Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
18m
Sources: Mets have offered Scherzer more than $40 million per year. Length unknown. Doesn’t mean he’ll sign there; that’s still unclear.
Sanchez would be a bizarre fit, I think Puma is talking out of his ass.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I think it's gonna be Showalter but outside shot for Ausmus too. Eppler had a front row seat with Ausmus so it would be an informed hire. The rumors were he didn't want to fire Ausmus but then preferred Showalter to Maddon. Either seems like a competent selection.
in the fold, does it change anyone's interest in Robbie Ray?
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
not for me. way outpitched his peripherals and still 1 year from a 6 era and -fwar.
if he wasn't on a QO maybe, but at the expense of 3-4m in draft pool? Nope. That 3m is basically another Matt Allan - which is a more desperate need for the organization than the difference between Ray and Rodon.
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
but is reported to be non-tendered by the Tigers is Matthew Boyd. He is injured and out through June. If I'm the Mets I certainly acquire about him. Price could be right and could do a similar deal to Walker, at maybe 2 years, $16 million. He could eat some innings at the back of the rotation and provide depth, or be the 6th man if they do a 6 man rotation.
DMM and Eric, but I'm just thinking about going all in.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I guess the difference is, I don't see Ray as a major upgrade over some of the available names. If you told me Rodon outpitches Ray in 2022 I wouldn't be shocked. Alex Cobb 2.92 FIP in 2021 over 18 starts or even trade options. If Ray were a sure thing then I'd agree but 3.69 FIP and awful as recently as 2020, I don't think that's worth the risk.
I would like to see the Mets keep the 2 1st round picks
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Should the Mets keep their two 1sts, it will be interesting where they go there. I like the approach lately the Mets have had with largely position players in the 1st and SP with other high picks. Easier to project on the whole, with less injury issues. Supplement SP with FAs.
That's how the Astros and Cubs were largely built. There are exceptions, of course. ie, an established big game college SP in Rocker, until that blew up
with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
awful 2020 (and let's face it quite a few players had awful 2020's), was more the blip in his career than his CY Young in 2021 IMO.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
PJ,
I have to disagree there. Robbie Ray 2018 0.9 fWAR 4.31 FIP, 2019 4.29 FIP. Career 4.04 FIP. From 2018-2019 he was "solid but average" and 2020 he was awful. 2018+2019 only 3 SP that threw at least 200 innings walked more batters. Steven Brault, Aaron Sanchez and Liriano. His 2018+2019 combined FIP was 4.30. He carries significant risk. I also have to wonder why Toronto hasn't been more aggressive in trying to keep a guy they "fixed".
KDavies I agree and in particular I think Kelenic/Baty types are ideal
because they both went under slot. PCA went for exactly slot. I wouldn't fix what isn't broken and with the 2 firsts I think I'd try to go in that direction with position players, ideally under slot.
Save that money to then go above slot on 2 or 3 Matt Allan/JT Ginn types with the 2nd round and comp picks.
they can go underslot with 1 or 2 of those also and try to get 1 of the top senior signs.
issue in the Mets system is clearly pitching. Can't even really count Matt Allan. He may see some innings at the end of this year but TJ perfect. Ginn is a #4 type, Butto a back end type, I like Hamel quite a bit but I'm guessing the Mets have the "worst" SP prospects in baseball overall and that needs to be addressed.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
That would be crazy if he signed with Texas with everyone else they are going after.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
way too early to really judge but early guesstimates have this being a completely loaded draft. I'm partial to OF Chase DeLauter, an absolute specimen who can really hit. 6'5 245 currently a CF. He also pitches (won't be at the next level), plus speed. A real monster. I'm not worrying about "need" at the moment.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Yup and quite frankly unless I'm missing someone, they haven't even been rumored "in" on any QO guys.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Correct. So far they've done the hole filling part of the offseason as well as could be expected. Got best SP and best CF availability as well as 2 other position flexible value deals. All on reasonably termed deals.
Now it's time to value hunt and find some diamonds in the rough. The lockout break is coming at exactly the right time to get go heavy on staffing/scouting.
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
Exactly. the last 4 first rounds were Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA. Signing Ray is giving up $3-4m and a prospect along those lines.
If we didn't like losing PCA at the deadline that's exactly what you stand to lose by signing Ray instead of Rodon. And unlike the deadline there is a simple and equally effective alternative. there were no comparable free agents to baez at the deadline. there are comparable free agents who don't cost the QO.
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
in fairness, that was an especially moronic trade (even at the time it was viewed as such). A decent GM likely turns the Kelenic package into a trade for a star/superstar.
add in Harvey, Nimmo, Dom, Conforto. Going beyond the micro-analysis of any singular player, on a macro level, the Mets need an infusion of talent in the minor league system. At this point FAs are fine. But unless you want to be facing luxury tax penalties every year, they need to get some cost-controlled talent.
Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, hopefully Allen down the line, Ginn and some of the SP they draft last year are a decent start, but this draft could be huge in setting themselves up for some cost controlled talent in the next 3 years or so. Plummer is a top 10 prospect in the system.
it seems a lot of you fans prefer to draft the player then trade them for a proven veteran (even as a rental) than to sign a player that prevents you from drafting a player in the first place.
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Peterson is 26 and steamer projects him to have the almost the same ERA/FIP as Ray next year, obviously at a fraction of the cost.
Kelenic is 22 and was a top 10 prospect in baseball. Giving him up was moronic even though it brought back "an all star" and has no relation to the value of him as a draft pick. In a bad debut he still had 24 xbh in the 2nd half last year.
Baty is a consensus top 50.
PCA was a fringe top 100 but who knows because he has barely debuted and had a major injury. He still had enough value to bring back a player likely to sign for more than Ray will in at the deadline.
Giving up first round picks when there's an alternative not to is a bizarre strategy, especially after bemoaning giving up PCA for the last several months.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
I think it's gonna be Showalter but outside shot for Ausmus too. Eppler had a front row seat with Ausmus so it would be an informed hire. The rumors were he didn't want to fire Ausmus but then preferred Showalter to Maddon. Either seems like a competent selection.
I think he is a good risk with Scherzer aboard
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
He was on my avoid list for a couple reasons but now I might be willing to change my mind for a lefty who can miss bats.
not for me. way outpitched his peripherals and still 1 year from a 6 era and -fwar.
if he wasn't on a QO maybe, but at the expense of 3-4m in draft pool? Nope. That 3m is basically another Matt Allan - which is a more desperate need for the organization than the difference between Ray and Rodon.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
Ray 3.76 FIP
Rodon 3.37
Kikuchi 4.08
Boyd (who won't be ready until mid-season) 4.31
Cobb 3.92
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I guess the difference is, I don't see Ray as a major upgrade over some of the available names. If you told me Rodon outpitches Ray in 2022 I wouldn't be shocked. Alex Cobb 2.92 FIP in 2021 over 18 starts or even trade options. If Ray were a sure thing then I'd agree but 3.69 FIP and awful as recently as 2020, I don't think that's worth the risk.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Losing the draft pick would obviously hurt, but the player the Mets get with that pick is 3 - 5 years away from helping.
Neither Scherzer or deGrom for that matter are likely Mets when that player debuts (if they even make it that far).
Anyway, just looking at all options.
I get that, to me the better all in options are Rodon or Baez. Just better bang for buck and no compensation given up.
Sonny Gray 4.00
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
sure but look at his 2021 fip, hard hit rates, barrel%, exit velocity. none trend towards his era outperforming his career average by more than 1 run.
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with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
Should the Mets keep their two 1sts, it will be interesting where they go there. I like the approach lately the Mets have had with largely position players in the 1st and SP with other high picks. Easier to project on the whole, with less injury issues. Supplement SP with FAs.
That's how the Astros and Cubs were largely built. There are exceptions, of course. ie, an established big game college SP in Rocker, until that blew up
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with Eric. #14 overall pick about 4 million in pool money and the risk of him reverting. Not worth it to me. The Mets badly need to use the "mistake" of Rocker and the extra picks to hit a home run in this draft. Give them trade capital and ability to sign big money players because they have cheap talent in the organization.
the good news is with the system right now is on the position player side they may not need to go big game hunting for a while.
Lindor is locked in at SS.
Marte gives them a CF bridge to find a future player there. who knows maybe Plummer/Lee develop and push him to LF.
3b should be 1 of Baty/Vientos (or Mauricio).
McCann/Nido should be enough until Alvarez ready.
Alonso's bat is obviously a key building block.
So between the corners they signed this offseason, mcneil, dom, jdd, they have a nice setup on the every day side.
the pitching is what needs to be massively addressed. After Allan and Ginn it's pretty empty.
+1. I'm thinking the same thing, Eric.
I don't think the Mets sign him, I read the Angels are a leading contender, but my mind is open now to losing a draft pick for the right player.
PJ,
I have to disagree there. Robbie Ray 2018 0.9 fWAR 4.31 FIP, 2019 4.29 FIP. Career 4.04 FIP. From 2018-2019 he was "solid but average" and 2020 he was awful. 2018+2019 only 3 SP that threw at least 200 innings walked more batters. Steven Brault, Aaron Sanchez and Liriano. His 2018+2019 combined FIP was 4.30. He carries significant risk. I also have to wonder why Toronto hasn't been more aggressive in trying to keep a guy they "fixed".
Save that money to then go above slot on 2 or 3 Matt Allan/JT Ginn types with the 2nd round and comp picks.
they can go underslot with 1 or 2 of those also and try to get 1 of the top senior signs.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
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love to see them sign Rodon, sign an additional SP and "load manage" a 6 man rotation.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't know if an extra day really helps avoid injury. I think skipping starts is a better way to go.
In other words, a six-man rotation in which a different starter gets a rest each time through the rotation--especially in the second half.
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Kershaw is obviously a longshot but so was Scherzer. Offer him a two-year deal. Health pending of course.
Alex Wood. As had some rough years but if you are looking for a guy who is relatively cheap and who could pitch far above his career average a la Wade Miley last year, Wood could be your guy.
Johnnie Cueto is another good risk imo on a one-year deal. But he is RH.
Reportedly Kershaw only wants to remain a Dodger or sign with Texas (he's from Dallas). Yeah, money talks but this isn't Scherzer who will now be on his 5th team and got a ridiculous offer.
That would be crazy if he signed with Texas with everyone else they are going after.
@JeffPassan
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and the Seattle Mariners are finalizing a five-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the third season, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
Good. Don't want to give up the pick.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
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For Robbie Ray.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Yup and quite frankly unless I'm missing someone, they haven't even been rumored "in" on any QO guys.
Quote:
For Robbie Ray.
Dan would know the buzz around where the talent is in next years draft and obviously a ton will change there but if all things are equal I go to college arm and then top available prep arm at 11 and 14. If you suspect one may fall you have an incredible amount of flexibility to go over slot between the 4 high picks. If the draft class is at all decent they are in a very good spot to raise the pitching depth (and hopefully out field depth) in the farm over night.
Only players I would give the pick up for would be Seager, and maybe Correa. But both are SS and that ain't happening with Lindor, so it's a non-issue. Mets have pretty much said they weren't if I recall correctly
Correct. So far they've done the hole filling part of the offseason as well as could be expected. Got best SP and best CF availability as well as 2 other position flexible value deals. All on reasonably termed deals.
Now it's time to value hunt and find some diamonds in the rough. The lockout break is coming at exactly the right time to get go heavy on staffing/scouting.
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
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In comment 15472763 DanMetroMan said:
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love to see them sign Rodon, sign an additional SP and "load manage" a 6 man rotation.
+1, me too re 6 man rotation, especially considering Scherzer's age, and DeGrom's arm problems this year.
I don't know if an extra day really helps avoid injury. I think skipping starts is a better way to go.
In other words, a six-man rotation in which a different starter gets a rest each time through the rotation--especially in the second half.
Thanks, Vanzetti. I would not have known that.
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but I'd rather win at the major league level (if they can't do both).
Some times it makes sense to give up the pick.
If my choice was Robbie Ray (or whoever - it does not need to be Ray) or Gavin Cecchini I'd toss the pick and go with Ray (obviously with the benefit of hind sight in this case).
Anyway, point is even though I am sometimes a prospect hugger myself, draft picks in general are riskier than free agent signings and draft picks are years away from helping at the major league level. if they even make it.
The issue is two-fold: 1. The Mets would lose the #14 pick this year in a strong draft. Not a 2nd rounder. Going forward, I could really give two craps about losing a 2nd rounder for a quality FA.
2. There are comparable players as to those available. ie. go Rodon rather than Ray.
Yeah, if hindsight would show there's a Cecchini that is drafted at the pick, then yeah. But reality is, the Mets have done quite well in the 1st for the bulk of the past decade.
Exactly. the last 4 first rounds were Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA. Signing Ray is giving up $3-4m and a prospect along those lines.
If we didn't like losing PCA at the deadline that's exactly what you stand to lose by signing Ray instead of Rodon. And unlike the deadline there is a simple and equally effective alternative. there were no comparable free agents to baez at the deadline. there are comparable free agents who don't cost the QO.
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, hopefully Allen down the line, Ginn and some of the SP they draft last year are a decent start, but this draft could be huge in setting themselves up for some cost controlled talent in the next 3 years or so. Plummer is a top 10 prospect in the system.
I wonder who the manager will be, most seem to think Showalter is the favorite.
thats alll puma does
I'm the opposite, once we draft the player (if they do anything well) I don't want to trade them at all, I want to see them grow and get promoted up the majors and have a lengthy career.
My views also change when I sense the team is "in striking distance" of being a contender. When the team is on the verge of contending my focus shifts to finishing the job, something the Wilpons were never willing to do (financially).
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Peterson, Kelenic, Baty, PCA
the damning thing for keeping draft picks is only Baty remains with any value.
Kelenic was traded for a shitty reliever and a bad contract and PCA was traded for a rental.
I think the team would be better off with a #3 starter (with upside) for the next 4 years than Diaz/Cano or 2 months of Baez. Not even second guessing, felt that way at the time.
And certainly better off than Peterson.
I don't think you proved what you thought you proved with that post.
Peterson is 26 and steamer projects him to have the almost the same ERA/FIP as Ray next year, obviously at a fraction of the cost.
Kelenic is 22 and was a top 10 prospect in baseball. Giving him up was moronic even though it brought back "an all star" and has no relation to the value of him as a draft pick. In a bad debut he still had 24 xbh in the 2nd half last year.
Baty is a consensus top 50.
PCA was a fringe top 100 but who knows because he has barely debuted and had a major injury. He still had enough value to bring back a player likely to sign for more than Ray will in at the deadline.
Giving up first round picks when there's an alternative not to is a bizarre strategy, especially after bemoaning giving up PCA for the last several months.