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Draft Picks, projected cap costs and cap space (sorta long)

OlyWABigBlue : 1/10/2022 10:33 am
I was curious to see how bad our situation is in terms of roster, draft picks and available cap space.

For draft pick order, I used tankathon's listed draft order here

For projected cap costs for each pick, I used Sportrac's info here

For projected 2022 cap space, like others, I used that from over the cap here

As this was mostly a data gathering exercise, I had to look at 2021 cap hits of draft picks and then project based on escalations shown at Sportrac. These are the best approximations I could arrive at. It assumes a 12.3% wage increase for 2022 draft picks relative to the 2021 cap charges.

At present, we have 2.06 million of cap space with a projected roster of only 42 players. This does not include draft picks or any other players needed to field a functional roster or practice squad. Yes, it's not ideal.

As a first cut, I looked at what our draft picks will be and what the 2021 cap charges were by draft slot and projected the increase to 2022. This is the reasonable approximation of what our draft class will cost by slot and total:

pardon the formatting, bbi code is not friendly to tables

Draft 2021 Cap 2022 Cap
Pick Cost Cost
5 5603571 6308105
7 4381649 4923163
36 1584802 1780525
67 949473 1066732
80 905606 1017448
109 859951 966154
145 749505 842068
170 733971 824616
182 720038 808962

Total 16488566 18537777

It is pretty clear that we need to free up between 14 and 16 million just to sign our draft picks as slotted. That would bring a roster to 51, still well shy of fielding a full roster as well as practice squad and training camp fodder.

One interesting aspect of the cost of the draft picks is over half (60.5%) of the pojected cap hits of the 2022 draft class is in picks 5 and 7.

The incoming GM has a lot of resources but also some interesting decisions to make on resource allocation. I have no idea who in the current organization has ultimately led us to this point, but we are at juncture we can have some nice things but the habits of the previous FO has made it hard to afford them.

Your mileage may vary.
Are you counting contract cost and cap hit as the same?  
BillT : 1/10/2022 10:38 am : link
If so then the actual cap hit could/would be less than the contract cost. Just wondering.
OlyWABigBlue : 1/10/2022 10:46 am : link
those are just cap hit numbers of yearly guaranteed slary and pro-rated bonus, not total contract at all.
RE: BillT  
BillT : 1/10/2022 10:53 am : link
In comment 15541395 OlyWABigBlue said:
those are just cap hit numbers of yearly guaranteed slary and pro-rated bonus, not total contract at all.

Ok. Thanks. Are the two numbers a range?
The two numbers  
OlyWABigBlue : 1/10/2022 10:55 am : link
are 2021 actuals and 2022 projected per sportstrac.
RE: The two numbers  
BillT : 1/10/2022 10:59 am : link
In comment 15541434 OlyWABigBlue said:
are 2021 actuals and 2022 projected per sportstrac.

Great. Got it. (Finally!)
I was looking at that a few weeks ago  
Pepe LePugh : 1/10/2022 11:02 am : link
Let me add that picks after th third round are actually a bit less than signing/resigning a 2 year vet at league minimum ($890K I think?), so probably won’t affect top 51.
Also, I think year 2 cap hit is about 25% higher than rookie year.

I also started wondering  
Pepe LePugh : 1/10/2022 11:09 am : link
If being cap strapped factored into trade downs last year. Cap hit for #21 much less than #11. Saved a couple mil in 21 and 22.
Definitely think it has to be a consideration for potential trades for upcoming draft.
It will be fascinating to watch  
OlyWABigBlue : 1/10/2022 12:28 pm : link
that the Giants will have to tie up ~ 10 million in cap hits for picks 5 and 7, if they use those picks. Given how low they are going to have to limbo to get within the cap numbers for 2022, along with getting another 15-20 players under contract, I would guess than they'd minimize the 2022 guaranteed salary, up the bonus and kick the can to 2023 for their picks.

Just a wild ass guess, but it looks like they'd have to free up ~25-30 million just to sign picks (as presently slotted) and field a roster at near vet minimum. This is Gettleman's legacy.
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