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NFT: Mets have offered Scherzer $40 mil+

CMicks3110 : 11/28/2021 8:34 pm
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
18m
Sources: Mets have offered Scherzer more than $40 million per year. Length unknown. Doesn’t mean he’ll sign there; that’s still unclear.
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RE: PJ the steamer projection is only over 90 games (as i mentioned above)  
pjcas18 : 12/1/2021 11:35 am : link
In comment 15475662 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15475603 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


is almost as much an outlier as 2021 when you include stats like ISO, wOBA and wRC.

and steamer projections, which people hold dear until they don't indicate McNeil as a 1.5 fWAR player.

that's basically replaceable.

If people are scared of McNeil turning into Murphy when he leaves I get it, but reality is pitching is more important to the 2022 Mets than McNeil. If he could get Mahle, Castillo or Gray I'd trade him in a heartbeat. But like I said I wouldn't give him away (or Dom or JDD for that matter).





Their 114 RC projection is perfectly fine though so if you want a fair approximation of his steamer value next year it's easy enough to project him to a full season of at bats. Their at bat projection is likely low because of depth chart uncertainty. Just adjusting for 550 at bats brings his steamer projection to 2.5 fwar which is above average.

Also their projected D value on him is bizarrely negative even though he had a +4 DRS and was 89th percentile in OAA at 2b - both in line with his career averages. So unless you think he's about to go over a defensive cliff or unless you are penalizing him for his bad metrics on other positions last year, his steamer projection adjusted to a full season at 2b is probably 3+ fwar.

And re: Murphy, there's zero worry he will turn into Murphy. His first 2.5 years were as good as Murphy's 2.5 years with the Nats which were the best of his career - so he has already been the good version of Murphy, except with positive value defense instead of negative.

Dan Murphy as a Nat (1380 PA) - .329 / .380 / .550
Jeff McNeil '18-'20 (1024 PA) - .319 / .383 / .501


k
RE: yeah, O'Day was DFAed  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 11:36 am : link
In comment 15475668 KDavies said:
Quote:
for Nelson Figueroa


Darren O'Day... 13 seasons into his big league career (3.46 FIP), Deolis Guerra and Yusmiero Petit are still big leaguers as well.
RE: .  
KDavies : 12/1/2021 11:40 am : link
In comment 15475646 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Rob Piersall
@RTPiersall
·
6m
The Mets have made a pair of minor signings:

The team inked southpaw Rob Zastryzny and catcher Nick Dini to minor league contracts.

Zastryzny last pitched for the Chicago Cubs in 2018 and has a career 4.41 ERA in 18 games.

Dini appeared in 20 games for the Royals in 2019.


Not expecting anything from the lefty, but Dini could be interesting. I could at least see him challenging Mazeika for backup C to be called up should McCann or Nido get injured.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 11:43 am : link
hope Senger isn't taken Rule 5. I like him more than Mazeika.
RE: Two problems I saw with McNeil last year  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 11:45 am : link
In comment 15475654 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.

Why?

I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.

Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)

So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).


I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.

McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.

Sometimes guys just have bad years.

buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.
RE: RE: Two problems I saw with McNeil last year  
Vanzetti : 12/1/2021 11:58 am : link
In comment 15475689 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15475654 Vanzetti said:


Quote:


There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.

Why?

I think the opposition has field charts on him now and the OF positioning is better.

Also, there was a lot more soft contact than we saw from McNeil in the past. A lot more golf swings. Now McNeil was a champion golfer so maybe he has a tendency to fall into that. He definitely can put the bat on balls the other way that almost anyone else would miss (e.g. Conforto)

So his weakness (soft contact) is growing from his strength (making contact on pitches most other batters would swing and miss).



I think 1 bad year is 1 bad year. There was clearly dysfunction with the team's hitting philosophy evident in the firing of their hitting coach and his comments last month that he had disagreements with the analytics coming from Zack Scott. Both are gone now and that's why the new manager hire is so key, and why I think McNeil should be 1 of the first priorities.

McNeil had elite bat control for 3 years. Last year he was still 94th percentile for K rate and 87th for whiff rate. So he still had elite bat control. He actually increased his exit velo > 2020. The outcomes were different on the balls in play and if anyone knew the exact reason why that was the case Steve Cohen would likely pay them a lot to be the next hitting coach. Or Scott Boras would pay that person a lot to work with all his clients.

Sometimes guys just have bad years.

buy low sell high is such a universally accepted smart principle and from my pov buying low on Jeff McNeil is something the Mets should be doing and not letting another team do.


Yeah, there is definitely that x factor that nobody can explain when it comes to why guys have an off year out of the blue.

I think with McNeil the worry is that this is not an "off year" but that the league has figured him out. I don't really buy that for many of the reasons you mentioned (continuing low k and whiff rates).

However, he does need to adjust his approach and be more selective, especially with that low, outside pitch.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 11:58 am : link
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:

Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11

Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20

Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24
Wouldn't mind seeing Freeman  
pjcas18 : 12/1/2021 11:59 am : link
exit the NL East.

Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
· 1h
Freddie Freeman is the superstar free agent to watch today. While many have expected him to return to Atlanta, the Yankees and Dodgers are among the teams with interest, as @JonHeyman has noted. Freeman also could fit the Red Sox. @MLB @MLBNetwork
Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:03 pm : link
In comment 15475654 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.


to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.

the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.

His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?



RE: .  
Vanzetti : 12/1/2021 12:04 pm : link
In comment 15475711 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:

Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11

Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20

Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24


Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.
here's 2020 for ref but harder to see a trend with so many fewer plots  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:10 pm : link
whiff% & krate still elite.
chase rate, exit velocity, barrel%, hh rate still not.

it does look a lot more like 2019 with the number of doubles down the RF line vs. LF.



RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:11 pm : link
In comment 15475725 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 15475711 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:

Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11

Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20

Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24



Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.


Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.
RE: Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation  
Vanzetti : 12/1/2021 12:11 pm : link
In comment 15475720 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15475654 Vanzetti said:


Quote:


There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.



to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.

the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.

His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?






2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.

The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.
RE: RE: Vanzetti looking at the spray charts this is a really good observation  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:18 pm : link
In comment 15475735 Vanzetti said:
Quote:

2021 looks a lot more up the middle portion of the field. 2019 is just sideline to sideline with a lot more balls pulled for power.

The fact that the charts look so different also suggests either an injury that we don't know about that affected his swing. Or the hitting coaches trying to change his approach.


the fact that the underlying contact metrics are so similar suggests more of an approach issue. his exit velocities went up even without pulling the ball more so not saying an injury is impossible but would have been a weird injury where he could generate more power but in a different direction.

and again when taken with the fact that multiple hitters regressed just like he did and a new analytics team was implemented, a fresh start with a new hitting coach seems like the elephant in the room.
Is there any scuttlebutt that the draft pick  
bhill410 : 12/1/2021 12:19 pm : link
Forfeiture for QO free agents goes away?
RE: Is there any scuttlebutt that the draft pick  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15475748 bhill410 said:
Quote:
Forfeiture for QO free agents goes away?


Any changes to pick forfeiture would go into effect for the following off-season per Keith Law.
RE: RE: Is there any scuttlebutt that the draft pick  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15475753 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15475748 bhill410 said:


Quote:


Forfeiture for QO free agents goes away?



Any changes to pick forfeiture would go into effect for the following off-season per Keith Law.


He wasn't implying there would be changes, the question was posed IF there were.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Vanzetti : 12/1/2021 12:25 pm : link
In comment 15475733 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15475725 Vanzetti said:


Quote:


In comment 15475711 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Jayson Stark
@jaysonst
·
1h
Free agents from the @JimBowdenGM
top 25 who remain unsigned on Lockout Eve:

Correa #2
Freeman #3
Story #6
Bryant #7
Stroman #11

Castellanos #13
Suzuki #14
Jansen #15
Rodon #16
Kershaw #17
Rizzo #20

Conforto #21
Taylor #22
Schwarber #24



Wow. 14 out of the 25 still unsigned. It would be great if Mets could pick up Hollywood or Castellanos on a one year.



Castellanos would cost the Mets the #14 pick and 4 million in draft pool room. 1 year deals for players who received the QO are especially unappealing for the Mets.


Forgot that Castellanos got the QO. Wonder what is going to happen with Conforto? Will he get a multi-year contract?
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:26 pm : link
actually with Eric, I'd prefer to keep McNeil. That being said, if there is any "positive" to the lockout, the Mets can reassess and figure out if dealing McNeil to sign a guy like Bryant makes sense or not. The impression is (as I noted above) FA is already all but paused.
RE: Is there any scuttlebutt that the draft pick  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:27 pm : link
In comment 15475748 bhill410 said:
Quote:
Forfeiture for QO free agents goes away?


haven't heard much about it but it came up in 2020 so assume it would come up again?

this is 100% guess but most of the horse trading is likely to be in that area. I'd guess the easy gives from owners to players are a salary floor, higher lux tax threshold, looser restrictions on fa mobility (like the pick forfeiture), and the DH. All of those things promote more spending to the players. Probably also some token gives to the conditions for minor leaguers.

I don't know what the owners are going to want from the players from their end, but maybe it's just a matter of those are the hostages they are willing to give up to maintain the status quo of the overall system?

with the way the last week went i find it hard to believe there's enough motivation on the players side to try to blow up the 6 years of team control until FA, and i expect that to be the place where the owners draw the line in the sand.
It  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:33 pm : link
should be noted, issues that have been discussed for YEARS now never actually end up being frontburner issues aka International draft, treatment/pay for minor leaguers because the MLBPA by and large doesn't care about anybody but themselves. I'm completely pro-player in these discussions but it sucks how little they care about where they came from.
RE: I'm  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:34 pm : link
In comment 15475763 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
actually with Eric, I'd prefer to keep McNeil. That being said, if there is any "positive" to the lockout, the Mets can reassess and figure out if dealing McNeil to sign a guy like Bryant makes sense or not. The impression is (as I noted above) FA is already all but paused.


yeah if mcneil can bring back something you can't get any other way (like Castillo) you consider it but I'd deal Mauricio before I deal McNeil and a high upside 20 year old prospect is typically going to be more what a selling team is looking for than a 29 year old.

I wouldn't deal either for anything other than a true TOR arm.
RE: It  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 12:36 pm : link
In comment 15475774 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
should be noted, issues that have been discussed for YEARS now never actually end up being frontburner issues aka International draft, treatment/pay for minor leaguers because the MLBPA by and large doesn't care about anybody but themselves. I'm completely pro-player in these discussions but it sucks how little they care about where they came from.


agree here as well - most likely there will be some token gives but it seems like the status quo is going to remain.
Not  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:36 pm : link
nitpicking, more astonished how time flies, McNeil will be 30 years old in early April. I know he was a late bloomer but still!
Dan interesting you pro player  
bhill410 : 12/1/2021 12:49 pm : link
The MLB union to me is one of the most unsympathetic entities around (far more than any other players union). It’s tough to be completely sympathetic to owners obviously but the players union has significantly hamstrung the development of the game with what appears to be an insane level of rigidity.
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:53 pm : link
just find it to be unbelievable how poorly minor leaguers are treated, how long players have to wait to make even a "fair" salary. There are numerous stories of players sleeping on floors because they can't afford hotel rooms. At the big league level if you don't make it at least until your arbitration years, you really don't make much money at all and if you're a college player and take say 4 years to make the majors, you're low 30's by the time you're a FA aka "past your prime". The labor stuff is a pretty "boring" topic but the first overall pick in the NBA draft was guaranteed something like 45 million, the first overall pick in the MLB draft (Henry Davis)... 6.5
RE: Dan interesting you pro player  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 12:54 pm : link
In comment 15475802 bhill410 said:
Quote:
The MLB union to me is one of the most unsympathetic entities around (far more than any other players union). It’s tough to be completely sympathetic to owners obviously but the players union has significantly hamstrung the development of the game with what appears to be an insane level of rigidity.


To be clear, I think Tony Clark is a jackass. I'm not "pro-MLBPA", I'm pro the talent themselves.
Zoom  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:03 pm : link
call has begun, Skinny Steve introducing Scherzer
I would love to see the breakdown  
bhill410 : 12/1/2021 1:05 pm : link
Of the current system verse something like the rest of the leagues where it’s based on revenue sharing.

MLBPA is staunchly against any type of cap, but it would not shock me if they are getting a smaller percentage of revenue as a result. Furthermore that setup would 1) alleviate a lot of the current issues around arbitration, 2) create parity if there is a floor requirement, and 3) stop the constant bickering over changes like expansion of playoffs since the MLBPA would be incentivized
Scherzer-  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:07 pm : link
sitting with Boras. The "why he came here" question is necessary I guess but nobody will ever say it's the money lol
His  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:08 pm : link
wife and kids will remain in Florida
Scherzer  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:11 pm : link
hasn't picked his number
Scherzer  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:12 pm : link
has already spoken with deGrom.
Scherzer  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:13 pm : link
said both the Nationals and he agreed he wouldn't be traded to an NL East team at the deadline.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:16 pm : link
Christopher Soto
@SotoC803
·
17s
That sure sounded like the #Mets are out on making anymore "big" moves for position players.

Focus is on another Starting Pitcher and Relievers.
Scherzer is an interesting cat  
jpkmets : 12/1/2021 1:41 pm : link
Really thoughtful answer on the NLDS game 5 impact vs 2019.
So  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:43 pm : link
much for Showalter/Ausmus being the clear frontrunners. Neither would need permission to interview


Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
12s
Mets general manager Billy Eppler says the team has formed a "pretty wide" list of managerial candidates. The club is still deciding which to call/ask permission to interview.

Sounds like the process will pick up later this week, with formal interviews happening "very soon."
I agree there are a lot of problems with treatment of minor leaguers  
KDavies : 12/1/2021 1:46 pm : link
the lack of providing housing, the income is way too low, etc. But you can't compare it to the NBA or NFL draft. Baseball players usually take years to make an impact after being drafted. It's not the case in the other sports.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:47 pm : link
Britt Ghiroli
@Britt_Ghiroli
·
6m
Scherzer said the Dodgers limiting his pitch count and trying to keep him fresh for the postseason lowered his work capacity and he thinks led to his dead arm. Said in DC he was relied on and pushed to consistently go 110 pitches every five days so more built up for ‘19 WS run
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 1:55 pm : link
Mike Petriello
@mike_petriello
·
1m
Not really buying Scherzer's argument that not letting him go deeper in reg season hurt him later.

He made 11 starts for LA. 9 times: 92+ pitches. Other two? Big rain delay; injured hammy.

I am *definitely* buying that Scherzer wants SP in general to be allowed to go deeper.
Would Mauricio be enough for Castillo?  
Metnut : 12/1/2021 2:04 pm : link
I’m guessing not. How much would we have to add?
RE: Would Mauricio be enough for Castillo?  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 2:11 pm : link
In comment 15475915 Metnut said:
Quote:
I’m guessing not. How much would we have to add?


Headlining a deal? Maybe, one for one? No. Castillo is 9th in baseball by fWAR since opening day 2020. Mauricio is a good, but not "elite" prospect with a high variance. 2 seasons of Castillo is a worth a ton
Interview with Scherzer.  
Dennis : 12/1/2021 2:43 pm : link
I'm sorry if this has already been posted.

I'm very impressed with Scherzer's emotional maturity; his care for, and about his family, his desire to succeed, his thoughtfulness. He deems like more than just a "jock".

He apparently really wants to play with DeGrom. I think that both of them share a level of professionalism and commitment to their profession that is noteworthy in this day when so many athletes (I think) are spoiled, narcissistic, grown up children.
Link - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 2:45 pm : link
M@
@MattSpiegel670
·
7m
Have heard now from 2 different sources that the Cubs and Marcus Stroman are hot and heavy in discussion right now. Would absolutely love that signing.
"Ranking the 10 biggest Mets free agent signings of all time"  
Dennis : 12/1/2021 2:48 pm : link
We were discussing this yesterday. I thought I would post their take on it:

"...what they’ve never witnessed is a free agent they signed help lead them to a world championship. Perhaps Max Scherzer will be the first."

Dennis
Link - ( New Window )
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 3:10 pm : link
It hasn't been confirmed @mets want a manager with experience but if they do, it does narrow down the potential names they would need to ask for permission to speak to. Showalter, Bochy, Shildt, Ausmus, Scioscia are all "free".

Ron Washington? Fredi Gonzalez? Jay Bell?
Negotiations  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 3:17 pm : link
have ended for the day.
Phillies  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 3:21 pm : link
sign Corey Knebel. Nice pickup
interesting that the not going to NY thing came from the Nats  
Eric on Li : 12/1/2021 3:25 pm : link
that makes sense and kind of funny how the geography rumor snowballed given that his family being on the east coast ended up working in the mets favor.

Only about halfway through but Scherzer sounds extremely thoughtful and the exact right kind of guy this clubhouse needed (talent aside). Also great to hear that Escobar has such a strong reputation.

Thought Eppler's intro was really great talking about the value of all the ingredients that Scherzer has behind the scenes that lead to his success.

huge day in the history of this franchise. next year could be a bust like any year. but unlike any year they now have a path to seriously competing for a world series.
Loved  
DanMetroMan : 12/1/2021 3:28 pm : link
what I heard from Scherzer, though I do think he was part of the decision to go to the Dodgers vs. the NL East. Chelsea Janes covered the Nationals 2014-2018 and was close (and very high) on Scherzer as a person but she flat out said speaking to him that he thought his aches and pains (non-arm) would be better suited somewhere that wasn't cold (headed into FA).
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