Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
18m
Sources: Mets have offered Scherzer more than $40 million per year. Length unknown. Doesn’t mean he’ll sign there; that’s still unclear.
not the Mets, I like him as a buy low but not on a 3 year gamble. Pass
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Yusei Kikuchi has 3-year offers. Mets, Jays are interested though their specific offers are unknown. Kikuchi was thought to have gambled by opting out of $13M for 1 year after a year in which he was an All-Star in the first half before struggling late.
I'm not anti-Kikuchi overall but 3 years is too steep. As noted yesterday, interesting @mets are interested given his era vs. Eppler's angels was near 11 (not exaggerating) #Mets
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets, Angels and Padres are among many teams to have shown interest in star free agent Kris Bryant, whose marketing is now percolating, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Astros among others who have checked in.
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
RE: RE: Can somebody make me a believer in Kikuchi?
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Ok good. Thought I was losing it. lol
Im a believer that the backend is actually pretty well hedged with Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and eventually Lucchesi. You can even hopefully throw Hill into that mix as depth too assuming we can re-sign him. Those arent great options but as fill-ins or 5th SP types I think they'll do. Where I feel we are not hedged is the TOR. deGrom is a ?, Sherzer's age is up there, and we have no idea what Carrasco will do. Adding a high end option like Rodon (risks and all) just makes a lot more sense for me.
likely going to be strictly out of the pen if he makes it back. 12 months would be June. Average TJ now for starters is closer to 16, RP 12-14. Can't really see him being able to come back,head to the minors, throw 4-5 innings rehabbing and be ready.
Despite his solid start to the season and top-notch velocity from the left side, Kikuchi isn’t quite the appealing upside play you might imagine. His Statcast numbers show that when batters hit the ball against Kikuchi this year, they absolutely hammered it. The 91.9 mile per hour average exit velocity against him was the worst in baseball, and 47% of the balls hit against him were 95 and up (second worst in the game). As such, the fact that Kikuchi allowed more than a fifth of his flyballs to leave the yard can’t be waved away as a fluke.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
I like all 3 of the A's SP AND all 3 of the Reds SP. Rather not lock themselves into Kikuchi for 3 years when there will be other options.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
1m
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
yea sounds like our 6 man dream isn't gonna fly with mad max.
all the more reason to get as good of a pitcher as they can without giving up too much in trade cost. i'm with you on 1 of the oak/cincy 6, though my preference would be for whoever we can get without giving up McNeil or Mauricio. Dom if we must but try to get a 2nd depth pitcher back. Someone else's Megill or Trevor Williams (with an option).
and Montas would cost the most of the 6 because they have the most years remaining. I'd assume Gray would be next given his track record, and followed by Maneaea and then Bassitt but really just confident that Castillo/Montas would cost the most.
the guys with 1 year left should definitely be the cheapest
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6s
Dodgers’ deal with Chris Taylor, per major-league source: Four years, $60M with fifth-year option that can increase the total value to $73M.
Deesha
@DeeshaThosar
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
Confirmed with the team. Mets have to jump through some licensing hoops/red tape before they can make it official. These are the unofficial, official jersey numbers.
id contribute to a gofundme if it helps get freeman out of the NL east
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Right-hander Nick Martinez and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $20 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Martinez, 31, starred for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan this year (1.62 ERA) and gets opt-outs after first and second year.
Typical Chain Bloom/Rays type move. JBJ only makes $2 million more than Renfroe this year. ($8 million buyout, $12 million next year for Bradley, and arbitration for Renfroe)
From what I've read about Renfroe, he was not good defensively, with the exception of throwing out runners. Although he had 31 HRs in a career year last year, he had a .315 OBP. Had a 2.3 WAR. Bradley was atrocious last year, but every year before that had a WAR of at least 2 with the Red Sox for the past 6 years.
A lot of fans upset about trading a 31 HR guy for a .160 hitter. But realistically, if last year was an aberration for JBJ, you are trading similarly valued players (though their skills are very different).
From the Sox perspective, they are getting possibly similarly valued players, but one that may fit them better. JBJ can mentor Duran in playing CF defense at Fenway. They have Duran, JBJ, Verdugo, and Kike to patrol the OF, and they get two good looking prospects out of the deal: a speedy IF and a strong hitting corner IF
adds defense and JBJ now in a walk year in a ballpark he's hit in before, and added some prospects to do it. Binelas looks like a real prospect too. 3rd round college 3b picked last year who mashed a .636 slg% in his brief debut (that was about his career slg% at Louisville too).
are ok taking that out of the CBA so going forward that probably won't be an issue.
was thinking a good replacement system for that would be making it more like the NFL comp pick structure where the sandwich picks get awarded but nobody loses their natural picks.
I think it would also be cool if they changed the rules on who qualifies for comp picks.
Ex. they should incentivize low budget teams to sign affordable but non minimum veterans to 1 year deals because those are the fringe guys who inevitably get squeezed the most and lose jobs because of the non-competitive teams at the bottom of the league who are just looking to maximize earnings/draft capital.
if you got a comp pick for any non-minimum FA you lose who gets a multi-year deal elsewhere that would incentivize the low budget teams of the world to try to sign those less in demand vets in hopes that they put up bounce back seasons and move on the following year to bring them back a comp pick. the bigger the deal the higher the comp pick.
that aligns getting more draft capital with signing more/better low to mid level FA. the top of the market FA are obviously doing fine bc the big market teams are spending.
2023 is a mutual option at $12 million for JBJ. $8 million buyout.
he was terrible last year but in his last 6 straight years in bos he was worth at least 1.5 fwar and averaged more like 2.5 (he went over 2 in 4 of his last 5).
the only reason he'd do the buy out next year is if he has a monster year and thinks he can get a much bigger deal so they are pretty well hedged no matter which way he performs - unless he completely tanks like last year.
if he plays both years he gets about $21m, and likely produces at least 3 or 4 fwar which would make it a slight surplus value.
if he opts out the buyout would bring his total to $17m for 1 year but he likely only does that if he has a big year, which would be more than 2 fwar so again they'd have surplus value.
the tanking scenario is possible but he has so much of his value in defense he starts with 1 leg up.
adding Correa and shifting Boegarts to 3b/Devers to 1b would take that team to another level. they are close to their payroll from last year so presumably they'd only do that if the LTT goes up.
I'm not complaining, as the Mets benefit. But look at the Mets season so far. They gain Scherzer, Escobar, Canha, Marte.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
yup, in a way it even penalizes them too because they'd probably end up with lesser picks than the 2 they are getting for Thor/Conforto since those deals are going to be a lot less than what they spent on scherzer. Depending on how they do it.
but net-net would still be a good trade off for big market teams because on the positive side they could have been more active on Robbie Ray and all the others who got QO's.
it would add in a whole new avenue though for the Reds/Marlins of the world to add draft capital though. Make smart 1 year signings of quality players who can go on to multi-year deals and you get more draft picks. And those teams become more competitive in the process. Win-win for the game.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Yusei Kikuchi has 3-year offers. Mets, Jays are interested though their specific offers are unknown. Kikuchi was thought to have gambled by opting out of $13M for 1 year after a year in which he was an All-Star in the first half before struggling late.
@JonHeyman
·
1m
Mets, Angels and Padres are among many teams to have shown interest in star free agent Kris Bryant, whose marketing is now percolating, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Astros among others who have checked in.
Chavez was also with Alderson in Oakland IIRC
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Quote:
What's the draw? Backend lefty? Bleh
yeah. 3 year deal is asinine. His "all star" first half came with a 4.36 FIP. Fangraphs projected 1 year 8, I'm in for that. 3 years? Silly. 3 years? Gamble on Rodon at that point. Or go with a 1 year option.
Ok good. Thought I was losing it. lol
Im a believer that the backend is actually pretty well hedged with Williams, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and eventually Lucchesi. You can even hopefully throw Hill into that mix as depth too assuming we can re-sign him. Those arent great options but as fill-ins or 5th SP types I think they'll do. Where I feel we are not hedged is the TOR. deGrom is a ?, Sherzer's age is up there, and we have no idea what Carrasco will do. Adding a high end option like Rodon (risks and all) just makes a lot more sense for me.
1 year "project" I'm in. 3 years is silly
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
in the realm of what seems reasonable I'd still prefer either of the A's guys (slight preference to Manaea but very happy with either) but those seem like deals that will happen later. Who knows maybe they are in a rush to clear some room now before the Reds take out some of their buyers?
It would also be great to get an optionable starter as a throw in if they do a trade. Megill and Peterson at AAA is great but since they can't option Williams anymore best case scenario for him is probably long guy out of the pen.
I like all 3 of the A's SP AND all 3 of the Reds SP. Rather not lock themselves into Kikuchi for 3 years when there will be other options.
1m
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
yea sounds like our 6 man dream isn't gonna fly with mad max.
all the more reason to get as good of a pitcher as they can without giving up too much in trade cost. i'm with you on 1 of the oak/cincy 6, though my preference would be for whoever we can get without giving up McNeil or Mauricio. Dom if we must but try to get a 2nd depth pitcher back. Someone else's Megill or Trevor Williams (with an option).
then the only question is how much more $ is it worth to just sign Rodon.
between Eppler playing the A's a ton and Sandy having worked there I'd guess if they like one of their guys that's what they will do.
I keep hearing Taylor Rogers is a target of Eppler via Heffner's request (Twins connection).
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6s
Dodgers’ deal with Chris Taylor, per major-league source: Four years, $60M with fifth-year option that can increase the total value to $73M.
Jack Ramsey @jackwramsey
2m
Jersey numbers, per MLB.com;
McNeil: 1
Marte: 6
Escobar: 10
Canha: 19
Scherzer: 21
poor kike. imagine what he'd have gotten paid this year.
Brandon Warne
@Brandon_Warne
·
2h
You guys in the media corps are going to *ADORE* Escobar.
the story is nuts it was ankle surgery. he almost retired.
and it was at the beginning of covid and he's been on 4 teams since. talk about performing under non-ideal conditions.
Link - ( New Window )
Deesha
@DeeshaThosar
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
Confirmed with the team. Mets have to jump through some licensing hoops/red tape before they can make it official. These are the unofficial, official jersey numbers.
Freeman was in fact in California as of yesterday...
Quote:
but I don't think we are that lucky.
Freeman was in fact in California as of yesterday...
so was Stroman until he hopped a flight to CHI. it seems like 50% of athletes today are in CA during the offseason.
if anyone is gonna steal freeman though I'd bet LAD. I am shocked they didn't retain at least 1 of Scherz/Seager.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
59s
Right-hander Nick Martinez and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $20 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Martinez, 31, starred for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan this year (1.62 ERA) and gets opt-outs after first and second year.
Link - ( New Window )
it cost the Brewers two prospects in addition.
it cost the Brewers two prospects in addition.
Typical Chain Bloom/Rays type move. JBJ only makes $2 million more than Renfroe this year. ($8 million buyout, $12 million next year for Bradley, and arbitration for Renfroe)
From what I've read about Renfroe, he was not good defensively, with the exception of throwing out runners. Although he had 31 HRs in a career year last year, he had a .315 OBP. Had a 2.3 WAR. Bradley was atrocious last year, but every year before that had a WAR of at least 2 with the Red Sox for the past 6 years.
A lot of fans upset about trading a 31 HR guy for a .160 hitter. But realistically, if last year was an aberration for JBJ, you are trading similarly valued players (though their skills are very different).
From the Sox perspective, they are getting possibly similarly valued players, but one that may fit them better. JBJ can mentor Duran in playing CF defense at Fenway. They have Duran, JBJ, Verdugo, and Kike to patrol the OF, and they get two good looking prospects out of the deal: a speedy IF and a strong hitting corner IF
was thinking a good replacement system for that would be making it more like the NFL comp pick structure where the sandwich picks get awarded but nobody loses their natural picks.
I think it would also be cool if they changed the rules on who qualifies for comp picks.
Ex. they should incentivize low budget teams to sign affordable but non minimum veterans to 1 year deals because those are the fringe guys who inevitably get squeezed the most and lose jobs because of the non-competitive teams at the bottom of the league who are just looking to maximize earnings/draft capital.
if you got a comp pick for any non-minimum FA you lose who gets a multi-year deal elsewhere that would incentivize the low budget teams of the world to try to sign those less in demand vets in hopes that they put up bounce back seasons and move on the following year to bring them back a comp pick. the bigger the deal the higher the comp pick.
that aligns getting more draft capital with signing more/better low to mid level FA. the top of the market FA are obviously doing fine bc the big market teams are spending.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
he was terrible last year but in his last 6 straight years in bos he was worth at least 1.5 fwar and averaged more like 2.5 (he went over 2 in 4 of his last 5).
the only reason he'd do the buy out next year is if he has a monster year and thinks he can get a much bigger deal so they are pretty well hedged no matter which way he performs - unless he completely tanks like last year.
if he plays both years he gets about $21m, and likely produces at least 3 or 4 fwar which would make it a slight surplus value.
if he opts out the buyout would bring his total to $17m for 1 year but he likely only does that if he has a big year, which would be more than 2 fwar so again they'd have surplus value.
the tanking scenario is possible but he has so much of his value in defense he starts with 1 leg up.
adding Correa and shifting Boegarts to 3b/Devers to 1b would take that team to another level. they are close to their payroll from last year so presumably they'd only do that if the LTT goes up.
Assuming Conforto is gone, they lose Conforto, Thor, Stroman, Loup.
They pick up two comp picks.
yup, in a way it even penalizes them too because they'd probably end up with lesser picks than the 2 they are getting for Thor/Conforto since those deals are going to be a lot less than what they spent on scherzer. Depending on how they do it.
but net-net would still be a good trade off for big market teams because on the positive side they could have been more active on Robbie Ray and all the others who got QO's.
it would add in a whole new avenue though for the Reds/Marlins of the world to add draft capital though. Make smart 1 year signings of quality players who can go on to multi-year deals and you get more draft picks. And those teams become more competitive in the process. Win-win for the game.