buck, bochy, espada, quatraro, ausmus. now they need to make a good decision but all of them have appeal and im sure whichever they choose will stand out for some reason that will also give us optimism they got the choice right.
Moustakas is likely owed too much money for it to make sense for @mets
to take him back in a deal for a SP (to lower the prospect cost) but it might be something they explore
rises out of this initial group (even if it's just 1 candidate who stands out). I think I'd guess yes and I think that's probably a good thing. Cohen has showed decent instincts so far (especially not promoting Scott early) and think it's in part because he obviously sees things through a different lens than a baseball lifer since he's not that.
Quote:
martinonyc's avatar
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Expect Mets managerial interviews to begin this week -- news on permission requests and actual interviews w/the names reported Friday: Kelly, Quatraro, Espada, Showalter, Ausmus. Other names are on list and may join the party later.
Interesting note from @Kevin_Goldstein
in most cases players can remain in contact with teams head physicians during the LO as they are considered private contractors #Mets
Derrick
12:42
Have you heard what an international draft would look like? Currently players sign ~age 16. Would players be draft eligible at that age?
Kevin Goldstein
12:43
Likely 15-20 rounds. Likely hard slots. Likely hard cap on players signed after the draft. And yes, 16.
Per @fangraphs @yankees are expected to sign 2 of the top 7 best international players in the world (Mayea and Arias). @mets not connected to any of the top 70. This includes players not yet able to sign (under contracts with NPB teams etc) #Mets
Dan, what's your thinking on this. The Mets want to be data-driven. Showalter's not the type of manager to listen to tips from the office about who the play and where, is he?
Dan, what's your thinking on this. The Mets want to be data-driven. Showalter's not the type of manager to listen to tips from the office about who the play and where, is he?
I personally believe "manager" to be a pretty overvalued role. A huge part of it is controlling the clubhouse and the media. James Click started his career as a part time data scientist/BP contributor, he's running the Astros, Anthopoulos is on record regard how much he learned from the Dodgers and their analytics team, we all know about the Rays and Dodgers.
Every successful team is moving towards a model where the FO provides data and "light prodding" to their manager and it's a groupthink with decision making. Showalter won't be the hire unless they feel he can work within this type of setup. They have made 36 analytics hires, and are still hiring. If they feel Buck is receptive. His quotes from 2018 seem to imply he'd be open to such a setup, if they don't think he is, he won't be the hire.
"Buck Showalter: “One thing about analytics is that we all question what we don’t understand. You need to learn, so during the spring we do Analytics for Dummies. That’s what we call it. We take our most veteran baseball people, our on-the-field lifers, and bring them upstairs to go over every analytic there is and find the [equivalent of a] .300 batting average in every one of them. We take the black cloud of unknown away from it.
“What we’ve found is that most of our veteran people go, ‘Oh, really? That’s all it is?’ They’re not demeaning it, they’re just saying, ‘Now I understand.’ Know where the .300 batting average of WAR is, and what it tells you. Just as important, what doesn’t it tell you that you have to be aware of.
and wow does buck seem like perfect guy for this team right now. could not agree with him more re defense and the pros/cons of analytics. If they choose someone else I won't be too disappointed because the whole group seems strong and it means that person stood out from Buck in some way, but i'm really glad he's in this interview process. it seems like he's really a good fit for what this org needs.
Quote:
“The responsibility of leadership in today’s public world… Chase Utley is one of them, but it’s hard to find guys who are willing to be publicly viewed as That Guy. There’s the constant scrutiny. You say something to a teammate privately, trying to help him, or maybe constructively criticize, and if it gets out there publicly… it’s just different. Not that guys won’t do it, but there’s so much to being a major-league player that it’s hard to take on that responsibility, too. You used to have three or four of them on a team. That’s something that’s changed, the responsibility and burden of leadership.
like Ausmus the least of the names being mentioned but not so strongly that I'll be really upset. I just find him to be the least interesting/intriguing but I won't be going on a long rant about how awful the hire is if he's the pick. I reserve the right to change my tune if they hire somebody truly ridiculous (Larry Bowa? c'mon lol).
like Ausmus the least of the names being mentioned but not so strongly that I'll be really upset. I just find him to be the least interesting/intriguing but I won't be going on a long rant about how awful the hire is if he's the pick. I reserve the right to change my tune if they hire somebody truly ridiculous (Larry Bowa? c'mon lol).
Ausmus seems like a compromise candidate. if they want someone with managing experience but more youthful than buck.
wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it.
buck imo has the highest short term upside.
highest long term upside? who knows but probably not buck just because he's older. but he's 6 years younger than Dusty and if whoever they hire lasts 6 years+ it will be a successful hire.
like Ausmus the least of the names being mentioned but not so strongly that I'll be really upset. I just find him to be the least interesting/intriguing but I won't be going on a long rant about how awful the hire is if he's the pick. I reserve the right to change my tune if they hire somebody truly ridiculous (Larry Bowa? c'mon lol).
Ausmus seems like a compromise candidate. if they want someone with managing experience but more youthful than buck.
wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it.
buck imo has the highest short term upside.
highest long term upside? who knows but probably not buck just because he's older. but he's 6 years younger than Dusty and if whoever they hire lasts 6 years+ it will be a successful hire.
Ausmus just strikes me as quite vanilla. Smart guy I'm sure (Dartmouth) but I've never really heard anybody rave about him. I'm sure he'd be fine, just wouldn't be enthusiastic about it personally.
vanilla is the exact right description of his resume
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Mets have reached out to interview Astros bench coach Joe Espada. Has strong link to Billy Eppler from when they were both with Yankees. Serious contender.
so if they had to get permission on Quatraro and Espada
i'd presume the interviews today/tomorrow were Buck + Ausmus? they don't need permission on bochy either right?
in this case it makes sense to do the experienced guys first and let them set a bar. then see if someone else exceeds that bar.
Bochy is in fact employed with the Giants, but I doubt they would need permission as his job is "special advisor" which is basically a part-time role. It's possible out of respect to the Giants, they would still ask for permission (which the Giants obviously would grant).
then logistically they do probably have to ask for permission
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman
1m
Mets managerial interviews begin today, though it isn’t known who had the leadoff position among candidates. GM Billy Eppler and baseball ops will conduct initial interviews. Owner Steve Cohen will get involved for final interviews.
Lack of experience would seem to be his major negative; after Rojas do they go in that direction again?
The problem is outside of Bochy the only experienced manager who has had any success, although every team did better AFTER he left, is Buck Showalter. The problem I have seen with the recent Mets managers is that they did not have a feel for the game. They always seemed to either be too early or too late when making moves. You will never get it right 100% of the time, but whatever the Mets tried always seemed to backfire.
a first time manager. if it's the right person, and obviously sometimes you don't know until you know. So I acknowledge it's a risk.
but Alex Cora, as an example, won a World Series in year 1 of being a manager. Which is why I felt like Beltran, also as an example, would be no less risky than a retread.
(and they apparently had a contentious relationship) Dan Duquette claimed Showalter ignored data given to him which was evidenced by xyz pitchers having success after they left. On the same token both Britt Ghiroli/Dan Connolly (both of whom covered the Orioles) called him the best manager they ever covered.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14s
Only 5 Mets managerial candidates are known so far — Showalter, Ausmus, Espada, Quatraro, Kelly — but with upgraded vetting and a couple interview rounds expected, no hire is expected this week. There also could be a mystery candidate or more (unknown).
Michael Marino
@MichaelMarino37
·
59m
Source: Steve Cohen has told Billy Eppler that he wants Buck Showalter as #Mets manager. He has given Billy the ability to conduct his own search, but Billy is aware of his preference. Additionally, “At least 1 big name Mets player wants Buck and is vocal about it”.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
13m
.@martinonyc
says Bob Geren will b interviewed for #Mets manager. My take: Of all the potential hires, this would be the very worst. Nice guy, suits & media speak highly of him. I say he's tactically inept, esp w BP. If he gets gig, Alderson made the call. This cannot stand.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
9m
.@MetsDaddy2013
"Players did not trust Geren to do what managers do. He lost the team and could not get it back, and Beane had to fire him ... no one defended Geren. Not one A's player defended him. No one from other organizations defended him."
Not sure that players should be the guiding force in picking a mgr.
That was the worst since the 1962 Mets. (Detroit also won only 47 a year later).
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Cobb posted a 4.90 era, Bundy 5.45, Bundy stunk the following year without Buck as well (4.73 FIP), Cobb pitched 3 games (11 era) and then got her in 2019.
Trumbo 0.3 fWAR in 2018, Jones 0.6 (played one more season NEGATIVE fWAR and then headed to Japan). That was a really bad team.
RE: Not sure that players should be the guiding force in picking a mgr.
But Showalter seems like the type of man to build a program up.
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Maybe the '95 yankee team that lost to Seattle on the famous Griffey slide? But that was a team in transition. Mariano was pre-breakout, still had Mattingly, strike shortened year, etc.
He won 100 games in '99 with Arizona in their 2nd year of existence. That was a year before Schilling, who got acquired in July of his last year there then eventually became the 2nd team to win a WS the year after Buck left in '01.
In Baltimore he inherited a 64 win team and 2 years later had them on a streak of 5 years in a row above 80 (3x in the playoffs).
He's won manager of the year 3x each with a different team and led each of NYY, TEX, and BAL to big turnarounds. Ironically his 100 win year with the 2nd year expansion team he came in 4th.
In a quirk he seems to always win manager of the year on the '4 years. So look out in 2024.
Manager of the Year Voting
1993 AL Manager of the Year (2nd) 1994 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
1995 AL Manager of the Year (4th)
1999 NL Manager of the Year (4th) 2004 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2012 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
2013 AL Manager of the Year (7th) 2014 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2016 AL Manager of the Year (3rd)
If you are Cohen (or any of us) Buck and Bochy are by far the 2 most accomplished options in this search. So I can understand him having a preference for the best track record of success. They are the obvious choices and to choose based on something else other than pure track record I'd also want my baseball people to make a very compelling case as to why to trust a first timer.
be completely wrong but I get the feeling Bochy is an extreme long shot. Maybe his history with Sandy? Maybe he's made clear he's not that eager to return (but will listen) who knows? But he's name isn't being mentioned as much as you'd think given 3 rings.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
I think he will fare much better in a second job, as most managers do. He was a highly regarded bench coach and Triple A manager. Just didn’t quite click as big league manager the first time around.
be completely wrong but I get the feeling Bochy is an extreme long shot. Maybe his history with Sandy? Maybe he's made clear he's not that eager to return (but will listen) who knows? But he's name isn't being mentioned as much as you'd think given 3 rings.
it could be as simple as a guy you ask because he's won 3 WS in his has 9 years managing but is retired for a reason.
Having interest in him is probably an obvious leave no stone unturned, but like Beane a longshot that he's looking for something so high profile when he's been taking steps away from the game.
Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
RE: Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
Replying to
@WexlerRules
He’s a good baseball man. I suspect he will not be as overwhelmed as maybe he was the first time around.
RE: RE: Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
"Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
Connolly (he was effusive in his praise of Showalter, so the note below (to me) holds even more weight in that it does imply Showalter will have to overcome this perception AND that Showalter claiming he's changed his tune on analytics is somewhat (or could be) contrived)
"What I found illuminating was Showalter started that campaign in the last month or so of the 2018 season. After years of pointing out that “analytics” doesn’t show a specific ability or little noticed scenario, Showalter in September began talking, unprompted, about the involvement of analytics in the way his staff picks up things or conducts business, even giving credit once to Duquette’s analytics department.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
TB: How important is it early in a tenure to establish your credibility? How'd you go about that?
BS: If you're trying to establish credibility, you're not going to establish credibility. You get credibility from having good players. It's not really complicated. We don't have much impact. You can have an impact negatively, but it's about how good your players are—and mostly your pitching.
And you don't set the—the word that's overused is culture or environment. You don't set it; the players set it. Now you might set it by trying to surround yourself with certain players. The players set that. Some of the front offices today don't recognize they're just putting together 25 guys by analytics. There's a place for that and I embrace it. But the teams that are the most successful organizationally are the ones that mesh the two, where you get really good statistical analysis and really good—I don't want to say makeup, you know what I'm trying to say. If those things match up, then you've got a real good player.
dmm i'll see if i can find it but Buck was on MLBN after eppler hiring
and he talked a lot about how Eppler is a good partner to people within an organization and bridges the collaboration between different groups etc.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
RE: dmm i'll see if i can find it but Buck was on MLBN after eppler hiring
and he talked a lot about how Eppler is a good partner to people within an organization and bridges the collaboration between different groups etc.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
I like Buck and I'd be happy if they hired him but Connolly made pretty clear that Buck knows how to play the room and says what he thinks should be said so I wouldn't take too much from what he says about Eppler. Somebody he knows personally, wanted to hire him with LAA (or consider) and is the GM of a NY team.
I noted, Connolly called Showalter the best manager he's been around, so if you accept that, I think you can also accept the flip side of 1. Suddenly increasing his comments on analytics when it was clear he was viewed as out of date (and soon out of a job) 2. He'd have to accept these "bean counters" would in fact be a major part of a managers job in 2022.
Mike DiGiovanna
@MikeDiGiovanna
Replying to
@WexlerRules
and
@Mets
I wasn't the Angels beat writer in 2019 so wasn't around team enough to probably know ... there were obviously some things going on there that he was unaware of, had no control over, and maybe he should have. Once Skaggs died, team fell apart, so tough to judge him after that.
I noted, Connolly called Showalter the best manager he's been around, so if you accept that, I think you can also accept the flip side of 1. Suddenly increasing his comments on analytics when it was clear he was viewed as out of date (and soon out of a job) 2. He'd have to accept these "bean counters" would in fact be a major part of a managers job in 2022.
I don't think being resistant to some analytics makes someone anti-analytics. skepticism can be healthy - and I thought buck did a good job explaining his skepticism in the interview you posted yesterday.
I agree with him 100% that you can't just accept war or RC or any of the defensive metrics or any cumulative stat on it's face without questioning the inputs and understanding what those stats are telling you.
I was (am) 100% against the anti-BA trend that was popular several years ago and also against the anti-defense trend a few years ago. I'm not sure how broad those arguments were around the game vs. justifications some met fans were using to defend players on the mets at the time like Bruce/Duda/etc but i completely agree with buck that analytics can be bent to any narrative if you don't keep them in context.
ex. Lucas Duda's career RC as a Met is likely significantly higher than a very long list of players I would take over him even if we were just talking offensively (so taking position and defensive impact out of the equation). He was the perfect case study on the limits of the true 3 outcome player.
that's a bit different than this (from somebody who actually covered the team)
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
Dan didn't 1 of the comments above say BAL only had 1 analytics person
that's a bit different than this (from somebody who actually covered the team)
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
if so and Baltimore didn't invest in a quality analytics team, doesn't that make the position that much more justifiable?
on a quick look it seems Baltimore has only had 1 payroll in the top half of baseball in the last decade, and very many at the bottom, so it stands to reason that they were not investing the way the teams who are really good at analytics were.
don't think the Mets employee a single ex-player in their analytics department, does that mean Showalter won't listen to them? Billy Eppler pitched 3.2 college innings, does that somehow make his opinions more valid? If you believe Duquette, Showalter flat out ignored the analytics department. I'm reading/taking in all sides of this, you seem to be so sure you want Buck you're formulating scenarios. If you believe Duquette, this is rather damning
Quote:
In surprising comments from Duquette to The Athletic, he lashed out at Showalter’s supposed reluctance to use analytics.
“The question is why did (Wade) Miley, Edwin Jackson, (Jeremy) Hellickson, (Kevin) Gausman, Britton, (Brad) Brach and (Vidal) Nuño pitch more effectively with other clubs than with the O’s and, conversely, what made (Alex) Cobb and (Andrew) Cashner less effective with the O’s in 2018 than they were in 2017? And why are the agents calling the front office to intercede, to request the club implement a more analytical approach with the major-league field staff?” Duquette said.
The difference in his numbers — from -18 DRS and -7.2 UZR with the 115-loss Orioles to +6 and +0.8 with the 92-win Dodgers — also reveal one of the fissures between two top officials recently fired by Baltimore, executive vice-president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
This is a dark picture of the team and it’s been painted by the guy who was supposed to have been in charge. If agents were really calling up Duquette to plead on behalf of their clients for a better analytical approach from the team, then everyone who was responsible for things reaching that point should have been fired long ago.
If the front office actually had a good approach to analytics and the field staff was ignoring it, the firings should have wiped out the entire coaching staff immediately. This is the first that we have heard of a specific charge like this that I know of, but as mentioned before, this is the first time the people involved don’t have to be nice to one another publicly.
That pitchers who have been here with the Orioles have then gone on to succeed elsewhere is not in doubt. The question left to be resolved is whether there was something that the Orioles were doing, or not doing, that led to the pitchers Duquette named not performing as well here as they had done elsewhere.
Wade Miley presents the most extreme and absurd example. You can’t fail much harder than Miley did in Baltimore and still have a big league job. In 43 starts across his two seasons here, Miley posted a 5.75 ERA, averaging fewer than five innings per game started. That included a 2017 season where he led all MLB starting pitchers in WHIP. At the most basic thing a pitcher is supposed to do - keep runners off base - Miley was the number one worst pitcher in the game.
Quote:
This is not the only instance of hearing about a former Oriole changing something small and enjoying greater success elsewhere. Kevin Gausman shifted his position on the rubber after being traded to Atlanta and he pitched better there, at least until the postseason. It seems so small to have made such a huge difference, which doesn’t mean it can’t have made the difference.
Again, I both don't particularly care who they hire and would be completely happy with Showalter but it sure seems like a valid concern that he will have to explain.
DMM... to me those quotes imply that Duquette hired a lousy staff that Buck was interested in listening too. Not that he doesn't believe in analytics. None of those pitchers listed suddenly became superstars immediately upon leaving the Orioles/Buck.
DMM... to me those quotes imply that Duquette hired a lousy staff that Buck was interested in listening too. Not that he doesn't believe in analytics. None of those pitchers listed suddenly became superstars immediately upon leaving the Orioles/Buck.
So Connolly noting Buck will have to show he's willing to become "modern" or he'll have trouble finding a job don't hold any water for you? An actual beat writer who praised Buck overall? I find that strange to be honest.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
the analytics staff with the Mets will 100% be "bean counters who never played the game". That's just the way it goes. Ben Zauzmer is as "bean counter who never played the game" as it gets...
"The answer is yes, but their partnership had nothing to do with baseball. Turner and Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers director of athletic development and performance science, recruited Ben to help them with their fantasy football draft. Turner and McDaniel wanted to use Zauzmer as their secret weapon to beat Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers GM from 2015-2018 and now the President of Baseball Ops for the Giants, in their league."
In addition to baseball, Zauzmer is the author of a book, “Oscarmetrics.” The book uses math to predict Oscar winners. Here is a profile on the book from the Harvard Alumni page.
In the profile, Zauzmer had this to say about using analytics in baseball, “It is a game of trying to blend the conclusions we get from mathematical sources with non-math information to make the best decisions.”
I'm trying to say is, Connolly covered both Buck and Duquette, grew to know both men, praised Showalter substantially and still came away with the idea that Showalter made claims he was open to analytics because he saw the writing on the wall and was adverse to listening to non-players. I think that's what you call an "educated opinion".
I'm trying to say is, Connolly covered both Buck and Duquette, grew to know both men, praised Showalter substantially and still came away with the idea that Showalter made claims he was open to analytics because he saw the writing on the wall and was adverse to listening to non-players. I think that's what you call an "educated opinion".
Communication and being open to new ways of thinking are both extremely important. But it's hard to get the idea that Showalter is really open when he's saying things like this after last week's wild 10-7 win over the Braves in 15 innings:
Showalter on how to explain quiet game getting crazy: “Well, the launch angles ... No, that’s baseball. That’s why you don’t play it on a computer and it’s not purely analytical. That’s why people come, because things happen that aren’t supposed to happen on paper. And there’s three outs in an inning and everybody gets their turn. You can’t hand the ball to your best shooter or your best running back. You have to wait your turn in the batting order. It’s such a team game and there’s just so much ...
No one said anything to Showalter about launch angles. It's also like it's become his job to destroy straw men at arbitrary times.
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
“I can’t tell you how few people will score on that ball,” Showalter said, “and that’s a baseball player, that’s a lead, that’s a secondary lead, that’s anticipation of the swing through the zone. He’s a third base coach’s dream. In fact, we’re going to show it in the next advance meeting.
“So where does that show up in evaluation or analytics? His anticipation, his baseball player skills. That is a really hard ball to score on.
There are, in fact, baserunning metrics that take into account the ability to get a great read and take an extra base. Advanced analytical departments in organizations can do even better than what is publicly available for identifying how well a player performs on the basepaths. Statcast can also be used to show leads, secondary leads, and how baserunners respond to a ball in flight. But OK, sure, no single statistic is completely perfect or tells the whole story.
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
No. That's not what the job of analytics are. You don't go with your gut and hope the numbers back them up, you receive the data and use the data to form your opinion. It's not a "back up plan" it's supposed to be used to help put you in best position to win.
The main concerns about Showalter, 65, are that he’s too old and won’t adapt to new-age analytics. That could be true. But it’s impossible to know, as the Orioles didn’t even have an analytics department when he was there (they had a singular analyst and no international scouting presence). The Mets have made an effort to build up their analytics and information department to one that’s as robust as nearly any in baseball.
some of her other quotes from this article for those not subscribed:
Quote:
As a beat writer who covered that team closely during that stretch, I can say the most obvious difference with the Orioles was the culture. Showalter added an instant air of accountability, demanding that the team played hard and people were held to high standards. More than once, players who tried to shirk the media were instead led into Showalter’s office, where he made them face the music. Players spoke about how, win or lose, they knew they weren’t going to get outmaneuvered. Showalter would routinely quiz guys in the dugout about in-game decisions or ask reporters in his office for their thoughts. Preparation isn’t just a part of the job. It’s an obsession.
quotes like that in combination with the FG interview you posted all lead towards thinking this isn't someone set in his ways who just ignores data out of hand.
Quote:
But can the Mets afford to gamble on another new manager after whiffing on back-to-back tries? Can they gamble on how Ausmus will handle New York’s throng of media, the first long losing streak and the columns calling for his job? Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever.
I think that last sentence is similar to what your conveying which I think is fair - any manager needs to prove they are able to keep up with new components of the job.
I just think that's different then presenting something from his past as evidence that he's been averse to that. As she notes, if the orioles barely had an analytics team how is it at all possible to understand how Buck utilizes analytics? Ghiroli: Buck Showalter should be the New York Mets’ next manager - ( New Window )
is nearly word for word what Connolly was suggesting (and what I think is fair)
"Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that [bv]will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics[/b]. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever."
I don't care about his age AT ALL, he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave. In that way Geren (who I don't care for) has "proven" he can do it, because the Dodgers are the epitome of the modern franchise. He will be the face of the team, taking the brunt of the media etc for "his" decisions, when often times they will be formulated by others.
you posted is a fair assessment. I'm just saying those other quotes imply that Duquette did a poor job hiring the analytics dept. Not that Buck wasn't interested in it.
Connolly said he's not sure if Buck was smart enough to read the room and BS or if he was sincere.
I choose to believe Buck was sincere and Duquette was poor at his job.
That said there's only one way to find out which one of those things is correct. Talk to him and find out.
I'm leaning Buck because he's proven he can manage here and he's a winner. But he may be a man out of time if the Mets grand design is running baseball through the numbers team. You can't have two half-measures; a big analytics team and a manager that plays lip service to the entire concept. It won't work.
I don't mind having a manger who is not all in on analytics
Analytics are important and have their place. But Zack Scott and Quakenbaum went full bore on analytics and it was a disaster.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
Quattlebaum was a minor league hire forced into a role he wasn't equipped for. He was a scapegoat (and has since been reassigned). The Mets have made over 30 hires to the analytics department (and have 5+ job openings up on fangraphs), they aren't going to hire a manager who wants to "do his own thing". This team/organization is going to be built from the analytics side up. That much is clear.
SF Giants have 16 coaches on staff. Why? Because they have both "regular" roles like pitching coach and then somebody like Brian Bannister as "director of pitching" here is his linked in (in part)
They don't have 1 or even 2 hitting coaches, they have...a hitting coach, an assistant hitting coach AND a director hitting.
"While the Giants’ coaches are fluent in analytics and new-age ways of thinking, they take a tailor-made approach to each player, maintaining open lines of communication to ensure that they’re putting everyone in the best position to succeed.
“We have to give a lot of credit to our staff in terms of the preparation and the way that they make you feel before you go into that at-bat,” outfielder Mike Yastrzemski said. “The hitting coaches give you every detail of information that they know that you need. We talked about analytics earlier, but bringing in the human aspect [is something] they have done so well. Letting us let them know what we like to know. They got to the point where they don't even need to ask us what information we want. They already know it ahead of time.”
This is where the game is and where it's headed. Their manager (Gabe Kapler) was an innovator in improving player diets etc etc. These "new age" franchises, Rays, Giants, Dodgers etc are where the game is. Even AA said his time with the Dodgers opened his eyes to how behind he was in analytics.
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
“It was eye-opening for me,” Anthopoulos said of the Dodgers’ use of analytics and as much data as available, boiled down for players to consume if they so chose. “Look, it’s not a panacea for anything. You still need great players and obviously Los Angeles has great players and great acquisitions. Most of all, this stuff, it’s up to the players. Chris Taylor made a lot of great changes in L.A.; he made those changes. He wanted to do that, he had a willingness to do it.”
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
I think it's safe to suggest somebody like Don Kelly (who just retired) in 2017 is likely more in tune with the modern push towards analytics than Buck Showalter. So those sorts of questions are less relevant. Dusty Baker flat out noted Espada would "help" him with understanding some of the data coming from the FO/analytics side, I'd guess very little of Espada's interview would be about his ability to do this.
guy like Espada will face other questions/concerns. Analytics is likely not going to be one of them. That's his forte.
"“Joey asks a lot of questions,” said the Phillies bench coach Rob Thomson, who held that role with the Yankees when Espada was the third-base coach. “When he first started with us, what he didn’t know or didn’t realize, he asked the questions, and he figured it out. The true beauty of this job is to be able to balance the analytics with what you’re teaching and how it applies to that player, this team, this situation.”
And Espada was able to produce results internally. Defensive overshifting in the infield is now common throughout the majors, but that wasn’t the case as recently as four years ago. The Yankees, in particular, had seen mixed results.
In early 2016, Girardi went so far as to say he would recommend banning the use of the shift (while conceding he would use it as long as it remained legal). As infield coach, however, Espada not only advocated the shift but also worked with the analytics team to help improve its algorithms and then communicate the plan to the players."
my point is i dont think we need to have a fear of any of these candidates not being open to working with the Ben Zauzmers of the world. I think there is a very very small minority throughout the entire game who don't get that anymore, and anyone still in that group is nowhere near an invitation to interview for this job.
Knows how true it is (and the Mets can easily find this out) but if Scherzer isn’t advocating for his ex-manager and instead Showalter, I keep coming back to that being pretty damning (Ausmus).
it's a Buck interview with Costas from 2015 (someone just resurfaced on twitter). This is where FG grabbed a lot of the quotes from yesterday's article. MLB: Buck Showalter A Life in Baseball - ( New Window )
Is a very smart, well spoken guy who has been a “winner” (I only use quotes because he hasn’t won a WS) I’d be completely on board if they hired him. I’m actually least familiar (even after reading up ) on Quatraro, so I have the least to go on with him (though I do trust most thing Rays). Assuming Bochy is peripheral then my top 2 choices would be Buck and then Espada but all of the guys named have their strengths
he's a guy who the more you see the more you like. I think a unique quality he has that may bond him to Cohen is that you know what his barometer for success is. It's championship or bust. That's his only measure of success.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
16s
Buck Showalter is doing his Zoom managerial interviews with the #Mets today. The plan is to take what is currently six publicly known candidates who will all do the Zoom and whittle it down to 2-3 for face-to-face next week and potentially a decision.
unless he shows up to his interview piss mad or something.
obviously if Bochy is interested that's also enormously compelling but there is 1 key difference between the 2 (which is also the reason why I would guess Bochy isn't realistic) - Bochy's legacy is in tact. He's won his 3 championships and has no doubters. He may or may not want the Mets but he definitely doesn't need them. Is it really worth it to him to give up his ride into the sunset for a job that's 1 or 2 injuries away from a pain cave?
On the other hand the Mets may be Buck's last/only shot to get the 1 thing that's eluded him. there is no question that on day 1 he's probably more desperate for a ring than anyone else in the org - including Cohen.
also if you are cohen, wouldn't you need a really good reason to choose anyone else over a guy who is 4/4 quickly turning around teams he's managed? i dont think this is a search that needs to be overcomplicated.
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
unrelated but what exactly happened in Cromie's 2 meetings with Cohen where he DIDN'T get the job. I'd be pretty embarrassed to meet be picked by Sandy and Co. get 2 meetings with the owner (possibly zoom) and then not get the job. More out of curiosity than anything else.
-Puma claims Ausmus is viewed as a poor tactician and questions regarding how he would handle the NY media. Massive pass for me. In fact, I'm taking Geren over Ausmus.
1. Showalter 2. Espada, 3. Quatraro or Kelly (tie), 5. Geren and then Ausmus for me.
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
Then Showalter is going to have to accept/want at least one coach on the staff that serves this role. Espada does this for Dusty (for example), the Rays actually just pulled down a member of their FO to now search on the coaching staff (zero coaching experience) to serve this very role.
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
Is that true? You think if players don't buy into analytics they're less likely to perform when placed in a role that analytics suggest is their best chance at success?
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
that's as good of a theory as any. The players liked Chili, so it stands to reason that they may have been similarly rubbed the wrong way by Scotts approach even before he shitcanned Chili and called the players out in the press conference.
don't buy that "excuse". Davis was notably "anti" analytics in his teachings in regard to hitting and they were awful to open the year (and no better with Q, who also wasn't an "analytics" guy, he was simply a teacher of launch angle (which every team is now "into"). I think there is a major level of "lumping in" going on here.
-Lindor started HORRENDOUSLY but his last 100 or so games were in line with his career numbers.
-McCann's numbers are completely in line with his career numbers (career 84 wRC+, 2021 80)
-In regard to Conforto he didn't seem capable of adjusting to what teams were doing to him. 2020 he saw the shift something like 48%, in 2021 it was closer to 75. Playing for a megadeal, likely had him less interested in opposite way singles. He walked nearly identically towards his career mark and his k's were actually down. There was nothing in his numbers to suggest anything but under performance, not a shift in what he was trying to do.
-McNeil also had near identical walk/bb rates to his career marks, his BABIP however was a whopping 55 points below his career WORST, there is nothing in "analytics" that causes you to go from an extremely "lucky" BABIP hitter to below average (especially when you're not walking or striking out more).
Analytics have suddenly become something of a "dirty word" to some but there is no real evidence the Mets hitters were hurt by them at all. An old school hitting coach and a manager who most of these guys hit well for in 2020...
unrelated but what exactly happened in Cromie's 2 meetings with Cohen where he DIDN'T get the job. I'd be pretty embarrassed to meet be picked by Sandy and Co. get 2 meetings with the owner (possibly zoom) and then not get the job. More out of curiosity than anything else.
The same thing happened with Scott too. I don't think any of us know for sure, but it does seem like Sandy was more eager to get someone else into the baseball opps role than Cohen was.
I'm a lot happier with Eppler than either of those 2 so good job Steve I guess?
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
that's as good of a theory as any. The players liked Chili, so it stands to reason that they may have been similarly rubbed the wrong way by Scotts approach even before he shitcanned Chili and called the players out in the press conference.
Numbers don't bear this out in any way. See below.
was showing signs of this in 2020, it was mostly ignored because he had a HUGE September which people believed to be "McNeil is finally healthy". 2020 his slash line was .269/.336/.344 over his first 28 games
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
Dan you a misunderstanding Vanzetti's point I think (or i am)
I think he's saying there was just conflict/lack of trust/poor communication between the players and FO - specifically when it came to hitting.
not that the players were right and FO was wrong. but rather that the FO's execution didn't work because the players didn't buy in.
I'd add to that argument that I think there was clearly conflict and a lack of being on the same page from a hitting standpoint. If they were that misaligned with chili they shouldn't have brought him back in the first place. Whether chili was right or wrong the players liked him so firing him may have created a rift.
contrast what happened with the hitting coach and how well discarcina (who players spoke highly of) was seemingly able to take advantage of defensive analytics (to great effect). though perhaps defensive analytics are less of a hot button for players where hitting is id imagine very personal?
was showing signs of this in 2020, it was mostly ignored because he had a HUGE September which people believed to be "McNeil is finally healthy". 2020 his slash line was .269/.336/.344 over his first 28 games
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
Dan if you go back in mcneils profile he has never made a lot of hard contact (HH rate, exit velo, pretty much always under league average). look at his spray charts and you will see this past year he went opposite field way more than he did previously. I posted about it (i think) somewhere in the scherzer thread with pics will try to find that.
Rojas was viewed as one of the most forward thinking managers when it came to his analytic approach. He certainly bought in. Hitters who did well in 2020, ignored their 2020 success (for the entire season, even post Chili Davis) to their own detriment? How does that really make sense? The offense didn't take off once "old school Chili" was let go. So both approaches failed. Jeff McNeil not hitting the ball as hard as he did in 2018-2019 is a Jeff McNeil issue. McCann hitting near his career marks shouldn't be a surprise, when they are his career marks etc etc.
was showing signs of this in 2020, it was mostly ignored because he had a HUGE September which people believed to be "McNeil is finally healthy". 2020 his slash line was .269/.336/.344 over his first 28 games
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
Dan if you go back in mcneils profile he has never made a lot of hard contact (HH rate, exit velo, pretty much always under league average). look at his spray charts and you will see this past year he went opposite field way more than he did previously. I posted about it (i think) somewhere in the scherzer thread with pics will try to find that.
That's false. His ISO was .214 his "big" 2019 season, it has been .142 and .109 since then.
From Paul Sporer
"This is a relative “Off the Radar” pick because obviously McNeil isn’t completely forgotten, but he certainly won’t be a Top 100 pick again. He was given a pass for his power outage in 2020 (-72 pts of ISO from 2019 to .142) likely due to his .998 OPS and 4 HR September after a .681 OPS and 0 HR over his first 28 games."
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
That's false. His ISO was .214 his "big" 2019 season, it has been .142 and .109 since then.
From Paul Sporer
"This is a relative “Off the Radar” pick because obviously McNeil isn’t completely forgotten, but he certainly won’t be a Top 100 pick again. He was given a pass for his power outage in 2020 (-72 pts of ISO from 2019 to .142) likely due to his .998 OPS and 4 HR September after a .681 OPS and 0 HR over his first 28 games."
look at the statcast data I just posted from 2019:
avg. exit velocity 41st percentile
hard hit rate 35th percentile
barrel percentage 21st percentile
not quite what you would expect from a guy who hit .318.
2019 Jeff McNeil had an expected slug of .458, in 2021 it was .385, 2020 .405. He's not hitting the ball as hard as he did in 2019. Maybe 2019 was a mirage but the extremely low BABIP suggests something was physically wrong.
2019 Jeff McNeil pulled his balls in play 44.5% of the time, 2021? 35% (career low), line drive%? Again, a career low 22.8%, 2019 26.6
it's your belief that McNeil posted career lows nearly across the board because he wasn't buying into Chili Davis AND Quattlebaum (2 unrelated approaches) were teaching AND his first 30 games in 2020 (with similar numbers aka power outage) were all related to this? Does that really make a lot of sense to you?
also the biggest Sandy fan on this site, if he felt the players were having trouble understanding this data (again, an odd argument when Davis was the hitting coach in 2020 albeit via zoom, when many of these guys had career or close to it years) AND unable to to improve under Quattlebaum... why didn't Alderson do something about it?
79 games .822 OPS, Lindor career OPS... .821, heck his final 104 games his OPS was .776. Lindor had a truly AWFUL start AND expectations of him as an offensive player were too high.
Smith was horrendous in 2021. He had just an 86 wRC+ and 11 HR in 493 PA coming off a pair of 177 AB gems (134 wRC+ in 2019, 166 in 2020) and I don’t really have any answers for why he was so poor. He pulled the ball a lot less (-7 pts to 37%), but that doesn’t come close to explaining the downfall. His HR/FB plummeting from 22% to 9% certainly stings, but again, it only explains some of it.
The simple fact is that I’m willing to bet on his .236 ISO from 2017-20 over the .119 from 2021 and his bargain bin price gives the pick built-in protection in case he flops again as you won’t be inclined to hang on as long as we did this past season.
"Back then, teams weren't concerned with launch angles, spray charts or defensive shifts -- elements of today's game that have become Rojas' bread and butter. As a quality control coach, he was a uniformed liaison between the Mets' analytics staff and the coaching staff. It was his job to help coaches and players -- in his case, hitters -- digest the information.
"He does a great job of filtering through some of the analytical numbers and stuff like that to make them a little more usable," former Mets manager Mickey Callaway said at the time.
So this narrative doesn't really hold up to scrutiny. Many of these guys (Conforto, McNeil, Dom etc) had strong 2020's with Rojas the manager and still here to communicate the data.
Dan you are getting off on one of your multi post crusades
that are generally difficult to track. So here's some answers for you that I think hit on most of the questions i've seen to this point to keep things organized.
1. i have no idea whether chili or the analytics group was right or wrong. Nobody knows that for sure because they cant just redo 2021 and test different things to figure out who was right and wrong.
2. i think the 2021 team was not on the same page and there was internal conflict. chili got fired and clearly didn't like scott. again don't know who was right or wrong but i think that kind of conflict is bad for all involved.
3. re: mcneil I don't think his talent disappeared in 2021.
a) His bat control was still elite (whiff rate, k rate both better than 2019).
b) his average exit velo was similar to 2019 as well (88.8 vs. 88.1).
c) K rate and walk rate also almost identical.
his BABIP dropped and his spray charts show he pulled the ball a lot less. it stands to reason there may have been an approach change that didn't work. Again no idea who to blame for that. Using the whole field was more of a Chili concept btw and it looks like McNeil did that more in 2020 as well. or it could have just been a very bad luck (injury impacted) year.
4. Re: Sandy, guilty as charged that I'm a fan, however if there's 1 area i've long disagreed it's his lean towards 3 outcomes vs. contact players with bat control. I'm very happy Eppler seems to be a little more balance and actually that was 1 of the few positive things BVW did as well.
79 games .822 OPS, Lindor career OPS... .821, heck his final 104 games his OPS was .776. Lindor had a truly AWFUL start AND expectations of him as an offensive player were too high.
Recall good article read on Lindor that I will look for talking about 2021 not as a slump but a 3 year slide.
Not a good year but he did hit .283 hitter with runners in scoring position last season. And over the final month, had a .895 OPS, with nine home runs and 25 RBI. Will take a lot of this.
regard to McNeil Chili Davis was fired on 5/4, Jeff McNeil over his final 97 games had a .673 OPS. Chili Davis had such a negative impact on Jeff McNeil that he was unable to overcome his teachings over the final "100" games? Does that really pass the sniff test for you? Sure doesn't for me.
79 games .822 OPS, Lindor career OPS... .821, heck his final 104 games his OPS was .776. Lindor had a truly AWFUL start AND expectations of him as an offensive player were too high.
Recall good article read on Lindor that I will look for talking about 2021 not as a slump but a 3 year slide.
Not a good year but he did hit .283 hitter with runners in scoring position last season. And over the final month, had a .895 OPS, with nine home runs and 25 RBI. Will take a lot of this.
What is his new norm?
Lindor's 2018 looks like an outlier so of course there will be a "3 year slide" if you don't accept that as one. His wRC+ in 2018 was 132, he's surpassed 120 wRC+ on only 1 other occasion (his rookie season).
His wRC+ in 2019 was 118... his wRC+ second half of 2021? 118. His 2020 was a down year and he opened his career with the Mets with a horrendous first 150 ab's (.589 OPS). So this "3 year slide" stuff only exists if you think his 2018 is who he is, which likely isn't the case (a near 8 fWAR player). His 2018 would have led all full-time position players in fWAR by near 1 full win. That's how ridiculous his 2018 season was.
says hire Showalter (I'll say this, it's kinda weird how it seems to be a consensus in the media, I said Buck is my first choice just strange no real support for the other candidates, Bochy in particular... who looks like he's not even being considered would seemingly be a name to push for) Link - ( New Window )
If @RaysBaseball can do this (as well as hire a coach specifically to help explain/synthesize data) @mets should be all about flexing their muscle when it comes to the 2022 coaching staff Link - ( New Window )
Also interviewing today. View is he’s a very smart guy , highly thought of but lost the clubhouse in Oakland. Maybe he’s learned from his mistakes with the Dodgers?
He's not my first choice but let's not forget both Billy Beane and now Andrew Friedman thought highly enough of Bob Geren to employ him long-term. He's a legitimate candidate
Had the Phillies not recently hired him, I think Bobby Dickerson would have been a near lock to join Buck Showalter's staff (should he get the Mets job). One of Showalter's closest confidants
John Russell served as Buck Showalter's bench coach for 7 seasons with the Orioles and has previous managerial experience, assumption is they would pair him with somebody analytically inclined but a name to watch
the thing i come back to is buck track record turning teams around
the Yankees had a lost decade before Buck. he won 88 games year 2, had them in first year 3 at the time the players went on the strike, and in the ALDS year 4 after the strike. Year 5 they won the WS that began the dynasty (with Torre, and the foundation Buck helped develop).
the Diamondbacks were an expansion team and he won 100 games and a division in year 2. Got fired year 3 with an 85-77 record, and they win the WS in year 4.
the Rangers won 71, 73, 72 games the years before he got there. it was prime A-Rod. In Buck year 2 they trade A-Rod and go on to win 89 games. Obviously didn't keep that momentum going for whatever reason but he left them a better club than when he got there.
the Orioles hadn't made the playoffs for almost 15 years before him. Made it 3x with him and had 5 straight non-losing years. In his last year they only won 47 games but in the 2 full years since they had just 52 and 54 wins. Those years after 6 straight with 75 wins or more.
it's a lot like Dusty, all he does is win. Also a lot like Houston when they hired Dusty, this org could use a wide respected face.
One final name to note as a potential member of Buck Showalter's staff is ex-Met Wayne Kirby. Kirby served as Orioles 1b coach for all 8 seasons Buck managed there, and has served as an MLB 1b coach each of the last 10 seasons
the thing i come back to is buck track record turning teams around
the Yankees had a lost decade before Buck. he won 88 games year 2, had them in first year 3 at the time the players went on the strike, and in the ALDS year 4 after the strike. Year 5 they won the WS that began the dynasty (with Torre, and the foundation Buck helped develop).
the Diamondbacks were an expansion team and he won 100 games and a division in year 2. Got fired year 3 with an 85-77 record, and they win the WS in year 4.
the Rangers won 71, 73, 72 games the years before he got there. it was prime A-Rod. In Buck year 2 they trade A-Rod and go on to win 89 games. Obviously didn't keep that momentum going for whatever reason but he left them a better club than when he got there.
the Orioles hadn't made the playoffs for almost 15 years before him. Made it 3x with him and had 5 straight non-losing years. In his last year they only won 47 games but in the 2 full years since they had just 52 and 54 wins. Those years after 6 straight with 75 wins or more.
it's a lot like Dusty, all he does is win. Also a lot like Houston when they hired Dusty, this org could use a wide respected face.
against Showalter but Dusty Baker is going to the HOF.
24 big league seasons 85+ wins 15! Times including 7 in a row at one point, 8 1st place finishes, 7 2nd place finishes Showalter 20 seasons 85+ wins 8 times, 2 1st place finishes, 4 2nd place finishes.
Baker a truly incredible career, sad he's never won a WS.
Showalter was in front of Eppler again on Wednesday, part of a multi-interview process that the Mets have devised for all the candidates that also includes Zoom sessions with player development, amateur scouting and sports sciences and lasts about five hours. The Mets hope to pare a group of six publicly known candidates down to two or three and conduct face-to-face interviews in New York next week that will include their demanding owner, Steve Cohen.
Eppler believes strongly in analytics and he is going to want to know his manager is not just going to give a cursory look at what is presented or distance himself from that group. He will want to know that Showalter, 66 in May, will continue to relate to today’s players; though that La Russa’s White Sox made the playoffs and Snitker’s Braves beat Baker’s Astros in the World Series is quite an endorsement that the elder set can still do this job at a high level. Link - ( New Window )
but after the last year, I'm more hopeful the Mets do thorough background checks on everyone than the interview process which I trust will be done professionally.
Stability means something, and getting the staff in place and the player comfortable matters. So do a thorough check so we don't have to see Showalter fired after 6 months for an email he sent in 2004.
@mets lose RHP Tommy Wilson (son of Biff Tannen) to @Mariners
Noooooo! Not Son of Biff! Any scouting reports on the guys we selected other than solid K/9 and actually not terrible control versus what you usually find on younger age related to league arms with those K/9 totals in Minor League Rule 5. Some players with lousy ML experience got drafted too.
@mets lose RHP Tommy Wilson (son of Biff Tannen) to @Mariners
Noooooo! Not Son of Biff! Any scouting reports on the guys we selected other than solid K/9 and actually not terrible control versus what you usually find on younger age related to league arms with those K/9 totals in Minor League Rule 5. Some players with lousy ML experience got drafted too.
Extremely limited info on both. Ocampo was 92-93 in a 2019 scouting report and reportedly has a plus slider, Valverde command issues but also a funky slider that generated k's. Nothing one seems particularly "exciting" on paper stuff wise but they missed bats so... who knows? Hadn't seen either one on any lists of guys who could be interesting and I googled for a while and didn't find really much mention of either guy so.. we'll see
One final name to note as a potential member of Buck Showalter's staff is ex-Met Wayne Kirby. Kirby served as Orioles 1b coach for all 8 seasons Buck managed there, and has served as an MLB 1b coach each of the last 10 seasons
Looks like Ken Rosenthal listens to me (I'm kidding) but funny timing
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
2m
Former Padres and Orioles coach Wayne Kirby was unable to strike deal with Angels on coaching position, sources tell @TheAthletic
. Could be candidate to reunite with Buck Showalter if Showalter gets Mets’ job. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner only current member of Mets’ staff.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Brian Butterfield, dismissed as Angels third base coach at the end of last season, would be another possibility to join a Showalter staff with the Mets. Was one of Showalter’s coaches with both the Yankees and Diamondbacks.
Worth noting that Butterfield was in fact hired by Billy Eppler, so if the idea is to give Buck SOME of his own guys, this would seemingly be an ideal spot to do so
I hope @mets
think long and hard about their 3b coach hire. DiSarcina seemed overly cautious to a fault and it's a spot where a strong hire can steal you a few runs (and wins). @mets
finished 27/30 in baserunning (not all of that was lack team speed)
so that would mean Ausmus yesterday, Espada either yesterday or earlier, Showalter and possibly Quatraro today. Geren/Kelly potentially later this week?
Process moving along seems like there should be a hire by next week.
so that would mean Ausmus yesterday, Espada either yesterday or earlier, Showalter and possibly Quatraro today. Geren/Kelly potentially later this week?
Process moving along seems like there should be a hire by next week.
Barring an eventual lefty swing change, Vera looks more like a good utility man or low-end regular, the kind of everyday shortstop who hits near the bottom of the lineup, and he’s FV’d such that we’re projecting that outcome. He has both the athleticism and, based on opinions from outside the org, the baseball aptitude to do that. Because the below-average plate discipline also creates bust risk here, we’re more inclined to take a “believe it when we see it” approach regarding the swing change rather than an anticipatory one.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
8m
Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviewed for the Mets manager opening earlier this week, according to a source. Buck Showalter and Bob Geren went today. Brad Ausmus and Matt Quatraro are believed to have interviewed. First round will possibly wrap up Thursday with Don Kelly.
Still seems hard to believe by 7 PM they had conducted 10 hours of interviewing but it looks like one to go with Showalter the favorite.
So only Don Kelly remains? PS this 5-hour interview process doesn't add up...
Even if it were "only" Showalter/Espada today, they spent 10hours interviewing them today? No break? And Sherman said Geren also was today
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
#Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren also is interviewing for the #Mets managerial opening today.
Not enough hours in a day for the Mets to have spent 15 hours interviewing 3 candidates by 7 PM...
They’re rotating people, ie one hour with this guy, one with another group etc. could interview four candidates in six actual hours - if that makes sense.
But mostly because I think he’d bring it in the most qualified surrounding staff. This would allow the younger guys to learn from more tours who think the game different,y. But you e got to admit, it is one impressive list of candidates
like a weird way to do it but whatever works. Don't really see the need to cram that all into x days when there is nothing baseball going on but whatever works. Sure seems like it'll be Showalter, Geren is probably the wild card.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Thought Don Kelly would be an interesting candidate for #Mets job. Well-regarded in industry. Was #Tigers teammates with Scherzer from 2010-14. Heard they were close. Their manager in ’14 … Brad Aumus, who is still in mix for NYM job.
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
·
3m
If Buck Showalter is hired as the Mets' manager -- and within the industry, he is viewed as the heavy favorite -- it'll be interesting to see if ex-Pirate coach Joey Cora emerges as a candidate for Showalter's staff.
don't personally find Ausmus to be that impressive. If the idea is that he got a raw deal? Sure but he's finished under .500 3/5 seasons, and if you read hiis interview with theathletic it could put you to sleep. He doesn't strike me as dynamic or outstanding. You don't hear ex-players and writers raving about him and his views on bullpen usage are antiquated aka "this guy pitches the 6th" "this guy is our 7th inning guy".
But mostly because I think he’d bring it in the most qualified surrounding staff. This would allow the younger guys to learn from more tours who think the game different,y. But you e got to admit, it is one impressive list of candidates
Very solid group. I think I’ve talked myself into Buck or bust but I can see a case for any of them. Good to see u back sheck. Stick around, like a backup catcher grinding out year 8.
about the opposite of what bullpen management is in 2021
“No, for me, Albie, who had a great year, his best place is in the sixth or seventh inning,” Ausmus said. “There’s really only one time we might have used him, in Game 2, and we had Sanchie.”
Tigers manager Brad Ausmus always goes to the mat for his players. Even when doing so means being generous with the benefit of doubt, suspending some sense of belief or inviting the brunt of criticism on himself.
Castellanos’ miscue is hardly something to be treated in isolation. The Tigers have been a poor baserunning team overall. In fact, the club’s ineptitude on the base paths may be the biggest source of frustration, if it weren’t for the beleaguered bullpen claiming that dubious honor. In the past three seasons combined, the Tigers rank dead-last in BsR, a base-running metric that takes into account “stolen bases, caught stealing and other base running plays” according to FanGraphs. During that span from 2015-17, the Tigers BsR rating was -62.1, or 62.1 runs below average. This season, the Tigers have made 42 outs on the bases, tied for sixth-highest in the league, and five above league-average, according to Baseball Reference. There are only seven teams that rank lower in extra-bases taken percentage.
Some of that, of course, is due to a team’s personnel and lack of speed. But some of that is a result of mental errors.
“I don’t think we make too many mistakes. I think sometimes we’re a little overaggressive, sometime our speed doesn’t, you know, make up for some of the aggressiveness,” veteran outfielder Justin Upton said.
interview. Sounds like a nice, extremely boring man and based on other articles, something of a doormat. Puma said he's viewed as a poor tactician in todays paper as well Link - ( New Window )
Strengths: The former catcher certainly has a grasp of how to handle a pitching staff and is said to have a good relationship with Max Scherzer, who pitched for the Tigers for one season with Ausmus as the manager. Ausmus led the Tigers to the postseason that year (2014) and spent three additional seasons on the job before managing the Angels in 2019.
Weaknesses: Ausmus, 52, isn’t regarded as a strong tactician and there are questions how he would handle the New York spotlight and demands that come with serving as the voice for the team. After limited success with the Tigers and Angels he would be a tough sell to the fan base.
(Worth noting Scherzer has endorsed Showalter and not his ex-Manager).
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
20s
A person with knowledge of the Showalter interview today with Mets officials: "They were pretty impressed with Buck today. It went really well.
any candidate without a track record is a leap of faith
could be alex cora could be mickey callaway. so pretty much all of them other than Buck we can read the good stuff people write but there's just no way to know.
maybe ausmus is above that since he's managed before. if you squint he's girardi-esque and being mentored by leyland isn't nothing. but again sitting next to francona didn't help callaway.
my mystery candidate guess is Farrell. I think he was mentioned earlier in the lists of names and he kind of fits what they seem to be looking for. Right age, won a WS, managed in big city, etc.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
20s
A person with knowledge of the Showalter interview today with Mets officials: "They were pretty impressed with Buck today. It went really well.
this offseason gonna double break the nightengale curse.
One name I could 100% see @Mets bringing on as part of the FO is ex-Mets intern Jonathan Strangio. Strangio is from Long Island and previously served as one of Billy Eppler's assistant GM's with @Angels
Miggy, Kinsler, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Hunter, Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson
Swept first round... by Showalter's Orioles no less a mediocre roster that somehow won 96 games
Seems like one has to bend over backwards to really vouch for Ausmus as the best hire Link - ( New Window )
Ausmus is smart. He went to Dartmouth.
He was also a catcher and there is the whole theory that catchers make the best mangers because they are the most familiar with pitching.
He has experience and is not adverse to analytics.
He has always seemed on paper like a guy who was going to be a great manger. That's why he was hired twice.
However, he just seems to lack something. Maybe its leadership or personality. And as you have pointed out the fact that Scherzer wants Buck speaks volumes.
Buck really seems like the better choice, especially for a team like the Mets who have committed to winning now.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
14s
The #Mets’s sixth and expected to be final first-round interview for their managing position is with #Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, The Post has learned.
Prior to joining the Dodgers organization in 2015, McCullough worked in the Toronto Blue Jays organization from 2006–2014, serving as the manager of the GCL Blue Jays (2006–2007), Class-A Lansing Lugnuts (2008–2009), Advanced-A Dunedin Blue Jays (2010–2011) and Class-A Vancouver Canadians (2012–2013). He posted a combined record of 629–559 during his managerial career in the Blue Jays’ organization.
No inside information, but I semi-wonder if McCullough's interview, might (in part) be to see if he might be a good option to serve as Buck's bench coach. He does have 8 years experience as a manager and likely isn't quite ready to be considered a serious candidate
wonder if this is zauzmer pick for bench coach who speaks analytics
No inside information, but I semi-wonder if McCullough's interview, might (in part) be to see if he might be a good option to serve as Buck's bench coach. He does have 8 years experience as a manager and likely isn't quite ready to be considered a serious candidate
Maybe not as "out of the blue" as we think. McCullough was a candidate to replace Bruce Bochy, the job that later went to Gabe Kapler. He must be a pretty impressive guy to have been considered by Zaidi with 0 MLB coaching experience
McCullough, who turned 36 in December, was scooped up by the Toronto Blue Jays and spent the next seven years in the Blue Jays minor league system. Beginning as a hitting instructor with the rookie level Pulaski Blue Jays he proceeded to build a resume in managing positions with the Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, the Lansing Lugnuts in the Midwest League, the A+ Dunedin Blue Jays in the Florida State League and the Vancouver Canadians in the Northwest League. Along the way he was named Manager of the Year in 2011 with the FSL Blue Jays and led the Vancouver Canadians to two consecutive Northwest League Championships. In 2012 he gained his second straight Manager of the Year Award, this time with the Canadians.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
2m
The Mets' first-round managerial interviews appear complete with Dodgers coach Clayton McCullough, as @Joelsherman1
reported. Steve Cohen will become involved in the next round, which might begin as soon as this weekend. He will speak with 2-3 finalists.
Seth Frankoff
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
Per @JeffPassan @mets wanted to sign BOTH Gausman and Scherzer. Sucks they didn't land Gausman but it does suggest they realize they need another "good" SP. One of the Oakland/Reds "6"? Rodon? Somebody else? #Mets
Per @JeffPassan @mets wanted to sign BOTH Gausman and Scherzer. Sucks they didn't land Gausman but it does suggest they realize they need another "good" SP. One of the Oakland/Reds "6"? Rodon? Somebody else? #Mets
it's really too bad Syndergaard bailed early. He'd have been the perfect final piece to the rotation - especially if he agreed to do extended ST for a while so that way he could finish the season without any innings limitations. that would have even opened up a slot to add another depth guy to start the year with a spot for at least a month or two.
Seth Frankoff
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
I wonder if they can lure him with a bench coach spot and a salary bump if they like him a lot but go with 1 of the veterans? bench coach is kind of a promotion and if they go with buck he's obviously older than roberts by a healthy margin. plus a new experience for Clayton.
Seth Frankoff
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
I wonder if they can lure him with a bench coach spot and a salary bump if they like him a lot but go with 1 of the veterans? bench coach is kind of a promotion and if they go with buck he's obviously older than roberts by a healthy margin. plus a new experience for Clayton.
Sounds good but Showalter on more than one occasion mentioned how familiarity is something he really pushes for in his coaching staff. He kept many of his coaches for the entire run in Baltimore (Wayne Kirby all 8 seasons) etc. My guess, is he will want his own bench coach. Good chance he would have picked Dickerson had he not just joined the Phillies.
just in terms of reliability. I think given the age of the rest of the current top 3 and the fact that it's still unknown how effective Walker can be over a full year, they are going to want someone with a track record of 30+ starts.
Matz has done 29+ the last 3 full years and Gausman has done 31+ the last 5 full years, and those are the 2 SP other than Scherzer we know they had committable offers in front of. I could see them rolling the dice on Rodon (+ another depth guy as insurance) if other things don't develop but I think they will first try to find someone more similar in reliability to matz/gausman.
Showalter had John Russell as his BC his final 7 seasons (Willie Randolph year 1), Wayne Kirby all 8 as his 1b coach, Dickerson his last 6 as 3b coach. Kirby and Dickerson had worked with Buck previously. It's of course possible they force Buck to take on xyz (managers usually don't have full say) but bench coach is a pretty major role to push on him.
Showalter had John Russell as his BC his final 7 seasons (Willie Randolph year 1), Wayne Kirby all 8 as his 1b coach, Dickerson his last 6 as 3b coach. Kirby and Dickerson had worked with Buck previously. It's of course possible they force Buck to take on xyz (managers usually don't have full say) but bench coach is a pretty major role to push on him.
I expect the staff will be filled with 80-90% guys he has relationships with and then a handful of others the organization likes (kind of like Hefner - though I wouldn't be shocked if his role changes or something) - and also I wouldn't be surprised if they add new/extra positions sort of like SFG.
suspect Kirby is the 1b coach, Butterfield a good guess at 3b or even BC. As for the FO, the more I read about Jonathan Strangio the more I think he's a big time fit. Long Island guy who worked closely with Eppler with LAA, interned for the Mets, pitched for Harvard.
Potential bench coach for Buck Showalter...Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu managed for 3 seasons and served as Buck's bench coach for 5 seasons in Texas. He is currently available
a very simple way for buck to articulate his openness to analytics
would be to have 1 or 2 spots on his staff that are fresh faces in part chosen by the FO and with input from the analytics team (which is why the zauzmer connect is potentially interesting).
RE: a very simple way for buck to articulate his openness to analytics
would be to have 1 or 2 spots on his staff that are fresh faces in part chosen by the FO and with input from the analytics team (which is why the zauzmer connect is potentially interesting).
Just feels like bench coach would be a major role to "give up" to somebody you have absolutely zero history with. Already pitching coach isn't your pick (nothing against Hefner). I'd be surprised if they went with McCullough unless Buck has him forced upon him.
could see something like the Rays have where they have a coach on staff specifically for that role. Jonathan Erlichman has zero previous coaching experience, never played either and yet he's part of the coaching staff "Process & Analytics Coach"
could see something like the Rays have where they have a coach on staff specifically for that role. Jonathan Erlichman has zero previous coaching experience, never played either and yet he's part of the coaching staff "Process & Analytics Coach"
this is just a guess but it wouldn't shock me if the new staff has 2 or more titles that we've never had before. Hoarding smart people is sort of the new frontier of MLB.
Per @JeffPassan @mets wanted to sign BOTH Gausman and Scherzer. Sucks they didn't land Gausman but it does suggest they realize they need another "good" SP. One of the Oakland/Reds "6"? Rodon? Somebody else? #Mets
it's really too bad Syndergaard bailed early. He'd have been the perfect final piece to the rotation - especially if he agreed to do extended ST for a while so that way he could finish the season without any innings limitations. that would have even opened up a slot to add another depth guy to start the year with a spot for at least a month or two.
+1. This is what I keep thinking also. It would have been such a good situation for everyone.
one of the other benefits of lockout is it gives mets time to restack
their board without the external pressure of free agents looking to sign on their own/other team's timelines or teams making trades on their own timelines. there is no way there was time for Eppler to go through the full market from the time he was hired to the time things started happening.
Now he should have all their analysts cranking to rank their preferences on the entire pitching market whether it's trades or FA:
reliable #2/3 candidates (Manaea, Bassit, Gray, Rodon, etc)
depth players with options (sort of like Trevor Williams/Luchesi)
maybe also browse high end relievers who may only have 1 or 2 years of control left and bigger salaries than their teams prefer. The whole point of having a deep front office is being able to find the next robbie ray, kevin gausman, steven matz to buy low on now before they cash in big in FA.
fun few weeks guys. We know Cohen favors Showalter but
I think he probably heard a lot good things about him from gene michael over a lot of years. he fits with 2 older pitchers trying to get 1 last ring. it's been reported he wanted him 2 years ago over Maddon. I think that's his guy and who he recommends.
Cohen im sure would prefer someone with a track record to someone "learning on his dime" so I think he takes that recommendation - possibly to the point of being his preference.
Sandy no idea and at this point in his career I think he wants to differ to others. He hired Collins, who was obviously most comparable to Buck. He hired Callaway, who was obviously more comparable to any of the inexperienced guys. It's natural to swing to something different when it doesn't work out which in this case would be a more experienced hire, and we know he was interested in Melvin. So I'd guess he go with 1 of the experience candidates but not sure which one.
Britton mailbag, not much particularly interesting but he makes a good
point regarding the CBA negotiations and what would be good for the mets:
Quote:
This leads me to a question nobody asked but I will: What should the Mets want regarding the competitive-balance tax in a new collective bargaining agreement? The basic assumption is that of course a big-market team would prefer a higher CBT threshold and softer penalties for exceeding it. But if Steve Cohen is comfortable consistently paying the penalties as currently structured — and his spending this winter has suggested he’s at least theoretically comfortable with doing that in the short term — doesn’t a system close to the status quo make the Mets more of an outlier? They’d be willing to go over the threshold when very few other teams would. And wouldn’t that be what’s most beneficial to them in the marketplace?
Just a thought.
also this made me lol.
Quote:
As to the question, I was asked earlier this offseason about this front office being much better at preventing leaks than previous ones for the Mets. I responded then as I’ll respond now: I’ve noticed no significant differences.
I think it had to do with Noah's perception that the Mets were not "cool."
All the guys turning down opportunities to interview for the GM position. Combined with their poor finishes the last few years.
Also, one that does not get mentioned: Steve Cohen is the personification of evil on social justice blogs. On Reddit's Wall Street Bets, with well over a million followers, mostly young and social justice oriented, Cohen was consistently bashed during the Gamestop/meme stocks bubble. (Of course, this ignores that the meme stockers were trying to do exactly what Steve Cohen and other hedge fund mangers do. They just were not as good at it.)
I'm not say Thor read something and decided that's it. Rather, it was a general atmosphere about the team and the owner.
That's why I think Eppler was so smart to come in like a hurricane. Sign some quality vets short term as part of the plan to lure the Biggest Fish of them all. Once the Mets signed Scherzer that changed the entire perception.
And I would be willing to bet that Thor regrets having signed with the Angels. It seemed like an incredibly impulsive decision.
Five of the Best Starting Pitchers Available in Free Agency
Scherzer has also said Buck. I think Showalter and Espada (in some order) are 1 and 1A for both Eppler and the players. Sandy wants Geren because of their past relationship and that Sandy/Sandy's son can control him. The question for Cohen will be whether he goes with the vet or the manager that offers the most upside. I think he goes the safe route especially knowing that Buck is probably in the top 2 of everyone versus someone who might be #1 on more lists but lower down on those who value MLB expereince.
be perfectly happy with all 3. I've actually heard Eppler has pushed Espada very hard. Not saying he's not high on Showalter (who is the likely hire) but Eppler according to who I spoke to thinks (and has believed) Espada is a potential "superstar" in terms of managers.
-Former Mets prospect PCA comes in at #13 in a very deep Cubs system with a 45. For comparisons sake pre-2021 Fangraphs had JT Ginn as a 45 and PCA also a 45. When it comes to fangraphs rankings the grade is more important than the actual ranking.
Summary:
Our Technology department delivers all technology solutions used within the organization. Our team is comprised of individuals that are highly proficient in their respective technology platforms, articulate, solution driven, client focused and proactive in building their technology skills. We are seeking an accomplished senior manager to lead the team focused on end-to-end service delivery from solutions design to operations. In this role, you will take on a wide range of responsibilities including establishing and driving the strategic and architectural direction of the team. You will be responsible for team leadership, ensuring that your team members are efficient, happy, and have opportunities to continue to learn and grow their careers.
-Former Mets prospect PCA comes in at #13 in a very deep Cubs system with a 45. For comparisons sake pre-2021 Fangraphs had JT Ginn as a 45 and PCA also a 45. When it comes to fangraphs rankings the grade is more important than the actual ranking.
here's their blurb on him.
Quote:
Crow-Armstrong was one of the first 2020 high schoolers to be identified as a likely first round talent because of how well he performed against older showcase competition and SoCal varsity pitching. He had a rough pre-draft showcase summer, and while he rebounded later in 2019 during Team USA’s trip to Asia, he didn’t have an extended opportunity to do so in ’20 (his draft year) because of the pandemic, though the Mets picked him 19th overall anyway. He missed most of 2021 due to a labrum surgery that cost him all but 11 big league spring training contests and six regular season games. The Cubs still made him the centerpiece of the Javier Báez deal, but PCA hasn’t put on a Cubs affiliate uniform yet, nor did he participate in instructs. The layoff adds to already-present hit tool risk. Crow-Armstrong has a swing geared for low-ball contact and he is very vulnerable to fastballs in the top third of the zone, almost exactly like SoCal high schooler Blake Rutherford has been. The difference between PCA and Rutherford is that the former plays an incredible center field. That’s going to carry Crow-Armstrong’s profile, which, in broad strokes, compares similarly to Jackie Bradley Jr.’s.
I was a big PCA fan when they drafted him because I think there is solid value in the JBJ's of the world. Premium position plus defense is not nothing and generally a safe carrying tool to bet on.
But a major injury and a 2nd lost year in a row added risk and with an ownership willing to spend he's a guy they can (and kind of have) spent to replace. They may have done well to get something for him while his draft pedigree was still fresh. Fair or unfair the deck is a bit stacked against him with such a long layoff pre-debut. I hope he figures it out though, he seemed like a good kid who had the right intangibles.
to be clear, I wasn't couching the PCA #13 ranking, I just see people throw around the rankings and FG's in particular is clear the similarly graded players are essentially a pretty "random" ranking so they basically have #7-#16 as "similar" caliber prospects
John Means is more solid/good than good-good but his durability and years of control make him intriguing, there also is reason to believe there could be "more" there... his health would be a concern Link - ( New Window )
Michael Pineda (as suggested by @TimBritton) would be a fine "depth" arm to add but if he's the 2nd best SP the Mets add this off-season... underwhelming to say the least
Yet another way having a "rich" owner helps.. outbidding teams with higher AAV's for "solid" older guys who haven't made much bank such as....Ryan Tepera Link - ( New Window )
to be clear, I wasn't couching the PCA #13 ranking, I just see people throw around the rankings and FG's in particular is clear the similarly graded players are essentially a pretty "random" ranking so they basically have #7-#16 as "similar" caliber prospects
right and while Logenhagen hasnt updated the NYM org list yet, presumably he again would have put PCA between 6-9th. Last year he was 6th with a 45 grade (same grade as Ginn/Lee who were 7th/8th) with the 5 above him carrying a 45+ (Baty), 50 (Vientos, Allan), or 55 (Mauricio, Alvarez) grades.
i'd think Ramirez moves up from a 40+ grade last year year and it's actually a kind of interesting hypothetical in terms of which player we'd have preferred to deal. I think I'd have dealt PCA > Ramirez because the 1 thing you want above all with prospects is potential right?
for SP I think they will get 1 of the oakland guys
both are just solid fits and the exact type of player they should be trading for (depressed value since they are 1 year from FA, from a team motivated to save $). presumably Eppler has seen a lot of both and likes 1 of them sufficiently. if they can reduce trade cost by taking back even more salary even better.
bullpen will be really interesting to see who they target. a bunch of candidates out there and goes without saying they need to find another loup. hopefully that was a zauzmer find last year.
PCA's shoulder is okay he had a very strong shot at being a big leaguer, Ramirez far lower odds. His floor is a guy who flames out as soon as AA. PCA likely had more trade value at the time of the deal however. Ramirez is the guy you want your team to draft (he was an IFA) as a sexy/fun pick and PCA is the guy you're happy to have as part of the system. His upside is still pretty high though, a lead off hitter with some pop and great glove. Think pre-later career power Brett Gardner.
RE: for SP I think they will get 1 of the oakland guys
both are just solid fits and the exact type of player they should be trading for (depressed value since they are 1 year from FA, from a team motivated to save $). presumably Eppler has seen a lot of both and likes 1 of them sufficiently. if they can reduce trade cost by taking back even more salary even better.
bullpen will be really interesting to see who they target. a bunch of candidates out there and goes without saying they need to find another loup. hopefully that was a zauzmer find last year.
The Mets have seemingly "always" done the bare minimum when it comes to the BP. What's wrong with an "extra" solid RP? It's not like all relievers cost significant money or prospect cost.
Ya know, I completely missed multiple players in October noting how @Mets were missing a vocal leader. Not sure how common it is for a SP to be that, or to expect that from Scherzer but I found that interesting
at different times Lindor and Alonso seemed like leaders
but last year i think both got tainted in a way when things went bad.
Lindor obviously with the McNeil fight, the thumbs down schtick, and his own performance being non-ideal for probably the first time in his life.
without speaking for someone else it was hinted here that Alonso was the ring leader of the criticisms Scott spoke of in early August (not following rehab instructions, etc).
I think i'd previously said the new manager should call mcneil first but in reality he's probably 3rd. new manager needs to get those 2 onboard with being the right kind of leader because they both have the personality and talent for the role. And both should be here for the better part of the next decade.
RE: at different times Lindor and Alonso seemed like leaders
but last year i think both got tainted in a way when things went bad.
Lindor obviously with the McNeil fight, the thumbs down schtick, and his own performance being non-ideal for probably the first time in his life.
without speaking for someone else it was hinted here that Alonso was the ring leader of the criticisms Scott spoke of in early August (not following rehab instructions, etc).
I think i'd previously said the new manager should call mcneil first but in reality he's probably 3rd. new manager needs to get those 2 onboard with being the right kind of leader because they both have the personality and talent for the role. And both should be here for the better part of the next decade.
McNeil actually stated they have "never" had this kind of leader during his time here. Loup essentially said the same (though he was only here for one season).
was told a few months ago that Lindor was very well liked in the clubhouse. I know Chili Davis seemed to take a shot at him, but we have to remember, Lindor's struggles probably help end Chili's run here.
Two things that bug me throughout the manager search
One is, how come they have absolutely no problem attracting an incredible pool of managerial candidates, but no one wanted to even interview for the HEAD job? Hmm
Second, and probably just over thinking it too much. Nothing leaks publicly that they don’t want to get out. But last weeks “Cohen prefers Buck” made absolutely no sense to get out there - who benefits from that? Unless It’s to show Eppler is really fully in charge, unlike the last time an owner weighed in on the managerial choice.
dunno, the managerial names sure didn't seem to be under lock and key, in fact it was almost comical how ALL of the suggested names outside of Bochy actually ended up being the names they interviewed. They might as well have provided the list to the writers to leak. Not suggesting they did that but unlike the GM search this sure seemed to be obvious names, obviously considered.
McNeil is right (at least based on what we know about jdg personality)
in 2018 when he came up midseason the manager was Mickey and Conforto/Syndergaard were likely the 2 closest thing the organization had to leaders. But at the time both were 25 years old and actually 1 year younger than McNeil himself (since he was a late bloomer). Granderson was gone, Wright was done, so Frazier was probably the closest thing to a vet leader.
In 2019 BVW's attempt at adding a leader was Cano - who has never really had the rep of a great leader and struggled badly with his own performance (not to mention displaced McNeil even though he was the one who had an all star year). Alonso was dynamic but just a rookie.
The 2020 roster was basically the same as 2019 except for Syndergaard getting hurt and Stroman opting out.
A major factor re: Lindor was supposed to be that he was a leader bringing in a track record of winning. There were dozens of puff pieces on it from Spring Training last year through July (with plenty of players quoted). And starting with the fight with McNeil through the thumbs down undoubtedly the area where he most failed last year.
Sandy's recent comments while tame are about as much of a callout of a player just given a $300m extension as I've seen:
Quote:
“I think the [clubhouse] dynamic changed during the course of the season,” team president Alderson said. “That’s not unusual when a team is generally winning versus when they’re not as successful.
“What I’m hopeful is those who were new last year become more comfortable and accommodating of the demands that are placed on them in a place like New York.”
I don't think he was talking about McCann.
The success of the first half of the season validated a lot of the decisions the organization made in Cohen's first offseason. Better depth helped them withstand numerous injuries + better defense driven by analytics/acquisitions + better bullpen made them look like a winning squad.
But the disaster of August brought out the flaws that were lurking. A young manager lacking command of the clubhouse both when his middle infield fought each other or when the new MI thumbs downed the fans, a GM not on the same page as the org he oversaw when he fought with his batting coach early or when he called out his players publicly in August, and players preoccupied with the wrong things - led by the $300m man.
Of all the reasons why I think Buck will ultimately get hired his experience as a leader, including being understanding of the demands placed on him in a place like NY, is what is probably the clincher. He seems like the right kind of presence to help Lindor and Alonso get on track to being the leaders the organization needs them to be.
dunno, these don't sound like references to Lindor to me at all
"I think that's probably the one guy we might've been missing this year, is the [guy who says] 'OK, that's enough, it's time to get down to business,'" Aaron Loup told Devin Gordon of ESPN. "Because we all know everybody's trying, and you always get the rah-rah, 'next game, you got this' stuff. But at some point you need, 'OK, enough. It's time to go, now.'"
"We don't really have one guy who's getting after people," McNeil told Gordon late in the season. "Maybe it's something we do need. ... I've never really had that on the Mets. Three or four years, I've never really had that."
Sounds more like they didn't have an "asshole" who would get on people
actually think it's a bit of an indictment of Alonso, who has been here for a while, is quick to talk to the media and be overtly positive and how people in the clubhouse aren't worried etc.
Sandy is expecting Lindor to suddenly be that, that's extremely weird. A leader (and how a player leads) is a natural trait. You want Lindor to suddenly change who he is? That comes off as inauthentic.
shecky you would know better but here's a theory (beyond permissions)
managers are a fundamentally different breed than front office types.
managers do press every day in-season regardless of where they manage. even in the minors.
front office types rarely do press even at the GM level.
managers are used to travel and changing jobs every few years.
managers know the only way they keep their jobs is by winning.
the front office types the mets were looking for permissions on were in some cases people who'd been at the same organization for 5-10-20 years, already on a comfortable track to financial security without uprooting families or becoming backpage fodder for the Post.
the experienced GM's accustomed to the front of camera responsibilities that came along with the job were publicly leaking their interest (sabean, melvin).
the younger type of candidate the mets were targeting were different though - and I think the quote about how this job wasn't fit for someone who was uncomfortable being uncomfortable has a lot of truth in it.
and obviously for some of them permissions were an issue. LAD and MIL are 2 franchises we know denied them permissions over the past couple offseasons.
Sandy is expecting Lindor to suddenly be that, that's extremely weird. A leader (and how a player leads) is a natural trait. You want Lindor to suddenly change who he is? That comes off as inauthentic.
no i think the point with Lindor wasn't change your personality it was stop focusing on what you can't control - specifically re: the fans/the media narratives. the complaints about fans booing was a constant for several months before it metastasized into the thumbs down thing.
i think everyone likes Lindor's personality just fine because I don't think the players were lying when they were quoted saying all the positive stuff about him.
I think the implication is that he got frustrated with the extra stuff that comes with NY and handled it poorly.
think they had an overly vanilla roster (personality wise) and didn't have the manager with experience to handle that. Their best player doesn't really speak to the media much (and is a pitcher). Who on that team is really known as fiery? Conforto was being portrayed as the leader... because of his on field play and being a class act. Stroman might be fiery but it seemed only in relation to himself, the media and fans, if anything he seemed entirely focused on himself (and I say that as somebody who happily would have brought him back on that Cubs deal).
actually think it's a bit of an indictment of Alonso, who has been here for a while, is quick to talk to the media and be overtly positive and how people in the clubhouse aren't worried etc.
maybe a bit but Alonso is also well liked and clearly has the natural charisma of a leader.
the bigger indictment of Alonso is if he was doing some of the things Scott alleged.
bottomline I think both Alonso and Lindor have all the ingredients to be successful leaders here in NY if they have the right support systems around them to show them the way and keep them accountable. Scott and Rojas were not that.
also not to get off on a tangent that derails the thread, but 1 of the original warning signs of the season was when as a team they didn't hit whatever that threshold was for the vaccine to loosen the covid restrictions. not trying to get into that 3rd rail discussion but from a competition standpoint they were setting themselves back from day 1.
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
·
1m
Justin Verlander’s two-year, $50 million agreement for '22-'23 with Houston has been given formal approval by Major League Baseball, even at a time when the owners have locked out the players in the on-going labor battle.
MLB and the union have worked through the final details.
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
14. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (Age: 22)
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
Clemens thinks the cost for Bassitt would be something like a 45+ prospect and a lotto ticket type.
That seems about right and Lee or Ginn would fit. I'd have no issue dealing Lee + a lower level prospect (like a Junior Santos). Not sure I'd do Ginn unless they think he's a reliever.
Assuming Oakland eventually trades Olson I still think Dom is a pretty fair deal for either Bassitt/Manaea and the NYM probably need a slight+ if anything since they are giving up 2 extra years of control and taking on the $. And if Oak doesn't want Dom, we know the Twins were interested so maybe there's a 3 team that makes sense vs. dealing off any more prospects.
My general preference would be trading as little talent as possible and taking back any other $ they are looking to dump.
DMM do you think he's right about starting at AA? Seems aggressive?
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
RE: DMM do you think he's right about starting at AA? Seems aggressive?
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
Played 89 games in A+ last year, .889 OPS, unless they held him back to work on his defense (which does need work despite the tools to make it work) AA seems correct to me. Second half 2023 would be my projected eta but again, comes down to the glove.
Vientos probably debuts some time this year.
Baty right on his heels but maybe they hold until next year for 40 man.
Mauricio/Alvarez in AA so maybe they force it in 2023.
Ginn probably gets to at last AA.
Lee is obviously already AAA but they seem to think of him as a 4th OFer. Plummer too I guess.
if those top 4 do graduate by the end of next year that system is going to be empty unless they hit a grand slam with all the draft capital. huge year for Tanous/Tramuta.
to someone who confirmed there were "rumors" Seattle was very close to a deal for Gray which included 1 top 10 prospect in the Mariners system and a second piece.
like Baty a whole lot but hard to see a scenario he sees time in Queens this year. In large part what you noted (doesn't have to be added until after 2022) but he's also not a defensive "asset" even if he ends up average at 3b, hard to see a team down the stretch turning to a guy like that vs. a veteran addition (if there is a need). Sure, he could go all supernova and make it a no-brainer but with Cohens' wallet I suspect we see the Mets as a "salary dump destination" at deadlines going forward. Baty ended up struggling a bit in the AFL and he was good, not great in AA. I suspect he spends at least half the season at AA, finishes in AAA and is in the mix next year to open the season depending on the roster makeup.
Being any more involved kn the international market? Or are they stilll a year or two away given the delayed relationships in place.
Unfortunately, any impact Cohen and Co. might have was said to be “4-5 years”(this was when he bought the team, so this would be the second of “4 or 5” signing periods. away thanks to the grimey way things are done… massive caveat… international draft has more support than ever which would obviously change things substantially. Also should be noted, some top guys do
Wait on agreements so it’s not impossible they sign a top name before that time.
it sounds like int draft is at least in discussion in cba talks
this book above, but I'm Reading "So Many Ways to Lose" and the lack of recognition of Joan Payson by the Mets in almost every way is stunning. Cohen really could/should honor the Mets history even further. Payson and Shea, Kiner/Murph/Nelson etc. Considering his money (and the good will it would add) I think this is a no-brainer. Link - ( New Window )
This has the makings of no one being motivated to sit down until Feb 1. Which has to put the start of the season in jeopardy.
Anything is possible but I’d bet against the season starting on time. I think early May is what we’re looking at and I hope I’m right because i suspect it could be worse than that.
This has the makings of no one being motivated to sit down until Feb 1. Which has to put the start of the season in jeopardy.
nothing that's been reported but i was told by someone that's on the nonpublic briefing calls they don't have much to work out. the expectation is that talks will resume at some point after the holidays and by the real deadlines they will come to a deal. I didn't believe that optimism until the FA burst but now I do - it seems like both sides are fine with most of the status quo.
This has the makings of no one being motivated to sit down until Feb 1. Which has to put the start of the season in jeopardy.
Anything is possible but I’d bet against the season starting on time. I think early May is what we’re looking at and I hope I’m right because i suspect it could be worse than that.
I was pretty doomsday on these negotiations because of how the 2020 negotiations went but was told point blank this negotiation is a lot easier than that one. The expectation is nothing will happen until they face deadlines but that they will come to an agreement without impacting season.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Showalter is perceived throughout baseball as an overwhelming favorite for the Mets, whose expectations are sky high. Espada and Quatraro are widely respected and will be managers someday but folks on other teams see Showalter as the logical, likely choice. Nothing decided yet.
Christopher Soto
@SotoC803
·
4m
Week 8 #LIDOM Rosters are out.
As expected, #Mets 2B Robinson Cano has been re-activated after missing a few weeks due to injury and returning to the US.
if he were to get hurt, could the mets move to void the deal? or was it allowed as part of a previous CBA (or with team permission or something)?
I believe Cano was still technically suspended when that season started so not sure if he was doing so on his own or with permission from the mets?
Can't void the deal unless he was doing something that was banned per the terms of his contract. Some agents have pulled their players because insurance may not cover. He got hurt before the lockout, there is no way in the world the Mets would be able to argue their way out of that. He was reinstated on 11/4, played his first game AFTER he was reinstated.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
32s
Matt Quatraro's interview for Mets manager is today. I'm hearing the second-round interviews will be late-afternoon/early evening, after the markets have closed, so Steve Cohen can stay focused on his day job.
organizational all-stars (some of which are no longer even around... David Thompson, Drew Jackson and Winans are all "ex-Mets", Cortes we shall see) Link - ( New Window )
like Baty a whole lot but hard to see a scenario he sees time in Queens this year. In large part what you noted (doesn't have to be added until after 2022) but he's also not a defensive "asset" even if he ends up average at 3b, hard to see a team down the stretch turning to a guy like that vs. a veteran addition (if there is a need). Sure, he could go all supernova and make it a no-brainer but with Cohens' wallet I suspect we see the Mets as a "salary dump destination" at deadlines going forward. Baty ended up struggling a bit in the AFL and he was good, not great in AA. I suspect he spends at least half the season at AA, finishes in AAA and is in the mix next year to open the season depending on the roster makeup.
How concerned are you about the talk coming from the AFL that Baty struggles against elite velocity, given how much priority teams give to velocity over pitchability these days?
More concerned with him having to learn to lift the ball. There are quite a few high exist velocity guys who never were able to figure it out. If he’s hitting wormburners 3000 mph, it’s really no different than having a lesser exit velocity. That being said he’s an extremely hard worker and I suspect he’ll figure it out. It’s a legitimate concern until it’s not but let’s see 2022 before really becoming concerned. If it’s an issue this year then it’s a legitimate issue upside wise
The teaching has more recently included a tweak to his swing mechanics. Asked about his bat path having been described as steep in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Baty shared that he’s been “working a lot with the analytical guys on attack angle” and is now “keeping a better on-plane efficiency.” There is still swing-and-miss to Baty’s game — his strikeout rate is 25.7% on the season — but not enough to where he profiles as an all-or-nothing slugger. Light tower power notwithstanding, he aspires to be much more than that.
either of those guys makes the most sense of what's out there on the trade market. I didn't realize but Bassitt has actually gotten CY votes each of the last 2 seasons. If his age makes him less desirable via trade that could be the best fit. Or even if the prices are close.
is every bit as desirable as the others, and likely has the highest upside of the entire group. 3.37 FIP in 2021 (6th in CY voting). 29 in 2022 and a horse (6'2 250, made all 32 starts last year 5.9 innings per start). Pound for pound he could be the best/most interesting of the 6 SP's. Steamer has both he and Castillo posting 3.9 fWAR in 2022. He's just underrated.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
the last 2 seasons, 14 SP have a lower FIP than Bassitt (3.41), he's 23rd in fWAR during that time and that includes time missed after being hit in the face with a liner. He's basically been a top 20 SP in the sport over the last 2.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
can't verify this but apparently the plaque next to the home run apple (the original apple) says the apple dates back to 1981... but really was installed in 1980? lol
was reminded by that book that I keep referencing (I don't know the author or have any stake in his sales lol) that Fred had to be browbeaten into adding more Mets specific stuff to CitiField. What a joke.
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
I won't argue the unknown but the flip side is an older guy potentially could take less years (won't get long years) and in some ways that can be ideal. If they were to trade for Bassitt, like what they see first half, something like a 2 year extension (at more money then he's made over his entire career) might very well appeal to him. Like I said, I'd take any of the 6 (happily).
I think i would prefer Bassitt and Montas of the 6 and agree that Montas has the most upside. He gets his FB up to 97-98 with a real good split. He might be the only "available" pitcher I would prefer over Rodon. Huge fan.
Doug
@FTLO_Baseball
·
9m
Right background. I'm sure it's a good hire. But someone is probably going to point out that the Rangers broke all of their minor league arms a few years ago. Hey, you live and you learn.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
Replying to
@FTLO_Baseball
he's personally well-regarded, but also The Rangers
signed 2 kids from Curacao, considering they signing this late in the process they likely aren't major talents but the Braves traditionally have done well with Curacao, in large part thanks to Andruw Jones influence.
ZiPS has Castellanos falling back down to earth. 2.3 fWAR projection, 121 wRC+
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Well, Castellanos won't be playing half of his games in Cincy so that will depress his numbers. Mahle's home/road stats are quite stark which is one reason why I think he could outperform his past numbers moving to Citi Field. My concern obviously would be with his long ball tendencies I would try to minimize the number of times he needs to pitch @ Philly.
RE: Haven't kept up with latest. So is this down to just
system is pretty shitty, they really should aim for the best possible prospects for their SP. I know they are trying to cut payroll but their SP should be able to help bolster their system.
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
The Afterman/Ferreira/Adler/Mejdal group is hard to evaluate because it's probably the more likely group to contain the false rumors Law alleged, and had any of them interviewed I'd imagine it would have been unlikely for them to beat out Eppler. Are they probably smart execs and could they be good choices? Maybe. But like Cromie they are all far riskier hires then Eppler.
In a way with Cohen's money you may not need a GM with the most genius/creative strategy a la TB. Signing Scherzer is as uncreative of a move as there is. So imo there's a lot of value in simply having a credible, competent, experienced leader.
And giving that person the resources to hire/attract/homegrow as many young creative geniuses under him in the FO as possible.
Martino they asked for permission to speak to Ferriera, they had an informal talk and then she pulled her name. I find it hard to believe that was a "fake one". Wouldn't have cost the Mets anything to have a formal interview (and would have been positive PR), seems unlikely they asked for permission and then opted not to use it, more likely they exchanged pleasantries and it wasn't for her (for whatever reasons).
far as Eppler, quite frankly I don't have any real way to judge him yet. They spent significant money on the players they liked/targeted but spending money in itself is the "easiest" part of the job. Could I negotiate contracts? No. But I do think I could say "let's outbid the field for these players I like" lol.. this is not a knock on Eppler in any way.
while im sure their offers were highest they didn't overpay beyond
projections for pretty much any of the guys they got (Scherzer included) so I do think the org deserve some credit (divide up credit however you choose among Eppler/Cohen/Sandy) for being able to sell signing with the mets without having to give up multiple extra years beyond the projections like Texas did with Semien.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
RE: while im sure their offers were highest they didn't overpay beyond
projections for pretty much any of the guys they got (Scherzer included) so I do think the org deserve some credit (divide up credit however you choose among Eppler/Cohen/Sandy) for being able to sell signing with the mets without having to give up multiple extra years beyond the projections like Texas did with Semien.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
Martino they asked for permission to speak to Ferriera, they had an informal talk and then she pulled her name. I find it hard to believe that was a "fake one". Wouldn't have cost the Mets anything to have a formal interview (and would have been positive PR), seems unlikely they asked for permission and then opted not to use it, more likely they exchanged pleasantries and it wasn't for her (for whatever reasons).
I'm not saying she (or any of them) were specifically the fake name, there's no way for us to know. Just that I think it's more likely that group which was basically the 3rd tier of the search included whoever Law spoke to that was never actually contacted.
The tier 1 people were all publicly known.
Tier 2 were all the obvious candidates and most of the activity around them was been public (formal interview requests / denials / promotions)
The tier 3 crew was a lot more unknown. Some were probably real some probably weren't.
no, I don't think Eppler is the reason they were able to lure in guys like Canha/Marte vs. a "first time" GM. That's not even really how these negotiations go. Per Kevin Goldstein, teams have xyz assigned to specific agents so maybe (maybe even likely) that Eppler has Boras, it's unlikely he himself was negotiating all of these deals himself. Again, this isn't being critical at all, I just have yet to see anything that was a "interesting" move. This is outbidding, I'm happy they have done so.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Hear Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro made a great impression with Mets higherups. Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviews tonight and Buck Showalter tomorrow. Showalter seems like safe choice due to successful MLB track record but hear it’s more “divided” than fans/media expect.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
the fact that they were obvious names is my point. if you have the biggest spending owner you don't necessarily need to be an overly creative genius who reinvents the wheel beyond the obvious.
you need to be credible to sell agents/players.
and competent to act quickly/effectively.
I think Eppler's skill set has appeared to be a very good fit for what ended up taking place over his first month. Others may have had a similar skill set or the exact same plan but none had the experience of having done it for real like he had so it's uncertain whether or not they would have been able to execute. Eppler has been hitting his free throws down the stretch when it's mattered - which isn't nothing.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
MLBTR has been the most accurate with their projections thus far.
They projected the players the Mets signed to get $244m.
The Mets signed those players for $254.5m for the exact number of years projected.
by comparison Semien got 1 more year and +$37m more in total all by himself from Tex. Seager was +$20m. Baez +$40m.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
22m
FWIW, I hear Alderson favors Quatraro, which makes him my least favorite choice of the three. I want a manager who will have a voice and isn't afraid to push back when it's appropriate.
Jim BowdenBaseball
@JimBowdenGM
·
28m
If #Mets decide to hire a manager & put too much emphasis on the interviews.. it might not bode well for Buck Showalter. However, if the #Mets look hard at all the factors given their present situation including ownership immediate expectations than Showalter is the right hire.
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
24s
The verdict in Zack Scott’s drunk-driving case, scheduled for Thursday, was postponed until January because he contracted COVID-19.
He was a finalist for the job that went to Kapler
manager
Managerial candidate.
to take him back in a deal for a SP (to lower the prospect cost) but it might be something they explore
"Start the reactor Quaid!"
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Expect Mets managerial interviews to begin this week -- news on permission requests and actual interviews w/the names reported Friday: Kelly, Quatraro, Espada, Showalter, Ausmus. Other names are on list and may join the party later.
in most cases players can remain in contact with teams head physicians during the LO as they are considered private contractors #Mets
12:42
Have you heard what an international draft would look like? Currently players sign ~age 16. Would players be draft eligible at that age?
Kevin Goldstein
12:43
Likely 15-20 rounds. Likely hard slots. Likely hard cap on players signed after the draft. And yes, 16.
@mikemayer22
·
1m
There will be a minor league Rule 5 draft on Wednesday at 2 pm.
Baseball America notes that Mets right-handed pitcher Allan Winans is one of the best players available.
Winans had 1.72 ERA 0.81 WHIP between Brooklyn and Binghamton this season.
@mikemayer22
·
4m
Rays have given the Mets permission to interview Matt Quatraro. Sounds like it could take place tomorrow.
Quatraro has interviewed for the A's managerial opening per @TBTimes_Rays
.
Dan, what's your thinking on this. The Mets want to be data-driven. Showalter's not the type of manager to listen to tips from the office about who the play and where, is he?
Quote:
have reached out to Showalter.
Dan, what's your thinking on this. The Mets want to be data-driven. Showalter's not the type of manager to listen to tips from the office about who the play and where, is he?
I personally believe "manager" to be a pretty overvalued role. A huge part of it is controlling the clubhouse and the media. James Click started his career as a part time data scientist/BP contributor, he's running the Astros, Anthopoulos is on record regard how much he learned from the Dodgers and their analytics team, we all know about the Rays and Dodgers.
Every successful team is moving towards a model where the FO provides data and "light prodding" to their manager and it's a groupthink with decision making. Showalter won't be the hire unless they feel he can work within this type of setup. They have made 36 analytics hires, and are still hiring. If they feel Buck is receptive. His quotes from 2018 seem to imply he'd be open to such a setup, if they don't think he is, he won't be the hire.
"Buck Showalter: “One thing about analytics is that we all question what we don’t understand. You need to learn, so during the spring we do Analytics for Dummies. That’s what we call it. We take our most veteran baseball people, our on-the-field lifers, and bring them upstairs to go over every analytic there is and find the [equivalent of a] .300 batting average in every one of them. We take the black cloud of unknown away from it.
“What we’ve found is that most of our veteran people go, ‘Oh, really? That’s all it is?’ They’re not demeaning it, they’re just saying, ‘Now I understand.’ Know where the .300 batting average of WAR is, and what it tells you. Just as important, what doesn’t it tell you that you have to be aware of.
The Manager’s Perspective: Buck Showalter on the Changing Game - ( New Window )
Ausmus seems like a compromise candidate. if they want someone with managing experience but more youthful than buck.
wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it.
buck imo has the highest short term upside.
highest long term upside? who knows but probably not buck just because he's older. but he's 6 years younger than Dusty and if whoever they hire lasts 6 years+ it will be a successful hire.
Quote:
like Ausmus the least of the names being mentioned but not so strongly that I'll be really upset. I just find him to be the least interesting/intriguing but I won't be going on a long rant about how awful the hire is if he's the pick. I reserve the right to change my tune if they hire somebody truly ridiculous (Larry Bowa? c'mon lol).
Ausmus seems like a compromise candidate. if they want someone with managing experience but more youthful than buck.
wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it.
buck imo has the highest short term upside.
highest long term upside? who knows but probably not buck just because he's older. but he's 6 years younger than Dusty and if whoever they hire lasts 6 years+ it will be a successful hire.
Ausmus just strikes me as quite vanilla. Smart guy I'm sure (Dartmouth) but I've never really heard anybody rave about him. I'm sure he'd be fine, just wouldn't be enthusiastic about it personally.
@JonHeyman
Mets have reached out to interview Astros bench coach Joe Espada. Has strong link to Billy Eppler from when they were both with Yankees. Serious contender.
in this case it makes sense to do the experienced guys first and let them set a bar. then see if someone else exceeds that bar.
in this case it makes sense to do the experienced guys first and let them set a bar. then see if someone else exceeds that bar.
Bochy is in fact employed with the Giants, but I doubt they would need permission as his job is "special advisor" which is basically a part-time role. It's possible out of respect to the Giants, they would still ask for permission (which the Giants obviously would grant).
if he wants in though can you say no to that? he won 30% of the world series last decade lol
1m
Mets managerial interviews begin today, though it isn’t known who had the leadoff position among candidates. GM Billy Eppler and baseball ops will conduct initial interviews. Owner Steve Cohen will get involved for final interviews.
The problem is outside of Bochy the only experienced manager who has had any success, although every team did better AFTER he left, is Buck Showalter. The problem I have seen with the recent Mets managers is that they did not have a feel for the game. They always seemed to either be too early or too late when making moves. You will never get it right 100% of the time, but whatever the Mets tried always seemed to backfire.
but Alex Cora, as an example, won a World Series in year 1 of being a manager. Which is why I felt like Beltran, also as an example, would be no less risky than a retread.
Mets top 20 prospects for the 2022 season - ( New Window )
@JonHeyman
·
14s
Only 5 Mets managerial candidates are known so far — Showalter, Ausmus, Espada, Quatraro, Kelly — but with upgraded vetting and a couple interview rounds expected, no hire is expected this week. There also could be a mystery candidate or more (unknown).
@genymets
·
1h
NEWS: According to @martinonyc
, the #Mets are "hoping" to hire a manager by the end of the next week. #LGM
@ragazzoreport
·
5m
Sources: Mets ace pitcher Max Scherzer has made it known that he prefers Buck Showalter to be the team’s next manager
@ragazzoreport
·
5m
Sources: Mets ace pitcher Max Scherzer has made it known that he prefers Buck Showalter to be the team’s next manager
Not a great look for Ausmus considering he actually managed Scherzer...
@NYPost_Mets
·
21s
Bob Geren will interview for the Mets managerial opening this week, I can confirm. @martinonyc
first reported.
@MichaelMarino37
·
59m
Source: Steve Cohen has told Billy Eppler that he wants Buck Showalter as #Mets manager. He has given Billy the ability to conduct his own search, but Billy is aware of his preference. Additionally, “At least 1 big name Mets player wants Buck and is vocal about it”.
Link - ( New Window )
@MarkCHealey
·
13m
.@martinonyc
says Bob Geren will b interviewed for #Mets manager. My take: Of all the potential hires, this would be the very worst. Nice guy, suits & media speak highly of him. I say he's tactically inept, esp w BP. If he gets gig, Alderson made the call. This cannot stand.
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Not defending Showalter but they won 54 the following season, to give an idea of the talent on that team.
@MarkCHealey
·
9m
.@MetsDaddy2013
"Players did not trust Geren to do what managers do. He lost the team and could not get it back, and Beane had to fire him ... no one defended Geren. Not one A's player defended him. No one from other organizations defended him."
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Good question. I mean how did THIS team win 96 games?
Link - ( New Window )
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Cobb posted a 4.90 era, Bundy 5.45, Bundy stunk the following year without Buck as well (4.73 FIP), Cobb pitched 3 games (11 era) and then got her in 2019.
Trumbo 0.3 fWAR in 2018, Jones 0.6 (played one more season NEGATIVE fWAR and then headed to Japan). That was a really bad team.
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Maybe the '95 yankee team that lost to Seattle on the famous Griffey slide? But that was a team in transition. Mariano was pre-breakout, still had Mattingly, strike shortened year, etc.
He won 100 games in '99 with Arizona in their 2nd year of existence. That was a year before Schilling, who got acquired in July of his last year there then eventually became the 2nd team to win a WS the year after Buck left in '01.
In Baltimore he inherited a 64 win team and 2 years later had them on a streak of 5 years in a row above 80 (3x in the playoffs).
He's won manager of the year 3x each with a different team and led each of NYY, TEX, and BAL to big turnarounds. Ironically his 100 win year with the 2nd year expansion team he came in 4th.
In a quirk he seems to always win manager of the year on the '4 years. So look out in 2024.
Manager of the Year Voting
1993 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
1994 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
1995 AL Manager of the Year (4th)
1999 NL Manager of the Year (4th)
2004 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2012 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
2013 AL Manager of the Year (7th)
2014 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2016 AL Manager of the Year (3rd)
If you are Cohen (or any of us) Buck and Bochy are by far the 2 most accomplished options in this search. So I can understand him having a preference for the best track record of success. They are the obvious choices and to choose based on something else other than pure track record I'd also want my baseball people to make a very compelling case as to why to trust a first timer.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
I think he will fare much better in a second job, as most managers do. He was a highly regarded bench coach and Triple A manager. Just didn’t quite click as big league manager the first time around.
@SotoC803
·
3m
Looks like #Mets top prospect SS Ronny Mauricio's time in the #LIDOM is done.
No longer on the active roster for the Tigres del Licey.
If so, he finishes the winter....
.244 AVG/.644 OPS, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
@AnthonyDiComo
A strong Sandy Alderson connection here, as the Mets' team president has hired Bob Geren once before.
it could be as simple as a guy you ask because he's won 3 WS in his has 9 years managing but is retired for a reason.
Having interest in him is probably an obvious leave no stone unturned, but like Beane a longshot that he's looking for something so high profile when he's been taking steps away from the game.
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
@susanslusser
Replying to
@WexlerRules
He’s a good baseball man. I suspect he will not be as overwhelmed as maybe he was the first time around.
Quote:
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
Thanks, Dan.
"Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
Connolly (he was effusive in his praise of Showalter, so the note below (to me) holds even more weight in that it does imply Showalter will have to overcome this perception AND that Showalter claiming he's changed his tune on analytics is somewhat (or could be) contrived)
"What I found illuminating was Showalter started that campaign in the last month or so of the 2018 season. After years of pointing out that “analytics” doesn’t show a specific ability or little noticed scenario, Showalter in September began talking, unprompted, about the involvement of analytics in the way his staff picks up things or conducts business, even giving credit once to Duquette’s analytics department.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
BS: If you're trying to establish credibility, you're not going to establish credibility. You get credibility from having good players. It's not really complicated. We don't have much impact. You can have an impact negatively, but it's about how good your players are—and mostly your pitching.
And you don't set the—the word that's overused is culture or environment. You don't set it; the players set it. Now you might set it by trying to surround yourself with certain players. The players set that. Some of the front offices today don't recognize they're just putting together 25 guys by analytics. There's a place for that and I embrace it. But the teams that are the most successful organizationally are the ones that mesh the two, where you get really good statistical analysis and really good—I don't want to say makeup, you know what I'm trying to say. If those things match up, then you've got a real good player.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
I like Buck and I'd be happy if they hired him but Connolly made pretty clear that Buck knows how to play the room and says what he thinks should be said so I wouldn't take too much from what he says about Eppler. Somebody he knows personally, wanted to hire him with LAA (or consider) and is the GM of a NY team.
@MikeDiGiovanna
Replying to
@WexlerRules
and
@Mets
I wasn't the Angels beat writer in 2019 so wasn't around team enough to probably know ... there were obviously some things going on there that he was unaware of, had no control over, and maybe he should have. Once Skaggs died, team fell apart, so tough to judge him after that.
I don't think being resistant to some analytics makes someone anti-analytics. skepticism can be healthy - and I thought buck did a good job explaining his skepticism in the interview you posted yesterday.
I agree with him 100% that you can't just accept war or RC or any of the defensive metrics or any cumulative stat on it's face without questioning the inputs and understanding what those stats are telling you.
I was (am) 100% against the anti-BA trend that was popular several years ago and also against the anti-defense trend a few years ago. I'm not sure how broad those arguments were around the game vs. justifications some met fans were using to defend players on the mets at the time like Bruce/Duda/etc but i completely agree with buck that analytics can be bent to any narrative if you don't keep them in context.
ex. Lucas Duda's career RC as a Met is likely significantly higher than a very long list of players I would take over him even if we were just talking offensively (so taking position and defensive impact out of the equation). He was the perfect case study on the limits of the true 3 outcome player.
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
if so and Baltimore didn't invest in a quality analytics team, doesn't that make the position that much more justifiable?
on a quick look it seems Baltimore has only had 1 payroll in the top half of baseball in the last decade, and very many at the bottom, so it stands to reason that they were not investing the way the teams who are really good at analytics were.
“The question is why did (Wade) Miley, Edwin Jackson, (Jeremy) Hellickson, (Kevin) Gausman, Britton, (Brad) Brach and (Vidal) Nuño pitch more effectively with other clubs than with the O’s and, conversely, what made (Alex) Cobb and (Andrew) Cashner less effective with the O’s in 2018 than they were in 2017? And why are the agents calling the front office to intercede, to request the club implement a more analytical approach with the major-league field staff?” Duquette said.
The difference in his numbers — from -18 DRS and -7.2 UZR with the 115-loss Orioles to +6 and +0.8 with the 92-win Dodgers — also reveal one of the fissures between two top officials recently fired by Baltimore, executive vice-president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
If the front office actually had a good approach to analytics and the field staff was ignoring it, the firings should have wiped out the entire coaching staff immediately. This is the first that we have heard of a specific charge like this that I know of, but as mentioned before, this is the first time the people involved don’t have to be nice to one another publicly.
That pitchers who have been here with the Orioles have then gone on to succeed elsewhere is not in doubt. The question left to be resolved is whether there was something that the Orioles were doing, or not doing, that led to the pitchers Duquette named not performing as well here as they had done elsewhere.
Wade Miley presents the most extreme and absurd example. You can’t fail much harder than Miley did in Baltimore and still have a big league job. In 43 starts across his two seasons here, Miley posted a 5.75 ERA, averaging fewer than five innings per game started. That included a 2017 season where he led all MLB starting pitchers in WHIP. At the most basic thing a pitcher is supposed to do - keep runners off base - Miley was the number one worst pitcher in the game.
Again, I both don't particularly care who they hire and would be completely happy with Showalter but it sure seems like a valid concern that he will have to explain.
So Connolly noting Buck will have to show he's willing to become "modern" or he'll have trouble finding a job don't hold any water for you? An actual beat writer who praised Buck overall? I find that strange to be honest.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
"The answer is yes, but their partnership had nothing to do with baseball. Turner and Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers director of athletic development and performance science, recruited Ben to help them with their fantasy football draft. Turner and McDaniel wanted to use Zauzmer as their secret weapon to beat Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers GM from 2015-2018 and now the President of Baseball Ops for the Giants, in their league."
In addition to baseball, Zauzmer is the author of a book, “Oscarmetrics.” The book uses math to predict Oscar winners. Here is a profile on the book from the Harvard Alumni page.
In the profile, Zauzmer had this to say about using analytics in baseball, “It is a game of trying to blend the conclusions we get from mathematical sources with non-math information to make the best decisions.”
*those who never played the game.
Showalter on how to explain quiet game getting crazy: “Well, the launch angles ... No, that’s baseball. That’s why you don’t play it on a computer and it’s not purely analytical. That’s why people come, because things happen that aren’t supposed to happen on paper. And there’s three outs in an inning and everybody gets their turn. You can’t hand the ball to your best shooter or your best running back. You have to wait your turn in the batting order. It’s such a team game and there’s just so much ...
No one said anything to Showalter about launch angles. It's also like it's become his job to destroy straw men at arbitrary times.
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
“I can’t tell you how few people will score on that ball,” Showalter said, “and that’s a baseball player, that’s a lead, that’s a secondary lead, that’s anticipation of the swing through the zone. He’s a third base coach’s dream. In fact, we’re going to show it in the next advance meeting.
“So where does that show up in evaluation or analytics? His anticipation, his baseball player skills. That is a really hard ball to score on.
There are, in fact, baserunning metrics that take into account the ability to get a great read and take an extra base. Advanced analytical departments in organizations can do even better than what is publicly available for identifying how well a player performs on the basepaths. Statcast can also be used to show leads, secondary leads, and how baserunners respond to a ball in flight. But OK, sure, no single statistic is completely perfect or tells the whole story.
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
Link - ( New Window )
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me."
No. That's not what the job of analytics are. You don't go with your gut and hope the numbers back them up, you receive the data and use the data to form your opinion. It's not a "back up plan" it's supposed to be used to help put you in best position to win.
some of her other quotes from this article for those not subscribed:
quotes like that in combination with the FG interview you posted all lead towards thinking this isn't someone set in his ways who just ignores data out of hand.
I think that last sentence is similar to what your conveying which I think is fair - any manager needs to prove they are able to keep up with new components of the job.
I just think that's different then presenting something from his past as evidence that he's been averse to that. As she notes, if the orioles barely had an analytics team how is it at all possible to understand how Buck utilizes analytics?
Ghiroli: Buck Showalter should be the New York Mets’ next manager - ( New Window )
"Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that [bv]will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics[/b]. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever."
I don't care about his age AT ALL, he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave. In that way Geren (who I don't care for) has "proven" he can do it, because the Dodgers are the epitome of the modern franchise. He will be the face of the team, taking the brunt of the media etc for "his" decisions, when often times they will be formulated by others.
Connolly said he's not sure if Buck was smart enough to read the room and BS or if he was sincere.
I choose to believe Buck was sincere and Duquette was poor at his job.
That said there's only one way to find out which one of those things is correct. Talk to him and find out.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
Quattlebaum was a minor league hire forced into a role he wasn't equipped for. He was a scapegoat (and has since been reassigned). The Mets have made over 30 hires to the analytics department (and have 5+ job openings up on fangraphs), they aren't going to hire a manager who wants to "do his own thing". This team/organization is going to be built from the analytics side up. That much is clear.
"Predictive analytics, pitch/swing modeling, markerless biomechanical research, visual/cognitive deception, high-speed studies, player optimization/valuation"
They don't have 1 or even 2 hitting coaches, they have...a hitting coach, an assistant hitting coach AND a director hitting.
"While the Giants’ coaches are fluent in analytics and new-age ways of thinking, they take a tailor-made approach to each player, maintaining open lines of communication to ensure that they’re putting everyone in the best position to succeed.
“We have to give a lot of credit to our staff in terms of the preparation and the way that they make you feel before you go into that at-bat,” outfielder Mike Yastrzemski said. “The hitting coaches give you every detail of information that they know that you need. We talked about analytics earlier, but bringing in the human aspect [is something] they have done so well. Letting us let them know what we like to know. They got to the point where they don't even need to ask us what information we want. They already know it ahead of time.”
This is where the game is and where it's headed. Their manager (Gabe Kapler) was an innovator in improving player diets etc etc. These "new age" franchises, Rays, Giants, Dodgers etc are where the game is. Even AA said his time with the Dodgers opened his eyes to how behind he was in analytics.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
Quote:
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
I think it's safe to suggest somebody like Don Kelly (who just retired) in 2017 is likely more in tune with the modern push towards analytics than Buck Showalter. So those sorts of questions are less relevant. Dusty Baker flat out noted Espada would "help" him with understanding some of the data coming from the FO/analytics side, I'd guess very little of Espada's interview would be about his ability to do this.
"“Joey asks a lot of questions,” said the Phillies bench coach Rob Thomson, who held that role with the Yankees when Espada was the third-base coach. “When he first started with us, what he didn’t know or didn’t realize, he asked the questions, and he figured it out. The true beauty of this job is to be able to balance the analytics with what you’re teaching and how it applies to that player, this team, this situation.”
And Espada was able to produce results internally. Defensive overshifting in the infield is now common throughout the majors, but that wasn’t the case as recently as four years ago. The Yankees, in particular, had seen mixed results.
In early 2016, Girardi went so far as to say he would recommend banning the use of the shift (while conceding he would use it as long as it remained legal). As infield coach, however, Espada not only advocated the shift but also worked with the analytics team to help improve its algorithms and then communicate the plan to the players."
Link - ( New Window )
MLB: Buck Showalter A Life in Baseball - ( New Window )
@Joelsherman1
·
16s
Buck Showalter is doing his Zoom managerial interviews with the #Mets today. The plan is to take what is currently six publicly known candidates who will all do the Zoom and whittle it down to 2-3 for face-to-face next week and potentially a decision.
obviously if Bochy is interested that's also enormously compelling but there is 1 key difference between the 2 (which is also the reason why I would guess Bochy isn't realistic) - Bochy's legacy is in tact. He's won his 3 championships and has no doubters. He may or may not want the Mets but he definitely doesn't need them. Is it really worth it to him to give up his ride into the sunset for a job that's 1 or 2 injuries away from a pain cave?
On the other hand the Mets may be Buck's last/only shot to get the 1 thing that's eluded him. there is no question that on day 1 he's probably more desperate for a ring than anyone else in the org - including Cohen.
also if you are cohen, wouldn't you need a really good reason to choose anyone else over a guy who is 4/4 quickly turning around teams he's managed? i dont think this is a search that needs to be overcomplicated.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
-Puma claims Ausmus is viewed as a poor tactician and questions regarding how he would handle the NY media. Massive pass for me. In fact, I'm taking Geren over Ausmus.
1. Showalter 2. Espada, 3. Quatraro or Kelly (tie), 5. Geren and then Ausmus for me.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
Then Showalter is going to have to accept/want at least one coach on the staff that serves this role. Espada does this for Dusty (for example), the Rays actually just pulled down a member of their FO to now search on the coaching staff (zero coaching experience) to serve this very role.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
Is that true? You think if players don't buy into analytics they're less likely to perform when placed in a role that analytics suggest is their best chance at success?
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
that's as good of a theory as any. The players liked Chili, so it stands to reason that they may have been similarly rubbed the wrong way by Scotts approach even before he shitcanned Chili and called the players out in the press conference.
-Lindor started HORRENDOUSLY but his last 100 or so games were in line with his career numbers.
-McCann's numbers are completely in line with his career numbers (career 84 wRC+, 2021 80)
-In regard to Conforto he didn't seem capable of adjusting to what teams were doing to him. 2020 he saw the shift something like 48%, in 2021 it was closer to 75. Playing for a megadeal, likely had him less interested in opposite way singles. He walked nearly identically towards his career mark and his k's were actually down. There was nothing in his numbers to suggest anything but under performance, not a shift in what he was trying to do.
-McNeil also had near identical walk/bb rates to his career marks, his BABIP however was a whopping 55 points below his career WORST, there is nothing in "analytics" that causes you to go from an extremely "lucky" BABIP hitter to below average (especially when you're not walking or striking out more).
Analytics have suddenly become something of a "dirty word" to some but there is no real evidence the Mets hitters were hurt by them at all. An old school hitting coach and a manager who most of these guys hit well for in 2020...
The same thing happened with Scott too. I don't think any of us know for sure, but it does seem like Sandy was more eager to get someone else into the baseball opps role than Cohen was.
I'm a lot happier with Eppler than either of those 2 so good job Steve I guess?
Quote:
That many players do not really understand them and that you have to show them how they can be useful.
Because when people do not understand something, they begin to oppose it out of fear or discomfort.
I think that explains--at least, in part--the Mets offense floundering so badly last year. Analytics were imposed rather than implemented with full player buy-in.
that's as good of a theory as any. The players liked Chili, so it stands to reason that they may have been similarly rubbed the wrong way by Scotts approach even before he shitcanned Chili and called the players out in the press conference.
Numbers don't bear this out in any way. See below.
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
I think he's saying there was just conflict/lack of trust/poor communication between the players and FO - specifically when it came to hitting.
not that the players were right and FO was wrong. but rather that the FO's execution didn't work because the players didn't buy in.
I'd add to that argument that I think there was clearly conflict and a lack of being on the same page from a hitting standpoint. If they were that misaligned with chili they shouldn't have brought him back in the first place. Whether chili was right or wrong the players liked him so firing him may have created a rift.
contrast what happened with the hitting coach and how well discarcina (who players spoke highly of) was seemingly able to take advantage of defensive analytics (to great effect). though perhaps defensive analytics are less of a hot button for players where hitting is id imagine very personal?
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
Dan if you go back in mcneils profile he has never made a lot of hard contact (HH rate, exit velo, pretty much always under league average). look at his spray charts and you will see this past year he went opposite field way more than he did previously. I posted about it (i think) somewhere in the scherzer thread with pics will try to find that.
Quote:
was showing signs of this in 2020, it was mostly ignored because he had a HUGE September which people believed to be "McNeil is finally healthy". 2020 his slash line was .269/.336/.344 over his first 28 games
September... .998 OPS, .364 BABIP
All of his batted ball data from 2021 shows a guy who simply did not make hard contact. But... again 2020 was a harbinger of sorts. He was bottom 8% of the league in barrel % in 2020, in 2021 he was bottom 15%, hard hit% in 2020 was bottom 5%! 95% of the league posted higher HH% than him, we chose to "ignore" it. 2021 bottom 17% etc etc.
Dan if you go back in mcneils profile he has never made a lot of hard contact (HH rate, exit velo, pretty much always under league average). look at his spray charts and you will see this past year he went opposite field way more than he did previously. I posted about it (i think) somewhere in the scherzer thread with pics will try to find that.
That's false. His ISO was .214 his "big" 2019 season, it has been .142 and .109 since then.
From Paul Sporer
"This is a relative “Off the Radar” pick because obviously McNeil isn’t completely forgotten, but he certainly won’t be a Top 100 pick again. He was given a pass for his power outage in 2020 (-72 pts of ISO from 2019 to .142) likely due to his .998 OPS and 4 HR September after a .681 OPS and 0 HR over his first 28 games."
Quote:
There were many times, especially when he went the other way, that I thought off the bat that the ball was a hit but then it would be caught. This was true mostly of fly balls.
to my eye it looks like he went the opposite way a lot more in 2021 vs. 2019. look at all those blue dots for doubles on the RF line in 2019 and in 2021 he had more blue dots on the LF line.
the exit velocity, barrel %, and hard hit rates weren't far off. Better in the year he pulled the ball more which makes sense but all of them were below league average - so that's never been what he excels at in the first place.
His whiff%, k-rate, and chase rates were actually all better in 2021 - which I guess means they had him trying to be more selective and use the whole field as opposed to grip it and rip it to RF?
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=615417&show_all=1#15475720 - ( New Window )
That's false. His ISO was .214 his "big" 2019 season, it has been .142 and .109 since then.
From Paul Sporer
"This is a relative “Off the Radar” pick because obviously McNeil isn’t completely forgotten, but he certainly won’t be a Top 100 pick again. He was given a pass for his power outage in 2020 (-72 pts of ISO from 2019 to .142) likely due to his .998 OPS and 4 HR September after a .681 OPS and 0 HR over his first 28 games."
look at the statcast data I just posted from 2019:
avg. exit velocity 41st percentile
hard hit rate 35th percentile
barrel percentage 21st percentile
not quite what you would expect from a guy who hit .318.
2019 Jeff McNeil pulled his balls in play 44.5% of the time, 2021? 35% (career low), line drive%? Again, a career low 22.8%, 2019 26.6
.246/.299/.387 career, 80 wRC+
2021 .232/.294/.349 84 wRC+
732 career games played
Does 2021 really look like an outlier? Or maybe what the player has done for the vast majority of their career?
Steamer projects said player... "shockingly" to post....229/.292/.370- 84 wRC+...
HOT TAKE: Dominic Smith hits 30 HR.
Smith was horrendous in 2021. He had just an 86 wRC+ and 11 HR in 493 PA coming off a pair of 177 AB gems (134 wRC+ in 2019, 166 in 2020) and I don’t really have any answers for why he was so poor. He pulled the ball a lot less (-7 pts to 37%), but that doesn’t come close to explaining the downfall. His HR/FB plummeting from 22% to 9% certainly stings, but again, it only explains some of it.
The simple fact is that I’m willing to bet on his .236 ISO from 2017-20 over the .119 from 2021 and his bargain bin price gives the pick built-in protection in case he flops again as you won’t be inclined to hang on as long as we did this past season.
"He does a great job of filtering through some of the analytical numbers and stuff like that to make them a little more usable," former Mets manager Mickey Callaway said at the time.
So this narrative doesn't really hold up to scrutiny. Many of these guys (Conforto, McNeil, Dom etc) had strong 2020's with Rojas the manager and still here to communicate the data.
1. i have no idea whether chili or the analytics group was right or wrong. Nobody knows that for sure because they cant just redo 2021 and test different things to figure out who was right and wrong.
2. i think the 2021 team was not on the same page and there was internal conflict. chili got fired and clearly didn't like scott. again don't know who was right or wrong but i think that kind of conflict is bad for all involved.
3. re: mcneil I don't think his talent disappeared in 2021.
a) His bat control was still elite (whiff rate, k rate both better than 2019).
b) his average exit velo was similar to 2019 as well (88.8 vs. 88.1).
c) K rate and walk rate also almost identical.
his BABIP dropped and his spray charts show he pulled the ball a lot less. it stands to reason there may have been an approach change that didn't work. Again no idea who to blame for that. Using the whole field was more of a Chili concept btw and it looks like McNeil did that more in 2020 as well. or it could have just been a very bad luck (injury impacted) year.
4. Re: Sandy, guilty as charged that I'm a fan, however if there's 1 area i've long disagreed it's his lean towards 3 outcomes vs. contact players with bat control. I'm very happy Eppler seems to be a little more balance and actually that was 1 of the few positive things BVW did as well.
Recall good article read on Lindor that I will look for talking about 2021 not as a slump but a 3 year slide.
Not a good year but he did hit .283 hitter with runners in scoring position last season. And over the final month, had a .895 OPS, with nine home runs and 25 RBI. Will take a lot of this.
What is his new norm?
Quote:
79 games .822 OPS, Lindor career OPS... .821, heck his final 104 games his OPS was .776. Lindor had a truly AWFUL start AND expectations of him as an offensive player were too high.
Recall good article read on Lindor that I will look for talking about 2021 not as a slump but a 3 year slide.
Not a good year but he did hit .283 hitter with runners in scoring position last season. And over the final month, had a .895 OPS, with nine home runs and 25 RBI. Will take a lot of this.
What is his new norm?
Lindor's 2018 looks like an outlier so of course there will be a "3 year slide" if you don't accept that as one. His wRC+ in 2018 was 132, he's surpassed 120 wRC+ on only 1 other occasion (his rookie season).
His wRC+ in 2019 was 118... his wRC+ second half of 2021? 118. His 2020 was a down year and he opened his career with the Mets with a horrendous first 150 ab's (.589 OPS). So this "3 year slide" stuff only exists if you think his 2018 is who he is, which likely isn't the case (a near 8 fWAR player). His 2018 would have led all full-time position players in fWAR by near 1 full win. That's how ridiculous his 2018 season was.
lol, just kidding.
2021- None
2020-None
2019 Trout (won MVP), Yelich (2nd in MVP voting), Bregman (2nd in MVP voting), Bellinger (tied with Lindor 7.7, won NL MVP)
Link - ( New Window )
that kind of mental flexibility is just what the Mets need even if the decision was a disaster.
Link - ( New Window )
lol, just kidding.
not a bad idea.
(also kidding, i truly enjoy all the met discussions here even during these lightning rounds)
Need a bit more than that, say 122 or so.
the Diamondbacks were an expansion team and he won 100 games and a division in year 2. Got fired year 3 with an 85-77 record, and they win the WS in year 4.
the Rangers won 71, 73, 72 games the years before he got there. it was prime A-Rod. In Buck year 2 they trade A-Rod and go on to win 89 games. Obviously didn't keep that momentum going for whatever reason but he left them a better club than when he got there.
the Orioles hadn't made the playoffs for almost 15 years before him. Made it 3x with him and had 5 straight non-losing years. In his last year they only won 47 games but in the 2 full years since they had just 52 and 54 wins. Those years after 6 straight with 75 wins or more.
it's a lot like Dusty, all he does is win. Also a lot like Houston when they hired Dusty, this org could use a wide respected face.
the Diamondbacks were an expansion team and he won 100 games and a division in year 2. Got fired year 3 with an 85-77 record, and they win the WS in year 4.
the Rangers won 71, 73, 72 games the years before he got there. it was prime A-Rod. In Buck year 2 they trade A-Rod and go on to win 89 games. Obviously didn't keep that momentum going for whatever reason but he left them a better club than when he got there.
the Orioles hadn't made the playoffs for almost 15 years before him. Made it 3x with him and had 5 straight non-losing years. In his last year they only won 47 games but in the 2 full years since they had just 52 and 54 wins. Those years after 6 straight with 75 wins or more.
it's a lot like Dusty, all he does is win. Also a lot like Houston when they hired Dusty, this org could use a wide respected face.
24 big league seasons 85+ wins 15! Times including 7 in a row at one point, 8 1st place finishes, 7 2nd place finishes Showalter 20 seasons 85+ wins 8 times, 2 1st place finishes, 4 2nd place finishes.
Baker a truly incredible career, sad he's never won a WS.
Buck's 8/20 85 wins+ is probably the best or close among available managers and probably still top 5 among active.
Maddon has a pretty ridiculous 11/16 (I gave him 2 years at 84). Sciocsa had a solid 11/19. Bochy 11/25. Francona 14/21.
let's get buck to the 11+ club. and a WS.
@Jacob_Resnick
·
18s
Two new pitchers in the #Mets organization today, via the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft:
• Alex Valverde (TB), 25, 11.5 K/9 in Double-A
• Carlos Ocampo (CHC), 23, 120 Whiff+ in Low-A
Link - ( New Window )
Dusty Baker’s message for silent Mets: ‘First come, first served’ - ( New Window )
Eppler believes strongly in analytics and he is going to want to know his manager is not just going to give a cursory look at what is presented or distance himself from that group. He will want to know that Showalter, 66 in May, will continue to relate to today’s players; though that La Russa’s White Sox made the playoffs and Snitker’s Braves beat Baker’s Astros in the World Series is quite an endorsement that the elder set can still do this job at a high level.
Link - ( New Window )
Stability means something, and getting the staff in place and the player comfortable matters. So do a thorough check so we don't have to see Showalter fired after 6 months for an email he sent in 2004.
Noooooo! Not Son of Biff! Any scouting reports on the guys we selected other than solid K/9 and actually not terrible control versus what you usually find on younger age related to league arms with those K/9 totals in Minor League Rule 5. Some players with lousy ML experience got drafted too.
Quote:
@mets lose RHP Tommy Wilson (son of Biff Tannen) to @Mariners
Noooooo! Not Son of Biff! Any scouting reports on the guys we selected other than solid K/9 and actually not terrible control versus what you usually find on younger age related to league arms with those K/9 totals in Minor League Rule 5. Some players with lousy ML experience got drafted too.
Extremely limited info on both. Ocampo was 92-93 in a 2019 scouting report and reportedly has a plus slider, Valverde command issues but also a funky slider that generated k's. Nothing one seems particularly "exciting" on paper stuff wise but they missed bats so... who knows? Hadn't seen either one on any lists of guys who could be interesting and I googled for a while and didn't find really much mention of either guy so.. we'll see
Looks like Ken Rosenthal listens to me (I'm kidding) but funny timing
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
2m
Former Padres and Orioles coach Wayne Kirby was unable to strike deal with Angels on coaching position, sources tell @TheAthletic
. Could be candidate to reunite with Buck Showalter if Showalter gets Mets’ job. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner only current member of Mets’ staff.
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
7m
Brian Butterfield, dismissed as Angels third base coach at the end of last season, would be another possibility to join a Showalter staff with the Mets. Was one of Showalter’s coaches with both the Yankees and Diamondbacks.
Worth noting that Butterfield was in fact hired by Billy Eppler, so if the idea is to give Buck SOME of his own guys, this would seemingly be an ideal spot to do so
I hope @mets
think long and hard about their 3b coach hire. DiSarcina seemed overly cautious to a fault and it's a spot where a strong hire can steal you a few runs (and wins). @mets
finished 27/30 in baserunning (not all of that was lack team speed)
Process moving along seems like there should be a hire by next week.
Process moving along seems like there should be a hire by next week.
Geren was today as well.
Even if it were "only" Showalter/Espada today, they spent 10hours interviewing them today? No break? And Sherman said Geren also was today
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
#Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren also is interviewing for the #Mets managerial opening today.
Not enough hours in a day for the Mets to have spent 15 hours interviewing 3 candidates by 7 PM...
1 50 FV
2 45 FV
6 40+
For comparisons sake 2021 Mets list
2 55
2 50
1 45+
3 45
2 40+
And the Mets system was viewed as decent but thin... this list is AWFUL
Link - ( New Window )
Barring an eventual lefty swing change, Vera looks more like a good utility man or low-end regular, the kind of everyday shortstop who hits near the bottom of the lineup, and he’s FV’d such that we’re projecting that outcome. He has both the athleticism and, based on opinions from outside the org, the baseball aptitude to do that. Because the below-average plate discipline also creates bust risk here, we’re more inclined to take a “believe it when we see it” approach regarding the swing change rather than an anticipatory one.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
8m
Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviewed for the Mets manager opening earlier this week, according to a source. Buck Showalter and Bob Geren went today. Brad Ausmus and Matt Quatraro are believed to have interviewed. First round will possibly wrap up Thursday with Don Kelly.
Still seems hard to believe by 7 PM they had conducted 10 hours of interviewing but it looks like one to go with Showalter the favorite.
didn't wanna be the meat in a cy young sandwich?
Even if it were "only" Showalter/Espada today, they spent 10hours interviewing them today? No break? And Sherman said Geren also was today
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
#Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren also is interviewing for the #Mets managerial opening today.
Not enough hours in a day for the Mets to have spent 15 hours interviewing 3 candidates by 7 PM...
They’re rotating people, ie one hour with this guy, one with another group etc. could interview four candidates in six actual hours - if that makes sense.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Thought Don Kelly would be an interesting candidate for #Mets job. Well-regarded in industry. Was #Tigers teammates with Scherzer from 2010-14. Heard they were close. Their manager in ’14 … Brad Aumus, who is still in mix for NYM job.
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
·
3m
If Buck Showalter is hired as the Mets' manager -- and within the industry, he is viewed as the heavy favorite -- it'll be interesting to see if ex-Pirate coach Joey Cora emerges as a candidate for Showalter's staff.
Very solid group. I think I’ve talked myself into Buck or bust but I can see a case for any of them. Good to see u back sheck. Stick around, like a backup catcher grinding out year 8.
Scherzer, Verlander, Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, Smyly, Price
Miggy, Kinsler, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Hunter, Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson
Swept first round... by Showalter's Orioles no less a mediocre roster that somehow won 96 games
Seems like one has to bend over backwards to really vouch for Ausmus as the best hire
Link - ( New Window )
“No, for me, Albie, who had a great year, his best place is in the sixth or seventh inning,” Ausmus said. “There’s really only one time we might have used him, in Game 2, and we had Sanchie.”
Tigers manager Brad Ausmus always goes to the mat for his players. Even when doing so means being generous with the benefit of doubt, suspending some sense of belief or inviting the brunt of criticism on himself.
Castellanos’ miscue is hardly something to be treated in isolation. The Tigers have been a poor baserunning team overall. In fact, the club’s ineptitude on the base paths may be the biggest source of frustration, if it weren’t for the beleaguered bullpen claiming that dubious honor. In the past three seasons combined, the Tigers rank dead-last in BsR, a base-running metric that takes into account “stolen bases, caught stealing and other base running plays” according to FanGraphs. During that span from 2015-17, the Tigers BsR rating was -62.1, or 62.1 runs below average. This season, the Tigers have made 42 outs on the bases, tied for sixth-highest in the league, and five above league-average, according to Baseball Reference. There are only seven teams that rank lower in extra-bases taken percentage.
Some of that, of course, is due to a team’s personnel and lack of speed. But some of that is a result of mental errors.
“I don’t think we make too many mistakes. I think sometimes we’re a little overaggressive, sometime our speed doesn’t, you know, make up for some of the aggressiveness,” veteran outfielder Justin Upton said.
Link - ( New Window )
Current job: Out of baseball
Strengths: The former catcher certainly has a grasp of how to handle a pitching staff and is said to have a good relationship with Max Scherzer, who pitched for the Tigers for one season with Ausmus as the manager. Ausmus led the Tigers to the postseason that year (2014) and spent three additional seasons on the job before managing the Angels in 2019.
Weaknesses: Ausmus, 52, isn’t regarded as a strong tactician and there are questions how he would handle the New York spotlight and demands that come with serving as the voice for the team. After limited success with the Tigers and Angels he would be a tough sell to the fan base.
(Worth noting Scherzer has endorsed Showalter and not his ex-Manager).
Roch Kubatko
@masnRoch
#orioles acquire minor league RHP Tommy Wilson from #mariners for cash considerations
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
20s
A person with knowledge of the Showalter interview today with Mets officials: "They were pretty impressed with Buck today. It went really well.
maybe ausmus is above that since he's managed before. if you squint he's girardi-esque and being mentored by leyland isn't nothing. but again sitting next to francona didn't help callaway.
my mystery candidate guess is Farrell. I think he was mentioned earlier in the lists of names and he kind of fits what they seem to be looking for. Right age, won a WS, managed in big city, etc.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
20s
A person with knowledge of the Showalter interview today with Mets officials: "They were pretty impressed with Buck today. It went really well.
this offseason gonna double break the nightengale curse.
@Jacob_Resnick
·
1m
The #Mets signed 23-year-old RHP Jesus Vargas to a minor league contract.
Vargas pitched five seasons in the Dodgers organization, posting a 3.65 ERA and reaching High-A in 2021.
Scherzer, Verlander, Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, Smyly, Price
Miggy, Kinsler, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez, Hunter, Rajai Davis, Austin Jackson
Swept first round... by Showalter's Orioles no less a mediocre roster that somehow won 96 games
Seems like one has to bend over backwards to really vouch for Ausmus as the best hire Link - ( New Window )
Ausmus is smart. He went to Dartmouth.
He was also a catcher and there is the whole theory that catchers make the best mangers because they are the most familiar with pitching.
He has experience and is not adverse to analytics.
He has always seemed on paper like a guy who was going to be a great manger. That's why he was hired twice.
However, he just seems to lack something. Maybe its leadership or personality. And as you have pointed out the fact that Scherzer wants Buck speaks volumes.
Buck really seems like the better choice, especially for a team like the Mets who have committed to winning now.
@Joelsherman1
·
14s
The #Mets’s sixth and expected to be final first-round interview for their managing position is with #Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, The Post has learned.
@NYPost_Mets
·
2m
The Mets' first-round managerial interviews appear complete with Dodgers coach Clayton McCullough, as @Joelsherman1
reported. Steve Cohen will become involved in the next round, which might begin as soon as this weekend. He will speak with 2-3 finalists.
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
it's really too bad Syndergaard bailed early. He'd have been the perfect final piece to the rotation - especially if he agreed to do extended ST for a while so that way he could finish the season without any innings limitations. that would have even opened up a slot to add another depth guy to start the year with a spot for at least a month or two.
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
I wonder if they can lure him with a bench coach spot and a salary bump if they like him a lot but go with 1 of the veterans? bench coach is kind of a promotion and if they go with buck he's obviously older than roberts by a healthy margin. plus a new experience for Clayton.
deGrom/Scherzer/Rodon/Walker/Greinke/Carrasco/Peterson/Megill/Yamamoto
Quote:
Seth Frankoff
@Frankoff43
·
2m
A major league team will be very lucky to have Clayton as their manager. His combination of feel/knowledge of the game and ability to communicate with different personalities/personnel is off the charts!
I wonder if they can lure him with a bench coach spot and a salary bump if they like him a lot but go with 1 of the veterans? bench coach is kind of a promotion and if they go with buck he's obviously older than roberts by a healthy margin. plus a new experience for Clayton.
Sounds good but Showalter on more than one occasion mentioned how familiarity is something he really pushes for in his coaching staff. He kept many of his coaches for the entire run in Baltimore (Wayne Kirby all 8 seasons) etc. My guess, is he will want his own bench coach. Good chance he would have picked Dickerson had he not just joined the Phillies.
Matz has done 29+ the last 3 full years and Gausman has done 31+ the last 5 full years, and those are the 2 SP other than Scherzer we know they had committable offers in front of. I could see them rolling the dice on Rodon (+ another depth guy as insurance) if other things don't develop but I think they will first try to find someone more similar in reliability to matz/gausman.
I expect the staff will be filled with 80-90% guys he has relationships with and then a handful of others the organization likes (kind of like Hefner - though I wouldn't be shocked if his role changes or something) - and also I wouldn't be surprised if they add new/extra positions sort of like SFG.
Just feels like bench coach would be a major role to "give up" to somebody you have absolutely zero history with. Already pitching coach isn't your pick (nothing against Hefner). I'd be surprised if they went with McCullough unless Buck has him forced upon him.
this is just a guess but it wouldn't shock me if the new staff has 2 or more titles that we've never had before. Hoarding smart people is sort of the new frontier of MLB.
Quote:
Per @JeffPassan @mets wanted to sign BOTH Gausman and Scherzer. Sucks they didn't land Gausman but it does suggest they realize they need another "good" SP. One of the Oakland/Reds "6"? Rodon? Somebody else? #Mets
it's really too bad Syndergaard bailed early. He'd have been the perfect final piece to the rotation - especially if he agreed to do extended ST for a while so that way he could finish the season without any innings limitations. that would have even opened up a slot to add another depth guy to start the year with a spot for at least a month or two.
+1. This is what I keep thinking also. It would have been such a good situation for everyone.
Now he should have all their analysts cranking to rank their preferences on the entire pitching market whether it's trades or FA:
reliable #2/3 candidates (Manaea, Bassit, Gray, Rodon, etc)
depth players with options (sort of like Trevor Williams/Luchesi)
maybe also browse high end relievers who may only have 1 or 2 years of control left and bigger salaries than their teams prefer. The whole point of having a deep front office is being able to find the next robbie ray, kevin gausman, steven matz to buy low on now before they cash in big in FA.
I know it might not matter but just thought it would be a fun question.
My guess:
Eppler - Showalter
Sandy - Geren
Players - Espada
Cohen im sure would prefer someone with a track record to someone "learning on his dime" so I think he takes that recommendation - possibly to the point of being his preference.
Sandy no idea and at this point in his career I think he wants to differ to others. He hired Collins, who was obviously most comparable to Buck. He hired Callaway, who was obviously more comparable to any of the inexperienced guys. It's natural to swing to something different when it doesn't work out which in this case would be a more experienced hire, and we know he was interested in Melvin. So I'd guess he go with 1 of the experience candidates but not sure which one.
Just a thought.
also this made me lol.
we too have noticed no significant differences in the number of leaks you get Tim.
Mets mail part 1: On managerial candidates, filling out the coaching staff, remaining offseason to-do list and more - ( New Window )
All the guys turning down opportunities to interview for the GM position. Combined with their poor finishes the last few years.
Also, one that does not get mentioned: Steve Cohen is the personification of evil on social justice blogs. On Reddit's Wall Street Bets, with well over a million followers, mostly young and social justice oriented, Cohen was consistently bashed during the Gamestop/meme stocks bubble. (Of course, this ignores that the meme stockers were trying to do exactly what Steve Cohen and other hedge fund mangers do. They just were not as good at it.)
I'm not say Thor read something and decided that's it. Rather, it was a general atmosphere about the team and the owner.
That's why I think Eppler was so smart to come in like a hurricane. Sign some quality vets short term as part of the plan to lure the Biggest Fish of them all. Once the Mets signed Scherzer that changed the entire perception.
And I would be willing to bet that Thor regrets having signed with the Angels. It seemed like an incredibly impulsive decision.
Link - ( New Window )
I know it might not matter but just thought it would be a fun question.
My guess:
Eppler - Showalter
Sandy - Geren
Players - Espada
Scherzer has also said Buck. I think Showalter and Espada (in some order) are 1 and 1A for both Eppler and the players. Sandy wants Geren because of their past relationship and that Sandy/Sandy's son can control him. The question for Cohen will be whether he goes with the vet or the manager that offers the most upside. I think he goes the safe route especially knowing that Buck is probably in the top 2 of everyone versus someone who might be #1 on more lists but lower down on those who value MLB expereince.
It really is nice to know Mets are aiming for the best candidates, its nice to see we are really trying to win now.
Remember our candidates when we hired Beltran? Rosas, Hale and I think Backman were the best choices. glad that worked out
It really is nice to know Mets are aiming for the best candidates, its nice to see we are really trying to win now.
Remember our candidates when we hired Beltran? Rosas, Hale and I think Backman were the best choices. glad that worked out
the guy from tampa is also a finalist
@timbhealey
·
2m
Source: Joe Espada, Matt Quatraro and Buck Showalter are the finalists for the Mets’ managerial job.
@timbhealey
·
2m
Source: Joe Espada, Matt Quatraro and Buck Showalter are the finalists for the Mets’ managerial job.
yea I just saw that, still a great 3rd candidate.
-Former Mets prospect PCA comes in at #13 in a very deep Cubs system with a 45. For comparisons sake pre-2021 Fangraphs had JT Ginn as a 45 and PCA also a 45. When it comes to fangraphs rankings the grade is more important than the actual ranking.
Position: Director, Systems Engineering
Summary:
Our Technology department delivers all technology solutions used within the organization. Our team is comprised of individuals that are highly proficient in their respective technology platforms, articulate, solution driven, client focused and proactive in building their technology skills. We are seeking an accomplished senior manager to lead the team focused on end-to-end service delivery from solutions design to operations. In this role, you will take on a wide range of responsibilities including establishing and driving the strategic and architectural direction of the team. You will be responsible for team leadership, ensuring that your team members are efficient, happy, and have opportunities to continue to learn and grow their careers.
-Former Mets prospect PCA comes in at #13 in a very deep Cubs system with a 45. For comparisons sake pre-2021 Fangraphs had JT Ginn as a 45 and PCA also a 45. When it comes to fangraphs rankings the grade is more important than the actual ranking.
here's their blurb on him.
I was a big PCA fan when they drafted him because I think there is solid value in the JBJ's of the world. Premium position plus defense is not nothing and generally a safe carrying tool to bet on.
But a major injury and a 2nd lost year in a row added risk and with an ownership willing to spend he's a guy they can (and kind of have) spent to replace. They may have done well to get something for him while his draft pedigree was still fresh. Fair or unfair the deck is a bit stacked against him with such a long layoff pre-debut. I hope he figures it out though, he seemed like a good kid who had the right intangibles.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
right and while Logenhagen hasnt updated the NYM org list yet, presumably he again would have put PCA between 6-9th. Last year he was 6th with a 45 grade (same grade as Ginn/Lee who were 7th/8th) with the 5 above him carrying a 45+ (Baty), 50 (Vientos, Allan), or 55 (Mauricio, Alvarez) grades.
i'd think Ramirez moves up from a 40+ grade last year year and it's actually a kind of interesting hypothetical in terms of which player we'd have preferred to deal. I think I'd have dealt PCA > Ramirez because the 1 thing you want above all with prospects is potential right?
bullpen will be really interesting to see who they target. a bunch of candidates out there and goes without saying they need to find another loup. hopefully that was a zauzmer find last year.
bullpen will be really interesting to see who they target. a bunch of candidates out there and goes without saying they need to find another loup. hopefully that was a zauzmer find last year.
The Mets have seemingly "always" done the bare minimum when it comes to the BP. What's wrong with an "extra" solid RP? It's not like all relievers cost significant money or prospect cost.
Link - ( New Window )
Lindor obviously with the McNeil fight, the thumbs down schtick, and his own performance being non-ideal for probably the first time in his life.
without speaking for someone else it was hinted here that Alonso was the ring leader of the criticisms Scott spoke of in early August (not following rehab instructions, etc).
I think i'd previously said the new manager should call mcneil first but in reality he's probably 3rd. new manager needs to get those 2 onboard with being the right kind of leader because they both have the personality and talent for the role. And both should be here for the better part of the next decade.
Lindor obviously with the McNeil fight, the thumbs down schtick, and his own performance being non-ideal for probably the first time in his life.
without speaking for someone else it was hinted here that Alonso was the ring leader of the criticisms Scott spoke of in early August (not following rehab instructions, etc).
I think i'd previously said the new manager should call mcneil first but in reality he's probably 3rd. new manager needs to get those 2 onboard with being the right kind of leader because they both have the personality and talent for the role. And both should be here for the better part of the next decade.
McNeil actually stated they have "never" had this kind of leader during his time here. Loup essentially said the same (though he was only here for one season).
Second, and probably just over thinking it too much. Nothing leaks publicly that they don’t want to get out. But last weeks “Cohen prefers Buck” made absolutely no sense to get out there - who benefits from that? Unless It’s to show Eppler is really fully in charge, unlike the last time an owner weighed in on the managerial choice.
In 2019 BVW's attempt at adding a leader was Cano - who has never really had the rep of a great leader and struggled badly with his own performance (not to mention displaced McNeil even though he was the one who had an all star year). Alonso was dynamic but just a rookie.
The 2020 roster was basically the same as 2019 except for Syndergaard getting hurt and Stroman opting out.
A major factor re: Lindor was supposed to be that he was a leader bringing in a track record of winning. There were dozens of puff pieces on it from Spring Training last year through July (with plenty of players quoted). And starting with the fight with McNeil through the thumbs down undoubtedly the area where he most failed last year.
Sandy's recent comments while tame are about as much of a callout of a player just given a $300m extension as I've seen:
“What I’m hopeful is those who were new last year become more comfortable and accommodating of the demands that are placed on them in a place like New York.”
I don't think he was talking about McCann.
The success of the first half of the season validated a lot of the decisions the organization made in Cohen's first offseason. Better depth helped them withstand numerous injuries + better defense driven by analytics/acquisitions + better bullpen made them look like a winning squad.
But the disaster of August brought out the flaws that were lurking. A young manager lacking command of the clubhouse both when his middle infield fought each other or when the new MI thumbs downed the fans, a GM not on the same page as the org he oversaw when he fought with his batting coach early or when he called out his players publicly in August, and players preoccupied with the wrong things - led by the $300m man.
Of all the reasons why I think Buck will ultimately get hired his experience as a leader, including being understanding of the demands placed on him in a place like NY, is what is probably the clincher. He seems like the right kind of presence to help Lindor and Alonso get on track to being the leaders the organization needs them to be.
"I think that's probably the one guy we might've been missing this year, is the [guy who says] 'OK, that's enough, it's time to get down to business,'" Aaron Loup told Devin Gordon of ESPN. "Because we all know everybody's trying, and you always get the rah-rah, 'next game, you got this' stuff. But at some point you need, 'OK, enough. It's time to go, now.'"
"We don't really have one guy who's getting after people," McNeil told Gordon late in the season. "Maybe it's something we do need. ... I've never really had that on the Mets. Three or four years, I've never really had that."
Sounds more like they didn't have an "asshole" who would get on people
managers do press every day in-season regardless of where they manage. even in the minors.
front office types rarely do press even at the GM level.
managers are used to travel and changing jobs every few years.
managers know the only way they keep their jobs is by winning.
the front office types the mets were looking for permissions on were in some cases people who'd been at the same organization for 5-10-20 years, already on a comfortable track to financial security without uprooting families or becoming backpage fodder for the Post.
the experienced GM's accustomed to the front of camera responsibilities that came along with the job were publicly leaking their interest (sabean, melvin).
the younger type of candidate the mets were targeting were different though - and I think the quote about how this job wasn't fit for someone who was uncomfortable being uncomfortable has a lot of truth in it.
and obviously for some of them permissions were an issue. LAD and MIL are 2 franchises we know denied them permissions over the past couple offseasons.
no i think the point with Lindor wasn't change your personality it was stop focusing on what you can't control - specifically re: the fans/the media narratives. the complaints about fans booing was a constant for several months before it metastasized into the thumbs down thing.
i think everyone likes Lindor's personality just fine because I don't think the players were lying when they were quoted saying all the positive stuff about him.
I think the implication is that he got frustrated with the extra stuff that comes with NY and handled it poorly.
maybe a bit but Alonso is also well liked and clearly has the natural charisma of a leader.
the bigger indictment of Alonso is if he was doing some of the things Scott alleged.
bottomline I think both Alonso and Lindor have all the ingredients to be successful leaders here in NY if they have the right support systems around them to show them the way and keep them accountable. Scott and Rojas were not that.
also not to get off on a tangent that derails the thread, but 1 of the original warning signs of the season was when as a team they didn't hit whatever that threshold was for the vaccine to loosen the covid restrictions. not trying to get into that 3rd rail discussion but from a competition standpoint they were setting themselves back from day 1.
@Buster_ESPN
·
1m
Justin Verlander’s two-year, $50 million agreement for '22-'23 with Houston has been given formal approval by Major League Baseball, even at a time when the owners have locked out the players in the on-going labor battle.
MLB and the union have worked through the final details.
7. Francisco Álvarez, C, Mets (Age: 20)
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
14. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (Age: 22)
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
That seems about right and Lee or Ginn would fit. I'd have no issue dealing Lee + a lower level prospect (like a Junior Santos). Not sure I'd do Ginn unless they think he's a reliever.
Assuming Oakland eventually trades Olson I still think Dom is a pretty fair deal for either Bassitt/Manaea and the NYM probably need a slight+ if anything since they are giving up 2 extra years of control and taking on the $. And if Oak doesn't want Dom, we know the Twins were interested so maybe there's a 3 team that makes sense vs. dealing off any more prospects.
My general preference would be trading as little talent as possible and taking back any other $ they are looking to dump.
7. Francisco Álvarez, C, Mets (Age: 20)
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
Quote:
7. Francisco Álvarez, C, Mets (Age: 20)
The first of two Mets prospects on the list, Álvarez only turned 20 years old in November. Despite his youth, he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs across two levels in 2021. Part of Álvarez's season included a stint with the St. Lucie Mets. It was then that he posted the highest average exit velocity the league saw all season -- and that league included the likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Hendrick. It's rare to see such offensive potency from a young backstop who is certain to remain behind the plate. Álvarez figures to open the year in Double-A; he's one to watch.
Played 89 games in A+ last year, .889 OPS, unless they held him back to work on his defense (which does need work despite the tools to make it work) AA seems correct to me. Second half 2023 would be my projected eta but again, comes down to the glove.
Baty right on his heels but maybe they hold until next year for 40 man.
Mauricio/Alvarez in AA so maybe they force it in 2023.
Ginn probably gets to at last AA.
Lee is obviously already AAA but they seem to think of him as a 4th OFer. Plummer too I guess.
if those top 4 do graduate by the end of next year that system is going to be empty unless they hit a grand slam with all the draft capital. huge year for Tanous/Tramuta.
Link - ( New Window )
@JamesFox917
·
34m
The #WhiteSox are signing Cuban outfielder Oscar Colás and Dominican teenager Erick Hernandez in January.
Unfortunately, any impact Cohen and Co. might have was said to be “4-5 years”(this was when he bought the team, so this would be the second of “4 or 5” signing periods. away thanks to the grimey way things are done… massive caveat… international draft has more support than ever which would obviously change things substantially. Also should be noted, some top guys do
Wait on agreements so it’s not impossible they sign a top name before that time.
if Alvarez pans out i'll be content on the ifa side for a while.
ZiPS also likes Oneil Cruz to have a strong rookie season .269/.319/.500, 17 homers, 2.5 fWAR
Struggled second half, but already 28... what does JT Brubaker cost @mets
via trade?
Link - ( New Window )
@Buster_ESPN
·
14s
As the Mets go through their managerial search, Joe Espada's second interview will occur Thursday.
Anything is possible but I’d bet against the season starting on time. I think early May is what we’re looking at and I hope I’m right because i suspect it could be worse than that.
nothing that's been reported but i was told by someone that's on the nonpublic briefing calls they don't have much to work out. the expectation is that talks will resume at some point after the holidays and by the real deadlines they will come to a deal. I didn't believe that optimism until the FA burst but now I do - it seems like both sides are fine with most of the status quo.
Quote:
This has the makings of no one being motivated to sit down until Feb 1. Which has to put the start of the season in jeopardy.
Anything is possible but I’d bet against the season starting on time. I think early May is what we’re looking at and I hope I’m right because i suspect it could be worse than that.
I was pretty doomsday on these negotiations because of how the 2020 negotiations went but was told point blank this negotiation is a lot easier than that one. The expectation is nothing will happen until they face deadlines but that they will come to an agreement without impacting season.
@JonHeyman
Showalter is perceived throughout baseball as an overwhelming favorite for the Mets, whose expectations are sky high. Espada and Quatraro are widely respected and will be managers someday but folks on other teams see Showalter as the logical, likely choice. Nothing decided yet.
@SotoC803
·
4m
Week 8 #LIDOM Rosters are out.
As expected, #Mets 2B Robinson Cano has been re-activated after missing a few weeks due to injury and returning to the US.
@SotoC803
·
4m
Week 8 #LIDOM Rosters are out.
As expected, #Mets 2B Robinson Cano has been re-activated after missing a few weeks due to injury and returning to the US.
if he were to get hurt, could the mets move to void the deal? or was it allowed as part of a previous CBA (or with team permission or something)?
I believe Cano was still technically suspended when that season started so not sure if he was doing so on his own or with permission from the mets?
Quote:
Christopher Soto
@SotoC803
·
4m
Week 8 #LIDOM Rosters are out.
As expected, #Mets 2B Robinson Cano has been re-activated after missing a few weeks due to injury and returning to the US.
if he were to get hurt, could the mets move to void the deal? or was it allowed as part of a previous CBA (or with team permission or something)?
I believe Cano was still technically suspended when that season started so not sure if he was doing so on his own or with permission from the mets?
Can't void the deal unless he was doing something that was banned per the terms of his contract. Some agents have pulled their players because insurance may not cover. He got hurt before the lockout, there is no way in the world the Mets would be able to argue their way out of that. He was reinstated on 11/4, played his first game AFTER he was reinstated.
@fishstripes
Craig Mish: "I have not heard ANYTHING positive about Sixto Sánchez over the past year. Nothing."
Implies that Sixto has disobeyed the Marlins organization on aspects of his rehab/conditioning plan since suffering shoulder injury in the spring.
@NYPost_Mets
·
32s
Matt Quatraro's interview for Mets manager is today. I'm hearing the second-round interviews will be late-afternoon/early evening, after the markets have closed, so Steve Cohen can stay focused on his day job.
Link - ( New Window )
How concerned are you about the talk coming from the AFL that Baty struggles against elite velocity, given how much priority teams give to velocity over pitchability these days?
the biggest issue with those 3 relative to the Oakland guys is they have more YOC so the trade costs will be higher.
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Link - ( New Window )
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
Quote:
see any reason Bassitt will cost less than Manaea. He's older, but what does that matter on a 1 year deal? Manaea isn't exactly young either (30 in February). So while, I know you think certain guys can be "better" than they have been, a 30 year old SP and a 33 year old SP on 1 year deals likely have very similar trade value, unless one is showing signs of decline (the opposite is true with Bassitt, who looks to be a late peaker)
I agree the value on both is likely very similar.
I could see teams preferring either, and the biggest reason to prefer Manaea is age. It's not likely relevant to 2022 if they are trading for them as a 1 year rental but it is relevant for any team considering them a multi-year acquisition. Not a big factor but a factor.
I won't argue the unknown but the flip side is an older guy potentially could take less years (won't get long years) and in some ways that can be ideal. If they were to trade for Bassitt, like what they see first half, something like a 2 year extension (at more money then he's made over his entire career) might very well appeal to him. Like I said, I'd take any of the 6 (happily).
@FTLO_Baseball
·
9m
Right background. I'm sure it's a good hire. But someone is probably going to point out that the Rangers broke all of their minor league arms a few years ago. Hey, you live and you learn.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
Replying to
@FTLO_Baseball
he's personally well-regarded, but also The Rangers
Jonathan "Jono" Armold
Link - ( New Window )
Also 15 year old Cuban phenom Christian Baez has reportedly defected
Quote:
Hired Dan Arnold as minor league pitching coordinator. Was previously with the Rangers.
Jonathan "Jono" Armold Link - ( New Window )
Whoops. Had NFL players on my mind.
Saez
They like Stroman to continue his strong performance-Stroman 170 innings 148 k's 3.79 FIP 3.5 fWAR, Miley a waiver wire steal (2.4 fWAR, 4.21 FIP)
Well, Castellanos won't be playing half of his games in Cincy so that will depress his numbers. Mahle's home/road stats are quite stark which is one reason why I think he could outperform his past numbers moving to Citi Field. My concern obviously would be with his long ball tendencies I would try to minimize the number of times he needs to pitch @ Philly.
Correct.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Quote:
named new GM of the Rays, explains (at least in part) why he passed on the Mets GM job.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
Quote:
In comment 15497552 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
named new GM of the Rays, explains (at least in part) why he passed on the Mets GM job.
so with hindsight when we look back at those who were rumored for the PBO level:
Stearns - denied
Arnold - denied/extended
Gomes - promoted/presumably extended (LAD denied last year, maybe again?)
Bendix - promoted/presumably extended
Byrnes - never really rumored they asked. not interested or denied?
Theo - declined interview
Beane - declined interview
Harris - declined interview
Girsch - declined interview
anyone I missed?
Blue Jays declined on Shapiro. Jean Afterman declined interview, Raquel Ferreira declined interview. I think that's it, could be forgetting somebody
The Afterman/Ferreira/Adler/Mejdal group is hard to evaluate because it's probably the more likely group to contain the false rumors Law alleged, and had any of them interviewed I'd imagine it would have been unlikely for them to beat out Eppler. Are they probably smart execs and could they be good choices? Maybe. But like Cromie they are all far riskier hires then Eppler.
In a way with Cohen's money you may not need a GM with the most genius/creative strategy a la TB. Signing Scherzer is as uncreative of a move as there is. So imo there's a lot of value in simply having a credible, competent, experienced leader.
And giving that person the resources to hire/attract/homegrow as many young creative geniuses under him in the FO as possible.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I don't think Scherzer was signing with any org he didn't believe in and selling that would have been a pretty tall task (imo) for any first time GM in his/hers first weeks on the job. I'm not sure Scherzer signs without those black friday moves either, and those moves required the organization acted quickly/decisively/confidently, which are tough things to do as a rookie in anything. Not impossible but tough.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
I'm not saying she (or any of them) were specifically the fake name, there's no way for us to know. Just that I think it's more likely that group which was basically the 3rd tier of the search included whoever Law spoke to that was never actually contacted.
The tier 1 people were all publicly known.
Tier 2 were all the obvious candidates and most of the activity around them was been public (formal interview requests / denials / promotions)
The tier 3 crew was a lot more unknown. Some were probably real some probably weren't.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
@JonHeyman
Hear Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro made a great impression with Mets higherups. Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviews tonight and Buck Showalter tomorrow. Showalter seems like safe choice due to successful MLB track record but hear it’s more “divided” than fans/media expect.
The 5 better-
deGrom
Hendriks
Burnes
Clase
Loasaiga
DOMINANT.
I didn't say anything about "overpaying" but none of the guys they signed were "surprise" names. In fact, most viewed Canha as a very likely target once Conforto turned down the QO and many (myself included) thought Marte would be a great fit (especially over Castellanos). Without seeing how they perform, simply outbidding teams for "good" players is probably the easiest part of the job.
the fact that they were obvious names is my point. if you have the biggest spending owner you don't necessarily need to be an overly creative genius who reinvents the wheel beyond the obvious.
you need to be credible to sell agents/players.
and competent to act quickly/effectively.
I think Eppler's skill set has appeared to be a very good fit for what ended up taking place over his first month. Others may have had a similar skill set or the exact same plan but none had the experience of having done it for real like he had so it's uncertain whether or not they would have been able to execute. Eppler has been hitting his free throws down the stretch when it's mattered - which isn't nothing.
Fangraphs projected Marte to get between 2 for 50 and 4 for 72, he got 4 for 78
Canha between 2 for 20 and 2 for 30, he got 26.5
Escobar 1 for 10 and 2 for 20, he got... 2 for 20
So far these have been "thanks to Cohen's wallet" moves, that's great they can do that but nothing has really displayed Eppler's roster building just yet.
MLBTR has been the most accurate with their projections thus far.
They projected the players the Mets signed to get $244m.
The Mets signed those players for $254.5m for the exact number of years projected.
by comparison Semien got 1 more year and +$37m more in total all by himself from Tex. Seager was +$20m. Baez +$40m.
@MarkCHealey
·
22m
FWIW, I hear Alderson favors Quatraro, which makes him my least favorite choice of the three. I want a manager who will have a voice and isn't afraid to push back when it's appropriate.
Jim BowdenBaseball
@JimBowdenGM
·
28m
If #Mets decide to hire a manager & put too much emphasis on the interviews.. it might not bode well for Buck Showalter. However, if the #Mets look hard at all the factors given their present situation including ownership immediate expectations than Showalter is the right hire.
@timbhealey
·
24s
The verdict in Zack Scott’s drunk-driving case, scheduled for Thursday, was postponed until January because he contracted COVID-19.