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NFT: BA Mets Top 100

GF1080 : 1/19/2022 9:35 am
Baseball America Top 100 Updated Rankings:

#13 Francisco Alvarez
#39 Brett Baty
#92 Ronny Mauricio

Thought Vientos would sneak in as well.
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You called it Dan  
figgy2989 : 1/19/2022 2:02 pm : link
He is still a top 100 prospect, but once you are in the top 100, the microscope gets a little larger. I don't remember seeing the reason, but didn't he leave the winter league early and was hitting like crap?

I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.
RE: You called it Dan  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15561091 figgy2989 said:
Quote:
He is still a top 100 prospect, but once you are in the top 100, the microscope gets a little larger. I don't remember seeing the reason, but didn't he leave the winter league early and was hitting like crap?

I am in no rush to trade him unless the right package presents itself. You just really hope these arms start to develop. When Allan does come back, hopefully he picks up right where he left off.


Mauricio held his own given his age in winter ball (.244/.277/.367 2 homers, 3 walks 21 k's) but was eventually cut from the team. Keep in mind, they take these games very seriously and he was the youngest player on the team. 2nd youngest regular was 23. Mauricio has a low floor and high ceiling, the gap is far larger than their other top tier prospects (I'm not going to include Matt Allan because major surgery/yet to pitch... nearly impossible to judge)
RE: As  
KDavies : 1/19/2022 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15560918 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
for Orze. I'd bet he sees Queens this year... after 3 bouts of cancer. Amazing.


So Orze is expected to be a reliever? For some reason, I thought he would be stretched out as a SP. Might be thinking of someone else, or mistaken.
RE: RE: As  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 2:23 pm : link
In comment 15561119 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15560918 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


for Orze. I'd bet he sees Queens this year... after 3 bouts of cancer. Amazing.



So Orze is expected to be a reliever? For some reason, I thought he would be stretched out as a SP. Might be thinking of someone else, or mistaken.


Orze has been viewed as a RP since he was drafted. Only 4 starts in college (in part due to illness) but used as a short man as a pro and no indication they intend to change that. I've heard Christian Scott suggested as a potential SP but not from anybody connected with the team.
Sorry  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 2:23 pm : link
looks like 2 bouts of cancer and one cancer scare.
Per  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 3:41 pm : link
Martino the Mets blocked the Phillies from talking to Zauzmer and per Sherman the Mets had considered Jason Lefkowitz as assistant hitting coach but he won't be the hire.
RE: Per  
Eric on Li : 1/19/2022 4:14 pm : link
In comment 15561269 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Martino the Mets blocked the Phillies from talking to Zauzmer and per Sherman the Mets had considered Jason Lefkowitz as assistant hitting coach but he won't be the hire.


the Stearns rumors will probably never go away until he signs his next deal but it wouldn't shock me if things go well if Eppler gets promoted up to President and Zauzmer goes up to GM. Something like that was clearly the intent with Porter and Scott last year so I guess we learned from that how quickly things can change but I'm not so sure Stearns comes into play again if things go better this time around.
Anthony  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 4:56 pm : link
Franco of MLBTR doesn't think the Mets would move McNeil for Lauer but maybe JDD for Lauer and a smaller piece. I'd 100% do JDD and a secondary small piece for Lauer and Suter or Cousins.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 5:12 pm : link
Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder.
perfect target for JDD  
Eric on Li : 1/19/2022 7:12 pm : link
FG says he has 1 option left and if so he'd fit perfectly with Megill/Peterson and maybe Trevor Williams as depth arms. No way for McNeil though. Low velocity flyball pitcher with a .249 BABIP despite below average exit velocities against seems ripe for some overall regression.
RE: perfect target for JDD  
DanMetroMan : 1/19/2022 9:02 pm : link
In comment 15561494 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
FG says he has 1 option left and if so he'd fit perfectly with Megill/Peterson and maybe Trevor Williams as depth arms. No way for McNeil though. Low velocity flyball pitcher with a .249 BABIP despite below average exit velocities against seems ripe for some overall regression.


To be clear I’m 100% agreeing with you but to add Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder. If Peterson did that (they are the same age) he’s be deemed “untouchable” by many. Would love to somehow land both Lauer and Suter or Cousins but Lauer would be a nice grab either way
Do you all  
pjcas18 : 1/19/2022 9:21 pm : link
think trade discussions are privately happening among teams so when the lockout ends it will be like a trade deadline/opening of free agency bonanza trying to get shit done before spring training?

RE: Do you all  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 1:13 am : link
In comment 15561595 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
think trade discussions are privately happening among teams so when the lockout ends it will be like a trade deadline/opening of free agency bonanza trying to get shit done before spring training?


Yes - but the trade market will be intertwined with FA though so that’s the part that’s probably harder to anticipate now (if there are discussions happening) - which is why Boras wanted to do his deals ahead of time. It is going to be a fun week or two once this all gets resolved.
RE: .  
Vanzetti : 1/20/2022 2:04 am : link
In comment 15561384 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Laurer was completely dominant second half. 11 (12 appearances) starts .193/.255/.314 (2.60 era), 9.1 k/9. Sure looks like he "figured it out" again he's only 26 years old and a former 1st rounder.


I would do McNeil for Laurer. To me, he seems like a guy who can be that 4th starter but also has potential upside. Isn't that what Mets should be looking for?
Interesting  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 8:04 am : link
WME may decertify in order to buy minor league teams. This may explain why Eppler left and why Correa suddenly left for Boras. Not really Mets related but interesting.
Heyman  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 8:10 am : link
Mets great Edgardo Alfonzo has been hired now as manager of the new Staten Island Ferry Hawks of the Atlantic League
RE: Heyman  
pjcas18 : 1/20/2022 8:14 am : link
In comment 15561757 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Mets great Edgardo Alfonzo has been hired now as manager of the new Staten Island Ferry Hawks of the Atlantic League


Love to know why the Mets couldn't find a way to keep him around.

I think that's the team where a bunch of SNL guys (Pete Davidson, Michael Che, maybe others) are part owners.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 8:15 am : link
@baseballpro ranks 3 @mets in their top 100. Alvarez (10), Baty (13), and Mauricio (51)

Witt Jr. comes in at #1
Sorry  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 8:19 am : link
top 101 lol
RE: .  
KDavies : 1/20/2022 10:25 am : link
In comment 15561765 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
@baseballpro ranks 3 @mets in their top 100. Alvarez (10), Baty (13), and Mauricio (51)

Witt Jr. comes in at #1


Very interesting. A stark difference with Baty and Mauricio vs. BA. I do think that's a little high on Baty. Not a knock on him, just on how much I like other prospects.

I know I'd put Marte and Volpe before Baty. Probably Hunter Greene and Max Meyer as well.
Ex-Met  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 10:49 am : link
32nd rounder George Kirby coming in at 21
placement on the top 100 lists is kind of irrelevant outside top 5-10  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 11:15 am : link
the few phenoms are obviously on a whole other level (Tatis, Vlad Jr., etc) the rest is like arguing the NFL100 each offseason. Extremely circumstantial and subjective. And not all that predictive towards the next year.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 11:20 am : link
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs


Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 11:33 am : link
In comment 15562175 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
BREAKING: Crushing news out of Fayetteville as @RazorbackBSB
projected Friday night starter and RHP Peyton Pallette will miss the 2022 season with a UCL injury that will require Tommy John surgery. The #Hogs were No. 2 in our preseason rankings on Monday. #WPS #Hogs


Potential top 10 pick. Joins Reggie Crawford as potential high picks that will miss the season. Both names to watch given @mets large bonus pool #Mets


getting top pitching talents at a discount seems like a good strategy. if the are pitching at all in 2023 they arent even missing that much development time. theres a good chance they eventually need surgery like allan anyway so may as well take the slight discount like they did with ginn.
Not  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 11:35 am : link
looking to debate Matt Harvey but he looks to be in incredible shape
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Not  
KDavies : 1/20/2022 11:44 am : link
In comment 15562221 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
looking to debate Matt Harvey but he looks to be in incredible shape Link - ( New Window )


The bridge may be burned, but I'd take him on a minor league deal
RE: RE: Not  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 11:46 am : link
In comment 15562254 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15562221 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


looking to debate Matt Harvey but he looks to be in incredible shape Link - ( New Window )



The bridge may be burned, but I'd take him on a minor league deal


Eppler did sign Harvey in 2019... just saying! lol
id have no issue bringing harvey back  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 11:49 am : link
it's really sad what happened to his career and it was likely at least in part from trying to win the WS here.
Harvey  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 11:52 am : link
quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9
agreed about putting him in the bullpen  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 11:55 am : link
i dont know why more starters don't try that later stage (like McHugh). Velocity gains and only once through hitters seems like a very good way to boost career viability if a player is barely hanging on to a regular turn.
RE: id have no issue bringing harvey back  
JB_in_DC : 1/20/2022 12:00 pm : link
In comment 15562266 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
it's really sad what happened to his career and it was likely at least in part from trying to win the WS here.


Will always have a soft spot for Matt.
RE: agreed about putting him in the bullpen  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 12:03 pm : link
In comment 15562283 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
i dont know why more starters don't try that later stage (like McHugh). Velocity gains and only once through hitters seems like a very good way to boost career viability if a player is barely hanging on to a regular turn.


Valid question. Harvey (for example) still sat 93.2 as a SP, not crazy to believe he could find 1-2 MPH (at minimum) in 1-2 inning stints.
we all need to cross our fingers the players upcoming proposal  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 12:11 pm : link
moves things forward in a meaningful way.

I expect them to include something re: service time changes, but that may be with the expectation that it will eventually be horse traded out.

the key thing to watch is the LTT. I think the owners not increasing their previous offer is what the MLBPA was disappointed with last week. If the players don't start trying to meet in the middle it's not a serious offer.

with luck they will accept the increases proposed by the owners and build from there with a more reasonable proposed LTT increase ($230-235m?) and nothing superfluous.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 12:13 pm : link
Everything we’ve seen thus far suggests MLB owners want to test the players. That they intend to wait out the players as long as possible, to see if they’ll crack under the threat of losing paychecks.

This lockout strategy at the commissioner’s office appears designed around one goal: minimizing how much owners have to give up. If you, as an owner, wait until the last minute, players might grow impatient, and you can surrender less than you would otherwise. Or if the players totally crumble, maybe you part with close to nothing. And if the players stand tall? Well, at least you didn’t give up any more than you had to, any sooner than you had to.

What ownership’s approach means for players is that if they really want change — if after all these years of complaints about the status quo, the players are serious about achieving their goals — they will have to force owners to make it.
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that's why service time changes likely won't happen  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 12:21 pm : link
i think the players are going to cave on that because it's only a small % of players impacted by it. the majority of players aren't going to pass up more money, in a system they were already reasonably ok with, for that change (imo).

that's why we need to see the MLBPA make a serious counter offer on LTT especially. they may ask for service time changes as leverage but there are other areas where the owners can and will say yes. LTT is easiest, but also arbitration changes, DH, service time manipulation, revenue sharing rules, raising minimums for young players etc.

It would be a great step forward for MLBPA to accept a bulk of what MLB proposed in their last counter offer and started to meet in the middle on LTT.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 1:12 pm : link
Not sure how realistic it is (with the Nationals being the previous Expos franchise) but if Montreal does in fact get an expansion team it would be cool if they were named the Expos and brought back their old uniforms
RE: Harvey  
KDavies : 1/20/2022 1:27 pm : link
In comment 15562272 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9


I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.
RE: RE: Harvey  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 1:43 pm : link
In comment 15562480 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15562272 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


quietly was every bit as good was Walker in 2021. Harvey 4.60 FIP,, Walker 4.57. Of course, Walker showed moments of brilliance first half (and close to unpitchable second half). More than anything else, I think Harvey surprisingly is still a viable (if not filler arm). I'm curious what he might look like coming out of the BP. First time through the order 3.74 FIP, 8.18 K/9



I think Walker's second half was a result of him wearing down. He pitched more innings last year than the previous three years combined.


That may well prove to be true but at the end of the day his FIP (4.57) is basically what he's shown himself to be for his career (4.31) and his savant page paints an ugly picture. For the price/commitment he's a nice player to have but I'm not betting on him being 1st half Walker in 2022. Steamer isn't optimistic (4.72 FIP) nor is ZiPS (4.51). Projections only mean so much so we'll see.
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Arodys Vizcaíno  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 1:45 pm : link
to the Royals. Seemed like he might help the Mets in 2021 but got hurt.
In the first half of his year Walker gave up 5 homers (84 innings)  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 2:20 pm : link
in the second half of his innings (75 innings) he gave up 21 homers. In that first half he allowed 24 earned runs. In the second half he allowed 55. So those extra 16 homers plus the men on base were likely almost the entire difference. So put another way, the overall success of his season was impacted heavily by 16 presumably bad pitches.

For the full season his HR/9 was a little higher than his career average (1.47) and his HR/FB% (14%) was 1% higher than his career average so the question is out of 2021 is clear.

Was he doing something early in the year that is sustainable going forward, or was that a fluke?

In his best season (2017) he averaged less than 1 homer per 9 innings and his HR/FB% was 11% (3% lower). And he did that in Arizona with less average velocity. So there's reason to believe the first half wasn't a total fluke and the reality is he is probably somewhere in between, especially when taking into account innings fatigue.

imo the most important takeaway from last year is that he had really good stuff by the eye test and his velocity was the best it's been post-injuries. At his price he is still a great upside contract. He is entering his a29 season right now and if he finds a way to break through the wall pitch more consistently for a full year he could be this year's version of Gausman/Ray. at his price there's almost no downside as long as he gives them 150 innings like he did last year because even with that level of performance he outproduced his contract.
Carlos  
DanMetroMan : 1/20/2022 2:26 pm : link
Beltran is being eyed by YES to join as a broadcaster.
Seems like a good sign a serious offer is incoming  
Eric on Li : 1/20/2022 6:31 pm : link
Quote:
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association plan to meet Monday, when the union is expected to present a counteroffer to the league’s proposal last week, sources tell ESPN.

This would be the second meeting between the sides since MLB locked out players on Dec. 2.


my guess is they will have arbitration start year 2, include the early FA in limited exceptions (players 29.5), and propose a raise of the LTT to $235m. That should all equate to more than $200m in new $ to the players.
Walker just hit a wall  
ZGiants98 : 1/20/2022 7:11 pm : link
Most people that looked at his innings in recent years predicted he would. The guy had almost no significant time as a SP since 2017. That's a massive layoff. His season pretty much went as expected IMO.

Vientos and Allan were among the 15 who just missed BA top 100  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2022 12:51 pm : link
so that's good news.
.  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2022 8:55 pm : link
Audacy Sports
@AudacySports
· 7h
Brian Butterfield denied role on Mets coaching staff for refusing vaccine. https://audacy.com/sports/mlb/unv
.  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2022 8:56 pm : link
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job
RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2022 9:02 pm : link
In comment 15565952 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job


Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)

“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“
Lol  
DanMetroMan : 1/21/2022 9:03 pm : link
Wait.....Ex-Met Wilmer Flores has a brother named Wilmer Flores who pitches in @tigers system...and those 2 have 2 OTHER brothers named...Wilmer Flores...and their father is named...Wilmer Flores
RE: RE: .  
Eric on Li : 1/21/2022 9:46 pm : link
In comment 15565962 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15565952 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
7m
No vaccination stance costs beloved longtime Buck friend and coach Brian Butterfield a chance at a Mets job



Makes sense to me. Players are one thing but there are actual advantages to hitting the 85%, Butterfield isn’t like adding a Marte (no clue Marte’s vaxx views just an example)

“Relaxed protocols include dropping the requirements for facemasks in dugouts and bullpens, and loosening restrictions on mobility during road trips.“


not hitting 85% last year when most other teams did was the first chink in the armor.
Is that short sighted though  
pjcas18 : 1/21/2022 9:56 pm : link
I mean is vaccination status going to be a thing for the 2022 baseball season?

I don't think it's a huge deal, the guy was going to be a bench coach, right? Not underestimating it but not exactly an irreplaceable skill set IMO, but not sure it should preclude the hire necessarily.
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