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NFT: FF Thread Week 13

superspynyg : 11/30/2021 10:11 am
Two weeks left till playoffs.
I have Taylor
Pick flex in non ppr
James Robinson vs Rams
CEH vs Den
Gronk vs ATL

Pick 2nd wr non ppr
Cooper (if he plays) vs NO (thurs night)
Gallup vs NO
Renfroe vs Wash



TIA
Taylor and Conner are my 2 starting rbs  
superspynyg : 11/30/2021 10:12 am : link
in this league
Cooper and Robinson  
ajr2456 : 11/30/2021 11:18 am : link
.
gronk and Renfrow  
GNewGiants : 11/30/2021 11:23 am : link
Waller is out this week.
In the most interesting spot  
GNewGiants : 11/30/2021 11:26 am : link
I need to start 3 RBs. And all of them may be top 12 plays of the week and I have to decide from 4.

Mitchell against Seahawks
Ekeler against Cincy
Henderson against Jacksonville
Gibson against Las Vegas

My best running back has the toughest matchup and my worst RB just had a monster night last night. I think Henderson is the best play cause of how bad Stafford has been.
I needed 5 lousy points  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 12:06 pm : link
from DK Metcalf last night. FIVE. That's not hard.

He finally got a target late in the 4th quarter. My team needed to win to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and improve to 6-6. Now at 5-7, I need to win out the last 3, and get help.

Salt in the wound is that I was flip-flopping between Melvin Gordon and Javante Williams. Needed to play one of them, I chose Gordon, would've won if I went the other way.

That said, in my larger money league I not only have the best team I think I've ever had in fantasy football, I had a league-high in points, and now are on the low-end of a 3-way tie for first place, with 4th place (the final playoff spot), a distant 2 games back with 3 to play. Good news bad news with that team, is that I may have lost DeAndre Swift for a week or two, but I had been hanging on to Alexander Mattison as a non-Dalvin Cook owner, and that decision is now about to pay off in spades. And can we get some love for Joe Mixon? Wow, he's been on fire this season. Playing like a fantasy MVP.

I definitely want the top seed, which I think is critical, because whoever the 2 and 3 seeds are, it's going to be a tough matchup. My team in that one:

QBs: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert
RBs: Joe Mixon, DeAndre Swift, Eli Mitchell, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Alexander Mattison, D'Onta Foreman
WRs: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Jaylen Waddle, OBJ, Brandon Aiyuk
TEs: Travis Kelce, Dawson Knox
DEF: Patriots

Having a heavy Buffalo squad and the Patriots defense is definitely not a good thing for me this week with the Patriots @ Buffalo for week 13. But I can't drop the Patriots D, they're too good right now. And it seems crazy to bench Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in favor of Herbert and a backup WR. Thoughts?

I do think Waddle is now in must start territory, so my early lineup for week 13 is:

QB: Josh Allen vs Patriots
WR: Diggs vs Patriots
WR: Thielen @ Detroit
RB: Mixon vs LA Chargers
RB: Mattison @ Detroit
TE: Kelce vs Denver
Flex: Eli Mitchell @ Seattle
Flex: Waddle vs NYG
Defense: Patriots @ BUFF

No kicker in this league. Only question really is do I bench Diggs against that NE Secondary with J.C. Jackson in favor of...OBJ vs JAX or Aiyuk vs Seattle? Remember, Deebo is going to miss time so ostensibly Aiyuk becomes the #1 WR.

I don't think I can ever really bench Diggs, but I know Belichick loves to focus on shutting down the top two targets of the opposing team.

Thoughts/opinions welcome.

RE: In the most interesting spot  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 12:12 pm : link
In comment 15474115 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
I need to start 3 RBs. And all of them may be top 12 plays of the week and I have to decide from 4.

Mitchell against Seahawks
Ekeler against Cincy
Henderson against Jacksonville
Gibson against Las Vegas

My best running back has the toughest matchup and my worst RB just had a monster night last night. I think Henderson is the best play cause of how bad Stafford has been.


I would bench Gibson out of those options. The top 3 choices are so awesome. You know Ekeler is going to be a big factor in the passing game vs Cincy, and he's been amazing after the catch. No way in hell you can bench Mitchell, especially vs that bad Seattle defense that allowed Heinecke and Gibson to march down the field methodically for long, sustained drives. And Henderson vs Jacksonville...that actually is a bad matchup and I might be changing my mind here. Stay tuned and I'm about to throw some stats at you in a few minutes.
OK last 6 games  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 12:21 pm : link
Jacksonville vs Jonathan Taylor:

21 carries, 116 yards (5.52 yds/carry), 1 TD, 6 catches, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Jacksonville vs all other RBs in that span:

88 carries for 272 yards (3.09 avg), no TDs, 22 receptions, 171 yards (7.77 yards per catch) no TDs.

I lost this past week  
pjcas18 : 11/30/2021 12:25 pm : link
because I started Miles Sander over Josh Jacobs.

My reason was I did not want another player playing on Thursday.

I already had Dak, Hockenson and Bill D on Thursday.

I lost by 1.5 points, I would have won by 10 and been in 1st place in the points race. Now I'm 6 back in points.

Live and learn.
.  
pjcas18 : 11/30/2021 12:26 pm : link
*Sanders and *Bills D
RE: RE: In the most interesting spot  
GNewGiants : 11/30/2021 12:26 pm : link
In comment 15474202 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 15474115 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


I need to start 3 RBs. And all of them may be top 12 plays of the week and I have to decide from 4.

Mitchell against Seahawks
Ekeler against Cincy
Henderson against Jacksonville
Gibson against Las Vegas

My best running back has the toughest matchup and my worst RB just had a monster night last night. I think Henderson is the best play cause of how bad Stafford has been.



I would bench Gibson out of those options. The top 3 choices are so awesome. You know Ekeler is going to be a big factor in the passing game vs Cincy, and he's been amazing after the catch. No way in hell you can bench Mitchell, especially vs that bad Seattle defense that allowed Heinecke and Gibson to march down the field methodically for long, sustained drives. And Henderson vs Jacksonville...that actually is a bad matchup and I might be changing my mind here. Stay tuned and I'm about to throw some stats at you in a few minutes.


if Mckissic is out, Gibson may be a top 5 plays this week.
Last 6 games  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 12:38 pm : link
Las Vegas vs Joe Mixon

30 carries, 123 yards (4.1 ypc), 2 TDs, no receptions.

Las Vegas vs all other RBs in that span:

106 carries, 463 yards (4.36 ypc), 2 TDs, 42 receptions, 287 yards (6.83 yards per catch), 2 TDs.

LV vs RBs last 6 games Overall: 586 yards rushing on 136 carries (4.3 ypc), 4 TDs, same receiving totals as above (no Mixon receptions)

JAX vs RBs last 6 games Overall: 388 yards rushing on 109 carries (3.56 ypc), 1 TD, 181 yards on 28 catches (6.46 yards per catch), no TDs.

I think given how well Jacksonville is playing against RBs (with the exception of Taylor), I think you can play Gibson over Henderson in your matchup this week and feel really good about it. I know it feels weird to bench Henderson in a matchup against a bad Jacksonville team where game script seems to favor him, but I think the Gibson vs LV matchup is statistically much more favorable given these numbers.
RE: I lost this past week  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 12:44 pm : link
In comment 15474227 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
because I started Miles Sander over Josh Jacobs.

My reason was I did not want another player playing on Thursday.

I already had Dak, Hockenson and Bill D on Thursday.

I lost by 1.5 points, I would have won by 10 and been in 1st place in the points race. Now I'm 6 back in points.

Live and learn.


Yikes. I get the short week hesitation, though. I really hate Thursday games (EXCEPT on Thanksgiving, which is just a tradition). But for fantasy it's always trepidatious.
So, doing research on New England's DEF against receivers  
allstarjim : 11/30/2021 1:00 pm : link
And it's not pretty. The only #1 type of receiver that has really torched the Patriots this year has been CeeDee Lamb. Houston's Chris Moore is the only other guy that went over 100 yards against them the entire season (109 yards, 5 catches, 1 TD, back in week 5).

Lamb in week 6: 9 catches on 11 targets, 149 yards, 2 TDs.

Since that Dallas game, though, only Keenan Allen has topped 50 yards against the Patriots, and cumulatively, they have allowed only 3 TDs to WRs in the last 5 games: Allen, Corey Davis, and Josh Palmer.

The opponents in the last 5 weeks against New England: Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, so quality of comp might work in their favor.

The last time the Bills played New England was week 16 last year, Diggs had 9 catches on 11 targets for 145 yards and 3 TDs. That further complicates things, but that team wasn't nearly as good as this Patriots team. Diggs had 6 catches on 9 targets earlier last season for 92 yards and no TDs.

So, given the above, am I crazy for actually thinking of benching Diggs vs the Patriots? And how bad is it, do I really consider Herbert over Allen with the Chargers @ Cinci this week?

Last 6 weeks, Patriots DEF vs Opposing QBs: 5 TDs-13 INTs. Seriously. 5-13 TD to INT ratio.

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