Hi all-
Some things happening with the company I am working for. They have asked me to do 3 mock drafts. One after the early-entrant deadline, one after the combine, one prior to the draft. I don't love these because of the variables that change everything in the coming months but they can at least generate discussion.
Will be around most of today and then back tonight if anyone wants to chat back and forth.
Thanks
Post Early Entrant Deadline Mock Draft:
1: JACKSONVILLE – Evan Neal – OT/Alabama
Priority number one for this franchise is seeing to the best effort and allocation of assets to protect their #1 overall pick from 2021, quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Neal played three positions in three seasons at Alabama and will project to anywhere the new coaching staff sees fit.
2: DETROIT – Aidan Hutchinson – DE/Michigan
The culture being built in Detroit did not produce many wins in 2021, but nearly half of their losses were by one score. The biggest margin they need to make up resides on defense against the pass, where Hutchinson fits in like a block both with that blue collar culture and impact on the edge.
3: HOUSTON – Derek Stingley Jr – CB/LSU
Quarterback Davis Mills proved enough as a rookie on a poor team that he can be the guy moving forward, leaving the door open for a true best player available approach by Nick Caserio and his staff. Stingley, a prototype for the cornerback position, will need to prove he is healthy to warrant this spot.
4: NEW YORK (A) – Kavon Thibodeaux – DE/Oregon
No team in the league allowed more points and yards than the Jets. Defensive Head Coach Robert Saleh knows the best way to turn that around starts with the pass rush and knowing his history in San Francisco, they will pump as many resources into their line as possible starting with a premiere talent in Thibodeaux.
5: NEW YORK (N) – Charles Cross – OT/Mississippi State
There is no point in trying to fix anything else until the holes are filled up front with credible talent that can be ready to compete at a high level over the next year or two. Cross can shift to right tackle and appears pro-ready right now with plus size and body control.
6: CAROLINA – Matt Corral – QB/Mississippi
The Matt Rhule era has not gotten off to a quality start both in the win column (10 in 2 years) and when it comes to building the offense. Their quarterback situation needs a solution and Corral fits the mold with arm and athletic talent.
7: NEW YORK (N) – Ikem Ekwonu – OG/North Carolina State
Two picks in the top seven can go one of two directions, spread out the assets or double dip. I choose the latter to help shorten the gap between their offensive line and everything else on the roster with Ekwonu, a tackle-guard hybrid that brings elite talent to the table even though he may not be ready right away.
8: ATLANTA – Kyle Hamilton – S/Notre Dame
It has been 5 years since Atlanta has put out a top-10 defense when it comes to points and yards allowed respectively and they’ve never done it in consecutive years within the Super Bowl era. Hamilton is the kind of the difference maker that can wear multiple hats, all of them at a high level.
9: DENVER – Malik Willis – QB/Liberty
The lack of success Denver has had in the draft at quarterback should not deter them from going after another first round talent. Willis can do it all but simply needs to be seasoned for a year while Drew Lock gets his final shot in his contract year.
10: NEW YORK – Ahmad Gardner – CB/Cincinnati
The Jets double dip on defense to and bring in a corner that has credible shut-down ability. Gardner is a tall and long cover man with the speed and acceleration to run with anyone down the field. He did not allow a single touchdown in college.
11: WASHINGTON - Sam Howell – QB/North Carolina
The pieces are in place on both sides of the ball as Ron Rivera enters year three at the wheel. Although Tyler Heinicke put forth an admirable effort in relief of Ryan Fitzpatrick this past fall, the entire upside of this team is limited by moderate ceiling. Time for them to make their aggressive move at the most important position in the game rather than shopping at the dollar store.
12: MINNESOTA – Andrew Booth – CB/Clemson
The Vikings have pumped a lot of resources into the defensive backfield but the past two years have been horrid against the pass. It is time for them to go out and swing for the fences, using a top-12 selection on an aggressive corner that is dripping with tools.
13: CLEVELAND – Jameson Williams – WR/Alabama
Another year, another first round Alabama receiver that will be ready to contribute right away despite a torn ACL suffered in early January. The Cleveland receivers have a lot of question marks and in order for them to offset and maximize their strong running game, they need a true number one threat.
14: BALTIMORE – George Karlaftis III – DE/Purdue
With how often the Ravens’ defense gets multiple, Karlaftis’ versatility as an outside defender fits in like a glove. They’ve lose some of their personality up front and this heavy-handed, developing edge threat will produce equally against the run and pass alike.
15: PHILADELPHIA – Devin Lloyd – LB/Utah
The Eagles’ defense lacks a true general in the middle of the field and this is the area of the first round where you will see the off-ball linebackers come off the board. Lloyd brings the size, speed, and tenacity to go along with his high-IQ that will get him on the field right away.
16: PHILADELPHIA – Garrett Wilson – WR/Ohio State
Jalen Reagor won’t have many lives left after two disappointing seasons and this front office needs to keep feeding weapons to Jalen Hurts if they want their passing game to catch up to their league-best performance on the ground. Wilson is a natural pass catcher with elite movement skills that can create before and after the catch.
17: LOS ANGELES (A) – Kenyon Green – OG/Texas A& M
The Chargers hit a home run with their selection of tackle Rashawn Slater last year. With a blossoming quarterback on a rookie contract for at least another two seasons, maximizing the protection up front with a versatile mauler like Green would be wise.
18: NEW ORLEANS – Daxton Hill – S/Michigan
Hill could realistically project to safety or cornerback at the next level. His speed and reaction time excels in more zone-based roles, but the versatility here could further elevate the Saints defense to a truly elite unit as they try to piece together their offense again.
19: PHILADELPHIA – Lewis Cine – S/Georgia
If the back end of this Eagles defense can stay up to par with what they produce up front, watch out. Cine blossomed toward the back half of 2021 on the nation’s best defense. He is all over the place and can thrive in an interchangeable safety role.
20: PITTSBURGH – Kenny Pickett – QB/Pittsburgh
Almost seems like a situation that is too good to be true, a story perfect for sports. The Steelers do not have their long time answer at quarterback on the current roster and Pickett surged at the right time as a senior, earning a first round grade.
21: NEW ENGLAND – Chris Olave – WR/Ohio State
Mac Jones did not have a lot of success and consistency throwing the ball downfield as a rookie and part of that reasoning was the lack of true downfield threats. Olave is pro ready right now and will pose as a threat on all levels of the route tree with his quickness, route proficiency, and ball tracking.
22: LAS VEGAS – Tyler Linderbaum – OC/Iowa
A lot is changing with the Raiders but do not forget that this was a playoff team despite numerous serious distractions. Their culture of leadership made the difference and Linderbaum can be the next piece to that puzzle at a spot that needs an upgrade.
23: ARIZONA – Trey McBride – TE/Colorado State
The Cardinals know how important a true threat at tight end is to their offense, as seen with the in-season trade for Zach Ertz who is a free agent this spring. McBride brings the credible every down impact to this offense with an incredibly high ceiling as a pass catcher.
24: DALLAS – Trevor Penning – OT/Northern Iowa
A lot needs to be done with this Cowboys offense that averaged 39 points per game over a four-game stretch toward the first half of the year and 37.5 points per game over a four-game stretch toward the end of the year. Inconsistency was found up front and Penning could realistically project to tackle or guard at the next level.
25: CINCINNATI – Travon Walker – DE/Georgia
Listed at defensive end, Walker can live inside on passing downs to give an already-strong group of Bengals pass rushers a truly elite ceiling. The identity of this defense can complement an offense that appears to be on the brink of the league’s next high-scoring attack.
26: MIAMI – Nakobe Dean – LB/Georgia
The speed at the second level of this defense could use one more upgrade and there is no better option in that department than Dean, a natural leader to any defense he becomes a part of. Him and Jerome Baker will give them a 1-2 punch that can make a true difference week to week.
27: BUFFALO – Treylon Burks – WR/Arkansas
Innovative minds that are willing to keep an open mind to new ways on offense will love what Burks brings to the table. Similar to what we saw out of Deebo Samuel and Cordarrelle Patterson in 2021, Burks can evolve into a versatile threat that feeds off a system that already produces yards and points.
28: DETROIT – Drake London – WR/USC
Even though this front office and coaching staff are on the same page with building this franchise through the trenches, every credible passing game has multiple credible options in the passing game. London was heading toward a record-setting season prior to a foot injury in 2021 and appears to be an ideal complement to Amon-Ra St.Brown in the slot.
29: KANSAS CITY – David Ojabo – OLB/Michigan
The Chiefs have been trying to piece together production from the edge, but the results have been very inconsistent. Bringing in Ojabo, a raw but tools-rich presence should keep that progression track on the way up in coming years.
30: TAMPA BAY – David Bell – WR/Purdue
The system will continue to put weapons around Tom Brady, plain and simple. With Chris Godwin heading toward free agency on a bad wheel and Antonio Brown gone for good, Bell brings in an NFL-ready skill set and intelligence that will suit the passing game well.
31: TENNESSEE – Jahan Dotson – WR/Penn State
It was clear this receiver room lacked depth when AJ Brown and Julio Jones were off the field. Jones long-term status with the club is not known and it further opens the door for Dotson, an inside-out threat with the best pair of hands in the class and a route running skill set that is already better than most pro receivers.
32: GREEN BAY - DeMarvin Leal – DT/Texas A& M
Leal is a versatile threat that moved all over the defensive front in college. While Green Bay appears set along the starting defensive line, they could use one more moveable chess piece to add more consistency to their pass rush.
I love it if no trade downs or moves into 2023.
Love it.
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I would not be opposed to go OL both times. Cross is becoming my early favorite pick for #5.
I noticed you have Ojabo going at 29th. I've seen him mocked all over the place, even to us at #7. Raw but talen-rich as you put it. Do you think he's a guy who you might shoot up your rankings after athletic tests at the Cobmine/Pro Day?
I like how high you have Sam Howell going. He's my favorite QB in this draft. I was kind of hoping the Giants would have a shot at him in Round 2, which is where I've seen other mock drafts have him go. Am I right in thinking Howell's ceiling is higher than any of the other top QB prospects outside of Willis?
Ojabo is one of the guys that could project anywhere right now. The tools are real, he is still very new to the game so his progression scale can be steeper than most if not all prospects. But he was a beneficiary to a ton of single team blockers and I didn't see enough success on the inside shoulder to warrant a top 15 pick.
Exactly. Ojabo is all projection and the Giants can't do that the top of this draft
For the Giants, it reads more like need. Which is more than fine with me.
Also we’ll written, you get to the point.
To me, those are "add water and stir" starters from day one.
For example, do Cross or Ekwonu have a more favorable projection for a particular blocking scheme? Which players toward the top stand out the most as needing to be a scheme fit?
Linderbaum seems to be hyped up as the best interior OL since Nelson, do you see him anywhere near that level?
I'd guess you're a Muma fan, any thoughts on him or Tindall if they are there in rd 2? Both would seem good fits next to Martinez.
The issue some are going to have with Dean is the lack of length. Some teams crossed Patrick Queen and Devin Bush off their boards in recent years. It factors against the pass and blockers respectively.
Dean is going to measure shorter than both.
I am huge on getting at least one very good LB on the field, I prefer 2. If you're asking me, yes Lloyd and Dean can be in play at this moment.
Many overlook how bad the LB play was after Martinez went down. They need a guy next to him that may possibly take over the MIKE role in 2023.
Yes I mixed value and need...all teams do.
Cross and Ekwonu are both top 10 talents, no question.
Linderbaum seems to be hyped up as the best interior OL since Nelson, do you see him anywhere near that level?
I'd guess you're a Muma fan, any thoughts on him or Tindall if they are there in rd 2? Both would seem good fits next to Martinez.
Ekwonu is probably the best athlete among all the OL. He has inside-out experience, he plays big and mean. Yes, he could end up being the first player taken overall.
I like Muma (want to see him at Sr Bowl) and Tindall is a freak athlete. Hasn't picked it up mentally yet.
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Brugler had Ekwonu 1OA in his mock today, do you see that kind of talent / film where he could rise that far?
Linderbaum seems to be hyped up as the best interior OL since Nelson, do you see him anywhere near that level?
I'd guess you're a Muma fan, any thoughts on him or Tindall if they are there in rd 2? Both would seem good fits next to Martinez.
Ekwonu is probably the best athlete among all the OL. He has inside-out experience, he plays big and mean. Yes, he could end up being the first player taken overall.
Ekwonu clearly has talent, but I just seem to get an Ereck Flowers/Leonard Davis vibe watching him and worry about spending a top 10 pick on an OG. Unless they are Quentin Nelson caliber they are almost never worth the opportunity cost (usually there are good enough OG taken later on and you could have used Top 10 pick on another position).
The Giants have one - just one - legit OL they can count on heading into the offseason. That's insane.
"A lot needs to be done with this Cowboys offense that averaged 39 points per game over a four-game stretch ..."?
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In comment 15561510 Eric on Li said:
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Brugler had Ekwonu 1OA in his mock today, do you see that kind of talent / film where he could rise that far?
Linderbaum seems to be hyped up as the best interior OL since Nelson, do you see him anywhere near that level?
I'd guess you're a Muma fan, any thoughts on him or Tindall if they are there in rd 2? Both would seem good fits next to Martinez.
Ekwonu is probably the best athlete among all the OL. He has inside-out experience, he plays big and mean. Yes, he could end up being the first player taken overall.
Ekwonu clearly has talent, but I just seem to get an Ereck Flowers/Leonard Davis vibe watching him and worry about spending a top 10 pick on an OG. Unless they are Quentin Nelson caliber they are almost never worth the opportunity cost (usually there are good enough OG taken later on and you could have used Top 10 pick on another position).
There are issues with Ekwonu that even has biggest supports cannot deny. I think it is possible he won't even be a week 1 starter...may need at least a half-year.
Some make the mistake of watching highlight reels when looking at OL. Can't do that, you must watch every play of at least 4-5 games. If you do that with Ekwonu, you will see some of what we saw with Mekhi Becton. Elite dominance on some plays, very poor control and sustainability on others. Except Ekwonu doesn't have the wingspan and weight Becton did to fall back on.
"A lot needs to be done with this Cowboys offense that averaged 39 points per game over a four-game stretch ..."?
There was a 4 game stretch where they dominated. Averaging 39 points per. And then another 4-game stretch where it was a 37.5 point average.
No other offense in the NFL did that.
Not a fan like some are. It is such a hit or miss with guys like that. I feel they break down sooner and I just don't get behind guys that move their feet the way he does. Not enough ankle flexion.
Go Dawgs...
Regarding Linderbaum, is it the player or the position you'd stay away from at 7?
I think go with a defender with one of them and circle back to interior OL in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Other guy I like is Jermaine Johnson at DE/ER
Sy'56... would you be against taking Malik Willis at 5 or 7 and making him a NYG? If that's the direction the new GM wants to go what do we do with Daniel Jones? Keep him for 1 more year? What would a realistic trade market be for a talented but injury prone and turnover QB like Daniel?
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In comment 15561036 Sy'56 said:
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NYG has a lot of picks in a draft that is incredibly deep because of what Covid did to eligibility.
This is a very good opportunity top build that base that will help this team win in 2023...possibly with a rookie QB at the wheel
Thoughts on day 2 QBs?
I am all about it if you think the value is right. I can say right now Malik Willis in round 2 is an option and even more than that, an ideal look here for NYG. Let him sit, let Jones play out 2022 if the neck clears.
If he plays poorly. goodbye. If he plays well, you have a nice problem on your hands. That and...Willis can still contribute as a package player in 2022. The guy is built like a thick running back
I'd be all in on this.
The Giants have one - just one - legit OL they can count on heading into the offseason. That's insane.
It's risky - rookies struggle on transitioning to the NFL. Don't set expectations too high - even if there are two rookies no matter where drafted, the line is going to have some real bad games during the year. And depth will still be an issue.
Likely, the Giants have no choice but to probably add a C/G in free agency and buy more cap space from 2023 with restructures and at least a swing tackle.
I like Muma (want to see him at Sr Bowl) and Tindall is a freak athlete. Hasn't picked it up mentally yet.
thank you Sy, much appreciated. would be nice to have a freak athlete off the ball for the first time this millennium.
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In comment 15561510 Eric on Li said:
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Brugler had Ekwonu 1OA in his mock today, do you see that kind of talent / film where he could rise that far?
Linderbaum seems to be hyped up as the best interior OL since Nelson, do you see him anywhere near that level?
I'd guess you're a Muma fan, any thoughts on him or Tindall if they are there in rd 2? Both would seem good fits next to Martinez.
Ekwonu is probably the best athlete among all the OL. He has inside-out experience, he plays big and mean. Yes, he could end up being the first player taken overall.
Ekwonu clearly has talent, but I just seem to get an Ereck Flowers/Leonard Davis vibe watching him and worry about spending a top 10 pick on an OG. Unless they are Quentin Nelson caliber they are almost never worth the opportunity cost (usually there are good enough OG taken later on and you could have used Top 10 pick on another position).
and he has a more natural play style than Flowers. If Ekwonu does get himself in the 1OA conversation he will have been evaluated to be a much different class of prospect than Flowers, so what Flowers is at guard would seemingly be a disappointing worst case scenario.
Leonard Davis is a pretty good comp and remember when he went to LG he was pretty dominant. Shawn Andrews was another similar high end pick with position flex and rare power. Maybe neither was plug and play like Nelson but those wouldn't be the worst outcomes at all (especially since the team needs a dominant guard in the worst way). Ekwonu and Neal both have the upside and position flex to fit very well with what the OL room needs.
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Am I missing something, misunderstanding, or is this a typo
"A lot needs to be done with this Cowboys offense that averaged 39 points per game over a four-game stretch ..."?
There was a 4 game stretch where they dominated. Averaging 39 points per. And then another 4-game stretch where it was a 37.5 point average.
No other offense in the NFL did that.
That's what I mean. If their offense was that good, why would they need for a lot to be done in the draft for it?
Thanks for all that you do in this regard. It's some of the best reading on this site and other football sites.
Thanks for all that you do in this regard. It's some of the best reading on this site and other football sites.
No sir, still have a ways to go to finalize grades
The methodology of picking Cross and Ekwonu with the two first picks gives them a lot of flexibility. Cross could play LT if something happens to Thomas and Ekwonu can shift to RT if needed. Need and value mesh up well here.
No expensive toys work without an OL. Without a functioning OL money spent on them is wasted. Shoring up the line will help any QB/RB here and help any rookie qb we bring in after Jones. We can also bring on lower round rb by committee to run into the ground to supplement Barkley or when we let him walk.
The methodology of picking Cross and Ekwonu with the two first picks gives them a lot of flexibility. Cross could play LT if something happens to Thomas and Ekwonu can shift to RT if needed. Need and value mesh up well here.
No expensive toys work without an OL. Without a functioning OL money spent on them is wasted. Shoring up the line will help any QB/RB here and help any rookie qb we bring in after Jones. We can also bring on lower round rb by committee to run into the ground to supplement Barkley or when we let him walk.
You bring up a good point, one I have been pondering with this OL class.
You need guys that can play multiple spots. Have to have it. I like taking OTs and putting them at OG where needed.
Cross and Neal will not be far apart at all. Could end up with the same grade actually.
Neal should start at RT unless a team has two good OTs right away. If it doesn't work, I feel confident he is at least a solid OG.
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How far apart do you see Neal and Cross and is Neal a lock to play tackle or do you think he’s better off inside?
Cross and Neal will not be far apart at all. Could end up with the same grade actually.
Neal should start at RT unless a team has two good OTs right away. If it doesn't work, I feel confident he is at least a solid OG.
Interesting. I really like Cross too. My only fear is I could see Jets striking on him possibly.