The Giants are 6-5 against the spread this year. There bad losses occurred against arguably the best teams: DAL, LAR & TB. I lump in the Dolphins with teams like the Saints, Panthers, Raiders & Eagles. Giants won all those games as dogs outright.
I think the bet has to be NYG +6 and would not rule out a win.
Ive been thinking it might even be worth taking the risk betting the money line. But then I started thinking about it….
Dolphins are home and have won 4 straight. They really beat up on the Ravens and I think proved that wasn’t fully a fluke by then beating up on the Panthers as well. I know we did the same, but that win over the a Ravens just looked very impressive, if that team shows up we’re in trouble. My guess is since the Dolphins were pretty good last year people are assuming like “now that they are healthy they have returned to playoff-team form of last year” etc.
They also have their starting QB while Giants do not. That’s worth a few points right there (not quite the full TD that Rodgers —> Love was worth in the spread vs the Chiefs but a few points nonetheless). Tua absolutely gives them a better chance to win than Brissett. I also don’t know why so many people on this site seem to be saying that there’s really no difference between Glennon and Jones. I’m not the biggest Jones fan but we really don’t know if Glennon can get us a win. Colt McCoy was a good backup for us, but that was Colt McCoy— his game was more tailored to fit Garrett’s system than Jones’ game, so it made some sense. At the end of the day Glennon is still our 2nd string guy; and the Dolphins would still be a slight favorite even assuming a neutral field but obviously they’re home.
I think all of that combined — slightly better team (-1.5), home field (-1.5), starting QB advantage (-3.0) — adds up to 6 points. I made those numbers up but you know what I mean.
RE: Say what you will about the Giants, but they perform well ATS..
The Giants are 6-5 against the spread this year. There bad losses occurred against arguably the best teams: DAL, LAR & TB. I lump in the Dolphins with teams like the Saints, Panthers, Raiders & Eagles. Giants won all those games as dogs outright.
I think the bet has to be NYG +6 and would not rule out a win.
6-5 means they “perform well against the spread”? I believe a team on average would be expected to be about .500 against the spread if Vegas really has it right…
I do see your other point about the fact the Giants perform better ATS as slight under dogs (often winning those games outright even) while against the top tier teams vs which they’re massive underdogs they typically get blown the hell out by a much greater margin than the spread. That said— going by the line I see now (+6.5), they’re kind of in a spot slightly in between all that. Yes they beat the Saints as +7 dogs, but other than that one instance it appears the spreads have always been either much larger than that or are more in the +2/+3 range (not to mention losing to the Falcons as slight favorites)
Honestly I think the facts that we have no idea what Glennon is going to bring for us is making the whole thing a massive wild card. If Glennon is serviceable maybe we should only be +3 dogs. If he’s just flat out bad maybe it should be +10. I’m guessing that sort of uncertain range of outcomes led to the +6.5.
I'm pretty sure Graham will use the right strategy
let young Tua matriculate the ball the down the field with our bend but don't break D, increasing the chances of mistakes and injury. Set it up as a favorable matchup between Tua and McKinney.
Miami is the home team, very warm weather, Miami is playing very well and their D is creating turnovers, the Giants are below average, and it's Mike Glennon.
On the other hand, Tua should inspire no one and Miami's OL has had games where they've been horrible.
Miami is the home team, very warm weather, Miami is playing very well and their D is creating turnovers, the Giants are below average, and it's Mike Glennon.
On the other hand, Tua should inspire no one and Miami's OL has had games where they've been horrible.
I will say though that even though tua isn’t a world beater, I think he’s a bit underrated. Just from watching he definitely gives them a much better chance to win than Brissett ever could I feel. Also from what I can tell this year he seems to constantly be labeled “inconsistent” honestly it more just seems that way because he keeps coming in and out of the lineup with injuries. No doubt though he’s a flawed young player and can be beaten but I just wanted to say I feel like for some reason people have been extra quick to write Tua off as a bust when really he’s been decent this year when healthy.
I would put it at 5 or 5.5. The G Men are going on the road as the walking wounded with a backup QB. Neither team is very good but the Dolphins are at home and are playing a shade better than the Giants.
I think the bet has to be NYG +6 and would not rule out a win.
Dolphins are home and have won 4 straight. They really beat up on the Ravens and I think proved that wasn’t fully a fluke by then beating up on the Panthers as well. I know we did the same, but that win over the a Ravens just looked very impressive, if that team shows up we’re in trouble. My guess is since the Dolphins were pretty good last year people are assuming like “now that they are healthy they have returned to playoff-team form of last year” etc.
They also have their starting QB while Giants do not. That’s worth a few points right there (not quite the full TD that Rodgers —> Love was worth in the spread vs the Chiefs but a few points nonetheless). Tua absolutely gives them a better chance to win than Brissett. I also don’t know why so many people on this site seem to be saying that there’s really no difference between Glennon and Jones. I’m not the biggest Jones fan but we really don’t know if Glennon can get us a win. Colt McCoy was a good backup for us, but that was Colt McCoy— his game was more tailored to fit Garrett’s system than Jones’ game, so it made some sense. At the end of the day Glennon is still our 2nd string guy; and the Dolphins would still be a slight favorite even assuming a neutral field but obviously they’re home.
I think all of that combined — slightly better team (-1.5), home field (-1.5), starting QB advantage (-3.0) — adds up to 6 points. I made those numbers up but you know what I mean.
I think the bet has to be NYG +6 and would not rule out a win.
6-5 means they “perform well against the spread”? I believe a team on average would be expected to be about .500 against the spread if Vegas really has it right…
Honestly I think the facts that we have no idea what Glennon is going to bring for us is making the whole thing a massive wild card. If Glennon is serviceable maybe we should only be +3 dogs. If he’s just flat out bad maybe it should be +10. I’m guessing that sort of uncertain range of outcomes led to the +6.5.
We win 5-2.
Miami is the home team, very warm weather, Miami is playing very well and their D is creating turnovers, the Giants are below average, and it's Mike Glennon.
On the other hand, Tua should inspire no one and Miami's OL has had games where they've been horrible.
Miami is the home team, very warm weather, Miami is playing very well and their D is creating turnovers, the Giants are below average, and it's Mike Glennon.
On the other hand, Tua should inspire no one and Miami's OL has had games where they've been horrible.
I will say though that even though tua isn’t a world beater, I think he’s a bit underrated. Just from watching he definitely gives them a much better chance to win than Brissett ever could I feel. Also from what I can tell this year he seems to constantly be labeled “inconsistent” honestly it more just seems that way because he keeps coming in and out of the lineup with injuries. No doubt though he’s a flawed young player and can be beaten but I just wanted to say I feel like for some reason people have been extra quick to write Tua off as a bust when really he’s been decent this year when healthy.