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NFT: BA Mets Top 100

GF1080 : 1/19/2022 9:35 am
Baseball America Top 100 Updated Rankings:

#13 Francisco Alvarez
#39 Brett Baty
#92 Ronny Mauricio

Thought Vientos would sneak in as well.
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at this point  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 9:42 am : link
I might rather give up Mauricio in a trade than Vientos. Not saying I'm eager to dump either, but if they can headline a deal for a cost-controlled SP, I think I would rather give up Mauricio.

I might turn out being wrong, but I think Vientos has a much higher floor, and Mauricio a wider range of outcomes.
That's only 3 Mets  
NYG27 : 1/19/2022 9:47 am : link
Where are the other 97 Mets in "BA Mets Top 100"?
RE: That's only 3 Mets  
Jim in Fairfax : 1/19/2022 10:03 am : link
In comment 15560580 NYG27 said:
Quote:
Where are the other 97 Mets in "BA Mets Top 100"?

It’s Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Those are the 3 Mets that made the list.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:12 am : link
was told by a high level prospect evaluator "I'd move Mauricio if they can land a solid/good SP". He thinks Mauricio has a long way to go to be an offensive force at the MLB level. Doesn't think Mauricio makes high level "swing decisions" and acknowledged his upside but said "he's a good not great athlete and the feeling is the 2021 power covered up some pretty glaring flaws. Don't shoot the messenger.
BP's  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:14 am : link
list drops tomorrow. Their top 3 prospects (in no particular order) are as expected... Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr.
I'm actually a bit surprised...  
moze1021 : 1/19/2022 10:16 am : link
that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..
RE: I'm actually a bit surprised...  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:20 am : link
In comment 15560641 moze1021 said:
Quote:
that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..


#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball
RE: I'm actually a bit surprised...  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:22 am : link
In comment 15560641 moze1021 said:
Quote:
that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..


Baty wasn't particularly "great" in AA either. His ranking seems fair to me. 118 wRC+ 5 homers over 40 games.
RE: I  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:23 am : link
In comment 15560629 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
was told by a high level prospect evaluator "I'd move Mauricio if they can land a solid/good SP". He thinks Mauricio has a long way to go to be an offensive force at the MLB level. Doesn't think Mauricio makes high level "swing decisions" and acknowledged his upside but said "he's a good not great athlete and the feeling is the 2021 power covered up some pretty glaring flaws. Don't shoot the messenger.


I tend to agree with that evaluation from everything I've read/seen with him. I could see his career going either way. Take out the defensive positions, and he could end up turning into a Chisolm type (with less speed). But I was really critical of the Marlins for the Gallen for Chisolm deal, because I admittedly have a bias against those speed/power players with a questionable hit tool. More times than not those players do not reach their upside.

Alvarez  
GF1080 : 1/19/2022 10:23 am : link
If Alvarez continues this trajectory it wouldn't surprise me if he is #1 on 2023 lists. Top 5 at worst.
RE: RE: I'm actually a bit surprised...  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:25 am : link
In comment 15560652 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15560641 moze1021 said:


Quote:


that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..



#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball


#2 or #3 best CATCHING prospect. BA has him 3rd.
RE: RE: I'm actually a bit surprised...  
moze1021 : 1/19/2022 10:26 am : link
In comment 15560656 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15560641 moze1021 said:


Quote:


that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..



Baty wasn't particularly "great" in AA either. His ranking seems fair to me. 118 wRC+ 5 homers over 40 games.


Good point.
RE: RE: I'm actually a bit surprised...  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:29 am : link
In comment 15560652 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15560641 moze1021 said:


Quote:


that Alvarez and Baty aren't ranked better...

I suppose Baty's power didn't really show up in his 25 AFL games.. maybe that was a part of it..



#13 for a just turned 20 year old with just over 100 career games played (none above A+) is extremely high praise. Especially at a position with a very high bust rate. MLB.com had him 10th. He's regarded by most as the #2 or #3 best prospect in baseball


Yeah, it's a pretty loaded top 15 too. Don't have access to BA, but you have Witt, Rutschman, Rodriguez, Grayson Rodriguez, Greene, Torkelson, Baz, Moreno, Davis, Abrams, Luciano, Hunter Greene, Volpe, etc. No shame in Alvarez being anywhere there.

I wouldn't give up any of their better prospects unless it returns  
Eric on Li : 1/19/2022 10:32 am : link
a player who has received CY votes. If that type of player is on the table then I'd consider give up one the top 6-7. I don't like all of those top 6-7 evenly but I do think all of them profile to be worthy impact players. In most cases I think I'd trade Dom before I trade any of these guys. Not mcneil though - he's too valuable/unique of a player. I think i'd give up Mauricio before McNeil.

Alvarez may be on a whole other level from any prospect they've had recently - and they've had some good ones obviously. Seems rightfully untouchable given position.

Baty seems like he will be a lot like Conforto. A solid hitter.

Vientos may be considered riskier than the others but the bat has Alonso upside (he also was never that highly rating by the scouting services until he had that huge final AA/AAA year in the minors).

Mauricio seems a lot like Rosario in that so far he's more tools than production so he might be the one I'd trade. But the tools are loud, he may shift to a position of greater need, and he is still young (entering his A21 year).

Who knows what the 2 SP will be but they simply can't afford to trade any good arms in the system right now.

Not sure if internally they'd consider either of Ramirez or Dominguez in that group.
RE: Alvarez  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:35 am : link
In comment 15560661 GF1080 said:
Quote:
If Alvarez continues this trajectory it wouldn't surprise me if he is #1 on 2023 lists. Top 5 at worst.


I've seen him on top 5 on some lists. A lot of it's subjective. Alvarez has 0 speed, and a bad body. Don't get me wrong, I am excited about him, and consider him to be untouchable (save for a Soto type), but a lot of those prospect rankings favor more toolsy players. I've found BA does a lot. Alvarez has 0 speed, and has struggled some with his defense (though it is obviously early on that)
No  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:37 am : link
inside information but Seidler has been hinting the BP list will be high on Alvarez/Baty but major ?? regarding Mauricio's hit tool.
RE: No  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:38 am : link
In comment 15560689 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
inside information but Seidler has been hinting the BP list will be high on Alvarez/Baty but major ?? regarding Mauricio's hit tool.


To add to that, the list is made by the entire staff of BP, I know Eric doesn't care for Seidler/thinks he's a hater so just clarifying that he's simply hinting what might be in tomorrow's piece/list.
BP  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:39 am : link
ranked the Pirates system #1 in baseball. Imagine they had a better owner...
I really am looking forward to  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:41 am : link
the Mets prospect rankings after the upcoming draft. Between the two international OFs, the two 1st rounders, and the likely 3 2nd rounders/comp picks (assumes Conforto signs elsewhere), their top prospect rankings should start looking a whole lot better.
I know their list is behind  
pjcas18 : 1/19/2022 10:42 am : link
a pay wall, but is there anywhere it's been published freely?

If not, curious about if there are any ex-Mets prospects on the list.

Also curious on the top 25. if anyone can share.

thank you in advance.
IF  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:43 am : link
MLB allowed Cuban (Pittsburgh native no less) to buy the Pirates that would be a fun team. Good fanbase, great ballpark.
I have no issues with Seidler's opinion on prospects  
Eric on Li : 1/19/2022 10:45 am : link
that's his job so presumably he spends a good deal of his time doing that.

I think he has zero credibility on pretty much every other narrative he drives about the mets org, which are mostly in areas in that have little to do with his job.
I've  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:47 am : link
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3
Mariners 5  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:50 am : link
Jays 3, Yankees 3, Boston 4
RE: I've  
pjcas18 : 1/19/2022 10:51 am : link
In comment 15560705 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3


Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.

RE: I know their list is behind  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:53 am : link
In comment 15560698 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
a pay wall, but is there anywhere it's been published freely?

If not, curious about if there are any ex-Mets prospects on the list.

Also curious on the top 25. if anyone can share.

thank you in advance.


I suspect the only ex-Mets prospect you will find on there is SWR. I have not found anything on where he is ranked, though have seen him around 55-60 on others.
RE: RE: I've  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 10:55 am : link
In comment 15560718 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15560705 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3



Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.


Cubs have 2 on the list, per Dan. PCA is about their 5th best prospect, so won't be on there. Kelenic graduated. Wolf/Greene aren't going to be on any top 100 prospect lists
RE: RE: I've  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:56 am : link
In comment 15560718 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15560705 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


yet to see any one site post the entire list. Pittsburgh has 6, Baltimore has 5, Nats have 3, Cubs 2, Braves 3, Rays 5, Tigers 3, Cardinals 3



Thanks, were any ex-Mets on the list like Kelenic or did he graduate? SWR? PCA? Wolf? Greene? I doubt anyone other than Kelenic, maybe SWR, but curious.


Kelenic graduated, PCA didn't make it (the Cubs had 3). SWR had an era near 6 this year and also did not make it.
One  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 10:58 am : link
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.
RE: One  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 11:04 am : link
In comment 15560728 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.


I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?
RE: RE: One  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:13 am : link
In comment 15560737 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15560728 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


the Mets let "get away" that could be very intriguing is Denzel Clarke. He's 6'5-6'6 with above average speed who may stick in CF. They took him out of HS but couldn't work a deal (he's not on the top 100 list) just an intriguing name.



I see the Mets drafted him in the 36th round out of high school. Was he ever a legitimate possibility to sign with the Mets?


Yes. That was a college heavy top of the draft for the Mets and the feeling was Clarke might be a guy they would be able to throw money at vs. his commitment to CS Northridge. 2 of his cousins are pro players (The Naylor brothers)
2018  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:15 am : link
they took 2 HS players (Kelenic/SWR) over their first 20 picks. Again, not bitching about Clarke, just saw his name pop up as a guy who could rise up lists quickly.
RE: 2018  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 11:25 am : link
In comment 15560757 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
they took 2 HS players (Kelenic/SWR) over their first 20 picks. Again, not bitching about Clarke, just saw his name pop up as a guy who could rise up lists quickly.


Not one to complain about 4th round MLB draft picks, but Clarke certainly does seem more interesting than Schwartz. They could have had him in the 4th in the last draft.
Mets  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:30 am : link
video on new OF IFA signing Simon Juan
Link - ( New Window )
Baty  
Vanzetti : 1/19/2022 11:33 am : link
It seems to me he rose in some rankings because of the high exit velocity he exhibited.

In other words, he is very projectable according to advanced analytics.

His numbers at AA were fine but nothing exceptional.

So, it makes me think some publications are a little more old school than others. They consult analytics but still depend heavily on numbers and eyeball judgments.

RE: Mets  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 11:35 am : link
In comment 15560793 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
video on new OF IFA signing Simon Juan Link - ( New Window )


I've seen comps of him to Springer. We could only get so lucky. Both he and Fanas are reportedly five-tool players, so they certainly look like interesting signings.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:40 am : link
think all 3 rankings are completely fair and I suspect Baty and Mauricio will be a little higher on BP's list but the same 3 names roughly in the same "area".
Kinda  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:45 am : link
curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high
Juan  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:54 am : link
Uribe

Juan Uribe: "Several teams have shown interest in my son, but I would like him to sign with the White Sox because he was born and raised in Chicago and I played for them for five seasons. I love White Sox fans."
RE: Kinda  
Eric on Li : 1/19/2022 11:55 am : link
In comment 15560831 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high


just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.

It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.
Baty write up from CBS  
pjcas18 : 1/19/2022 11:58 am : link
he was their 14th ranked prospect *for 2022*

Alvarez was 7th.

Quote:
14. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (Age: 22)

Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.


Link to full list
link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Kinda  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 11:58 am : link
In comment 15560860 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15560831 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


curious how close Vientos was to making this list and BP's (tomorrow). It wouldn't blow my mind to see Vientos make the tail end of the BP list though traditionally a player viewed as a 1B/DH profile needs a longer record of hitting at a high level to be ranked particularly high



just looked up Alonso, he only made top 100 lists pre-2019, so his entire time in the minors he wasn't ranked. All 3 had him ranked between 40-51. Law had him at #90 but said he thought he was a DH.

It's kind of crazy to me that the entire job of projecting prospects is based on upside and they all missed how much upside Alonso had in his bat - even after his 2018 + AFL performance. The same seems true of Vientos now.


JD Davis was a 3rd round pick, hit throughout college, .890 OPS in the minors but because he was viewed as a likely 1B/DH (despite an arm good enough to pitch) never cracked BA's list.

.292/.365/.526 career minor league hitter (2.94 era in college over 36 appearances, I wonder why they don't consider him a potential "2 way" guy even if the pitching is as a mop up type.
RE: Baty write up from CBS  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 12:04 pm : link
In comment 15560869 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
he was their 14th ranked prospect *for 2022*

Alvarez was 7th.



Quote:


14. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets (Age: 22)

Some evaluators in the industry expressed skepticism when the Mets drafted Baty 12th overall in 2019. Their criticism had less to do with him as a player and more to do with his age, as he was hurtling toward his 20th birthday despite being a high-schooler. Baty did well to quiet concerns in his first full pro season, batting .292/.382/.473 with 12 home runs and 22 doubles across High- and Double-A. Baty's boosters see a strong-bodied third baseman who could be a plus hitter. There are some areas of concern to keep in mind with him, however, as his strikeout (25.6 percent) and groundball (61.2 percent) rates at Double-A suggest he wasn't maximizing skill set, especially considering his well-above-average raw juice.



Link to full list link - ( New Window )


There is concern that despite excellent exit velocities, Baty's swing isn't conducive to really tapping into his premium power. Seidler said he thinks Baty's "lift" issues are in part due to his approach at the plate

"Fairly common, not easy to overcome but not impossible. Vlad Jr. ran MLB groundball rates nearly this high until this year. Baty’s swing is geared for more loft than he’s shown so far…I think a chunk of it is approach based with him"
Good timing on this thread  
figgy2989 : 1/19/2022 12:09 pm : link
It reminded me I have been meaning to ask you DMM, how would you rank the three top arms they took this year? Ziegler (2nd), Hamel (3rd) and Scott (4th). I know Hamel and Scott are college arms and should should have similar projections through the system that Orze went through.

I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.
Sorry, Scott was in the (5th), Schwartz was the 4th rounder  
figgy2989 : 1/19/2022 12:10 pm : link
.
RE: Good timing on this thread  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15560895 figgy2989 said:
Quote:
It reminded me I have been meaning to ask you DMM, how would you rank the three top arms they took this year? Ziegler (2nd), Hamel (3rd) and Scott (4th). I know Hamel and Scott are college arms and should should have similar projections through the system that Orze went through.

I am curious about Ziegler, Canadian who moved to the states for his senior year to play HS ball in Florida.


I could lie and act like I know much about Ziegler outside of the public scouting but a large portion of his draft helium came in the form of workouts where his velocity apparently was sitting more in the mid-90's range vs. the low 90's it sat previously. He's a smallish RH from Canada so he's behind the 8-ball BUT those in the know like the live arm, clean delivery and makings of a plus slider. Odds are it's a RP profile but who knows?

Hamel almost certainly was an "analytics dept" pick. Teams that leaned more heavily on their analytics dept vs. pure scouting liked Hamel far more than scouting based teams. All 3 of his pitches have plus spin. He's also already 23 in March. I think there is a real chance he's a top 8-10 prospect in the system come this time next year and I'd probably rank him no lower than 4th in terms of SP (Allan, Ginn and then Ziegler/Hamel) toss-up. I'd probably lean towards Hamel even with the age difference.

Scott is an interesting one. Personally, I'd like to see them allow him to start but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards so he's 95-98 with a good, sometimes plus slider. They haven't traditionally done well with college pick relievers so "wait and see".
As  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 12:23 pm : link
for Orze. I'd bet he sees Queens this year... after 3 bouts of cancer. Amazing.
Awesome Dan  
figgy2989 : 1/19/2022 12:32 pm : link
You are the man, thank you! Yeah Ziegler was a real enigma and can't find much on him outside of like you said some of the scouting reports. Kind of expected with Hamel and Scott, hopefully they move up quickly. Scott more so because of his arm and potentially being utilized out of the pen!

That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.
RE: Awesome Dan  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 12:51 pm : link
In comment 15560932 figgy2989 said:
Quote:
You are the man, thank you! Yeah Ziegler was a real enigma and can't find much on him outside of like you said some of the scouting reports. Kind of expected with Hamel and Scott, hopefully they move up quickly. Scott more so because of his arm and potentially being utilized out of the pen!

That is great about Orze, he did move through the system pretty quickly considering two pandemic type seasons. He is a great story and really pulling for him.


Any time. Ziegler is something of a mystery even to the scouting community for a variety of reasons (Covid, Canada, pop-up velocity etc)
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 1:57 pm : link
Joseph Langan
@JosephLangan2
Ronny Mauricio took a significant hit on @BaseballAmerica
’s top 100 prospects list. Moving from number 65 in the pre-2021 ranking to number 92 in the pre-2022 ranking. The one main reason, pitch selection. 2022 will be a critical year for Mauricio and his future with the Mets.
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