...a RB at 2." I had never heard of this supposed rule before the past couple of years on BBI. When was this rule invented?
We all know Saquon's strengths and shortcomings. If, in addition to his existing strengths, Saquon was a bruising between-the-tackles runner and pass-blocked like a left tackle, do you "still not take a RB at 2"?
I also read the same thing about certain other positions - for example, you supposedly can't take a center, or a guard, or a safety, and/or maybe some other position that I'm not naming, too high.
I understand that the difference between elite and other players is larger at some positions than others, but this team needs solid players at many, many positions and I don't think the team should be applying arbitrary rules to rule out certain players at certain points of the draft.
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Barkley is a bad player. A massive scouting miss - and I realize Gettleman wasn’t alone in the error.
It’s on the Ryan Leaf level of mid-scouting.
Barkley isn't a bad player. You're thinking is off.
He absolutely has been years 2-4. Even when not injured, he's been a bad player. Doesn't do anything well at this point. Booker has been far better than Saquon.
It’s on the Ryan Leaf level of mid-scouting.
Jesus, autocorrect is killing me. Should be mal-scouting.
Jim: we will have to agree to disagree.
Does anyone think that Todd Gurley was a bad pick? What about Zeke Elliot or Christian McCaffreey? Barkley might be the last RB to go in the top 10 for a long time, but I think the "RB does not matter" mantra is more relevant to decisions on whether to give any RB a second contract b/c there is hard data that most RB regardless of talent break down at certain age (30) or after certain volume of carries (2000) that it makes no sense to spend big dollars on faster depreciating assets.
I don’t think this makes the point you think it does. How long did Gurley last as lead back with the Rams? Three years? Elliot is sharing carries with Pollard, who’s been at least as effective. Where did they draft him? And McCaffery hasn’t played all year.
RBs sell jerseys. Drafting them high is a misallocation of resources.
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Does anyone think that Todd Gurley was a bad pick? What about Zeke Elliot or Christian McCaffreey? Barkley might be the last RB to go in the top 10 for a long time, but I think the "RB does not matter" mantra is more relevant to decisions on whether to give any RB a second contract b/c there is hard data that most RB regardless of talent break down at certain age (30) or after certain volume of carries (2000) that it makes no sense to spend big dollars on faster depreciating assets.
I don’t think this makes the point you think it does. How long did Gurley last as lead back with the Rams? Three years? Elliot is sharing carries with Pollard, who’s been at least as effective. Where did they draft him? And McCaffery hasn’t played all year.
RBs sell jerseys. Drafting them high is a misallocation of resources.
I think you missed my point. I am not trying to argue that taking a RB in the top 10 is a good idea, but how many "analysts" criticized those teams for drafting those RBs in the top 10? There is some recency bias in the way the media bashes the Barkley pick and that is the result of analytics community gaining acceptance in NFL circles more than Barkely as a player. If he was drafted in 2015, no one would say he was a wasted pick.
The Cardinals traded Rosen for a second and a fifth. Could we get that for Barkley?
Drafting Rosen worked out better for Arizona than drafting Barkley worked out for us.
Drafting Rosen probably wouldn't have worked out for us though - because we chase lost causes, as evidenced by Jones and Barkley.
Wrong again Terps. Barry Sanders also was really good about avoiding contact.
Barkley is a winning player. But the problem is his QB is a losing player, most of his line for most of his career has been losing players, the receivers playing with him have been losing players, and Evan Engram is hella a losing player.
Go back to the Steelers game beginning of last season. He's the only guy Tomlin respected on our offense. The only one.
The problem isn't Barkley. It's everyone around him, and the fact that he's been hurt a lot, and it's taken awhile to get his legs back.
Saying Barkley stinks is like saying Hakeem Nicks stunk. He didn't stink, he got hurt. Only in Barkley's case he doesn't have any help on offense whatsoever.
It's a DC's dream to only have to focus on stopping one guy. Literally the easiest game planning in the world. And peiple that think Barkley can't pass pro haven't really been watching him at all this season.
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Rosen over Barkley? You are kidding right?
The Cardinals traded Rosen for a second and a fifth. Could we get that for Barkley?
Drafting Rosen worked out better for Arizona than drafting Barkley worked out for us.
Drafting Rosen probably wouldn't have worked out for us though - because we chase lost causes, as evidenced by Jones and Barkley.
We could've gotten more than that after Barkley's first season, yes.
Barkley's biggest problem on the Giants is who's taking the snap. That's his entire problem. You fix that amd you'll be watching a dynamic threat again.
Derrick Henry 45th pick
Jonathon Taylor 41st pick
Austin Ekeler 30th pick
Dalvin Cook 41st pick
Najee Harris pick 24th pick
How many players would you take over Jonathan Taylor in this draft? Not more than 5 for me.
Maybe they all stink.
I can't wait until whomever is hired tomorrow rebuilds this entire roster. I figure in three years one, maybe two of the 53 that started 2021 will be left.
Barkley's biggest problem on the Giants is who's taking the snap. That's his entire problem. You fix that amd you'll be watching a dynamic threat again.
LOL. Imagine actually believing this.
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But if your evaluation is that the QBs available to you aren't great and the RB is, you don't take the QB, you have to trust your eval.
Barkley's biggest problem on the Giants is who's taking the snap. That's his entire problem. You fix that amd you'll be watching a dynamic threat again.
LOL. Imagine actually believing this.
Well it's true Dave. Sorry you can't see it. There's a lot of reasons why players underperform in the NFL at times.
For Saquon, it's been a confluence of reasons. It was injury-based, but since Jones has been drafted, it's that defensive coordinators know Jones can't beat them. They just target stopping Saquon.
Saquon will be a phenomenal player again when the Giants have balance or when he's on a team that does.
And a lot of people were saying OBJ sucks and is done with Cleveland.
And I'm not saying he's pre-injury OBJ, but he has 6 scores in his past 8 games. He had zero in the half a season with the Browns and Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. The talent around you matters, no moreso than who the QB is.
Daniel Jones is the bust. Saquon already showed he can go for 2000 scrimmage yards, but he had Eli Manning, even in his declined form, was still a quick processor and decision-maker, unlike DJ.
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In comment 15563587 allstarjim said:
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But if your evaluation is that the QBs available to you aren't great and the RB is, you don't take the QB, you have to trust your eval.
Barkley's biggest problem on the Giants is who's taking the snap. That's his entire problem. You fix that amd you'll be watching a dynamic threat again.
LOL. Imagine actually believing this.
Well it's true Dave. Sorry you can't see it. There's a lot of reasons why players underperform in the NFL at times.
For Saquon, it's been a confluence of reasons. It was injury-based, but since Jones has been drafted, it's that defensive coordinators know Jones can't beat them. They just target stopping Saquon.
Saquon will be a phenomenal player again when the Giants have balance or when he's on a team that does.
And a lot of people were saying OBJ sucks and is done with Cleveland.
And I'm not saying he's pre-injury OBJ, but he has 6 scores in his past 8 games. He had zero in the half a season with the Browns and Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball. The talent around you matters, no moreso than who the QB is.
Daniel Jones is the bust. Saquon already showed he can go for 2000 scrimmage yards, but he had Eli Manning, even in his declined form, was still a quick processor and decision-maker, unlike DJ.
Saquon has had exactly one good year in the NFL; his rookie year. His struggles are mostly his own. Not Daniel Jones'. Barkley's dancing around the line and inability to find the correct lanes and holes to run through are not entirely on the OL. The OL is a much better run-blocking unit than they are a pass-blocking unit.
Barkley was not 'touched by the hand of God.' He's not an elite player. He can't block worth a shit. He's been exposed.
Maybe they all stink.
I can't wait until whomever is hired tomorrow rebuilds this entire roster. I figure in three years one, maybe two of the 53 that started 2021 will be left.
I haven't said DJ is good and held back by the players around him. Others have, but not me. I agree with you on your eval of DJ.
I don't think he'll ever get there. Saquon has already proven his ability at the NFL level, though. The only things that changed is who is starting at QB, the injuries, and the OL. If you want to say that the injuries have rovbed him of his abilities, at least it's a more sensible reason (one with which I don't agree), than just, "he sucks." He doesn't suck, he's had one of the great offensive seasons by a Giant in their history. He'll come around, with us or someone else, unless ge suffers another major injury, which I pray doesn't happen.
He can't block for shit. But you were one of the DG defenders on here for years, so I'm not surprised.
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Can pass block. You don't know what you're talking about, and are relying on an opinion from 4 seasons ago.
He can't block for shit. But you were one of the DG defenders on here for years, so I'm not surprised.
That's not true in the slightest. I criticized the DJ pick at the time it was made. I criticized the trade up for DeAndre Baker at the time. There's been stuff I defended DG on and stuff I criticized him for. I thought DJ was a 2nd round talent type of QB and said so at the time.
I criticized the Golladay signing, too.
I may not have killed him for some things luke others (I've been kind to him about the Solder signing), but I've never been a DG pollyanna.
And I'm telling you Saquon put on a lot of good blitz pickup tape this year. Some good chips, too. The whole thing about him not neing able to perfo in that aspect is a 3-year old trope that is meaningless today.
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Rosen over Barkley? You are kidding right?
The Cardinals traded Rosen for a second and a fifth. Could we get that for Barkley?
Drafting Rosen worked out better for Arizona than drafting Barkley worked out for us.
Drafting Rosen probably wouldn't have worked out for us though - because we chase lost causes, as evidenced by Jones and Barkley.
I'll disagree with this just slightly - only because I do think if the Giants drafted Rosen (or even Darnold) they may have pulled the plug on them similar to what the Jets did last year. The problem with Jones is that he's been just good enough to warrant that he be kept given extra chances, and it's been a curse for this team.
But the argument that Rosen/Darnold should have been drafted over Barkley still holds weight if we presume that those guys have the same failures that they they did with their respective teams. Yea, it's still a bad pick (Josh Allen was obviously the correct choice in hindsight), but Giants would have moved on from them by now and selected a new QB in the 2021 draft (just as the Jets did) AND would also have likely already had another blue chip player on the roster from the 1st round pick that they had to use on Jones in 2019.
It also means that the Giants go into 2022 not even thinking about having to address the QB position. A lot of this is speculation and hindsight, but at the end of the day (setting his injuries aside) everything needed to be almost perfect for the Barkley pick to end up being the best value for the Giants, and the Giants simply were nowhere near close to the perfect situation.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
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Barkley's good and is held back by the players around him, Jones is good and is held back by the players around him...
Maybe they all stink.
I can't wait until whomever is hired tomorrow rebuilds this entire roster. I figure in three years one, maybe two of the 53 that started 2021 will be left.
I haven't said DJ is good and held back by the players around him. Others have, but not me. I agree with you on your eval of DJ.
I don't think he'll ever get there. Saquon has already proven his ability at the NFL level, though. The only things that changed is who is starting at QB, the injuries, and the OL. If you want to say that the injuries have rovbed him of his abilities, at least it's a more sensible reason (one with which I don't agree), than just, "he sucks." He doesn't suck, he's had one of the great offensive seasons by a Giant in their history. He'll come around, with us or someone else, unless ge suffers another major injury, which I pray doesn't happen.
Don't forget scheme and coaching. The whole offense took a nosedive under Judge and staff. I think it's mostly on OL, but clearly the scheme sucked, because we saw the same/worse players have success under even the goofy Shurmur.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
Really? How do you think Saquon looks under someone who actually knows how to use him, like say Sean Payton? It's pretty clear he was overdrafted, but to say when healthy he's not a ridiculous talent is just silly. Who knows what he'd be worth on an actual team with the right scheme.
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He is a soft runner. Afraid to block.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
Really? How do you think Saquon looks under someone who actually knows how to use him, like say Sean Payton? It's pretty clear he was overdrafted, but to say when healthy he's not a ridiculous talent is just silly. Who knows what he'd be worth on an actual team with the right scheme.
Barkley is a ridiculous talent?
You're half right...
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In comment 15563722 kelly said:
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He is a soft runner. Afraid to block.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
Really? How do you think Saquon looks under someone who actually knows how to use him, like say Sean Payton? It's pretty clear he was overdrafted, but to say when healthy he's not a ridiculous talent is just silly. Who knows what he'd be worth on an actual team with the right scheme.
Barkley is a ridiculous talent?
You're half right...
When he was drafted, he was a ridiculous talent. Are you disputing that?
Ah. Maybe, but it was a league consensus that he was a generational talent. I do agree it's absolutely valid to question him being drafted at #2. It was a bad draft choice for us, especially in hindsight. I still love the player though. He (and everyone else on this team) landed in a complete shit situation that's for sure.
Hopefully we've entered a new era where we don't have to rationalize these picks anymore.
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He is a soft runner. Afraid to block.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
Really? How do you think Saquon looks under someone who actually knows how to use him, like say Sean Payton?
probably a couple notches below Kamara, to be honest
Hopefully we've entered a new era where we don't have to rationalize these picks anymore.
I think first we have to stop pretending that the Barkley pick was only ridiculous in "hindsight" when MANY people were pissed off about it even before the draft when the last GM made it painfully obvious he had no intention of doing anything else.
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In comment 15563722 kelly said:
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He is a soft runner. Afraid to block.
7.5 million for that?
Tell me again why we picked up the 5th year option?
Really? How do you think Saquon looks under someone who actually knows how to use him, like say Sean Payton?
probably a couple notches below Kamara, to be honest
Hmm, maybe... but I don't think so. N.O. took Reggie Bush at #2 not all that long ago and I think Saquon is better by a lot. I'm pretty sure SB would be a pretty ridiculous weapon for that NO offense. And obviously different than Kamara.
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in that 2018 draft and comparable to many of the top running backs that are available almost each year.
Ah. Maybe, but it was a league consensus that he was a generational talent. I do agree it's absolutely valid to question him being drafted at #2. It was a bad draft choice for us, especially in hindsight. I still love the player though. He (and everyone else on this team) landed in a complete shit situation that's for sure.
Yeah, I never bought into the generational nonsense. There were RBs picked in the years before him, in his draft year and afterwards that were just as good, if not better.
Always said he was a good player but that was a bad pick. Especially for a team requiring such a deep rebuilding at the time like the Giants. If they couldn't wrap their arms around any of those QBs, they needed to get out of that #2 spot for better value than a RB.
But unfortunately we will be rebuilding again now...
There were many saying don't do it in 2018. It's what loser teams do. And look where we are.
Those old threads make me miss arcarsenal.
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Can pass block. You don't know what you're talking about, and are relying on an opinion from 4 seasons ago.
He can't block for shit. But you were one of the DG defenders on here for years, so I'm not surprised.
Oh shit, I'm beginning to believe that allstarjim was the guy who constantly told Will Hernandez critics that they don't know anything about football. That latest comment of his about Barkley's pass blocking definitely has that ring to it.
Arizona drafted Rosen, realized they missed, and had a shot at Murray. They were able to turn around and trade Rosen for a 2nd and 5th the following year, and draft Murray. Now they're a playoff caliber team.
It's OK to miss at QB because if you have the courage to recognize it quickly you can still move them and get something substantial back. The key is being able to honestly and objectively self scout, and be willing to move on from a sunk cost.
Drafting Barkley was an absolutely catastrophic decision...the worst single draft decision I've ever seen this team make.
In hindsight, Barkley was not a good pick. But catastrophic? I’d say he was at least a better pick than the likes of Cedric Jones, Thomas Lewis, Eli Apple or Ereck Flowers. And if we didnt go Barkley, we would have picked someone like Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield - all of whom would have all made BBI heads explode. In hindsight, we were just screwed.
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In comment 15563616 allstarjim said:
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Can pass block. You don't know what you're talking about, and are relying on an opinion from 4 seasons ago.
He can't block for shit. But you were one of the DG defenders on here for years, so I'm not surprised.
Oh shit, I'm beginning to believe that allstarjim was the guy who constantly told Will Hernandez critics that they don't know anything about football. That latest comment of his about Barkley's pass blocking definitely has that ring to it.
oh yeah, that's right...
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The 1160-ish page range of the forum archives is full of reads on this subject. Speaking of, I wish it were easier to search for stuff. I want it documented: Who's quitting on Eli? - ( New Window )
Those old threads make me miss arcarsenal.
I had completely forgotten about him. That guy was like a reverse compass for determining how things would actually play out.
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You just have to be smart enough to spot that you missed and be willing to move on quickly if the opportunity is there.
Arizona drafted Rosen, realized they missed, and had a shot at Murray. They were able to turn around and trade Rosen for a 2nd and 5th the following year, and draft Murray. Now they're a playoff caliber team.
It's OK to miss at QB because if you have the courage to recognize it quickly you can still move them and get something substantial back. The key is being able to honestly and objectively self scout, and be willing to move on from a sunk cost.
Drafting Barkley was an absolutely catastrophic decision...the worst single draft decision I've ever seen this team make.
In hindsight, Barkley was not a good pick. But catastrophic? I’d say he was at least a better pick than the likes of Cedric Jones, Thomas Lewis, Eli Apple or Ereck Flowers. And if we didnt go Barkley, we would have picked someone like Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield - all of whom would have all made BBI heads explode. In hindsight, we were just screwed.
I don't know how you define thresholds on this point, but i think you can make the argument that truly catastrophic picks are easier to discharge. Barkley is good enough to keep around, and tie up cap, and be disappointed in. If we took Rosen though? Maybe Herbert is our QB now.
Here is one of the most important links, it describes a stat called running success rate. A successful run on 1st down gains 40% or more of the yards needed for a first down, on 2nd down success is getting 50% of the yards necessary for a first down, on 3rd or 4th down it is getting the first down. It turns out this statistic has a far better correlation to winning than total yards, or yards per carry.
https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/11/28/16700670/yards-per-carry-and-other-stats-i-hate-rushing-correlation-success-rate
using that statistic Barkley was at or near the bottom of the league in both his rookie and sophomore seasons. Football outsider has this statistic, but last time I looked it is put behind a paywall... However, I have posted this statistic before it went behind the paywall.
Consistently having successful running plays helps win games. Boom or bust does the opposite. A low rushing success rate but with a number of long plays correlates to losing football.
Barkley's style may produce wonderful highlights, but it is bad if you want to win.
I will readily admit that Barkley combined speed with insane athletic and especially cutting ability. However, he lacked vision even at PSU. Even when he has a hole to squeeze through, he is often looking to cut back for a bigger play. In other words, he never liked taking the yards in front of him. Once DCs saw him in action, they started playing for penetration and disciplined gap control to stop the cutback. Barkley cannot handle penetration, it flusters him. He has been the king of stuffed runs his whole career. He is poor at pass blocking, and he is a poor route runner.
In other words he lacks just about everything you want from a RB that helps you win games. He is not a good RB, never was.
Everybody talks about his 2000 yard rookie season, but much of that yardage came in garbage time. I remember reading somewhere that by their definition over 40% of his yards came in garbage time. So in reality, he rarely showed up when the game was still a contest.
Those who laud his rookie season are remembering the few highlight reel plays. And yes they were spectacular. But there is more to good RB play than being spectacular on 3% of your touches.
when you go to the site, uncheck quarters 4 and 5 leaving only 1, 2 and 3 (that cuts out most of garbage time), and sort by success rate. The Giants are ranked 31st. The teams at the top of this stat are all strong playoff teams.
Rushing success 2021
here is the same stat for 2018, the Giants were 30th with Barkley.
Rushing success 2018
It’s absolutely amazing that the Chargers aren’t in the playoffs.
The rushing success rates of the avg team (49%) and the Giants (44%) aren’t that far apart. It will take a big effort for the team to close that gap but, for the spectator, it means that you need to be really careful about your subjective reactions. That stat basically means that an avg team calls a successful run 10 out of 20 times, and an awful one like the Giants calls it 9 out of 20. That’s hard to calibrate and understand based on viewing. The power of statistics!
2 of the teams the Giants beat - the Saints (hi Sean Peyton, how is life without Drew?) and Panthers - are bottom of the barrel teams offensively. The Saints win looked like a break through to me because they had a winning record but in fact their wins were inflated and the team reverted to their trend afterwards and didn’t make the playoffs.
I linked to the defensive success rates below. Buffalo is #1 v the pass. They are playing KC, which had the #1 overall offensive success rate. This is going to be a classic game this weekend. Really looking forward to it. I like the Bills. They are bringing their high octane offense to play a suspect defense.
Just some thoughts.
2021 Defensive success - ( New Window )
It’s absolutely amazing that the Chargers aren’t in the playoffs.
The rushing success rates of the avg team (49%) and the Giants (44%) aren’t that far apart. It will take a big effort for the team to close that gap but, for the spectator, it means that you need to be really careful about your subjective reactions. That stat basically means that an avg team calls a successful run 10 out of 20 times, and an awful one like the Giants calls it 9 out of 20. That’s hard to calibrate and understand based on viewing. The power of statistics!
2 of the teams the Giants beat - the Saints (hi Sean Peyton, how is life without Drew?) and Panthers - are bottom of the barrel teams offensively. The Saints win looked like a break through to me because they had a winning record but in fact their wins were inflated and the team reverted to their trend afterwards and didn’t make the playoffs.
I linked to the defensive success rates below. Buffalo is #1 v the pass. They are playing KC, which had the #1 overall offensive success rate. This is going to be a classic game this weekend. Really looking forward to it. I like the Bills. They are bringing their high octane offense to play a suspect defense.
Just some thoughts.
2021 Defensive success - ( New Window )
I suggested that it would be better to look at only quarter 1, 2, and 3. By removing quarters 4 and 5 you remove some noise. There are 2 things that happen in the 4th quarter. Losing teams are mostly passing, and defenses are giving up the run. So losing teams running success will go up slightly. Winning teams are trying to run out the clock, and the defense is playing the run. The winning team doesn't care as much about successful runs. So there is noise in anything beyond the 3rd quarter.
If you look at the stat in only the first 3 quarters, the average success rate in 2018 was still 49%, but the Giant's success was 42%. In 2021 the average was 51%, the Giants were at 44%. In both cases 7% below average. In a game of inches, 7% is significant.
Regarding running behind a shit OL... In 2020 the numbers were league average 51%, Giants 48% with largely Gallman running the ball. So yeah, the line matters, but so does the RB...
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In comment 15563027 Go Terps said:
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The 1160-ish page range of the forum archives is full of reads on this subject. Speaking of, I wish it were easier to search for stuff. I want it documented: Who's quitting on Eli? - ( New Window )
Those old threads make me miss arcarsenal.
I had completely forgotten about him. That guy was like a reverse compass for determining how things would actually play out.
I do remember him being aligned with you about Lamar Jackson during that draft though.
Explosive Rushing plays... I think most here will be surprised that the Giants ranked 28th in explosive running plays in 2018.
Explusive Rushing Plays 2018
So not only did Barkley bust at a higher rate, he boomed at a lower rate. Again, it's just that his booms were spectacular.