposedly he had a hip injury and wasn't the same after that.
1st half OPS+ 130 (27 XBH, .255/.370/.450)
2nd half OPS+ 82 (16 XBH, .205/.340/.319)
obviously you hope they only sign him if the docs think he's healthy now. but the salary is low enough in a worst case he could function as a part time player so it's a low risk decent upside move if they get the 1st half player.
@ByRobertMurray
Source: Stephen Nogosek is being non-tendered by the New York Mets.
Quote:
Non-tendered.
good call im a little surprised but i guess it's been a long time since he was anything beyond a jag.
Speculation he may head to the Angels because he’s so close with Syndergaard (and from Cali)
@ByRobertMurray
Source: Stephen Nogosek is being non-tendered by the New York Mets.
I believe that leaves Drew Smith as the lone reliever left from the reliever hoarding at the 2017 deadline
Quote:
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
Source: Stephen Nogosek is being non-tendered by the New York Mets.
I believe that leaves Drew Smith as the lone reliever left from the reliever hoarding at the 2017 deadline
i thought that was such a good strategy before they did it and it went so badly. Needed Kim Ng in the FO.
I think Capone said they turned down Tyler O'neil for Duda so Drew Smith is really gonna have to turn things up a notch this year.
AAA depth maybe but he's been an absolute zero with the bat and they have Lee/Plummer. For free, sure why not but 28 this season with a 54 OPS+ (not a typo)
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
Quote:
wouldn’t mind bringing him in to compete as backup OF or AAA depth
AAA depth maybe but he's been an absolute zero with the bat and they have Lee/Plummer. For free, sure why not but 28 this season with a 54 OPS+ (not a typo)
Oh, he’s been a bust for them, but he did flash for some periods last year. Best case scenario, he would be an upgrade from an Almora and allow younger players like Plummer and Lee to get full time at bats at AAA
I figured the Mets were owed some reliever luck after the Matt Lindstrom and Heath Bell (among others) era L's.
Quote:
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
I would have let Williams go at hisi projected 4 million but nothing surprising to me.
Marte, Canha, and Escobar get a combined PC at 6pm.
All will be zooms...
Quote:
FLUSHING, N.Y., November 30, 2021 — The New York Mets today announced they have tendered contracts to the following players: INF Pete Alonso, INF Travis Blankenhorn, RHP José Butto, RHP Miguel Castro, INF/OF J.D. Davis, RHP Edwin Díaz, RHP Yennsy Díaz, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Khalil Lee, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Seth Lugo, INF Ronny Mauricio, C Patrick Mazeika, INF/OF Jeff McNeil, RHP Tylor Megill, C Tomás Nido, OF Brandon Nimmo, RHP Adam Oller, LHP David Peterson, RHP Jake Reed, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, INF Dominic Smith, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Thomas Szapucki, INF Mark Vientos, RHP Trevor Williams and RHP Jordan Yamamoto.
The Mets did not tender contracts to the following players: RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Stephen Nogosek and OF Mark Payton.
Dan, any surprises here for you? Either omissions or additions?
I don't see anything shocking here. Was expecting non-tenders to be a little deeper but no big deal.
And all he did was hit the ball better and strike out less than pretty much anyone else in the game from the day he debuted.
He is Ben Zobrist. And Ben Zobrist won 2 WS back to back for 2 different teams, playing multiple positions, and imo was the MVP in both postseasons.
They need to resolve whatever the differences were between McNeil and Lindor because McNeil has the ability to be 1 of the best 2b in all baseball over the next 3 years and his bat control is elite. Do not give up elite skills.
just need to be sure if you keep him and pencil him into a roster spot which one you're getting.
I guess my point is the Mets need pitching more than 2020 or 2021 McNeil.
And all he did was hit the ball better and strike out less than pretty much anyone else in the game from the day he debuted.
He is Ben Zobrist. And Ben Zobrist won 2 WS back to back for 2 different teams, playing multiple positions, and imo was the MVP in both postseasons.
They need to resolve whatever the differences were between McNeil and Lindor because McNeil has the ability to be 1 of the best 2b in all baseball over the next 3 years and his bat control is elite. Do not give up elite skills.
Yeah I really hope we don't sell low on McNeil or sell at all. I hope Lindor isn't causing issues behind the scenes that he wants him out of here.
his on base% was between .381-.384
his rc+ was between 131-144
walk rate progressively improved from 5.5%-9.5%
k rate was consistently good between 10%-13%
the BA, OBP, RC, and k-rate I believe would all be best on the team over that period of time.
then 2021 happened. first he had the fight with Lindor. Then the injury. And on top of all that extreme bad luck (his BABIP was 60 points under his previous career average - so as is almost always the case with all players his batting average was also 60 points below his career average).
with all that his BB/K rates remained steady.
his whiff rate was almost 90th percentile.
his outs above average were 90th percentile.
there wasn't any major regression to his exit velocities or HH%. he actually had his 2nd best year by avg. exit velocity and set a new best for max exit velocity.
he may be 1 of the best bounce back candidates in the entire game and steamer agrees projecting him to a 115 RC in 2022 and near 3 fwar season (prorated to 550 ABs). Which is imo a pretty conservative projection too.
2021 sucked for pretty much the entire offense but they don't need to purge everyone. Remember the offense was pretty good in 2019-2020.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
· 30m
Reds are still fielding interest in Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray. Chance for a trade today.
what drop from 2019 to 2020?
2019 his wrc was 144
2020 his wrc was 133
2019 his obp was 384
2020 his obp was 383
in 2020 his walk rate improved by 3% (from 6 to 9%)
in 2020 his k rate improved by 2% (from 13% to 11%)
in 2019 he put up 4.6 fwar
in 2020's 52 games he put up 1.2 fwar (x3 for a full season = 3.6 fwar)
he hit fewer homers in 2020, but that's about it. Everything else was comparable.
also not sure what your point is about defense because McNeil has consistently been a rated as a positive defender at 2b.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
Gray would be cheaper due to contract status.
For the cost of what it would cost, I would much rather go for Rodon.
Quite a bit. Mauricio likely would be the headliner but look what Berrios cost. Castillo 2 years of control.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
Quote:
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
Reds have the ROY at 2b. McNeil wouldn't be a big target for them.
Quote:
What would it take to get a Castillo in terms of players/prospects?
Quite a bit. Mauricio likely would be the headliner but look what Berrios cost. Castillo 2 years of control.
Berrios had 3 yoc at the deadline right?
for the mets it's actually better to have fewer years of control because that should make trade cost less.
I'd do Mauricio+ for Castillo. I wouldn't do Mauricio + McNeil but would probably do Dom or JDD (obviously prefer it to be JDD).
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
Quote:
In comment 15475581 five5 said:
Quote:
What would it take to get a Castillo in terms of players/prospects?
Quite a bit. Mauricio likely would be the headliner but look what Berrios cost. Castillo 2 years of control.
Berrios had 3 yoc at the deadline right?
for the mets it's actually better to have fewer years of control because that should make trade cost less.
I'd do Mauricio+ for Castillo. I wouldn't do Mauricio + McNeil but would probably do Dom or JDD (obviously prefer it to be JDD).
Berrios had 1.5 years remaining on his deal at the time of the trade.
Quote:
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
No disagreement here. Just saying if the Guardians called the Mets and said Ramirez can be had, I would in fact include Alvarez. Ramirez is that good.
Quote:
In comment 15475569 KDavies said:
Quote:
had a BA of at least .311 each year, and an OPS of at least .836.
IMO last year was an outlier. There was something going on. Smith, Conforto, McNeil all had terrible years, well below what is expected. My guess is it was hitting coach/philosophy.
McNeil is cost-controlled and one of the best 2B in the game. If he is traded for a Gray or something that is one thing. But I expect he will be back at 2B this year.
100% agree. I don't think I'd trade 3 years of McNeil for 2 of Gray, but 2 years of Castillo yes even expecting that it would probably take McNeil+.
Trading McNeil was also a much simpler proposition when Baez was the potential replacement. Now that he's off the table alternatives are a lot less appealing. Escobar could play 2b but that's a downgrade. They could spend big on Bryant at 3b but then they are blocking Baty/Vientos and very RH dominant.
Reds have the ROY at 2b. McNeil wouldn't be a big target for them.
they could put him in LF. that's what the mets likely would have done if Baez accepted the deal a month ago. they could have still signed Marte too and put Nimmo in RF (and no Canha).
If you're a believer in McNeil's offense (which presumably any team trading for him would be) a 130+ rc can play anywhere.
Berríos, a two-time All-Star, is under team control through the end of next season"
So Castillo has more time left on his deal than Berrios did.
Quote:
In comment 15475597 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
trade any Mets prospect (including Alvarez) for Jose Ramirez. Not that he's available but he's a great player "more likely" to be available than a Soto.
Yeah, he is at the Soto level (except for years of control), but IMO a Ramirez could be had without an Alvarez at the deadline if the Indians won't be resigning him, as he is a FA next year.
No disagreement here. Just saying if the Guardians called the Mets and said Ramirez can be had, I would in fact include Alvarez. Ramirez is that good.
Definitely not used to calling them the Guardians.
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130M contract with the Mets includes four premium tickets to each home game. Also says he may purchase four tickets to each post-season home game. $200K for MVP, $200K for Cy Young, $150K for World Series MVP, $100K for LCS MVP, $100K for All-Star
Doesn't make sense for DHs like Cruz and Schwarber to sign now. If there is universal DH, the options would greatly increase.
@RTPiersall
·
6m
The Mets have made a pair of minor signings:
The team inked southpaw Rob Zastryzny and catcher Nick Dini to minor league contracts.
Zastryzny last pitched for the Chicago Cubs in 2018 and has a career 4.41 ERA in 18 games.
Dini appeared in 20 games for the Royals in 2019.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
I just looked him up to see when the Mets let him go. Traded for SS Jorge Valendia the year Ordonez broke his arm. Valendia had 11 hits in 74 ABs in his Mets career.
Quote:
Cruz is one of my favorite non-Mets ever. Still absolutely crushing the ball. Pete/Cruz back to back in a line... oh baby
I just looked him up to see when the Mets let him go. Traded for SS Jorge Valendia the year Ordonez broke his arm. Valendia had 11 hits in 74 ABs in his Mets career.
Reminds me of losing Darren O'Day for what I recall was 1 start from somebody lol
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
Their 114 RC projection is perfectly fine though so if you want a fair approximation of his steamer value next year it's easy enough to project him to a full season of at bats. Their at bat projection is likely low because of depth chart uncertainty. Just adjusting for 550 at bats brings his steamer projection to 2.5 fwar which is above average.
Also their projected D value on him is bizarrely negative even though he had a +4 DRS and was 89th percentile in OAA at 2b - both in line with his career averages. So unless you think he's about to go over a defensive cliff or unless you are penalizing him for his bad metrics on other positions last year, his steamer projection adjusted to a full season at 2b is probably 3+ fwar.
And re: Murphy, there's zero worry he will turn into Murphy. His first 2.5 years were as good as Murphy's 2.5 years with the Nats which were the best of his career - so he has already been the good version of Murphy, except with positive value defense instead of negative.
Dan Murphy as a Nat (1380 PA) - .329 / .380 / .550
Jeff McNeil '18-'20 (1024 PA) - .319 / .383 / .501
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130M contract with the Mets includes four premium tickets to each home game. Also says he may purchase four tickets to each post-season home game. $200K for MVP, $200K for Cy Young, $150K for World Series MVP, $100K for LCS MVP, $100K for All-Star
Is the ticket thing some sort of anomaly or something? Guy just got paid $130M, give him whatever tickets he wants to each home game. Just thought it is odd to bring that up by Rosenthal.
Quote:
is almost as much an outlier as 2021 when you include stats like ISO, wOBA and wRC.
and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.
that's basically replaceable.
If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).
Their 114 RC projection is perfectly fine though so if you want a fair approximation of his steamer value next year it's easy enough to project him to a full season of at bats. Their at bat projection is likely low because of depth chart uncertainty. Just adjusting for 550 at bats brings his steamer projection to 2.5 fwar which is above average.
Also their projected D value on him is bizarrely negative even though he had a +4 DRS and was 89th percentile in OAA at 2b - both in line with his career averages. So unless you think he's about to go over a defensive cliff or unless you are penalizing him for his bad metrics on other positions last year, his steamer projection adjusted to a full season at 2b is probably 3+ fwar.
And re: Murphy, there's zero worry he will turn into Murphy. His first 2.5 years were as good as Murphy's 2.5 years with the Nats which were the best of his career - so he has already been the good version of Murphy, except with positive value defense instead of negative.
Dan Murphy as a Nat (1380 PA) - .329 / .380 / .550
Jeff McNeil '18-'20 (1024 PA) - .319 / .383 / .501
k
Darren O'Day... 13 seasons into his big league career (3.46 FIP), Deolis Guerra and Yusmiero Petit are still big leaguers as well.
@RTPiersall
·
6m
The Mets have made a pair of minor signings:
The team inked southpaw Rob Zastryzny and catcher Nick Dini to minor league contracts.
Zastryzny last pitched for the Chicago Cubs in 2018 and has a career 4.41 ERA in 18 games.
Dini appeared in 20 games for the Royals in 2019.
Not expecting anything from the lefty, but Dini could be interesting. I could at least see him challenging Mazeika for backup C to be called up should McCann or Nido get injured.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.
McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.
Sometimes guys just have bad years.
buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.
Quote:
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
Why?
I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.
Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)
So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).
I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.
McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.
Sometimes guys just have bad years.
buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.
Yeah, there is definitely that x factor that nobody can explain when it comes to why guys have an off year out of the blue.
I think with McNeil the worry is that this is not an "off year" but that the league has figured him out. I don't really buy that for many of the reasons you mentioned (continuing low k and whiff rates).
However, he does need to adjust his approach and be more selective, especially with that low, outside pitch.
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:
Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11
Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20
Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
· 1h
Freddie Freeman is the superstar free agent to watch today. While many have expected him to return to Atlanta, the Yankees and Dodgers are among the teams with interest, as @JonHeyman has noted. Freeman also could fit the Red Sox. @MLB @MLBNetwork
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:
Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11
Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20
Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24
Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
chase rate, exit velocity, barrel%, hh rate still not.
it does look a lot more like 2019 with the number of doubles down the RF line vs. LF.
Quote:
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:
Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11
Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20
Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24
Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.
Quote:
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.
The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.
2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.
The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.
the fact that the underlying contact metrics are so similar suggests more of an approach issue. his exit velocities went up even without pulling the ball more so not saying an injury is impossible but would have been a weird injury where he could generate more power but in a different direction.
and again when taken with the fact that multiple hitters regressed just like he did and a new analytics team was implemented, a fresh start with a new hitting coach seems like the elephant in the room.
Any changes to pick forfeiture would go into effect for the following off-season per Keith Law.
Quote:
Forfeiture for QO free agents goes away?
Any changes to pick forfeiture would go into effect for the following off-season per Keith Law.
He wasn't implying there would be changes, the question was posed IF there were.
Quote:
In comment 15475711 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:
Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11
Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20
Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24
Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.
Forgot that Castellanos got the QO. Wonder what is going to happen with Conforto? Will he get a multi-year contract?
haven't heard much about it but it came up in 2020 so assume it would come up again?
this is 100% guess but most of the horse trading is likely to be in that area. I'd guess the easy gives from owners to players are a salary floor, higher lux tax threshold, looser restrictions on fa mobility (like the pick forfeiture), and the DH. All of those things promote more spending to the players. Probably also some token gives to the conditions for minor leaguers.
I don't know what the owners are going to want from the players from their end, but maybe it's just a matter of those are the hostages they are willing to give up to maintain the status quo of the overall system?
with the way the last week went i find it hard to believe there's enough motivation on the players side to try to blow up the 6 years of team control until FA, and i expect that to be the place where the owners draw the line in the sand.
yeah if mcneil can bring back something you can't get any other way (like Castillo) you consider it but I'd deal Mauricio before I deal McNeil and a high upside 20 year old prospect is typically going to be more what a selling team is looking for than a 29 year old.
I wouldn't deal either for anything other than a true TOR arm.
agree here as well - most likely there will be some token gives but it seems like the status quo is going to remain.
To be clear, I think Tony Clark is a jackass. I'm not "pro-MLBPA", I'm pro the talent themselves.
MLBPA is staunchly against any type of cap, but it would not shock me if they are getting a smaller percentage of revenue as a result. Furthermore that setup would 1) alleviate a lot of the current issues around arbitration, 2) create parity if there is a floor requirement, and 3) stop the constant bickering over changes like expansion of playoffs since the MLBPA would be incentivized
@SotoC803
·
17s
That sure sounded like the #Mets are out on making anymore "big" moves for position players.
Focus is on another Starting Pitcher and Relievers.
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
12s
Mets general manager Billy Eppler says the team has formed a "pretty wide" list of managerial candidates. The club is still deciding which to call/ask permission to interview.
Sounds like the process will pick up later this week, with formal interviews happening "very soon."
@Britt_Ghiroli
·
6m
Scherzer said the Dodgers limiting his pitch count and trying to keep him fresh for the postseason lowered his work capacity and he thinks led to his dead arm. Said in DC he was relied on and pushed to consistently go 110 pitches every five days so more built up for ‘19 WS run
@mike_petriello
·
1m
Not really buying Scherzer's argument that not letting him go deeper in reg season hurt him later.
He made 11 starts for LA. 9 times: 92+ pitches. Other two? Big rain delay; injured hammy.
I am *definitely* buying that Scherzer wants SP in general to be allowed to go deeper.
Headlining a deal? Maybe, one for one? No. Castillo is 9th in baseball by fWAR since opening day 2020. Mauricio is a good, but not "elite" prospect with a high variance. 2 seasons of Castillo is a worth a ton
I'm very impressed with Scherzer's emotional maturity; his care for, and about his family, his desire to succeed, his thoughtfulness. He deems like more than just a "jock".
He apparently really wants to play with DeGrom. I think that both of them share a level of professionalism and commitment to their profession that is noteworthy in this day when so many athletes (I think) are spoiled, narcissistic, grown up children.
Link - ( New Window )
@MattSpiegel670
·
7m
Have heard now from 2 different sources that the Cubs and Marcus Stroman are hot and heavy in discussion right now. Would absolutely love that signing.
"...what they’ve never witnessed is a free agent they signed help lead them to a world championship. Perhaps Max Scherzer will be the first."
Dennis
Link - ( New Window )
Ron Washington? Fredi Gonzalez? Jay Bell?
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
Quote:
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
In fairness, Scherzer noted he didn't know Escobar, he said he trusted what ex-Met (briefly) Brian Dozier said about him. I'm not in any way doubting Escobar is a good guy/teammate just clarifying Scherzer himself wasn't vouching for him.
it's possible but that seems like a less significant reason than the LAD just being in a better position to potentially win a WS as the defending champs. Temperature wise NY is more volatile but having lived in both LA isn't dramatically warmer and probably consistently cooler in the evenings because it's dry.
+1. Me too, Dan. I'm very impressed with Scherzer, the person. To me, that's more important than anything else.
I understand this is a sports website, and we're discussing athletes, but to me, there is a wider world that is more important than just one aspect of someone's life.
Quote:
In comment 15475992 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.
Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.
Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.
huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
+1. totally agree, Eric, with everything you stated. Like you, I was interested to read what Scherzer said about Escobar also. Sounds like Escobar must be a good guy. I think The Mets did pretty well for themselves.
In fairness, Scherzer noted he didn't know Escobar, he said he trusted what ex-Met (briefly) Brian Dozier said about him. I'm not in any way doubting Escobar is a good guy/teammate just clarifying Scherzer himself wasn't vouching for him.
Yes, you're right, Dan. Thanks for the clarification.
how many times in the last 10, 20, 30 years has this franchise "had enough" of 1 thing or another and not added more only to end up in short supply of what they thought they had enough of? literally happened this year with what Zack called a "special clubhouse" that simply...wasn't.
usually by the time you realize you dont have enough of something it's too late. So love the idea of constantly doubling down and adding value. Nothing is ever stable so you are either getting better or getting worse.
Also aside from the team I really liked Scherzer's comments on the PA and making the game better. Understanding how he got his contracts because of the ones signed before the ones he's signed. Just seems like a guy who really gets it.
how many times in the last 10, 20, 30 years has this franchise "had enough" of 1 thing or another and not added more only to end up in short supply of what they thought they had enough of? literally happened this year with what Zack called a "special clubhouse" that simply...wasn't.
usually by the time you realize you dont have enough of something it's too late. So love the idea of constantly doubling down and adding value. Nothing is ever stable so you are either getting better or getting worse.
Also aside from the team I really liked Scherzer's comments on the PA and making the game better. Understanding how he got his contracts because of the ones signed before the ones he's signed. Just seems like a guy who really gets it.
Eric, I think what you wrote is so interesting.
"you are either getting better or getting worse."
2nd law of thermodynamics (see below link).
"as energy is transferred or transformed, more and more of it is wasted."
As you noted, doubling down and adding value is crucial.
Link - ( New Window )
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
3m
Marcus Semien described Ron Washington as “the most influential baseball man in my life,” moments ago during his introductory press conference in Arlington. @MLBNetwork
@Rangers
@Braves
His claims don't REALLY hold up as he apparently was allowed to throw 92+ pitches in all but 2 starts, 1 he got hurt and the other was impacted by a rain delay.
I have my doubts as well but I think he'd be a home run. Success in Texas, coaching with 2 well regarded/winning franchises (Oakland/Atl) and players absolutely love him (despite not being a pushover). Hate to make the comparison because it's not based on race but the same way the players love Dusty Baker but he also is a hardass.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
2m
Mets president Sandy Alderson and Mets GM Billy Eppler will introduce Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha via Zoom today at 6:00 pm.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Superutilityman Chris Taylor and the Los Angeles Dodgers are making progress on a deal, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN. It’s expected to be completed today.
Link - ( New Window )
I love it. And I like that guy's twitter handle as well lol.
Quote:
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
i'm surprised he'd make the comment with that being the case. a little odd but maybe there's more to it than we know. maybe LAD were pushing him to rest over the last month and he didn't want to, but there were small accommodations he made but didn't agree with?
ex. his starts on 9/6 and 9/12 he had pitched 8 innings without allowing earned runs but wasn't allowed to finish either game. On 9/12 in particular he had 92 pitches and was on a 1 hitter with 0 walks and up 8-0.
Also not sure if this was impacted by rain delays but he had several starts in Sept 6 days apart instead of 5.
9/6 + 9/12
9/12 + 9/18
9/23 + 2/29
I'd be a hypocrite if I said I didn't agree with the Dodgers trying to rest him though. Maybe there was a better way to do it strategically?
Also I guess we can throw out the 6 man rotation ideas lol.
Quote:
a loon lol Link - ( New Window )
I love it. And I like that guy's twitter handle as well lol.
+1.
Quote:
In comment 15476069 KDavies said:
Quote:
in the Nationals games, he exceeded 100 pitches 11 times. In the 11 games with the Dodgers, he exceeded 100 pitches 5 times (and as you mentioned, it may be more if those weren't effected). His high for both clubs was 109 pitches. Yeah, I don't see much of a difference there.
Quite frankly, it doesn't even really matter what Scherzer "thinks" in regard to this. The numbers show he wasn't babied by the Dodgers, and it likely wasn't the cause of his dead arm. The massive innings increase (because #2020) more likely was the cause. He's a mad dog competitor and never wants to leave the game so maybe a specific start sticks in his mind or the Nats completely allowed him to do his own thing in preparation but when it comes to actual pitch totals, it's not really an "opinion" thing. The data says both Nats/Dodgers essentially allowed the same pitch counts.
i'm surprised he'd make the comment with that being the case. a little odd but maybe there's more to it than we know. maybe LAD were pushing him to rest over the last month and he didn't want to, but there were small accommodations he made but didn't agree with?
ex. his starts on 9/6 and 9/12 he had pitched 8 innings without allowing earned runs but wasn't allowed to finish either game. On 9/12 in particular he had 92 pitches and was on a 1 hitter with 0 walks and up 8-0.
Also not sure if this was impacted by rain delays but he had several starts in Sept 6 days apart instead of 5.
9/6 + 9/12
9/12 + 9/18
9/23 + 2/29
I'd be a hypocrite if I said I didn't agree with the Dodgers trying to rest him though. Maybe there was a better way to do it strategically?
Also I guess we can throw out the 6 man rotation ideas lol.
Mike Petriello
@mike_petriello
·
3h
Not really buying Scherzer's argument that not letting him go deeper in reg season hurt him later.
He made 11 starts for LA. 9 times: 92+ pitches. Other two? Big rain delay; injured hammy.
I am *definitely* buying that Scherzer wants SP in general to be allowed to go deeper.
Mike Petriello
@mike_petriello
·
3h
Also worth noting, I think that he's a 36 year old who had his innings jump from 67.1 in 2020 to 179.1 in 2021.
But Max as a defender of all SP, totally get that, and have no problem with it.
just saying the overall numbers are one thing but I no issue believing that the LAD may have had conversations with him about taking the foot off the gas in September. He very easily could have wanted to stay in games 1 inning longer.
aren't we the same people who in this thread were suggesting a 6 man rotation for all next year to keep him fresh? it stands to reason he has heard all sorts of people (LAD included) suggest stuff like that and disagreed with it.
just saying the overall numbers are one thing but I no issue believing that the LAD may have had conversations with him about taking the foot off the gas in September. He very easily could have wanted to stay in games 1 inning longer.
aren't we the same people who in this thread were suggesting a 6 man rotation for all next year to keep him fresh? it stands to reason he has heard all sorts of people (LAD included) suggest stuff like that and disagreed with it.
Because he's known as an absolute maniac of a competitor known to scream into his glove in the dug out INNINGS after being pulled. His velocity was in fact down towards the end of the season and none of his pitch counts suggest they were using him significantly less. He had a dead arm, easier to blame something like "I wanted to throw more" than "I'm 36 and I threw a LOT more innings in 2021".
Because he's known as an absolute maniac of a competitor known to scream into his glove in the dug out INNINGS after being pulled. His velocity was in fact down towards the end of the season and none of his pitch counts suggest they were using him significantly less. He had a dead arm, easier to blame something like "I wanted to throw more" than "I'm 36 and I threw a LOT more innings in 2021".
no disagreement but he could be right. it's chicken or the egg. he blames not throwing as much, we'd probably say it was just age + workload.
what i like about the story is less what happened but more that whatever happened he's still clearly bothered by it and obsessed enough to want to find out why and what he could have done differently. Marcus Stroman only has that level of obsession with twitter.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
2m
Javier Baez
Tigers
$140M/6
$20M - 2022
$22M - 2023
$25M - 2024
$25M - 2025
$24M - 2026
$24M - 2027
opt out after 2023
2022-2023: $1M for MVP, 100K for Hank Aaron. 2024-2027: $2M for MVP, $250K for Hank Aaron. $1M for MVP, Aaron. WS/MVP same season. More Award $
LNTP (10 Teams).
@EvanDrellich
·
42m
Some details: MLB offered to raise 1st luxury tax tier to $214m, peaking at $220m
MLBPA free agency proposal:
Year 1 of deal, no change, 6 years service to become FA
Years 2-3: 6 years—or if age 30 1/2 & 5 years of service
Years 4-5: 6 years—or if age 29 1/2 & 5 years service
this is a guess based mostly on his opt out and his comments in the last few weeks, but i think he is the antithesis of Scherzer.
Scherzer talked about the guys who set precedents before him that helped him get his contract.
Stroman has put down just about every other FA SP to prove that he's better and should get more. Including Thor, Gausman, and Matz who I believe were all his teammates at one time or another!
Scherzer has pitched through a million injuries and was willing to try coming out of the BP for LAD.
Stroman opted out because he pulled his calf and didn't want to injure himself further ahead of FA.
The decision to bring Stroman back isn't a contest between him and Scherzer but I think I'd just move on. Those types of things aren't lost on anyone in the clubhouse.
agreed - Cohen seems to be the most willing to cut people loose, and I'll bet he doesn't like how Stroman postured last year vs. this year.
17s
Cubs are in serious talks with Marcus Stroman @MattSpiegel670 1st
now
Dylan Bundy Twins deal: $4M salary next year w $1m buyout on 11m option in 2023. $5M guarantee
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Yusei Kikuchi has 3-year offers. Mets, Jays are interested though their specific offers are unknown. Kikuchi was thought to have gambled by opting out of $13M for 1 year after a year in which he was an All-Star in the first half before struggling late.
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets, Angels and Padres are among many teams to have shown interest in star free agent Kris Bryant, whose marketing is now percolating, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Astros among others who have checked in.
Chavez was also with Alderson in Oakland IIRC
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Quote:
What's the draw? Backend lefty? Bleh
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Ok good. Thought I was losing it. lol
Im a believer that the backend is actually pretty well hedged with Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and eventually Lucchesi. You can even hopefully throw Hill into that mix as depth too assuming we can re-sign him. Those arent great options but as fill-ins or 5th SP types I think they'll do. Where I feel we are not hedged is the TOR. deGrom is a ?, Sherzer's age is up there, and we have no idea what Carrasco will do. Adding a high end option like Rodon (risks and all) just makes a lot more sense for me.
1 year "project" I'm in. 3 years is silly
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
I like all 3 of the A's SP AND all 3 of the Reds SP. Rather not lock themselves into Kikuchi for 3 years when there will be other options.
1m
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
yea sounds like our 6 man dream isn't gonna fly with mad max.
all the more reason to get as good of a pitcher as they can without giving up too much in trade cost. i'm with you on 1 of the oak/cincy 6, though my preference would be for whoever we can get without giving up McNeil or Mauricio. Dom if we must but try to get a 2nd depth pitcher back. Someone else's Megill or Trevor Williams (with an option).
then the only question is how much more $ is it worth to just sign Rodon.
between Eppler playing the A's a ton and Sandy having worked there I'd guess if they like one of their guys that's what they will do.
I keep hearing Taylor Rogers is a target of Eppler via Heffner's request (Twins connection).
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6s
Dodgers’ deal with Chris Taylor, per major-league source: Four years, $60M with fifth-year option that can increase the total value to $73M.
Jack Ramsey @jackwramsey
2m
Jersey numbers, per MLB.com;
McNeil: 1
Marte: 6
Escobar: 10
Canha: 19
Scherzer: 21
poor kike. imagine what he'd have gotten paid this year.
Brandon Warne
@Brandon_Warne
·
2h
You guys in the media corps are going to *ADORE* Escobar.
the story is nuts it was ankle surgery. he almost retired.
and it was at the beginning of covid and he's been on 4 teams since. talk about performing under non-ideal conditions.
Link - ( New Window )
Deesha
@DeeshaThosar
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
Confirmed with the team. Mets have to jump through some licensing hoops/red tape before they can make it official. These are the unofficial, official jersey numbers.
Freeman was in fact in California as of yesterday...
Quote:
but I don't think we are that lucky.
Freeman was in fact in California as of yesterday...
so was Stroman until he hopped a flight to CHI. it seems like 50% of athletes today are in CA during the offseason.
if anyone is gonna steal freeman though I'd bet LAD. I am shocked they didn't retain at least 1 of Scherz/Seager.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Right-hander Nick Martinez and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $20 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Martinez, 31, starred for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan this year (1.62 ERA) and gets opt-outs after first and second year.
Link - ( New Window )
it cost the Brewers two prospects in addition.
it cost the Brewers two prospects in addition.
Typical Chain Bloom/Rays type move. JBJ only makes $2 million more than Renfroe this year. ($8 million buyout, $12 million next year for Bradley, and arbitration for Renfroe)
From what I've read about Renfroe, he was not good defensively, with the exception of throwing out runners. Although he had 31 HRs in a career year last year, he had a .315 OBP. Had a 2.3 WAR. Bradley was atrocious last year, but every year before that had a WAR of at least 2 with the Red Sox for the past 6 years.
A lot of fans upset about trading a 31 HR guy for a .160 hitter. But realistically, if last year was an aberration for JBJ, you are trading similarly valued players (though their skills are very different).
From the Sox perspective, they are getting possibly similarly valued players, but one that may fit them better. JBJ can mentor Duran in playing CF defense at Fenway. They have Duran, JBJ, Verdugo, and Kike to patrol the OF, and they get two good looking prospects out of the deal: a speedy IF and a strong hitting corner IF
was thinking a good replacement system for that would be making it more like the NFL comp pick structure where the sandwich picks get awarded but nobody loses their natural picks.
I think it would also be cool if they changed the rules on who qualifies for comp picks.
Ex. they should incentivize low budget teams to sign affordable but non minimum veterans to 1 year deals because those are the fringe guys who inevitably get squeezed the most and lose jobs because of the non-competitive teams at the bottom of the league who are just looking to maximize earnings/draft capital.
if you got a comp pick for any non-minimum FA you lose who gets a multi-year deal elsewhere that would incentivize the low budget teams of the world to try to sign those less in demand vets in hopes that they put up bounce back seasons and move on the following year to bring them back a comp pick. the bigger the deal the higher the comp pick.
that aligns getting more draft capital with signing more/better low to mid level FA. the top of the market FA are obviously doing fine bc the big market teams are spending.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
he was terrible last year but in his last 6 straight years in bos he was worth at least 1.5 fwar and averaged more like 2.5 (he went over 2 in 4 of his last 5).
the only reason he'd do the buy out next year is if he has a monster year and thinks he can get a much bigger deal so they are pretty well hedged no matter which way he performs - unless he completely tanks like last year.
if he plays both years he gets about $21m, and likely produces at least 3 or 4 fwar which would make it a slight surplus value.
if he opts out the buyout would bring his total to $17m for 1 year but he likely only does that if he has a big year, which would be more than 2 fwar so again they'd have surplus value.
the tanking scenario is possible but he has so much of his value in defense he starts with 1 leg up.
adding Correa and shifting Boegarts to 3b/Devers to 1b would take that team to another level. they are close to their payroll from last year so presumably they'd only do that if the LTT goes up.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
yup, in a way it even penalizes them too because they'd probably end up with lesser picks than the 2 they are getting for Thor/Conforto since those deals are going to be a lot less than what they spent on scherzer. Depending on how they do it.
but net-net would still be a good trade off for big market teams because on the positive side they could have been more active on Robbie Ray and all the others who got QO's.
it would add in a whole new avenue though for the Reds/Marlins of the world to add draft capital though. Make smart 1 year signings of quality players who can go on to multi-year deals and you get more draft picks. And those teams become more competitive in the process. Win-win for the game.
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
Quote:
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
The Red Sox either felt comfortable with simply exchanging medicals (which is allowed but less common) or both players had their physicals prior to the deadline. Because JBJ is an ex Red Sox my guess is it's the first one.
Quote:
In comment 15476735 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
trades can be discussed but not consummated (no physicals during a lock out) and player communication with any team officials is explicitly forbidden. An example given (he just retired) but Al Avila would have to file for a formal petition for a waiver to attend his sons hypothetical wedding. Managerial and coaching hires are allowed, though even this is impacted as teams can't even speak to their ex-players (unless retired).
So how did the JBJ/Renfroe trade happen? were they able to get physicals done in time?
from Bloom's comments it seemed that trade was agreed to right around the midnight deadline.
The Red Sox either felt comfortable with simply exchanging medicals (which is allowed but less common) or both players had their physicals prior to the deadline. Because JBJ is an ex Red Sox my guess is it's the first one.
Yeah, but there are two sides to it, and Renfroe is not an ex-Brewer and there are two prospects.
anyway not a big deal, seems inconsistent.
The Verlander stuff is odd, but presumably he had a physical prior to the lock out. If he didn't, yeah he'd have to wait for the move to be consummated.
"Gabe Lacques
@GabeLacques
Rob Manfred, on free agency after five years, says the "most negative reaction we have is when a player leaves in free agency."
Left unsaid: The massive spike in energy, ticket sales, etc. when a free agent arrives."
Yeah... that's the only way this goes, not the excitement for a team/fanbase like Texas ADDING a Corey Seager. Boo hoo.
no different, so players should still be able to be traded- *if* the reason they can't be traded is a physical when clearly no physicals happened for the trade consummated late last night.
Quote:
like 20 minutes before the deadline and it was announced even though presumably there was no physical. and obviously they had gone through the whole gomez thing so for trades exchanging medicals is probably sufficient whereas any new contract needs a new physical to be official.
no different, so players should still be able to be traded- *if* the reason they can't be traded is a physical when clearly no physicals happened for the trade consummated late last night.
Jim Bowden was the one who noted the physicals. Teams in theory (I guess) can waive physicals but there won't be trades announced during the lockout. Teams talking? Of course they will. What exactly is the advantage to "making" trades that can't be made official? Another team can still step in and make that move. It's not official until it is.
At this point, it’s unclear why the deal was not officially inked before the CBA expired and there’s no reason to suspect that it’s in any sort of jeopardy. However, it is at least noteworthy that it will apparently remain in a state of limbo as long as the lockout continues."
Again, pretty weird but unless there is a signing bonus, he's not seeing that money until the season opens anyway. No off-season paychecks. + Justin Verlander has savings I'm sure lol. But if it's not official, hypothetically the Astros could back out of the deal.
for trades it's not mandated. they can exchange physicals or presumably in some situations they can do physicals.
but it's also different CBA by CBA because remember Caris Levert got traded and the mandatory physical caught his tumor.
so probably just a quirk of baseball's CBA since they play every day and wanted to be able to fast track stuff if they were willing to. teams can obviously trade for injured players if they want too.
They need to figure out a way to keep stars in their cities and increase competition for the league to ever be viable long term. Right now baseball only exists for half of the teams in the league and that’s a bad place to be.
They need to figure out a way to keep stars in their cities and increase competition for the league to ever be viable long term. Right now baseball only exists for half of the teams in the league and that’s a bad place to be.
@KyleAGlaser
Regarding whether the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft will be made up at a later date: The only status is "it is postponed indefinitely."
I was told pick trading is expected to be part of the new CBA and there isn't much push back against it from either side. There will be stipulations put in place (presumably something similar to the Stepien rule)
ultimately I expect they will give the players a bunch of other stuff they want (drop draft pick comp, increase LTT, universal DH, etc) and the 5 vs. 6 years will be a future fight. Could see a salary floor going either way.
the owners seem ready to give in on raising LTT / eliminating draft comp so those are 2 big issues mostly diffused.
payroll floor and service time to FA are probably the entire negotiation.
I know many probably preferred the GM/PBO search stayed more off the grid and that made a lot of sense given the nature of that search, the fact that targets were under contract, and timing.
this situation is the opposite. most of the candidates are available right now and known. the team is in a positive place in terms of PR/fan excitement for next year. Obviously do it in a way that's respectful of the candidates but no need to be overly cloak and dagger. Especially once they make the managerial hire - would be really cool to get a behind the scenes look of the staff getting assembled and hearing about the new org philosophies/culture they are trying to build.
Done right it could be really good PR to help generate even more interest from current free agents. It was obvious on yesterday's zoom that Marte/Canha/Escobar especially were really excited to be here and be part of a team that's been so active so far. There were FA last year who were openly campaigning to have the chance to player here (walker was 1 of them) so I'd have to think that could be even more the case now after Scherzer.
Bay Area is the Foodie capital (only the food is not that good compared to NY)
Quote:
In comment 15476384 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
but I don't think we are that lucky.
Freeman was in fact in California as of yesterday...
so was Stroman until he hopped a flight to CHI. it seems like 50% of athletes today are in CA during the offseason.
if anyone is gonna steal freeman though I'd bet LAD. I am shocked they didn't retain at least 1 of Scherz/Seager.
Fire season in CA lasts through October usually, so fits perfectly with baseball season.
Like Manhattan, CA is a great place t live if you have tons of money
Link - ( New Window )
1. the #1 thing he wanted a commitment from Cohen on was the ability to build the culture across every level of the FO from the top down "to do things the right way not the easy way". Talked about how important it is to support the people in the organization and help them grow their careers with the resources they need to succeed, etc.
2. sort of goes hand in had with #1, but said Cohen has basically told him that he can have whatever resources he needs for anything as long as he can make the case for how it helps the team win. whether it's FO, staffing, spending on players, etc. Cohen will invest in whatever they can make a case for.
Mets GM Billy Eppler talks Max Scherzer, manager search with Carton and Roberts - ( New Window )
Carton/Roberts asked Eppler whether they still would have pursued Max if Gausman had accepted their offer. Eppler was a little bit evasive but did say it was "not an either/or" situation.
To me, that suggests they will go after another front line pitcher, such as Rodon. Or possibly a free agent hitter and then look to trade for a pitcher.
steamer doesn't project Bryant (114 rc) much beyond McNeil (114) or Escobar (100) and he'd be a lot more expensive. Baez carried enormous defensive value add plus his offense last year as a met was better than those projections, which probably holds more weight to them than any projections.
last year I believe the rumor (martino?) was the mets had a standing offer for him that was basically swapping him for JDD. I'd imagine they could have just as easily targeted him over Baez at the deadline if they wanted also so not sure white whale is exactly right.
@martinonyc
Mets were willing to trade JD David for Bryant in January. No reason to think that would change.
11:10 AM · Jul 29, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
Not sure where JDD value is right now, but I'd add to him too if I had to.
And Shecky's favorite Plawecki.
But I think he will be a solid.850 OPS guy over the next 3-4 years.
I watched him a lot with Giants and what I noticed about his defense is that it got better when he stayed at the same position. So he is not a McNeil where you can move him game to game. But he does give you a guy who can play all the corner positions and handle CF for a month or two if Marte goes down. IMO he is a somewhat better CFer than Nimmo (though Nimmo was definitely getting better)
I think he is a deal at 3/60. When he is hot, righties dont want to pitch to him. But you have to be absolutely sure the DH is coming to NL.
b) lefty
c) walks more
d) ridiculous power
put him behind Alonso in the 5 hole and you still have a place to keep McNeil.
Cano can be a bench bat. Trade Dom or JDD for pitching.
Quote:
Apparently was aggressive on Schwarber before the lockout. He’s apparently asking for 3 for 60. Also Marlins related, Boston thought they had a deal done for Stallings but Miami swooped in. Interesting in light of Vazquez being in Boston
I think he is a deal at 3/60. When he is hot, righties dont want to pitch to him. But you have to be absolutely sure the DH is coming to NL.
they are locked out until the CBA is resolved so they would know for sure either way.
1. the #1 thing he wanted a commitment from Cohen on was the ability to build the culture across every level of the FO from the top down "to do things the right way not the easy way". Talked about how important it is to support the people in the organization and help them grow their careers with the resources they need to succeed, etc.
2. sort of goes hand in had with #1, but said Cohen has basically told him that he can have whatever resources he needs for anything as long as he can make the case for how it helps the team win. whether it's FO, staffing, spending on players, etc. Cohen will invest in whatever they can make a case for. Mets GM Billy Eppler talks Max Scherzer, manager search with Carton and Roberts - ( New Window )
Eppler:
“We can be opportunistic,” Eppler said. “We still have some rom here to do that…that kind of shows that Steve and Alex’s commitment to putting a great team on the field and giving us the resources,..."
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
Eric, thanks for posting a link to that interview. He said what I hoped he would say, that they're opportunistic, and if I'm reading him right, maybe they're still not finished.
i think Dan's speculation is on the money and they are angling for 1 of the 6 SP available from CIN/OAK.
Rodon would be a fun guy to sign but he comes with a lot of risks so the type of SP they need is likely only available on the trade market.
Quote:
is there a chance that bryant/rodon/whoever has a huge year next year and makes it look obvious in hindsight that they should have been aggressive for them now? Sure.
but I think at this point the most sensible path is making lower risk deals - which could still be 1 of those guys if their markets are soft, or it could be someone else. the only item i'd get super aggressive about if it's possible is a true top of rotation arm which is basically just castillo so i dont think that's all that realistic no matter how aggressive they get.
Eric, thanks for posting a link to that interview. He said what I hoped he would say, that they're opportunistic, and if I'm reading him right, maybe they're still not finished.
Thanks again, Eric. Your point is well taken, that anything further may come via a trade; and they have some pieces with which to facilitate that.
fringe benefit is that he's old enough you might be able to attract a really high quality young bench coach on the idea that they could be the manager of the future.
I'm still shocked that Buck is only 65 though. I think it's equal parts that he predated Torre (who's 81) and his seinfeld ep was early enough that the yankees were still kind of a punchline. both seem like ancient history.
The trade destination for A’s first baseman Matt Olson very well could be tied to the outcome of Freddie Freeman’s free agency. Olson is a native of Lilburn, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta. He likely would be the Braves’ No. 1 target if Freeman departs for the Yankees or Dodgers, the teams believed to be most interested in him. The A’s, though, will be in a position of great leverage, drawing interest in Olson not just from clubs that miss out on Freeman, but others as well.
It hardly qualifies as news that the Braves explored first-base alternatives such as Olson and free agent Anthony Rizzo in November while Freeman lingered on the open market; Freeman, at the moment, is not a member of their team. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos needs to do his due diligence, and make sure he can react quickly the moment he senses Freeman might depart.
Olson, who will play next season at 28 and is under club control through 2023, would seem almost an ideal replacement, if necessary. He had more home runs than Freeman (39 to 31) and a higher OPS-plus (153 to 133) last season, and also won Gold Gloves at first in 2018 and ’19. Of course, Olson does not have the same history with the Braves that Freeman does, and would cost the team top prospects, as opposed to just money.
Most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves. Yet, his return no longer can be viewed as inevitable. One rival executive says the fact Freeman remains unsigned is a “slap in the face,” considering that he is a homegrown talent who won the NL MVP in 2020 and helped the team win the World Series in ’21. For Freeman, a native of Orange County, Ca., the Dodgers (or Angels) would appear a more natural fit than the Yankees. But just as the Braves are envisioning how they might replace him, he surely is envisioning what it might be like playing for a team other than the Braves.
At this point, how can he not be?
Freeman is from Socal (just south of LA) so I'd guess the LAD are the bigger threat, especially if they and the Yankees together bid each other up way beyond ATL.
Then if the A's deal Olson to whoever misses out that opens up a destination for Dom Smith. 3 years of him and some $ savings for 1 of their pitchers seems like a good fit and we know the 2 organizations have a lot of familiarity with each other. Eppler was in that division so he's very familiar with them. Sandy was in their organization for a couple years. Similar to Canha it may be that they have a stronger appreciation for one of their guys than others do. I like Dom but he's a replaceable piece. There are a lot of other options to backup 1b and COF, and they can likely sign a stronger LH DH (like Schwarber).
To be clear, this is not the list of people who the Mets have contacted or will definitely interview; it’s the list of people in whom the Mets have some level of preliminary interest:
Houston Astros bench coach Joe Espada
Veteran manager Buck Showalter
Tampa Bay bench coach Matt Quatraro
Pittsburgh bench coach Don Kelly
Former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus...
link - ( New Window )
Maybe Cohen should give me a job lol
100%. There are older coaches/managers in every sport. Trader Jack was like 80 when the Marlins won.
it seems like a strong list of guys they are talking to so doesn't seem like they can go wrong, but I do think Buck seems like the best all around fit. Eppler keeps talking about characteristics the team needs and my list would start with culture, leadership, stability, accountability. Buck stands out in those areas. His experience both in NY and generally being a successful manager in several different places also stands out.
wow very. he's the exact type of guy who would be a perfect bench coach under Buck. I wonder if they know each other from TV?
Well thought of, smart professional guy. Handled the media very well in both NY stops. Definitely makes sense.
2m
I was told Granderson was on the list earlier today, along with David Wright. But I don’t believe either of them are in serious consideration.
Like Eppler said, it’s was initially a “wide list”.
I could see either one as a bench coach. Crazy that the only guy on the current roster either of them probably played with is JDG. Maybe Lugo or Familia (if he ends up back)?
Quote:
a candidate per Robert Murray. Interesting.
wow very. he's the exact type of guy who would be a perfect bench coach under Buck. I wonder if they know each other from TV?
This would be a managerial candidate per Heyman, Murray and Mike Mayer.
@JonHeyman
· 11m
Curtis Granderson is on the Mets list of candidates for manager. The former Mets and Yankees star is now president of the Players Alliance. Was with Yankees when Billy Eppler was GM and Sandy Alderson signed him for the Mets. @ByRobertMurray 1st mentioned
J-Rod
@OfficialJohnRod
·
6m
Very Accurate. I was told days ago about Curtis Granderson being a Top Candidate for the @Mets
Manager Job indeed. Id be surprised if hes not a Finalist for the Managerial Gig. #Mets
Quote:
Michael Mayer @mikemayer22
2m
I was told Granderson was on the list earlier today, along with David Wright. But I don’t believe either of them are in serious consideration.
Like Eppler said, it’s was initially a “wide list”.
I could see either one as a bench coach. Crazy that the only guy on the current roster either of them probably played with is JDG. Maybe Lugo or Familia (if he ends up back)?
Nimmo too
based on nothing but gut I dont think he's a serious candidate for the managing role or even the type to be a manager one day. Granderson seems more like a real managerial prospect for whatever reason.
I wouldn't hate it.
Pat Ragazzo
@ragazzoreport
·
1m
Can also confirm that David Wright is on the Mets’ wide list of managerial candidates but isn’t seen as a serious player for the job
Joe Espada and Buck Showalter are 2 names to watch in this
I have no clue regarding Granderson but Wright has long made clear he likes the idea of being involved but values his family time etc. I'm sure his leaving the organization was completely based on this. Should he ever return I suspect it wiill be again as an advisor and/or ST instructor
Should he ever return I suspect it wiill be again as an advisor and/or ST instructor
ST instructor just seems to fit his personality, sort of like Piazza.
Eppler was in NY obviously for a few years of Torre and then the hiring of Girardi (who had the 1 year managing FLA and won manager of the year).
At LAA he inherited Sciocsa but then made a very Girardi-esque hire with Ausmus.
Then Buck was a runner up to Maddon and some of the rumors were that Eppler preferred Buck.
He's been around all experienced managers and honestly most of them have done a pretty good job (Torre, Girardi, Sciocsa managed the 2 best years in LAA). And Sandy's last first timer hire obviously went real poorly.
So I think any first timer is going to have to really knock their socks off.
@martinonyc
Curtis Granderson’s name came up in an internal Mets discussion about managerial possibilities because he is so highly respected — but he is not expected to interview. Mets feel they need someone in that job with more experience.
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
With this update their org rankings board also updated (linked below) which imo is the most interesting of all the prospect rankings because they value the farm systems based on the overall $ value they attribute to the gradable prospect groups based on their ratings.
They have the Mets org:
15th overall in total value of prospects (209m)
3rd to last in total number of gradeable prospects (29)
2nd best in average value per prospect (7.2m per prospect)
so the top of the system is well above average and bottom well below.
of note the values of the top players are:
$55m - Alvarez (60 grade)
$46m - Baty + Mauricio (55 grade)
$21m - Allan (50 grade)
$6m/4m - Vientos, Ginn, Lee (45 grade)
(ramirez 40+ and plummer 40 would be next but plummer isn't listed in mets system)
some notable 40+ former mets (may be missing a few):
$21m - SWR (50 grade)
$6m - PCA (45 grade)
$3m - Wolf (40+ grade)
$2m - Greene (40 grade)
$2m - Valdez (40 grade)
if you added the former mets to the current mets the system would be top 10 and the count of gradeable prospects would still be a little below average but less so.
Some notable recent graduates Kelenic (60 grade, $55m), Megill (40 grade, $2m), and Gimenez (50 grade, $28m).
Bottomline Tramuta/Tanous have done a really good job identifying quality prospects so with all the draft capital they are set to have next year the system has a chance to get up to the top 10 since it's unlikely any of the top 4 graduate in 2022. Believe I saw recent estimate that had them 3rd in current bonus pool with the chance to end up 2nd if they get the extra pick from Conforto signing elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see if they take a top heavy approach and go for 2 or 3 stars (sort of like the Baty/Wolf/Allan group in 2019) or more of a quantity approach with 6 top 100 picks. Slot value for those 6 will likely average 1.5m per pick, which is close to the bonus amounts they paid SWR + Vientos as 2nd round picks. Preferable to add 6 players projected in the 45-50 grade range or 2 or 3 50+? In a vacuum i think i'd go quality > quantity but if you told me they could add 5+ SWR/Vientos' next year that's pretty appealing.
fangraphs org rankings - ( New Window )
I don't hate any of the names mentioned, but I really like how Beltran thinks the game (other than taking a curve ball for strike three)
I don't hate any of the names mentioned, but I really like how Beltran thinks the game (other than taking a curve ball for strike three)
I hate one of the names mentioned... Larry Bowa? Really? lol
Quote:
Jack Ramsey
@jackwramsey
·
13h
FanGraphs seemingly updated their Top 100 Prospects:
#5 C. Francisco Álvarez
#14 3B Brett Baty
#24 SS Ronny Mauricio
#56 RHP Matt Allan
With this update their org rankings board also updated (linked below) which imo is the most interesting of all the prospect rankings because they value the farm systems based on the overall $ value they attribute to the gradable prospect groups based on their ratings.
They have the Mets org:
15th overall in total value of prospects (209m)
3rd to last in total number of gradeable prospects (29)
2nd best in average value per prospect (7.2m per prospect)
so the top of the system is well above average and bottom well below.
of note the values of the top players are:
$55m - Alvarez (60 grade)
$46m - Baty + Mauricio (55 grade)
$21m - Allan (50 grade)
$6m/4m - Vientos, Ginn, Lee (45 grade)
(ramirez 40+ and plummer 40 would be next but plummer isn't listed in mets system)
some notable 40+ former mets (may be missing a few):
$21m - SWR (50 grade)
$6m - PCA (45 grade)
$3m - Wolf (40+ grade)
$2m - Greene (40 grade)
$2m - Valdez (40 grade)
if you added the former mets to the current mets the system would be top 10 and the count of gradeable prospects would still be a little below average but less so.
Some notable recent graduates Kelenic (60 grade, $55m), Megill (40 grade, $2m), and Gimenez (50 grade, $28m).
Bottomline Tramuta/Tanous have done a really good job identifying quality prospects so with all the draft capital they are set to have next year the system has a chance to get up to the top 10 since it's unlikely any of the top 4 graduate in 2022. Believe I saw recent estimate that had them 3rd in current bonus pool with the chance to end up 2nd if they get the extra pick from Conforto signing elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see if they take a top heavy approach and go for 2 or 3 stars (sort of like the Baty/Wolf/Allan group in 2019) or more of a quantity approach with 6 top 100 picks. Slot value for those 6 will likely average 1.5m per pick, which is close to the bonus amounts they paid SWR + Vientos as 2nd round picks. Preferable to add 6 players projected in the 45-50 grade range or 2 or 3 50+? In a vacuum i think i'd go quality > quantity but if you told me they could add 5+ SWR/Vientos' next year that's pretty appealing. fangraphs org rankings - ( New Window )
My feeling is quality > quantity if there is a significant difference between BPA and BPA that is signable until you have used up your pool. I will always take the option of tanking picks in the 8th through 10th rounds to draft BPA. As you start requiring higher picks to tank, I would need to see a much higher difference between BPA and BPA Signable. That was my concern about drafting Ginn. I thought it required too many picks to be tanked for someone I did not have as much better than signable options. On the other had, Allan was by far BPA. In 2021 Draft, even without knowing about Rocker's medicals, I thought Watson and House were at least on same tier as Rocker and would have gone for either of them rather than opening the bank for Rocker.
The current scouting group has proven they are really strong with that profile. I’m not sure Nimmo or Dom ever graded over 45/50 but they obviously worked out and Kelenic/Baty have. Cecchini was the only bust but I think he was closer to being a big leaguer than most. Just needed a little more d or a little more hit. The bigger miss was his intangibles bc they seemed to bury him quick a few times when they could have given him a longer look if they liked him. So I assume they didn’t like something about him.
Quote:
don't want a first time manager, but I'd pivot back to Beltran.
I don't hate any of the names mentioned, but I really like how Beltran thinks the game (other than taking a curve ball for strike three)
I hate one of the names mentioned... Larry Bowa? Really? lol
I had not heard Bowa mentioned, I would not be a fan of him as manager.
Quote:
In comment 15478919 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
don't want a first time manager, but I'd pivot back to Beltran.
I don't hate any of the names mentioned, but I really like how Beltran thinks the game (other than taking a curve ball for strike three)
I hate one of the names mentioned... Larry Bowa? Really? lol
I had not heard Bowa mentioned, I would not be a fan of him as manager.
Heyman mentioned him as a candidate
So it will be a while, but hard to spin that as anything but a fuck up IMO.
Even if the Mets get a player who turns out better than Rocker in this draft.
So it will be a while, but hard to spin that as anything but a fuck up IMO.
Even if the Mets get a player who turns out better than Rocker in this draft.
They get the exact same pick and slot value so Rocker vs. whoever they pick in 22 is imo no different than any other player x vs. player y draft discussion. 1 will end up better than the other but that's just the nature of drafting, not necessarily a fuck up if Rocker ends up better or brilliant strategy if it's the other guy. the NYM scouts have been strong and in either instance they are going to take whoever they like best and cross fingers.
The fuck up was losing the wasted bonus pool saved on the other guys they signed under slot.
but:
1. picking Rocker because they liked him a lot
2. letting him go because they were worried about his medicals that they didn't have access to prior to selection
are both acceptable decisions.
They gave JT Ginn $3m even though he needed TJS so presumably there was something significant to pass on Rocker without negotiating when they clearly liked him a lot prior to the medicals.
If he doesn't and his injury proves to be what the Mets thought then the Mets were right, which is why I said the analysis of the Rocker pick is TBD.
However I thought in the latest CBA (2016) they allowed for pre-draft medicals.
If he doesn't and his injury proves to be what the Mets thought then the Mets were right, which is why I said the analysis of the Rocker pick is TBD.
However I thought in the latest CBA (2016) they allowed for pre-draft medicals.
Pre-draft medicals are optional. If you submit to MLB's centralized doctors a team has to offer I believe 40% of slot in order to receive a compensatory pick if eligible. If they don't submit, a team can offer no signing bonus and receive a compensatory pick if eligible.
hopefully something they fix in the new cba because it's just a bad situation for both parties. Rocker has to wait a full year before getting a SB and is probably going to fall no matter what.
when the Mets were on the clock they obviously loved Rocker so they picked him.
im sure everyone involved preferred to not have their doctors find something once they got to the physical.
once they did though they didn't even make him an offer. the doctors may be right or wrong but that doesn't seem like what would happen if they didn't see a lot of risk. especially considering they'd already said they weren't planning on having him throw any more innings last summer.
There's good and bad with the MLB's new voluntary MRI program for draft prospects - ( New Window )
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
· 10m
Mets executives won’t say that they had a clubhouse character problem last season. But they do admit they want to improve in that area next season.
Story: https://nwsdy.li/3lvscLR
Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
·
1m
I don’t believe it is a coincidence that the Mets haven’t brought back a single one of their pending free agents as of yet. And they may not at all.
Your memory isn’t what you think it is.
I’ve never once questioned the HSS drs ability to read an MRI (I was 1 of the only ones who said there was zero chance they were lying about JDGs elbow being structurally sound).
The Mets decisions on player performance (rehab assignments, workload management, etc) are a totally different thing, and where they’ve most struggled. The HSS isn’t why Carrasco didn’t do any rehab starts in the minors before debuting.
Quote:
all of a sudden you trust the Mets doctors got something right?
Your memory isn’t what you think it is.
I’ve never once questioned the HSS drs ability to read an MRI (I was 1 of the only ones who said there was zero chance they were lying about JDGs elbow being structurally sound).
The Mets decisions on player performance (rehab assignments, workload management, etc) are a totally different thing, and where they’ve most struggled. The HSS isn’t why Carrasco didn’t do any rehab starts in the minors before debuting.
You're the one who said regardless of what the medicals came back as you would rest players longer what the Mets did or leaked they planned to, you question the medical approach for players like Syndergaard and Carrasco (the two most recent who come to mind) constantly even to suggest it led to their re-injury/delayed return.
Yet, you're convinced these same doctors got Rocker right?
Separate from the HSS the Mets employee their own team of physicians, trainers, PTs, performance team, sports science, etc who run the training programs, manage the rehabs/pt, and generally do probably 99.9% of the actual interacting with the players. Most if not all of those people aren't board certified doctors. Revamping that department is actually something BVW stated as one of his goals (like building the analytics team) though also like analytics it's unclear how much he was able to change beyond making quotes to the press because most of the people from the wilponzi era he inherited remained.
You can read the article below that quoted former head trainer Ray Ramirez (who they fired in 2018 and is not an MD) from this past June re: the scope of that group's daily involvement which he summed up with this quote.
and to put it plainly that right there is where the Mets have had issues going back decades going back to when they tried to make Reyes change how he runs. they haven't had problems with incorrect surgical diagnosis or botched procedures because that was outsourced and would have led to massive malpractice suits.
This is also an area where I think we can have hope Cohen's $ can make a big difference going forward. It didn't last year because we generally saw more of the same in the results because they had 3 key rehabs suffer major setbacks (2 that were non-surgical) but the size of the department has grown so presumably it's on the list of things they've been trying to upgrade.
Former Mets trainer Ray Ramirez reacts to fan criticism over injuries - ( New Window )
You seem to think team trainers I guess have sole discretion on a players rehab and treatment plan, not the doctor(s) who operated on them (Syndergaard) or treated them (Carrasco).
Who did the Mets have examine Rocker?
Here is Boras' statement and it will be pretty telling since Rocker allegedly has underwent no medical treatment, no surgeries, and no other specific procedure.
a physical gets done by a doctor. MRIs get reviewed by doctors. the mets head trainer (brian chicklo) is not a licensed dr and neither is his boss who leads their performance team, so im pretty sure they are not the ones who veto'd signing Rocker (which the mets had no incentive to void unless there was a good reason).
since words aren't getting through let's try pictures.
I think this group with the letters "dr" in front of their names - almost all of whom are hss including altchek and the other 2 orthos - has track records we can trust on the medical decisions that require certified doctors involvement.
On performance issues separate from acute injuries handled by the drs I think this group on the other hand has a very spotty track record - some over long tenures in the organization.
https://www.mlb.com/mets/team/front-office - ( New Window )
Yes, Boras quote cites unnamed doctors.
Which doctor did the Mets cite with their medicals?
Again, you railed on here about Syndergaard's forced return from TJS impacting his eventual return last year.
Who do you think (or more accurately, who do you have knowledge about) determining Syndergaard's recovery process and when he was cleared to return?
Was it someone with an MD in front of their name or do you suggest the Mets left that trivial decision to a trainer or some coordinator or therapist?
you are not discussing things in good faith, you are trying to loosely fit an agenda, and that doesn't interest me.
I'm out. Have a great day.
Also not quite sure how youre in any way proving me wrong about something when I said Thor coming back ahead of the original schedule was a bad idea when it then went…badly.
My question was, isn't it very possibly the same doctors who came up with Syndergaard's rehab plan and return to throwing (that you did not trust) that examined Rocker (who you do trust).
or you just blame trainers when it suits you because you think a physical therapist or a trainer or coordinator would be left to make such important decisions as to a player returning from TJS.
And your quote about trainers trying to get players back on the field as soon as possible...isn't that their job?
Strange point to make and strange discussion, seems like any time I post something you launch into a diatribe about why you disagree.
I just don't have the time, energy, or desire to respond today. especially when I do not believe you are discussing it in good faith (for whatever reason) and no idea why you would mock that, but whatever.
nothing personal.
My question was, isn't it very possibly the same doctors who came up with Syndergaard's rehab plan and return to throwing (that you did not trust) that examined Rocker (who you do trust).
or you just blame trainers when it suits you because you think a physical therapist or a trainer or coordinator would be left to make such important decisions as to a player returning from TJS.
And your quote about trainers trying to get players back on the field as soon as possible...isn't that their job?
Strange point to make and strange discussion, seems like any time I post something you launch into a diatribe about why you disagree.
I just don't have the time, energy, or desire to respond today. especially when I do not believe you are discussing it in good faith (for whatever reason) and no idea why you would mock that, but whatever.
nothing personal.
K