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Is the OL excuse a myth?

Gatorade Dunk : 11/29/2021 11:19 am
I put this together for a reply in the Terps callout thread, but realize that many people may be avoiding what they assume is just a callout thread.

In any case, as we've gone through the litany of explanations for DJ's inconsistent and/or middling performances, it seems that the only one that really remains active is that DJ is hampered by what many fans want to describe as the worst OL in football.

There are a number of metrics that can be used to track OL play, particularly as it relates to the passing game. Here are a few that I'm looking at:

1) Sacks per game (since we're still in the middle of bye weeks, not every team has played the same amount of games, so per game average is more fair)

2) Sack percentage (this does not need to be altered since it is already adjusted for pass attempts)

3) Pressures per game

4) Pressure percentage

5) Hurries per game

6) Hits per game

7) Average pocket time


----------------------

SACKS PER GAME
1. Vikings (1.36)
2. Buccaneers (1.36)
3. Rams (1.55)
.
.
.
16. Giants (2.09)
.
.
.
30. Ravens (3.27)
31. Seahawks (3.30)
32. Bears (3.36)


SACK PERCENTAGE
1. Buccaneers (3.1%)
2. Vikings (3.5%)
3. Bills (3.9%)
.
.
.
14. Giants (5.6%)
.
.
.
30. Browns (8.6%)
31. Seahawks (10.3%)
32. Bears (10.7%)


PRESSURES PER GAME
1. Rams (4.8)
2. Buccaneers (5.1)
3. Patriots (6.3)
.
.
.
19. Giants (8.8)
.
.
.
30. Vikings (10.3)
31. Jets (10.4)
32. Broncos (10.5)


PRESSURE PERCENTAGE
1. Buccaneers (11.5%)
2. Rams (12.3%)
3. Steelers (16.4%)
.
.
.
16. Giants (22.1%)
.
.
.
30. Panthers (26.2%)
31. Seahawks (27.2%)
32. Broncos (28.4%)


HURRIES PER GAME
1. Patriots (1.25)
2. Rams (1.27)
3. Titans (1.33)
.
.
.
16. Giants (3.45)
.
.
.
30. Broncos (4.54)
31. Bills (4.73)
32. Vikings (4.91)


HITS PER GAME
1. Browns (1.42)
2. Cardinals (1.45)
3. Buccaneers (1.73)
.
.
.
21. Giants (3.27)
.
.
.
30. Vikings (4.00)
31. Colts (4.58)
32. Falcons (5.09)


AVERAGE POCKET TIME (in seconds)
1. Washington (2.5)
2. Eagles (2.4)
3. Seahawks (2.4)
.
.
.
13. Giants (2.2)
.
.
.
30. Texans (2.0)
31. Packers (2.0)
32. Steelers (1.9)

--------------------


If the Giants have the worst OL in football, and if DJ is being so hampered by their poor play, shouldn't the Giants be the worst in the league in at least one of these categories?

The numbers say that they're middle of the pack across the board when it comes to pass protection.

all stats drawn from pro-football-reference.

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RE:  
Johnny5 : 11/30/2021 12:59 pm : link
In comment 15474270 Producer said:
Quote:


Let us know when you are sitting as a paid employee on the staff of an NFL team. Maybe then the absolutes and condescending language you use to rehash this OPINION over and over and over and over again will be more readily accepted.



So now I have to be a paid employee of an NFL team to state an opinion on a message board? I think you have forgotten this is a fan forum. I'm sure you are a nice guy irl but on here you act like a fucking douchebag. I give you observations about the team and the players, and you attack me, literally unprovoked. Hey Johnny, sometimes you are going to encounter people who don't agree with you and have different opinions than you. And I can tell you as a professional writer and producer there is literally nothing *condescending* in that reply. You are just being a sensitive prick.

And my opinion is as good as anybody's on here. I have overseen large teams and operations in an entertainment field. I have made consequential personnel decisions. I have been a sports fan for 5 decades. I have forgotten more sports than you have probably consumed. And believe it or not I am open to honest debate and disagreement, and open to changing my mind. But - "you're condescending" and other personal attacks just indicate you have no counter.

Reread my post. I have absolutely zero problems with people having opinions. And there are plenty of times myself and many, many others have posted rebuttals to your "opinion" over. And over. And over. And over. That said, I get tend to get triggered by the way you post in absolutes and in a condescending way like people are fools if they disagree with you. I also get triggered by the way you literally post it on EVERY. SINGLE. THREAD. even if the OP has nothing to do with the QB. You are condescending and frankly a bit rude, and you responded here in kind.... lol. So I guess, that is why I post like a "Dooshbag" to you. And by the way, I highly doubt you have forgotten more sports than I have consumed. And also that said, I would guess if we were sitting down over a beer debating it, we would probably get along just fine... lol.
RE: RE:  
Producer : 11/30/2021 1:06 pm : link
In comment 15474300 Johnny5 said:
Quote:
In comment 15474270 Producer said:


Quote:




Let us know when you are sitting as a paid employee on the staff of an NFL team. Maybe then the absolutes and condescending language you use to rehash this OPINION over and over and over and over again will be more readily accepted.



So now I have to be a paid employee of an NFL team to state an opinion on a message board? I think you have forgotten this is a fan forum. I'm sure you are a nice guy irl but on here you act like a fucking douchebag. I give you observations about the team and the players, and you attack me, literally unprovoked. Hey Johnny, sometimes you are going to encounter people who don't agree with you and have different opinions than you. And I can tell you as a professional writer and producer there is literally nothing *condescending* in that reply. You are just being a sensitive prick.

And my opinion is as good as anybody's on here. I have overseen large teams and operations in an entertainment field. I have made consequential personnel decisions. I have been a sports fan for 5 decades. I have forgotten more sports than you have probably consumed. And believe it or not I am open to honest debate and disagreement, and open to changing my mind. But - "you're condescending" and other personal attacks just indicate you have no counter.


Reread my post. I have absolutely zero problems with people having opinions. And there are plenty of times myself and many, many others have posted rebuttals to your "opinion" over. And over. And over. And over. That said, I get tend to get triggered by the way you post in absolutes and in a condescending way like people are fools if they disagree with you. I also get triggered by the way you literally post it on EVERY. SINGLE. THREAD. even if the OP has nothing to do with the QB. You are condescending and frankly a bit rude, and you responded here in kind.... lol. So I guess, that is why I post like a "Dooshbag" to you. And by the way, I highly doubt you have forgotten more sports than I have consumed. And also that said, I would guess if we were sitting down over a beer debating it, we would probably get along just fine... lol.


Yes I think we would. Maybe my style is arrogant. It is challenging to convey tone in an email, in a text and in a message board post. I actually never contend that Jones "can never" be great. But at this stage I feel it is a low probability event that a big organization like the Giants can't bank on. I'm all about playing smart probabilities. And I am ok with keeping Jones next season, but we should bring in competition. That's where I'm at with him.

As to his talent.. the numbers and eye test agree he isn't good. So I asked chrstian, what is he referring to. I'd like to know.

I want the Giants to be smart and build a dynasty. I want us to have the best QB in the league. Or at least top-8. We should be searching until we accomplish that.
christian  
The Jake : 11/30/2021 1:12 pm : link
Well done on this thread, sir.
Producer  
Johnny5 : 11/30/2021 1:20 pm : link
I agree with that post 1000%. I can see that I trigger some people with the way I post as well for sure... when I get annoyed I post in a dooshy manner lol. I guess I technically mean to be belligerent about it in written word but for the most part face to face it is just back and forth banter (I have as many friends and relatives that believe QB to be the bigger problem for the Giants vs. those that don't - so it's not like it's a new conversation... lol). It becomes more confrontational for sure due to written word vs face to face. No hard feelings on my end. And to clarify I am not 100% sold on Jones, but I feel like the bigger issues go way beyond the QB. I do feel 100% this team would be in a completely different place right now with better OL play and a better pass rush.
RE: RE: RE: Christian...  
NoGainDayne : 11/30/2021 3:56 pm : link
In comment 15473942 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
In comment 15473874 christian said:


Quote:
In football, I start with my eyes. I have been fortunate enough to coach with the OL group this past season. This doesn't make me any kind of expert, but it does allow me to spend time breaking down sideline vs endzone views of every snap with other OL coaches.

DJ has the ability to make off schedule plays. He has arm talent and can run. He is fearless...likely to a fault.
But because he does not have time to process, or lacks the ability to do it before his back foot hits the ground, he probably has no future with the Giants.


See I think you say you start with your eyes but you don't realize how tainted your own sample is with a desire for DJ to be good and seeing it through that lens.

A few things jump out at me that I really disagree with in this longer post. The first is you say fearless like it's a good thing and also a fact? When I look at Jones I often see a jittery indecisive player that at times is so rushed he makes horrible throws and decisions. People that are "fearless" you don't see do that. I never once saw Brett Farve get jittery and rush a throw. I saw him be overconfident and try to squeeze balls in tight windows or sail throws but never once did I see him look nervous. He could take a pounding a whole game and still not be jittery. Frankly for all Jones' "smarts" it doesn't show up in his game. How many times does it look like Jones has made a good hot read? Has anyone ever seen him adjust a play at the line that had a good result? When I think of a smart QB I think of a guy that is looking off a safety to throw it somewhere else. I think of a QB that audibles to a run play or points out a blitzer for his line. No doubt his situation is non ideal but for all the propaganda from Jints central on Jones brains and hard work, it doesn't show up on the field. When he does make elite plays it seems to be with his legs on designed runs. Not improvising really. And to boot he is definitely a great athlete but how much more elusive is Big Ben in the pocket than DJ? Same goes for Rodgers. What good is all that athleticism when you often get sacked acting like you never saw the guy that was about to hit you? Also I don't care how much you make an elite play every once in a while if you often miss easy ones and make some of the most boneheaded plays I've ever seen. Turn the ball over more than any other QB. It's like complicating a basketball player for hitting fadeaway 3's while they routinely miss layups. That's actually how you end up on the bench, not the most important player on the field.

And honestly that's where I'm going to have a rare disagreement with Christian as well. I wouldn't call DJ talented at all. I'd call him a great athlete. Talent at the QB position to me is much more about leadership, decision making, actually preparedness that shows up on the field not lots of talk of how hard a worker you are. You could name lots of different attributes of QBs that display talent on the field. What they all have in common is poise and a plan to do well, a plan of attack. And DJ has never shown that ability. And I think that is a big difference. Other positions athletic ability and talent are much more closely aligned. But you can't be a talented player without the ability to achieve consistently IMO.
It feels like you didn’t read what I said…  
Brown_Hornet : 11/30/2021 8:44 pm : link
… i’m not even sure I completely understand what you mean by, “ how tainted your own sample is with a desire for DJ to be good and seeing it through that lens.”

The majority of everything I have said on this thread has had to do with the OL.
What I have said about DJ is that while I think he has tools he has had trouble processing. I also believe that if he’s here in 2022, that it’s likely his last season with NY.

Without going through the entire post I will finish with the way you ended, “ But you can't be a talented player without the ability to achieve consistently IMO.”
I appreciate that you recognize this as an opinion albeit, an inaccurate one. A player can be all kinds of talented and still be inconsistent.

I think that maybe what you meant to say was, in order to be considered a truly good player, he need to be consistent… and with that I agree.
RE: RE: Did I miss it?  
JOrthman : 11/30/2021 9:41 pm : link
In comment 15473943 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15473930 JOrthman said:


Quote:


I don't know how you can talk about Oline play and not discuss run blocking. Currently we are 26th in total yards, 27th in YPC and a 3 way tie for 29th in rushing TD's.


Because the context arose from a conversation centered on Jones, and how he was being forced to operate behind the worst OL in the NFL (some went so far as to call it "historically bad."

And I don't dispute that the run blocking is bad, and that it does create many unfavorable situations for the offense (DJ included), the point of the thread was to illustrate specifically that the Giants' OL is nowhere near the worst in the league when it comes to pass pro.


Right but they feed into each other. I mean you can't start a thread about Oline play and not mention run blocking, roughly 50% of their job. If you want to use it as a critique of Jones and say they are decent at pass blocking that's one thing. However, even with that I'd say they feed into each other. If your run game sucks, that means they game plan for our offense differently. For example, if we had a great run game, they stack the box, which would leave the passing game more open. Since our run game sucks we are one dimensional.
 
christian : 11/30/2021 10:03 pm : link
What these numbers avail are some counterintuitive data.

The Giants opponents are blitzing a lot and the Giants aren’t giving up the consistent pressure and hits you’d think would go hand-in-hand with the offensive futility we’re seeing.

So what else is possibly going on? I think it’s possible:

- The Giants give up a few dramatic breakdowns per game where the quarterback and running back get cut down unblocked, which warps the perception of frequency

- The Giants get Jones out of the pocket by design, mitigating pressure, but this might not be a high success position for him

- The Giants are keeping a tight end to block, taking a tight end out of the pass options

- Jones misses a pretty good share of opportunities with adequate protection

That’s where I’d look.
The Giants don’t have enough bigger impact plays because of  
Jimmy Googs : 11/30/2021 10:13 pm : link
the conservative calls and lack of actual playmakers. They basically need 3 non-negative downs in a row to make the 10 yards.

So when the OL breaks down with a penalty, unforced error and there is one negative yardage play on a drive, it’s almost always a punt, or settling for a FG if in red zone.

RE: Producer  
Producer : 11/30/2021 10:57 pm : link
In comment 15474333 Johnny5 said:
Quote:
I agree with that post 1000%. I can see that I trigger some people with the way I post as well for sure... when I get annoyed I post in a dooshy manner lol. I guess I technically mean to be belligerent about it in written word but for the most part face to face it is just back and forth banter (I have as many friends and relatives that believe QB to be the bigger problem for the Giants vs. those that don't - so it's not like it's a new conversation... lol). It becomes more confrontational for sure due to written word vs face to face. No hard feelings on my end. And to clarify I am not 100% sold on Jones, but I feel like the bigger issues go way beyond the QB. I do feel 100% this team would be in a completely different place right now with better OL play and a better pass rush.


No hard feelings whatsoever..
RE: It feels like you didn’t read what I said…  
NoGainDayne : 12/1/2021 12:26 am : link
In comment 15475120 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
… i’m not even sure I completely understand what you mean by, “ how tainted your own sample is with a desire for DJ to be good and seeing it through that lens.”

The majority of everything I have said on this thread has had to do with the OL.
What I have said about DJ is that while I think he has tools he has had trouble processing. I also believe that if he’s here in 2022, that it’s likely his last season with NY.

Without going through the entire post I will finish with the way you ended, “ But you can't be a talented player without the ability to achieve consistently IMO.”
I appreciate that you recognize this as an opinion albeit, an inaccurate one. A player can be all kinds of talented and still be inconsistent.

I think that maybe what you meant to say was, in order to be considered a truly good player, he need to be consistent… and with that I agree.


I think you really want DJ to be good so your brain contorts the rest of that story to preserve that narrative. I don't think you are the only one that does this by any means.

Also I was trying to make a point about talent that football isn't just about slinging a ball around, especially as a QB. Trying to make the distinction that I feel a player is more talented if they can elude a bunch of rushers vs. see an opening and take it 70 yards. The plays he does well on seem to be more well called than anything dynamic or special he's doing other than displaying his athleticism. And even if he had the best arm in the world which he doesn't, I would say there is a different between like "arm talent" so to speak and like on the field football talent. Perhaps what I'm saying more specifically is all the arm talent in the world doesn't really matter if you don't have talent between the ears. So any talent we are talking about in terms of his legs or arms or whatever is kind of rendered useless by his mental shortcomings on the field and with his awareness. You mentioned improvising as well and that is very confusing to me because I feel like especially relative to his athletic talents he's one of the worst improvisors I've ever seen
I don't believe that I'm doing...  
Brown_Hornet : 12/1/2021 8:51 am : link
...any brain contortions. But, I'm fine with you believing that I am~

I also believe that he will eventually show that he is better than his current stat-line says he is...albeit, with another team.

If he's the QB in 2022, I'll root for him. If not, I'll wish him well.

We have seen, as I try and recall a few rebuilds, teams have great success getting the rest of the team in order prior to selecting their franchise QB...
...IMV, the Giants have failed at self evaluation and intentionally or not, built the team the opposite way.

The team has more to do than making a decision on any one piece...even if it is the most important piece.
 
christian : 12/1/2021 9:31 am : link
I think the Giants need markedly better quarterback play and there is room in the league for Daniel Jones.

Jones remind a lot of Alex Smith. Over drafted, and not the type of talent you’d expect at the top of the first round. But in a very QB friendly system, with more talent, he’s a guy who can stick around in the league.

I don’t think the timeframes align for the Giants. I don’t see a Reid, Kingsbury, etc. anytime soon running the offense. And the Giants in all likelihood will replace four starters on the offensive line.

I think it would be criminal to execute his 5th year option and guarantee him 20M+ in 2023.

Unless there is a trade available, there’s no financial upside to cutting him, so I’d sign a more competitive backup and monitor the pre-draft progress of the QBs. That process is so much more informative in my view than the season.

I don’t think the Giants have a particularly tragic offensive line — I think they have two backups playing (Price and Skura) because of injuries and two starters who don’t belong in the NFL (Solder and Hernandez).

Under those circumstances I’m actually surprised who functional the line has been.
Will Hernandez most certainly belongs in the NFL  
NYGgolfer : 12/1/2021 9:39 am : link
He will not ever be a plus Guard but has enough game to be a starter on many teams.

Plenty of blame to go around with Offensive Line issues, but shouldn't understate how little our coaching staff develops guys at that position.
RE: …  
Brown_Hornet : 12/1/2021 9:40 am : link
In comment 15475459 christian said:
Quote:
Agree with all but...
..."I don’t think the Giants have a particularly tragic offensive line — I think they have two backups playing (Price and Skura) because of injuries and two starters who don’t belong in the NFL (Solder and Hernandez)."

And, we agree on the Right Side. My issue is, C & LG. Gates may be done and we still know little about Lemieux.
To me, having confidence in only 1/5 of the OL is tragic.
 
christian : 12/1/2021 10:01 am : link
Medium-term I think the Giants (again) face long odds in building a good offensive line.

Gates is the one scouting feather in Gettleman’s cap, and I think he’s got a long road back. That’s a bad break. Lemieux doesn’t strike me as an above average multi-year starter.

I agree the Giants have 1 position locked down, and 4 current starters who are not under contract next year.

That said, the current rag tag group (that will not return likely) is treading more water than some fans are able to admit.

Brass tax I look at this way: the Giants either need much better QB play or much better line play. What’s the best odds move to get that?
RE: …  
Brown_Hornet : 12/1/2021 10:11 am : link
In comment 15475493 christian said:
Quote:
Medium-term I think the Giants (again) face long odds in building a good offensive line.

Gates is the one scouting feather in Gettleman’s cap, and I think he’s got a long road back. That’s a bad break. Lemieux doesn’t strike me as an above average multi-year starter.

I agree the Giants have 1 position locked down, and 4 current starters who are not under contract next year.

That said, the current rag tag group (that will not return likely) is treading more water than some fans are able to admit.

Brass tax I look at this way: the Giants either need much better QB play or much better line play. What’s the best odds move to get that?
+1
Hopefully the new management group knows the answer to your question!
I agree that he certainly CAN succeed  
NoGainDayne : 12/1/2021 10:14 am : link
I just think the turnovers thing is just such a major problem. He seems like someone you'd have to call the exact right play for and walk through the progressions. I don't know though, it's puzzling to me that his decision making is so poor consistently and he's so jittery.

I mean look at someone like David Carr who was certainly like that in the NFL and had a terrible supporting cast. In college he was fantastic. Alex Smith lit it up in college. Even Tannehill had a stronger senior year than Jones. No one has turned the ball over like him, no one. And I could certainly see him being successful I just feel like protecting the ball is the most basic thing a QB has to do and he's going to struggle with that at least a bit no matter how good his coach is IMO.
 
christian : 12/1/2021 10:24 am : link
NGD — this is why I think he was over drafted. I think he was probably a tail end of the first round talent who needed to land in a good situation.

I think Shurmur was a perfect fit for him — and although I understand firing him — my view was always the GM and head coach should get 3 years.

I won’t be surprised if Daniel Jones is a starter for a handful of years on a Pat Shurmur offense in the future.

I think he’s got a Teddy Bridgewater type career ahead of him.
Definitely agree Christian  
NoGainDayne : 12/1/2021 10:30 am : link
and I do wonder sometimes. What if DG went and not Shurmur? You could certainly make the argument after seeing how it has gone with DJ since we'd be way better off that way. Could he have taken a step forward under Shurmur? I think so.

That's where I think we agree that ultimately the problem is our assessment systems. It too often seems like the owners care more about what kind of story they can sell and their comfort level / control. Over getting to the root of these problems. I think Shurmur also used Barkley better and that could have changed things...

Their media puppets went hard after Shurmur to protect DG / management.

RE: …  
Johnny5 : 12/1/2021 11:40 am : link
In comment 15475518 christian said:
Quote:
NGD — this is why I think he was over drafted. I think he was probably a tail end of the first round talent who needed to land in a good situation.

I think Shurmur was a perfect fit for him — and although I understand firing him — my view was always the GM and head coach should get 3 years.

I won’t be surprised if Daniel Jones is a starter for a handful of years on a Pat Shurmur offense in the future.

I think he’s got a Teddy Bridgewater type career ahead of him.

I think this is a solid take. I don't see us moving on from him yet, because what are our options really. Not many good ones. Keep him for next year and keep building the team. OL and Pass rush makes this a pretty good team. I just don't see a short timeframe to fix the OL with the Gates injury. Andrew Thomas seems to be the only legit quality lineman at this point. Maddening. The Gettleman hire has really set this franchise back. They really needed to bring in someone with a plan well beyond ust trying to win with Eli.
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