organizational all-stars (some of which are no longer even around... David Thompson, Drew Jackson and Winans are all "ex-Mets", Cortes we shall see) Link - ( New Window )
like Baty a whole lot but hard to see a scenario he sees time in Queens this year. In large part what you noted (doesn't have to be added until after 2022) but he's also not a defensive "asset" even if he ends up average at 3b, hard to see a team down the stretch turning to a guy like that vs. a veteran addition (if there is a need). Sure, he could go all supernova and make it a no-brainer but with Cohens' wallet I suspect we see the Mets as a "salary dump destination" at deadlines going forward. Baty ended up struggling a bit in the AFL and he was good, not great in AA. I suspect he spends at least half the season at AA, finishes in AAA and is in the mix next year to open the season depending on the roster makeup.
How concerned are you about the talk coming from the AFL that Baty struggles against elite velocity, given how much priority teams give to velocity over pitchability these days?
More concerned with him having to learn to lift the ball. There are quite a few high exist velocity guys who never were able to figure it out. If he’s hitting wormburners 3000 mph, it’s really no different than having a lesser exit velocity. That being said he’s an extremely hard worker and I suspect he’ll figure it out. It’s a legitimate concern until it’s not but let’s see 2022 before really becoming concerned. If it’s an issue this year then it’s a legitimate issue upside wise
The teaching has more recently included a tweak to his swing mechanics. Asked about his bat path having been described as steep in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Baty shared that he’s been “working a lot with the analytical guys on attack angle” and is now “keeping a better on-plane efficiency.” There is still swing-and-miss to Baty’s game — his strikeout rate is 25.7% on the season — but not enough to where he profiles as an all-or-nothing slugger. Light tower power notwithstanding, he aspires to be much more than that.
either of those guys makes the most sense of what's out there on the trade market. I didn't realize but Bassitt has actually gotten CY votes each of the last 2 seasons. If his age makes him less desirable via trade that could be the best fit. Or even if the prices are close.
is every bit as desirable as the others, and likely has the highest upside of the entire group. 3.37 FIP in 2021 (6th in CY voting). 29 in 2022 and a horse (6'2 250, made all 32 starts last year 5.9 innings per start). Pound for pound he could be the best/most interesting of the 6 SP's. Steamer has both he and Castillo posting 3.9 fWAR in 2022. He's just underrated.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
the last 2 seasons, 14 SP have a lower FIP than Bassitt (3.41), he's 23rd in fWAR during that time and that includes time missed after being hit in the face with a liner. He's basically been a top 20 SP in the sport over the last 2.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
can't verify this but apparently the plaque next to the home run apple (the original apple) says the apple dates back to 1981... but really was installed in 1980? lol
was reminded by that book that I keep referencing (I don't know the author or have any stake in his sales lol) that Fred had to be browbeaten into adding more Mets specific stuff to CitiField. What a joke.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
I won't argue the unknown but the flip side is an older guy potentially could take less years (won't get long years) and in some ways that can be ideal. If they were to trade for Bassitt, like what they see first half, something like a 2 year extension (at more money then he's made over his entire career) might very well appeal to him. Like I said, I'd take any of the 6 (happily).
I think i would prefer Bassitt and Montas of the 6 and agree that Montas has the most upside. He gets his FB up to 97-98 with a real good split. He might be the only "available" pitcher I would prefer over Rodon. Huge fan.
Doug
@FTLO_Baseball
·
9m
Right background. I'm sure it's a good hire. But someone is probably going to point out that the Rangers broke all of their minor league arms a few years ago. Hey, you live and you learn.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
Replying to
@FTLO_Baseball
he's personally well-regarded, but also The Rangers
signed 2 kids from Curacao, considering they signing this late in the process they likely aren't major talents but the Braves traditionally have done well with Curacao, in large part thanks to Andruw Jones influence.
ZiPS has Castellanos falling back down to earth. 2.3 fWAR projection, 121 wRC+
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Well, Castellanos won't be playing half of his games in Cincy so that will depress his numbers. Mahle's home/road stats are quite stark which is one reason why I think he could outperform his past numbers moving to Citi Field. My concern obviously would be with his long ball tendencies I would try to minimize the number of times he needs to pitch @ Philly.
RE: Haven't kept up with latest. So is this down to just
system is pretty shitty, they really should aim for the best possible prospects for their SP. I know they are trying to cut payroll but their SP should be able to help bolster their system.
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
The Afterman/Ferreira/Adler/Mejdal group is hard to evaluate because it's probably the more likely group to contain the false rumors Law alleged, and had any of them interviewed I'd imagine it would have been unlikely for them to beat out Eppler. Are they probably smart execs and could they be good choices? Maybe. But like Cromie they are all far riskier hires then Eppler.
In a way with Cohen's money you may not need a GM with the most genius/creative strategy a la TB. Signing Scherzer is as uncreative of a move as there is. So imo there's a lot of value in simply having a credible, competent, experienced leader.
And giving that person the resources to hire/attract/homegrow as many young creative geniuses under him in the FO as possible.
Martino they asked for permission to speak to Ferriera, they had an informal talk and then she pulled her name. I find it hard to believe that was a "fake one". Wouldn't have cost the Mets anything to have a formal interview (and would have been positive PR), seems unlikely they asked for permission and then opted not to use it, more likely they exchanged pleasantries and it wasn't for her (for whatever reasons).
far as Eppler, quite frankly I don't have any real way to judge him yet. They spent significant money on the players they liked/targeted but spending money in itself is the "easiest" part of the job. Could I negotiate contracts? No. But I do think I could say "let's outbid the field for these players I like" lol.. this is not a knock on Eppler in any way.
while im sure their offers were highest they didn't overpay beyond
projections for pretty much any of the guys they got (Scherzer included) so I do think the org deserve some credit (divide up credit however you choose among Eppler/Cohen/Sandy) for being able to sell signing with the mets without having to give up multiple extra years beyond the projections like Texas did with Semien.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
RE: while im sure their offers were highest they didn't overpay beyond
projections for pretty much any of the guys they got (Scherzer included) so I do think the org deserve some credit (divide up credit however you choose among Eppler/Cohen/Sandy) for being able to sell signing with the mets without having to give up multiple extra years beyond the projections like Texas did with Semien.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
Martino they asked for permission to speak to Ferriera, they had an informal talk and then she pulled her name. I find it hard to believe that was a "fake one". Wouldn't have cost the Mets anything to have a formal interview (and would have been positive PR), seems unlikely they asked for permission and then opted not to use it, more likely they exchanged pleasantries and it wasn't for her (for whatever reasons).
I'm not saying she (or any of them) were specifically the fake name, there's no way for us to know. Just that I think it's more likely that group which was basically the 3rd tier of the search included whoever Law spoke to that was never actually contacted.
The tier 1 people were all publicly known.
Tier 2 were all the obvious candidates and most of the activity around them was been public (formal interview requests / denials / promotions)
The tier 3 crew was a lot more unknown. Some were probably real some probably weren't.
no, I don't think Eppler is the reason they were able to lure in guys like Canha/Marte vs. a "first time" GM. That's not even really how these negotiations go. Per Kevin Goldstein, teams have xyz assigned to specific agents so maybe (maybe even likely) that Eppler has Boras, it's unlikely he himself was negotiating all of these deals himself. Again, this isn't being critical at all, I just have yet to see anything that was a "interesting" move. This is outbidding, I'm happy they have done so.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Hear Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro made a great impression with Mets higherups. Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviews tonight and Buck Showalter tomorrow. Showalter seems like safe choice due to successful MLB track record but hear it’s more “divided” than fans/media expect.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
the fact that they were obvious names is my point. if you have the biggest spending owner you don't necessarily need to be an overly creative genius who reinvents the wheel beyond the obvious.
you need to be credible to sell agents/players.
and competent to act quickly/effectively.
I think Eppler's skill set has appeared to be a very good fit for what ended up taking place over his first month. Others may have had a similar skill set or the exact same plan but none had the experience of having done it for real like he had so it's uncertain whether or not they would have been able to execute. Eppler has been hitting his free throws down the stretch when it's mattered - which isn't nothing.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
MLBTR has been the most accurate with their projections thus far.
They projected the players the Mets signed to get $244m.
The Mets signed those players for $254.5m for the exact number of years projected.
by comparison Semien got 1 more year and +$37m more in total all by himself from Tex. Seager was +$20m. Baez +$40m.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
22m
FWIW, I hear Alderson favors Quatraro, which makes him my least favorite choice of the three. I want a manager who will have a voice and isn't afraid to push back when it's appropriate.
Jim BowdenBaseball
@JimBowdenGM
·
28m
If #Mets decide to hire a manager & put too much emphasis on the interviews.. it might not bode well for Buck Showalter. However, if the #Mets look hard at all the factors given their present situation including ownership immediate expectations than Showalter is the right hire.
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
24s
The verdict in Zack Scott’s drunk-driving case, scheduled for Thursday, was postponed until January because he contracted COVID-19.
Link - ( New Window )
How concerned are you about the talk coming from the AFL that Baty struggles against elite velocity, given how much priority teams give to velocity over pitchability these days?
the biggest issue with those 3 relative to the Oakland guys is they have more YOC so the trade costs will be higher.
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Link - ( New Window )
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
Quote:
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
I won't argue the unknown but the flip side is an older guy potentially could take less years (won't get long years) and in some ways that can be ideal. If they were to trade for Bassitt, like what they see first half, something like a 2 year extension (at more money then he's made over his entire career) might very well appeal to him. Like I said, I'd take any of the 6 (happily).
@FTLO_Baseball
·
9m
Right background. I'm sure it's a good hire. But someone is probably going to point out that the Rangers broke all of their minor league arms a few years ago. Hey, you live and you learn.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
Replying to
@FTLO_Baseball
he's personally well-regarded, but also The Rangers
Jonathan "Jono" Armold
Link - ( New Window )
Also 15 year old Cuban phenom Christian Baez has reportedly defected
Quote:
Hired Dan Arnold as minor league pitching coordinator. Was previously with the Rangers.
Jonathan "Jono" Armold Link - ( New Window )
Whoops. Had NFL players on my mind.
Saez
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Well, Castellanos won't be playing half of his games in Cincy so that will depress his numbers. Mahle's home/road stats are quite stark which is one reason why I think he could outperform his past numbers moving to Citi Field. My concern obviously would be with his long ball tendencies I would try to minimize the number of times he needs to pitch @ Philly.
Correct.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Quote:
named new GM of the Rays, explains (at least in part) why he passed on the Mets GM job.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
Quote:
In comment 15497552 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
named new GM of the Rays, explains (at least in part) why he passed on the Mets GM job.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
The Afterman/Ferreira/Adler/Mejdal group is hard to evaluate because it's probably the more likely group to contain the false rumors Law alleged, and had any of them interviewed I'd imagine it would have been unlikely for them to beat out Eppler. Are they probably smart execs and could they be good choices? Maybe. But like Cromie they are all far riskier hires then Eppler.
In a way with Cohen's money you may not need a GM with the most genius/creative strategy a la TB. Signing Scherzer is as uncreative of a move as there is. So imo there's a lot of value in simply having a credible, competent, experienced leader.
And giving that person the resources to hire/attract/homegrow as many young creative geniuses under him in the FO as possible.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
I'm not saying she (or any of them) were specifically the fake name, there's no way for us to know. Just that I think it's more likely that group which was basically the 3rd tier of the search included whoever Law spoke to that was never actually contacted.
The tier 1 people were all publicly known.
Tier 2 were all the obvious candidates and most of the activity around them was been public (formal interview requests / denials / promotions)
The tier 3 crew was a lot more unknown. Some were probably real some probably weren't.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
@JonHeyman
Hear Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro made a great impression with Mets higherups. Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviews tonight and Buck Showalter tomorrow. Showalter seems like safe choice due to successful MLB track record but hear it’s more “divided” than fans/media expect.
The 5 better-
deGrom
Hendriks
Burnes
Clase
Loasaiga
DOMINANT.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
the fact that they were obvious names is my point. if you have the biggest spending owner you don't necessarily need to be an overly creative genius who reinvents the wheel beyond the obvious.
you need to be credible to sell agents/players.
and competent to act quickly/effectively.
I think Eppler's skill set has appeared to be a very good fit for what ended up taking place over his first month. Others may have had a similar skill set or the exact same plan but none had the experience of having done it for real like he had so it's uncertain whether or not they would have been able to execute. Eppler has been hitting his free throws down the stretch when it's mattered - which isn't nothing.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
MLBTR has been the most accurate with their projections thus far.
They projected the players the Mets signed to get $244m.
The Mets signed those players for $254.5m for the exact number of years projected.
by comparison Semien got 1 more year and +$37m more in total all by himself from Tex. Seager was +$20m. Baez +$40m.
@MarkCHealey
·
22m
FWIW, I hear Alderson favors Quatraro, which makes him my least favorite choice of the three. I want a manager who will have a voice and isn't afraid to push back when it's appropriate.
Jim BowdenBaseball
@JimBowdenGM
·
28m
If #Mets decide to hire a manager & put too much emphasis on the interviews.. it might not bode well for Buck Showalter. However, if the #Mets look hard at all the factors given their present situation including ownership immediate expectations than Showalter is the right hire.
@timbhealey
·
24s
The verdict in Zack Scott’s drunk-driving case, scheduled for Thursday, was postponed until January because he contracted COVID-19.