Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
13m
.@martinonyc
says Bob Geren will b interviewed for #Mets manager. My take: Of all the potential hires, this would be the very worst. Nice guy, suits & media speak highly of him. I say he's tactically inept, esp w BP. If he gets gig, Alderson made the call. This cannot stand.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
·
9m
.@MetsDaddy2013
"Players did not trust Geren to do what managers do. He lost the team and could not get it back, and Beane had to fire him ... no one defended Geren. Not one A's player defended him. No one from other organizations defended him."
Not sure that players should be the guiding force in picking a mgr.
That was the worst since the 1962 Mets. (Detroit also won only 47 a year later).
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Cobb posted a 4.90 era, Bundy 5.45, Bundy stunk the following year without Buck as well (4.73 FIP), Cobb pitched 3 games (11 era) and then got her in 2019.
Trumbo 0.3 fWAR in 2018, Jones 0.6 (played one more season NEGATIVE fWAR and then headed to Japan). That was a really bad team.
RE: Not sure that players should be the guiding force in picking a mgr.
But Showalter seems like the type of man to build a program up.
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Maybe the '95 yankee team that lost to Seattle on the famous Griffey slide? But that was a team in transition. Mariano was pre-breakout, still had Mattingly, strike shortened year, etc.
He won 100 games in '99 with Arizona in their 2nd year of existence. That was a year before Schilling, who got acquired in July of his last year there then eventually became the 2nd team to win a WS the year after Buck left in '01.
In Baltimore he inherited a 64 win team and 2 years later had them on a streak of 5 years in a row above 80 (3x in the playoffs).
He's won manager of the year 3x each with a different team and led each of NYY, TEX, and BAL to big turnarounds. Ironically his 100 win year with the 2nd year expansion team he came in 4th.
In a quirk he seems to always win manager of the year on the '4 years. So look out in 2024.
Manager of the Year Voting
1993 AL Manager of the Year (2nd) 1994 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
1995 AL Manager of the Year (4th)
1999 NL Manager of the Year (4th) 2004 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2012 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
2013 AL Manager of the Year (7th) 2014 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2016 AL Manager of the Year (3rd)
If you are Cohen (or any of us) Buck and Bochy are by far the 2 most accomplished options in this search. So I can understand him having a preference for the best track record of success. They are the obvious choices and to choose based on something else other than pure track record I'd also want my baseball people to make a very compelling case as to why to trust a first timer.
be completely wrong but I get the feeling Bochy is an extreme long shot. Maybe his history with Sandy? Maybe he's made clear he's not that eager to return (but will listen) who knows? But he's name isn't being mentioned as much as you'd think given 3 rings.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
I think he will fare much better in a second job, as most managers do. He was a highly regarded bench coach and Triple A manager. Just didn’t quite click as big league manager the first time around.
be completely wrong but I get the feeling Bochy is an extreme long shot. Maybe his history with Sandy? Maybe he's made clear he's not that eager to return (but will listen) who knows? But he's name isn't being mentioned as much as you'd think given 3 rings.
it could be as simple as a guy you ask because he's won 3 WS in his has 9 years managing but is retired for a reason.
Having interest in him is probably an obvious leave no stone unturned, but like Beane a longshot that he's looking for something so high profile when he's been taking steps away from the game.
Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
RE: Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
Replying to
@WexlerRules
He’s a good baseball man. I suspect he will not be as overwhelmed as maybe he was the first time around.
RE: RE: Could this thread (or something similar) be stickied pr pinned?
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
"Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
Connolly (he was effusive in his praise of Showalter, so the note below (to me) holds even more weight in that it does imply Showalter will have to overcome this perception AND that Showalter claiming he's changed his tune on analytics is somewhat (or could be) contrived)
"What I found illuminating was Showalter started that campaign in the last month or so of the 2018 season. After years of pointing out that “analytics” doesn’t show a specific ability or little noticed scenario, Showalter in September began talking, unprompted, about the involvement of analytics in the way his staff picks up things or conducts business, even giving credit once to Duquette’s analytics department.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
TB: How important is it early in a tenure to establish your credibility? How'd you go about that?
BS: If you're trying to establish credibility, you're not going to establish credibility. You get credibility from having good players. It's not really complicated. We don't have much impact. You can have an impact negatively, but it's about how good your players are—and mostly your pitching.
And you don't set the—the word that's overused is culture or environment. You don't set it; the players set it. Now you might set it by trying to surround yourself with certain players. The players set that. Some of the front offices today don't recognize they're just putting together 25 guys by analytics. There's a place for that and I embrace it. But the teams that are the most successful organizationally are the ones that mesh the two, where you get really good statistical analysis and really good—I don't want to say makeup, you know what I'm trying to say. If those things match up, then you've got a real good player.
dmm i'll see if i can find it but Buck was on MLBN after eppler hiring
and he talked a lot about how Eppler is a good partner to people within an organization and bridges the collaboration between different groups etc.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
RE: dmm i'll see if i can find it but Buck was on MLBN after eppler hiring
and he talked a lot about how Eppler is a good partner to people within an organization and bridges the collaboration between different groups etc.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
I like Buck and I'd be happy if they hired him but Connolly made pretty clear that Buck knows how to play the room and says what he thinks should be said so I wouldn't take too much from what he says about Eppler. Somebody he knows personally, wanted to hire him with LAA (or consider) and is the GM of a NY team.
I noted, Connolly called Showalter the best manager he's been around, so if you accept that, I think you can also accept the flip side of 1. Suddenly increasing his comments on analytics when it was clear he was viewed as out of date (and soon out of a job) 2. He'd have to accept these "bean counters" would in fact be a major part of a managers job in 2022.
Mike DiGiovanna
@MikeDiGiovanna
Replying to
@WexlerRules
and
@Mets
I wasn't the Angels beat writer in 2019 so wasn't around team enough to probably know ... there were obviously some things going on there that he was unaware of, had no control over, and maybe he should have. Once Skaggs died, team fell apart, so tough to judge him after that.
I noted, Connolly called Showalter the best manager he's been around, so if you accept that, I think you can also accept the flip side of 1. Suddenly increasing his comments on analytics when it was clear he was viewed as out of date (and soon out of a job) 2. He'd have to accept these "bean counters" would in fact be a major part of a managers job in 2022.
I don't think being resistant to some analytics makes someone anti-analytics. skepticism can be healthy - and I thought buck did a good job explaining his skepticism in the interview you posted yesterday.
I agree with him 100% that you can't just accept war or RC or any of the defensive metrics or any cumulative stat on it's face without questioning the inputs and understanding what those stats are telling you.
I was (am) 100% against the anti-BA trend that was popular several years ago and also against the anti-defense trend a few years ago. I'm not sure how broad those arguments were around the game vs. justifications some met fans were using to defend players on the mets at the time like Bruce/Duda/etc but i completely agree with buck that analytics can be bent to any narrative if you don't keep them in context.
ex. Lucas Duda's career RC as a Met is likely significantly higher than a very long list of players I would take over him even if we were just talking offensively (so taking position and defensive impact out of the equation). He was the perfect case study on the limits of the true 3 outcome player.
that's a bit different than this (from somebody who actually covered the team)
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
Dan didn't 1 of the comments above say BAL only had 1 analytics person
that's a bit different than this (from somebody who actually covered the team)
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
if so and Baltimore didn't invest in a quality analytics team, doesn't that make the position that much more justifiable?
on a quick look it seems Baltimore has only had 1 payroll in the top half of baseball in the last decade, and very many at the bottom, so it stands to reason that they were not investing the way the teams who are really good at analytics were.
don't think the Mets employee a single ex-player in their analytics department, does that mean Showalter won't listen to them? Billy Eppler pitched 3.2 college innings, does that somehow make his opinions more valid? If you believe Duquette, Showalter flat out ignored the analytics department. I'm reading/taking in all sides of this, you seem to be so sure you want Buck you're formulating scenarios. If you believe Duquette, this is rather damning
Quote:
In surprising comments from Duquette to The Athletic, he lashed out at Showalter’s supposed reluctance to use analytics.
“The question is why did (Wade) Miley, Edwin Jackson, (Jeremy) Hellickson, (Kevin) Gausman, Britton, (Brad) Brach and (Vidal) Nuño pitch more effectively with other clubs than with the O’s and, conversely, what made (Alex) Cobb and (Andrew) Cashner less effective with the O’s in 2018 than they were in 2017? And why are the agents calling the front office to intercede, to request the club implement a more analytical approach with the major-league field staff?” Duquette said.
The difference in his numbers — from -18 DRS and -7.2 UZR with the 115-loss Orioles to +6 and +0.8 with the 92-win Dodgers — also reveal one of the fissures between two top officials recently fired by Baltimore, executive vice-president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
This is a dark picture of the team and it’s been painted by the guy who was supposed to have been in charge. If agents were really calling up Duquette to plead on behalf of their clients for a better analytical approach from the team, then everyone who was responsible for things reaching that point should have been fired long ago.
If the front office actually had a good approach to analytics and the field staff was ignoring it, the firings should have wiped out the entire coaching staff immediately. This is the first that we have heard of a specific charge like this that I know of, but as mentioned before, this is the first time the people involved don’t have to be nice to one another publicly.
That pitchers who have been here with the Orioles have then gone on to succeed elsewhere is not in doubt. The question left to be resolved is whether there was something that the Orioles were doing, or not doing, that led to the pitchers Duquette named not performing as well here as they had done elsewhere.
Wade Miley presents the most extreme and absurd example. You can’t fail much harder than Miley did in Baltimore and still have a big league job. In 43 starts across his two seasons here, Miley posted a 5.75 ERA, averaging fewer than five innings per game started. That included a 2017 season where he led all MLB starting pitchers in WHIP. At the most basic thing a pitcher is supposed to do - keep runners off base - Miley was the number one worst pitcher in the game.
Quote:
This is not the only instance of hearing about a former Oriole changing something small and enjoying greater success elsewhere. Kevin Gausman shifted his position on the rubber after being traded to Atlanta and he pitched better there, at least until the postseason. It seems so small to have made such a huge difference, which doesn’t mean it can’t have made the difference.
Again, I both don't particularly care who they hire and would be completely happy with Showalter but it sure seems like a valid concern that he will have to explain.
DMM... to me those quotes imply that Duquette hired a lousy staff that Buck was interested in listening too. Not that he doesn't believe in analytics. None of those pitchers listed suddenly became superstars immediately upon leaving the Orioles/Buck.
DMM... to me those quotes imply that Duquette hired a lousy staff that Buck was interested in listening too. Not that he doesn't believe in analytics. None of those pitchers listed suddenly became superstars immediately upon leaving the Orioles/Buck.
So Connolly noting Buck will have to show he's willing to become "modern" or he'll have trouble finding a job don't hold any water for you? An actual beat writer who praised Buck overall? I find that strange to be honest.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
the analytics staff with the Mets will 100% be "bean counters who never played the game". That's just the way it goes. Ben Zauzmer is as "bean counter who never played the game" as it gets...
"The answer is yes, but their partnership had nothing to do with baseball. Turner and Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers director of athletic development and performance science, recruited Ben to help them with their fantasy football draft. Turner and McDaniel wanted to use Zauzmer as their secret weapon to beat Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers GM from 2015-2018 and now the President of Baseball Ops for the Giants, in their league."
In addition to baseball, Zauzmer is the author of a book, “Oscarmetrics.” The book uses math to predict Oscar winners. Here is a profile on the book from the Harvard Alumni page.
In the profile, Zauzmer had this to say about using analytics in baseball, “It is a game of trying to blend the conclusions we get from mathematical sources with non-math information to make the best decisions.”
I'm trying to say is, Connolly covered both Buck and Duquette, grew to know both men, praised Showalter substantially and still came away with the idea that Showalter made claims he was open to analytics because he saw the writing on the wall and was adverse to listening to non-players. I think that's what you call an "educated opinion".
I'm trying to say is, Connolly covered both Buck and Duquette, grew to know both men, praised Showalter substantially and still came away with the idea that Showalter made claims he was open to analytics because he saw the writing on the wall and was adverse to listening to non-players. I think that's what you call an "educated opinion".
Communication and being open to new ways of thinking are both extremely important. But it's hard to get the idea that Showalter is really open when he's saying things like this after last week's wild 10-7 win over the Braves in 15 innings:
Showalter on how to explain quiet game getting crazy: “Well, the launch angles ... No, that’s baseball. That’s why you don’t play it on a computer and it’s not purely analytical. That’s why people come, because things happen that aren’t supposed to happen on paper. And there’s three outs in an inning and everybody gets their turn. You can’t hand the ball to your best shooter or your best running back. You have to wait your turn in the batting order. It’s such a team game and there’s just so much ...
No one said anything to Showalter about launch angles. It's also like it's become his job to destroy straw men at arbitrary times.
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
“I can’t tell you how few people will score on that ball,” Showalter said, “and that’s a baseball player, that’s a lead, that’s a secondary lead, that’s anticipation of the swing through the zone. He’s a third base coach’s dream. In fact, we’re going to show it in the next advance meeting.
“So where does that show up in evaluation or analytics? His anticipation, his baseball player skills. That is a really hard ball to score on.
There are, in fact, baserunning metrics that take into account the ability to get a great read and take an extra base. Advanced analytical departments in organizations can do even better than what is publicly available for identifying how well a player performs on the basepaths. Statcast can also be used to show leads, secondary leads, and how baserunners respond to a ball in flight. But OK, sure, no single statistic is completely perfect or tells the whole story.
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
No. That's not what the job of analytics are. You don't go with your gut and hope the numbers back them up, you receive the data and use the data to form your opinion. It's not a "back up plan" it's supposed to be used to help put you in best position to win.
The main concerns about Showalter, 65, are that he’s too old and won’t adapt to new-age analytics. That could be true. But it’s impossible to know, as the Orioles didn’t even have an analytics department when he was there (they had a singular analyst and no international scouting presence). The Mets have made an effort to build up their analytics and information department to one that’s as robust as nearly any in baseball.
some of her other quotes from this article for those not subscribed:
Quote:
As a beat writer who covered that team closely during that stretch, I can say the most obvious difference with the Orioles was the culture. Showalter added an instant air of accountability, demanding that the team played hard and people were held to high standards. More than once, players who tried to shirk the media were instead led into Showalter’s office, where he made them face the music. Players spoke about how, win or lose, they knew they weren’t going to get outmaneuvered. Showalter would routinely quiz guys in the dugout about in-game decisions or ask reporters in his office for their thoughts. Preparation isn’t just a part of the job. It’s an obsession.
quotes like that in combination with the FG interview you posted all lead towards thinking this isn't someone set in his ways who just ignores data out of hand.
Quote:
But can the Mets afford to gamble on another new manager after whiffing on back-to-back tries? Can they gamble on how Ausmus will handle New York’s throng of media, the first long losing streak and the columns calling for his job? Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever.
I think that last sentence is similar to what your conveying which I think is fair - any manager needs to prove they are able to keep up with new components of the job.
I just think that's different then presenting something from his past as evidence that he's been averse to that. As she notes, if the orioles barely had an analytics team how is it at all possible to understand how Buck utilizes analytics? Ghiroli: Buck Showalter should be the New York Mets’ next manager - ( New Window )
is nearly word for word what Connolly was suggesting (and what I think is fair)
"Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that [bv]will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics[/b]. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever."
I don't care about his age AT ALL, he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave. In that way Geren (who I don't care for) has "proven" he can do it, because the Dodgers are the epitome of the modern franchise. He will be the face of the team, taking the brunt of the media etc for "his" decisions, when often times they will be formulated by others.
you posted is a fair assessment. I'm just saying those other quotes imply that Duquette did a poor job hiring the analytics dept. Not that Buck wasn't interested in it.
Connolly said he's not sure if Buck was smart enough to read the room and BS or if he was sincere.
I choose to believe Buck was sincere and Duquette was poor at his job.
That said there's only one way to find out which one of those things is correct. Talk to him and find out.
I'm leaning Buck because he's proven he can manage here and he's a winner. But he may be a man out of time if the Mets grand design is running baseball through the numbers team. You can't have two half-measures; a big analytics team and a manager that plays lip service to the entire concept. It won't work.
I don't mind having a manger who is not all in on analytics
Analytics are important and have their place. But Zack Scott and Quakenbaum went full bore on analytics and it was a disaster.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
Quattlebaum was a minor league hire forced into a role he wasn't equipped for. He was a scapegoat (and has since been reassigned). The Mets have made over 30 hires to the analytics department (and have 5+ job openings up on fangraphs), they aren't going to hire a manager who wants to "do his own thing". This team/organization is going to be built from the analytics side up. That much is clear.
SF Giants have 16 coaches on staff. Why? Because they have both "regular" roles like pitching coach and then somebody like Brian Bannister as "director of pitching" here is his linked in (in part)
They don't have 1 or even 2 hitting coaches, they have...a hitting coach, an assistant hitting coach AND a director hitting.
"While the Giants’ coaches are fluent in analytics and new-age ways of thinking, they take a tailor-made approach to each player, maintaining open lines of communication to ensure that they’re putting everyone in the best position to succeed.
“We have to give a lot of credit to our staff in terms of the preparation and the way that they make you feel before you go into that at-bat,” outfielder Mike Yastrzemski said. “The hitting coaches give you every detail of information that they know that you need. We talked about analytics earlier, but bringing in the human aspect [is something] they have done so well. Letting us let them know what we like to know. They got to the point where they don't even need to ask us what information we want. They already know it ahead of time.”
This is where the game is and where it's headed. Their manager (Gabe Kapler) was an innovator in improving player diets etc etc. These "new age" franchises, Rays, Giants, Dodgers etc are where the game is. Even AA said his time with the Dodgers opened his eyes to how behind he was in analytics.
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
“It was eye-opening for me,” Anthopoulos said of the Dodgers’ use of analytics and as much data as available, boiled down for players to consume if they so chose. “Look, it’s not a panacea for anything. You still need great players and obviously Los Angeles has great players and great acquisitions. Most of all, this stuff, it’s up to the players. Chris Taylor made a lot of great changes in L.A.; he made those changes. He wanted to do that, he had a willingness to do it.”
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
I think it's safe to suggest somebody like Don Kelly (who just retired) in 2017 is likely more in tune with the modern push towards analytics than Buck Showalter. So those sorts of questions are less relevant. Dusty Baker flat out noted Espada would "help" him with understanding some of the data coming from the FO/analytics side, I'd guess very little of Espada's interview would be about his ability to do this.
@MarkCHealey
·
13m
.@martinonyc
says Bob Geren will b interviewed for #Mets manager. My take: Of all the potential hires, this would be the very worst. Nice guy, suits & media speak highly of him. I say he's tactically inept, esp w BP. If he gets gig, Alderson made the call. This cannot stand.
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Not defending Showalter but they won 54 the following season, to give an idea of the talent on that team.
@MarkCHealey
·
9m
.@MetsDaddy2013
"Players did not trust Geren to do what managers do. He lost the team and could not get it back, and Beane had to fire him ... no one defended Geren. Not one A's player defended him. No one from other organizations defended him."
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Good question. I mean how did THIS team win 96 games?
Link - ( New Window )
Orioles had a bad roster. But the worst roster in 56 years?
Machado, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb, and Dylan Bundy were on that team.
Cobb posted a 4.90 era, Bundy 5.45, Bundy stunk the following year without Buck as well (4.73 FIP), Cobb pitched 3 games (11 era) and then got her in 2019.
Trumbo 0.3 fWAR in 2018, Jones 0.6 (played one more season NEGATIVE fWAR and then headed to Japan). That was a really bad team.
When was the last time he ran a team with this type of talent on it?
Maybe the '95 yankee team that lost to Seattle on the famous Griffey slide? But that was a team in transition. Mariano was pre-breakout, still had Mattingly, strike shortened year, etc.
He won 100 games in '99 with Arizona in their 2nd year of existence. That was a year before Schilling, who got acquired in July of his last year there then eventually became the 2nd team to win a WS the year after Buck left in '01.
In Baltimore he inherited a 64 win team and 2 years later had them on a streak of 5 years in a row above 80 (3x in the playoffs).
He's won manager of the year 3x each with a different team and led each of NYY, TEX, and BAL to big turnarounds. Ironically his 100 win year with the 2nd year expansion team he came in 4th.
In a quirk he seems to always win manager of the year on the '4 years. So look out in 2024.
Manager of the Year Voting
1993 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
1994 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
1995 AL Manager of the Year (4th)
1999 NL Manager of the Year (4th)
2004 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2012 AL Manager of the Year (2nd)
2013 AL Manager of the Year (7th)
2014 AL Manager of the Year (1st)
2016 AL Manager of the Year (3rd)
If you are Cohen (or any of us) Buck and Bochy are by far the 2 most accomplished options in this search. So I can understand him having a preference for the best track record of success. They are the obvious choices and to choose based on something else other than pure track record I'd also want my baseball people to make a very compelling case as to why to trust a first timer.
Susan Slusser
@susanslusser
·
1m
Replying to
@WexlerRules
I think he will fare much better in a second job, as most managers do. He was a highly regarded bench coach and Triple A manager. Just didn’t quite click as big league manager the first time around.
@SotoC803
·
3m
Looks like #Mets top prospect SS Ronny Mauricio's time in the #LIDOM is done.
No longer on the active roster for the Tigres del Licey.
If so, he finishes the winter....
.244 AVG/.644 OPS, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
@AnthonyDiComo
A strong Sandy Alderson connection here, as the Mets' team president has hired Bob Geren once before.
it could be as simple as a guy you ask because he's won 3 WS in his has 9 years managing but is retired for a reason.
Having interest in him is probably an obvious leave no stone unturned, but like Beane a longshot that he's looking for something so high profile when he's been taking steps away from the game.
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
@susanslusser
Replying to
@WexlerRules
He’s a good baseball man. I suspect he will not be as overwhelmed as maybe he was the first time around.
Quote:
So that I, or we, always have one central location to look for Met's news etc?
I apologize if this suggestion/question is against the rules or dumb.
Thanks, Dennis
Dennis at the top of the main page under "Corner Forum" you will see non-football threads. If you click on (or bookmark that) all football threads will "disappear" and you'll likely easily be able to find Mets threads.
Thanks, Dan.
"Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
Connolly (he was effusive in his praise of Showalter, so the note below (to me) holds even more weight in that it does imply Showalter will have to overcome this perception AND that Showalter claiming he's changed his tune on analytics is somewhat (or could be) contrived)
"What I found illuminating was Showalter started that campaign in the last month or so of the 2018 season. After years of pointing out that “analytics” doesn’t show a specific ability or little noticed scenario, Showalter in September began talking, unprompted, about the involvement of analytics in the way his staff picks up things or conducts business, even giving credit once to Duquette’s analytics department.
To me, it was again the brilliant mind of Showalter at work. The handwriting on the wall said Showalter would be gone, but he wasn’t leaving without publicly expressing his understanding of analytics. “I’m not a dinosaur” was the underlying message of those soliloquies and, later, his comments to Rosenthal.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
BS: If you're trying to establish credibility, you're not going to establish credibility. You get credibility from having good players. It's not really complicated. We don't have much impact. You can have an impact negatively, but it's about how good your players are—and mostly your pitching.
And you don't set the—the word that's overused is culture or environment. You don't set it; the players set it. Now you might set it by trying to surround yourself with certain players. The players set that. Some of the front offices today don't recognize they're just putting together 25 guys by analytics. There's a place for that and I embrace it. But the teams that are the most successful organizationally are the ones that mesh the two, where you get really good statistical analysis and really good—I don't want to say makeup, you know what I'm trying to say. If those things match up, then you've got a real good player.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
now obviously there's a lot of connections between the 2 and he was almost certainly already conscious of the fact that he could be a very prominent candidate in the managerial search - so it could have been active politic'ing.
but bottomline I think Eppler has been around the block with 3 different veteran managers (2 HOFers), likely has a lot of specific insight into Buck through shared colleagues, and presumably did his due diligence on him a couple years ago too when he interviewed at LAA.
If they choose to hire Buck I think they will very much know what they are getting.
I like Buck and I'd be happy if they hired him but Connolly made pretty clear that Buck knows how to play the room and says what he thinks should be said so I wouldn't take too much from what he says about Eppler. Somebody he knows personally, wanted to hire him with LAA (or consider) and is the GM of a NY team.
@MikeDiGiovanna
Replying to
@WexlerRules
and
@Mets
I wasn't the Angels beat writer in 2019 so wasn't around team enough to probably know ... there were obviously some things going on there that he was unaware of, had no control over, and maybe he should have. Once Skaggs died, team fell apart, so tough to judge him after that.
I don't think being resistant to some analytics makes someone anti-analytics. skepticism can be healthy - and I thought buck did a good job explaining his skepticism in the interview you posted yesterday.
I agree with him 100% that you can't just accept war or RC or any of the defensive metrics or any cumulative stat on it's face without questioning the inputs and understanding what those stats are telling you.
I was (am) 100% against the anti-BA trend that was popular several years ago and also against the anti-defense trend a few years ago. I'm not sure how broad those arguments were around the game vs. justifications some met fans were using to defend players on the mets at the time like Bruce/Duda/etc but i completely agree with buck that analytics can be bent to any narrative if you don't keep them in context.
ex. Lucas Duda's career RC as a Met is likely significantly higher than a very long list of players I would take over him even if we were just talking offensively (so taking position and defensive impact out of the equation). He was the perfect case study on the limits of the true 3 outcome player.
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
". I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game."
It implies he might have issue listening to a guy like Zauzmer who didn't play the game.
if so and Baltimore didn't invest in a quality analytics team, doesn't that make the position that much more justifiable?
on a quick look it seems Baltimore has only had 1 payroll in the top half of baseball in the last decade, and very many at the bottom, so it stands to reason that they were not investing the way the teams who are really good at analytics were.
“The question is why did (Wade) Miley, Edwin Jackson, (Jeremy) Hellickson, (Kevin) Gausman, Britton, (Brad) Brach and (Vidal) Nuño pitch more effectively with other clubs than with the O’s and, conversely, what made (Alex) Cobb and (Andrew) Cashner less effective with the O’s in 2018 than they were in 2017? And why are the agents calling the front office to intercede, to request the club implement a more analytical approach with the major-league field staff?” Duquette said.
The difference in his numbers — from -18 DRS and -7.2 UZR with the 115-loss Orioles to +6 and +0.8 with the 92-win Dodgers — also reveal one of the fissures between two top officials recently fired by Baltimore, executive vice-president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
Duquette and other members of his front office believe Machado and other players who left the Orioles benefited from joining teams with managers and coaches who were more receptive to analytics. Showalter and infield instructor Bobby Dickerson dispute that notion, saying they were open to any numbers available to them and willing to put the data to use."
If the front office actually had a good approach to analytics and the field staff was ignoring it, the firings should have wiped out the entire coaching staff immediately. This is the first that we have heard of a specific charge like this that I know of, but as mentioned before, this is the first time the people involved don’t have to be nice to one another publicly.
That pitchers who have been here with the Orioles have then gone on to succeed elsewhere is not in doubt. The question left to be resolved is whether there was something that the Orioles were doing, or not doing, that led to the pitchers Duquette named not performing as well here as they had done elsewhere.
Wade Miley presents the most extreme and absurd example. You can’t fail much harder than Miley did in Baltimore and still have a big league job. In 43 starts across his two seasons here, Miley posted a 5.75 ERA, averaging fewer than five innings per game started. That included a 2017 season where he led all MLB starting pitchers in WHIP. At the most basic thing a pitcher is supposed to do - keep runners off base - Miley was the number one worst pitcher in the game.
Again, I both don't particularly care who they hire and would be completely happy with Showalter but it sure seems like a valid concern that he will have to explain.
So Connolly noting Buck will have to show he's willing to become "modern" or he'll have trouble finding a job don't hold any water for you? An actual beat writer who praised Buck overall? I find that strange to be honest.
Frankly, I do believe Showalter will embrace any information if he thinks it can help him win. The man is uber-prepared, and I don’t think he is averse to analytics. I think he was more averse to Duquette’s secluded analytics department. He wasn’t going to let those specific beancounters, who never played baseball, dictate how he was going to manage a game. And that, to me, is why Showalter may have trouble initially landing another managerial job despite such a tremendous baseball acumen and nearly unparalleled resume. No general manager wants to hire a guy that won’t listen to him – and that’s a perception that Showalter will have to combat."
"The answer is yes, but their partnership had nothing to do with baseball. Turner and Brandon McDaniel, the Dodgers director of athletic development and performance science, recruited Ben to help them with their fantasy football draft. Turner and McDaniel wanted to use Zauzmer as their secret weapon to beat Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers GM from 2015-2018 and now the President of Baseball Ops for the Giants, in their league."
In addition to baseball, Zauzmer is the author of a book, “Oscarmetrics.” The book uses math to predict Oscar winners. Here is a profile on the book from the Harvard Alumni page.
In the profile, Zauzmer had this to say about using analytics in baseball, “It is a game of trying to blend the conclusions we get from mathematical sources with non-math information to make the best decisions.”
*those who never played the game.
Showalter on how to explain quiet game getting crazy: “Well, the launch angles ... No, that’s baseball. That’s why you don’t play it on a computer and it’s not purely analytical. That’s why people come, because things happen that aren’t supposed to happen on paper. And there’s three outs in an inning and everybody gets their turn. You can’t hand the ball to your best shooter or your best running back. You have to wait your turn in the batting order. It’s such a team game and there’s just so much ...
No one said anything to Showalter about launch angles. It's also like it's become his job to destroy straw men at arbitrary times.
Then, while describing a nice read on the basepaths by Adam Jones yesterday, Showalter said this:
“I can’t tell you how few people will score on that ball,” Showalter said, “and that’s a baseball player, that’s a lead, that’s a secondary lead, that’s anticipation of the swing through the zone. He’s a third base coach’s dream. In fact, we’re going to show it in the next advance meeting.
“So where does that show up in evaluation or analytics? His anticipation, his baseball player skills. That is a really hard ball to score on.
There are, in fact, baserunning metrics that take into account the ability to get a great read and take an extra base. Advanced analytical departments in organizations can do even better than what is publicly available for identifying how well a player performs on the basepaths. Statcast can also be used to show leads, secondary leads, and how baserunners respond to a ball in flight. But OK, sure, no single statistic is completely perfect or tells the whole story.
These sort of combative stances against analytics in general sort of made sense during the Orioles' run up until 2017. Showalter's teams were routinely winning games despite the deck being stacked against them, and it was hard to figure out exactly how they were doing it. Perhaps they didn't get enough credit for defying the projections for years and continuing to win.
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me." No, that's not what you want! In some situations, that is fine, but our guts are often wrong. You want to be challenged! You want analytics to tell you that leaving Zach Britton in the bullpen in a must-win game is a mistake (they do). You want them to tell you that it's a mistake to use Jace Peterson or Craig Gentry as a leadoff hitter (they do).
Link - ( New Window )
"I want to verify what my gut is telling me."
No. That's not what the job of analytics are. You don't go with your gut and hope the numbers back them up, you receive the data and use the data to form your opinion. It's not a "back up plan" it's supposed to be used to help put you in best position to win.
some of her other quotes from this article for those not subscribed:
quotes like that in combination with the FG interview you posted all lead towards thinking this isn't someone set in his ways who just ignores data out of hand.
I think that last sentence is similar to what your conveying which I think is fair - any manager needs to prove they are able to keep up with new components of the job.
I just think that's different then presenting something from his past as evidence that he's been averse to that. As she notes, if the orioles barely had an analytics team how is it at all possible to understand how Buck utilizes analytics?
Ghiroli: Buck Showalter should be the New York Mets’ next manager - ( New Window )
"Showalter isn’t perfect, but in several important ways he’s the best candidate for the job. There is risk: His age and the old-school mentality that [bv]will need to learn that managing in today’s game is a cohesive, collaborative process. Showalter will have to prove he can keep up with the new components of the job and incorporate analytics[/b]. But the reward could cement Showalter and Cohen’s legacies in Mets lore forever."
I don't care about his age AT ALL, he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave. In that way Geren (who I don't care for) has "proven" he can do it, because the Dodgers are the epitome of the modern franchise. He will be the face of the team, taking the brunt of the media etc for "his" decisions, when often times they will be formulated by others.
Connolly said he's not sure if Buck was smart enough to read the room and BS or if he was sincere.
I choose to believe Buck was sincere and Duquette was poor at his job.
That said there's only one way to find out which one of those things is correct. Talk to him and find out.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
So I would rather have someone who is balanced between analytics and a more traditional approach.
Plus, analytics work primarily in the regular season. Look at how Friedman's approach backfired with the Dodgers this year in postseason.
Quattlebaum was a minor league hire forced into a role he wasn't equipped for. He was a scapegoat (and has since been reassigned). The Mets have made over 30 hires to the analytics department (and have 5+ job openings up on fangraphs), they aren't going to hire a manager who wants to "do his own thing". This team/organization is going to be built from the analytics side up. That much is clear.
"Predictive analytics, pitch/swing modeling, markerless biomechanical research, visual/cognitive deception, high-speed studies, player optimization/valuation"
They don't have 1 or even 2 hitting coaches, they have...a hitting coach, an assistant hitting coach AND a director hitting.
"While the Giants’ coaches are fluent in analytics and new-age ways of thinking, they take a tailor-made approach to each player, maintaining open lines of communication to ensure that they’re putting everyone in the best position to succeed.
“We have to give a lot of credit to our staff in terms of the preparation and the way that they make you feel before you go into that at-bat,” outfielder Mike Yastrzemski said. “The hitting coaches give you every detail of information that they know that you need. We talked about analytics earlier, but bringing in the human aspect [is something] they have done so well. Letting us let them know what we like to know. They got to the point where they don't even need to ask us what information we want. They already know it ahead of time.”
This is where the game is and where it's headed. Their manager (Gabe Kapler) was an innovator in improving player diets etc etc. These "new age" franchises, Rays, Giants, Dodgers etc are where the game is. Even AA said his time with the Dodgers opened his eyes to how behind he was in analytics.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
Quote:
he will need to prove (during the interview process) that he understands this is a modern era where it's not his say with "back up" from the analytics. It's a full on collaborative effort, where yes those who never played the game will be formulating information he's going to be expected to use and not hand wave.
but this is equally true for every candidate - analytics are going to be a question for every candidate on their list but imo not a blanket concern for any of them. I don't believe there is anyone in baseball left fighting against analytics as a critical organizational component. I'm sure there's a wide range of opinions re how analytics should be used but how the organization chooses to use analytics should flow from Eppler to whoever he chooses as the right manager.
i just think it seems a little hyperbolic to take 1 quote as evidence he previously gave anyone who didn't play the game the heisman.
I think it's safe to suggest somebody like Don Kelly (who just retired) in 2017 is likely more in tune with the modern push towards analytics than Buck Showalter. So those sorts of questions are less relevant. Dusty Baker flat out noted Espada would "help" him with understanding some of the data coming from the FO/analytics side, I'd guess very little of Espada's interview would be about his ability to do this.