I might rather give up Mauricio in a trade than Vientos. Not saying I'm eager to dump either, but if they can headline a deal for a cost-controlled SP, I think I would rather give up Mauricio.
I might turn out being wrong, but I think Vientos has a much higher floor, and Mauricio a wider range of outcomes.
was told by a high level prospect evaluator "I'd move Mauricio if they can land a solid/good SP". He thinks Mauricio has a long way to go to be an offensive force at the MLB level. Doesn't think Mauricio makes high level "swing decisions" and acknowledged his upside but said "he's a good not great athlete and the feeling is the 2021 power covered up some pretty glaring flaws. Don't shoot the messenger.
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
was told by a high level prospect evaluator "I'd move Mauricio if they can land a solid/good SP". He thinks Mauricio has a long way to go to be an offensive force at the MLB level. Doesn't think Mauricio makes high level "swing decisions" and acknowledged his upside but said "he's a good not great athlete and the feeling is the 2021 power covered up some pretty glaring flaws. Don't shoot the messenger.
I tend to agree with that evaluation from everything I've read/seen with him. I could see his career going either way. Take out the defensive positions, and he could end up turning into a Chisolm type (with less speed). But I was really critical of the Marlins for the Gallen for Chisolm deal, because I admittedly have a bias against those speed/power players with a questionable hit tool. More times than not those players do not reach their upside.
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
Yeah, it's a pretty loaded top 15 too. Don't have access to BA, but you have Witt, Rutschman, Rodriguez, Grayson Rodriguez, Greene, Torkelson, Baz, Moreno, Davis, Abrams, Luciano, Hunter Greene, Volpe, etc. No shame in Alvarez being anywhere there.
I wouldn't give up any of their better prospects unless it returns
a player who has received CY votes. If that type of player is on the table then I'd consider give up one the top 6-7. I don't like all of those top 6-7 evenly but I do think all of them profile to be worthy impact players. In most cases I think I'd trade Dom before I trade any of these guys. Not mcneil though - he's too valuable/unique of a player. I think i'd give up Mauricio before McNeil.
Alvarez may be on a whole other level from any prospect they've had recently - and they've had some good ones obviously. Seems rightfully untouchable given position.
Baty seems like he will be a lot like Conforto. A solid hitter.
Vientos may be considered riskier than the others but the bat has Alonso upside (he also was never that highly rating by the scouting services until he had that huge final AA/AAA year in the minors).
Mauricio seems a lot like Rosario in that so far he's more tools than production so he might be the one I'd trade. But the tools are loud, he may shift to a position of greater need, and he is still young (entering his A21 year).
Who knows what the 2 SP will be but they simply can't afford to trade any good arms in the system right now.
Not sure if internally they'd consider either of Ramirez or Dominguez in that group.
If Alvarez continues this trajectory it wouldn't surprise me if he is #1 on 2023 lists. Top 5 at worst.
I've seen him on top 5 on some lists. A lot of it's subjective. Alvarez has 0 speed, and a bad body. Don't get me wrong, I am excited about him, and consider him to be untouchable (save for a Soto type), but a lot of those prospect rankings favor more toolsy players. I've found BA does a lot. Alvarez has 0 speed, and has struggled some with his defense (though it is obviously early on that)
inside information but Seidler has been hinting the BP list will be high on Alvarez/Baty but major ?? regarding Mauricio's hit tool.
To add to that, the list is made by the entire staff of BP, I know Eric doesn't care for Seidler/thinks he's a hater so just clarifying that he's simply hinting what might be in tomorrow's piece/list.
the Mets prospect rankings after the upcoming draft. Between the two international OFs, the two 1st rounders, and the likely 3 2nd rounders/comp picks (assumes Conforto signs elsewhere), their top prospect rankings should start looking a whole lot better.
that's his job so presumably he spends a good deal of his time doing that.
I think he has zero credibility on pretty much every other narrative he drives about the mets org, which are mostly in areas in that have little to do with his job.
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
a pay wall, but is there anywhere it's been published freely?
If not, curious about if there are any ex-Mets prospects on the list.
Also curious on the top 25. if anyone can share.
thank you in advance.
I suspect the only ex-Mets prospect you will find on there is SWR. I have not found anything on where he is ranked, though have seen him around 55-60 on others.
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
Cubs have 2 on the list, per Dan. PCA is about their 5th best prospect, so won't be on there. Kelenic graduated. Wolf/Greene aren't going to be on any top 100 prospect lists
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
Kelenic graduated, PCA didn't make it (the Cubs had 3). SWR had an era near 6 this year and also did not make it.
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.
I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.
I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?
Yes. That was a college heavy top of the draft for the Mets and the feeling was Clarke might be a guy they would be able to throw money at vs. his commitment to CS Northridge. 2 of his cousins are pro players (The Naylor brothers)
they took 2 HS players (Kelenic/SWR) over their first 20 picks. Again, not bitching about Clarke, just saw his name pop up as a guy who could rise up lists quickly.
they took 2 HS players (Kelenic/SWR) over their first 20 picks. Again, not bitching about Clarke, just saw his name pop up as a guy who could rise up lists quickly.
Not one to complain about 4th round MLB draft picks, but Clarke certainly does seem more interesting than Schwartz. They could have had him in the 4th in the last draft.
It seems to me he rose in some rankings because of the high exit velocity he exhibited.
In other words, he is very projectable according to advanced analytics.
His numbers at AA were fine but nothing exceptional.
So, it makes me think some publications are a little more old school than others. They consult analytics but still depend heavily on numbers and eyeball judgments.
video on new OF IFA signing Simon Juan Link - ( New Window )
I've seen comps of him to Springer. We could only get so lucky. Both he and Fanas are reportedly five-tool players, so they certainly look like interesting signings.
think all 3 rankings are completely fair and I suspect Baty and Mauricio will be a little higher on BP's list but the same 3 names roughly in the same "area".
curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high
Juan Uribe: "Several teams have shown interest in my son, but I would like him to sign with the White Sox because he was born and raised in Chicago and I played for them for five seasons. I love White Sox fans."
curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high
just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.
It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high
just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.
It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.
JD Davis was a 3rd round pick, hit throughout college, .890 OPS in the minors but because he was viewed as a likely 1B/DH (despite an arm good enough to pitch) never cracked BA's list.
.292/.365/.526 career minor league hitter (2.94 era in college over 36 appearances, I wonder why they don't consider him a potential "2 way" guy even if the pitching is as a mop up type.
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
Link to full list link - ( New Window )
There is concern that despite excellent exit velocities, Baty's swing isn't conducive to really tapping into his premium power. Seidler said he thinks Baty's "lift" issues are in part due to his approach at the plate
"Fairly common, not easy to overcome but not impossible. Vlad Jr. ran MLB groundball rates nearly this high until this year. Baty’s swing is geared for more loft than he’s shown so far…I think a chunk of it is approach based with him"
It reminded me I have been meaning to ask you DMM, how would you rank the three top arms they took this year? Ziegler (2nd), Hamel (3rd) and Scott (4th). I know Hamel and Scott are college arms and should should have similar projections through the system that Orze went through.
I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.
Sorry, Scott was in the (5th), Schwartz was the 4th rounder
It reminded me I have been meaning to ask you DMM, how would you rank the three top arms they took this year? Ziegler (2nd), Hamel (3rd) and Scott (4th). I know Hamel and Scott are college arms and should should have similar projections through the system that Orze went through.
I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.
I could lie and act like I know much about Ziegler outside of the public scouting but a large portion of his draft helium came in the form of workouts where his velocity apparently was sitting more in the mid-90's range vs. the low 90's it sat previously. He's a smallish RH from Canada so he's behind the 8-ball BUT those in the know like the live arm, clean delivery and makings of a plus slider. Odds are it's a RP profile but who knows?
Hamel almost certainly was an "analytics dept" pick. Teams that leaned more heavily on their analytics dept vs. pure scouting liked Hamel far more than scouting based teams. All 3 of his pitches have plus spin. He's also already 23 in March. I think there is a real chance he's a top 8-10 prospect in the system come this time next year and I'd probably rank him no lower than 4th in terms of SP (Allan, Ginn and then Ziegler/Hamel) toss-up. I'd probably lean towards Hamel even with the age difference.
Scott is an interesting one. Personally, I'd like to see them allow him to start but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards so he's 95-98 with a good, sometimes plus slider. They haven't traditionally done well with college pick relievers so "wait and see".
You are the man, thank you! Yeah Ziegler was a real enigma and can't find much on him outside of like you said some of the scouting reports. Kind of expected with Hamel and Scott, hopefully they move up quickly. Scott more so because of his arm and potentially being utilized out of the pen!
That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.
You are the man, thank you! Yeah Ziegler was a real enigma and can't find much on him outside of like you said some of the scouting reports. Kind of expected with Hamel and Scott, hopefully they move up quickly. Scott more so because of his arm and potentially being utilized out of the pen!
That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.
Any time. Ziegler is something of a mystery even to the scouting community for a variety of reasons (Covid, Canada, pop-up velocity etc)
Joseph Langan
@JosephLangan2
Ronny Mauricio took a significant hit on @BaseballAmerica
’s top 100 prospects list. Moving from number 65 in the pre-2021 ranking to number 92 in the pre-2022 ranking. The one main reason, pitch selection. 2022 will be a critical year for Mauricio and his future with the Mets.
He is still a top 100 prospect, but once you are in the top 100, the microscope gets a little larger. I don't remember seeing the reason, but didn't he leave the winter league early and was hitting like crap?
I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.
He is still a top 100 prospect, but once you are in the top 100, the microscope gets a little larger. I don't remember seeing the reason, but didn't he leave the winter league early and was hitting like crap?
I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.
Mauricio held his own given his age in winter ball (.244/.277/.367 2 homers, 3 walks 21 k's) but was eventually cut from the team. Keep in mind, they take these games very seriously and he was the youngest player on the team. 2nd youngest regular was 23. Mauricio has a low floor and high ceiling, the gap is far larger than their other top tier prospects (I'm not going to include Matt Allan because major surgery/yet to pitch... nearly impossible to judge)
for Orze. I'd bet he sees Queens this year... after 3 bouts of cancer. Amazing.
So Orze is expected to be a reliever? For some reason, I thought he would be stretched out as a SP. Might be thinking of someone else, or mistaken.
Orze has been viewed as a RP since he was drafted. Only 4 starts in college (in part due to illness) but used as a short man as a pro and no indication they intend to change that. I've heard Christian Scott suggested as a potential SP but not from anybody connected with the team.
Martino the Mets blocked the Phillies from talking to Zauzmer and per Sherman the Mets had considered Jason Lefkowitz as assistant hitting coach but he won't be the hire.
Martino the Mets blocked the Phillies from talking to Zauzmer and per Sherman the Mets had considered Jason Lefkowitz as assistant hitting coach but he won't be the hire.
the Stearns rumors will probably never go away until he signs his next deal but it wouldn't shock me if things go well if Eppler gets promoted up to President and Zauzmer goes up to GM. Something like that was clearly the intent with Porter and Scott last year so I guess we learned from that how quickly things can change but I'm not so sure Stearns comes into play again if things go better this time around.
Franco of MLBTR doesn't think the Mets would move McNeil for Lauer but maybe JDD for Lauer and a smaller piece. I'd 100% do JDD and a secondary small piece for Lauer and Suter or Cousins.
Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder.
FG says he has 1 option left and if so he'd fit perfectly with Megill/Peterson and maybe Trevor Williams as depth arms. No way for McNeil though. Low velocity flyball pitcher with a .249 BABIP despite below average exit velocities against seems ripe for some overall regression.
FG says he has 1 option left and if so he'd fit perfectly with Megill/Peterson and maybe Trevor Williams as depth arms. No way for McNeil though. Low velocity flyball pitcher with a .249 BABIP despite below average exit velocities against seems ripe for some overall regression.
To be clear I’m 100% agreeing with you but to add Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder. If Peterson did that (they are the same age) he’s be deemed “untouchable” by many. Would love to somehow land both Lauer and Suter or Cousins but Lauer would be a nice grab either way
think trade discussions are privately happening among teams so when the lockout ends it will be like a trade deadline/opening of free agency bonanza trying to get shit done before spring training?
think trade discussions are privately happening among teams so when the lockout ends it will be like a trade deadline/opening of free agency bonanza trying to get shit done before spring training?
Yes - but the trade market will be intertwined with FA though so that’s the part that’s probably harder to anticipate now (if there are discussions happening) - which is why Boras wanted to do his deals ahead of time. It is going to be a fun week or two once this all gets resolved.
Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder.
I would do McNeil for Laurer. To me, he seems like a guy who can be that 4th starter but also has potential upside. Isn't that what Mets should be looking for?
WME may decertify in order to buy minor league teams. This may explain why Eppler left and why Correa suddenly left for Boras. Not really Mets related but interesting.
@baseballpro ranks 3 @mets in their top 100. Alvarez (10), Baty (13), and Mauricio (51)
Witt Jr. comes in at #1
Very interesting. A stark difference with Baty and Mauricio vs. BA. I do think that's a little high on Baty. Not a knock on him, just on how much I like other prospects.
I know I'd put Marte and Volpe before Baty. Probably Hunter Greene and Max Meyer as well.
the few phenoms are obviously on a whole other level (Tatis, Vlad Jr., etc) the rest is like arguing the NFL100 each offseason. Extremely circumstantial and subjective. And not all that predictive towards the next year.
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs
Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs
Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets
getting top pitching talents at a discount seems like a good strategy. if the are pitching at all in 2023 they arent even missing that much development time. theres a good chance they eventually need surgery like allan anyway so may as well take the slight discount like they did with ginn.
quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9
i dont know why more starters don't try that later stage (like McHugh). Velocity gains and only once through hitters seems like a very good way to boost career viability if a player is barely hanging on to a regular turn.
i dont know why more starters don't try that later stage (like McHugh). Velocity gains and only once through hitters seems like a very good way to boost career viability if a player is barely hanging on to a regular turn.
Valid question. Harvey (for example) still sat 93.2 as a SP, not crazy to believe he could find 1-2 MPH (at minimum) in 1-2 inning stints.
we all need to cross our fingers the players upcoming proposal
I expect them to include something re: service time changes, but that may be with the expectation that it will eventually be horse traded out.
the key thing to watch is the LTT. I think the owners not increasing their previous offer is what the MLBPA was disappointed with last week. If the players don't start trying to meet in the middle it's not a serious offer.
with luck they will accept the increases proposed by the owners and build from there with a more reasonable proposed LTT increase ($230-235m?) and nothing superfluous.
Everything we’ve seen thus far suggests MLB owners want to test the players. That they intend to wait out the players as long as possible, to see if they’ll crack under the threat of losing paychecks.
This lockout strategy at the commissioner’s office appears designed around one goal: minimizing how much owners have to give up. If you, as an owner, wait until the last minute, players might grow impatient, and you can surrender less than you would otherwise. Or if the players totally crumble, maybe you part with close to nothing. And if the players stand tall? Well, at least you didn’t give up any more than you had to, any sooner than you had to.
What ownership’s approach means for players is that if they really want change — if after all these years of complaints about the status quo, the players are serious about achieving their goals — they will have to force owners to make it. Link - ( New Window )
that's why service time changes likely won't happen
i think the players are going to cave on that because it's only a small % of players impacted by it. the majority of players aren't going to pass up more money, in a system they were already reasonably ok with, for that change (imo).
that's why we need to see the MLBPA make a serious counter offer on LTT especially. they may ask for service time changes as leverage but there are other areas where the owners can and will say yes. LTT is easiest, but also arbitration changes, DH, service time manipulation, revenue sharing rules, raising minimums for young players etc.
It would be a great step forward for MLBPA to accept a bulk of what MLB proposed in their last counter offer and started to meet in the middle on LTT.
Not sure how realistic it is (with the Nationals being the previous Expos franchise) but if Montreal does in fact get an expansion team it would be cool if they were named the Expos and brought back their old uniforms
quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9
I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.
quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9
I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.
That may well prove to be true but at the end of the day his FIP (4.57) is basically what he's shown himself to be for his career (4.31) and his savant page paints an ugly picture. For the price/commitment he's a nice player to have but I'm not betting on him being 1st half Walker in 2022. Steamer isn't optimistic (4.72 FIP) nor is ZiPS (4.51). Projections only mean so much so we'll see. Link - ( New Window )
in the second half of his innings (75 innings) he gave up 21 homers. In that first half he allowed 24 earned runs. In the second half he allowed 55. So those extra 16 homers plus the men on base were likely almost the entire difference. So put another way, the overall success of his season was impacted heavily by 16 presumably bad pitches.
For the full season his HR/9 was a little higher than his career average (1.47) and his HR/FB% (14%) was 1% higher than his career average so the question is out of 2021 is clear.
Was he doing something early in the year that is sustainable going forward, or was that a fluke?
In his best season (2017) he averaged less than 1 homer per 9 innings and his HR/FB% was 11% (3% lower). And he did that in Arizona with less average velocity. So there's reason to believe the first half wasn't a total fluke and the reality is he is probably somewhere in between, especially when taking into account innings fatigue.
imo the most important takeaway from last year is that he had really good stuff by the eye test and his velocity was the best it's been post-injuries. At his price he is still a great upside contract. He is entering his a29 season right now and if he finds a way to break through the wall pitch more consistently for a full year he could be this year's version of Gausman/Ray. at his price there's almost no downside as long as he gives them 150 innings like he did last year because even with that level of performance he outproduced his contract.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association plan to meet Monday, when the union is expected to present a counteroffer to the league’s proposal last week, sources tell ESPN.
This would be the second meeting between the sides since MLB locked out players on Dec. 2.
my guess is they will have arbitration start year 2, include the early FA in limited exceptions (players 29.5), and propose a raise of the LTT to $235m. That should all equate to more than $200m in new $ to the players.
Most people that looked at his innings in recent years predicted he would. The guy had almost no significant time as a SP since 2017. That's a massive layoff. His season pretty much went as expected IMO.
Vientos and Allan were among the 15 who just missed BA top 100
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)
“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“
Wait.....Ex-Met Wilmer Flores has a brother named Wilmer Flores who pitches in @tigers system...and those 2 have 2 OTHER brothers named...Wilmer Flores...and their father is named...Wilmer Flores
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)
“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“
not hitting 85% last year when most other teams did was the first chink in the armor.
I mean is vaccination status going to be a thing for the 2022 baseball season?
I don't think it's a huge deal, the guy was going to be a bench coach, right? Not underestimating it but not exactly an irreplaceable skill set IMO, but not sure it should preclude the hire necessarily.
Showalter said he did not agree with Butterfield’s opposition to the vaccine. But he recalled his former coach’s stubborn streak on baseball matters from their days together with the Yankees and Diamondbacks, and was not about to get into an argument with him.
“I know him too well to try to talk him into something like that,” said Showalter, who regards Butterfield as the best infield coach in baseball, adding that the Phillies’ Bobby Dickerson, Mariners’ Perry Hill and Braves’ Ron Washington are also among the elite and that he might regard Mets new third-base coach Joey Cora just as highly once he gets to know him better.
“I love him to death,” Showalter said of Butterfield. “If he called me tomorrow and said, ‘I’ve changed my mind and I’ll come,’ I’d figure out every which way I could to get him.”
it sounds to me like it was more of a judgement call than anything
Wait.....Ex-Met Wilmer Flores has a brother named Wilmer Flores who pitches in @tigers system...and those 2 have 2 OTHER brothers named...Wilmer Flores...and their father is named...Wilmer Flores
and it's likely click bait, but I would support this for the Mets
Quote:
GENY Mets Report
@genymets
·
19h
NEWS: According to @BleacherReport
, the #Mets are the “2nd best option” for FA Clayton Kershaw behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. #LGM
Alvarez franchise player upside, 4th ranked catcher in large part due to proximity to the majors (the others are closer)
Expects Baty to tap into his power, thinks he'll see more time in LF early in his career but expects him to be a 3b long term.
Mauricio- huge power and bat speed, not much conviction he's going to hit enough or get on base enough to be a "major factor" at the big league level. Mauricio can play SS "in the right situation". 3B or RF is likely his pro position. 2b "I guess".
Vientos hits the ball hard, hits the ball to all fields, sneaky upside with him. No real positional value.
Doesn't really see a clear "sleeper" who could crack the top 100 next year with Ginn or Ramirez being the 2 mentioned if "everything broke right", which he deemed "low probability". More likely whomever they take 11 and/or 14 would be that guy #Mets
Mets are "so thin" in pitching in the minors. "Proximity pitching" is the weakest part of the system.
-Interestingly @MattEddyBA also noted that new @mets assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes was instrumental in instituting a new organizational hitting program. @mets want to get into the top 10 in minor league exit velocity. Curious to see who replaces Barnes
-Mauricio the most likely "major" trade chip prospect. Other teams have called.
Mark C. Healey
@MarkCHealey
Hiring Eric Chavez as hitting coach, in part, was because #Mets wanted a person "who had some experience of living and dying in the batter's box." - #Mets GM Billy Eppler
Ginn and Ramirez have good enough pedigrees where good years
could make them top 100 prospects. Not making any prediction on them having good years, that's obviously a variable that can go in any direction.
But hypothetically a good year from Ginn will have him pitching well (era around 3) in AA in his A22 season with solid peripherals and continued good velocity/spin.
A good year from Ramirez will get him to Brooklyn (A+) in his A19. For reference Mauricio hit A+ in his A20 and put up a 740 ops. I have no idea if Ramirez is capable of doing better than that this year but if he did, based on that and the big bonus/loud tools he'd start getting some attention. Gimenez hit A+ at A19 and posted a .780 OPS. A good year from ramirez would theoretically put him on a similar quality tier.
That also helps put Alvarez' .890 OPS in A+ at A19 last year in context (not to mention the 1.200 ops in A ball that got him promoted so quickly). He's rightfully being viewed on another level.
mean didn't he say as much? Ramirez posted a .710 OPS despite a .376 BABIP, and a 31.1% k rate, so yeah he'd have to show substantial improvement in 2022 to be a top 100 consideration 302 ab's 104 k's in A ball is very, very high. As for Ginn, the K-rate likely is never going to be particularly sexy and the velocity is good but not elite for this era of baseball so he's going to have to do things beyond post a good era to make "the" top 100 lists aka BP/FG/Law/BA.
note on Ramirez. He signed for 2 million which isn't chump change but it was "only" the 11th biggest bonus of the 2019 signing period so he was viewed as a very good signing but not such a large bonus that it's going to be a major feather in his cap in terms of projections. I actually like him a lot but I think Matt Eddy's comments are completely fair regarding both. Unlikely Ramirez/Ginn are 2023 top 100 prospects, doesn't mean it can't happen.
also randomly called Jeremy Barnes an "impactful" coaching hire today. Seems like he'll be a "loss" to the minor league system but an asset to the Mets and Chavez.
— they’ve very obviously significantly improved at PD
— they’re still well behind the top tier teams (and have mediocre farm depth b/c of it)
— Baty greatly improved from 2019 to 2021
— Baty still has approach issues that limit his game power
and prospect rankings and it got me thinking about the Mets and Tommy John Surgery. So, he's probably not doing anything in 2022, I guess maybe an August or September start, but likely 2022 is a lost cause for him.
What I was thinking about was who is the last Met prospect pitcher that did not have TJS (some of these were pre-Met or pre-draft)?
Best guess, if/when a new CBA is finally agreed to, how many years of service will a team have over a player before free agency?
Ben Clemens
2:00
Six
2:01
I could see the Super 2 stuff getting eliminated, because it's kind of absurd and owners keep acknowledging that in their proposals
What the Rays did to Wander, the ultra-Super-Two move, might have started happening to more stars otherwise
(they signed an extension obviously, so all is forgiven in that instance)
2:02
But I don't see the owners budging below six and I don't see the PA being willing to make enough sacrifices elsewhere to come up with a palatable deal with less than 6 years to FA
Best guess, if/when a new CBA is finally agreed to, how many years of service will a team have over a player before free agency?
Ben Clemens
2:00
Six
2:01
I could see the Super 2 stuff getting eliminated, because it's kind of absurd and owners keep acknowledging that in their proposals
What the Rays did to Wander, the ultra-Super-Two move, might have started happening to more stars otherwise
(they signed an extension obviously, so all is forgiven in that instance)
2:02
But I don't see the owners budging below six and I don't see the PA being willing to make enough sacrifices elsewhere to come up with a palatable deal with less than 6 years to FA
i think the owners don't want to start lowering 6 because it's a slippery slope. they put in 1 or 2 exceptions now, then more the next time, and so on.
the service time is what keeps low revenue teams competitive allows teams that build farm up a window to win.
seems easier to offer more money elsewhere and seems likely if offered the PA will take it. fingers crossed today's session is productive and begins the continued dialogue that gets a deal done in the next few weeks.
The Major League Baseball Players Association dropped its request to introduce an age-based free agency system into the sport on Monday, withdrawing a proposal in one of the three major areas MLB had shown no interest in changing, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Athletic.
That means the amount of service time it takes a player to reach free agency — six years — is most likely going to remain unchanged whenever the sides reach a new deal. The players had previously proposed a system to get some players to free agency after five years if they had reached a certain age: 30 1/2, and then eventually, 29 1/2.
The union also revised its proposal to alter revenue sharing between the teams, another of the three areas MLB has resisted changes toward — and traditionally, a hot-button topic for the owners themselves. Between revenue sharing and free agency, the union feels it made two significant concessions.
The union on Monday also rejected most if not all of what MLB had proposed in the sides’ most recent meeting. Link - ( New Window )
"With the time-to-free-agency question gone, two of the major hurdles remaining are whether MLB could become amenable to any changes to revenue sharing; and what will happen to the other particularly contentious bucket, the time it takes a player to reach arbitration. The players’ decision to drop their request to get players to free agency sooner wasn’t particularly surprising, considering what the union has been talking about for years, publicly, is the plight of younger players.
The union’s proposal to get players to arbitration after two years from November went unchanged on Monday. At the time, the league said it had no interest in discussing it."
The Major League Baseball Players Association dropped its request to introduce an age-based free agency system into the sport on Monday, withdrawing a proposal in one of the three major areas MLB had shown no interest in changing, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Athletic.
That means the amount of service time it takes a player to reach free agency — six years — is most likely going to remain unchanged whenever the sides reach a new deal. The players had previously proposed a system to get some players to free agency after five years if they had reached a certain age: 30 1/2, and then eventually, 29 1/2.
The union also revised its proposal to alter revenue sharing between the teams, another of the three areas MLB has resisted changes toward — and traditionally, a hot-button topic for the owners themselves. Between revenue sharing and free agency, the union feels it made two significant concessions.
not all good news:
Quote:
The union on Monday also rejected most if not all of what MLB had proposed in the sides’ most recent meeting.
been told trading of picks is now *unlikely* as it's not been a hot button issue and that an international draft likely would be 2 or 3 years out even if agreed to now. Neither of these are set in stone.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
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13s
The meeting between the Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB is over. There is not a deal, nor did anyone expect one. Union made a broad proposal that included removing pieces of its past offers.
The good news: They’re meeting again tomorrow. Passes for progress.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
14s
At the risk of being Debbie Downer: Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The meeting was contentious. There is a lot — a lot — left to work out before there’s a new labor deal. This still could take a while.
But the fact that it didn’t go backward when it could’ve? W.
on field rules changes expected to be made for the new CBA, Manfred said it last month but most didn't notice (myself included)
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
Evan Drellich
@EvanDrellich
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17m
An MLB official called the dialogue today spirited. Meeting lasted close to two hours. Put another way: it was heated.
on field rules changes expected to be made for the new CBA, Manfred said it last month but most didn't notice (myself included)
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
on field rules changes expected to be made for the new CBA, Manfred said it last month but most didn't notice (myself included)
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
Does this mean DH is off the table?
it would be pretty shocking to not end up in the final CBA. im pretty sure the players just dont want to let the owners count it as a "new money" concession. they want to get their other asks first and then it will be in the final CBA at the end since everyone wants it.
is not part of what Manfred was referencing. Pitch clock, robo umps, double hook etc the experiments they publicized in the minors, none will be in play.
Sounds pretty likely the next CBA will include a draft-lottery ala the NBA. The only question is how many teams will be included. Owners want 3, the MLBPA apparently wants 8. You'd like to believe 5 would be a fair mid-point
proposals to move things forward. The players backing off the service time is bigger than i expected in this initial counter. the owners made a few proposals in a row to the players with various positive odds and ends that incrementally increased money to the players in different ways.
i know there's a lot of doom and gloom and justified hate for both sides, but this is probably the best we (fans) can hope for. contentious horse trading that grinds out a deal with some but not too much pain. and hopefully there will be some fun on the other side of the rainbow when they cram 300 transactions into 1 week before ST.
In typical self-serving fashion, A-rod was right a few years ago when he accidentally said the truth out loud. The way forward to better labor relations is a cap, but the MLBPA unlike the NFL/NBA/NHL refuses to go there. So this is what will happen until they do.
Quote:
(this is from July 2020)
On a conference call with reporters Thursday, Rodriguez suggested the key to elevating baseball’s status in the American sports landscape was to have players and owners work together to raise revenues that they would then split evenly.
“The only way it’s going to happen is if they get to the table and say the No. 1 goal, let’s get from $10 to $15 billion and then we'll split the economics evenly,” A-Rod said. “But that's the type of conversation instead of fighting and fighting against each other because there’s too much competition out there right now.”
This sort of revenue-sharing arrangement is a salary cap, which the MLB Players Association has fought against for decades. The absence of such a cap is what allowed Rodriguez to become as rich as he has. But now that he’s on the other side, he sees things differently.
MLBPA head Tony Clark called out A-Rod in a statement to ESPN.
“Alex benefited as much as anybody from the battles this union fought against owners’ repeated attempts to get a salary cap,” Clark said. “Now that he is attempting to become an owner himself his perspective appears to be different. And that perspective does not reflect the best interests of the players.”
Rodriguez has since clarified his comments, emphasizing that he never said “salary cap.”
what's kind of funny is that Clark's statement seemingly admitted that it was players like Arod, the top 1%, who disproportionately benefit from the status quo.
Which is if it only affects 1% of the players why negotiate towards that goal. If revenue split, higher base salaries, salary floor, etc would work better for most members why fight that? In ever league that’s not MLB the rules screw the superstar in favor of the rest of the players. Just a thought.
Which is if it only affects 1% of the players why negotiate towards that goal. If revenue split, higher base salaries, salary floor, etc would work better for most members why fight that? In ever league that’s not MLB the rules screw the superstar in favor of the rest of the players. Just a thought.
i think these would be his answers to that:
1. baseball is different than other sports so if you cap the big markets at all it's a net loss the small markets can't make up
2. they don't trust the owners to open the books for an honest accounting for revenue split
3. the current system is better than the other sports for all players even though it's a lot better for the top 1-10%, so the goal is to continue balancing it out by getting more of the pie and increasing benefits at the lower end pre UFA vs. starting over. increasing the league minimum, arbitration rules, service time, etc.
there's validity to all 3 but that's why I think the MLBPA is a little disingenuous in these particular talks. they want more upside with less downside but generally like the current system (as we saw in November). but i guess they have to be performative or else the owners will sense enough weakness to turn the screws. neither side deserves any benefit of doubt. just hope something gets done.
It would be governed by the CBA with a verified third party auditor. I have done countless contracts where neither party trusts the other as it relates to finances and this has never been an issue. Think about all of the crap thrown around between the NFL and the PA - has auditing the financials ever been an issue?
I realize you are conjuring the response by the PA but I have seen that point made a bunch of places and it’s simply not that high of a risk if it’s contractually governed.
RE: I see the #2 narrative and it’s just not reality
It would be governed by the CBA with a verified third party auditor. I have done countless contracts where neither party trusts the other as it relates to finances and this has never been an issue. Think about all of the crap thrown around between the NFL and the PA - has auditing the financials ever been an issue?
I realize you are conjuring the response by the PA but I have seen that point made a bunch of places and it’s simply not that high of a risk if it’s contractually governed.
agreed - i think it's more a PR red herring because nobody else trusts the owners either, and the owners have been evasive for decades so it's an easy way to score points on them.
but im with you - in return for a true cap im sure they'd agree to an independent 3rd party.
so i think it's posturing from the MLBPA who simply don't want a true cap.
interesting/notable article about last year's hitters struggles
I might turn out being wrong, but I think Vientos has a much higher floor, and Mauricio a wider range of outcomes.
It’s Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Those are the 3 Mets that made the list.
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
Baty wasn't particularly "great" in AA either. His ranking seems fair to me. 118 wRC+ 5 homers over 40 games.
I tend to agree with that evaluation from everything I've read/seen with him. I could see his career going either way. Take out the defensive positions, and he could end up turning into a Chisolm type (with less speed). But I was really critical of the Marlins for the Gallen for Chisolm deal, because I admittedly have a bias against those speed/power players with a questionable hit tool. More times than not those players do not reach their upside.
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that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
#2 or #3 best CATCHING prospect. BA has him 3rd.
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that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
Baty wasn't particularly "great" in AA either. His ranking seems fair to me. 118 wRC+ 5 homers over 40 games.
Good point.
Quote:
that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...
I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
Yeah, it's a pretty loaded top 15 too. Don't have access to BA, but you have Witt, Rutschman, Rodriguez, Grayson Rodriguez, Greene, Torkelson, Baz, Moreno, Davis, Abrams, Luciano, Hunter Greene, Volpe, etc. No shame in Alvarez being anywhere there.
Alvarez may be on a whole other level from any prospect they've had recently - and they've had some good ones obviously. Seems rightfully untouchable given position.
Baty seems like he will be a lot like Conforto. A solid hitter.
Vientos may be considered riskier than the others but the bat has Alonso upside (he also was never that highly rating by the scouting services until he had that huge final AA/AAA year in the minors).
Mauricio seems a lot like Rosario in that so far he's more tools than production so he might be the one I'd trade. But the tools are loud, he may shift to a position of greater need, and he is still young (entering his A21 year).
Who knows what the 2 SP will be but they simply can't afford to trade any good arms in the system right now.
Not sure if internally they'd consider either of Ramirez or Dominguez in that group.
I've seen him on top 5 on some lists. A lot of it's subjective. Alvarez has 0 speed, and a bad body. Don't get me wrong, I am excited about him, and consider him to be untouchable (save for a Soto type), but a lot of those prospect rankings favor more toolsy players. I've found BA does a lot. Alvarez has 0 speed, and has struggled some with his defense (though it is obviously early on that)
To add to that, the list is made by the entire staff of BP, I know Eric doesn't care for Seidler/thinks he's a hater so just clarifying that he's simply hinting what might be in tomorrow's piece/list.
If not, curious about if there are any ex-Mets prospects on the list.
Also curious on the top 25. if anyone can share.
thank you in advance.
I think he has zero credibility on pretty much every other narrative he drives about the mets org, which are mostly in areas in that have little to do with his job.
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
If not, curious about if there are any ex-Mets prospects on the list.
Also curious on the top 25. if anyone can share.
thank you in advance.
I suspect the only ex-Mets prospect you will find on there is SWR. I have not found anything on where he is ranked, though have seen him around 55-60 on others.
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yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
Cubs have 2 on the list, per Dan. PCA is about their 5th best prospect, so won't be on there. Kelenic graduated. Wolf/Greene aren't going to be on any top 100 prospect lists
Quote:
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.
Kelenic graduated, PCA didn't make it (the Cubs had 3). SWR had an era near 6 this year and also did not make it.
I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?
Quote:
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.
I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?
Yes. That was a college heavy top of the draft for the Mets and the feeling was Clarke might be a guy they would be able to throw money at vs. his commitment to CS Northridge. 2 of his cousins are pro players (The Naylor brothers)
Not one to complain about 4th round MLB draft picks, but Clarke certainly does seem more interesting than Schwartz. They could have had him in the 4th in the last draft.
Link - ( New Window )
In other words, he is very projectable according to advanced analytics.
His numbers at AA were fine but nothing exceptional.
So, it makes me think some publications are a little more old school than others. They consult analytics but still depend heavily on numbers and eyeball judgments.
I've seen comps of him to Springer. We could only get so lucky. Both he and Fanas are reportedly five-tool players, so they certainly look like interesting signings.
Juan Uribe: "Several teams have shown interest in my son, but I would like him to sign with the White Sox because he was born and raised in Chicago and I played for them for five seasons. I love White Sox fans."
just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.
It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.
Alvarez was 7th.
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
Link to full list
link - ( New Window )
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curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high
just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.
It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.
JD Davis was a 3rd round pick, hit throughout college, .890 OPS in the minors but because he was viewed as a likely 1B/DH (despite an arm good enough to pitch) never cracked BA's list.
.292/.365/.526 career minor league hitter (2.94 era in college over 36 appearances, I wonder why they don't consider him a potential "2 way" guy even if the pitching is as a mop up type.
Alvarez was 7th.
Quote:
14. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (Age: 22)
Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.
Link to full list link - ( New Window )
There is concern that despite excellent exit velocities, Baty's swing isn't conducive to really tapping into his premium power. Seidler said he thinks Baty's "lift" issues are in part due to his approach at the plate
"Fairly common, not easy to overcome but not impossible. Vlad Jr. ran MLB groundball rates nearly this high until this year. Baty’s swing is geared for more loft than he’s shown so far…I think a chunk of it is approach based with him"
I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.
I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.
I could lie and act like I know much about Ziegler outside of the public scouting but a large portion of his draft helium came in the form of workouts where his velocity apparently was sitting more in the mid-90's range vs. the low 90's it sat previously. He's a smallish RH from Canada so he's behind the 8-ball BUT those in the know like the live arm, clean delivery and makings of a plus slider. Odds are it's a RP profile but who knows?
Hamel almost certainly was an "analytics dept" pick. Teams that leaned more heavily on their analytics dept vs. pure scouting liked Hamel far more than scouting based teams. All 3 of his pitches have plus spin. He's also already 23 in March. I think there is a real chance he's a top 8-10 prospect in the system come this time next year and I'd probably rank him no lower than 4th in terms of SP (Allan, Ginn and then Ziegler/Hamel) toss-up. I'd probably lean towards Hamel even with the age difference.
Scott is an interesting one. Personally, I'd like to see them allow him to start but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards so he's 95-98 with a good, sometimes plus slider. They haven't traditionally done well with college pick relievers so "wait and see".
That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.
That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.
Any time. Ziegler is something of a mystery even to the scouting community for a variety of reasons (Covid, Canada, pop-up velocity etc)
@JosephLangan2
Ronny Mauricio took a significant hit on @BaseballAmerica
’s top 100 prospects list. Moving from number 65 in the pre-2021 ranking to number 92 in the pre-2022 ranking. The one main reason, pitch selection. 2022 will be a critical year for Mauricio and his future with the Mets.
I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.
I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.
Mauricio held his own given his age in winter ball (.244/.277/.367 2 homers, 3 walks 21 k's) but was eventually cut from the team. Keep in mind, they take these games very seriously and he was the youngest player on the team. 2nd youngest regular was 23. Mauricio has a low floor and high ceiling, the gap is far larger than their other top tier prospects (I'm not going to include Matt Allan because major surgery/yet to pitch... nearly impossible to judge)
So Orze is expected to be a reliever? For some reason, I thought he would be stretched out as a SP. Might be thinking of someone else, or mistaken.
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for Orze. I'd bet he sees Queens this year... after 3 bouts of cancer. Amazing.
So Orze is expected to be a reliever? For some reason, I thought he would be stretched out as a SP. Might be thinking of someone else, or mistaken.
Orze has been viewed as a RP since he was drafted. Only 4 starts in college (in part due to illness) but used as a short man as a pro and no indication they intend to change that. I've heard Christian Scott suggested as a potential SP but not from anybody connected with the team.
the Stearns rumors will probably never go away until he signs his next deal but it wouldn't shock me if things go well if Eppler gets promoted up to President and Zauzmer goes up to GM. Something like that was clearly the intent with Porter and Scott last year so I guess we learned from that how quickly things can change but I'm not so sure Stearns comes into play again if things go better this time around.
To be clear I’m 100% agreeing with you but to add Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder. If Peterson did that (they are the same age) he’s be deemed “untouchable” by many. Would love to somehow land both Lauer and Suter or Cousins but Lauer would be a nice grab either way
Yes - but the trade market will be intertwined with FA though so that’s the part that’s probably harder to anticipate now (if there are discussions happening) - which is why Boras wanted to do his deals ahead of time. It is going to be a fun week or two once this all gets resolved.
I would do McNeil for Laurer. To me, he seems like a guy who can be that 4th starter but also has potential upside. Isn't that what Mets should be looking for?
Love to know why the Mets couldn't find a way to keep him around.
I think that's the team where a bunch of SNL guys (Pete Davidson, Michael Che, maybe others) are part owners.
Witt Jr. comes in at #1
Witt Jr. comes in at #1
Very interesting. A stark difference with Baty and Mauricio vs. BA. I do think that's a little high on Baty. Not a knock on him, just on how much I like other prospects.
I know I'd put Marte and Volpe before Baty. Probably Hunter Greene and Max Meyer as well.
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs
Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs
Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets
getting top pitching talents at a discount seems like a good strategy. if the are pitching at all in 2023 they arent even missing that much development time. theres a good chance they eventually need surgery like allan anyway so may as well take the slight discount like they did with ginn.
Link - ( New Window )
The bridge may be burned, but I'd take him on a minor league deal
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looking to debate Matt Harvey but he looks to be in incredible shape Link - ( New Window )
The bridge may be burned, but I'd take him on a minor league deal
Eppler did sign Harvey in 2019... just saying! lol
Will always have a soft spot for Matt.
Valid question. Harvey (for example) still sat 93.2 as a SP, not crazy to believe he could find 1-2 MPH (at minimum) in 1-2 inning stints.
I expect them to include something re: service time changes, but that may be with the expectation that it will eventually be horse traded out.
the key thing to watch is the LTT. I think the owners not increasing their previous offer is what the MLBPA was disappointed with last week. If the players don't start trying to meet in the middle it's not a serious offer.
with luck they will accept the increases proposed by the owners and build from there with a more reasonable proposed LTT increase ($230-235m?) and nothing superfluous.
This lockout strategy at the commissioner’s office appears designed around one goal: minimizing how much owners have to give up. If you, as an owner, wait until the last minute, players might grow impatient, and you can surrender less than you would otherwise. Or if the players totally crumble, maybe you part with close to nothing. And if the players stand tall? Well, at least you didn’t give up any more than you had to, any sooner than you had to.
What ownership’s approach means for players is that if they really want change — if after all these years of complaints about the status quo, the players are serious about achieving their goals — they will have to force owners to make it.
Link - ( New Window )
that's why we need to see the MLBPA make a serious counter offer on LTT especially. they may ask for service time changes as leverage but there are other areas where the owners can and will say yes. LTT is easiest, but also arbitration changes, DH, service time manipulation, revenue sharing rules, raising minimums for young players etc.
It would be a great step forward for MLBPA to accept a bulk of what MLB proposed in their last counter offer and started to meet in the middle on LTT.
I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.
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quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9
I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.
That may well prove to be true but at the end of the day his FIP (4.57) is basically what he's shown himself to be for his career (4.31) and his savant page paints an ugly picture. For the price/commitment he's a nice player to have but I'm not betting on him being 1st half Walker in 2022. Steamer isn't optimistic (4.72 FIP) nor is ZiPS (4.51). Projections only mean so much so we'll see.
Link - ( New Window )
For the full season his HR/9 was a little higher than his career average (1.47) and his HR/FB% (14%) was 1% higher than his career average so the question is out of 2021 is clear.
Was he doing something early in the year that is sustainable going forward, or was that a fluke?
In his best season (2017) he averaged less than 1 homer per 9 innings and his HR/FB% was 11% (3% lower). And he did that in Arizona with less average velocity. So there's reason to believe the first half wasn't a total fluke and the reality is he is probably somewhere in between, especially when taking into account innings fatigue.
imo the most important takeaway from last year is that he had really good stuff by the eye test and his velocity was the best it's been post-injuries. At his price he is still a great upside contract. He is entering his a29 season right now and if he finds a way to break through the wall pitch more consistently for a full year he could be this year's version of Gausman/Ray. at his price there's almost no downside as long as he gives them 150 innings like he did last year because even with that level of performance he outproduced his contract.
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association plan to meet Monday, when the union is expected to present a counteroffer to the league’s proposal last week, sources tell ESPN.
This would be the second meeting between the sides since MLB locked out players on Dec. 2.
my guess is they will have arbitration start year 2, include the early FA in limited exceptions (players 29.5), and propose a raise of the LTT to $235m. That should all equate to more than $200m in new $ to the players.
@AudacySports
· 7h
Brian Butterfield denied role on Mets coaching staff for refusing vaccine. https://audacy.com/sports/mlb/unv
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
@JonHeyman
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7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)
“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
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7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)
“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“
not hitting 85% last year when most other teams did was the first chink in the armor.
I don't think it's a huge deal, the guy was going to be a bench coach, right? Not underestimating it but not exactly an irreplaceable skill set IMO, but not sure it should preclude the hire necessarily.
“I know him too well to try to talk him into something like that,” said Showalter, who regards Butterfield as the best infield coach in baseball, adding that the Phillies’ Bobby Dickerson, Mariners’ Perry Hill and Braves’ Ron Washington are also among the elite and that he might regard Mets new third-base coach Joey Cora just as highly once he gets to know him better.
“I love him to death,” Showalter said of Butterfield. “If he called me tomorrow and said, ‘I’ve changed my mind and I’ll come,’ I’d figure out every which way I could to get him.”
absolutely huge year for Allan, needs to really show something.
Sounds like a George Forman situation
@genymets
·
19h
NEWS: According to @BleacherReport
, the #Mets are the “2nd best option” for FA Clayton Kershaw behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. #LGM
Alvarez franchise player upside, 4th ranked catcher in large part due to proximity to the majors (the others are closer)
Expects Baty to tap into his power, thinks he'll see more time in LF early in his career but expects him to be a 3b long term.
Mauricio- huge power and bat speed, not much conviction he's going to hit enough or get on base enough to be a "major factor" at the big league level. Mauricio can play SS "in the right situation". 3B or RF is likely his pro position. 2b "I guess".
Vientos hits the ball hard, hits the ball to all fields, sneaky upside with him. No real positional value.
Doesn't really see a clear "sleeper" who could crack the top 100 next year with Ginn or Ramirez being the 2 mentioned if "everything broke right", which he deemed "low probability". More likely whomever they take 11 and/or 14 would be that guy #Mets
Mets are "so thin" in pitching in the minors. "Proximity pitching" is the weakest part of the system.
-Interestingly @MattEddyBA also noted that new @mets assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes was instrumental in instituting a new organizational hitting program. @mets want to get into the top 10 in minor league exit velocity. Curious to see who replaces Barnes
-Mauricio the most likely "major" trade chip prospect. Other teams have called.
-Mets system "middle of the pack"
@Metsmerized
·
1m
Buck Showalter said that putting together the coaching staff was a collaborative effort with the front office.
@MarkCHealey
Hiring Eric Chavez as hitting coach, in part, was because #Mets wanted a person "who had some experience of living and dying in the batter's box." - #Mets GM Billy Eppler
But hypothetically a good year from Ginn will have him pitching well (era around 3) in AA in his A22 season with solid peripherals and continued good velocity/spin.
A good year from Ramirez will get him to Brooklyn (A+) in his A19. For reference Mauricio hit A+ in his A20 and put up a 740 ops. I have no idea if Ramirez is capable of doing better than that this year but if he did, based on that and the big bonus/loud tools he'd start getting some attention. Gimenez hit A+ at A19 and posted a .780 OPS. A good year from ramirez would theoretically put him on a similar quality tier.
That also helps put Alvarez' .890 OPS in A+ at A19 last year in context (not to mention the 1.200 ops in A ball that got him promoted so quickly). He's rightfully being viewed on another level.
— they’re still well behind the top tier teams (and have mediocre farm depth b/c of it)
— Baty greatly improved from 2019 to 2021
— Baty still has approach issues that limit his game power
What I was thinking about was who is the last Met prospect pitcher that did not have TJS (some of these were pre-Met or pre-draft)?
Allan: yes
Syndergaard: yes
Harvey: yes
deGrom: yes
Wheeler: yes
Matz: yes
Ginn: yes
Szapucki: yes
Humber: yes
Izzy: yes
even guys like Carrasco, Kilome and Walker who weren't Mets prospects or highly rated Mets prospects had TJS
I'm sure I missed some - is it this common for all teams?
Ben Clemens
2:00
Six
2:01
I could see the Super 2 stuff getting eliminated, because it's kind of absurd and owners keep acknowledging that in their proposals
What the Rays did to Wander, the ultra-Super-Two move, might have started happening to more stars otherwise
(they signed an extension obviously, so all is forgiven in that instance)
2:02
But I don't see the owners budging below six and I don't see the PA being willing to make enough sacrifices elsewhere to come up with a palatable deal with less than 6 years to FA
@Metsmerized
·
1h
Buck Showalter raves about bench coach Glenn Sherlock's ability to help the catchers on on the roster.
Buck also said that Sherlock's familiarity with some of the players on the roster was a key point in hiring him.
Ben Clemens
2:00
Six
2:01
I could see the Super 2 stuff getting eliminated, because it's kind of absurd and owners keep acknowledging that in their proposals
What the Rays did to Wander, the ultra-Super-Two move, might have started happening to more stars otherwise
(they signed an extension obviously, so all is forgiven in that instance)
2:02
But I don't see the owners budging below six and I don't see the PA being willing to make enough sacrifices elsewhere to come up with a palatable deal with less than 6 years to FA
i think the owners don't want to start lowering 6 because it's a slippery slope. they put in 1 or 2 exceptions now, then more the next time, and so on.
the service time is what keeps low revenue teams competitive allows teams that build farm up a window to win.
seems easier to offer more money elsewhere and seems likely if offered the PA will take it. fingers crossed today's session is productive and begins the continued dialogue that gets a deal done in the next few weeks.
That means the amount of service time it takes a player to reach free agency — six years — is most likely going to remain unchanged whenever the sides reach a new deal. The players had previously proposed a system to get some players to free agency after five years if they had reached a certain age: 30 1/2, and then eventually, 29 1/2.
The union also revised its proposal to alter revenue sharing between the teams, another of the three areas MLB has resisted changes toward — and traditionally, a hot-button topic for the owners themselves. Between revenue sharing and free agency, the union feels it made two significant concessions.
The union on Monday also rejected most if not all of what MLB had proposed in the sides’ most recent meeting.
Link - ( New Window )
The union’s proposal to get players to arbitration after two years from November went unchanged on Monday. At the time, the league said it had no interest in discussing it."
That means the amount of service time it takes a player to reach free agency — six years — is most likely going to remain unchanged whenever the sides reach a new deal. The players had previously proposed a system to get some players to free agency after five years if they had reached a certain age: 30 1/2, and then eventually, 29 1/2.
The union also revised its proposal to alter revenue sharing between the teams, another of the three areas MLB has resisted changes toward — and traditionally, a hot-button topic for the owners themselves. Between revenue sharing and free agency, the union feels it made two significant concessions.
not all good news:
though that's possibly a bit of a red herring. im sure they didn't reject any of the increased $ MLB proposed, just how they allocated it (along with probably some of the ideas rumored for competitive balance like the draft pick compensation in return for rookie performance).
MLBPA drops age-based free agency proposal as negotiations on new labor deal continue: Source - ( New Window )
@HannahRKeyser
MLB and the Players Association will meet again tomorrow. The pace has officially picked up.
@JeffPassan
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13s
The meeting between the Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB is over. There is not a deal, nor did anyone expect one. Union made a broad proposal that included removing pieces of its past offers.
The good news: They’re meeting again tomorrow. Passes for progress.
@JeffPassan
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14s
At the risk of being Debbie Downer: Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The meeting was contentious. There is a lot — a lot — left to work out before there’s a new labor deal. This still could take a while.
But the fact that it didn’t go backward when it could’ve? W.
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
@EvanDrellich
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17m
An MLB official called the dialogue today spirited. Meeting lasted close to two hours. Put another way: it was heated.
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
Does this mean DH is off the table?
Quote:
on field rules changes expected to be made for the new CBA, Manfred said it last month but most didn't notice (myself included)
"“Frankly,” the commissioner said, “based on the discussions at the table, we saw it as another contentious issue and tried to put it to one side in an effort to get to an agreement – on the theory that we could deal with it mid-term of the next agreement.”
Does this mean DH is off the table?
it would be pretty shocking to not end up in the final CBA. im pretty sure the players just dont want to let the owners count it as a "new money" concession. they want to get their other asks first and then it will be in the final CBA at the end since everyone wants it.
i know there's a lot of doom and gloom and justified hate for both sides, but this is probably the best we (fans) can hope for. contentious horse trading that grinds out a deal with some but not too much pain. and hopefully there will be some fun on the other side of the rainbow when they cram 300 transactions into 1 week before ST.
In typical self-serving fashion, A-rod was right a few years ago when he accidentally said the truth out loud. The way forward to better labor relations is a cap, but the MLBPA unlike the NFL/NBA/NHL refuses to go there. So this is what will happen until they do.
On a conference call with reporters Thursday, Rodriguez suggested the key to elevating baseball’s status in the American sports landscape was to have players and owners work together to raise revenues that they would then split evenly.
“The only way it’s going to happen is if they get to the table and say the No. 1 goal, let’s get from $10 to $15 billion and then we'll split the economics evenly,” A-Rod said. “But that's the type of conversation instead of fighting and fighting against each other because there’s too much competition out there right now.”
This sort of revenue-sharing arrangement is a salary cap, which the MLB Players Association has fought against for decades. The absence of such a cap is what allowed Rodriguez to become as rich as he has. But now that he’s on the other side, he sees things differently.
MLBPA head Tony Clark called out A-Rod in a statement to ESPN.
“Alex benefited as much as anybody from the battles this union fought against owners’ repeated attempts to get a salary cap,” Clark said. “Now that he is attempting to become an owner himself his perspective appears to be different. And that perspective does not reflect the best interests of the players.”
Rodriguez has since clarified his comments, emphasizing that he never said “salary cap.”
what's kind of funny is that Clark's statement seemingly admitted that it was players like Arod, the top 1%, who disproportionately benefit from the status quo.
i think these would be his answers to that:
1. baseball is different than other sports so if you cap the big markets at all it's a net loss the small markets can't make up
2. they don't trust the owners to open the books for an honest accounting for revenue split
3. the current system is better than the other sports for all players even though it's a lot better for the top 1-10%, so the goal is to continue balancing it out by getting more of the pie and increasing benefits at the lower end pre UFA vs. starting over. increasing the league minimum, arbitration rules, service time, etc.
there's validity to all 3 but that's why I think the MLBPA is a little disingenuous in these particular talks. they want more upside with less downside but generally like the current system (as we saw in November). but i guess they have to be performative or else the owners will sense enough weakness to turn the screws. neither side deserves any benefit of doubt. just hope something gets done.
I realize you are conjuring the response by the PA but I have seen that point made a bunch of places and it’s simply not that high of a risk if it’s contractually governed.
I realize you are conjuring the response by the PA but I have seen that point made a bunch of places and it’s simply not that high of a risk if it’s contractually governed.
agreed - i think it's more a PR red herring because nobody else trusts the owners either, and the owners have been evasive for decades so it's an easy way to score points on them.
but im with you - in return for a true cap im sure they'd agree to an independent 3rd party.
so i think it's posturing from the MLBPA who simply don't want a true cap.
Mets went so heavy on analytics in 2021 that players expressed frustration - ( New Window )